Monday, October 11, 2010
Quick Note
Forgot to state that I'm on my honeymoon, so I didn't post anything last week and I won't be posting anything this week. I'll be back at it next Monday!
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Week 4: Team by Team Notes
I wanted to start writing a column briefly going through each team and talking about fantasy impact for the upcoming week. So, here goes:
Arizona Cardinals - Derek Anderson is killing this offense, most notably Larry Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald's knee isn't helping matters, either. Fitz can be started, but don't expect big numbers. It might be worth seeing what Max Hall can do because we all know what Derek Anderson is, and most importantly, what he isn't. Beanie Wells returned healthy last week, and he's set to assume feature RB duties. Get him back into your starting lineups, and get Hightower out.
Atlanta Falcons - Turner looked just fine, and Matt Ryan continues to throw the ball well. White was held in check most of the day by Jabari Greer, but he still churned out a nice stat line and continues to make the most of his targets. Tony Gonzalez was a new man last week while posting an impressive day and looking spry after the catch. No worries about him moving forward. Harry Douglas simply isn't doing anything at the other WR spot, so the Falcons are probably looking forward to getting Michael Jenkins back.
Baltimore Ravens - Joe Flacco finally had a nice game last week, and he should flirt with borderline QB1 numbers after his cold start. Anquan Boldin was all over the field. Boldin is a WR1 when he's healthy, but if you could parlay his hot start into a trade for someone like Roddy White or Reggie Wayne, do it as Boldin is always a poor bet to play 16 games. Ray Rice will be a game time decision this week after suffering a knee bruise last week, but luckily they play early, so make sure you have an alternative ready just in case. McGahee will be the feature RB should Rice not go.
Buffalo Bills - Trent Edwards is gone, much to the chagrin of opposing defenses. Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't very good, but he at least tries to move the ball down the field. It's better new for Lee Evans' owners, but Evans is still only bye week material currently. Marshawn Lynch is the new bell cow for this offense, although they'll often be behind and not milking the clock, so his touches will be limited on a weekly basis. Odds are he's being showcased for a trade, so keep Fred Jackson in deep reserve if you can afford it.
Carolina Panthers - The quarterback play is finally taking a toll on this rushing attack. Jimmy Clausen looked completely over-matched, and while he'll get another start this week, his leash is short. One more performance like last week is going to get him put back on the bench again. I think Matt Moore deserves another look anyways, or at least Steve Smith owners hope so. Williams and Stewart are facing a boatload of defenders in the box on rushing downs because the QB play just doesn't scare anyone. This is going to be a problem until Clausen or Moore start making some plays.
Chicago Bears - Cutler had a bad game on Monday night as he should have been intercepted multiple times, but the Packers are able to bring more pressure than most teams, so it wasn't a huge surprise. Johnny Knox continues to make big plays, but he's not catching a lot of passes, and I think as the deep router runner he's affected most by the bad offensive line. He's still be a solid WR3, however, and he's going to catch some long TDs this year. The rest of the WR group is kind of a mess currently. Greg Olsen continues to be used more than most thought he would, so I'd keep using him until proven otherwise. He's their best red zone threat as a receiver, although Matt Forte is a close 2nd. Forte had a bad game, but such is life when you can't run the ball. He's much better in PPR leagues, but he's still a solid RB2.
Cincinnati Bengals - Carson Palmer still looks like crap, and his huge week 1 is a distant memory at this point. Luckily for his owners, he's still surrounded with enough talent to be a reasonable QB2, and there's nobody else on the roster that would make any sense starting at the NFL level. Ochocinco and Owens will suffer accordingly. Benson had a big game and will continue to be the workhorse, but his owners would be smart to ensure they have Bernard Scott waiting on standby.
Cleveland Browns - Peyton Hillis has given fantasy owners one reason to consider rostering someone from this team. He's taken the starting job from Jerome Harrison, and you can expect a decent workload each week from him. He's best utilized as a matchup play despite the amazing performance against the Ravens. Nobody else on this team is worth a damn.
Dallas Cowboys - The media-appointed Super Bowl champions finally won a game. Romo would have had an even bigger day had Bryant not been pushed out of bounds on one big TD catch, and then he couldn't get his feet down on a 2nd one. Bryant's breakout game is coming, so be patient. Roy Williams obviously put up a huge game, but that screams fluke to me. Bryant is going to take this job. The running game is a pure committee and there isn't much positive to say about what's been going on so far with it.
Denver Broncos - The Moreno injury has allowed Orton to light up the pass attempt stat column. A caution about Broncos WRs like I mentioned under Brandon Lloyd in my waiver wire column: this is a true committee. Lloyd, Gaffney, Thomas, and Royal are all sharing snaps. The Broncos won't throw for 460 yards most week, so there won't be enough to go around. Be careful about who you start here. Maroney started, but he did not look good at all. He'll start again this week, and he can be used by desperate owners as a bye week replacement, but don't expect a whole lot. He's certainly worth keeping around to see if he can turn the corner.
Detroit Lions - With Stafford, Burleson, and Best now hurt, the arrow on this offense is pointing way down. Teams are again tripling Calvin Johnson, although Tony Scheffler has done a nice job. Best has turf toe, and you all probably know how unpredictable this can be. Who knows if he's start, and if he does, how effective he'll be. He's a risky RB2 if he plays.
Green Bay Packers - The passing offense is humming along, and now's a good time to buy low on Greg Jennings. He did this last season as well, but this guy is going to start making some big downfield plays sooner than later. It's just a matter of time before Finley starts scoring some TDs to go along with his monster yardage total thus far. He had one called back on a frustrating unrelated penalty. The rushing attack is a different matter. Brandon Jackson simply isn't cut out to be a featured RB at the NFL level, and John Kuhn is a much better runner. Ted Thompson isn't know for trading draft picks, but the Packers would be wise to see what all is out there.
Houston Texans - The offense took a step backwards last week, but the biggest news here is AJ's ankle injury. Given they're playing Oakland this week, I wouldn't be surprised if Houston runs a bit more and sits AJ out. This would be good news for both Jacoby Jones, who would start in AJ's place, and Arian Foster. Still, Johnson is a gamer and will do everything he can to get onto the field. How big a part of the game plan he'd be at < 100% remains to be seen, however.
Indianapolis Colts - The offense keeps humming along, even with the injuries to Pierre Garcon and Anthony Gonzalez. Collie was a monster, and he'll be a big part of the offense all season. Owners who didn't heed my warning and drafted Addai this year as their RB2 are suffering. He's not scoring TDs, and that's what kept his value afloat last season. His yardage is on a similar pace, but unless he scores, he's not much of a fantasy option. He's a RB3.
Jacksonville Jaguars - This offense is a mess, and it's bringing MJD down. If you sign Trent Edwards and he becomes a threat to start at some point for your team, you know how bad it is. Sims-Walker is a decent WR3, and MJD is a must-start despite the situation, but there's no good news to be seen here.
Kansas City Chiefs - They keep winning, so their offensive problems will keep getting swept under the rug. First of all, Matt Cassel is holding this entire offense down. He's simply not a starting NFL QB as he's looked as bad as a 3-0 QB can. He finally hit Bowe down the field for a TD, but it was off a ridiculous trick play. If you can sell high on Bowe after one good game, go for it. I'm trying. Thomas Jones, despite not being nearly as productive per touch, continues to hog carries in front of Charles who's merely a change-of-pace RB at this point. Until they start losing, don't expect this to change.
Miami Dolphins - Ricky Williams put the ball on the ground a couple times, and Ronnie Brown was on the field more. Williams needs to hang onto the ball or Brown is going to take a dominant lead in this committee. Henne and Marshall finally got on the same page, against the Jets defense no less (granted they're much weaker without Revis), and it was pretty. Marshall should hog targets moving forward.
Minnesota Vikings - All is back to normal in Viking land for at least one week. Peterson predictably had a monster game against the Lions, and Brett Favre looked more in sync with his WRs. Harvin especially looked good. Favre is still making the horrible throws that he wasn't making last year, and I think he's going to have quite an INT total by the end of the year. Don't completely forget about Sidney Rice as he's someone to stash if you can burn a roster spot for 8-10 weeks.
New England Patriots - The passing game is humming along, although I'm sure Randy Moss owners are wondering what's up with the receiving yards. I wouldn't be concerned too much here, although the additional weapons, especially Aaron Hernandez, are cutting a bit into his targets. Moss will still get his, especially in the big play department. The running game is a mess, although injuries to Kevin Faulk and now Fred Taylor might clarify things a bit. BGE will start and get most of the carries if Taylor sits out, and Danny Woodhead is slowly being brought along as Faulk's replacement. Sammy Morris remains a strict backup.
New Orleans Saints - The Saints took one on the chin thanks to the struggling Garrett Hartley. Brees looked good again, and the biggest story from week 3 was the re-emergence of Lance Moore. Skepticism is advised given the spread-the-wealth offense, but Moore's big run in 2008 was directly related to both him being healthy and Reggie Bush being injured, which is the current state of things right now. Meachem and Henderson will play a big role as well, but Moore has a chance to do more damage moving forward as he has far more reliable hands. Keep an eye on Pierre Thomas' ankle injury, although the fact he returned to the game afterwards is cause for hope. Chris Ivory would start if PT can't get ready for Sunday. Ivory might be stealing his goal line carries, too.
New York Giants - The Giants, needless to say, are reeling. Eli has been eh, and Bradshaw has actually been very good, but they got smoked by Indy and then the Titans beat them pretty good as well. The defense isn't playing that great, and it's forcing Eli to throw far more than the Giants would prefer. Bradshaw has been a great RB2, but Eli needs to make smarter passes as his 5:6 TD:INT ratio indicates. He's nothing more than a QB2, anyways.
New York Jets - Sanchez is back on the fantasy radar after 2 excellent performances the past two weeks. Braylon Edwards has made some big plays, and he's doing much more than Jerricho Cotchery, so it looks like Edwards will continue to start after Santonio Holmes returns. Edwards and Holmes give Sanchez some great weaponry, and Dustin Keller has been huge so far as well. Sanchez is a great QB2. LT has taken ahold of this backfield. He was already the favorite for 3rd down work, but he's also taking goal line work as well. He looks fresh, explosive, and is a good RB2 as the leader of this committee. Greene isn't going anywhere, but he's startable at all right now.
Oakland Raiders - Darren McFadden has improved by leaps and bounds this year, and he's taken a stranglehold on the starting job. He's been putting up great all-around numbers. Gradkowski isn't flashy by any means, but he seems to do a decent job of moving this offense. Louis Murphy's emergence has helped, and Zach Miller is always a threat. Gradkowski improves the fantasy prospects of both, so let's hope that Al Davis, for once, stays out of the starting lineup decisions as he loves Jason Campbell. Campbell is certainly more physically talented, but he looked awful the first two weeks.
Philadelphia Eagles - It wouldn't be right if I didn't address Michael Vick first and foremost here. I'm sure you've read the stories, but not only is Vick surrounded by the best talent of his career, he's also matured into a good pocket passer. He's passing first, and he's using his legs to complement that rather than as his primary weapon. It's a good fit behind a leaky offensive line. There's strong indication from scouts that despite facing two awful defenses in his first two starts and racking up gaudy numbers, he will continue his good play against good defenses as well from those who have watched him play. McCoy took a back seat last week in a disappointing turn of events, but he remains a solid RB2. He mentioned that thanks to the extra defensive attention Vick's legs require, it's opening up more holes for him to run through. Jackson and Maclin are both must-starts. The only guy not in on this party is Brent Celek as Vick has had no problem getting the ball down the field. You can consider another starter, but I wouldn't drop him. He's still a valuable weapon.
Pittsburgh Steelers - 3-0 without Big Ben. Pretty amazing if you think about it, although Charlie Batch put on quite a show last weekend against a decimated Tampa Bay secondary. Prior to that game, the Steelers QB play was far from stellar. Hopefully you left Mike Wallace in your lineup for last week's explosion. With the way Mendenhall is running, this offense will be pretty scary once Big Ben gets back up to speed.
San Diego Chargers - Rivers, despite the absence of Vincent Jackson, is making me eat my words for the second straight year. This guy just flat-out gets it done no matter who he's throwing it to. The good news for the offense is that Marcus McNeill signed his tender, so he'll return in week 7 and provide a boost to the offensive line. Ryan Mathews is also expected to return this week, so that's good news as well.
San Francisco 49ers - The offense has been abysmal outside of Frank Gore so far, so offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye was fired on Monday. Given the horrible play calling so far, it probably can't get any worse. Raye claimed he was just following orders from Singletary, but he might have been trying to save face at this point. We'll see this Sunday, but Gore and Davis are the only ones worth starting currently.
Seattle Seahawks - They win at home and look terrible on the road apparently. Hasselbeck has been solid so far, but I remain skeptical about how long that will last. Mike Williams has faded after a solid start, and Deon Butler is coming on. Golden Tate is also receiving more offensive snaps, so this is a mess currently. Tate is the guy to stash here for a possible 2nd half impact. Forsett has actually emerged as a decent RB3 and Washington has focused on special teams, and Julius Jones has thankfully been rarely used. He's a decent bye week replacement this week against St. Louis.
St. Louis Rams - Sam Bradford has been better than anyone expected thus far, and so has Mark Clayton. The two clearly have a nice connection going, and it's made Bradford a legit QB2 while Clayton is an every week starter to this point. Nobody else has stepped up, yet. The bigger news is the groin injury to Steven Jackson, and he's headed for a game time decision, so have other options ready. You can grab Kenneth Darby as a backup plan if you're desperate or hurting due to bye weeks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Not much to say about this offense. Mike Williams continues to impress, and Freeman should continue to improve as he gets farther away from his thumb injury. Cadillac has looked horribly unexplosive, and LaGarette Blount has taken the short yardage job away from him. He might be in line for more carries between the 20s as well, so keep an eye on that.
Tennessee Titans - CJ2K has put his monster workload to good use so far this season, but for the sake of his longevity in both this season and for his career, the Titans would be wise to follow through on their word and attempt to get Javon Ringer some more carries. It's best for everyone involved. It's also clear who CJ2K's handcuff is, so CJ2K owners should make sure to stash him. The passing game isn't doing much of anything, but Kenny Britt should remain in the back of your mind.
Washington Redskins - McNabb has been solid, and both Santana Moss and Chris Cooley has benefited. Their rushing attack is barely worth mentioning, although like I said in my waiver wire article, it's clear that Ryan Torain is the backup RB here and not Keiland Williams. It'd probably be a split between the two if Portis were to miss action, and it's unsure if he'll be ready this week.
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Week 4 Waiver Wire
The pickings this week are really slim...
QB:
Bruce Gradkowski - He's mobile and knows how to run the Raiders offense. He's not much of a QB2, but he's better than a number of guys that might be rostered right now. With Louis Murphy slowly emerging, Zach Miller a great TE, and Darren McFadden emerging as well, the Raiders have a competent offense.
Kevin Kolb - If Vick owners have an extra roster space, it's probably not a bad idea to stash Kolb. Obviously Vick is nowhere close to losing his job, but he runs and the Eagles offensive line is allowing him to take hits. Kolb isn't bad insurance.
RB:
Peyton Hillis - I don't know why he'd still be available, but his coming-out party against the Ravens has surely made many take notice. Jerome Harrison won't completely go away, but Hillis is a solid bulldozer with quality passing game skills. He should receive the bulk of the carries for the Browns and is a must-add in any league where he's still available.
BenJarvis Green-Ellis - Fred Taylor, unsurprisingly, has another injury, but it appears to be minor. Still, if he misses this week's game, Ellis would make a solid bye-week replacement. He'd probably get most of the carries and be the favorite for goal line work.
LeGarrette Blount - Blount has claimed committee duties with Cadillac, and with Williams not impressing anyone, Blount has a chance to make his mark. At worst, he'll split carries and probably be the favorite for goal line duties. At best, he could become the lead ball carrier. He's worth a stash to see how it plays out.
Ryan Torain - With Portis banged up as well, it was Torain and not Keiland Williams who picked up the slack. Torain knows Shanahan's system well, and Shanny has certainly produced fantasy gold out of nobodies, so you could stash him as a RB5 and see what happens.
Chris Ivory - Ivory would be the guy should Pierre Thomas go down, so he's another decent RB5 speculatory add.
WR:
Louis Murphy - He's emerging as the go-to receiver for his offense, and he's playing like a WR3. Add him, and you can certainly use him right away depending on your options.
Lance Moore - In 2008 when he was last healthy, Moore produced great numbers while Reggie Bush was out. In 2010, with Moore healthy again, and Bush not again...his first game lead to 149 yards and 2 TDs. His upside is dimmed a bit with the Saints spread-the-wealth passing attack, but neither Henderson nor Meachem have stepped up, so Moore has a chance to make a mark. Moore is well worth an add and figures to be productive for a while.
Brandon Lloyd - He's going to be a hot add after a fast start and a huge week 3, but caution is advised here. The Broncos have thrown a ton more than expected thus far, and it's doubtful they keep this pace up. Furthermore, there's a strict receiver rotation going on here between Lloyd, Royal, Thomas, and Gaffney. When the Broncos don't throw all game, it's going to be hard to figure out who will have the big game. Lloyd is definitely worth picking up, but I'd be cautious about starting him.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Braylon Edturds is an Idiot
Braylon Edwards was arrested again, this time for a DUI last night. The Jets have benched him for this week, although he'll probably play for a little while. In court today he asked why he was pulled over for illegal tinting when he wasn't driving as if he was drunk. Seriously, Braylon?
Fantasy Impact: Edwards gave his fantasy owners something to smile about last week with a solid game, but you knew he had to screw it up somehow to make it up to you for drafting him. Considering he's not going to start, he's going to be very risky to use because it's unsure how long they will keep him on the bench. It's best to go with a safer option this week.
Fantasy Impact: Edwards gave his fantasy owners something to smile about last week with a solid game, but you knew he had to screw it up somehow to make it up to you for drafting him. Considering he's not going to start, he's going to be very risky to use because it's unsure how long they will keep him on the bench. It's best to go with a safer option this week.
Vick = Starter
The Eagles announced that QB Michael Vick is the permanent starting QB of the Philadelphia Eagles. This comes as a shock to many as Reid said repeatedly that Kevin Kolb wouldn't lose his starting job, but there are a number of factors that played into this decision. Kolb had 2 300 yard games last season as the fill-in starter while McNabb was hurt, and that gave many people, myself included, confidence that he had turned the corner in his young career. However, he didn't look very good in the preseason, and he was off to a horrid start in week 1 prior to his concussion. Vick looked fast in spring training, and his almost comeback at GB was impressive. He then looked excellent in week 2 against Detroit, mostly passing, and he's clearly outplayed Kolb ever since live football started this season. The NFC East looks pretty open this year, and Vick is going to give the Eagles the best chance to win this season.
Fantasy Impact: Michael Vick is immediately a QB1. He has the best surrounding offensive system in his career with DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Brent Celek. LeSean McCoy is a dangerous weapon behind him, and he's also an asset in the passing game. Toss in Vick's rushing ability now that his speed has returned, and you have a very valuable fantasy commodity. His big arm bodes well for DeSean Jackson's big play ability, and he's showing improved accuracy as well early on in the year. He also helps McCoy much like Vince Young did for Chris Johnson last year. When you have a running QB, it creates something else for the D to think about. First up? A poor Jacksonville defense. Kevin Kolb can be dropped immediately in all but dynasty leagues.
Week 3 Waiver Wire
2 weeks in, and it's time to check out who this week's hot pickups should be:
QB:
Michael Vick - Those who grabbed him last week got gold. If he's still out there, you have one last chance to grab a QB1. Andy Reid did the smart thing and announced Vick as his starting QB for the rest of the year, so he's worth a #1 waiver claim if he's still out there, even if he's just trade bait.
Josh Freeman - Much like Sam Bradford last week, if you have a blah backup QB and Freeman is out there, grab him. He's not going to be anything more than a QB2, but he has solid upside with Mike Williams and Kellen Winslow as his primary targets, especially since the running game has been anything but good so far.
RB:
Marshawn Lynch - He started off the season 3rd on the depth chart, but he mysteriously started and led the team in carries last week. The Bills state they won't trade Lynch, but you don't showcase a 3rd string RB, crazily enough against a team interested in him, unless you're full of shit. Lynch is up for trade, and he's probably going to land somewhere. It may be tomorrow, it may be just before the trade deadline, but Lynch is likely to be traded unless he's shockingly the starting RB for the Bills again. Regardless of what nonsense is going here, pick him up.
Keiland Williams - Sleeper. Larry Johnson was just cut, and Portis is a poor bet to play 16 games. Williams has ascended to the backup spot, and he's clearly worth an add in all leagues now. There's a very good chance that he starts at least one game this year.
Jason Snelling - If you were a smart Turner owner, you'd own him already. If not, you're probably going to have competition. Snelling had a monster week 2 after Turner's groin injury, and he's going to be a popular add. A healthy Turner is clearly not going to give up carries, but Snelling is the perfect RB5 as a high upside backup who is an injury away to solid fantasy value.
Mike Tolbert - Same exact situation as Snelling, although he was a far less obvious backup. Mathews owners will have the same sort of competition as Tolbert was very impressive in his absence.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis - Similar situation to Snelling and Tolbert, but he'd probably have more competition for carries. Still, he's the clear early-down backup and worth stashing as an RB5.
WR:
Demaryius Thomas - No brainer here. Thomas put on a clinic in limited time last week, showing why he was the first WR drafted this year. He's a huge target with 4.4 wheels, and it looks like he's finally healthy. He might not start right away, but he's got a chance to do some damage this year once he does, and there's no question he will sooner than later if he stays healthy.
Louis Murphy - Murphy should probably be owned already as the #1 target, even if it is the Raiders passing game. Campbell has looked lost so far, so if Gradkowski becomes the starter, Murphy could post good fantasy numbers. Grab him just in case as he could become starter worthy.
Golden Tate - Purely a speculative add, but the Seahawks WR group is in flux, and I still love Tate's talent. He flashed it on a 52 catch last season. He reminds me a bit of Steve Smith from the Panthers with his smaller size but big heart fighting for balls in the air (hee hee). He's a good stash if you have a spot.
TE:
Aaron Hernandez - Hernandez is a monster after the catch with surprisingly shifty open-field moves. He's on the field a lot more than fellow rookie TE Rob Gronkowski, and with 146 yards through two games, he's been very impressive. Add him as a TE2, and if you're unhappy with your TE1, you could give him a shot.
QB:
Michael Vick - Those who grabbed him last week got gold. If he's still out there, you have one last chance to grab a QB1. Andy Reid did the smart thing and announced Vick as his starting QB for the rest of the year, so he's worth a #1 waiver claim if he's still out there, even if he's just trade bait.
Josh Freeman - Much like Sam Bradford last week, if you have a blah backup QB and Freeman is out there, grab him. He's not going to be anything more than a QB2, but he has solid upside with Mike Williams and Kellen Winslow as his primary targets, especially since the running game has been anything but good so far.
RB:
Marshawn Lynch - He started off the season 3rd on the depth chart, but he mysteriously started and led the team in carries last week. The Bills state they won't trade Lynch, but you don't showcase a 3rd string RB, crazily enough against a team interested in him, unless you're full of shit. Lynch is up for trade, and he's probably going to land somewhere. It may be tomorrow, it may be just before the trade deadline, but Lynch is likely to be traded unless he's shockingly the starting RB for the Bills again. Regardless of what nonsense is going here, pick him up.
Keiland Williams - Sleeper. Larry Johnson was just cut, and Portis is a poor bet to play 16 games. Williams has ascended to the backup spot, and he's clearly worth an add in all leagues now. There's a very good chance that he starts at least one game this year.
Jason Snelling - If you were a smart Turner owner, you'd own him already. If not, you're probably going to have competition. Snelling had a monster week 2 after Turner's groin injury, and he's going to be a popular add. A healthy Turner is clearly not going to give up carries, but Snelling is the perfect RB5 as a high upside backup who is an injury away to solid fantasy value.
Mike Tolbert - Same exact situation as Snelling, although he was a far less obvious backup. Mathews owners will have the same sort of competition as Tolbert was very impressive in his absence.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis - Similar situation to Snelling and Tolbert, but he'd probably have more competition for carries. Still, he's the clear early-down backup and worth stashing as an RB5.
WR:
Demaryius Thomas - No brainer here. Thomas put on a clinic in limited time last week, showing why he was the first WR drafted this year. He's a huge target with 4.4 wheels, and it looks like he's finally healthy. He might not start right away, but he's got a chance to do some damage this year once he does, and there's no question he will sooner than later if he stays healthy.
Louis Murphy - Murphy should probably be owned already as the #1 target, even if it is the Raiders passing game. Campbell has looked lost so far, so if Gradkowski becomes the starter, Murphy could post good fantasy numbers. Grab him just in case as he could become starter worthy.
Golden Tate - Purely a speculative add, but the Seahawks WR group is in flux, and I still love Tate's talent. He flashed it on a 52 catch last season. He reminds me a bit of Steve Smith from the Panthers with his smaller size but big heart fighting for balls in the air (hee hee). He's a good stash if you have a spot.
TE:
Aaron Hernandez - Hernandez is a monster after the catch with surprisingly shifty open-field moves. He's on the field a lot more than fellow rookie TE Rob Gronkowski, and with 146 yards through two games, he's been very impressive. Add him as a TE2, and if you're unhappy with your TE1, you could give him a shot.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Week 2 Waiver Wire
Let's take a look at who we should be picking up this week:
QB:
Michael Vick - There's just no way Kevin Kolb will be ready this week. He's not scheduled to practice until Friday at the earliest, and I don't see any reason the Eagles would rush him back to face the Lions. Vick will get at least one start, but as Reid has clearly stated, Kolb is his starter despite Vick's impressive 2nd half. Vick will be an exciting QB1 this week against the Lions, so if you're looking for a 1 week starter, he's your guy. He's also worth hanging onto in case Kolb comes back and falters again. Vick is ready to be a starting QB again in the NFL. He's worth using a waiver claim, but only if you're going to use him this week.
Sam Bradford - Bradford had a solid debut despite the interceptions, and it seems clear that the Rams are willing to let him air it out when necessary, at least for now. If you have someone like Matt Moore on your bench, I think Bradford offers more upside. He's nothing more than a backup at this stage, but he could prove to be useful on a bye week.
RB:
Brandon Jackson - Jackson is the no brainer, #1 waiver claim this week. Even if you don't need a RB, use your #1 claim on him. He's now the every down RB for the Packers, and while he might not get goal line carries as FB John Kuhn is rumored to be the top option for that role, Jackson is going to rack up total yardage and post some scores. He's immediately an every week RB2.
Peyton Hillis - Hillis is the lead RB for the Browns, surprisingly ahead of Jerome Harrison. They're going to split carries pretty much down the middle, but Hillis is the goal line RB, and he can catch passes as well. He's not an exciting pickup, but he can be a decent bye week fill-in.
Fred Taylor - With Maroney gone, the Patriots have successfully increased the average age of the RBs into somewhere near the social security range. All jokes aside, Taylor has even more job security now, and he's clearly the lead back of this offense. He's 34 and injury-prone, but he's a reasonable end-of-the-roster stash and he can be an emergency bye week fill-in during the right matchup.
WR:
Mark Clayton - Clayton emerged as the go-to WR for Bradford and the Rams immediately in week 1, so he's well worth adding for WR depth. Bradford isn't going to throw 50+ times each week, but Laurent Robinson hasn't flashed in his return from a torn ACL, and Danny Amendola is limited in talent. Clayton has a real chance to be this team's top receiver. He's always had the talent, but consistency has eluded him thus far.
Mike Williams (SEA) - Williams legitimately looked good in week 1. He's not going to blow the top off of a defense with his speed, but he flashed solid after-the-catch ability, and much like Clayton above, he doesn't have a lot of talent to compete with for looks. Deion Branch just isn't very good, and Deon Butler isn't starting yet. He's a huge target and could be a great red zone option for the Seahawks. He's good WR depth.
TE:
Tony Scheffler - I drafted him as my TE2 in both of my 12 team/16 roster spot leagues, but I don't think he's owned in a lot of leagues. He's not going to light up the scoreboard, but he's going to consistent gain yardage as essentially a slot receiver in the Detroit offense. He has the speed to make big plays as well. Stafford going out will hurt his big play ability, but he's going to rack up receptions and could be the 2nd leading receiver on the team this season. He's a great TE2.
Marcedes Lewis - I have to list him here as he'll be popular after a 2 TD week 1, but I wouldn't bother. Until I see Lewis used consistently outside of the red zone, he's just not going to be a consistent fantasy factor.
Jermaine Gresham - Gresham is a player. This guy a big-time talent as a receiver, but his upside is limited by two target hounds named Ochocinco and Owens. He's a solid TE2 worth stashing to see what happens this season, but expect inconsistency.
QB:
Michael Vick - There's just no way Kevin Kolb will be ready this week. He's not scheduled to practice until Friday at the earliest, and I don't see any reason the Eagles would rush him back to face the Lions. Vick will get at least one start, but as Reid has clearly stated, Kolb is his starter despite Vick's impressive 2nd half. Vick will be an exciting QB1 this week against the Lions, so if you're looking for a 1 week starter, he's your guy. He's also worth hanging onto in case Kolb comes back and falters again. Vick is ready to be a starting QB again in the NFL. He's worth using a waiver claim, but only if you're going to use him this week.
Sam Bradford - Bradford had a solid debut despite the interceptions, and it seems clear that the Rams are willing to let him air it out when necessary, at least for now. If you have someone like Matt Moore on your bench, I think Bradford offers more upside. He's nothing more than a backup at this stage, but he could prove to be useful on a bye week.
RB:
Brandon Jackson - Jackson is the no brainer, #1 waiver claim this week. Even if you don't need a RB, use your #1 claim on him. He's now the every down RB for the Packers, and while he might not get goal line carries as FB John Kuhn is rumored to be the top option for that role, Jackson is going to rack up total yardage and post some scores. He's immediately an every week RB2.
Peyton Hillis - Hillis is the lead RB for the Browns, surprisingly ahead of Jerome Harrison. They're going to split carries pretty much down the middle, but Hillis is the goal line RB, and he can catch passes as well. He's not an exciting pickup, but he can be a decent bye week fill-in.
Fred Taylor - With Maroney gone, the Patriots have successfully increased the average age of the RBs into somewhere near the social security range. All jokes aside, Taylor has even more job security now, and he's clearly the lead back of this offense. He's 34 and injury-prone, but he's a reasonable end-of-the-roster stash and he can be an emergency bye week fill-in during the right matchup.
WR:
Mark Clayton - Clayton emerged as the go-to WR for Bradford and the Rams immediately in week 1, so he's well worth adding for WR depth. Bradford isn't going to throw 50+ times each week, but Laurent Robinson hasn't flashed in his return from a torn ACL, and Danny Amendola is limited in talent. Clayton has a real chance to be this team's top receiver. He's always had the talent, but consistency has eluded him thus far.
Mike Williams (SEA) - Williams legitimately looked good in week 1. He's not going to blow the top off of a defense with his speed, but he flashed solid after-the-catch ability, and much like Clayton above, he doesn't have a lot of talent to compete with for looks. Deion Branch just isn't very good, and Deon Butler isn't starting yet. He's a huge target and could be a great red zone option for the Seahawks. He's good WR depth.
TE:
Tony Scheffler - I drafted him as my TE2 in both of my 12 team/16 roster spot leagues, but I don't think he's owned in a lot of leagues. He's not going to light up the scoreboard, but he's going to consistent gain yardage as essentially a slot receiver in the Detroit offense. He has the speed to make big plays as well. Stafford going out will hurt his big play ability, but he's going to rack up receptions and could be the 2nd leading receiver on the team this season. He's a great TE2.
Marcedes Lewis - I have to list him here as he'll be popular after a 2 TD week 1, but I wouldn't bother. Until I see Lewis used consistently outside of the red zone, he's just not going to be a consistent fantasy factor.
Jermaine Gresham - Gresham is a player. This guy a big-time talent as a receiver, but his upside is limited by two target hounds named Ochocinco and Owens. He's a solid TE2 worth stashing to see what happens this season, but expect inconsistency.
Monday, September 13, 2010
Week 1 Thoughts
New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings - Drew Brees started off on fire, but he didn't do much after the first week. No worries here, especially since Meachem and Henderson both dropped big catches in the first half that killed drives. Pierre Thomas put up a goose egg in the first half, but then took over the game in the 2nd half with 80ish total yards, and most importantly, a goal line score. If he maintains goal line duties all season, and there's no reason to think otherwise while he's healthy, then he's going to flirt with RB1 value. He'll score plenty, and while he won't receive workhorse touches, he'll get enough. All of the receivers had down weeks thanks to the low passing totals, but all will be fine. Favre looked very rusty, and he cost his team this game thanks to his selfish offseason bullshit. He was completely out of a sync with a passing game missing it's top play maker in Sidney Rice. It might take a couple weeks to figure out how they're going to move the ball in the air, although Shiancoe looked very good. If he can rack up some yards this season, he could be a nice fantasy TE this season. Percy Harvin owners need to stay patient.
Oakland Raiders vs. Tennessee Titans - Darren McFadden can play football, apparently. After 2 lost seasons marred by ineffective play and constant injuries, McFadden racked up a huge game, and he's going to bury Michael Bush if he can stay healthy. Tennessee has a pretty tough defense, so this was an impressive performance. Let's see if he can do it again. Jason Campbell is going to have to check down to McFadden and Miller a lot this year. CJ2K is in prime form already, and Vince Young looked good in his limited opportunities. Kenny Britt is an after thought and only worth an end-of-the roster stash currently.
Carolina vs. NY Giants - Matt Moore looked awful after a rough preseason, so there's cause for concern here. It remains to be seen if he'll start in week 2 thanks to a concussion, but if he's healthy, they're not going to make a switch yet. Steve Smith just needs competent QB play to be a fantasy asset, so let's hope he finds it. DeAngelo Williams dominated the backfield after another lost offseason by Stewart, which personally surprised me. Stewart has never seemed to miss a beat after lost offseasons, but this one cost him, at least for one week. Expect them to get closer to a split as the season moves along.
Indianapolis vs. Houston - Hello Arian Foster! Foster turned in a monster week 1, and boy did he look like a keeper with how his running style fits this offense. He's a keeper, but let's hope Houston doesn't plan on running him this much all season or he'll break down when we need him most. No worries about the passing game...Houston adjusted to control the clock. Peyton was awesome, but his offensive line is a serious concern. It won't do much for his fantasy value as he'll throw plenty, but it'd be nice for them to get their starters healthy.
Denver vs. Jacksonville - One of the most boring games in week 1. MJD handled a big workload just fine, so his knee is a non-issue moving forward. He was productive, but this offense is going to struggle, especially if nobody steps up opposite Mike Sims-Walker and allows him to be doubled relentlessly. Lewis will score some TDs, but he's going to need more catches away from the red zone to be a reliable fantasy option. Kyle Orton was efficient as usual, and Eddie Royal was used extensively in the slot. Royal has a chance to be the most reliable WR on this team as Gaffney will start having to fight for snaps once the rookies Thomas and Decker get healthy and acquainted with the offense.
Atlanta vs. Pittsburgh - Mendenhall saved his owners with a 50 yard game-winning TD in OT, but he was mostly bottled up all game. This is a source of concern as Pittsburgh already lost it's RT Willie Colon for the year, and now Max Starks is out a month. He's going to have a tough road ahead until Big Ben gets back. The PIT WRs are dicey fantasy starts until then as well. No worries on the Atlanta offense; they faced an elite defense. Roddy White was a target monster, and expect that to continue all season.
Miami vs. Buffalo - Another snore-fest. Ronnie Brown looks healthy, so treat him as a solid RB2. Henne looked pretty shaky, but he looked Marshall's way often. If you own Marshall, hope he can actually hang onto the big plays he'll receive here. Buffalo is simply an entire mess, and I have a feeling that I messed up going after Lee Evans again. I'll learn one of these days. Maybe.
Detroit vs. Chicago - Stafford got hurt again, but he didn't look that great prior to the injury. The bad news is that he'll be out for a number of weeks, and Shaun Hill is a pretty big downgrade at QB. The good news is that once Hill got in the game, he looked Calvin's way quite often. Hopefully volume will help make up for the lack of big plays with Stafford out. Best is a true feature back getting goal line carries, but he got very little room to run. Against a healthy Chicago defense, that wasn't a big surprise. Better days should be ahead. Cutler put up a huge stat-line, and you can thank Mike Martz for that. He didn't have much time, and while some panic is necessary, you can't just look at the "Lions" and assume the worst as their defensive line is much improved. He was also on the wrong page with his receiver on numerous occasions, and hopefully that will be rectified with time. Forte was a monster in the passing game, and it is clear that he's healthy again. He's a good RB2.
Cincinnati vs. New England - Brady looked great, and he would have had a huge game had it not gotten out of hand so fast. Welker looks healthy, and he was targeted plenty. This offense will be very good this year, but it's clear the entire backfield can be ignored. Palmer had a huge stat line, but don't be fooled into thinking Palmer is back to pre-elbow injury form. He racked up huge numbers during blow out time when he was throwing on every down, but he simply doesn't have that same arm strength anymore. Owens was also the preferred target before garbage time when Palmer locked onto Ochocinco. I'm not complete ruling out somewhat of a Palmer revival, but I still don't think he's gonna be QB1 material this year. We'll see. Benson was mostly taken out of the game thanks to the score, but Bernard Scott did more with less touches. Scott is a play maker and might force his way into a bigger piece of the pie.
Cleveland vs. Tampa Bay - Peyton Hillis surprisingly started, and then he also dominated short yardage and goal line work. James Harrison can't be started as he's right back into a time share. Mike Williams looked very good and worth the preseason hype. Once Freeman gets over his thumb injury, Williams will be a fantasy asset. Cadillac Williams looked solid, but he simply doesn't have his speed anymore. Kareem Huggins surprisingly didn't receive a single carry as Earnest Graham was the 2nd RB. If that happens again, you should consider dropping Huggins and finding another sleeper.
San Francisco vs. Seattle - Alex Smith looked like a disaster, although his top WR Michael Crabtree seemed rather disinterested in helping him out, or even being on the football field. I'm starting to get a feeling that Smith is going to be an issue for this offense. Gore got nothing going, but SF simply wasn't ready to play this game. Mike Williams is worth owning from Seattle, and he does indeed look revived. The rest of the offense is worth ignoring for now. Keep the name Deon Butler in the back of your mind in case he wins a job.
Green Bay vs. Philadelphia - Kevin Kolb looked awful being a disgusting offensive line, and then a concussion ended his day and might keep him out for a couple weeks. Michael Vick is most definitely back, and given the shape of Philly's line, he honestly makes better sense as the starting QB. Reid is standing behind Kolb for now, but if Kolb is out for a couple weeks and Vick could play his way into the starting job whether Reid wants to admit it for now. Leonard Weaver suffered a gruesome knee injury and is out for the season, so McCoy could pick up some red zone touches now. He's got a chance to exceed my expectations. Ryan Grant suffered an ankle injury, and he might be out at least a week. The passing attack wasn't as explosive as they were in the preseason, but Philly is a really tough matchup. Finely faced a lot of physicality, but expect GB to adjust and get him open more often. Explosive days are ahead.
Arizona vs. St. Louis - Derek Anderson looked exactly as advertised, and I can't imagine him lasting the season as the starter. Fitzgerald's knee flared up, and it's possible he's in for a slow start. Hopefully he'll get enough TDs to help offset the inevitable drop in yardage he'll suffer from this season. Tim Hightower started for the injured Beanie Wells, and Hightower looked decent, but fumbled twice and will lose feature back duties to Wells once he returns. Bradford looked pretty good for St. Louis despite the interceptions, and he was allowed to throw an awful lot. He'll have some good days and some bad days. Mark Clayton was his favorite receiver and might be the best WR on this team this year. Steven Jackson was productive with his touches and looked healthy. He should be a reliable low-end RB1 this year.
Dallas vs. Washington - This game was a sloppy mess as the defenses dominated. Dallas attempted to offset the offensive line injuries with a lot of short passing, but it bogged down the offense and hurt their ability to move the football. Romo will have better days ahead, and Miles Austin was a monster. He should be a great WR1 this season. Dez Bryant is so much better than Roy Williams already that it's ridiculous. He'll be starting very, very soon. Marion Barber looked healthy and explosive again, but a lack of touches will hurt his value. Still, he should be a solid RB3 this year. Felix Jones saw similar touches, but he's going to need to hit on big plays in order to have fantasy value. He also is nothing more than a RB3. McNabb's ankle looked healthy, and he'll need his mobility to offset his still-gelling line. The Skins badly need another WR as Moss and Cooley are their only capable receivers. Expect lots of targets for them this season, and they should really consider getting Davis more involved. It's clear Davis is not a threat to Cooley, however. Portis got his touches, but he's not explosive at all anymore. He's a low upside RB3.
Baltimore vs. NY Jets - As expected, this was a defensive slugfest, and the only player who posted good stats was Boldin. He's probably not going to play 16 game again, but he looked great and already showed great chemistry with Flacco. Heap also had a big game, but he's nothing more than a TE2 with Mason and TJ Housh also demanding targets. Ray Rice had a rough day, but got plenty of touches. No worries here, but this game again reminded everyone that McGahee is the goal line back. Shonn Greene had a nightmare first game, and his owners should be in full panic mode. He didn't just struggle against a mighty run defense, he flat out played horrible with 2 fumbles and a big dropped pass. LT might see more touches for the immediate future as he looked very good. The Jets passing game can be completely ignore until Sanchez shows a willingness to look downfield.
San Diego vs. Kansas City - The Bolts offense walked into an unexpected buzzsaw in KC and looked pretty lost most of the night. Mathews looked pretty solid, but he was stripped for a fumble in the first half. The announcers brought up a great point that often times rookie RBs lose their "swagger" after an early fumble, so hopefully Mathews can shake it off. Defenses should completely blanket Gates because Rivers just doesn't look comfortable throwing to anyone else yet. Todd Haley is an asshole. Thomas Jones played for 2 series and then the first carry of the 3rd series, but then Charles came in and ran for a first down and then a 56 yard TD. The next series? Thomas Jones was back out there again for the first play, and McCluster even got a carry. If this is how he's going to use Charles, then you can't start him until he's willing to consistently put his best players on the field. Charles obviously cannot sustain fantasy numbers without touches. The KC offensive line cannot pass protect, and it's dragging down the entire passing game. I'm really pissed I screwed myself into taking Bowe again this year.
Oakland Raiders vs. Tennessee Titans - Darren McFadden can play football, apparently. After 2 lost seasons marred by ineffective play and constant injuries, McFadden racked up a huge game, and he's going to bury Michael Bush if he can stay healthy. Tennessee has a pretty tough defense, so this was an impressive performance. Let's see if he can do it again. Jason Campbell is going to have to check down to McFadden and Miller a lot this year. CJ2K is in prime form already, and Vince Young looked good in his limited opportunities. Kenny Britt is an after thought and only worth an end-of-the roster stash currently.
Carolina vs. NY Giants - Matt Moore looked awful after a rough preseason, so there's cause for concern here. It remains to be seen if he'll start in week 2 thanks to a concussion, but if he's healthy, they're not going to make a switch yet. Steve Smith just needs competent QB play to be a fantasy asset, so let's hope he finds it. DeAngelo Williams dominated the backfield after another lost offseason by Stewart, which personally surprised me. Stewart has never seemed to miss a beat after lost offseasons, but this one cost him, at least for one week. Expect them to get closer to a split as the season moves along.
Indianapolis vs. Houston - Hello Arian Foster! Foster turned in a monster week 1, and boy did he look like a keeper with how his running style fits this offense. He's a keeper, but let's hope Houston doesn't plan on running him this much all season or he'll break down when we need him most. No worries about the passing game...Houston adjusted to control the clock. Peyton was awesome, but his offensive line is a serious concern. It won't do much for his fantasy value as he'll throw plenty, but it'd be nice for them to get their starters healthy.
Denver vs. Jacksonville - One of the most boring games in week 1. MJD handled a big workload just fine, so his knee is a non-issue moving forward. He was productive, but this offense is going to struggle, especially if nobody steps up opposite Mike Sims-Walker and allows him to be doubled relentlessly. Lewis will score some TDs, but he's going to need more catches away from the red zone to be a reliable fantasy option. Kyle Orton was efficient as usual, and Eddie Royal was used extensively in the slot. Royal has a chance to be the most reliable WR on this team as Gaffney will start having to fight for snaps once the rookies Thomas and Decker get healthy and acquainted with the offense.
Atlanta vs. Pittsburgh - Mendenhall saved his owners with a 50 yard game-winning TD in OT, but he was mostly bottled up all game. This is a source of concern as Pittsburgh already lost it's RT Willie Colon for the year, and now Max Starks is out a month. He's going to have a tough road ahead until Big Ben gets back. The PIT WRs are dicey fantasy starts until then as well. No worries on the Atlanta offense; they faced an elite defense. Roddy White was a target monster, and expect that to continue all season.
Miami vs. Buffalo - Another snore-fest. Ronnie Brown looks healthy, so treat him as a solid RB2. Henne looked pretty shaky, but he looked Marshall's way often. If you own Marshall, hope he can actually hang onto the big plays he'll receive here. Buffalo is simply an entire mess, and I have a feeling that I messed up going after Lee Evans again. I'll learn one of these days. Maybe.
Detroit vs. Chicago - Stafford got hurt again, but he didn't look that great prior to the injury. The bad news is that he'll be out for a number of weeks, and Shaun Hill is a pretty big downgrade at QB. The good news is that once Hill got in the game, he looked Calvin's way quite often. Hopefully volume will help make up for the lack of big plays with Stafford out. Best is a true feature back getting goal line carries, but he got very little room to run. Against a healthy Chicago defense, that wasn't a big surprise. Better days should be ahead. Cutler put up a huge stat-line, and you can thank Mike Martz for that. He didn't have much time, and while some panic is necessary, you can't just look at the "Lions" and assume the worst as their defensive line is much improved. He was also on the wrong page with his receiver on numerous occasions, and hopefully that will be rectified with time. Forte was a monster in the passing game, and it is clear that he's healthy again. He's a good RB2.
Cincinnati vs. New England - Brady looked great, and he would have had a huge game had it not gotten out of hand so fast. Welker looks healthy, and he was targeted plenty. This offense will be very good this year, but it's clear the entire backfield can be ignored. Palmer had a huge stat line, but don't be fooled into thinking Palmer is back to pre-elbow injury form. He racked up huge numbers during blow out time when he was throwing on every down, but he simply doesn't have that same arm strength anymore. Owens was also the preferred target before garbage time when Palmer locked onto Ochocinco. I'm not complete ruling out somewhat of a Palmer revival, but I still don't think he's gonna be QB1 material this year. We'll see. Benson was mostly taken out of the game thanks to the score, but Bernard Scott did more with less touches. Scott is a play maker and might force his way into a bigger piece of the pie.
Cleveland vs. Tampa Bay - Peyton Hillis surprisingly started, and then he also dominated short yardage and goal line work. James Harrison can't be started as he's right back into a time share. Mike Williams looked very good and worth the preseason hype. Once Freeman gets over his thumb injury, Williams will be a fantasy asset. Cadillac Williams looked solid, but he simply doesn't have his speed anymore. Kareem Huggins surprisingly didn't receive a single carry as Earnest Graham was the 2nd RB. If that happens again, you should consider dropping Huggins and finding another sleeper.
San Francisco vs. Seattle - Alex Smith looked like a disaster, although his top WR Michael Crabtree seemed rather disinterested in helping him out, or even being on the football field. I'm starting to get a feeling that Smith is going to be an issue for this offense. Gore got nothing going, but SF simply wasn't ready to play this game. Mike Williams is worth owning from Seattle, and he does indeed look revived. The rest of the offense is worth ignoring for now. Keep the name Deon Butler in the back of your mind in case he wins a job.
Green Bay vs. Philadelphia - Kevin Kolb looked awful being a disgusting offensive line, and then a concussion ended his day and might keep him out for a couple weeks. Michael Vick is most definitely back, and given the shape of Philly's line, he honestly makes better sense as the starting QB. Reid is standing behind Kolb for now, but if Kolb is out for a couple weeks and Vick could play his way into the starting job whether Reid wants to admit it for now. Leonard Weaver suffered a gruesome knee injury and is out for the season, so McCoy could pick up some red zone touches now. He's got a chance to exceed my expectations. Ryan Grant suffered an ankle injury, and he might be out at least a week. The passing attack wasn't as explosive as they were in the preseason, but Philly is a really tough matchup. Finely faced a lot of physicality, but expect GB to adjust and get him open more often. Explosive days are ahead.
Arizona vs. St. Louis - Derek Anderson looked exactly as advertised, and I can't imagine him lasting the season as the starter. Fitzgerald's knee flared up, and it's possible he's in for a slow start. Hopefully he'll get enough TDs to help offset the inevitable drop in yardage he'll suffer from this season. Tim Hightower started for the injured Beanie Wells, and Hightower looked decent, but fumbled twice and will lose feature back duties to Wells once he returns. Bradford looked pretty good for St. Louis despite the interceptions, and he was allowed to throw an awful lot. He'll have some good days and some bad days. Mark Clayton was his favorite receiver and might be the best WR on this team this year. Steven Jackson was productive with his touches and looked healthy. He should be a reliable low-end RB1 this year.
Dallas vs. Washington - This game was a sloppy mess as the defenses dominated. Dallas attempted to offset the offensive line injuries with a lot of short passing, but it bogged down the offense and hurt their ability to move the football. Romo will have better days ahead, and Miles Austin was a monster. He should be a great WR1 this season. Dez Bryant is so much better than Roy Williams already that it's ridiculous. He'll be starting very, very soon. Marion Barber looked healthy and explosive again, but a lack of touches will hurt his value. Still, he should be a solid RB3 this year. Felix Jones saw similar touches, but he's going to need to hit on big plays in order to have fantasy value. He also is nothing more than a RB3. McNabb's ankle looked healthy, and he'll need his mobility to offset his still-gelling line. The Skins badly need another WR as Moss and Cooley are their only capable receivers. Expect lots of targets for them this season, and they should really consider getting Davis more involved. It's clear Davis is not a threat to Cooley, however. Portis got his touches, but he's not explosive at all anymore. He's a low upside RB3.
Baltimore vs. NY Jets - As expected, this was a defensive slugfest, and the only player who posted good stats was Boldin. He's probably not going to play 16 game again, but he looked great and already showed great chemistry with Flacco. Heap also had a big game, but he's nothing more than a TE2 with Mason and TJ Housh also demanding targets. Ray Rice had a rough day, but got plenty of touches. No worries here, but this game again reminded everyone that McGahee is the goal line back. Shonn Greene had a nightmare first game, and his owners should be in full panic mode. He didn't just struggle against a mighty run defense, he flat out played horrible with 2 fumbles and a big dropped pass. LT might see more touches for the immediate future as he looked very good. The Jets passing game can be completely ignore until Sanchez shows a willingness to look downfield.
San Diego vs. Kansas City - The Bolts offense walked into an unexpected buzzsaw in KC and looked pretty lost most of the night. Mathews looked pretty solid, but he was stripped for a fumble in the first half. The announcers brought up a great point that often times rookie RBs lose their "swagger" after an early fumble, so hopefully Mathews can shake it off. Defenses should completely blanket Gates because Rivers just doesn't look comfortable throwing to anyone else yet. Todd Haley is an asshole. Thomas Jones played for 2 series and then the first carry of the 3rd series, but then Charles came in and ran for a first down and then a 56 yard TD. The next series? Thomas Jones was back out there again for the first play, and McCluster even got a carry. If this is how he's going to use Charles, then you can't start him until he's willing to consistently put his best players on the field. Charles obviously cannot sustain fantasy numbers without touches. The KC offensive line cannot pass protect, and it's dragging down the entire passing game. I'm really pissed I screwed myself into taking Bowe again this year.
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Isaac Redman Wins PIT Short Yardage Role (Not Really?)
Pittsburgh announced today that RB Isaac Redman will get "first crack" at the short yardage role.
Fantasy Impact: It was nice of Pittsburgh to announce this right after the vast majority of fantasy owners, but I've been stating all along that this was an unsettled situation. This obviously delivers a blow to Rashard Mendenhall's fantasy value. Mendenhall will be the 3rd down RB, so he's going to get plenty of touches as the primary ball carrier and primary pass catcher out of the backfield. However, since we all know TDs are very important in fantasy football, it dulls Mendenhall's upside for this season. It's hard to saw what happened in practice, so who knows if Mendenhall lost the job, or they just really love Redman. I assume it was moreso the later as Redman did earn the nickname "Redzone" last preseason. At any rate, I think Mendenhall is still a top 10 RB, but don't get pissed off when Redman replaces him inside the 5.
**EDIT**: A new report has just come out that Mendenhall will maintain goal line duties. Odds are that he won't get every short yardage and goal line carry with Redman taking the ones that he does not get. This is, obviously, good news for Mendenhall's fantasy value. He should end up with a nice amount of TDs, and he's a threat to score 10 or so this year.
**EDIT**: A new report has just come out that Mendenhall will maintain goal line duties. Odds are that he won't get every short yardage and goal line carry with Redman taking the ones that he does not get. This is, obviously, good news for Mendenhall's fantasy value. He should end up with a nice amount of TDs, and he's a threat to score 10 or so this year.
Monday, September 6, 2010
Final Draft Guide Update
I have made my final revisions to my draft guide now that the preseason is over. The biggest stories have been the release and then signing of T.J. Housmandzadeh, although he carries no fantasy value as the 3rd WR for Baltimore, and Hardesty's injury, which has given Jerome Harrison a lot more fantasy value.
I've made edits all over the guide.
I've made edits all over the guide.
Friday, September 3, 2010
Browns RB Montario Hardesty Tears ACL
Cleveland Browns RB Montario Hardesty tore his ACL during the preseason game against the Bears last night.
Fantasy Impact: Hardesty has been rather snake bitten with injuries involving his knees over the past couple years. This is a real shame since Jerome Harrison failed to impress the coaching staff while Hardesty was nursing his latest knee injury. Hardesty started last night and looked great while getting more than was blocked on his carries, but his torn ACL ends his season. Those of us unlucky fantasy owners who took a shot with Hardesty as their RB4/5 can cut bait immediately. Jerome Harrison will be the feature RB of this team for at least the first couple weeks, and he'll be a RB2 during that time as he doesn't much competition for carries yet. James Davis made a nice impression again last night, so he will move into the backup role and receive change-of-pace snaps. Davis can be added as a RB5 in case Harrison falters, and he could push for playing time as the year goes on.
Fantasy Impact: Hardesty has been rather snake bitten with injuries involving his knees over the past couple years. This is a real shame since Jerome Harrison failed to impress the coaching staff while Hardesty was nursing his latest knee injury. Hardesty started last night and looked great while getting more than was blocked on his carries, but his torn ACL ends his season. Those of us unlucky fantasy owners who took a shot with Hardesty as their RB4/5 can cut bait immediately. Jerome Harrison will be the feature RB of this team for at least the first couple weeks, and he'll be a RB2 during that time as he doesn't much competition for carries yet. James Davis made a nice impression again last night, so he will move into the backup role and receive change-of-pace snaps. Davis can be added as a RB5 in case Harrison falters, and he could push for playing time as the year goes on.
Sunday, August 29, 2010
My Big Draft
I had my most important league's draft last night, so I wanted to take a step back, examine the results, and see how things went. It's a 12 team league with a standard starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D/ST. Scoring is standard as well with 30 passing yards/1 point, 10 rushing.receiving yards/1 point, 6 points for TDs, and -2 for turnovers. I picked 5th overall.
1st round: The top 4 RBs went off the board as usual with CJ, AP, MJD, and Rice gone in that order. As I stated in my draft guide, the no brainer 5th pick was Frank Gore, so that's who I drafted. The rest of the 1st round went pretty much according to the norm, although a Pats homer picked at the 12/13 turn and took both both Brady and Moss. Moss was a good pick, but taking Brady there is a bit high. However, it's one of those situations where if that's a player you really want, you know he won't make it back to you, so you have to take him there.
2nd round: I had 2 targets: Calvin Johnson and Roddy White. As long as one made it to me, I was going to be happy. Calvin Johnson went off the board with the 2nd pick of the round, so that made things interesting. The guy that picked in front of me stole the two WRs I wanted last year, but luckily he took Miles Austin instead, leaving me with Roddy White. I think White has the QB, offensive situation, and target-hound potential to contend for the top fantasy WR position this season.
3rd round: This is where things got interesting. I am high on Steve Smith (Carolina) as a WR2 who has WR1 potential, and he was my original target. However, Jamaal Charles lasted all the way to the 5th pick of the 3rd round. After struggling a bit with the decision, I went with Jamaal Charles. Like I said in my draft guide, I think he has explosive lower RB1 potential. I understand Thomas Jones is a threat, especially for goal line carries, but Charles has murdered him in preseason production. This will be a decision that I'll be keeping an eye on this season.
4th round: Not that I wanted one, but all the top 2 tiered QBs were gone now. Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Brady, Schaub, and Rivers. WR was my position of need, especially after passing on Steve Smith, and I always target WR2s that have WR1 potential. The decision was between Dwayne Bowe and Hakeem Nicks, and I went with Dwayne Bowe. Bowe has finally had an excellent offseason showing dedication, and I think Charlie Weis will improve this offense. Chambers provides enough of a threat, especially after last season's performance, that will keep defenses honest. Bowe will be the primary target on most passing plays. The round went mostly according to plan, but the TE run started with Gates and Finley being drafted. The round also included the draft's biggest head-scratching selection, and that was Carson Palmer with the last pick. Unbelievable. Even if you like Palmer, he could be drafted about 8 rounds later.
5th round: Too early to dive into the next batch of QBs, and Finley was off the board. That left me with a choice of a 3rd WR, or a top backup RB. Finley was the only TE that I would have strongly considered in the 5th round, and he was drafted in the previous round. I'm not especially high on Clark or Witten. An argument can be made for Vernon Davis, and I also considered Nicks again, but ultimately I thought Arian Foster provided the best value. Foster is a starting RB with goal line duties for a high-powered offense, and he's going to make a lot of owners happy this season. Another boneheaded QB pick was made in this round, and that was Eli Manning. While I like Manning, it's another example of not knowing ADP as he would have been available for at least another 5 rounds.
6th round: It was still too early to dive into the next batch of QBs, and if I didn't take Finley in round 5, I was waiting until at least the 8th round to take a TE. I already had 3 RBs, so WR was the obvious position. I went with the guy I've been pimping, and that's Johnny Knox. He's a perfect fit for Martz's offense, and while the Bears have struggled with pass protection in the preseason, I think they'll put up enough big games. Plus, Knox has clearly been the go-to guy for this passing attack in the preseason. As a WR3, I really like his value. Round 6 included an awful selection of Justin Forsett, but things went mostly according to plan otherwise.
7th round: This was my worst selection. 6/7 teams picking behind me had a QB, so I should have waited a round as I like Cutler, Kolb, and Ryan about equally. At least 2/3 would have been there, and it's very likely that all 3 still would have been there as the one guy who didn't have a QB chose Flacco. I went with Jay Cutler, and I feel this is a pick that is going to haunt me. I really should have gone with Dez Bryant, and he was taken in the 8th round prior to my next pick. I think Cutler is going to have some huge games, and I think he'll provide better results in the 2nd half once the offense gels, but their offensive line is starting to really concern me. Luckily they play Detroit in week 1, so that has the ability to be a good one.
8th round: Cutler simply isn't an every week starter in my eyes right now, so I handicapped that pick with Matt Ryan. Ryan is going to take a step forward this year, and while his upside is limited by a team who likes to run, he's going to have plenty of passing lanes because of it as well. Ryan and Cutler both have the same bye week, but it's not until week 8, and there's a ton that can happen during the first 7 weeks. At worst case, I take a spot-starter for week 8. It's only one week. 3 defenses went in this round. Very few defenses are every week starters, so I just cannot fathom taking even elite defenses this early in the draft.
9th round: I had 3 very good RBs, my 3 starting WRs, and 2 QBs. Backup WR and starting TE were on my shopping list. I learned from the Cutler debacle, looked at the 7 teams picking behind me, and only two teams didn't have a TE. I liked both Zach Miller and Chris Cooley, so I took a calculated risk by letting this position go, and I focused on the WRs. I selected Lee Evans as someone who, at worst case, will be a good bye week fill-in. At best case, he will approach WR2 value. That talent hasn't gone anywhere, and I love fallen talents like Evans that I can put on my bench. I also really liked Santonio Holmes despite his 4 game suspension, but with Roddy White having a week 4 bye, I couldn't take this risk by forcing me to rely on whomever my WR5 was. I think the emergence of C.J. Spiller will give the defenses something else to focus on, and Roscoe Parrish is finally being used in the passing game. I like Evans' potential. By the way, neither Miller nor Cooley were selected.
10th round: I looked at the teams behind me, and they all had TEs, so I again felt safe letting that position go one more round. I wanted another RB, and I had my eye on Donald Brown, but he was selected 2 spots before pick. I re-looked at the available players, and I went with Montario Hardesty. James Harrison is NOT impressing coaches with his fumbles, and if you remember prior to his late season explosion last year, he was often in Mangini's doghouse for whatever reason. Hardesty is battling a knee injury which has kept him out of the preseason, but thankfully for his fantasy stock, Harrison is not doing anything to pull away. Hardesty will split carries once he returns, and he'll be the goal line back. He has a lot of upside, and he's exactly the type of RB I like to take later in the draft.
11th round: Miller and Cooley were still on the board, but it was only a matter of time before the two teams behind me that didn't have a TE took one, and we were now approaching the time in the draft where teams start taking a backup TE. I selected Zach Miller whom I really like this year. If Miller can produce borderline TE1 value with freakin' Jamarcus Russell, the move to Jason Campbell gives him very nice upside. Plus, Campbell made Cooley a TE1 for years in Washington, so he clearly values throwing to the TE position. It's not an offense that's going to allow Miller to score a lot of TDs, but there's a good chance he leads the team in receiving yards. Louis Murphy should also provide enough of a threat to keep defenses doubling him all game, and hopefully McFadden and Bush can provide additional threats as well.
12th round: Toss-up round. I wanted another RB, another WR, another TE, and I still needed a K and D/ST. I had my eye on Leon Washington, but he was taken a couple picks before me. I selected Mike Williams from Tampa Bay. Williams is going to be their go-to WR all season, and only an injury will prevent him from leading the team in receiving. Josh Freeman might miss the first game or two, but that's hardly a concern as my WR5. Freeman and Williams have shown impressive chemistry already, and I really like his potential this season. A great value this late.
13th round: I had a number of RBs left rated similarly, so I waited. The Dallas defense really stood out at this pick as an appealing defense that was still on the board, so I went with them. I always look at a defense's week 1 matchup when taking one, and with Washington up first, I really liked it. McNabb might not be ready, and how good of a friend is Rex Grossman to fantasy defenses? This could be an awesome pick for week 1.
14th round: 5th RB time! This is lottery pick area, so you take a RB that has big upside should the starter go down. The best bet is to focus on RBs that would have a clear starting role with an injury. I gave a little thought to Rashard Jennings with the rumblings about MJD's knee, but instead I went with Bernard Scott. With LJ gone, Scott is a big, explosive backup to Cedric Benson who will immediately become a RB2 should Benson get hurt. Scott has the talent to be a starting RB in the NFL.
15th round: Backup TE time. I selected Tony Scheffler. Yes, Brandon Pettigrew was a 1st round pick last season, but he's coming back from a torn ACL, and he'll be brought along slowly. Pettigrew is an excellent blocker, and while he's a solid receiver, he does not possess the seam-stretching ability that Scheffler does. Expect a lot of 2 TE sets with Scheffler providing a mismatch for whomever is covering him in the slot. He's got a chance for lower level TE1 value for what should be a much improved offense.
16th round: Simple strategy: take the best kicker available. I went with Adam Vinatieri. I also strongly considered Shayne Graham, and I might make a switch prior to week 1. Vinatieri has regressed the past couple seasons, but he had surgery to correct some injury issues, and he's looked solid so far. The problem is a bit of a catch-22...the Colts are a high powered offense that plays in a dome, but they are also extremely efficient in the red zone, so they actually don't provide a lot of FG opportunities. At worst case, he's going to get a good number of extra points, so just 1 FG will give you a solid game.
Recap: I liked my draft, and I think I did very well in the later rounds. However, I will be doing 2 comparisons this season:
1) Jamaal Charles & Dwayne Bowe versus Steve Smith & Jahvid Best. I would have taken Best in the 4th round had I selected Smith in the 3rd. I'm obviously concerned about having 2 of my top 4 players on a shaky offense, but at least the AFC West's defenses are pretty weak, and Weis should improve the KC offense. I felt I was taking the best player available, so in theory it shouldn't matter come season's end.
2) Jay Cutler & Lee Evans versus Dez Bryant & Ben Roethlisberger. I'm also obviously concerned about Cutler, and Evans versus Bryant should be interesting. Had I taken Bryant instead of Cutler, I would have gone with Big Ben in round 10 as my backup QB. Bryant is a 2nd WR on a good offense while Evans is a 1st WR on a bad offense. I'm very curious to how Cutler will play when I use him over Ryan.
All in all, I'm happy with my team, and I think I have a deep bench. I'm just excited for the season to start at this point!
1st round: The top 4 RBs went off the board as usual with CJ, AP, MJD, and Rice gone in that order. As I stated in my draft guide, the no brainer 5th pick was Frank Gore, so that's who I drafted. The rest of the 1st round went pretty much according to the norm, although a Pats homer picked at the 12/13 turn and took both both Brady and Moss. Moss was a good pick, but taking Brady there is a bit high. However, it's one of those situations where if that's a player you really want, you know he won't make it back to you, so you have to take him there.
2nd round: I had 2 targets: Calvin Johnson and Roddy White. As long as one made it to me, I was going to be happy. Calvin Johnson went off the board with the 2nd pick of the round, so that made things interesting. The guy that picked in front of me stole the two WRs I wanted last year, but luckily he took Miles Austin instead, leaving me with Roddy White. I think White has the QB, offensive situation, and target-hound potential to contend for the top fantasy WR position this season.
3rd round: This is where things got interesting. I am high on Steve Smith (Carolina) as a WR2 who has WR1 potential, and he was my original target. However, Jamaal Charles lasted all the way to the 5th pick of the 3rd round. After struggling a bit with the decision, I went with Jamaal Charles. Like I said in my draft guide, I think he has explosive lower RB1 potential. I understand Thomas Jones is a threat, especially for goal line carries, but Charles has murdered him in preseason production. This will be a decision that I'll be keeping an eye on this season.
4th round: Not that I wanted one, but all the top 2 tiered QBs were gone now. Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Brady, Schaub, and Rivers. WR was my position of need, especially after passing on Steve Smith, and I always target WR2s that have WR1 potential. The decision was between Dwayne Bowe and Hakeem Nicks, and I went with Dwayne Bowe. Bowe has finally had an excellent offseason showing dedication, and I think Charlie Weis will improve this offense. Chambers provides enough of a threat, especially after last season's performance, that will keep defenses honest. Bowe will be the primary target on most passing plays. The round went mostly according to plan, but the TE run started with Gates and Finley being drafted. The round also included the draft's biggest head-scratching selection, and that was Carson Palmer with the last pick. Unbelievable. Even if you like Palmer, he could be drafted about 8 rounds later.
5th round: Too early to dive into the next batch of QBs, and Finley was off the board. That left me with a choice of a 3rd WR, or a top backup RB. Finley was the only TE that I would have strongly considered in the 5th round, and he was drafted in the previous round. I'm not especially high on Clark or Witten. An argument can be made for Vernon Davis, and I also considered Nicks again, but ultimately I thought Arian Foster provided the best value. Foster is a starting RB with goal line duties for a high-powered offense, and he's going to make a lot of owners happy this season. Another boneheaded QB pick was made in this round, and that was Eli Manning. While I like Manning, it's another example of not knowing ADP as he would have been available for at least another 5 rounds.
6th round: It was still too early to dive into the next batch of QBs, and if I didn't take Finley in round 5, I was waiting until at least the 8th round to take a TE. I already had 3 RBs, so WR was the obvious position. I went with the guy I've been pimping, and that's Johnny Knox. He's a perfect fit for Martz's offense, and while the Bears have struggled with pass protection in the preseason, I think they'll put up enough big games. Plus, Knox has clearly been the go-to guy for this passing attack in the preseason. As a WR3, I really like his value. Round 6 included an awful selection of Justin Forsett, but things went mostly according to plan otherwise.
7th round: This was my worst selection. 6/7 teams picking behind me had a QB, so I should have waited a round as I like Cutler, Kolb, and Ryan about equally. At least 2/3 would have been there, and it's very likely that all 3 still would have been there as the one guy who didn't have a QB chose Flacco. I went with Jay Cutler, and I feel this is a pick that is going to haunt me. I really should have gone with Dez Bryant, and he was taken in the 8th round prior to my next pick. I think Cutler is going to have some huge games, and I think he'll provide better results in the 2nd half once the offense gels, but their offensive line is starting to really concern me. Luckily they play Detroit in week 1, so that has the ability to be a good one.
8th round: Cutler simply isn't an every week starter in my eyes right now, so I handicapped that pick with Matt Ryan. Ryan is going to take a step forward this year, and while his upside is limited by a team who likes to run, he's going to have plenty of passing lanes because of it as well. Ryan and Cutler both have the same bye week, but it's not until week 8, and there's a ton that can happen during the first 7 weeks. At worst case, I take a spot-starter for week 8. It's only one week. 3 defenses went in this round. Very few defenses are every week starters, so I just cannot fathom taking even elite defenses this early in the draft.
9th round: I had 3 very good RBs, my 3 starting WRs, and 2 QBs. Backup WR and starting TE were on my shopping list. I learned from the Cutler debacle, looked at the 7 teams picking behind me, and only two teams didn't have a TE. I liked both Zach Miller and Chris Cooley, so I took a calculated risk by letting this position go, and I focused on the WRs. I selected Lee Evans as someone who, at worst case, will be a good bye week fill-in. At best case, he will approach WR2 value. That talent hasn't gone anywhere, and I love fallen talents like Evans that I can put on my bench. I also really liked Santonio Holmes despite his 4 game suspension, but with Roddy White having a week 4 bye, I couldn't take this risk by forcing me to rely on whomever my WR5 was. I think the emergence of C.J. Spiller will give the defenses something else to focus on, and Roscoe Parrish is finally being used in the passing game. I like Evans' potential. By the way, neither Miller nor Cooley were selected.
10th round: I looked at the teams behind me, and they all had TEs, so I again felt safe letting that position go one more round. I wanted another RB, and I had my eye on Donald Brown, but he was selected 2 spots before pick. I re-looked at the available players, and I went with Montario Hardesty. James Harrison is NOT impressing coaches with his fumbles, and if you remember prior to his late season explosion last year, he was often in Mangini's doghouse for whatever reason. Hardesty is battling a knee injury which has kept him out of the preseason, but thankfully for his fantasy stock, Harrison is not doing anything to pull away. Hardesty will split carries once he returns, and he'll be the goal line back. He has a lot of upside, and he's exactly the type of RB I like to take later in the draft.
11th round: Miller and Cooley were still on the board, but it was only a matter of time before the two teams behind me that didn't have a TE took one, and we were now approaching the time in the draft where teams start taking a backup TE. I selected Zach Miller whom I really like this year. If Miller can produce borderline TE1 value with freakin' Jamarcus Russell, the move to Jason Campbell gives him very nice upside. Plus, Campbell made Cooley a TE1 for years in Washington, so he clearly values throwing to the TE position. It's not an offense that's going to allow Miller to score a lot of TDs, but there's a good chance he leads the team in receiving yards. Louis Murphy should also provide enough of a threat to keep defenses doubling him all game, and hopefully McFadden and Bush can provide additional threats as well.
12th round: Toss-up round. I wanted another RB, another WR, another TE, and I still needed a K and D/ST. I had my eye on Leon Washington, but he was taken a couple picks before me. I selected Mike Williams from Tampa Bay. Williams is going to be their go-to WR all season, and only an injury will prevent him from leading the team in receiving. Josh Freeman might miss the first game or two, but that's hardly a concern as my WR5. Freeman and Williams have shown impressive chemistry already, and I really like his potential this season. A great value this late.
13th round: I had a number of RBs left rated similarly, so I waited. The Dallas defense really stood out at this pick as an appealing defense that was still on the board, so I went with them. I always look at a defense's week 1 matchup when taking one, and with Washington up first, I really liked it. McNabb might not be ready, and how good of a friend is Rex Grossman to fantasy defenses? This could be an awesome pick for week 1.
14th round: 5th RB time! This is lottery pick area, so you take a RB that has big upside should the starter go down. The best bet is to focus on RBs that would have a clear starting role with an injury. I gave a little thought to Rashard Jennings with the rumblings about MJD's knee, but instead I went with Bernard Scott. With LJ gone, Scott is a big, explosive backup to Cedric Benson who will immediately become a RB2 should Benson get hurt. Scott has the talent to be a starting RB in the NFL.
15th round: Backup TE time. I selected Tony Scheffler. Yes, Brandon Pettigrew was a 1st round pick last season, but he's coming back from a torn ACL, and he'll be brought along slowly. Pettigrew is an excellent blocker, and while he's a solid receiver, he does not possess the seam-stretching ability that Scheffler does. Expect a lot of 2 TE sets with Scheffler providing a mismatch for whomever is covering him in the slot. He's got a chance for lower level TE1 value for what should be a much improved offense.
16th round: Simple strategy: take the best kicker available. I went with Adam Vinatieri. I also strongly considered Shayne Graham, and I might make a switch prior to week 1. Vinatieri has regressed the past couple seasons, but he had surgery to correct some injury issues, and he's looked solid so far. The problem is a bit of a catch-22...the Colts are a high powered offense that plays in a dome, but they are also extremely efficient in the red zone, so they actually don't provide a lot of FG opportunities. At worst case, he's going to get a good number of extra points, so just 1 FG will give you a solid game.
Recap: I liked my draft, and I think I did very well in the later rounds. However, I will be doing 2 comparisons this season:
1) Jamaal Charles & Dwayne Bowe versus Steve Smith & Jahvid Best. I would have taken Best in the 4th round had I selected Smith in the 3rd. I'm obviously concerned about having 2 of my top 4 players on a shaky offense, but at least the AFC West's defenses are pretty weak, and Weis should improve the KC offense. I felt I was taking the best player available, so in theory it shouldn't matter come season's end.
2) Jay Cutler & Lee Evans versus Dez Bryant & Ben Roethlisberger. I'm also obviously concerned about Cutler, and Evans versus Bryant should be interesting. Had I taken Bryant instead of Cutler, I would have gone with Big Ben in round 10 as my backup QB. Bryant is a 2nd WR on a good offense while Evans is a 1st WR on a bad offense. I'm very curious to how Cutler will play when I use him over Ryan.
All in all, I'm happy with my team, and I think I have a deep bench. I'm just excited for the season to start at this point!
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Rams WR Donnie Avery Suffers Knee Injury
St. Louis Rams WR Donnie Avery suffered a serious knee injury this evening in his preseason game with the Patriots. Given the nature of the injury, I'm pretty sure he tore his ACL.
Fantasy Impact: Immediately remove Avery as a WR5 candidate, and re-focus a potential WR5 candidate to Laurent Robinson instead. Robinson has the talent to be a true #1 WR at the NFL level, but much like Avery, he's suffered a number of injuries in his short career. Like I mentioned in my draft guide, a rookie QB isn't the best news for WR fantasy value, but someone has to step up, and Robinson has the most talent on the team. He's a good end-game flier.
Fantasy Impact: Immediately remove Avery as a WR5 candidate, and re-focus a potential WR5 candidate to Laurent Robinson instead. Robinson has the talent to be a true #1 WR at the NFL level, but much like Avery, he's suffered a number of injuries in his short career. Like I mentioned in my draft guide, a rookie QB isn't the best news for WR fantasy value, but someone has to step up, and Robinson has the most talent on the team. He's a good end-game flier.
500th Post: Leinart Sucks More And Gets Demoted
I noticed that this is my 500th on post here. So, for the none of you who follow this, thanks for your support. I'd still be here if it weren't for you.
Down to business: Arizona QB Matt Leinart has been demoted. Derek Anderson will start for the Cardinals this weekend in the all important 3rd preseason game, and Leinart will come in off the bench. As long as Derek Anderson doesn't go all Jake Delhomme, which would be saying something since we're talking about Derek Anderson, he'll start in week 1. It's obvious that the Cardinals' coaching staff has seen enough of Leinart to know that he's not even the short term answer, and there's reason to believe he might be cut as well. It couldn't happen to a more dedicated player. Wait.
Fantasy Impact: Cross Leinart off your draft board, obviously. Derek Anderson hasn't shown any better accuracy this offseason, so there's little reason to draft him. If the Cardinals fall out of contention, there's a good chance one of Arizona's young QBs, Max Hall or John Skelton, would get the call at that point. Larry Fitzgerald becomes slightly more appealing because Anderson is far more aggressive than Leinart, but I still project a drop in his numbers across the board, and I'd much rather draft Calvin Johnson or Roddy White instead. Steve Breaston is worth ignoring because I don't think Anderson will be able to support more than one fantasy-relevant WR. Beanie Wells is mostly unaffected, although this might increase his scoring potential ever so slightly. Continue drafting him as a RB2 as he'll likely be the offensive focal point along with Fitz. On a semi-related note, I'm not buying this Tim Hightower crap. Hightower might "start", but Beanie is their featured RB. If this forces Wells into the 3rd round, grab him at a discount if you didn't like him in the 2nd.
Down to business: Arizona QB Matt Leinart has been demoted. Derek Anderson will start for the Cardinals this weekend in the all important 3rd preseason game, and Leinart will come in off the bench. As long as Derek Anderson doesn't go all Jake Delhomme, which would be saying something since we're talking about Derek Anderson, he'll start in week 1. It's obvious that the Cardinals' coaching staff has seen enough of Leinart to know that he's not even the short term answer, and there's reason to believe he might be cut as well. It couldn't happen to a more dedicated player. Wait.
Fantasy Impact: Cross Leinart off your draft board, obviously. Derek Anderson hasn't shown any better accuracy this offseason, so there's little reason to draft him. If the Cardinals fall out of contention, there's a good chance one of Arizona's young QBs, Max Hall or John Skelton, would get the call at that point. Larry Fitzgerald becomes slightly more appealing because Anderson is far more aggressive than Leinart, but I still project a drop in his numbers across the board, and I'd much rather draft Calvin Johnson or Roddy White instead. Steve Breaston is worth ignoring because I don't think Anderson will be able to support more than one fantasy-relevant WR. Beanie Wells is mostly unaffected, although this might increase his scoring potential ever so slightly. Continue drafting him as a RB2 as he'll likely be the offensive focal point along with Fitz. On a semi-related note, I'm not buying this Tim Hightower crap. Hightower might "start", but Beanie is their featured RB. If this forces Wells into the 3rd round, grab him at a discount if you didn't like him in the 2nd.
WR5 Draft Guide Update 2
I removed Golden Tate. After a very strong start to the offseason, he's fallen behind and will not start when the year begins. He's working on special teams now to increase his gameday value. He's someone to keep an eye on when the regular season begins, but he's not draftable.
I've become a stronger proponent of both Mike Williams from TB and Bernard Berrian. Williams has had a strong offseason from start to finish, and barring injury, he's a lock to lead all rookie WRs in yards and probably TDs. The Freeman injury hurts his value in the short term, but if that allows you to grab him at a further discount, that's perfect. Berrian obviously gets a bump due to Rice's hip surgery and Harvin's headaches, and he's probably being drafted as more of a WR4 now, which is fine as he'll start and be the primary deep threat for Favre.
I also highly recommend Jabar Gaffney. He's hardly an elite talent, but he's a good bet to lead the Broncos in receiving. Demaryius Thomas has re-injured his foot again, and he's not going to make a fantasy impact until late this year, if at all. Eric Decker isn't going to threaten his starting job this season, and who knows what you'll get with Eddie Royal.
I've become a stronger proponent of both Mike Williams from TB and Bernard Berrian. Williams has had a strong offseason from start to finish, and barring injury, he's a lock to lead all rookie WRs in yards and probably TDs. The Freeman injury hurts his value in the short term, but if that allows you to grab him at a further discount, that's perfect. Berrian obviously gets a bump due to Rice's hip surgery and Harvin's headaches, and he's probably being drafted as more of a WR4 now, which is fine as he'll start and be the primary deep threat for Favre.
I also highly recommend Jabar Gaffney. He's hardly an elite talent, but he's a good bet to lead the Broncos in receiving. Demaryius Thomas has re-injured his foot again, and he's not going to make a fantasy impact until late this year, if at all. Eric Decker isn't going to threaten his starting job this season, and who knows what you'll get with Eddie Royal.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Sidney Rice Undergoes Hip Surgery
Minnesota WR Sidney Rice underwent hip surgery, and he is expected to be sidelined for at least half of the season.
Fantasy Impact: Hopefully you've been listening to my advice to avoid Rice in drafts this season. Unfortunately, if you did not, you now have a 2nd/3rd round pick that isn't going to play for a while. It's probably too early to tell exactly how long his rehab will take, but the estimate right now is half a season. Brett Favre gets a slight downgrade as Rice was his go-to receiver, but I still see him as a solid QB2. Sidney Rice can be drafted as a WR5, but nothing more. He's going to miss at least half the season, he'll probably be rusty when he comes back, and it's not a lock that he'll play at all. Percy Harvin and Bernard Berrian both get upgrades. Harvin is a bit of a risk with his unpredictable migraine situation, but he's a rock-solid WR3 set to start and see a nice increase in targets. Berrian should take over as the primary deep threat, and he's now worth up to a WR4 pricetag with possibility for WR3 value while Rice is out.
Fantasy Impact: Hopefully you've been listening to my advice to avoid Rice in drafts this season. Unfortunately, if you did not, you now have a 2nd/3rd round pick that isn't going to play for a while. It's probably too early to tell exactly how long his rehab will take, but the estimate right now is half a season. Brett Favre gets a slight downgrade as Rice was his go-to receiver, but I still see him as a solid QB2. Sidney Rice can be drafted as a WR5, but nothing more. He's going to miss at least half the season, he'll probably be rusty when he comes back, and it's not a lock that he'll play at all. Percy Harvin and Bernard Berrian both get upgrades. Harvin is a bit of a risk with his unpredictable migraine situation, but he's a rock-solid WR3 set to start and see a nice increase in targets. Berrian should take over as the primary deep threat, and he's now worth up to a WR4 pricetag with possibility for WR3 value while Rice is out.
Monday, August 23, 2010
Matt Leinart Sucks
Yeah, that's about it. He's starting to lose the locker room, and there's no guaranty he's going to last this season as the starter. In fact, it's likely. He's not worth drafting as a QB2, and I'll update my draft guide accordingly.
2010 Preseason Backfield Report Update
I've made updates to the backfield report, so take a gander at teams you're keeping an eye on for the latest information. Good times!
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Brett Favre Returns
It's not official yet, but Brett Favre will be returning to the Minnesota Vikings for the 2010 season. It's hardly a surprise, but it gives some concrete information from which to draft Vikings' players. The Vikings will no doubt welcome him back with open arms as they're a Super Bowl contender with him.
Fantasy Impact: Brett Favre makes for a solid late QB1, but keep in mind that last season was a dream season, and that regression is to be expected. As long as he's drafted accordingly, he should be a solid contributor to your fantasy team. Adrian Peterson needs to be drafted in the top 2 of all leagues, but that was the case with or without Favre. Honestly, I like him better with Favre returning. Sidney Rice has started to cut off of his hip, so that's progress in his return from his mysterious hip injury. He will remain overvalued for as long as he's being drafted as a WR1. My expectations for Favre's regression will impact the entire passing game. Percy Harvin stands the most to benefit. Favre obviously solidifies the QB position, and Rice might start slow or possibly not be 100% this season. I like Harvin as an upside WR3. Bernard Berrian is nothing more than a late WR5 flier. Shiancoe is not a TE1 as he's solely reliant on TDs for his fantasy value.
Fantasy Impact: Brett Favre makes for a solid late QB1, but keep in mind that last season was a dream season, and that regression is to be expected. As long as he's drafted accordingly, he should be a solid contributor to your fantasy team. Adrian Peterson needs to be drafted in the top 2 of all leagues, but that was the case with or without Favre. Honestly, I like him better with Favre returning. Sidney Rice has started to cut off of his hip, so that's progress in his return from his mysterious hip injury. He will remain overvalued for as long as he's being drafted as a WR1. My expectations for Favre's regression will impact the entire passing game. Percy Harvin stands the most to benefit. Favre obviously solidifies the QB position, and Rice might start slow or possibly not be 100% this season. I like Harvin as an upside WR3. Bernard Berrian is nothing more than a late WR5 flier. Shiancoe is not a TE1 as he's solely reliant on TDs for his fantasy value.
Monday, August 16, 2010
Buffalo's RB Situation
I wanted to sum up the mess that is Buffalo's backfield currently. Fred Jackson has broken a bone in his hand, and he is out for the rest of the preseason. He is also in danger of missing a regular season game or two. He was heading into the season as the lead back in this mess, but he is now in danger of losing that role. Marshawn Lynch sprained his ankle, but he is expected back as soon as the last preseason game. C.J. Spiller has a huge opportunity to seize the starting job the next couple weeks. I had originally ranked him as overrated because of all the veteran competition, but he is in complete control of his destiny. He's not going to be a goal line back, so his upside is limited, but he's comparable to someone like Jamaal Charles last season. His play-making ability would fit well into a team that does not have a solid offensive line nor a passing game. I would draft Spiller the first of the three now as I think his talent will win out, and he's got the best upside as a RB3. I wouldn't take Jackson as anything more than a RB4. Lynch is mostly an afterthought. I'm curious to see how Spiller does the next couple weeks.
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