The Sports Observatory

Panthers RB DeAngelo Williams Put on IR

2010-11-17T12:52:00.000-06:00

The Carolina Panthers have placed RB DeAngelo Williams on IR. This injury was initially called a foot sprain, but it's hard to see how that sort of injury would cost Williams 11 games, so I wonder what the real issue is. This offense is nose-diving anyways.

Fantasy Impact: Williams can obviously be dropped in all re-draft leagues. Jonathan Stewart will resume feature back duties once he returns from his concussion, but it will be Mike Goodson's show until then. Goodson is a weak RB2 this week against the Ravens. Given the overall ineptitude of this offense, it's hard to think of Stewart as anything more than an RB2 when he returns. His talent hasn't gone anywhere and he'll post some solid rushing totals, but he's not going to score much because Carolina won't score much. They'll be using some combination of Jimmy Clausen and Tony Pike under center for the rest of the year. Stewart and Goodson are the only two players worth start consideration in this offense. I don't think you have to drop Steve Smith given what little is left on waivers right now, but he certainly should be on your bench.

Week 11: Waiver Wire

2010-11-16T17:21:00.000-06:00

QB:

Jon Kitna - He might not have been picked up all over, and he might have been dropped after a slow start. He needs to be owned in all leagues as a solid QB2 with QB1 potential in the right matchups. He defied all odds with a monster game against the Giants of all teams, and Jason Garrett clearly had the Cowboys playing in a way Wade Phillips couldn't. He will make mistakes, but he's surrounded by elite talent.

Shaun Hill - With Stafford likely out for the season, Hill will probably start for the remainder of it. He showed no ill effects from the fractured forearm that he was returning from. He profiles similarly to Kitna above, although he will make less big plays due to a weaker arm, but he'll also make less mistakes. He's also surrounded by excellent talent and makes for a solid QB2 down the stretch.

Kevin Kolb - Non-Vick owners are probably starting to drop Kevin Kolb, but all Vick owners would be smart to grab him as one of the few QB handcuffs worth owning. Should something happen to Vick, Kolb would immediately become a low-end QB1.

RB:

Keiland Williams - Williams filled in admirably in week 10's blowout. He's not especially talented, but if Torain and Portis sit out again in week 11, he'll get the bulk of the work for the Skins and be a reasonable RB2.

Mike Goodson - He unquestionable should have been picked up already, but since I didn't get to my waiver wire article last week, I'll profile him here. He's a small-ish scat back who performed well last week. Needless to say, his fantasy value is directly related to the absences of Williams and Stewart. The plan all along has been to get Williams back this week, but his owners would be smart to grab Goodson.

Jerome Harrison - Harrison looked outstanding, although by the time he started getting many carries the game was completely out of hand. Regardless, his skill set is a perfect fit within the Eagles offense, and he would have low-end RB1 value should McCoy get hurt. McCoy owners would be smart to grab him this week to protect their RB1.

WR:

Mike Thomas - The catch heard round the fantasy world made for good headlines, but this is not a guy you want starting on your team on a weekly basis. He does have another nice matchup this week, and he'd make for a solid WR3 option with additional upside if Mike Sims-Walker misses time. Might as well ride out the hot streak the Jaguars passing attack is on.

Nate Burleson - He's a decent stash given the Lions simply can't run the ball effectively, but he's clearly the 2nd fiddle in the offense for obvious reasons. He skill set does fit Shaun Hill better than Stafford, however, and that's why he's worth a shot.

TE:

Jermaine Gresham - Gresham had a huge game, but most of it came in the 4th quarter when the Bengals were passing incessantly. Don't bother.

Rob Gronkowski - It's curious that he played that much more than Aaron Hernandez who's had problems with drops recently. Given how much Brady likes throwing to his TEs this season, he's worth a TE2 stash to see if he overtakes Hernandez in the pecking order.

Week 10: Injury Ward

2010-11-16T16:36:00.000-06:00

QB:

Chad Henne / Chad Pennington - The flying Chads both suffered injuries this week. Henne might return shortly after it was determined that his knee injury is not severe, but Pennington is done for the season, and likely for his career with another throwing shoulder injury. Tyler Thigpen will start in week 11.

Brett Favre - Add shoulder to his growing list of ailments, but it seems like he'll play without any issues.

Kerry Collins - Collins suffered a calf injury, and he might miss some time. Vince Young will likely be healthy in week 11 and should keep the job the rest of the season, barring injury.

WR:

Percy Harvin - Harvin suffered another ankle injury, but given he finished the game, it seems likely that he'll play this week. Still, you should keep an eye on his practice schedule and ensure he's active in week 11.

Hines Ward - Ward was knocked out of Sunday night's game with a concussion, although given his spirits after the game, it seems unlikely that he'll miss week 11, but much like Harvin, keep an eye on the usual outlets and ensure he's ready this week before using him.

Jerricho Cotchery - I have no idea who'd be using him at this point in the season, but he's likely going to miss at least one week with a groin injury. His absence will be good news for both Edwards and Holmes who figure to be targeted more often.

TE:

Jacob Tamme - Tamme suffered a back injury and "could barely walk" after the game, so his status is worth monitoring this week. He's been an excellent addition to all fantasy teams and will hopefully suit up this week, but keep an eye on practice reports.

K:

Mike Nugent - What's with the kicker injuries the last two weeks? Nugent will miss at least this week, and he'll likely miss the season with a knee injury. Nugent was kicked well this year, but you'll have to find someone else for the rest of the year.

Week 9: Injury Ward

2010-11-08T16:05:00.000-06:00

I will only be covering injuries here that will affect their availability moving forward. Guys like Schaub, Roddy White, and Hakeem Nicks are not at risk, given current information, of missing any time. The messed up thing is that I'll be mentioning two kickers here as these guys are owned in many leagues.

QB:

Matthew Stafford - Stafford suffered another injury to this throwing shoulder, and you have to wonder if he was actually 100% when he returned. He was played great the last two weeks, finally cashing in on hype he had heading into the season, but he's likely out for several more weeks now, if not the season. He can be dropped in all formats. Shaun Hill ran the offense well in his absence the first time, but it's looking likely that Drew Stanton will start this week. Downgrade Calvin Johnson slightly, but he's still an every week starter.

Matt Moore - Moore tore his labrum and is out for the season. This crushes Steve Smith's already declining value, and you can no longer start him with Claussen likely taking over again.

RB:

Jonathan Stewart - So much for that. Stewart failed in his first start 2 weekends ago, but he was off to a promising start before a concussion knocked him out of the game. He's likely out at least a week and won't have fantasy value again this season unless DeAngelo re-injures himself.

Ryan Mathews - The lineup pinball is back out again after a strong start to his week 9 game when he re-injured his ankle. The Chargers are on bye in week 10, so he'll have a chance to return in week 11. Speculative owners should consider adding Mike Tolbert just in case.

Chris Ivory - Ivory was running fairly well prior to separating his shoulder, and despite the week 10 bye, he might be out a few weeks. This backfield is a mess until Pierre Thomas returns, if he ever does this season.

WR:

Austin Collie - Collie took the weekly shot heard around the world yesterday, and despite the severity on the field, it seems as though he's escaped a serious injury. He still has a long way to go prior to being able to play this week, however, so keep an eye on him.

K:

Jason Hanson - Hanson suffered a knee injury that seems likely to cost him several weeks, so you can safely cut him for another option. He had looked like a nice 2nd half kicker, but between Stafford's and his injuries, that has vanished.

Stephen Gostkowski - Gostkowski suffered a thigh injury that will likely cost him a few weeks, so you can cut him as well. Gostkowski wasn't having a good fantasy season anyways.

WR Randy Moss Claimed By Titans

2010-11-03T16:50:00.000-05:00

Former Vikings WR Randy Moss was claimed by the Titans today. It's a fairly good fit for Moss because he's got a no-nonsense coach that doesn't tolerate crap from his players, a team that has a chance to make a Super Bowl run, and two quarterbacks that proved with Kenny Britt that they aren't afraid to throw the ball down the field when the situation presents itself. The only bad news is that this is a run-first team, but Moss has no competition for targets with Britt injured.

Fantasy Impact: Because of the run-first nature of the Titans offense, it's not an ideal landing spot for Moss, but he'll probably receive plenty of targets given the lack of receiver talent with Kenny Britt hurt. It's hard to say if this is an indication of Britt's injury severity, but we probably won't find out until the Titans return to practice in week 10. That also being said, it's good news for Moss as he'll have a week and a half to pick up the Titans' offense, so he should have a chance at a more profound impact in his first week. It's fairly positive news for Moss' fantasy outlook, but he's probably more of a WR2 for the rest of the season than the WR1 he was drafted to be.

Week 9 Waiver Wire

2010-11-02T22:33:00.000-05:00

QB:

No one emerged this week. I already profiled Stafford, so hopefully you picked him up and even started him.

RB:

Keiland Williams - It's unclear exactly how badly Torain is hurt, but Williams is the last man standing. James Davis would also play a role, but it'd be mostly Williams' backfield. He's a great speculatory pick.

Tashard Choice - It's hard to nominate the third member of a 3-way RB committee on a team that's falling apart, but there's no question that the Cowboys need to do something at RB. Barber has been completely unproductive, and Felix Jones continues to be unreliable. He's a great stash to see what happens.

WR:

James Jones - As I mentioned in the injury ward column, Donald Driver is out, and Jones is not only going to step into Driver's role, but he's also the 2nd most talented WR on GB. He's normally rather inconsistent, but he's immediately a WR3 and should be a top add this week.

Anthony Gonzalez - He was relatively productive in week 8, and he's still talented enough to be stashed to see how things play out. Once Collie comes back, however, he'll lose his value.

Brandon Tate - Tate has taken over Moss' role as the deep threat, but he rarely gets looks. He posted a great game last week, so it's worth it to see if he can build on it. He's worth a stash, but not a start.

TE:

Jacob Tamme - Tamme perfectly filled the role of Dallas Clark last week, and he should be the top add this week. The guy can play, and he's going to be an every week starter from here on out with Clark out for the season. Grab him.

Week 8 Injury Ward

2010-11-02T22:19:00.000-05:00

QB:

Matt Hasselbeck - Hasselbeck suffered a concussion, but it seems like he'll be ready for week 9. Whether or not he survives the QB-killing Giants defense is a whole different story, however.

Brett Favre - Favre got knocked out of the game with a jaw laceration, but as someone who watched the game, it certainly appeared as though he was concussed. He'll be back in week 9, but you have to wonder how much good he's doing his team at this point.

Vince Young - Young sprained his ankle in some fashion, but we probably won't have any idea as to how severe it is until week 10 after their bye week.

RB:

Ryan Torain - Torain suffered a hamstring injury, and much like Young above, we won't have any sort of clear picture until after Washington's week 9 bye week.

WR:

Kenny Britt - What a screw job. After a 40 point performance on many benches last week, we all plug him in and he injures his hamstring before even registering a catch. Then we come to find out he had hamstring issues all week long. Regardless, it looks like a multiple week and fairly severe injury, but as is the running theme here, we won't know more until after their bye week.

Percy Harvin - The good news about his injury is that it was suffered early in the game and Harvin was productive throughout, but post-game indications are that it will threaten his availability this week. Keep a close eye on injury reports.

Donald Driver - He suffered a setback with his quad, and he is out for week 9. James Jones becomes a quality replacement as he'll take Driver's role.

TE:

Vernon Davis - Another ankle injury, another unknown status until after a week 9 bye.

Week 8 Team by Team Notes

2010-10-29T15:39:00.001-05:00

Arizona Cardinals - Max Hall returned to practice this week, but I'm not sure if Hall or Derek Anderson will start. Regardless of who's under center, Larry Fitzgerald is the only receiver worth playing on this team. Hall may have looked bad, but he's the best bet to get Fitz the ball consistently. Breaston and Doucet's returns will help keep some defensive attention away as well. Wells has been disappointing so far, but he will have a breakout game soon. Given all the byes this week, it's a great week to get him in your lineup. Hightower's mediocre talent is finally getting pushed aside, although he'll still remain relevant on passing downs.

Atlanta Falcons - The big 3 of Ryan, White, and Turner all had their best games of the season in week 7 right before the bye week. Gonzalez has been quite disappointing this year, but unless you have a good backup, it's best to stick with him. The Falcons are on bye this week.

Baltimore Ravens - Joe Flacco has had two straight good weeks, so he's built up some nice momentum heading into the bye week. Unfortunately Boldin is the only receiver on the Ravens worth using. Ray Rice continues to disappoint as a top 5 pick, and judging from last week, McGahee might have taken back goal line duties. The Ravens are on bye this week.

Buffalo Bills - Holy Ryan Fitzpatrick. Not many people saw this coming, but as I mentioned in this week's waiver wire article, Chan Gailey has a history of creating unique offenses based around mobile, but marginally talented QBs. Scouting reports seem to think Fitzpatrick can maintain some level of success over the rest of the season. He's obviously playing out of his mind right now and that won't continue, but thanks to the emergence of Steve Johnson as a big bodied WR who can get open, he has a nice pair of WRs to throw to. Fred Jackson owners smart enough to keep him stashed now have a solid RB3 as it's clear that Jackson will be the featured RB compared to CJ Spiller.

Carolina Panthers - Matt Moore re-energized this offense last week, and it certainly helped that Steve Smith returned as well. David Gettis and Brandon Lafell both had the best receiving yardage games of the season for this team, but expect Smith to regain #1 WR status this week. Gettis and Lafell emerging will only help. DeAngelo Williams is out, possibly for a couple weeks, with a foot sprain. Jonathan Stewart is set to explode in the meantime as the featured RB.

Chicago Bears - The offense has gone to shit, to put it bluntly. The problems are threefold: the offensive line is playing horribly, Cutler hangs onto the ball too long trying to make a play down the field, and Martz hasn't modified the offense to overcome his team's weakness up front. This has all played a part in a swift downfall in what looked like a very promising situation to start the season. Luckily Johnny Knox has remained very consistent from week to week when Cutler has been under center, so he's been a steady WR3. The running game has been a disaster, and it only gets worse for Matt Forte owners as Chester Taylor has taken over as the new goal line back. Forte is now a weak RB2 outside of PPR leagues. The Bears are on bye this week.

Cincinnati Bengals - Carson Palmer has been rather jeckyl/hyde so far this season. He's had 3 amazing games and 3 terrible games. I still don't believe in him as anything other than a QB2, but Terrell Owens' playmaking has indeed helped his fantasy value. Cedric Benson has been chugging along as a solid RB2 all season, and he's the focal point of the offense, so I don't expect that to change.

Cleveland Browns - Peyton Hillis continues to post solid RB2 numbers, and he also continues to be the only player worth discussing here.

Dallas Cowboys - Losing Tony Romo obviously hurts, but Jon Kitna is a solid veteran QB who can help this team win a few games. He's surrounded by talented weapons and has a decent line in front of him. Miles Austin will probably no longer be as explosive with the QB switch, but he should still post solid numbers. Dez Bryant was targeted heavily and has a chance to break out in the 2nd half of the season. Jason Witten was also targeted heavily and will arguably see a slight rise in value with Kitna not looking down the field as much. Roy Williams will probably be impacted the most and shouldn't be started. Felix Jones will likely see more work. With all the good RBs on bye this week, he's a solid RB2.

Denver Broncos - Kyle Orton had a miserable game last week against Oakland of all teams, but he should bounce back somewhat this week against a mediocre SF secondary. Just keep your expectations in check due to the forecast of sloppy weather. Lloyd and Gaffney will remain solid WR3s, but Royal is battling an injury and shouldn't be used. Unfortunately it's starting to look like a lost season for Demaryius Thomas. Knowshon Moreno had another issue with his hamstring at practice this week, and while it looks like he'll play, he's even riskier with the chance for re-injury. I'd only use him if he's clearly better than your other options.

Detroit Lions - With all of its playmakers now healthy, the arrow is pointing back up for this offense. Matthew Stafford returns this week, and while I expect some rust, he's a solid QB1 with the big bye week. Calvin Johnson is off the injury report, so he's set to resume beast mode. Nate Burleson is healthy, and he'll provide a solid secondary target. Tony Scheffler will likely take over as a preferred TE target down the field, so Brandon Pettigrew owners should take note. Jahvid Best isn't 100%, but he's close and should resume being an explosive RB2. I think this offense will be quite good, especially the passing game, in the 2nd half.

Green Bay Packers - Aaron Rodgers has been a bit disappointing after being the #1 fantasy QBs drafted in numerous leagues, but he's still been quite good. The loss of Finley has hurt the explosiveness a bit, as has the nagging injuries that Donald Driver is starting to accumulate. Greg Jennings has benefited by posting his 2 of his best games this year in back to back weeks. James Jones was also quite involved last week, and he makes for an interesting WR3 this week. Brandon Jackson has slowly started to come around, and he's turned himself into a solid RB2 with his recent play.

Houston Texans - With the bye week coming at a perfect time to get AJ some additional rest, Schaub and company are set to embark and what should be an improved 2nd half. Jacoby Jones is healthy, and Owen Daniels posted his best game of the season in week 6. Unfortunately Kevin Walter he has mostly disappeared, but Jones is the better talent and could take the job away. Arian Foster has been lighting it up all season. Kubiak has actually incited some concern saying that Ward will get more touches, but don't over-react to this. I think Kubiak fully understands that Foster has never been a featured RB at the NFL level before, and there's no reason to run him into the ground. There's no concern here as Foster is clearly the superior talent.

Indianapolis Colts - Manning has been dealt some adversity with injuries to both Austin Collie and Dallas Clark. Indy will look to newbie TE Jacob Tamme, Anthony Gonzalez, and Blair White to pick up the slack over the middle while Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon continue to dominate outside the hashmarks. Tamme is not a bad stash to see how he's used, especially since Clark is out for the season. If Gonzalez was healthy he'd be the no brainer replacement for Collie, but that's rarely been the case over the past two seasons. I'd hold off on using him unless you're desperate, even though he does still possess upside. Joseph Addai is out as well, and there is conflicting opinions on whether Donald Brown will suit up. If he's healthy and ready to go, some sort of split will occur between Brown and Hart, making both much weaker RB2 plays. If Brown sits, then Hart might border on RB1 value this week. Keep an eye to see if Brown is active or not before making a final decision.

Jacksonville Jaguars - This offense is still an absolute mess, and only MJD is worth starting.

Kansas City Chiefs - Cassel and Bowe have exploded the last two weeks, but allow me to remind everyone that they faced two of the absolute worst secondaries in football in Houston and Jacksonville. I don't think it's a bad time to sell high on Bowe if someone thinks he's reached his potential as a top WR talent. While I don't doubt his actual talent, my greater concern lies with Cassel. It's possible that he's turned the corner for this team, but I need to see it against a legit secondary before I believe. Thomas Jones has been solid, and as the normal goal line back, he's a solid RB2. Charles did score from 4 yards out last week, but that was after a 70 yard run by Jones that left him winded. A nice bonus for us Charles owners!

Miami Dolphins - This offense has been somewhat of a mess. Henne has been very inconsistent, and thus Marshall has as well. Davone Bess has been a great story and a surprise WR3 this year, and his emergence can only help Marshall in the 2nd half to give the defense someone else to pay attention to. The running game has been non-existent, and both RBs are sharing carries as well. The good news is the schedule is a creampuff one during the playoff weeks, so trying to get Brown or Williams for cheap with an eye on those weeks isn't a terrible idea.

Minnesota Vikings - Brett Favre's ankle is yet again a big story, but it looks like he'll start in week 8. Whether or not he finishes the game is a completely different story, so I wouldn't start him unless you're out of options. His likelihood of starting certainly increases the prospects of solid games from Moss and Harvin, so you can use them like you normally would. Peterson has been his normal beast self all season.

New England Patriots - This offense is starting to warrant some concern, and for good reason. Without a legit deep threat on the roster, defenses are starting to sag in to cover the short and intermediate routes the Patriots are consistently running with the possession receivers, tight ends, and RBs. Aaron Hernandez remains a decent TE1 and Danny Woodhead is emerging as the lead RB for this team, and a solid RB3, but that's about where it stop. Welker is only useful as a WR3 in PPR leagues.

New Orleans Saints - Well, that was the worst Saints game in quite some time. Drew Brees had a pretty terrible game with 4 INTs, including a back-breaking pick 6 with the game on the line. Marques Colston is still an every week WR even though he's been rather quiet, but Sean Payton is so intent on spreading the ball around and getting so many people involved that it's become impossible to rely on anyone else. I think he'd be better off attempting to get Colston and Meachem the ball as much as he can when they pass. Chris Ivory crashed back to earth last week, but he'll remain the lead RB for this offense until Thomas returns. Speaking of Thomas, there's still no timetable on his return.

New York Giants - The Giants have completely turned things around and are arguably the hottest team in football right now. Eli was on fire last week, utilizing Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith to perfection as they shredded the Dallas secondary. Both Nicks and Smith are every week starters. Ahmad Bradshaw has been amazing so far in his first season as the featured RB, but there's concern that he's going to break down given his injury history and lack of experience handling this many touches. It's hard to sell on someone who's had consistent success, but if you can use him to get a more reliable workhorse, it's not a bad idea. His owners should at least try to acquire Brandon Jacobs as insurance. The Giants are on bye this week.

New York Jets - Sanchez has come back down to earth prior to the Jets' bye week, and after an early season hot streak, he has settled back into managing the game. Braylon Edwards has been shockingly consistent as their big play threat, and hopefully the bye week will allow Santonio Holmes to get up to speed in the offense. His snap count has been in the 40% range while Cotchery and Edwards hover in the 80% range. It's only a matter of time before Holmes passes Cotchery as Cotchery is doing very little. LT is going to be spelled a bit more in the 2nd half, and given he's a 31 year old with a lot of carries in his career, it's a great idea, especially since their backup is the ultra-talented Shaun Greene. LT will remain a very solid RB2 moving forward, and with the way the Jets like to run, Greene could work his way back into the fantasy picture as well.

Oakland Raiders - Darren McFadden ruined several fantasy owners on Sunday...both those who played against him and those who sat him after he claimed he was only 70%. Turns out there was a bit of gamesmanship on hand there. Louis Murphy is hurt again, and all Raiders receivers are hands off outside of Zach Miller. Defenses are really keying in on Miller, but you can't sit him as he's the focal point of the Raiders passing attack. It would be nice if either Murphy stayed healthy or someone else emerged to open up the middle some more.

Philadelphia Eagles - Kolb bombed in his final audition to remain the starting QB over the rest of the season, so Vick will take the starting job back after the bye. DeSean Jackson's week 9 status is completely up in the air. The Eagles are on bye this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Big Ben picked up right where he left off last year and has been awesome through 2 weeks. His return has allowed both Mike Wallace and Hines Ward to re-emerge as every week starters in fantasy leagues. There was a bit of concern when the Steelers said they wanted to reduce Mendenhall's touches a bit, but considering how Isaac Redman is a battering ram and Mendenhall was on pace for a monster workload, it makes a lot of sense. This doesn't change anything about how Mendenhall is a RB1 for the rest of the season.

San Diego Chargers - Rivers continues to chug along despite the loss of Malcolm Floyd. He's not throwing deep down the field as often for obvious reasons, but Crayton, Davis, and the rest of the receivers made enough plays to keep the offense moving. Antonio Gates is obviously not 100%, but he's probably not going to miss a game, and he proved last week that you can't bench him. He'll probably have some off games while battling his toe injury, but those will have to be lived with. The greatest concern here is how often they abandon the running game. Ryan Mathews is finally healthy, but they went very pass heavy even in a close game against NE last week. Mathews belongs on benches until they show a willingness to keep him involved. There's no reason not to.

San Francisco 49ers - Alex Smith is out a couple of weeks, and instead of turn to backup David Carr, they're going with Troy Smith. If they felt Troy Smith was the better QB, then he should have been working with the second team all along. You can't tell me that Carr's terrible, albeit very limited, action last week was what made this decision. It just goes to show how inept this coaching staff is right now. Frank Gore will continue to post yardage, but his TDs are down thanks to this mess. Vernon Davis needs to be started as well as you figure Smith will target him often. Crabtree belongs on benches.

Seattle Seahawks - Hasselbeck has been fairly solid so far, and Mike Williams has emerged as his go-to receiver over the last two weeks. Before we get too crazy here, Mike Williams is a big bodied WR who lacks the speed to get open on a weekly basis. He uses his size well, but his abysmal 10.9 YPC tells a different tale. He's a possession receiver and a red zone threat, but that's it. If you can get someone that will overvalue him, take advantage. If Williams starts seeing extra defensive attention, Deon Butler could emerge. Marshawn Lynch has taken over this backfield, and while he's not going to break big runs, he's going to get enough carries and redzone looks to remain a low end RB2.

St. Louis Rams - Sam Bradford has his work cut out for him now. First Clayton tears his knee and goes out for the year, then Danario Alexander has yet another setback with his knee and probably won't play for some time. There's simply not enough talent left, and the Rams should have given more consideration to dealing for Vincent Jackson. They should at least go after him this offseason. Steven Jackson had minor surgery on his finger, but he'll be just fine and ready to roll this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Josh Freeman and Mike Williams continue to show impressive chemistry, and they are the foundation of this passing game. Freeman has been a rock solid QB2, and Williams has emerged as an every week WR3. The bigger news is the rushing attack as LaGarrette Blount was featured in the 2nd half of last week, and he racked up 72 yards on 11 carries, and had 2 big runs called back on unrelated penalties as well. It's possible that he'll emerge as the primary ball carrier for this team, and considering Cadillac Williams is just a name at this point, there's no reason not to. Williams will remain the passing down back at least, though. Blount is not a bad bye week fill-in for this week.

Tennessee Titans - Vince Young will return to the starting lineup this week, but he's not going to be 100%, and he'll be facing a very tough SD secondary, so he's hands-off for this matchup. It was just announced that Kenny Britt will face no further punishment from his team, but keep in mind the league could still send down further punishment if he's convicted later on. He's in the clear for the short term, however, so he's fine to use this week. Chris Johnson continues to struggle in the YPC category, but he's made up for it with a big workload.

Washington Redskins - McNabb has been decent, and he's been proficient and getting the ball to both Santana Moss and Chris Cooley, both of whom are every week starters. Ryan Torain has emerged as a force on the ground, but after this week's game against Detroit, his schedule gets awfully tough. Given his injury history, it's a great idea to sell high.

Week 8 Waiver Wire

2010-10-26T20:51:00.001-05:00

QB:

Matthew Stafford - I mentioned him last week, and I'll do it again this week. He's surrounded by weapons that are all getting healthy after the bye week, he's playing at home this week, and he's going against a weak Washington secondary. He's a perfect week 8 starter in a week where 6 teams are on bye, although given the likely rust, keep your expectations in check. Moving forward, he's a perfect grab for Tony Romo and Brett Favre owners as he's the most likely QB1 left on the wire.

Ryan Fitzpatrick - I'm still a bit wary here, but he certainly opened up some eyes last week with a huge performance against a great defense. Don't go chasing last week's points, but offensive coordinator Chan Gailey has a nice history of getting the most out of mobile QBs. With Lee Evans and the emergence of Steve Johnson, Fitzpatrick has weapons to throw to. He's another solid guy to use this week with so many QBs on bye.

Josh Freeman - He's unowned in too many leagues. He's a solid QB2 and has posted respectable numbers all season long. He's arguably a safer bet than Fitzpatrick, although oddly with less upside as well. He's another good grab for this week.

Jon Kitna - He's not a horrible pickup, either. He's going to start, and with the way things are right now, there's at least a solid chance it'll be for the rest of the season. He's surrounded by good weapons, and he has a history of being a fairly aggressive QB. I think he'll at least be a solid QB2 with startability in the right matchups.

Matt Moore - Moore closed very strong last year, so it was a bit shocking to see him yanked after only two games this season even though he was playing very poorly. He looked quite good last week, and he gets a banged up Rams secondary this week. He's not a terrible one week emergency fill-in.

RB:

LaGarrette Blount - Blount took over as the lead RB for the Bucs in the 2nd half on Sunday and looked very good. The coaching staff loves Cadillac Williams too much for Blount to completely seize all early down work, but he should see plenty and is probably the best RB left on waiver at this point.

Mike Hart - The Colts backfield is a mess, but if you're looking for an upside stash, here's one. Addai seems likely to miss at least one week, and he could miss up to a month. Brown is expected to return this week, but you never know. Hart is the only certain healthy member of the backfield, although it's likely he'll take a secondary role to Brown. Still, with Brown's injury history so far, who knows how he'll fare.

Javon Ringer / Derrick Ward - Just another reminder to back up your stud RB1s with their clearcut backups. These guys would be instant RB2s should something happen.

WR:

Jacoby Jones - The Houston offense, by all accounts, should get pretty nasty in the 2nd half of the season. Jones is a great upside pick to grab. Kevin Walter isn't impressing anyone, and Jones has a ton of talent.

James Jones - Jones flashed his big play potential in the first half last week, although he did disappear in the 2nd half. However, just like Jacoby above, this Jones has an declining veteran in front of him, and the Packers would be better off moving Jones outside and kicking Driver to the slot. He's another good upside stash.

David Gettis - Meh. He's certainly surpassed Lafell to start opposite Steve Smith, but he's not a fantasy option. Steve Smith will undoubtedly return to fantasy prominence, and Gettis' big game might get some attention from defenses. Carolina isn't going to support 2 fantasy WRs, but you could stash if you have an empty spot with nothing better to do.

Jordan Shipley - Don't bother. Freak amount of passing attempts and a freak game. There's no way Cincy is going to support 3 fantasy WRs...it can barely support Ochocinco.

Week 7 Injury Ward

2010-10-26T20:49:00.000-05:00

Tony Romo - Romo broke his collarbone on Monday night, and his recovery time ranges from 6 weeks to the rest of the season. It appears as though most outlets expect him to miss 8 weeks, and if that's the case, the Cowboys will likely toss him on IR. It should only take another loss or two, so while that might be a couple weeks, Romo is likely finished in 2010. I'd drop him. Kitna is a veteran QB who will throw it down the field, so while this certainly doesn't help Austin, Bryant, Williams, and Witten, I don't think it hurts them as bad as it may seem. Austin is still a WR2, Bryant showed signs of life, and Witten did just fine. I think the guy this hurts the most is Williams as he finally was getting on the same page as Romo, but it appeared as though Kitna preferred Bryant.

Brett Favre - There seems to be conflict (regarding Favre? No way...) with exactly what the injury is. It was commonly believed that he had multiple fractures in his ankle, but now some say it's a glorified sprain. Despite all of this, he'll likely be a gametime decision. Unfortunately Minnesota plays late this week, so if you plan on using Favre, you'll have to roster yourself a later starting QB like Josh Freeman to ensure you have a starter. You can't bench Moss because of his redzone skills, but Harvin will likely suffer if Jackson starts.

Alex Smith - Smith suffered some sort of AC joint injury in his shoulder, and he's almost certainly out in week 8. Nobody knows how severe it is yet, but it's likely that only 2 QB leagues had him rostered anyways. This will hurt the offense, however, because I think Singletary knew how bad David Carr is when he didn't pull Smith at any point this season. Frank Gore will probably suffer a bit more, Vernon Davis will suffer a bit, and Crabtree becomes very shaky while Smith is out.

DeAngelo Williams - Williams limped off late, and it's not known how serious his injury is. Jonathan Stewart might have been dropped in your league, so grab him if he's surprisingly out there. Williams is nothing more than a RB2 at this point, but Stewart would be a borderline RB1 if he started in a week where a number of good RBs are on bye.

Week 7 Waiver Wire

2010-10-19T22:01:00.000-05:00

Let's take a look at who's out there for the upcoming week. It's a waiver class deep at WR...

QB:

Matthew Stafford - Stafford was likely dropped in a lot of leagues after being drafted as a QB2 and then getting injured in week 1. The time to grab him is now. He has an excellent chance at being productive in the 2nd half of the season as his weapons are getting healthy, and the bye week is coming at the perfect time. He is on bye this week, so keep that in mind. Stafford is easily the best QB option out there, and he could become startable down the stretch. At worst, he'll provide excellent depth.

Matt Cassel - He threw for 3 TDs against a horrid Texans secondary last week, so he'll likely be a hot waiver ad this week. With Jacksonville, Buffalo, and Oakland up next, the schedule appears easy, but these are games that KC can easily control via their rushing attack. Cassel will throw some TDs, but he's not going to be asked to air it out in any of these contests. Don't let one week against a horrid secondary fool you...Cassel is not a very good QB.

RB:

Danny Woodhead - Meet the new Kevin Faulk. New England is notorious for various backfield arrangements that are usually hands-off in fantasy, but Woodhead is emerging as someone who might be able to contribute. He's a perfect fit into this offense with his variety of skills, and since Moss has left, Brady needs weapons that can attack the defense in various ways. Woodhead isn't going to get 15-20 carries a game, but he makes plays with his touches and will be used all over the field. He's not a bad bye-week emergency guy.

Chris Ivory - The savvy owners already grabbed him, but his week 6 explosion will make sure he's owned in many more leagues tomorrow. He's a must-grab for Pierre Thomas owners, and he's a solid speculative pick for others. If you don't own Thomas, don't grab Ivory for the sole purpose of using him this week. There's a chance Thomas could return, so you can't put all your eggs in Ivory's basket. At any rate, he's earned a role on this offense.

Derrick Ward - All Arian Foster owners should grab Ward as a handcuff. Ward looks more like he did with the Giants than with the Bucs in his limited carries so far this year, and he'd probably be a valuable RB2 should Foster suffer an injury.

Deji Karim - Karim has seemingly overtaken Rashad Jennings to be MJD's backup. However, it takes a special talent like MJD to fight through his miserable surrounding situation for fantasy value. If MJD went down, there'd probably be a carry split and little-to-no fantasy value. If I owned MJD, I probably wouldn't bother.

WR:

Danario Alexander - Alexander is a hot topic this week after his week 6 breakout. Alexander was a standout WR at Missouri, and he was considered a better talent than Jeremy Maclin. He's 6'5, 215 pounds, and has 4.45 speed. The problem has always been injuries, namely to his knee. So, Alexander profiles as your ultimate risk/reward pickup. Bradford's amazing rookie season has allowed STL to provide fantasy value to it's passing game, and with Clayton's injury, the race to be his go-to target is wide open. Alexander has both the talent and the situation to provide fantasy value, but he's also risky as both a rookie WR and an injury problem. For the price of a waiver pickup, he's well worth the speculation.

Deion Branch - Branch immediately stepped in as one of Brady's go-to targets in his first game back. There's really no reason to think Branch won't be the most productive of the Patriots WRs the rest of the way out given the other WRs, and his biggest competition for targets will be Aaron Hernandez. If Branch can stay healthy, which is a big if, he could be a WR3 the rest of the way. He's worth a waiver add.

Robert Meachem - Meachem could be headed towards a similar 2010 season as he had in 2009. He struggled in the first half with inconsistency prior to emerging in the 2nd half as a force with over 400 yards and 6 TDs. He's had a rough start to this season, and you can partially blame that on coming back from an offseason injury, but there's no denying his talent. The only thing that holds Meachem back is his mental approach and thus his consistency. Meachem is also well worth the add, and you can start him immediately. He's already playing more snaps than Devery Henderson, and if he keeps playing well, he'll pass Moore, too.

Mike Williams - Seattle Mike Williams had his best game as a pro last week with 10 catches and over 100 yards. It's hard to figure what you'll get with him each week, but he's solid depth at worst case. I'd like to see some more consistency before I go starting him, though.

Patrick Crayton / Jason Avant - Due to injuries to both Malcolm Floyd and DeSean Jackson, both of these guys will start in week 7 for good passing attacks. I'd prefer Crayton as Gates is probably out as well, so Rivers will need to throw to someone. Avant will provide a possession receiving threat for Kolb and doesn't have the same upside, but he's a decent bye week/injury replacement for one week.

TE:

Owen Daniels - Daniels won't fix your week 7 issues, but he's easily the best long-term addition here. He looks healthy again, and he's starting to pick up where he left off last year. He's a good bet for top 10 TE value in the 2nd half of the season.

Ben Watson - Injuries to Massaquoi and Cribbs made Watson the go-to receiver for Colt McCoy last week, and he used him quite often to the tune of a great 6/88, 1 TD performance. Given all the bye weeks and injuries to TEs, Watson is a good option this week.

Fred Davis - Cooley owners should add Davis without question this week assuming they don't have another good TE on their roster. If Cooley sits out, Davis is easily a top 10 option this week. There's minimal difference in talent between the two, and Davis is arguably a better receiver when you consider after-the-catch ability into the equation. Cooley owners should consider using your waiver priority on him, but non-Cooley owners might want to hold off.

Quick Note

2010-10-11T14:03:00.000-05:00

Forgot to state that I'm on my honeymoon, so I didn't post anything last week and I won't be posting anything this week. I'll be back at it next Monday!

Week 4: Team by Team Notes

2010-09-29T17:17:00.000-05:00

I wanted to start writing a column briefly going through each team and talking about fantasy impact for the upcoming week. So, here goes:

Arizona Cardinals - Derek Anderson is killing this offense, most notably Larry Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald's knee isn't helping matters, either. Fitz can be started, but don't expect big numbers. It might be worth seeing what Max Hall can do because we all know what Derek Anderson is, and most importantly, what he isn't. Beanie Wells returned healthy last week, and he's set to assume feature RB duties. Get him back into your starting lineups, and get Hightower out.

Atlanta Falcons - Turner looked just fine, and Matt Ryan continues to throw the ball well. White was held in check most of the day by Jabari Greer, but he still churned out a nice stat line and continues to make the most of his targets. Tony Gonzalez was a new man last week while posting an impressive day and looking spry after the catch. No worries about him moving forward. Harry Douglas simply isn't doing anything at the other WR spot, so the Falcons are probably looking forward to getting Michael Jenkins back.

Baltimore Ravens - Joe Flacco finally had a nice game last week, and he should flirt with borderline QB1 numbers after his cold start. Anquan Boldin was all over the field. Boldin is a WR1 when he's healthy, but if you could parlay his hot start into a trade for someone like Roddy White or Reggie Wayne, do it as Boldin is always a poor bet to play 16 games. Ray Rice will be a game time decision this week after suffering a knee bruise last week, but luckily they play early, so make sure you have an alternative ready just in case. McGahee will be the feature RB should Rice not go.

Buffalo Bills - Trent Edwards is gone, much to the chagrin of opposing defenses. Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't very good, but he at least tries to move the ball down the field. It's better new for Lee Evans' owners, but Evans is still only bye week material currently. Marshawn Lynch is the new bell cow for this offense, although they'll often be behind and not milking the clock, so his touches will be limited on a weekly basis. Odds are he's being showcased for a trade, so keep Fred Jackson in deep reserve if you can afford it.

Carolina Panthers - The quarterback play is finally taking a toll on this rushing attack. Jimmy Clausen looked completely over-matched, and while he'll get another start this week, his leash is short. One more performance like last week is going to get him put back on the bench again. I think Matt Moore deserves another look anyways, or at least Steve Smith owners hope so. Williams and Stewart are facing a boatload of defenders in the box on rushing downs because the QB play just doesn't scare anyone. This is going to be a problem until Clausen or Moore start making some plays.

Chicago Bears - Cutler had a bad game on Monday night as he should have been intercepted multiple times, but the Packers are able to bring more pressure than most teams, so it wasn't a huge surprise. Johnny Knox continues to make big plays, but he's not catching a lot of passes, and I think as the deep router runner he's affected most by the bad offensive line. He's still be a solid WR3, however, and he's going to catch some long TDs this year. The rest of the WR group is kind of a mess currently. Greg Olsen continues to be used more than most thought he would, so I'd keep using him until proven otherwise. He's their best red zone threat as a receiver, although Matt Forte is a close 2nd. Forte had a bad game, but such is life when you can't run the ball. He's much better in PPR leagues, but he's still a solid RB2.

Cincinnati Bengals - Carson Palmer still looks like crap, and his huge week 1 is a distant memory at this point. Luckily for his owners, he's still surrounded with enough talent to be a reasonable QB2, and there's nobody else on the roster that would make any sense starting at the NFL level. Ochocinco and Owens will suffer accordingly. Benson had a big game and will continue to be the workhorse, but his owners would be smart to ensure they have Bernard Scott waiting on standby.

Cleveland Browns - Peyton Hillis has given fantasy owners one reason to consider rostering someone from this team. He's taken the starting job from Jerome Harrison, and you can expect a decent workload each week from him. He's best utilized as a matchup play despite the amazing performance against the Ravens. Nobody else on this team is worth a damn.

Dallas Cowboys - The media-appointed Super Bowl champions finally won a game. Romo would have had an even bigger day had Bryant not been pushed out of bounds on one big TD catch, and then he couldn't get his feet down on a 2nd one. Bryant's breakout game is coming, so be patient. Roy Williams obviously put up a huge game, but that screams fluke to me. Bryant is going to take this job. The running game is a pure committee and there isn't much positive to say about what's been going on so far with it.

Denver Broncos - The Moreno injury has allowed Orton to light up the pass attempt stat column. A caution about Broncos WRs like I mentioned under Brandon Lloyd in my waiver wire column: this is a true committee. Lloyd, Gaffney, Thomas, and Royal are all sharing snaps. The Broncos won't throw for 460 yards most week, so there won't be enough to go around. Be careful about who you start here. Maroney started, but he did not look good at all. He'll start again this week, and he can be used by desperate owners as a bye week replacement, but don't expect a whole lot. He's certainly worth keeping around to see if he can turn the corner.

Detroit Lions - With Stafford, Burleson, and Best now hurt, the arrow on this offense is pointing way down. Teams are again tripling Calvin Johnson, although Tony Scheffler has done a nice job. Best has turf toe, and you all probably know how unpredictable this can be. Who knows if he's start, and if he does, how effective he'll be. He's a risky RB2 if he plays.

Green Bay Packers - The passing offense is humming along, and now's a good time to buy low on Greg Jennings. He did this last season as well, but this guy is going to start making some big downfield plays sooner than later. It's just a matter of time before Finley starts scoring some TDs to go along with his monster yardage total thus far. He had one called back on a frustrating unrelated penalty. The rushing attack is a different matter. Brandon Jackson simply isn't cut out to be a featured RB at the NFL level, and John Kuhn is a much better runner. Ted Thompson isn't know for trading draft picks, but the Packers would be wise to see what all is out there.

Houston Texans - The offense took a step backwards last week, but the biggest news here is AJ's ankle injury. Given they're playing Oakland this week, I wouldn't be surprised if Houston runs a bit more and sits AJ out. This would be good news for both Jacoby Jones, who would start in AJ's place, and Arian Foster. Still, Johnson is a gamer and will do everything he can to get onto the field. How big a part of the game plan he'd be at < 100% remains to be seen, however.

Indianapolis Colts - The offense keeps humming along, even with the injuries to Pierre Garcon and Anthony Gonzalez. Collie was a monster, and he'll be a big part of the offense all season. Owners who didn't heed my warning and drafted Addai this year as their RB2 are suffering. He's not scoring TDs, and that's what kept his value afloat last season. His yardage is on a similar pace, but unless he scores, he's not much of a fantasy option. He's a RB3.

Jacksonville Jaguars - This offense is a mess, and it's bringing MJD down. If you sign Trent Edwards and he becomes a threat to start at some point for your team, you know how bad it is. Sims-Walker is a decent WR3, and MJD is a must-start despite the situation, but there's no good news to be seen here.

Kansas City Chiefs - They keep winning, so their offensive problems will keep getting swept under the rug. First of all, Matt Cassel is holding this entire offense down. He's simply not a starting NFL QB as he's looked as bad as a 3-0 QB can. He finally hit Bowe down the field for a TD, but it was off a ridiculous trick play. If you can sell high on Bowe after one good game, go for it. I'm trying. Thomas Jones, despite not being nearly as productive per touch, continues to hog carries in front of Charles who's merely a change-of-pace RB at this point. Until they start losing, don't expect this to change.

Miami Dolphins - Ricky Williams put the ball on the ground a couple times, and Ronnie Brown was on the field more. Williams needs to hang onto the ball or Brown is going to take a dominant lead in this committee. Henne and Marshall finally got on the same page, against the Jets defense no less (granted they're much weaker without Revis), and it was pretty. Marshall should hog targets moving forward.

Minnesota Vikings - All is back to normal in Viking land for at least one week. Peterson predictably had a monster game against the Lions, and Brett Favre looked more in sync with his WRs. Harvin especially looked good. Favre is still making the horrible throws that he wasn't making last year, and I think he's going to have quite an INT total by the end of the year. Don't completely forget about Sidney Rice as he's someone to stash if you can burn a roster spot for 8-10 weeks.

New England Patriots - The passing game is humming along, although I'm sure Randy Moss owners are wondering what's up with the receiving yards. I wouldn't be concerned too much here, although the additional weapons, especially Aaron Hernandez, are cutting a bit into his targets. Moss will still get his, especially in the big play department. The running game is a mess, although injuries to Kevin Faulk and now Fred Taylor might clarify things a bit. BGE will start and get most of the carries if Taylor sits out, and Danny Woodhead is slowly being brought along as Faulk's replacement. Sammy Morris remains a strict backup.

New Orleans Saints - The Saints took one on the chin thanks to the struggling Garrett Hartley. Brees looked good again, and the biggest story from week 3 was the re-emergence of Lance Moore. Skepticism is advised given the spread-the-wealth offense, but Moore's big run in 2008 was directly related to both him being healthy and Reggie Bush being injured, which is the current state of things right now. Meachem and Henderson will play a big role as well, but Moore has a chance to do more damage moving forward as he has far more reliable hands. Keep an eye on Pierre Thomas' ankle injury, although the fact he returned to the game afterwards is cause for hope. Chris Ivory would start if PT can't get ready for Sunday. Ivory might be stealing his goal line carries, too.

New York Giants - The Giants, needless to say, are reeling. Eli has been eh, and Bradshaw has actually been very good, but they got smoked by Indy and then the Titans beat them pretty good as well. The defense isn't playing that great, and it's forcing Eli to throw far more than the Giants would prefer. Bradshaw has been a great RB2, but Eli needs to make smarter passes as his 5:6 TD:INT ratio indicates. He's nothing more than a QB2, anyways.

New York Jets - Sanchez is back on the fantasy radar after 2 excellent performances the past two weeks. Braylon Edwards has made some big plays, and he's doing much more than Jerricho Cotchery, so it looks like Edwards will continue to start after Santonio Holmes returns. Edwards and Holmes give Sanchez some great weaponry, and Dustin Keller has been huge so far as well. Sanchez is a great QB2. LT has taken ahold of this backfield. He was already the favorite for 3rd down work, but he's also taking goal line work as well. He looks fresh, explosive, and is a good RB2 as the leader of this committee. Greene isn't going anywhere, but he's startable at all right now.

Oakland Raiders - Darren McFadden has improved by leaps and bounds this year, and he's taken a stranglehold on the starting job. He's been putting up great all-around numbers. Gradkowski isn't flashy by any means, but he seems to do a decent job of moving this offense. Louis Murphy's emergence has helped, and Zach Miller is always a threat. Gradkowski improves the fantasy prospects of both, so let's hope that Al Davis, for once, stays out of the starting lineup decisions as he loves Jason Campbell. Campbell is certainly more physically talented, but he looked awful the first two weeks.

Philadelphia Eagles - It wouldn't be right if I didn't address Michael Vick first and foremost here. I'm sure you've read the stories, but not only is Vick surrounded by the best talent of his career, he's also matured into a good pocket passer. He's passing first, and he's using his legs to complement that rather than as his primary weapon. It's a good fit behind a leaky offensive line. There's strong indication from scouts that despite facing two awful defenses in his first two starts and racking up gaudy numbers, he will continue his good play against good defenses as well from those who have watched him play. McCoy took a back seat last week in a disappointing turn of events, but he remains a solid RB2. He mentioned that thanks to the extra defensive attention Vick's legs require, it's opening up more holes for him to run through. Jackson and Maclin are both must-starts. The only guy not in on this party is Brent Celek as Vick has had no problem getting the ball down the field. You can consider another starter, but I wouldn't drop him. He's still a valuable weapon.

Pittsburgh Steelers - 3-0 without Big Ben. Pretty amazing if you think about it, although Charlie Batch put on quite a show last weekend against a decimated Tampa Bay secondary. Prior to that game, the Steelers QB play was far from stellar. Hopefully you left Mike Wallace in your lineup for last week's explosion. With the way Mendenhall is running, this offense will be pretty scary once Big Ben gets back up to speed.

San Diego Chargers - Rivers, despite the absence of Vincent Jackson, is making me eat my words for the second straight year. This guy just flat-out gets it done no matter who he's throwing it to. The good news for the offense is that Marcus McNeill signed his tender, so he'll return in week 7 and provide a boost to the offensive line. Ryan Mathews is also expected to return this week, so that's good news as well.

San Francisco 49ers - The offense has been abysmal outside of Frank Gore so far, so offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye was fired on Monday. Given the horrible play calling so far, it probably can't get any worse. Raye claimed he was just following orders from Singletary, but he might have been trying to save face at this point. We'll see this Sunday, but Gore and Davis are the only ones worth starting currently.

Seattle Seahawks - They win at home and look terrible on the road apparently. Hasselbeck has been solid so far, but I remain skeptical about how long that will last. Mike Williams has faded after a solid start, and Deon Butler is coming on. Golden Tate is also receiving more offensive snaps, so this is a mess currently. Tate is the guy to stash here for a possible 2nd half impact. Forsett has actually emerged as a decent RB3 and Washington has focused on special teams, and Julius Jones has thankfully been rarely used. He's a decent bye week replacement this week against St. Louis.

St. Louis Rams - Sam Bradford has been better than anyone expected thus far, and so has Mark Clayton. The two clearly have a nice connection going, and it's made Bradford a legit QB2 while Clayton is an every week starter to this point. Nobody else has stepped up, yet. The bigger news is the groin injury to Steven Jackson, and he's headed for a game time decision, so have other options ready. You can grab Kenneth Darby as a backup plan if you're desperate or hurting due to bye weeks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Not much to say about this offense. Mike Williams continues to impress, and Freeman should continue to improve as he gets farther away from his thumb injury. Cadillac has looked horribly unexplosive, and LaGarette Blount has taken the short yardage job away from him. He might be in line for more carries between the 20s as well, so keep an eye on that.

Tennessee Titans - CJ2K has put his monster workload to good use so far this season, but for the sake of his longevity in both this season and for his career, the Titans would be wise to follow through on their word and attempt to get Javon Ringer some more carries. It's best for everyone involved. It's also clear who CJ2K's handcuff is, so CJ2K owners should make sure to stash him. The passing game isn't doing much of anything, but Kenny Britt should remain in the back of your mind.

Washington Redskins - McNabb has been solid, and both Santana Moss and Chris Cooley has benefited. Their rushing attack is barely worth mentioning, although like I said in my waiver wire article, it's clear that Ryan Torain is the backup RB here and not Keiland Williams. It'd probably be a split between the two if Portis were to miss action, and it's unsure if he'll be ready this week.

Week 4 Waiver Wire

2010-09-28T20:22:00.000-05:00

The pickings this week are really slim...

QB:

Bruce Gradkowski - He's mobile and knows how to run the Raiders offense. He's not much of a QB2, but he's better than a number of guys that might be rostered right now. With Louis Murphy slowly emerging, Zach Miller a great TE, and Darren McFadden emerging as well, the Raiders have a competent offense.

Kevin Kolb - If Vick owners have an extra roster space, it's probably not a bad idea to stash Kolb. Obviously Vick is nowhere close to losing his job, but he runs and the Eagles offensive line is allowing him to take hits. Kolb isn't bad insurance.

RB:

Peyton Hillis - I don't know why he'd still be available, but his coming-out party against the Ravens has surely made many take notice. Jerome Harrison won't completely go away, but Hillis is a solid bulldozer with quality passing game skills. He should receive the bulk of the carries for the Browns and is a must-add in any league where he's still available.

BenJarvis Green-Ellis - Fred Taylor, unsurprisingly, has another injury, but it appears to be minor. Still, if he misses this week's game, Ellis would make a solid bye-week replacement. He'd probably get most of the carries and be the favorite for goal line work.

LeGarrette Blount - Blount has claimed committee duties with Cadillac, and with Williams not impressing anyone, Blount has a chance to make his mark. At worst, he'll split carries and probably be the favorite for goal line duties. At best, he could become the lead ball carrier. He's worth a stash to see how it plays out.

Ryan Torain - With Portis banged up as well, it was Torain and not Keiland Williams who picked up the slack. Torain knows Shanahan's system well, and Shanny has certainly produced fantasy gold out of nobodies, so you could stash him as a RB5 and see what happens.

Chris Ivory - Ivory would be the guy should Pierre Thomas go down, so he's another decent RB5 speculatory add.

WR:

Louis Murphy - He's emerging as the go-to receiver for his offense, and he's playing like a WR3. Add him, and you can certainly use him right away depending on your options.

Lance Moore - In 2008 when he was last healthy, Moore produced great numbers while Reggie Bush was out. In 2010, with Moore healthy again, and Bush not again...his first game lead to 149 yards and 2 TDs. His upside is dimmed a bit with the Saints spread-the-wealth passing attack, but neither Henderson nor Meachem have stepped up, so Moore has a chance to make a mark. Moore is well worth an add and figures to be productive for a while.

Brandon Lloyd - He's going to be a hot add after a fast start and a huge week 3, but caution is advised here. The Broncos have thrown a ton more than expected thus far, and it's doubtful they keep this pace up. Furthermore, there's a strict receiver rotation going on here between Lloyd, Royal, Thomas, and Gaffney. When the Broncos don't throw all game, it's going to be hard to figure out who will have the big game. Lloyd is definitely worth picking up, but I'd be cautious about starting him.

Braylon Edturds is an Idiot

2010-09-21T21:41:00.000-05:00

Braylon Edwards was arrested again, this time for a DUI last night. The Jets have benched him for this week, although he'll probably play for a little while. In court today he asked why he was pulled over for illegal tinting when he wasn't driving as if he was drunk. Seriously, Braylon?

Fantasy Impact: Edwards gave his fantasy owners something to smile about last week with a solid game, but you knew he had to screw it up somehow to make it up to you for drafting him. Considering he's not going to start, he's going to be very risky to use because it's unsure how long they will keep him on the bench. It's best to go with a safer option this week.

Vick = Starter

2010-09-21T21:35:00.001-05:00

The Eagles announced that QB Michael Vick is the permanent starting QB of the Philadelphia Eagles. This comes as a shock to many as Reid said repeatedly that Kevin Kolb wouldn't lose his starting job, but there are a number of factors that played into this decision. Kolb had 2 300 yard games last season as the fill-in starter while McNabb was hurt, and that gave many people, myself included, confidence that he had turned the corner in his young career. However, he didn't look very good in the preseason, and he was off to a horrid start in week 1 prior to his concussion. Vick looked fast in spring training, and his almost comeback at GB was impressive. He then looked excellent in week 2 against Detroit, mostly passing, and he's clearly outplayed Kolb ever since live football started this season. The NFC East looks pretty open this year, and Vick is going to give the Eagles the best chance to win this season.

Fantasy Impact: Michael Vick is immediately a QB1. He has the best surrounding offensive system in his career with DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Brent Celek. LeSean McCoy is a dangerous weapon behind him, and he's also an asset in the passing game. Toss in Vick's rushing ability now that his speed has returned, and you have a very valuable fantasy commodity. His big arm bodes well for DeSean Jackson's big play ability, and he's showing improved accuracy as well early on in the year. He also helps McCoy much like Vince Young did for Chris Johnson last year. When you have a running QB, it creates something else for the D to think about. First up? A poor Jacksonville defense. Kevin Kolb can be dropped immediately in all but dynasty leagues.

Week 3 Waiver Wire

2010-09-21T20:21:00.000-05:00

2 weeks in, and it's time to check out who this week's hot pickups should be:

QB:

Michael Vick - Those who grabbed him last week got gold. If he's still out there, you have one last chance to grab a QB1. Andy Reid did the smart thing and announced Vick as his starting QB for the rest of the year, so he's worth a #1 waiver claim if he's still out there, even if he's just trade bait.

Josh Freeman - Much like Sam Bradford last week, if you have a blah backup QB and Freeman is out there, grab him. He's not going to be anything more than a QB2, but he has solid upside with Mike Williams and Kellen Winslow as his primary targets, especially since the running game has been anything but good so far.

RB:

Marshawn Lynch - He started off the season 3rd on the depth chart, but he mysteriously started and led the team in carries last week. The Bills state they won't trade Lynch, but you don't showcase a 3rd string RB, crazily enough against a team interested in him, unless you're full of shit. Lynch is up for trade, and he's probably going to land somewhere. It may be tomorrow, it may be just before the trade deadline, but Lynch is likely to be traded unless he's shockingly the starting RB for the Bills again. Regardless of what nonsense is going here, pick him up.

Keiland Williams - Sleeper. Larry Johnson was just cut, and Portis is a poor bet to play 16 games. Williams has ascended to the backup spot, and he's clearly worth an add in all leagues now. There's a very good chance that he starts at least one game this year.

Jason Snelling - If you were a smart Turner owner, you'd own him already. If not, you're probably going to have competition. Snelling had a monster week 2 after Turner's groin injury, and he's going to be a popular add. A healthy Turner is clearly not going to give up carries, but Snelling is the perfect RB5 as a high upside backup who is an injury away to solid fantasy value.

Mike Tolbert - Same exact situation as Snelling, although he was a far less obvious backup. Mathews owners will have the same sort of competition as Tolbert was very impressive in his absence.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis - Similar situation to Snelling and Tolbert, but he'd probably have more competition for carries. Still, he's the clear early-down backup and worth stashing as an RB5.

WR:

Demaryius Thomas - No brainer here. Thomas put on a clinic in limited time last week, showing why he was the first WR drafted this year. He's a huge target with 4.4 wheels, and it looks like he's finally healthy. He might not start right away, but he's got a chance to do some damage this year once he does, and there's no question he will sooner than later if he stays healthy.

Louis Murphy - Murphy should probably be owned already as the #1 target, even if it is the Raiders passing game. Campbell has looked lost so far, so if Gradkowski becomes the starter, Murphy could post good fantasy numbers. Grab him just in case as he could become starter worthy.

Golden Tate - Purely a speculative add, but the Seahawks WR group is in flux, and I still love Tate's talent. He flashed it on a 52 catch last season. He reminds me a bit of Steve Smith from the Panthers with his smaller size but big heart fighting for balls in the air (hee hee). He's a good stash if you have a spot.

TE:

Aaron Hernandez - Hernandez is a monster after the catch with surprisingly shifty open-field moves. He's on the field a lot more than fellow rookie TE Rob Gronkowski, and with 146 yards through two games, he's been very impressive. Add him as a TE2, and if you're unhappy with your TE1, you could give him a shot.

Week 2 Waiver Wire

2010-09-14T21:47:00.000-05:00

Let's take a look at who we should be picking up this week:

QB:

Michael Vick - There's just no way Kevin Kolb will be ready this week. He's not scheduled to practice until Friday at the earliest, and I don't see any reason the Eagles would rush him back to face the Lions. Vick will get at least one start, but as Reid has clearly stated, Kolb is his starter despite Vick's impressive 2nd half. Vick will be an exciting QB1 this week against the Lions, so if you're looking for a 1 week starter, he's your guy. He's also worth hanging onto in case Kolb comes back and falters again. Vick is ready to be a starting QB again in the NFL. He's worth using a waiver claim, but only if you're going to use him this week.

Sam Bradford - Bradford had a solid debut despite the interceptions, and it seems clear that the Rams are willing to let him air it out when necessary, at least for now. If you have someone like Matt Moore on your bench, I think Bradford offers more upside. He's nothing more than a backup at this stage, but he could prove to be useful on a bye week.

RB:

Brandon Jackson - Jackson is the no brainer, #1 waiver claim this week. Even if you don't need a RB, use your #1 claim on him. He's now the every down RB for the Packers, and while he might not get goal line carries as FB John Kuhn is rumored to be the top option for that role, Jackson is going to rack up total yardage and post some scores. He's immediately an every week RB2.

Peyton Hillis - Hillis is the lead RB for the Browns, surprisingly ahead of Jerome Harrison. They're going to split carries pretty much down the middle, but Hillis is the goal line RB, and he can catch passes as well. He's not an exciting pickup, but he can be a decent bye week fill-in.

Fred Taylor - With Maroney gone, the Patriots have successfully increased the average age of the RBs into somewhere near the social security range. All jokes aside, Taylor has even more job security now, and he's clearly the lead back of this offense. He's 34 and injury-prone, but he's a reasonable end-of-the-roster stash and he can be an emergency bye week fill-in during the right matchup.

WR:

Mark Clayton - Clayton emerged as the go-to WR for Bradford and the Rams immediately in week 1, so he's well worth adding for WR depth. Bradford isn't going to throw 50+ times each week, but Laurent Robinson hasn't flashed in his return from a torn ACL, and Danny Amendola is limited in talent. Clayton has a real chance to be this team's top receiver. He's always had the talent, but consistency has eluded him thus far.

Mike Williams (SEA) - Williams legitimately looked good in week 1. He's not going to blow the top off of a defense with his speed, but he flashed solid after-the-catch ability, and much like Clayton above, he doesn't have a lot of talent to compete with for looks. Deion Branch just isn't very good, and Deon Butler isn't starting yet. He's a huge target and could be a great red zone option for the Seahawks. He's good WR depth.

TE:

Tony Scheffler - I drafted him as my TE2 in both of my 12 team/16 roster spot leagues, but I don't think he's owned in a lot of leagues. He's not going to light up the scoreboard, but he's going to consistent gain yardage as essentially a slot receiver in the Detroit offense. He has the speed to make big plays as well. Stafford going out will hurt his big play ability, but he's going to rack up receptions and could be the 2nd leading receiver on the team this season. He's a great TE2.

Marcedes Lewis - I have to list him here as he'll be popular after a 2 TD week 1, but I wouldn't bother. Until I see Lewis used consistently outside of the red zone, he's just not going to be a consistent fantasy factor.

Jermaine Gresham - Gresham is a player. This guy a big-time talent as a receiver, but his upside is limited by two target hounds named Ochocinco and Owens. He's a solid TE2 worth stashing to see what happens this season, but expect inconsistency.

Week 1 Thoughts

2010-09-13T23:19:00.000-05:00

New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings - Drew Brees started off on fire, but he didn't do much after the first week. No worries here, especially since Meachem and Henderson both dropped big catches in the first half that killed drives. Pierre Thomas put up a goose egg in the first half, but then took over the game in the 2nd half with 80ish total yards, and most importantly, a goal line score. If he maintains goal line duties all season, and there's no reason to think otherwise while he's healthy, then he's going to flirt with RB1 value. He'll score plenty, and while he won't receive workhorse touches, he'll get enough. All of the receivers had down weeks thanks to the low passing totals, but all will be fine. Favre looked very rusty, and he cost his team this game thanks to his selfish offseason bullshit. He was completely out of a sync with a passing game missing it's top play maker in Sidney Rice. It might take a couple weeks to figure out how they're going to move the ball in the air, although Shiancoe looked very good. If he can rack up some yards this season, he could be a nice fantasy TE this season. Percy Harvin owners need to stay patient.

Oakland Raiders vs. Tennessee Titans - Darren McFadden can play football, apparently. After 2 lost seasons marred by ineffective play and constant injuries, McFadden racked up a huge game, and he's going to bury Michael Bush if he can stay healthy. Tennessee has a pretty tough defense, so this was an impressive performance. Let's see if he can do it again. Jason Campbell is going to have to check down to McFadden and Miller a lot this year. CJ2K is in prime form already, and Vince Young looked good in his limited opportunities. Kenny Britt is an after thought and only worth an end-of-the roster stash currently.

Carolina vs. NY Giants - Matt Moore looked awful after a rough preseason, so there's cause for concern here. It remains to be seen if he'll start in week 2 thanks to a concussion, but if he's healthy, they're not going to make a switch yet. Steve Smith just needs competent QB play to be a fantasy asset, so let's hope he finds it. DeAngelo Williams dominated the backfield after another lost offseason by Stewart, which personally surprised me. Stewart has never seemed to miss a beat after lost offseasons, but this one cost him, at least for one week. Expect them to get closer to a split as the season moves along.

Indianapolis vs. Houston - Hello Arian Foster! Foster turned in a monster week 1, and boy did he look like a keeper with how his running style fits this offense. He's a keeper, but let's hope Houston doesn't plan on running him this much all season or he'll break down when we need him most. No worries about the passing game...Houston adjusted to control the clock. Peyton was awesome, but his offensive line is a serious concern. It won't do much for his fantasy value as he'll throw plenty, but it'd be nice for them to get their starters healthy.

Denver vs. Jacksonville - One of the most boring games in week 1. MJD handled a big workload just fine, so his knee is a non-issue moving forward. He was productive, but this offense is going to struggle, especially if nobody steps up opposite Mike Sims-Walker and allows him to be doubled relentlessly. Lewis will score some TDs, but he's going to need more catches away from the red zone to be a reliable fantasy option. Kyle Orton was efficient as usual, and Eddie Royal was used extensively in the slot. Royal has a chance to be the most reliable WR on this team as Gaffney will start having to fight for snaps once the rookies Thomas and Decker get healthy and acquainted with the offense.

Atlanta vs. Pittsburgh - Mendenhall saved his owners with a 50 yard game-winning TD in OT, but he was mostly bottled up all game. This is a source of concern as Pittsburgh already lost it's RT Willie Colon for the year, and now Max Starks is out a month. He's going to have a tough road ahead until Big Ben gets back. The PIT WRs are dicey fantasy starts until then as well. No worries on the Atlanta offense; they faced an elite defense. Roddy White was a target monster, and expect that to continue all season.

Miami vs. Buffalo - Another snore-fest. Ronnie Brown looks healthy, so treat him as a solid RB2. Henne looked pretty shaky, but he looked Marshall's way often. If you own Marshall, hope he can actually hang onto the big plays he'll receive here. Buffalo is simply an entire mess, and I have a feeling that I messed up going after Lee Evans again. I'll learn one of these days. Maybe.

Detroit vs. Chicago - Stafford got hurt again, but he didn't look that great prior to the injury. The bad news is that he'll be out for a number of weeks, and Shaun Hill is a pretty big downgrade at QB. The good news is that once Hill got in the game, he looked Calvin's way quite often. Hopefully volume will help make up for the lack of big plays with Stafford out. Best is a true feature back getting goal line carries, but he got very little room to run. Against a healthy Chicago defense, that wasn't a big surprise. Better days should be ahead. Cutler put up a huge stat-line, and you can thank Mike Martz for that. He didn't have much time, and while some panic is necessary, you can't just look at the "Lions" and assume the worst as their defensive line is much improved. He was also on the wrong page with his receiver on numerous occasions, and hopefully that will be rectified with time. Forte was a monster in the passing game, and it is clear that he's healthy again. He's a good RB2.

Cincinnati vs. New England - Brady looked great, and he would have had a huge game had it not gotten out of hand so fast. Welker looks healthy, and he was targeted plenty. This offense will be very good this year, but it's clear the entire backfield can be ignored. Palmer had a huge stat line, but don't be fooled into thinking Palmer is back to pre-elbow injury form. He racked up huge numbers during blow out time when he was throwing on every down, but he simply doesn't have that same arm strength anymore. Owens was also the preferred target before garbage time when Palmer locked onto Ochocinco. I'm not complete ruling out somewhat of a Palmer revival, but I still don't think he's gonna be QB1 material this year. We'll see. Benson was mostly taken out of the game thanks to the score, but Bernard Scott did more with less touches. Scott is a play maker and might force his way into a bigger piece of the pie.

Cleveland vs. Tampa Bay - Peyton Hillis surprisingly started, and then he also dominated short yardage and goal line work. James Harrison can't be started as he's right back into a time share. Mike Williams looked very good and worth the preseason hype. Once Freeman gets over his thumb injury, Williams will be a fantasy asset. Cadillac Williams looked solid, but he simply doesn't have his speed anymore. Kareem Huggins surprisingly didn't receive a single carry as Earnest Graham was the 2nd RB. If that happens again, you should consider dropping Huggins and finding another sleeper.

San Francisco vs. Seattle - Alex Smith looked like a disaster, although his top WR Michael Crabtree seemed rather disinterested in helping him out, or even being on the football field. I'm starting to get a feeling that Smith is going to be an issue for this offense. Gore got nothing going, but SF simply wasn't ready to play this game. Mike Williams is worth owning from Seattle, and he does indeed look revived. The rest of the offense is worth ignoring for now. Keep the name Deon Butler in the back of your mind in case he wins a job.

Green Bay vs. Philadelphia - Kevin Kolb looked awful being a disgusting offensive line, and then a concussion ended his day and might keep him out for a couple weeks. Michael Vick is most definitely back, and given the shape of Philly's line, he honestly makes better sense as the starting QB. Reid is standing behind Kolb for now, but if Kolb is out for a couple weeks and Vick could play his way into the starting job whether Reid wants to admit it for now. Leonard Weaver suffered a gruesome knee injury and is out for the season, so McCoy could pick up some red zone touches now. He's got a chance to exceed my expectations. Ryan Grant suffered an ankle injury, and he might be out at least a week. The passing attack wasn't as explosive as they were in the preseason, but Philly is a really tough matchup. Finely faced a lot of physicality, but expect GB to adjust and get him open more often. Explosive days are ahead.

Arizona vs. St. Louis - Derek Anderson looked exactly as advertised, and I can't imagine him lasting the season as the starter. Fitzgerald's knee flared up, and it's possible he's in for a slow start. Hopefully he'll get enough TDs to help offset the inevitable drop in yardage he'll suffer from this season. Tim Hightower started for the injured Beanie Wells, and Hightower looked decent, but fumbled twice and will lose feature back duties to Wells once he returns. Bradford looked pretty good for St. Louis despite the interceptions, and he was allowed to throw an awful lot. He'll have some good days and some bad days. Mark Clayton was his favorite receiver and might be the best WR on this team this year. Steven Jackson was productive with his touches and looked healthy. He should be a reliable low-end RB1 this year.

Dallas vs. Washington - This game was a sloppy mess as the defenses dominated. Dallas attempted to offset the offensive line injuries with a lot of short passing, but it bogged down the offense and hurt their ability to move the football. Romo will have better days ahead, and Miles Austin was a monster. He should be a great WR1 this season. Dez Bryant is so much better than Roy Williams already that it's ridiculous. He'll be starting very, very soon. Marion Barber looked healthy and explosive again, but a lack of touches will hurt his value. Still, he should be a solid RB3 this year. Felix Jones saw similar touches, but he's going to need to hit on big plays in order to have fantasy value. He also is nothing more than a RB3. McNabb's ankle looked healthy, and he'll need his mobility to offset his still-gelling line. The Skins badly need another WR as Moss and Cooley are their only capable receivers. Expect lots of targets for them this season, and they should really consider getting Davis more involved. It's clear Davis is not a threat to Cooley, however. Portis got his touches, but he's not explosive at all anymore. He's a low upside RB3.

Baltimore vs. NY Jets - As expected, this was a defensive slugfest, and the only player who posted good stats was Boldin. He's probably not going to play 16 game again, but he looked great and already showed great chemistry with Flacco. Heap also had a big game, but he's nothing more than a TE2 with Mason and TJ Housh also demanding targets. Ray Rice had a rough day, but got plenty of touches. No worries here, but this game again reminded everyone that McGahee is the goal line back. Shonn Greene had a nightmare first game, and his owners should be in full panic mode. He didn't just struggle against a mighty run defense, he flat out played horrible with 2 fumbles and a big dropped pass. LT might see more touches for the immediate future as he looked very good. The Jets passing game can be completely ignore until Sanchez shows a willingness to look downfield.

San Diego vs. Kansas City - The Bolts offense walked into an unexpected buzzsaw in KC and looked pretty lost most of the night. Mathews looked pretty solid, but he was stripped for a fumble in the first half. The announcers brought up a great point that often times rookie RBs lose their "swagger" after an early fumble, so hopefully Mathews can shake it off. Defenses should completely blanket Gates because Rivers just doesn't look comfortable throwing to anyone else yet. Todd Haley is an asshole. Thomas Jones played for 2 series and then the first carry of the 3rd series, but then Charles came in and ran for a first down and then a 56 yard TD. The next series? Thomas Jones was back out there again for the first play, and McCluster even got a carry. If this is how he's going to use Charles, then you can't start him until he's willing to consistently put his best players on the field. Charles obviously cannot sustain fantasy numbers without touches. The KC offensive line cannot pass protect, and it's dragging down the entire passing game. I'm really pissed I screwed myself into taking Bowe again this year.

Isaac Redman Wins PIT Short Yardage Role (Not Really?)

2010-09-07T21:20:00.001-05:00

Pittsburgh announced today that RB Isaac Redman will get "first crack" at the short yardage role.

Fantasy Impact: It was nice of Pittsburgh to announce this right after the vast majority of fantasy owners, but I've been stating all along that this was an unsettled situation. This obviously delivers a blow to Rashard Mendenhall's fantasy value. Mendenhall will be the 3rd down RB, so he's going to get plenty of touches as the primary ball carrier and primary pass catcher out of the backfield. However, since we all know TDs are very important in fantasy football, it dulls Mendenhall's upside for this season. It's hard to saw what happened in practice, so who knows if Mendenhall lost the job, or they just really love Redman. I assume it was moreso the later as Redman did earn the nickname "Redzone" last preseason. At any rate, I think Mendenhall is still a top 10 RB, but don't get pissed off when Redman replaces him inside the 5.

**EDIT**: A new report has just come out that Mendenhall will maintain goal line duties. Odds are that he won't get every short yardage and goal line carry with Redman taking the ones that he does not get. This is, obviously, good news for Mendenhall's fantasy value. He should end up with a nice amount of TDs, and he's a threat to score 10 or so this year.

Final Draft Guide Update

2010-09-06T15:22:00.000-05:00

I have made my final revisions to my draft guide now that the preseason is over. The biggest stories have been the release and then signing of T.J. Housmandzadeh, although he carries no fantasy value as the 3rd WR for Baltimore, and Hardesty's injury, which has given Jerome Harrison a lot more fantasy value.

I've made edits all over the guide.

Browns RB Montario Hardesty Tears ACL

2010-09-03T16:45:00.000-05:00

Cleveland Browns RB Montario Hardesty tore his ACL during the preseason game against the Bears last night.

Fantasy Impact: Hardesty has been rather snake bitten with injuries involving his knees over the past couple years. This is a real shame since Jerome Harrison failed to impress the coaching staff while Hardesty was nursing his latest knee injury. Hardesty started last night and looked great while getting more than was blocked on his carries, but his torn ACL ends his season. Those of us unlucky fantasy owners who took a shot with Hardesty as their RB4/5 can cut bait immediately. Jerome Harrison will be the feature RB of this team for at least the first couple weeks, and he'll be a RB2 during that time as he doesn't much competition for carries yet. James Davis made a nice impression again last night, so he will move into the backup role and receive change-of-pace snaps. Davis can be added as a RB5 in case Harrison falters, and he could push for playing time as the year goes on.

My Big Draft

2010-08-29T21:47:00.001-05:00

I had my most important league's draft last night, so I wanted to take a step back, examine the results, and see how things went. It's a 12 team league with a standard starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D/ST. Scoring is standard as well with 30 passing yards/1 point, 10 rushing.receiving yards/1 point, 6 points for TDs, and -2 for turnovers. I picked 5th overall.

1st round: The top 4 RBs went off the board as usual with CJ, AP, MJD, and Rice gone in that order. As I stated in my draft guide, the no brainer 5th pick was Frank Gore, so that's who I drafted. The rest of the 1st round went pretty much according to the norm, although a Pats homer picked at the 12/13 turn and took both both Brady and Moss. Moss was a good pick, but taking Brady there is a bit high. However, it's one of those situations where if that's a player you really want, you know he won't make it back to you, so you have to take him there.

2nd round: I had 2 targets: Calvin Johnson and Roddy White. As long as one made it to me, I was going to be happy. Calvin Johnson went off the board with the 2nd pick of the round, so that made things interesting. The guy that picked in front of me stole the two WRs I wanted last year, but luckily he took Miles Austin instead, leaving me with Roddy White. I think White has the QB, offensive situation, and target-hound potential to contend for the top fantasy WR position this season.

3rd round: This is where things got interesting. I am high on Steve Smith (Carolina) as a WR2 who has WR1 potential, and he was my original target. However, Jamaal Charles lasted all the way to the 5th pick of the 3rd round. After struggling a bit with the decision, I went with Jamaal Charles. Like I said in my draft guide, I think he has explosive lower RB1 potential. I understand Thomas Jones is a threat, especially for goal line carries, but Charles has murdered him in preseason production. This will be a decision that I'll be keeping an eye on this season.

4th round: Not that I wanted one, but all the top 2 tiered QBs were gone now. Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Brady, Schaub, and Rivers. WR was my position of need, especially after passing on Steve Smith, and I always target WR2s that have WR1 potential. The decision was between Dwayne Bowe and Hakeem Nicks, and I went with Dwayne Bowe. Bowe has finally had an excellent offseason showing dedication, and I think Charlie Weis will improve this offense. Chambers provides enough of a threat, especially after last season's performance, that will keep defenses honest. Bowe will be the primary target on most passing plays. The round went mostly according to plan, but the TE run started with Gates and Finley being drafted. The round also included the draft's biggest head-scratching selection, and that was Carson Palmer with the last pick. Unbelievable. Even if you like Palmer, he could be drafted about 8 rounds later.

5th round: Too early to dive into the next batch of QBs, and Finley was off the board. That left me with a choice of a 3rd WR, or a top backup RB. Finley was the only TE that I would have strongly considered in the 5th round, and he was drafted in the previous round. I'm not especially high on Clark or Witten. An argument can be made for Vernon Davis, and I also considered Nicks again, but ultimately I thought Arian Foster provided the best value. Foster is a starting RB with goal line duties for a high-powered offense, and he's going to make a lot of owners happy this season. Another boneheaded QB pick was made in this round, and that was Eli Manning. While I like Manning, it's another example of not knowing ADP as he would have been available for at least another 5 rounds.

6th round: It was still too early to dive into the next batch of QBs, and if I didn't take Finley in round 5, I was waiting until at least the 8th round to take a TE. I already had 3 RBs, so WR was the obvious position. I went with the guy I've been pimping, and that's Johnny Knox. He's a perfect fit for Martz's offense, and while the Bears have struggled with pass protection in the preseason, I think they'll put up enough big games. Plus, Knox has clearly been the go-to guy for this passing attack in the preseason. As a WR3, I really like his value. Round 6 included an awful selection of Justin Forsett, but things went mostly according to plan otherwise.

7th round: This was my worst selection. 6/7 teams picking behind me had a QB, so I should have waited a round as I like Cutler, Kolb, and Ryan about equally. At least 2/3 would have been there, and it's very likely that all 3 still would have been there as the one guy who didn't have a QB chose Flacco. I went with Jay Cutler, and I feel this is a pick that is going to haunt me. I really should have gone with Dez Bryant, and he was taken in the 8th round prior to my next pick. I think Cutler is going to have some huge games, and I think he'll provide better results in the 2nd half once the offense gels, but their offensive line is starting to really concern me. Luckily they play Detroit in week 1, so that has the ability to be a good one.

8th round: Cutler simply isn't an every week starter in my eyes right now, so I handicapped that pick with Matt Ryan. Ryan is going to take a step forward this year, and while his upside is limited by a team who likes to run, he's going to have plenty of passing lanes because of it as well. Ryan and Cutler both have the same bye week, but it's not until week 8, and there's a ton that can happen during the first 7 weeks. At worst case, I take a spot-starter for week 8. It's only one week. 3 defenses went in this round. Very few defenses are every week starters, so I just cannot fathom taking even elite defenses this early in the draft.

9th round: I had 3 very good RBs, my 3 starting WRs, and 2 QBs. Backup WR and starting TE were on my shopping list. I learned from the Cutler debacle, looked at the 7 teams picking behind me, and only two teams didn't have a TE. I liked both Zach Miller and Chris Cooley, so I took a calculated risk by letting this position go, and I focused on the WRs. I selected Lee Evans as someone who, at worst case, will be a good bye week fill-in. At best case, he will approach WR2 value. That talent hasn't gone anywhere, and I love fallen talents like Evans that I can put on my bench. I also really liked Santonio Holmes despite his 4 game suspension, but with Roddy White having a week 4 bye, I couldn't take this risk by forcing me to rely on whomever my WR5 was. I think the emergence of C.J. Spiller will give the defenses something else to focus on, and Roscoe Parrish is finally being used in the passing game. I like Evans' potential. By the way, neither Miller nor Cooley were selected.

10th round: I looked at the teams behind me, and they all had TEs, so I again felt safe letting that position go one more round. I wanted another RB, and I had my eye on Donald Brown, but he was selected 2 spots before pick. I re-looked at the available players, and I went with Montario Hardesty. James Harrison is NOT impressing coaches with his fumbles, and if you remember prior to his late season explosion last year, he was often in Mangini's doghouse for whatever reason. Hardesty is battling a knee injury which has kept him out of the preseason, but thankfully for his fantasy stock, Harrison is not doing anything to pull away. Hardesty will split carries once he returns, and he'll be the goal line back. He has a lot of upside, and he's exactly the type of RB I like to take later in the draft.

11th round: Miller and Cooley were still on the board, but it was only a matter of time before the two teams behind me that didn't have a TE took one, and we were now approaching the time in the draft where teams start taking a backup TE. I selected Zach Miller whom I really like this year. If Miller can produce borderline TE1 value with freakin' Jamarcus Russell, the move to Jason Campbell gives him very nice upside. Plus, Campbell made Cooley a TE1 for years in Washington, so he clearly values throwing to the TE position. It's not an offense that's going to allow Miller to score a lot of TDs, but there's a good chance he leads the team in receiving yards. Louis Murphy should also provide enough of a threat to keep defenses doubling him all game, and hopefully McFadden and Bush can provide additional threats as well.

12th round: Toss-up round. I wanted another RB, another WR, another TE, and I still needed a K and D/ST. I had my eye on Leon Washington, but he was taken a couple picks before me. I selected Mike Williams from Tampa Bay. Williams is going to be their go-to WR all season, and only an injury will prevent him from leading the team in receiving. Josh Freeman might miss the first game or two, but that's hardly a concern as my WR5. Freeman and Williams have shown impressive chemistry already, and I really like his potential this season. A great value this late.

13th round: I had a number of RBs left rated similarly, so I waited. The Dallas defense really stood out at this pick as an appealing defense that was still on the board, so I went with them. I always look at a defense's week 1 matchup when taking one, and with Washington up first, I really liked it. McNabb might not be ready, and how good of a friend is Rex Grossman to fantasy defenses? This could be an awesome pick for week 1.

14th round: 5th RB time! This is lottery pick area, so you take a RB that has big upside should the starter go down. The best bet is to focus on RBs that would have a clear starting role with an injury. I gave a little thought to Rashard Jennings with the rumblings about MJD's knee, but instead I went with Bernard Scott. With LJ gone, Scott is a big, explosive backup to Cedric Benson who will immediately become a RB2 should Benson get hurt. Scott has the talent to be a starting RB in the NFL.

15th round: Backup TE time. I selected Tony Scheffler. Yes, Brandon Pettigrew was a 1st round pick last season, but he's coming back from a torn ACL, and he'll be brought along slowly. Pettigrew is an excellent blocker, and while he's a solid receiver, he does not possess the seam-stretching ability that Scheffler does. Expect a lot of 2 TE sets with Scheffler providing a mismatch for whomever is covering him in the slot. He's got a chance for lower level TE1 value for what should be a much improved offense.

16th round: Simple strategy: take the best kicker available. I went with Adam Vinatieri. I also strongly considered Shayne Graham, and I might make a switch prior to week 1. Vinatieri has regressed the past couple seasons, but he had surgery to correct some injury issues, and he's looked solid so far. The problem is a bit of a catch-22...the Colts are a high powered offense that plays in a dome, but they are also extremely efficient in the red zone, so they actually don't provide a lot of FG opportunities. At worst case, he's going to get a good number of extra points, so just 1 FG will give you a solid game.

Recap: I liked my draft, and I think I did very well in the later rounds. However, I will be doing 2 comparisons this season:

1) Jamaal Charles & Dwayne Bowe versus Steve Smith & Jahvid Best. I would have taken Best in the 4th round had I selected Smith in the 3rd. I'm obviously concerned about having 2 of my top 4 players on a shaky offense, but at least the AFC West's defenses are pretty weak, and Weis should improve the KC offense. I felt I was taking the best player available, so in theory it shouldn't matter come season's end.

2) Jay Cutler & Lee Evans versus Dez Bryant & Ben Roethlisberger. I'm also obviously concerned about Cutler, and Evans versus Bryant should be interesting. Had I taken Bryant instead of Cutler, I would have gone with Big Ben in round 10 as my backup QB. Bryant is a 2nd WR on a good offense while Evans is a 1st WR on a bad offense. I'm very curious to how Cutler will play when I use him over Ryan.

All in all, I'm happy with my team, and I think I have a deep bench. I'm just excited for the season to start at this point!

Rams WR Donnie Avery Suffers Knee Injury

2010-08-26T22:06:00.000-05:00

St. Louis Rams WR Donnie Avery suffered a serious knee injury this evening in his preseason game with the Patriots. Given the nature of the injury, I'm pretty sure he tore his ACL.

Fantasy Impact: Immediately remove Avery as a WR5 candidate, and re-focus a potential WR5 candidate to Laurent Robinson instead. Robinson has the talent to be a true #1 WR at the NFL level, but much like Avery, he's suffered a number of injuries in his short career. Like I mentioned in my draft guide, a rookie QB isn't the best news for WR fantasy value, but someone has to step up, and Robinson has the most talent on the team. He's a good end-game flier.

500th Post: Leinart Sucks More And Gets Demoted

2010-08-26T16:56:00.000-05:00

I noticed that this is my 500th on post here. So, for the none of you who follow this, thanks for your support. I'd still be here if it weren't for you.

Down to business: Arizona QB Matt Leinart has been demoted. Derek Anderson will start for the Cardinals this weekend in the all important 3rd preseason game, and Leinart will come in off the bench. As long as Derek Anderson doesn't go all Jake Delhomme, which would be saying something since we're talking about Derek Anderson, he'll start in week 1. It's obvious that the Cardinals' coaching staff has seen enough of Leinart to know that he's not even the short term answer, and there's reason to believe he might be cut as well. It couldn't happen to a more dedicated player. Wait.

Fantasy Impact: Cross Leinart off your draft board, obviously. Derek Anderson hasn't shown any better accuracy this offseason, so there's little reason to draft him. If the Cardinals fall out of contention, there's a good chance one of Arizona's young QBs, Max Hall or John Skelton, would get the call at that point. Larry Fitzgerald becomes slightly more appealing because Anderson is far more aggressive than Leinart, but I still project a drop in his numbers across the board, and I'd much rather draft Calvin Johnson or Roddy White instead. Steve Breaston is worth ignoring because I don't think Anderson will be able to support more than one fantasy-relevant WR. Beanie Wells is mostly unaffected, although this might increase his scoring potential ever so slightly. Continue drafting him as a RB2 as he'll likely be the offensive focal point along with Fitz. On a semi-related note, I'm not buying this Tim Hightower crap. Hightower might "start", but Beanie is their featured RB. If this forces Wells into the 3rd round, grab him at a discount if you didn't like him in the 2nd.

WR5 Draft Guide Update 2

2010-08-26T13:39:00.001-05:00

I removed Golden Tate. After a very strong start to the offseason, he's fallen behind and will not start when the year begins. He's working on special teams now to increase his gameday value. He's someone to keep an eye on when the regular season begins, but he's not draftable.

I've become a stronger proponent of both Mike Williams from TB and Bernard Berrian. Williams has had a strong offseason from start to finish, and barring injury, he's a lock to lead all rookie WRs in yards and probably TDs. The Freeman injury hurts his value in the short term, but if that allows you to grab him at a further discount, that's perfect. Berrian obviously gets a bump due to Rice's hip surgery and Harvin's headaches, and he's probably being drafted as more of a WR4 now, which is fine as he'll start and be the primary deep threat for Favre.

I also highly recommend Jabar Gaffney. He's hardly an elite talent, but he's a good bet to lead the Broncos in receiving. Demaryius Thomas has re-injured his foot again, and he's not going to make a fantasy impact until late this year, if at all. Eric Decker isn't going to threaten his starting job this season, and who knows what you'll get with Eddie Royal.

Sidney Rice Undergoes Hip Surgery

2010-08-24T09:47:00.001-05:00

Minnesota WR Sidney Rice underwent hip surgery, and he is expected to be sidelined for at least half of the season.

Fantasy Impact: Hopefully you've been listening to my advice to avoid Rice in drafts this season. Unfortunately, if you did not, you now have a 2nd/3rd round pick that isn't going to play for a while. It's probably too early to tell exactly how long his rehab will take, but the estimate right now is half a season. Brett Favre gets a slight downgrade as Rice was his go-to receiver, but I still see him as a solid QB2. Sidney Rice can be drafted as a WR5, but nothing more. He's going to miss at least half the season, he'll probably be rusty when he comes back, and it's not a lock that he'll play at all. Percy Harvin and Bernard Berrian both get upgrades. Harvin is a bit of a risk with his unpredictable migraine situation, but he's a rock-solid WR3 set to start and see a nice increase in targets. Berrian should take over as the primary deep threat, and he's now worth up to a WR4 pricetag with possibility for WR3 value while Rice is out.

Matt Leinart Sucks

2010-08-23T18:54:00.000-05:00

Yeah, that's about it. He's starting to lose the locker room, and there's no guaranty he's going to last this season as the starter. In fact, it's likely. He's not worth drafting as a QB2, and I'll update my draft guide accordingly.

2010 Preseason Backfield Report Update

2010-08-23T18:50:00.002-05:00

I've made updates to the backfield report, so take a gander at teams you're keeping an eye on for the latest information. Good times!

Brett Favre Returns

2010-08-17T15:27:00.000-05:00

It's not official yet, but Brett Favre will be returning to the Minnesota Vikings for the 2010 season. It's hardly a surprise, but it gives some concrete information from which to draft Vikings' players. The Vikings will no doubt welcome him back with open arms as they're a Super Bowl contender with him.

Fantasy Impact: Brett Favre makes for a solid late QB1, but keep in mind that last season was a dream season, and that regression is to be expected. As long as he's drafted accordingly, he should be a solid contributor to your fantasy team. Adrian Peterson needs to be drafted in the top 2 of all leagues, but that was the case with or without Favre. Honestly, I like him better with Favre returning. Sidney Rice has started to cut off of his hip, so that's progress in his return from his mysterious hip injury. He will remain overvalued for as long as he's being drafted as a WR1. My expectations for Favre's regression will impact the entire passing game. Percy Harvin stands the most to benefit. Favre obviously solidifies the QB position, and Rice might start slow or possibly not be 100% this season. I like Harvin as an upside WR3. Bernard Berrian is nothing more than a late WR5 flier. Shiancoe is not a TE1 as he's solely reliant on TDs for his fantasy value.

Buffalo's RB Situation

2010-08-16T21:59:00.001-05:00

I wanted to sum up the mess that is Buffalo's backfield currently. Fred Jackson has broken a bone in his hand, and he is out for the rest of the preseason. He is also in danger of missing a regular season game or two. He was heading into the season as the lead back in this mess, but he is now in danger of losing that role. Marshawn Lynch sprained his ankle, but he is expected back as soon as the last preseason game. C.J. Spiller has a huge opportunity to seize the starting job the next couple weeks. I had originally ranked him as overrated because of all the veteran competition, but he is in complete control of his destiny. He's not going to be a goal line back, so his upside is limited, but he's comparable to someone like Jamaal Charles last season. His play-making ability would fit well into a team that does not have a solid offensive line nor a passing game. I would draft Spiller the first of the three now as I think his talent will win out, and he's got the best upside as a RB3. I wouldn't take Jackson as anything more than a RB4. Lynch is mostly an afterthought. I'm curious to see how Spiller does the next couple weeks.

49ers Sign RB Brian Westbrook

2010-08-16T21:14:00.000-05:00

The 49ers signed RB Brian Westbook today. This was a bit surprising after hearing the Rams and Redskins were the front runners to sign Westbrook. Ultimately though, the Rams were a rough fit because they play on turf, which would have been hell on Westbrook's knees, and they are in no shape to contend. The Redskins were a better fit because the play on grass and are closer to contention, but they also have like 8 billion 30+ year old RBs on their team. The 49ers offered both a grass surface and are probably the preseason favorites to win the wide open NFL West.

Fantasy Impact: I have updated the draft guide, but the simple fact is that this should not impact your view of Frank Gore. Glen Coffee suddenly retired to pursue a career in religion, and that left a hole at the backup RB position. Anthony Dixon was impressive during his first preseason action, but the 49ers remain concerned about his contributions in the passing game as both his blocking and receiving are questionable. Enter Brian Westbrook. Westbrook is obviously a big name in fantasy circles thanks to his contributions to teams over the past 5 or so seasons, but at 30 years old, he has proven over the past 2 seasons that he is best suited to a smaller, backup RB role. Westbook will get weekly touches and be a part of the game plan, but this offense will continue to run through Gore. The 49ers have stated their intention to move back to a power running attack after spending a lot of time in the spread formation last year, so adding an extra RB to take some carries is a good thing to keep Gore fresh. Continue to view Gore as an option in the top 5, and pounce if he falls out of it.

2010 Preseason Backfield Report

2010-08-15T11:28:00.001-05:00

With the preseason underway and injuries already occurring, I want to go through each team's backfield situation and update things along the way. I will be skipping teams with settled backfields like Tennessee, Minnesota, etc. as their situation is obvious.

Buffalo Bills - Fred Jackson suffered a hand injury in the preseason opener, and his availability for week 1 seems doubtful at this point.. He was shaping up to be a value pick in drafts this season as the favorite for early-down RB duties, but this is no longer the case. Marshawn Lynch also suffered an ankle injury and has missed all practices and games since then. The dual injuries have allowed C.J. Spiller to shine, and he will likely start in week 1. While Spiller is not built to be a workhorse at the NFL level, he's extremely explosive and should be a solid RB3. The lack of workhorse build, the fact he'll share carries, and his poor surrounding offense limits his upside, but he'll have a chance to be a RB2 this season.

Miami Dolphins - Ronnie Brown looked very good in his limited week 1 action, and the fact that he played in the first preseason game speaks volumes to his health situation. You can safely draft him as though he's 100% healthy, and he's a value in the 4th round. It's hard not to imagine Brown, while healthy, performing the same role with similar numbers as last season prior to his foot injury. The acquisition of Brandon Marshall and the further maturation of Chad Henne will help the Miami ground game.

New England Patriots - Fred Taylor is the supposed starter at the moment, but Taylor and Morris did not play in the first preseason game. Maroney looked solid with 2 TDs, and BJG looked good as well. The current thought is that the Patriots will feature BJG and attempt to trade him to someone, possibly New Orleans. The situation is an absolute mess, and thanks to the fact Maroney is buried on the depth chart and barely receiving preseason carries, he is no longer worth drafting, but rather someone to keep an eye on.

New York Jets - Greene has been referred to as the "bell cow" by Rex Ryan, so that should alleviate all doubts that LT would play a big role. I would feel 100% confident in drafting Greene to be my RB1 in the late first round. LT does look somewhat explosive, but this is Greene's backfield with LT a 3rd down RB threat and backup runner.

Cleveland Browns - James Harrison looked pretty good in his first preseason game, and Montario Hardesty is losing a bit of ground nursing a minor injury. James Davis is nowhere to be found. Hardesty still has plenty of time to make up ground, and if he impresses, it's hard to see this not being some sort of committee. RB committee + poor offense = look elsewhere for a RB.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Jonathan Dwyer has not been impressive this offseason yet, but in his absence, Isaac Redman has stepped up and performed admirably thus far. Mendenhall is the starter and will get the majority of touches, but Redman is a threat to take goal line carries. Furthermore, Pittsburgh's offensive line is a question mark, although they project to stronger blocking for the run than the pass. He's being picked in the late first round, but I'm wondering if he's worth that price.

Houston Texans - This is the biggest fantasy news yet this offseason. Rookie Ben Tate suffered a severe and season-ending ankle injury. Arian Foster is the clear starting RB, and he is a must-have in fantasy leagues. Slaton will only be a passing down and change-of-pace RB. Foster's ADP has moved to 78.4, which is the middle of the 7th round. You'll probably have to grab him in the 6th round to make sure, but he's well worth the pick as the starting RB/goal line back for the explosive Texans offense. He's a tremendous RB3.

Denver Broncos - Knowshon Moreno is nursing a hamstring injury, and while he's expected to be ready for week 1, his status for any preseason action is up in the air. Hamstring injuries can be tricky, so keep a close eye on his recovery. Hopefully he can get into a preseason game and at least show a small sign that he's good to go, but that's unlikely. The good news is that he's on track to start in week 1, so he's safe to draft if you believe in his talent. Kyle Orton's strong preseason has given me hope that he can turn in a solid RB2 season if the passing attack can hold their own.

Kansas City Chiefs - Thomas Jones has been running with the starters, so there is some concern about Charles' role to start the year. Based on what I saw last year, and the talent level of these two RBs at the respective stages in their careers, there's no question in my mind that Charles will win this job. The fact is that Todd Haley is playing head games with Charles to keep him hungry and encourage improvement, just like he tried to do with Dwayne Bowe. Unlike Dwayne Bowe in 2009, however, Charles is working hard. He's an excellent 2nd round choice and should pay big dividends when it matters most.

Oakland Raiders - Michael Bush looked good in the preseason while Darren McFadden nurses yet another injury. It's looking increasingly likely that Bush will be the starter and handle a lot of early down carries. He's not pulling away, but he's going to start and get first crack at goal line work. He's a solid RB3.

San Diego Chargers - Ryan Mathews looked very good in his first preseason, and he was out there in passing formations as well. Mathews looks like he's going to have a nice workload this season, and he might catch more passes than originally thought. He's better suited as a 2nd round RB, but he looks to be in store for a nice rookie season.

Dallas Cowboys - Marion Barber has had a very good offseason so far, and he's dropped the weight he gained in order to be an every down RB. He's been starting in practice, so it looks like he'll be the starter with Felix Jones seeing the field plenty. We're probably looking at a 50/50 timeshare here, but Barber is going to dominate goal line work. Jones is being over-drafted, and Barber is being under-valued.

New York Giants - This RB situation has undergone a complete reversal. Bradshaw has looked great while Jacobs has looked pedestrian. Bradshaw looks like he's inching towards a 50/50 carry split, and he's going to dominate receptions, so he's going to get more touches. Jacobs should handle goal line work, but it would not surprise me at all if Bradshaw gets a few as well. I'd much rather draft Bradshaw a couple rounds later.

Washington Redskins - Portis is entrenched as the starter, but I am no longer a fan of drafting him this year. He does not look explosive at all, and this backfield has Shanahan written all over it. Larry Johnson will get his touches, Ryan Torain looked solid during extensive work, and Keiland Williams impressed with his time on the field as well. Willie Parker isn't going to make this team barring some miracle this week when he starts in week 3.

Detroit Lions - Best has looked great during his time on the field in the preseason, and he was in during all situations, including a couple goal line plays. Best is a good value in the 3rd round of drafts, and only injuries will hold this kid back.

New Orleans Saints - Lynell Hamilton suffered a torn ACL, so he is out for the season. Pierre Thomas is the lone wolf in this backfield for now, and his upside is huge at the moment. The Saints have signed un-inspiring options such as Ladell Betts and DeShawn Wynn so far, and neither are a threat to Thomas' nor Bush's roles. Thomas is a good 3rd round RB.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Cadillac is again entrenched as the starter, and he looked solid in his first preseason action. The kid that made a name for himself is Kareem Huggins, and he has passed the declining Derrick Ward to be the #2 RB on this team. Given Cadillac's long injury history, Huggins is a great late round flier in all drafts this season.

Arizona Cardinals - Wells and Hightower are still battling, but just like the Charles/Jones battle, the better talent will win out here as well. Wells is going to be the starting RB for this team, and he will dominate carries.

Seattle Seahawks - Julius Jones started in the first preseason game. It's an absolute joke that this waste of space is taking reps from more talented players, but it is what it is. Justin Forsett is simply not going to be a feature RB on this team. Leon Washington has looked great, and he's going to start in preseason week 3. This is a good indicator that he is going to start in week 1 of the regular season as he's the most talented RB on this team if he's healthy. Forsett is solid as well, so this is shaping up to be true committee. I'd rather draft Washington later than Forsett, but honestly I'm not excited about anyone here.

Summary: Lots of interesting information so far. I think the biggest stories so far are:

1) Ben Tate's injury, although as I mentioned above, the severity isn't entirely known by the public right now. Arian Foster is a starter.

2) Lynell Hamilton's injury: Pierre Thomas isn't out of the water yet in his competition for goal line carries, but the Saints aren't signing any true threats for his role.

3) Ronnie Brown's health: He looks 100% healthy again. He provided excellent value while healthy last season as a 3rd round pick, and he's going even later this year. Health is always a concern with him, but if you can land 3 reliable players in front of him, he's well worth the risk.

There's still a couple RB battles worth keeping an eye on, so I'll write further articles as the preseason progresses.

WR5 Draft Guide Update

2010-08-09T14:49:00.000-05:00

I have made some slight updates to the WR5 section. I have removed Devin Thomas. He's still running with the third stringers, and he's supposedly having a hard time separating in practice. He's definitely a name to keep in mind, but he's yet again having an unimpressive training camp. I have also removed Arrelious Benn. Tampa Bay is not going to produce 2 starting fantasy WRs, and Mike Williams has looked far more impressive. Williams is a definite starter as to where Benn is still battling for a starting job.

Finally, Johnny Knox's ADP is shooting up draft boards for good reason. He's a very talented WR who, by all accounts, is having an outstanding offseason. He's acclimated very well to Mike Martz's offense, and his skill set is a perfect fit. Like I mentioned in his section, I would have no problem drafting him in the 8th or 9th round as a 3rd WR. I definitely want him on my teams this season.

Brett Favre Says He Will Not Return

2010-08-03T09:56:00.000-05:00

Breaking news has Brett Favre informing Vikings' team officials that he will not return this season, citing his ankle as a continued problem. Given this is Brett Favre and how he loves to change his mind to keep himself in the media, I'm sure this isn't the last of the story. For the sake of fantasy football, however, all Vikings outside of Adrian Peterson need to be immediately downgraded until this situation is figured out. Sidney Rice was already overrated because of his continued hip problems, but this will affect Harvin, Berrian, and Shiancoe quite a bit as well should Favre not play. Rice is somewhere between a WR2/3 now, Harvin is a risky WR3, and Berrian is nothing more than a late flier. I was already avoiding Shiancoe as anything other than a TE2, and I wouldn't bother drafting him at all now. Adrian Peterson will resume being the sole focal point of the offense, so I would still take him in the top two picks.

Draft Guide Updates

2010-08-01T22:18:00.000-05:00

I made updates to both Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe as I've read nothing but great news about Bowe's dedication this offseason. That's big news considering that has been his biggest enemy in his career. I made updates to both Antonio Bryant and Terrell Owens in light of Owens' signing in Cincinnati. Finally, I made updates to both Knowshon Moreno and Dez Bryant as they suffered noteworthy injuries in practice over the weekend.

I completed my draft guide last week, but I will make updates as necessary as news and injuries occur. Enjoy!

2010 TE2 Value Analysis

2010-07-25T22:09:00.001-05:00

I'm going to highlight a few guys you should keep an eye on with a flier TE2 pick rather than list everyone:

Greg Olsen - It's good to see fantasy nation being smart this year. Mike Martz kills the fantasy value of TEs because he simply values them far more as a blocker than a receiver. Olsen is solely a backup, but his talent is worth a late round flier to see if he can buck the trend.

Dustin Keller - He's a very good young pass catcher at the TE spot, but with the run-first offense combined with the acquisition of Santonio Holmes, there simply won't be enough targets for him to consistently be a fantasy producer. Still, like Olsen, his talent is good enough for a stash.

John Carlson - I'm a big fan of Carlson this year, but I think he's better as a backup to mitigate the risk. He's a very talented pass catcher, but he was mostly used as a blocker last year. With a lower price tag this season, I think Carlson could turn into a TE1 as Carroll will definitely use him more as a receiver after signing Chris Baker to handle blocking duties. He's an ideal TE2.

Heath Miller - He's being buried in drafts this year, but he had a very solid 2009 season. He'll probably start slow until Ben Roethlisberger returns, but he could be valuable depth after that. He's a good stash.

Ben Watson - Watson continuously disappointed in New England despite excellent talent, drawing ire from scouts saying that he's simply not a very good football player. However, he's landed on a team that has very little in terms of receiving talent, and someone will have to catch the ball. He's worth an end-of-draft flier to see if the light turns on for him thanks to a lack of better receiving options.

Tony Scheffler - Scheffler got buried last season by Josh McDaniels whose offense simply does not use the TE much. Detroit traded for him, and while Brandon Pettigrew remains a threat for snaps, I don't think they acquired him to sit on the bench. He's projects more as a slot receiver in Detroit's improved offense, and he could re-emerge as a fantasy threat like he did in Denver during Cutler's final season there. He's another solid TE2 stash.

2010 TE1 Value Analysis

2010-07-25T21:59:00.001-05:00

1) Antonio Gates

ADP: 46.4 (4th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Gates returned to fantasy prominence last year after his 2008 season was ruined by nagging injuries. Gates proved that when he's healthy, he is still among the elite at his position. As I've detailed with both Phillip Rivers and Vincent Jackson, there's a potentially serious problem for this offense. Vincent Jackson is suspended for 3 games, and there isn't much WR depth on this team after him. Gates will be targeted plenty while VJax is out, but he'll also be the defense's sole focus for the Chargers' passing game. Plus, 3 games is the minimum amount of games that Jackson will miss as several outlets fear that his holdout is for real. I think Gates has some serious risks this season, and there's no point in taking him as the first TE in a draft so deep at the position.

2) Dallas Clark

ADP: 48.8 (5th round, 1st pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Dallas Clark is an excellent fantasy TE when he's healthy, and he's been healthy for the past 3 seasons, which has seen him make sizeable receiving yardage increases in each of those 3 seasons. He topped out at an incredible 1,106 yards last season, but beware. He posted 60 catches for 703 yards in the 1st half while the Colts struggled to find consistency outside of Wayne and Clark last season, but once Garcon and Collie emerged, Clark's production fell to 40 catches for 403 yards in the 2nd half. I think his 2nd half production is closer to what we should expect in 2010 thanks to the fact the Colts have more weapons, and we know Manning will not lock onto targets over the course of a season. Clark will remain a red-zone threat and post good yardage, but as the 2nd TE picked, I'd pass at this price as his ADP is based off of last year's misleading production.

3) Vernon Davis
ADP: 55.1 (5th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Vernon Davis finally matched his immense talent with production last season, and he was easily the fantasy MVP at the TE position with his low ADP. He won't catch anyone by surprise this season, but thankfully for him, Frank Gore and Michael Crabtree will give defenses plenty to think about. Vernon Davis will probably lose a few TDs this season, the balanced offense will allow him to avoid too much extra defensive attention. I think last season is a solid baseline for his production, but with a couple less TDs.

4) Jermichael Finley

ADP: 59.8 (5th round, 12th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: There aren't too many TEs picked in the top 5 coming off of a 676 yard, 5 TD season, but there's plenty of reason to be excited about Finley this season. He accomplished this while battling an annoying knee injury for most of the season, he's going to start at TE after not doing so for part of last season, he posted a monster 6/159 line in his only playoff game, and he's playing for an explosive passing offense. There's been positive feedback this offseason about Finley staying dedicated to improving, so that's comforting after problems with that in the past. He's also the team's best red zone weapon with his tremendous size and leaping ability from the TE position. He has monster upside, and he's a great 5th round pick.

5) Jason Witten
ADP: 62.4 (6th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Witten struggled a bit in the 2nd half of 2008 and the first half of 2009, but he really took off during the 2nd half of last season, posting 639 yards. The disappointing part of his season came in the TD department where he crashed to 2 TDs. While he should improve on that total in 2009, unfortunately the addition of Dez Bryant gives the Dallas offense another mouth to feed, and Witten has never been a huge part of the red zone offense. I think you can expect Witten's yardage to decrease some with Bryant's arrival, and I don't expect a big bounce back in TDs either, so I think Witten will be slightly disappointing this season.

6) Tony Gonzalez

ADP: 68.0 (6th round, 8th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Gonzalez posted reliable stats last season during his first year in Atlanta, but his yardage total shrunk to it's worst total since 2002. Atlanta will return its offense intact, and they do figure to pass more in 2010 as Matt Ryan continues to mature and take on more responsibility. With Gonzalez starting to age, I think he'll remain reliable, but he'll probably post similar stats this season, so you're paying for consistency. There are more exciting options later in the draft that come at a cheaper cost.

7) Brent Celek

ADP: 70.1 (6th round, 10th pick)

Value: Slightly Undervalued

Overview: Celek created some buzz during the 2008 playoffs, but few too many people too notice, and he was one of my favorite TE sleepers last season. Celek completely delivered last season, posting almost 1,000 yards with 8 TDs. McNabb is now gone, but Celek and Kolb are very close friends, and Celek posted 2/3 100 yard games when Kolb started last season. I think he'll again post similar numbers, and I'd much rather take him than Witten and Gonzalez at the relatively same price tag.

8) Owen Daniels
ADP: 88.6 (8th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: What a shame. Owen Daniels was the #1 TE in fantasy football prior to a torn ACL that knocked him out for the season in week 8. Houston returns essentially the same offense, so Daniels should remain an integral part of their attack by working the middle of the field and occasionally going deep. Keep a close eye on him in the preseason. His health is the only thing standing in his way of providing top 5 value at a slight discount, but the uncertainty of his recovery obviously plays a role. Keep a close eye on how he looks this preseason, but I think a slow start will prevent him from being a bargain. Honestly, I'd rather pass.

9) Visanthe Shiancoe
ADP: 100.5 (9th round, 4th pick)
Value: Overvalued

Overview: This one is simple. Shiancoe's value is strictly tied to his TDs, and TDs can be flaky from year to year. I don't doubt that Shiancoe will remain a valuable red zone threat for Favre and the Vikings this year, but I'd far prefer to draft someone who is posting more reliable yardage totals, and thus more reliable fantasy numbers.

10) Zach Miller

ADP: 108.5 (9th round, 12th pick)

Value: Slightly Undervalued

Overview: Miller is my favorite TE value this season. This guy has nearly posted back-to-back 800 yard seasons with an absolute mess at QB, but the Raiders have dumped Jamarcus Russell and traded for Jason Campbell. Campbell is hardly an elite QB talent, but he's a good leader, a solid passer, and he likes throwing to his TEs. The Raiders offense will improve this year, and their WRs are not going to dominate targets. I think Miller's baseline is Chris Cooley during his better years, which is in the mid-800s for yardage, and probably 5-6 TDs, and he has a bit of upside on that as well given he almost got there with terrible QB play. Go get him.

11) Kellen Winslow
ADP: 110.5 (10th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued

Overview: Winslow continues to battle knee problems, but he's been, to use his words, a soldier while playing 16 games in 3 of the last 4 season. Tampa has finally found a solid young QB in Josh Freeman, and their additions of Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams has injected exciting talent into their passing attack. Winslow has a good chance of leading his team in receptions again as their veteran go-to receiver, and while his knees always make him a risky choice, he's a good value at this price.

12) Chris Cooley

ADP: 111.4 (10th round, 3rd pick)

Value: Undervalued

Overview: Cooley was on pace to post his usual reliable stats last season, but unfortunately a torn ACL wrecked his season as well. The good news is that the Redskins upgraded at head coach with Mike Shanahan and at QB with Donovan McNabb. Shanahan has always utilized his TEs quite often in his offense (Shannon Sharpe, Tony Scheffler), and McNabb has always consistently thrown to his TEs. The bad news is that Fred Davis made an impact on the passing game with Cooley out last season, so he'll have some competition for snaps. Ultimately I find it hard to believe that Cooley will have his starting job taken from him, and Shanahan also used a lot of 2 TE sets. He's a bit of a risk coming off of a torn ACL and having a bit of competition for his job, so you should back him up with another TE, but he does have upside. Keep a close eye on him during the preseason.

Update: Cooley is becoming McNabb's go-to target for this team, and with Moss keeping defenses honest down the field, Cooley will have plenty of room to work underneath. Fred Davis might scare some people, but Cooley has re-emerged as the unquestioned starting TE. He's a great value.

TE1 Thoughts: There is a lot of depth this year, and I will have no problem waiting until the first 2 waves of TEs are gone before taking two, probably in the 9th round or later. I would feel more comfortable doubling up on TEs in rounds 9 and 10 (or later) than using a 4th-6th round pick to land one of the early ones. I feel there's too much value at the position this year, and I'd rather use my earlier picks on more important positions.

2010 WR5 Value Analysis

2010-07-23T15:28:00.004-05:00

I'm going to highlight a few guys you should keep an eye on with a flier WR5 pick rather than list everyone:

Mike Williams - Williams is a talented rookie WR with Tampa Bay, and he's been making noise at Tampa's camp all offseason. He is locked into a starting job at split end, and he's going to be a play-maker. His deep speed matches well with Freeman's big arm, but it will probably take a year for Williams to develop a well-rounded game. He should be targeted often to help make up for that, however.

Laurent Robinson - A rookie QB is never great news for fantasy WRs, but someone has to step up in STL. Laurent Robinson looked really good last year prior to a torn knee ligament, and he fits the profile of a true #1 WR with his size/speed combination. He's a solid stash as a WR5.

Devin Hester / Johnny Knox - Thanks to last season's strong finish, Aromashodu is getting picked well ahead of these two. You know Martz will turn this passing game into a good one, and there's going to be at least one, if not two, fantasy contributors from this passing attack. Since this situation is up in the air, it might make more sense to pass on Aromashodu's higher price tag and take one of these guys instead. Knox has been making a ton of noise in camp, and I'd probably take him first. His ADP is rising, and I would honestly have no problem drafting him as high as a WR3 at this point.

Bernard Berrian - Favre is back, Rice is out half of the season, and Harvin's headaches are unpredictable. The Vikings need to throw to someone, and Berrian is still a very good deep threat. He's a great WR5.

Jabar Gaffney - Gaffney blew up the final two weeks of the season, especially in week 17 when Brandon Marshall was suspended, and he heads into the 2010 season as the starting Broncos WR opposite whatever role Eddie Royal plays. He's not a big name by any means, but he's a McDaniels type of player, and he'll produce while he's starting. He's a good candidate stash, and might actually provide better value than Eddie Royal.

James Jones - He's worth a stash in case Donald Driver isn't the same after his dual offseason knee surgeries. He's bee more productive than Jordy Nelson when on the field, and he'd likely start opposite Jennings should Driver fall apart. He's especially attractive if you draft Driver.

Jacoby Jones - Kubiak wants Jones to win the starting job opposite Andre Johnson, and he certainly has the talent to do it, but like several other WRs I've talked about here, he's gotta be right mentally. I think he's an excellent stash if he wins the job given the explosive nature of Houston's passing attack. He's a perfect WR5.

WR5 Thoughts: There's a lot of good talent here, and while it's risky, if you wanted to stock up on other positions and then grab your WR depth here, I don't think you'd be doing yourself a disservice. I really like Mike Williams and Jabar Gaffney as guys this late, but there's a lot of other interesting prospects as well.

2010 WR4 Value Analysis

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37) Antonio Bryant
ADP: 99.1 (9th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Undraftable

Overview: Everything has changed since I originally wrote this. The Bengals signed Terrell Owens to replace Bryant on the outside, so the best Bryant can hope for early in the season is being the slot receiver. The reason for this replacement was Bryant's inability to get past his knee problems as he's consistently struggled with them this offseason. Bryant is not draftable.

38) Santonio Holmes
ADP: 100.5 (9th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: By comparison, I'd rather draft Holmes as a WR4 than Edwards as a WR3. Given what Holmes has shown on the field the last several seasons, there's no doubt in my mind that he will be starting in week 5 after his suspension is handed down, and he'll have a shot at WR2, but at least WR3 value. The worst case scenario is Edwards blows up and keeps the starting job, and then Holmes plays second fiddle on a run-first offense when he returns, but I just cannot see that happening with the way Edwards has played over the past two seasons. I trust in Holmes talent and think he'll be the leading Jets WR from the point he returns to the end of the season.

39) Malcom Floyd
ADP: 104.2 (9th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Floyd never once met expectations last year. He was expected to be a threat opposite Vincent Jackson, but instead he didn't post a big week until week 17 when it likely didn't matter anymore. This season Floyd has to step up in VJax's absence. I think he'll be pretty valuable while VJax is out based on targets, but after that it's anyone's guess. The thing is that VJax looks likely to not play for a while, if at all for the Chargers again. For a WR4, he's a good pick. There's talent in that big body of his, but he needs to show it more than he did last season.

40) Derrick Mason
ADP: 104.7 (9th round, 8th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Mason, like Driver above, has been an ageless wonder the past couple seasons, exceeding his draft slot while continuing to produce as Baltimore's go-to WR. Mason contemplated retirement, but ultimately signed on to play for one more season. Unfortunately for him, the Ravens traded for Anquan Boldin, so Mason will be shifted into as secondary role as mostly a possession receiver. His upside is obviously limited now, and with the addition of Donte Stallworth as well, his snaps could be scaled back a bit. Furthermore, Mason is at risk for falling off the proverbial cliff production-wise, so it's best to stay away this season.

41) Lee Evans
ADP: 106.2 (9th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued

Overview: Poor Lee Evans. This guy is a top 10 WR in terms of pure talent, but Buffalo has refused to either get a consistent QB or consistent help at the WR position opposite him. It's a shame that most of his career has been ruined by the franchise he plays for, although you have to wonder why he decided to re-sign when it was clear they didn't have much going for them. Unfortunately for Evans, Buffalo has once again neglected those positions, instead opting to return mostly the same offense yet again. Buffalo acquired Brian Brohm who was once considered to be a possible first round talent, but Green Bay thought so little of him that they let him walk instead of being Rodgers' backup. Brohm is in a 3-way battle with Edwards and Fitzpatrick to be the starting QB, but we've already seen what little Evans can do with those two under center. James Hardy has been a huge bust, but only Steve Johnson and Chad Jackson stand in the way of him starting again. All that aside, I think Lee Evans hit rock bottom last year, and I think he can most certainly climb into the top 36 WRs again this season. I will happily draft him as a WR4 this year.

42) Kenny Britt
ADP: 107.5 (9th round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued

Overview: Britt was mostly non-existent in the first half, but he posted a solid 405 yards and 3 TDs in the 2nd half. He is unquestionably the most talented Titans WR, and he should take over the go-to WR role for the offense and be a value pick. However, he showed up to summer camp completely out of shape, so it's clear that his work ethic is a big question. So, this is a classic case of talent versus work ethic, but at a WR4 price, he's a solid player to speculate on. Hopefully the fact he isn't being given a starting job will be the motivation he needs to get himself right by the start of the season. Keep an eye on him in preseason and see if he earns that starting role because he could provide very good value if he wins it.

Update: Britt has had a disastrous offseason, and he will not start. He's nothing more than a WR5 flier, if that. Just don't forget him.

43) Demaryius Thomas
ADP: 114.6 (10th round, 6th pick)
Value: Undraftable

Overview: Thomas is a great WR talent from Georgia Tech who has good size, good speed, and can be an all-around WR at the NFL level. The problem is that he's recovering from foot surgery, and he's still not doing much on it yet. WR is one of the hardest positions to make an immediate fantasy impact from, so any lost time is a red flag on his fantasy value, and it's not known yet when he'll fully return to practice. The other problem is the likely rotation that McDaniels will use at the WR position this year as well. I'd shy away from drafting Thomas this year, but if someone drafts and drops him, keep an eye on him as a possible producer in the 2nd half.

Update: Thomas has suffered another setback with his foot, and he will not be ready to start the season. Remember the name, but do not draft him.

44) Jerricho Cotchery
ADP: 118.0 (10th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Cotchery started off in excellent fashion, but then an injury de-railed his season, and Rex Ryan reeled in Sanchez's passing attempts in favor of a run-heavy offense. I've always liked Cotchery as a player, but unfortunately he'll be fighting for a starting job now with the addition of Santonio Holmes. Like I mentioned in the profiles for Edwards and Holmes, this situation could play out in a number of ways, and it all starts with how Edwards plays the first 4 weeks. I do know that Cotchery will start in weeks 1-4. If Edwards flashes his old form, Cotchery will probably shift to the slot and come off the field more in favor of Holmes. If Edwards falls flat again, it's possible that Cotchery will retain his starting job, and Edwards will move to a situational role. At any rate, Cotchery has the least upside of the 3 not only in talent, but also in situation as well as I don't believe he controls his own destiny. He's a solid WR5, but drafting him as your WR4 and counting on him for a contribution during bye weeks is too risky for my taste.

45) Eddie Royal
ADP: 119.5 (10th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Royal was a huge bust last season. Before the season started, there was a lot of talk about how he would take the Wes Welker role in the offense and lead the team in catches. Instead, McDaniels put him outside and made him consistently run deep routes. This year, supposedly, Royal is actually going to be moved into the slot, but it's anyone's guess as to whether that will happen or not. The fact is that outside of Demaryius Thomas, who isn't fully healthy and is inexperienced, Royal is easily the most talented WR on this roster among Jabar Gaffney, Brandon Stokley, and another rookie Eric Decker, who's recovering from his own foot surgery. Keep a close eye on how he's used in preseason before making him your WR4, but he hasn't lost the talent he flashed in 2008. It all comes down to how he's used, and he could provide a nice return on investment.

46) Austin Collie
ADP: 125.4 (11th round, 5th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Austin Collie, like teammate Pierre Garcon, provided a big lift to the Colts offense when Anthony Gonzalez went down for the season. He consistently made tough catches over the middle and provided solid play-making skills. Collie has good hands, and while he lacks game-breaking speed, he's quick and can get open. Unfortunately for Collie, since he's not as talented as Garcon or a healthy Anthony Gonzalez, he has the most to lose if Gonzalez is indeed 100% again. If Gonzalez doesn't make it back from whatever knee injuries ruined his 2009 season, Collie would be worth a WR4 pick. If Gonzalez is healthy, Collie will likely lose his job and not provide any fantasy value. He's a player to monitor in training camp and preseason action.

47) Terrell Owens
ADP: 125.9 (11th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Owens, like the rest of the Buffalo offense, was mostly non-existent last season. Owens is obviously done as a top-tier WR, but I think he can still help out the right team as a secondary WR, and I also think he could still provide WR3 value if he gets a starting job on a reasonable offense. Fortunately, both of those things happened. The Bengals signed Terrell Owens, and he'll start opposite Chad Ochocinco, so he'll be facing single coverage. Just like with Ochocinco, if Palmer regains some arm strength and accuracy, then I think Owens can be helpful in the right matchups. However, if his new team and name recognition pushes him into WR3 territory, tread carefully.

48) Kevin Walter
ADP: 128.9 (11th round, 9th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Walter was a bust in 2009. Owen Daniels usurped his over-the-middle catches while turning Walter into an after-thought for the Houston offense last season. When Daniels went down, I expected Walter to resume his 2008 role, but he never reclaimed that magic he had in 2008. With Gary Kubiak hoping that promising youngster Jacoby Jones can take the secondary WR role and Daniels coming back from his torn ACL, Walter's chances are decreasing by the minute. I'd much rather take a chance with Jones later in the draft than grab Walter.

WR4 Thoughts: We dropping deeper into the WR pool and we're starting to see less and less upside in this group. Lee Evans will be the #1 WR on his team, but his surrounding offense is absolutely awful. Kenny Britt can be the #1 WR on his team, but he's going to have to earn the job by working hard, which is something he obviously did not do once the season is over. Royal could lead his team in catches, but he's threatened with WR committee in Denver. Holmes could lead his team in receiving yardage while he's on the field, but he's suspended for 4 games. Bryant, Floyd, and possibly Owens, if he signs, will play clear 2nd fiddle on their teams, but could provide solid production. I lean towards the guys who will have a clearly defined role for when I need them during bye weeks and injuries. All of the guys I have mentioned in this paragraph apply, with Britt and Evans having the highest upside of the bunch.

2010 WR3 Value Analysis

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25) Donald Driver

ADP: 68.6 (6th round, 8th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: I have under-estimated Driver the last 1-2 seasons, but as I've stated before, WRs get to a certain age, and I shy away so I don't get stuck with someone who falls off a cliff production-wise. Driver was again fantastic last season for the first three months, but then limped to the finish in December, only posting 11 catches for 151 yards in the 4 games. Furthermore, Driver had two knee surgeries this offseason, and at age 35, he's a major risk without the upside anymore. I'd much rather speculate on James Jones later in the draft than rely on Driver to be my WR2/3.

Update: Driver has looked fully healthy in the preseason, so he's safe to draft as a WR3. His health risk and Finley stealing some of his targets will keep his upside limited, however.

26) Santana Moss

ADP: 71.1 (6th round, 11th pick)

Value: Undervalued

Overview: Moss has certainly developed into an enigma during his career. He flashed insane talent during 2005 with 1400+ yards ad 8 TDs, but he's only gone over 1,000 yards once in 4 years since then. Moss has had some annoying injury problems during his career that has slowed him some, but his problems have mostly been because of his surrounding offensive situation. Enter Mike Shanahan and Donovan McNabb. Washington's offense should markedly improve with both of them in town, and McNabb's cannon arm certainly matches well with Moss' speed. Combine that with Washington's aging RB situation and the fact they'll veer towards the pass, and you have the recipe for some value. I would gladly take Moss as my WR2, and he's a steal as a WR3. I would be willing to reach as far as the late 5th to grab him. Just keep an eye if anything comes of his PED situation from this summer to ensure he isn't suspended.

27) Vincent Jackson
ADP: 71.4 (6th round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued

Overview: Make no question about it: Vincent Jackson is a top 10 talent. If he didn't have a suspension and a possible holdout looming over his head, he'd be selected among the top 10 WRs in fantasy. The problem is that he's going to serve a 3 game suspension to start the season, and he's also in the midst of a holdout as he's vastly underpaid as one of the NFL's top young WRs. Besides Dwayne Bowe, VJax presents the ultimate boom/bust value. The best case scenario is that he serves his 3 game suspension, signs his contract, and plays 13 games, probably providing WR1 value during that time. The worse case scenario is that he serves his 3 game suspension, and then he holds out an extra 7 games. The 10 game mark is key because if he misses more than that, then he loses a year towards free agency, and he'd have to deal with this mess again next season rather than become a free agent. His value becomes a battle between the resolve of VJax and G.M. A.J. Smith, and Smith has not been known to back down. Honestly I think Smith should pony up some up-front money to keep him happy as teams are hampered in their ability to sign players to long-term deals at the moment with the CBA looming. Drafting VJax makes sense if you can get him as a WR4, but drafting him as someone you expect week 1 contributions from is too dangerous. It's completely unknown if or how long he'll hold out past his 3 game suspension.

Update: This situation is a mess. There was at least one trade offer on the table, but the Chargers felt they didn't receive enough in return. Saturday morning marked Jackson getting another 3 games tacked on, so while with the Chargers, he will miss at least 6 games, and I doubt he plays at that point. His best bet is a trade, and hopefully the NFLPA will step in and rule that the additional 3 games the Chargers gave him won't be transferred to a new team. It would obviously help his trade value.

28) Mike Wallace

ADP: 73.0 (7th round, 1st pick)

Value: Slightly Undervalued

Overview: Wallace burst onto the scene as a rookie, and he was so good that Pittsburgh cut the cord on Santonio Holmes after his latest run-in with the law. There's no way they would have dumped Holmes unless they were positive that Wallace could step up and provide similar production. Wallace is an outstanding deep threat and is developing into a fine all-around WR. The only reservation I have about him is while Big Ben is serving his suspension. Pittsburgh's offensive line is weak, and while Roethlisberger's athleticism allows him to still make plays down the field, stand-in starter Byron Leftwich is the EXACT opposite of an athletic QB. If Leftwich isn't getting time, Wallace won't get the ball down the field. This is very similar to the situation that Jennings ran into during the first half of last season. I expect Wallace to be an impact fantasy WR with WR2 value when Big Ben returns, but be careful during the first month. I wouldn't take him as my WR2 as I think you'll handicap yourself during that first month.

29) Robert Meachem
ADP: 75.3 (7th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Meachem has always been an intriguing talent since he was drafted, but he didn't put together production until last season. He was kinda quiet in the first half outside of one big game, but he put together a nice 2nd half with 426 yards and 6 TDs. He needs to become more consistent from game-to-game, but in an offense as good as New Orleans, and with the Saints looking for that steady WR opposite Marques Colston, Meachem has upside. He's a risk thanks to that lack of consistency so far, but his situation and talent make him an appealing WR3 if he can put it all together. He's best paired with a solid WR4 in case he busts.

Update: Henderson has been running ahead of Meachem thanks to his battle with a toe injury, so I wouldn't go drafting Meachem as a WR3 considering it seems likely he'll get off to a slow start. I like his prospects over the course of the season and would still draft him as a WR4.

30) Braylon Edwards

ADP: 79.5 (7th round, 7th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Speaking of enigmas, is there a bigger one than Braylon Edwards? After turning in a monster season in 2007, Edwards has tossed up back-to-back miserable efforts. His talent certainly isn't the problem as he is a big, fast WR who can get open without a problem. It's not injuries as he hasn't suffered one since his big season. It's simply a lack of dedication to his craft. He continues to drop inexcusable passes and simply does not try hard all the time. He looked rejuvenated for about a week in NY after getting out of Cleveland, but he reverted to his unimpressive self afterwards, tossing in 2 good games from that first NY game forward. The good news is that he has the biggest motivation of his career, and that might be what he needs to get jump started. The bad news is that he'll be worthless to fantasy leaguers if he doesn't start producing. The starting job is his for 4 weeks while newly acquired Santonio Holmes is on suspension, so he'll have a month to prove that he belongs out there. Once Holmes returns, with Cotchery still in the fold, Edwards will need to impress during that month to earn a starting job. There's no question that Holmes has been the far better receiver in the past couple seasons, but I think the Jets would love for Edwards to step up to be an outside receiver opposite Holmes while Cotchery works in the slot. If he plays well, he could be very valuable for the first month, but then targets becomes a big issue on a run-first offense once Holmes returns. If he doesn't play well, then you've wasted a draft pick. I don't think the possible benefit outweighs the risk.

31) T.J. Houshmandzadeh

ADP: 81.0 (7th round, 9th pick)

Value: Undraftable

Overview: Housh severely disappointed his owners last season with a very mediocre performance. Seattle's offense was simply not very good in any aspect, and it doesn't look like there will be marked improvement this year either. Housh doesn't make big plays anymore and is solely a possession receiver at this point in his career. I would much rather take a chance with Golden Tate much later in the draft than take a minimal upside receiver as my 3rd WR.

Update: Seattle released Housh, and he signed with the Ravens. He'll be nothing more than a slot receiver, and it would take an injury to Boldin or Mason to make him worth considering.

32) Steve Breaston
ADP: 83.4 (7th round, 11th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Those drafting Breaston last season should have known better as he was merely the third option in an offense with a QB set to regress, but he most certainly disappointed those who drafted him. He missed the first game of the season, started off reasonably well in September/October, but then he wasn't startable over the rest of the season. Anquan Boldin has been traded, so Breaston has a chance to have a full-time starting gig this season. The problem is that with the retirement of Kurt Warner, there will be less opportunities, and Breaston is also battling Early Doucet for that starting job. I think he's a solid speculator pick as a WR4, but unless he wins the starting job, he has no chance of living up to this ADP. I'll pass.

33) Devin Aromashodu
ADP: 84.8 (8th round, 1st pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Aromashodu came out of nowhere late last season to emerge as the Bears go-to receiver for the final two weeks of the season, so naturally he's a popular sleeper now that Mike Martz is running the Bears offense. He's certainly the tallest of the group, but the Bears' WR depth chart is a mess right now between Aromashodu, Knox, and Hester, so it's hard to figure out who will be favored. At least one of these guys is going to be a good value, but it's anyone's guess as to who that is. As it stands right now, Aromashodu is in the slot while Hester and Knox are split out wide. Normally this would be a bad thing, but in Martz's offense, guys like Az-Hakim and Mike Furrey have become fantasy options playing that position. There's much left to be determined here, but Cutler clearly likes the kid, and that can't hurt as long as he's on the field consistently. There's some downside if he ends up not being the go-to target, but that is mostly balanced out by his upside of becoming that go-to target. Watch training camp and preseason closely.

34) Dez Bryant

ADP: 86.7 (8th round, 2nd pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Dez Bryant's draft-day slide reminds me a bit of Randy Moss'. Both were clearly the best WR in their draft, but character concerns, whether it's warranted in Bryant's case or not, hurt their draft stock. Bryant didn't land in the most ideal situation as he's going to be second fiddle to Miles Austin, but the extra defensive attention paid to Austin should benefit him some, too, as he adjusts to the NFL game. Additionally, he joined a very good QB who's going to have no problem getting him the ball. Exactly how many targets he'll get with Austin and Witten remains to be seen, but he's going to get open and he's going to make plays. The complicating matter here is that Bryant suffered a high sprained ankle in practice this weekend. This will set Bryant's growth back a bit, but I still like his prospects for this season. Once he's healthy, he will beat out Roy Williams. He may start a bit slow, but if the injury makes his ADP slide a bit, jump.

35) Wes Welker
ADP: 93.5 (8th round, 9th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Wes Welker's value is impossible to determine right now. There's 3 things that can happen. Firstly, he could end up on PUP and miss the first 6 weeks, which would make it impossible for him to live up to this draft slot. Secondly, he could start the season, but start slow as he recovers, and end up with value very near to his ADP. Thirdly, he could start the season, fully healthy, and outperform his ADP as a healthy Welker is a top 20 WR. The reports have been overwhelming positive before, but it's rare when you see a negative report about a big name player recovering from a serious injury, so it's hard to put a lot of stock into it until we see him actually play. We'll have to see how he looks in preseason and figure out if he'll be on PUP or not, but as it stands at this very moment, I would not spend a pick on him as a WR3.

Update: Welker has looked good, but has cautioned that he does not feel 100% yet. I think he makes for a fine WR4, but don't expect the old Welker right out of the gate. I've seen him be drafted as high as a WR2. Don't do that.

36) Julian Edelman

ADP: 98.7 (9th round, 2nd pick)

Value: Overvalued

Overview: There's absolutely no reason to be drafting Edelmen as a WR3. He doesn't play outside, so his value is directly tied to Welker. The best case scenario is that Welker goes on PUP and misses 6 weeks, giving Edelman value for that time period. If you're set on drafting Welker I could see grabbing Edelman to be safe, but that's about it.

WR3 Thoughts: There's some interesting talent here. Santana Moss, Vincent Jackson, and Braylon Edwards could all provide WR1 value if everything broke right, but there's a lot of downside to them as well, which is why they're mostly being drafted as WR3s. Wallace, Meachem, Aromashodu, and Bryant are all young WRs that should have a solid opportunity to produce for your fantasy teams this year, and I like them as WR3s as well. These are the guys I'd focus on as I don't see the upside of the other guys at all to be worth taking them here.

2010 WR2 Value Analysis

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13) Anquan Boldin

ADP: 35.2 (3rd round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Boldin put in his usual good season last year, eclipsing 1,000 yards, but disappointing with only 4 TDs. Kurt Warner took a step back last season, mostly due to a bum hip, and Boldin's numbers suffered as a result. Boldin was traded to the Ravens in the offseason, so he now becomes the unquestioned #1 WR on his team for the first time since Fitzgerald arrived in Arizona. His receptions, yards, and TDs should increase over last season, and he has a chance to post his best season since 2005. The question with Boldin is always his health, as he's only played 16 games twice in his career, but his new upside as the #1 option on an up-and-coming offense balances out that risk, and he's a solid low-end WR1.

14) Steve Smith (NYG)

ADP: 38.7 (4th round, 2nd pick)

Value: Overvalued

Overview: Steve Smith absolutely exploded out of the gates in 2009, surprising many across the NFL. The Giants lacked a legit WR heading into the season with the suspension and imprisonment of Plaxico Burress and the retirement of Amani Toomer, but Smith stepped up into the go-to receiver role. Eli will look to continue the improvement he showed last season, and the return to health of Jacobs and Bradshaw should give them some good offensive punch. Why overrated you say? Steve Smith, while he did make an abnormal amount of downfield plays last season, is mostly a possession receiver. This is how he was profiled coming out of USC, and nothing has changed. This is best represented by his 2nd half YPC average of 10.3 as he started to settle into that role as the season moved along. I don't doubt Smith's ability to turn in a fine 2010 season, but I think his yardage total will drop, and he's not a big receiver, so he's not a threat for double digit TDs. If I'm taking a WR1 or one of the first WR2s, I want a receiver that can consistently make big plays and have double digit TD possibility. Smith simply doesn't provide that, so it'll be hard for him to live up to his draft slot.

15) Steve Smith (CAR)
ADP: 40.2 (4th round, 4th pick)
Value: Undervalued

Overview: Delhomme imploded again, and Carolina shifted him into a pure game manager, so Steve Smith's fantasy value suffered accordingly. It was no coincidence that once Matt Moore took over, Smith exploded during the final month for 378 yards and 3 TDs. Matt Moore will start in 2010, and I expect him to play well and hold the job for the 2010 season. Carolina's line is solid, and their rushing attack is potent. Smith did break his arm, but he's expected back right before the season starts, and I don't forsee this being a problem for his 2010 season. I fully expect a bounceback season from Steve Smith, and I would have no problem drafting him in the 3rd round among the WR1s. He's undervalued at his current ADP and would be a steal in the 4th round.

16) Michael Crabtree

ADP: 43.1 (4th round, 7th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Crabtree annoyed those who drafted him by living up to his promise and sitting out for 6 weeks of the regular season in a ridiculous holdout. Once he hit the field, however, it was like he was playing since week 1. He didn't post a 100 yard game, and he only had 2 TDs, but he was consistent on a weekly basis, and he would have been real close to 1,000 yards had he played the entire season. Crabtree runs good routes, is good after the catch, and knows how to get open. He's not a burner, so he'll need to be able to get open deep to join the truly elite. I expect improvement in his 2nd season, especially in the TD department, but he's not a WR1. Don't overdraft based on his hype, and Alex Smith hurts his upside. He's a solid WR2, but I'd rather draft Bowe and Nicks.

17) Chad Ochocinco
ADP: 45.4 (4th round, 9th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Ochocinco started off the season on fire and had a big first half, but when Palmer fell apart in the 2nd half, Ochocinco went down with him. It was clear that Ochocinco has plenty left in the tank from a skill set point of view. Cincy added Antonio Bryant opposite him to stretch the field, and they also added Shipley and Gresham to improve their threats over the middle, so defenses won't be able to key in on Chad this season like they were able to last year. His value is directly tied to Palmer's ability to bounceback from whatever caused his arm to go limp last season, so if you believe in Palmer, draft Ochocinco, and he could provide borderline WR1 value. If you don't, then stay away. I think he's a solid value as a WR2.

18) Mike Sims-Walker

ADP: 52.3 (5th round, 4th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Sims-Walker went from no name to big name in the first half of the season last year. Jacksonville lacked any semblance of a #1 WR, but when healthy, Sims-Walker provided exactly that. Unfortunately a combination of nagging injuries, something Sims-Walker is no stranger to, and mediocre play from David Garrard caused him to sink in the 2nd half as both his receptions and his YPC dropped sharply in the 2nd half. Sims-Walker has ideal size and speed to be a #1 WR, but his injury history and QB situation will continue to hold him back. If he's healthy for 16 games, he has the ability to slightly exceed his ADP, but his downside is large. I think he's being over-drafted a bit this season.

19) Hakeem Nicks

ADP: 53.4 (5th round, 5th pick)

Value: Slightly Undervalued

Overview: Now here's a young WR I really like. Nicks started slow thanks to an injury, but he was unfairly stuck behind Mario Manningham during the middle of the season prior to finally overtaking him towards the end of the season. Nicks is a big, physical WR who can get deep when he wants and boasts the complete package. He just needs to continue to concentrate and not drop catchable passes. The coaching staff is again making Nicks battle Manningham for the starting role, but as long as his head is in the game, Nicks will easily win the competition. As I mentioned above, Steve Smith profiles much better as a possession WR, so I expect Nicks to emerge in the Plaxico Burress role. Smith will catch more passes, but Nicks will provide bigger plays, rack up more yards, and score more. Nicks is a great WR2 in the 5th round, and I'd take him as high as the late 4th round.

20) Dwayne Bowe
ADP: 54.3 (5th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Bowe was a monster bust in 2009. He dropped too many passes, KC's offensive line was a mess for the first half of the season, and Matt Cassel was completely lost all season long. To add insult to injury, he managed to rack up a 4 game suspension, which amusingly did his owners more good than bad as you couldn't start him anymore and watch him do nothing. KC's offensive line should improve in 2010, but it's hard to say how much. Charlie Weis was hired to tutor Matt Cassel, so he's being coached by a good offensive mind and QB coach. I expect improvement, but I have no idea how much. Chris Chambers looked revived last season and will be a solid option across the field from him. Jamaal Charles provides an explosive option at RB, so there's more talent to help him out than last season. There's no question that Bowe has the talent to be a fantasy WR1, but his QB situation and concentration remain concerns. I saved the best news for last, and that's his improved dedication this offseason. He attended Larry Fitzgerald's camp, and that camp did wonders for Sidney Rice last season. Considering the camp is obviously optional, it shows that Bowe might be taking the necessary steps to capitalize on his immense talent. Weis is also excellent with WRs, and coach Haley has been open with his praise. Things are looking up for Bowe.

21) Percy Harvin
ADP: 56.2 (5th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Percy Harvin won Offensive ROY for 2009, and there's no question he deserved it. Harvin is explosive, tough as nails, and versatile. He lined up all over the field and made plays no matter where he was. There are three problems with Harvin in 2010. First of all, like I mentioned with Sidney Rice, Favre is due to regress, so receiving numbers and TDs will be down across the board. Secondly, Harvin is still battling migraines, and given the unpredictable nature of them, he might miss another game or three this season. Thirdly, and probably least important, Harvin does play the slot as Berrian lines up outside, so he's not on the field as much as the WRs being drafted around him. Harvin will produce as long as he's healthy and getting his touches, but drafting him as a WR2 is reaching given the aforementioned above reasons. If everything breaks right, Harvin will produce like a WR2, but drafting him with those expectations is a bit much.

Update: With Rice out at least 8 weeks, Harvin will be the focal point of the passing attack. He has big upside and is an excellent WR2.

22) Pierre Garcon

ADP: 60.5 (5th round, 12th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Garcon came out of nowhere in 2009 to be a solid fantasy contributor at the WR3 position. I love his skills and believe he has the speed and after-the-catch ability to stay on the outside and line up opposite Reggie Wayne in 2010. He's certainly more talented than Austin Collie, and he definitely profiles as the better outside receiver. Anthony Gonzalez's return complicates things a little bit, but it'd be impossible for the Colts to ignore Garcon's contributions last season. The problem is that while the Colts are an explosive, pass-first offense, there are a lot of mouths to feed here. He's being drafted as if he's the starter, and if that holds up, he should provide borderline WR2 value. Keep a close eye on how the Colts handle their WR situation this preseason.

23) Hines Ward
ADP: 63.7 (6th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Hines Ward continually defies logic and produces solid fantasy value each season. Ward posted the 2nd best yardage total of his career in 2009, but there's a lot working against him in 2010. First of all, Big Ben is suspended for 4 games, so the passing game will probably be erratic. Secondly, Ward will be 34 when the season starts, and I personally shy away from WRs before they start hitting the wall at the end of their career. The good news is as the possession receiver of the team, he'll likely be relied upon by whomever starts in weeks 1-4 for the Steelers. Keep an eye on him in the preseason to ensure he's healthy and recovered from last season's knee injury, but I'd much rather have Ward as a solid WR3 than a WR2 this season.

24) Jeremy Maclin

ADP: 65.8 (6th round, 6th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Maclin was a wildly productive receiver at Missouri during his college days, but he mostly played in the slot. That's what made his relatively smooth transition to an outside NFL WR so impressive. Maclin isn't a pure burner like teammate DeSean Jackson, but he's a good route runner, quick, and knows how to get open, so he's an excellent complement on the other side of the field. I'm high on Kevin Kolb this season, so the transition from McNabb to Kolb should not be a concern, and their muddled backfield will mean Philly will stay a pass-first team. I like Maclin's prospects for 2010, and I think he has a very good chance to meet or slightly exceed his draft status this season.

WR2 Thoughts: My WR2 philosophy is simple. If I'm picking one in the 3rd or 4th rounds, they must possess the talent and situation to perform like a WR1. If I'm picking one in the 5th or 6th round, I try to limit my downside and go for the safer option, but not one that doesn't lack upside. Steve Smith from the Panthers, Hakeem Nicks, and Dwayne Bowe present the biggest upside here, while Boldin, Crabtree (despite his youth), and Ochocino present safer options. I also like Maclin's prospects this season if you're gonna wait around for one.

2010 WR1 Value Analysis

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1) Andre Johnson
ADP: 7.0 (1st round, 7th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Andre Johnson finished as the #1 fantasy WR in 2009, so he's rightfully coming off the board as the 1st WR in 2010. He's one of the best all-around WRs, Houston's offensive line remains intact, Schaub remains the QB, and they added Ben Tate to the backfield in an attempt to shore up their backfield. Houston will remain a pass-first team Johnson is set up for another big season, and you're paying for his consistency. After the top 6 RBs are off the board, the RB situation gets a bit murky with SJax's back injury, Mendenhall's unclear role, and Greene's lack of a track record. It's probably best if you opt for AJ's guaranteed production and track record at that point.

2) Larry Fitzgerald
ADP: 11.7 (1st round, 11th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Despite the fact Kurt Warner's hip injury hindered his ability to throw deeper routes, Fitz performed just fine as the #1 WR taken last season, and his red zone ability kept his fantasy value sky high as he set a career high in TDs. Unfortunately Kurt Warner has retired, and Matt Leinart is now the starting QB. Anquan Boldin was traded to Baltimore, so Fitz is now the clear #1 WR on this team. We have a couple competing factors here. Fitz has always performed better when Boldin was hurt, so that's good for his fantasy value. Many fantasy outlets will look at his previous numbers with Leinart under center and say he'll be just fine, but they are smaller sample sizes. I think the Cardinals will pass less, and I think Leinart will be less efficient than Warner with the smaller amount of attempts. I have severe reservations about taking Fitz in the first round with sizeable downgrade at QB and the change in offensive philosophy. I think Fitz will still post a solid season, but he's got a few things working against him, and I'm not willing to take him in the first round.

3) Randy Moss
ADP: 14.4 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Moss was business as usual in 2009 with Tom Brady back under center, posting the numbers we expect from him each year. With Brady back under center, Moss's yardage rebounded, and he posted double digit TDs again...there was only one non-Oakland season in which he hasn't. Brady will be another season removed from his ACL surgery, and his nagging injuries from 2009 are behind him. The problem I see here is if Wes Welker isn't right and the Patriots underneath passing game isn't as efficient, Moss will have more trouble getting open down the field. Also, at age 33, Moss is at risk for slowing down a bit, and since his speed is what he uses to get open, there's a chance he could start slowly becoming less explosive. He'll be plenty motivated in a contract year, and only an injury will keep him out of the top 5 WRs.

Update: Brady and Moss have looked great in the preseason. It's all systems go.

4) Reggie Wayne
ADP: 17.4 (2nd round, 5th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Reggie Wayne had an interesting 2009 season. On the surface, his numbers were just fine. If you look closer, from weeks 11-16, he only had one 100 yard game and he only scored twice, far off his pace from weeks 1-10. Anyone who owned him last year, myself included, was disappointed about how he limped to the finish. There really isn't much of an explanation for why that happened as he wasn't hurt. Regardless of this, Wayne is not showing signs of slowing down, and he's still the clear #1 WR in Indy. Indy did not lose anyone this offseason, so their offense will remain elite. While he doesn't have the ceiling that some of the younger options drafted below him have, he has a higher floor, and there's a price to pay for yearly consistency. Wayne is still one of the safest WRs to draft, and the middle of the 2nd round seems just right for his production.

5) Calvin Johnson
ADP: 18.9 (2nd round, 7th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued

Overview: Calvin Johnson was a pretty big bust last season, but it certainly wasn't his fault. Stafford was a rookie QB, when Stafford was hurt their backup QBs were terrible, and most importantly, the Lions didn't field a single player that would take attention away from Johnson. That will all change in 2010. Matthew Stafford is healthy again and a year more mature, and the Lions added Jahvid Best, Nate Burleson, and Tony Scheffler. While Burleson and Scheffler aren't game breakers, they are legitimate receiving options that the defenses have to account for, and Best is a potential game breaker at RB both running and receiving. Johnson has the best surrounding situation of his career, and it would not surprise me to see a career year from him in 2010. There's no receiver I'd rather draft this season.

6) Miles Austin
ADP: 20.9 (2nd round, 9th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Miles Austin often went undrafted last season as he was buried on the depth chart, but after an injury to Roy Williams opened the door for him in the starting lineup, and Austin never looked back. Austin has good speed, good hands, and is a terror after the catch. Dallas mostly returns their same offense with a trio of good RBs, and they drafted WR Dez Bryant whom will likely replace Roy Williams in the starting lineup. Austin and Bryant are arguably one of the most talented WR duos in the NFL as Bryant is already NFL-ready. Austin is for real, and I expect a similar performance from last year. The extra attention he'll receive as a result of last year's breakout will mostly be off-set by the addition of Dez Bryant and the continued presence of Jason Witten.

7) Brandon Marshall
ADP: 23.8 (1st round, 8th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Marshall was a disappointment in the first half last year, but he waas huge in the 2nd half and his overall numbers were about what people expected. Unfortunately his continued immaturity resulted in a week 17 suspension in when his team needed him most, and he was traded in the offseason to the Miami Dolphins. Honestly, though, it doesn't change his fantasy value that much. He has upgraded at QB as Chad Henne is a better talent than Kyle Orton, and he most certainly has a stronger arm. Marshall will still be the go-to receiver for his team, and he's supported by a strong running game. A potential problem is that Marshall underwent another offseason hip surgery, but he's expected to be 100% come training camp. Keep an eye on him and make sure he looks good this preseason. I like Marshall's talent and his new situation is fine, but he's not going to be in as explosive of an offense as the couple receivers being drafted right after him. Marshall is a solid WR1, but I think there's a bit more potential with the next couple WRs.

8) Roddy White
ADP: 24.9 (3rd round, 1st pick)
Value: Undervalued

Overview: White, along with Calvin Johnson, are my two favorite WR1s this season. Last season White started out slow, caught absolute fire, but then injuries to Michael Turner and Matt Ryan de-railed the entire offense. Both Ryan and Turner are back to 100%, and this offense is going to score points. White is the unquestioned #1 on his team, but the running game of Michael Turner and the presence of Tony Gonzalez and hopefully the speed of Harry Douglas will keep enough attention off of White. The Falcons will be in more passing formations, more hurry-up offense situations (by design), and this will lead to more opportunities for White to make big plays. He's a stud WR1 who is coming at a slight discount this year thanks to a disappointing 2009, but I would take him anywhere in the 2nd round and feel fully confident about the selection.

9) DeSean Jackson
ADP: 28.1 (3rd round, 4th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Jackson led the world in big play TDs last season, elevating his rookie breakout season into becoming one of the NFL's most dangerous WRs. Donovan McNabb and his cannon arm are gone, but the more accurate Kevin Kolb will be taking over. Jackson showed a great rapport with Kolb last season during his brief time on the field, so
it shouldn't impact Jackson's fantasy value too much. Kolb won't throw as many bombs to Jackson as he doesn't possess the same arm strength that McNabb does, but he'll lead him well on routes and allow him to take advantage of his after-the-catch elusiveness. Jackson carries a bit of risk because we can't say for sure how well Kolb will play in his first full season, and he's not a TD machine in the redzone due to his lack of size, so he carries some downside as well. He has a chance to land somewhere near the top 10 as long as Kolb doesn't fall flat, but since Jackson won't be hitting as many big plays, I think there's a chance for disappointment here.

10) Greg Jennings
ADP: 29.7 (3rd round, 6th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued

Overview: Jennings, like Brandon Marshall, suffered from a poor first half. The GB line was a mess, and since Jennings is primarily a deep threat, Rodgers simply didn't have enough time to get the ball to him down the field. Fortunately for his owners, the Packers shored up their line with the re-signing of Mark Tauscher, and Jennings had a much better second half of the season. He had the same amount of catches, but his YPC went up 3.5 yards. His TDs remained a problem as he only scored 4 all season, but you can bet that he'll score more this season. He's not a redzone target, but his short route running is excellent, and he came somewhat make up for it. With Donald Driver now 35 years old and coming off of dual offseason knee surgeries, expect Jennings to be the go-to receiver all year and possibly post his best season to date. Jennings is definitely a WR to target.

11) Marques Colston
ADP: 31.1 (3rd round, 7th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Colston stayed healthy for 16 games, but he still fell a bit short of expectations. He only caught 70 passes, so he didn't get as many opportunities as many #1 receivers have. I think it's mostly a factor of Brees willing to spread the ball around to whomever is open rather than Colston being the top target he looks to on most plays. The Saints return their entire offensive system, so while Colston can improve a bit with more receptions, it's anyone's guess as to whether or not he'll get them. While Colston has never been seriously injured, he has a tendency to get banged up and either miss a few games or play ineffectively through the injury. Colston is a safe pick as the #1 WR on an elite offense, but he's not a truly explosive option, and I don't think he has the upside people originally saw when he first exploded onto the scene.

12) Sidney Rice
ADP: 33.1 (3rd round, 9th pick)
Value: Undraftable?

Overview: Sidney Rice, along with Miles Austin, probably helped win some fantasy titles last season. Both receivers were either endgame picks or waiver wire darlings who exploded into the upper echelon of fantasy WRs in 2009. Rice is now being drafted as a WR1, but I'm concerned about a repeat. First of all, Brett Favre is going to regress from his career year in 2009, so in accordance with that, there will be less yards and TDs to go around. Secondly, Rice had some sort of mysterious hip injury that he had surgery on this offseason, but little is known about it, and he's done next to nothing all offseason so far. Considering the injury problems Rice has had in his early NFL career, this warrants monitoring. If Rice is healthy, he should come close to last year's numbers, but there's a couple red flags here, and I'd rather pass to draft someone else.

Update: Rice underwent hip surgery, and he'll be out at least 8 weeks. You can draft him as a WR5, but there's an outside chance that he might not play at all this season.

WR1 Thoughts: There's a mixed bag this year in the top 12. First the negatives. Fitzgerald, Marshall, and Jackson will be playing with new QBs this season, while Marshall is on a whole new team. Fitzgerald and Marshall will also play on the worst projected passing offenses of the bunch. I know I'm omitting the Lions, but I think with all the upgrades they've made, they'll see a sizeable jump in passing production. Rice's production was tied to Favre's career year, and he's probably going to regress. Marshall and Rice both had offseason hip surgeries. The positives are the slightly deflated values of Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, and Greg Jennings due to various problems last season. I don't think you'll see Calvin Johnson this low for a while. There's a little something for everyone in this tier, and outside of Rice, you should try your best to land one of them.

2010 RB5 Value Analysis

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I'm going to highlight a few guys you should keep an eye on with a flier RB5 pick rather than list everyone:

Arian Foster - Foster should start moving up the ADP ranks, but he's the Houston starter and will need to play himself out of that position. While he doesn't have a lot of job security thanks to the presence of 2nd round pick Ben Tate, Tate's offseason injury has allowed Foster to impress the coaching staff. He looked good in the first 2 weeks of 2009, and he's continued that with an impressive offseason. It's rare you can land a potential starting RB this late, so I would be all over Foster as a RB4/5.

Marshawn Lynch - If he stays in Buffalo, he's worth stashing should something happen to Fred Jackson as Lynch would start over Spiller, but if he's traded, he could get a crack at a bigger role. Monitor to see if he changes teams before week 1.

Leon Washington - Keep an eye on his health. If he looks explosive this fall, he's worth a flier while the Seattle RB situation sorts itself out. He'll have a role if he can still move well.

Tashard Choice - If Barber isn't effective anymore, Choice will likely assume his role. Felix Jones is not a 20-25 carry back, so he's a decent speculatory pick.

Arian Foster - Foster has a true chance to start in week 1 for Houston, and if he plays well, he's going to stay starting. Given the explosiveness of Houston's offense, Foster is well worth a flier.

Derrick Ward - I think he'll end up with more fantasy value than Cadillac Williams. Don't forget about him.

Toby Gerhart/Bernard Scott/Javon Ringer/Jason Snelling - Pure backups to early RB selections.

2010 RB4 Value Analysis

2010-07-21T18:25:00.006-05:00

37) Cadillac Williams
ADP: 89.4 (8th round, 5th pick)
Value: Overvalued

Overview: Caddy was an awesome story last season. After multiple serious knee surgeries that have ruined his career, Caddy came back and performed admirably well as the starter last season, despite the acquisition of free agent Derrick Ward. Tampa Bay's offensive line is decent, Josh Freeman is a good young QB, and they added a lot of talent to the WR position by drafting rookies Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams. The problem is that while Williams ran fairly well last season, he lost his explosion and wasn't too much of a fantasy factor. Add in the huge injury risk, and there are better choices out there.

38) Thomas Jones
ADP: 89.6 (8th round, 5th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Thomas Jones put together another huge season last year for fantasy purposes, but towards the second half of the season, he was far more reliant on his offensive line as he broke/eluded far less tackles than he had in previous seasons before a knee injury severely hampered him in the playoffs. He's in amazing shape for being 32 years old, but he's very old in RB years, and he is at risk of falling off the cliff. He'll hold some value behind Jamaal Charles as the likely short yardage/goal line back and backup, but he just doesn't have enough left anymore to truly challenge Charles for a starting job. He's a nice choice for Charles owners, but most others will want to steer clear.

39) Steve Slaton
ADP: 93.9 (8th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Slaton got off to a terrible start in 2009 by constantly fumbling, he lost his job, and then a neck injury shut him down in the first half of the season shut him down for the rest. Needless to say, he didn't live up to expectations. Slaton will supposedly be 100% in time for week 1, but with both Arian Foster and Ben Tate now ahead of him for early down work, Slaton is merely a 3rd down/change-of-pace RB these days, so I'd much rather invest a RB4 pick into someone who could at least start should an injury happen ahead of him. Slaton would need 2, and even then Houston would probably rather acquire someone to take the early down role.

Update: Ben Tate's season-ending injury has vaulted Arian Foster into the starting job, and Slaton failed to capitalize by fumbling a goal line carry in the first preseason game. Slaton will be a solid 3rd down and change-of-pace back, but he lacks upside as someone who just isn't a starting NFL RB.

40) Donald Brown
ADP: 94.6 (8th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Some expected Brown to take the starting job at some point last season, but while a shoulder injury held him back, Addai played too well in his role to lose his job. Brown did show far more explosion and the ability to hit big plays than Addai ever has. Addai is in a contract year, and the Colts will want to see what they have in Brown with Addai possibly leaving after the season. Addai probably isn't going to lose his job barring injury, but Brown will definitely have a bigger role this season, and he has the upside for more. Brown is an ideal RB4 pick with the ability to have lots of fantasy value later in the season if things go right.

41) Clinton Portis
ADP: 96.5 (8th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: I'm probably in the minority, but I think Clinton Portis can somewhat bounce back this season. This greatly hinges on how he looks in the preseason, however. If he looks slow and, well, old, then all bets are off and he'll probably bust again. Portis is only 29, but he has a LOT of carries on his legs already. However, if he looks fresh this fall, given he's only battling the even more over-the-hill Larry Johnson and Willie Parker, maybe new Redskins (and Portis' old) coach Mike Shanahan can squeeze another productive year out of him. Portis has dropped some weight and improved his conditioning, so hopefully that will allow him to regain some explosiveness. The Skins line is a question mark, but Shanahan will get as much out of them as he can. McNabb is a big upgrade at QB and will help move the ball. Portis is one veteran, thanks to his situation, that I wouldn't have a problem taking a chance on.

Update: Portis is no longer undervalued. His running in the preseason has proven that he lacks explosiveness, and while he'll start for Washington, he just isn't going to be a very exciting fantasy property. He's a decent RB4 for depth, but nothing more.

42) Laurence Maroney
ADP: 112.8 (10th round, 5th pick)
Value: Overvalued

Overview: Maroney was finally given a chance to be the workhorse given the various injuries to NE's ancient RBs (Sammy Morris, Fred Taylor), and he performed pretty well, posting solid RB2 numbers along the way thanks to consistent scoring chances. However, after his 4th lost fumble in a 7 game span, he was benched and barely saw the field after that. Maroney is battling both Morris and Taylor once again for carries, and if he can simply hang onto the ball, he'll win that job and provide excellent fantasy value. If he continues to put the ball on the ground, he'll find himself on the bench again. Maroney is in his contract year, so he'll be plenty motivated to fix the ball security issues that plagued him last season. He's well worth the investment as a RB4.

Update: Maroney is buried on the depth chart and isn't getting preseason reps. He's a name to keep in mind, but he's not draftable.

43) LaDainian Tomlinson
ADP: 114.3 (10th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Tomlinson hit the wall last season. After one of longest runs near the top of fantasy RBs ever, LT lacked explosion, and while he kept his fantasy value reasonable thanks to his TDs, his YPC plummeted, he no longer made big plays, and he wasn't nearly as valuable as a receiver. There's little reason to think changing times will suddenly rejuvenate a RB with this many carries in his career, so expect Tomlinson to help on 3rd downs and take a clear backseat to new starter Shonn Greene. There's a chance that Joe McKnight, if properly motivated, could take the 3rd down role and leave Tomlinson as a pure backup. If Greene were to miss time, there would be some split between Tomlinson and McKnight, so there isn't a lot of upside even if the starter goes down. He's a reasonable RB4, especially for Greene owners, but there's better upside elsewhere.

Update: LT has looked good, but it will take a Greene injury for him to matter in fantasy.

44) Darren Sproles
ADP: 114.7 (10th round, 6th pick)
Value: Overvalued

Overview: Even with Tomlinson hitting the wall last season, the Chargers felt more comfortable continuing to use Tomlinson as a workhorse instead of the more explosive Sproles. It's clear the Chargers do not want Sproles consistently carrying the ball, so there's no reason to think that will change this year. Ryan Mathews is the new starter, and fullbacks Jacob Hester and Mike Tolbert would be trusted with early down carries more than Sproles will should Mathews go down. There's simply no upside with Sproles anymore, and there's no reason to waste a bench spot on him.

45) Justin Forsett
ADP: 116.6 (10th round, 8th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: I have no idea what Mike Holmgren was doing, but despite Julius Jones' clear lack of talent, he continued to start and dominate carries. The 4 times Forsett received 10+ carries, he was extremely impressive each time, but they were spread out and mostly occurred in the 2nd half of the season. Forsett is now a part of a crowded backfield that includes the aforementioned Jones and the newly acquired Leon Washington. Washington is coming off of a compound fracture of his leg, and he is no sure bet to regain the explosion he had prior to the injury. Washington is an excellent football player, but when the Jets traded him and replaced him with the washed up Tomlinson and a talented-but-not-motivated Joe McKnight, you have to wonder if they know something about his recovery that we don't. All that aside, new coach Pete Carroll always favored RB platoons at USC, and with no clear starter on the Seahawks, he'll likely employ the same philosophy. With only the sucky Julius Jones and the uncertainty of Washington's recovery, Forsett is the favorite to lead this committee, and he is the back to own in Seattle. He makes a solid RB3 and a great RB4, but since he isn't a feature RB, and probably wouldn't be even if injuries struck, don't reach too much.

Update: Leon Washington looks healthy again, and he's the most talented RB on this roster when he's 100%. This is going to be a committee, and with Forsett not being a goal line vulture, there's simply not a whole lot of excitement here. I'd rather pick Washington later.

46) Chester Taylor
ADP: 117.2 (10th round, 9th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Chester Taylor put together another solid season behind Adrian Peterson, but he priced himself out of Minnesota and joins division rival Chicago. Taylor did see his YPC drop for the 3rd straight year, and scouts were noting the start of his decline, but his receiving skill stayed steady. It's hard to tell if the YPC was the start of his decline or because of Minnesota's offensive line struggling to open up holes for the RBs. He'll be 31 when the season starts, but he has far less carries on his legs than most 31 year olds, and he only has one season of more than 170 carries. He's going to be on the lesser side of a committee with Matt Forte, but he would be the unquestioned starter should something happen. He's a solid, if no longer exciting, backup to own. He's a great fit for Martz's offense and makes for a smart handcuff for Forte owners, but other owners should probably look elsewhere.

47) Tim Hightower
ADP: 118.0 (11th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Hightower's biggest accomplishment last season was being a thorn in the side of Beanie Wells' owners. He did greatly improve his efficiency with the ball as his YPC improved from 2.8 to 4.2 with the same exact number of carries, but anyone watching Cardinals games last season could tell you that Beanie Wells is the far more talented runner. There is conflicting reports on who will actually start, but Wells will lead this carry battle, leaving Hightower to 3rd downs and some situational short yardage work. If Wells were to go down, Hightower would start, but he's been very inconsistent with those opportunities the past couple seasons. He's a reasonable RB4, and a decent draft pick for those who take Wells, but he has little stand-alone value.

48) Willis McGahee
ADP: 138.9 (12th round, 7th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: McGahee was a nightmare to Ray Rice's owners last season. He only received 10+ carries 4 times in weeks 1-16, but he consistently stole goal line carries. It's hard to blame Baltimore considering how proficient McGahee was at the goal line, and the early guess is that the same thing will happen last season. However, as we learned with LenDale White last season, there's no lock that McGahee will keep that role all season. McGahee proved that he can still carry the rock with 16/167 with 3 TDs in week 17, so he'd still have a lot of value should something happen to Ray Rice. He's a valuable handcuff for any owner as a RB4 with upside, but he has little stand-alone value with Ray Rice healthy.

RB4 Thoughts: We're getting into the full fledged backups here. You want to avoid all backups that would still be in a timeshare because they are a waste of a roster spot. There's a couple possible starters here like Maroney, Portis, and Forsett, so you should target them first. Next up are backups that are clearly 2nd in line, and that includes Brown, Taylor and McGahee. I'm not a fan of the other 6 guys for various reasons stated above.