RB2 (13 - 24) Value Analysis

13) Laurence Maroney

ADP: 20.8 (2nd round, 9th pick)

Value: Over Valued

What's Changed: Released WR Donte Stallworth.

Overview: Maroney was a massive first round bust in 2007. With the release of Corey Dillon, and the additions of Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, and Wes Welker, those who drafted Maroney had dreams of tons of running room with a double digit TD total. Maroney posted 20 carries for a disappointing 72 yards in week 1, and then didn't see 20 carries again until week 15. NE's pass happy ways were at the expense of the running game, and Maroney also missed 3 weeks with a mysterious injury. You would assume 2008 will be better for Maroney as NE will likely run more this season. However, NE just signed LaMont Jordan today, and Jordan possesses the varied skill set that Belichick loves. I'm not sure what Sammy Morris' status is, but with Jordan and Kevin Faulk, it's blatantly obvious that Belichick does not trust Maroney as the team's true featured RB. While Maroney should have some big games, his workload and fantasy production will likely be inconsistent yet again. If you're pairing him with a true RB1, he's an interesting risk, but given the stud WRs being taken in his neighborhood ADP, I'd rather have the more consistent production from them.

14) Brandon Jacobs

ADP: 22.8 (2nd round, 11th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed: Trading TE Jeremy Shockey.

Overview: Brandon "Brenda" Jacobs was an interesting fantasy RB to own last season. When healthy, he was RB1 material, only posting one disasterous game against Philadelphia in week 14. However, he left the opener with a knee injury and missed the next 3 weeks. He came back strong, but then went down again in week 11 and missed 2 more weeks. Combined with those 2 early exits, he left a couple games with minor ailments as well, and then Reuben Droughns was illogically installed as the goal line RB, vulturning several TDs along the way. Jacobs eventually became a platoon partner with Ahmad Bradshaw during the playoffs. The Giants offense returns mostly intact from the 2007 season, although the loss of Jeremy Shockey downgrades the run blocking from the TE position. Heading into 2008, I'm expecting a 2:1 carry split or so with Ahmad Bradshaw, with Jacobs assuming goal line duties. Derrick Ward was also re-signed, but his role is unclear currently. Given Ward's performance last year, he's nice insurance should Jacobs get hurt again. The platoon with Bradshaw should allow Jacobs to stay fresher, score more TDs, and remain productive. Jacobs won't pile up the carries or catches to consistently chug out great yardage, but his TDs should return, and he should border on RB1 value.

15) Jamal Lewis

ADP: 24.9 (3rd round, 1st pick)

Value: Over Valued

What's Changed: Signed WR Donte Stallworth.

Overview: Jamal Lewis had a weird 2008 season. He started off the season in week 1 like the past couple seasons, looking sluggish. He then exploded in week 2 for 216 yards against Cincy, giving owners hope that he had re-found the form he lost somewhere in Baltimore. He then went back to being the uninspired RB that we had come to expect through week 10, but along the way he posted a ridiculous game against Seattle in week 9...20 carries for 37 yards...and 4 TDs. All of a sudden in week 11, he started torching defenses, posting 86+ total yards in his last 7 games, including 4 100 rushing yard performances and 5 total TDs. So, what Jamal Lewis are we going to see this year? He put those numbers up against either banged up or weak rushing defenses, so his schedule definitely played a big factor. On the other hand, it was the best offensive line he's run behind in years, supported by arguably the best passing game he's ever run with. Cleveland's offense looks solid on paper again, and Jamal Lewis is the unquestioned goal line back, so that counts for scores at least. Their schedule this season is much tougher on paper, and I don't believe there's any way he racks up yardage like he did down the stretch in 2007 again. Lewis should post a solid 2008 campaign, but I believe the odds are that he'll disappoint.

16) Maurice Jones-Drew

ADP: 27.0 (3rd round, 3rd pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed: Signed WR Jerry Porter.

Overview: Maurice Jones-Drew came with serious hype last year despite being a committee RB. There was no way MJD would replicate his terrific 2006 rookie season unless Fred Taylor went down, so his owners were praying for another Fred Taylor injury that would pave the way for MJD to be a top 5 fantasy stud. That injury never happened, and MJD owners were left with a very inconsistent fantasy property while Fred Taylor played inspired football. Jacksonville's line remains solid, and they slightly upgraded their passing attack by adding Jerry Porter as their primary target. MJD is being drafted a bit later this year as a result, and this seems to me like an appropriate place to take him. Taking him at his ADP means you've drafted your stud RB1, and you probably have a stud WR1 as well, so you can afford the inconsistency that MJD offers. You're a Fred Taylor injury away from having 2 stud RBs, but you're not banking on an injury to make or break your team.

17) Reggie Bush

ADP: 30.3 (3rd round, 6th pick)

Value: Under Valued

What's Changed: Reggie Bush is the new starting RB for the Saints.

Overview: Reggie Bush simply busted in 2007. Fantasy nation took note of his very strong finish in 2006, and he was often drafted as an RB1 in the late first round. The Saints offense struggled out of the gates, and then Deuce McAllister suffered a season-ending knee injury. At the time, Reggie Bush owners were grateful for the opportunity that Bush had to be the undisputed starting RB, but he wasn't ready. He didn't post a single 100 yard rushing game, and he only scored 4 times on the ground before a knee injury forced him to miss the final 4 games. Complicating matters was the performance of Aaron Stecker and then Pierre Thomas down the stretch as they both thrived in the primary RB role once Bush went down. 2008 is a new year, but it doesn't look like Deuce McAllister will make an impact on the running game this season. I know the odds are stacked against Bush right now, but I fully believe that we'll be seeing a different Reggie Bush in 2008, one who is inspired and ready to put his immense talent on display. Pierre Thomas seems likely to be a committee member in some fashion, but while he's a capable NFL RB, he does not have the talent that Reggie Bush has. I believe you'll start to see Bush slowly turn into another Brian Westbrook starting this season. Keep in mind that Tiki Barber and Brian Westbrook were not good running between the tackles when they entered the NFL, either.

18) Ronnie Brown

ADP: 33.5 (3rd round, 9th pick)

Value: Over Valued

What's Changed: Ronnie Brown's ACL surgery, new head coach Tony Sparano, the presence of RB Ricky Williams.

Overview: Ronnie Brown finally showed fantasy nation what he could do when put in an offensive system that suited his talents. Cam Cameron was the perfect offensive mind to bring out the best in Ronnie Brown, and then a torn ACL in week 7 ended it all. Cam Cameron is now gone, but with Bill Parcells overseeing the team now, you can bet the running game will still be featured. The 2 most concerning elements of Ronnie Brown's 2008 outlook are exactly how well he's recovered from his ACL surgery, and the presence of Ricky Williams. Now some may laugh at the fact that Ricky Williams, he of the 2 lost seasons and 31 years of age, might be fantasy relevant again. The fact is that he's still very talented, and the time off keeps him fresher than your usual 31 year old RB. I know fantasy nation would love nothing more than to see the 2007 version of Ronnie Brown come back, but with the recovery from his knee injury and the looming committee with Ricky Williams, I wouldn't want to rely on Brown as my weekly RB2 this season.

19) Earnest Graham

ADP: 33.9 (3rd round, 10th pick)

Value: Over Valued

What's Changed: Signed RB Warrick Dunn and WR Antonio Bryant.

Overview: Earnest Graham was a waiver wire wonder in 2007, coming out of nowhere to become a very solid fantasy RB from week 7 onwards. He ran hard between the tackles and tacked on very solid receiving numbers, plus he scored 10 TDs over the course of the season as well. Despite his solid season, the Bucs didn't re-sign him to a "you're our primary RB" type of contract, and Gruden hasn't named a starting RB yet, consistently referencing Warrick Dunn when talking about the RB position. The lack of the confidence from the coaching staff is certainly concerning, but considering Graham's competition is the aging Warrick Dunn and the completely uninspiring Michael Bennett, you have to think that Graham is the favorite. It's possible the coaching staff wants to keep him motivated. Still, with a lackluster offense surrounding him, there doesn't seem to be much upside here, and I can't see a situation where he scored 10 TDs again.

20) Michael Turner

ADP: 36.5 (3rd round, 12th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed: Michael Turner is the new starting RB for the Falcons.

Overview: Michael Turner was everyone's favorite handcuff in 2008 as non-LT owners had dreams of Superman meeting his kryptonite, giving Turner the starting job and a rise to RB1 status. With him set to depart from SD, fantasy nation kept a close eye on his landing spot, thinking he'd be a borderline first round RB on the right team. I thought I heard a collective groan once his contract was announced with the Falcons, and his late 3rd - early4th round ADP is indicative of that. Despite all of this, we're looking at a young RB who's going to be the workhorse for his new team. Jerious Norwood is still a talented backup, but he's not the 20-25 carry RB that the Falcons want in their offense. The Falcons offense as a whole is a pretty big mess around Turner, but Turner will get plenty of touches and should post solid fantasy numbers given that fact. I liken his situation to McGahee's in Buffalo, but without the bitching about a lack of women and the preponderance of Applebee's-like restaurants. Turner projects to have a poor surrounding offense and he comes with the risk of most 1st time primary RBs wearing down in their first season, but with close to a 4th round ADP, he's worth taking here.

21) Edgerrin James

ADP: 40.5 (4th round, 4th pick)

Value: Over Valued

What's Changed: Released WR Bryant Johnson, drafted RB Tim Hightower.

Overview: Edge of 2007 was just like Edge of 2006, a RB2 who thrived on a fairly high workload to put together decent fantasy performances. No one will argue that Edge's best days are behind him, and I don't see him getting another 300 carries this year. While the Cardinals illogically continue to ignore the RB position, Edge is wearing down and offers no upside at this stage in his career. The offense will remain pass-oriented, and I bet rookie Tim Hightower gets into the mix. I just don't have much to say here than don't waste your 4th round pick on him.

22) Willie Parker

ADP: 45.3 (4th round, 9th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed: Released OG Alan Faneca, drafted RB Rashard Mendenhall.

Overview: Willie Parker impressed by leading the NFL in rushing yards last year prior to breaking his leg, but he severely disappointed fantasy owners by only scoring 2 TDs. His goal line fumbles, mostly in 2006, were completely to blame, and Pittsburgh decided to air it out near the goal line instead. Parker is simply not a power back despite his very impressive 2006 and 2007 rushing totals, and Pittsburgh will attempt to rectify their lack of a power rusher with the drafting of Rashard Mendenhall. Now I don't expect Mendenhall to come in and take over the primary RB responsibilities, but he most certainly becomes the favorite for goal line carries and 3rd down work. Willie Parker has become Fred Taylor, and Mendenhall will be MJD, if you're looking for an analogy of the RB situation. Complicating matters is the loss of Pro Bowl guard Alan Faneca to an already shaky offensive line. Parker should get enough touches to be a decent RB2, but his yardage total will decrease from the past two years, and his TD total will remain low.

23) Julius Jones

ADP: 49.8 (5th round, 2nd pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed: Julius Jones is the new starting RB for the Seahawks.

Overview: Julius Jones and Bill Parcells just never were meant to be. Despite a great rookie season that saw him explode after a broken shoulder blade, Jones has looked very blah the last two years as Parcells has repeatedly called him out and Marion Barber emerged as the better talent. Jones now moves to Seattle where he's the favorite to start. Maurice Morris has played in numerous games over the past 2 seaons with Shaun Alexander missing extended time in both, but he's never really proven to be anything more than a solid backup RB. TJ Duckett was also signed, but his role will be short yardage, if he even sees the field. Seattle is calling it an open competition between Jones and Morris, but I bet that Jones proves to be the better RB and the primary ball carrier. While Seattle's offensive line isn't dominant anymore, they are still solid. The passing game has lost many of their top talents, but the system is good and they will still move the ball. As a 5th round pick, I think Julius Jones is a very interesting RB3, but picking him as a RB2 would be playing with fire.

24) Darren McFadden

ADP: 51.6 (5th round, 3rd pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed: Darren McFadden is in a RBBC, signed WR Javon Walker.

Overview: Darren McFadden is viewed by some as this year's Adrian Peterson, but I'm not buying it. He's not the pure runner that Peterson is, and I believe unlike most NFL RBs, he's going to need a period of adjustment to learn how to run at the NFL level. He'll be joining Justin Fargas in Oakland's backfield, and Fargas showed last year that he's a very good fit for the one-cut zone blocking scheme that Oakland has switched to. This scheme demands that you make a quick decision and go with it, and I don't think that suits McFadden's strengths right now. McFadden will have some big runs, and he's an accomplished receiver who can make things happen in space, so he'll be involved in the passing game as well. I don't see the consistency here necessary to rely on him on a weekly basis, but there's no doubt his upside is tremendous.

RB1 (Top 12) Value Analysis

1) LaDainian Tomlinson

ADP: 1.1 (1st round, 1st pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed: Phillip Rivers' ACL surgery, Antonio Gates' foot surgery, released RB Michael Turner.

Overview: What to say about LT? He plays in a great system with a very good offensive line and a good passing attack. His durability is amazing, although he did suffer his first real injury in the playoffs last season when he strained his knee and didn't last more than a carry or two in the 2nd round. That shouldn't affect him in 2008, nor is it a worrisome recurring injury. His owners don't have the luxury of drafting a clear-cut backup this year with Michael Turner leaving for Atlanta, and a likely committee situation between Darren Sproles and Jacob Hester should LT go down. Complicating things is Rivers' return from ACL surgery, and we've learned with Palmer in 2006 and McNabb in 2007 that the first half is often a rough stretch of games marked by inconsistent play. If anything, that should mean plenty of LT to start the season while Rivers settles back in. LT has more questions around him this season than the past couple years, and part of me is scared that this is the year that he'll start to fade, but it's hard to ignore his incredible track record.

2) Adrian Peterson

ADP: 2.2 (1st round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed: Adrian Peterson is the new starting RB for the Vikings, signed WR Bernard Berrian.

Overview: A sprained MCL de-railed ADP's incredible rookie season, but nobody will forget the way he carved up CHI and SD's defenses last season. ADP is a ridiculous blend of talent in every area, but he has managed to get injured this past 3 seasons. His sophomore season at Oklahoma was marred by high ankle sprain, his junior season at Oklahoma was cut short by 2 collarbone breaks, and his rookie season in Minnesota was interrupted by a sprained MCL. Only the collarbone injury was one to worry about moving forward, and he seems to have put that behind him with his performance last year without further re-injury. He has a stud offensive line in front of him, but be aware of a potential suspension to Bryant McKinnie that might cost the big LT a couple games. He has a great backup in Chester Taylor who is a must-have for all ADP owners, and he'll cost you a 7th round pick on average, but it's well worth the investment. Although none of his injuries will linger, one must be aware that he's been hurt the past three seasons and at least consider him somewhat of an injury risk. Chester will take some carries, but ADP will see the ball plenty, and he's likely to put up a very impressive season. Just beware that's he's a huge risk/reward with this high of a price tag.

3) Brian Westbrook
ADP: 3.5 (1st round, 3rd pick)
Value: Over Valued

What's Changed: Donovan McNabb is fully recovered from his torn ACL.

Overview: Brian Westbrook had his best season yet last year, showing remarkable consistency with a yardage total no less than 90 yards in any week. He broke off big plays, was extremely active in the passing game, and simply was the best fantasy RB on a week to week basis as far as consistency is concerned. Philadelphia vows to lessen his workload this year, and with Donovan McNabb 100%, I'd agree that this is likely the case. Westbrook continues to have knee problems as the season wears on each year, and it caused him to miss a game last season. It's very hard to predict injuries, but I'm going to guess that it becomes more of a problem for him this season. He logged 368 touches last year, the most of his career, and this is the highest ADP of his career. I don't think he'll live up to his draft position this season.

4) Steven Jackson
ADP: 4.4 (1st round, 4th pick)
Value: Over Valued

What's Changed: Released WR Isaac Bruce.

Overview: Steven Jackson was the latest victim to the 370 f/carry (carries + 1/2 catches) RB model. This model has shown that 50% of RBs with 370+ f/carry in a season get hurt the following season, and 72% lose at least 20% of their previous season's production. Jackson achieved both. Also, 72% of RBs put up 200 or less fantasy points each season after the 370 f/carry season. Given Jackson's relatively young age, he has a decent chance to overcome this, but the facts definitely have to be weighed into the decision. His ADP shows that owners expect him to bounce back, so there's little value to be had here. Jackson's passing game prowess should keep his total yardage high, but his TD production should be a limited as his surrounding offense is the worst it's been in his career. All things considered, his value will rely on his health as he has the talent and enough of an offense to put together a good season.

5) Joseph Addai

ADP: 4.7 (1st round, 4th pick)
Value: Over Valued

What's Changed: Offseason knee surgery for QB Peyton Manning and WR Marvin Harrison.

Overview: Joseph Addai turned in a successful first season as the Colts primary RB, but he noticeably slowed down with a variety of minor injuries in the 2nd half. He hadn't been the primary ball carrier for a team since high school, and it was cleraly evident in the 2nd half. His surrounding offense returns, and it's looking more and more likely that Marvin Harrison will return and be productive. The problem is that Manning's offseason knee surgery will likely lead to a slow start, and Addai is NOT the type of RB who can carry a team on his own. I believe his 2nd half fade is something that should be strongly considered when deciding whether or not to select him. Addai runs well between the tackles, is great at catching passes, and most importantly, is a good goal line runner. I expect another good season from Addai this year, but I have a feeling that his 2007 fade was for real, and that he won't be as productive as he was in the first half of the 2007 season.

6) Marion Barber
ADP: 8.3 (1st round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed: Marion Barber is the new starting RB for the Cowboys, released WR Terry Glenn.

Overview: Fantasy nation expects a lot from Marion Barber, taking him over established primary RBs such as Frank Gore, Larry Johnson, and Clinton Portis. I believe he'll come through. He has been a lesser committee member the past two seasons, but has had his touches increase each season. There's no question that he knows how to punish defenses, be active in the passing game, and most importantly, find the end zone. There's no running back in a better situation than Barber. His offensive line is excellent at run blocking, and the surrounding passing game returns all key members from a hugely productive 2007. Rookie Felix Jones will get carries and help spell Barber as a lesser committee member this year, so Marion won't be seeing 300+ carries, but he'll make up for it with receiving yards his TDs. I believe he's a top 5 RB.

7) Frank Gore
ADP: 8.9 (1st round, 9th pick)
Value: Under Valued

What's Changed: New offensive coordinator Mike Martz, signed WRs Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson.

Overview: Frank Gore had a pretty damn impressive 2007 season, even if he didn't live up to his lofty draft position. Despite the disgusting offense around him, Gore ran hard and posted some nice yardage with a respectable TD total. He also played through an annoying ankle sprain for part of the year. Enter Mike Martz, who while previously known for his passing attack at the expense of the running game, will undoubtedly improve the offense. Martz has openly stated that he'll anchor the offense around Gore, which makes sense as he's easily the best offensive player on the team. The improved passing game will open up more lanes for Frank Gore, lead to more TD chances, and since he's such an accomplished receiver, he'll remain plenty productive in games that are more pass-oriented. His carries might be a bit inconsistent and I doubt Martz will completely commit to the running game, but Gore's yardage totals will remain great. Gore is a good value being taken behind RBs I wouldn't select over him.

8) Larry Johnson
ADP: 10.6 (1st round, 10th pick)
Value: Over Valued

What's Changed: New starting QB Brodie Croyle, drafted OT/OG Branden Alberts.

Overview: Larry Johnson, like Steven Jackson, fell victim to the 370 f/carry RB study. Unlike Steven Jackson, however, LJ logged 416 carries in 2006...and that's not including the receptions! Such a workload was never seen in the NFL before, and LJ's holdout didn't help. He started horribly slow, put together a couple decent games against some very weak rushing defenses, and then injured his foot and missed the rest of the season. Exactly as those of us familiar with the RB study expected. Things don't get any easier for LJ as his offensive line continues to look below average on paper, although they did add some talent in the draft in Branden Albert, the massive lineman from Virginia. One talented rookie lineman certainly won't fix the blocking problems, however. Dwayne Bowe finally adds a stud talent to the WR group, and Tony Gonzalez is still a great TE, but the passing game is terrible outside of those two. Brodie Croyle scares no one. With a below average offense, the ridiculous workload between the 2nd half of 2005 / all of 2006, and the RB1 price tag, I will not think twice before passing over LJ once again.

9) Clinton Portis
ADP: 11.2 (1st round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued

What's Changed: New head coach Jim Zorn, drafted WRs Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas.

Overview: Clinton Portis seemed to have a lingering knee issue during most of the 2007 offseason on into the preseason, and the Ladell Betts watch was on after Betts had a very impressive 2006 season with Portis hurt. When the regular season started, Clinton Portis was just fine by posting yet another solid season, and Ladell Betts became an after-thought. His rushing yardage was wildly inconsistent (9 games under 70 yards), but the 11 TDs and 389 receiving yards helped him put together a good RB1 season. Jim Zorn will revamp the offense into a WCO (west coast) like he helped run in Seattle, and if Shaun Alexander is any indication, that's good news for Clinton Portis. With a great line, a solid young QB, and a good TE along with some decent WRs comprising his surrounding offense, Portis looks set up for his best season in Washington yet. The fact his speed seemingly returned with a healthy offseason (ran a sub 4.4 40 yard dash) looks good for Portis' ability to break some big runs again this season. Portis is being undervalued, and I like him better than a number of RBs being select ahead of him.

10) Marshawn Lynch
ADP: 14.0 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Under Valued

What's Changed: New starting QB Trent Edwards, drafted WR James Hardy.

Overview: Marshawn Lynch exploded onto the fantasy football scene last year, but in a rather below-the-radar fashion. Lynch never had a yardage day worse than 79 yards, which is very consistent for a rookie, and he posted a RB1 season. Lynch missed 3 games with a high ankle sprain, showing once again that rookie runners/1st time primary RBs have a very hard time finishing a full 16 game season in their first year. He provided excellent value to all who drafted him last season. The Bills offensive line has slowly become a solid unit anchored by young stud Jason Peters, the addition of James Hardy should open up the offense a bit, and Trent Edwards will offer less big plays than JP Losman, but he should manage the game much better and make far less mistakes. I believe Lynch is the victim of "prove it" since he's not a special talent like Adrian Peterson, and that's why people are hesitant to take him over some of the bigger names being selected above him. Don't make the same mistake...Lynch is for real.

11) Ryan Grant
ADP: 14.1 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Over Valued

What's Changed: New starting QB Aaron Rodgers.

Overview: I think most people know the Ryan Grant story by now. Buried on the Giants depth chart to start the 2007 offseason, he eventually made his way onto the Packers, and after Brandon Jackson struggled and DeShawn Wynn got hurt, Grant debuted in week 8 and never looked back. He either posted at least 90 total yards or at least 1 TD in every game from weeks 8 to 17, busting big run after big run and tallying 5 100 yard games. He even tossed in a 200 yard performance in the playoffs against Seattle. He was a stud RB1 from week 8 onwards. His offensive line returns, but with the change to Aaron Rodgers at QB, I expect him to see more 8 man fronts to start the season. It seems like a natural assumption given the loss of Brett Favre to retirement. Grant is a hard player to analyze as he wasn't a standout in college, and he doesn't have much of a track record to back this explosion up. He's a good fit for the Packers zone blocking scheme, but with some of the stud WRs being drafted around him (Wayne, Owens, Braylon Edwards), I'd opt to take a surer thing. The fact he's holding out and allowing Brandon Jackson to impress the coaching staff is another negative. All things considered, I believe Grant offers up way too much downside for this high of a selection.

12) Willis McGahee
ADP: 15.8 (2nd round, 4th pick)
Value: Over Valued

What's Changed: New offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, QB competition, OT Jonathan Ogden retired, drafted RB Ray Rice.

Overview: Willis McGahee rewarded his 2007 drafters with a low RB1 season and pretty solid consistency. His switch to Baltimore re-motivated him, and he responded with at least 103 total yards in his first 5 games, but no rushing TDs. He then went on a 7 game rushing TD scoring streak, scoring exactly once in each game. He then posted his two worst games in weeks 14 and 16 before sitting out in week 17. McGahee just doesn't have the same explosion that he had prior to the devastating knee injury he suffered at Miami, and it's clear that it's not coming back. He did bust a few more big runs last year, but he's a workhorse back at this point in his career whose fantasy value depends on a high volume of carries. The Ravens offense was nothing to write home about last year, but with a first year starter (Troy Smith, Joe Flacco) likely to lead the team, there's a decent chance it might be worse. The good news is that new offensive coordinator Cam Cameron knows how to maximize the production from his RBs. Ray Rice was drafted, and while he's a very underrated talent, he's not a threat to McGahee's job. McGahee is being drafted exactly around where he should end up. He has some additional upside with the new coaching staff, and his workload should prevent downside.

Update: McGahee has undergone arthroscopic knee surgery and will likely miss at least week 1. Given this is the same knee he destroyed in college, I am no longer recommending McGahee in the 2nd round. His downside is too great at this point.

QB Value Analysis

This is the first installment of several articles I will write about value analysis. I will start with the QB position, and work through the RB, WR, and TE positions as well. The point of these articles is examining the current ADP (average draft position) of each player being drafted as a starter in a 12 team league using the 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE starting requirements. Then, we can determine whether or not a player is being drafted at the right position given the information we have now.

I personally don't believe in making a "top whatever" list at each position as I don't believe that's the most ideal way of how to build your team through a draft. I believe you should react to how players are currently being drafted this year as those are the facts of player values this year. Now this is hardly a set guideline as each draft will produce its own trends, but setting yourself up for where players should be valued can go a long way to prepare yourself for your draft.

1) Tom Brady
ADP: 6.2 (1st round, 6th pick)
Value: Over Valued

What's Changed In 2008: Released WR Donte Stallworth.

Overview: Tom Brady was a fantasy monster in 2007, finishing as the top overall fantasy points producer for any position in pretty much every scoring system. The additions of Randy Moss and Wes Welker were perfect fits as Brady was able to both unleash the deep ball and throw over the middle to move the chains. However, let's think back to 2004 when Peyton Manning broke the NFL record with 49 TD passes. He was then drafted in the middle of the 1st round, and he never lived up to that lofty draft position despite having yet another fine season. The NFL has a crazy way of adjusting to all trends, so expect defenses to blitz Brady and drop back to prevent the passing onslaught he put on last season. Brady is set up for another fine season as I don't they'll lose anything moving from Stallworth to 3rd year man Chad Jackson, but he's not going to be breaking records again, and most importantly, he's not going to be this much better than QBs going several rounds later.

2) Peyton Manning
ADP: 18.2 (2nd round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately to Over Valued

What's Changed In 2008: Offseason knee surgery for QB Peyton Manning and WR Marvin Harrison.

Overview: Peyton Manning was in fine form as usual in 2007, despite losing his longtime primary target Marvin Harrison to a knee injury for most of the season. Manning underwent offseason knee surgery for a bursa sac, but the surgery isn't expected to cost him any regular season time. Given the offense is the same as it's always been, he shouldn't have more than a game of rust in him once the games start to count. Marvin Harrison's knee is certainly cause for concern, but given the expected maturation of Anthony Gonzalez and the performance of Manning last season without Harrison, it shouldn't affect Manning's value. Simply put, you're paying for consistency and not upside, so this boils down to the risk you're willing to take with your QB position.

3) Tony Romo
ADP: 20.9 (2nd round, 9th pick)
Value: Over Valued

What's Changed In 2008: New starting RB Marion Barber, released WR Terry Glenn.

Overview: Tony Romo proved all his doubters wrong with a big 2007 season. Terrell Owens was Terrell Owens, and Jason Witten emerged as a top TE and the secondary target. The concerning thing to note here is how badly Romo fell apart when Terrell Owens got hurt for the last couple games. Romo turned in a brutal outing in week 15 last season, and then turned in a marginal performance in week 16. Given the horrible lack of depth behind Owens at the WR spot, if Owens were to go down, Romo would border on not useable. Given the incredible shape Owens keeps himself in, it's not nearly as concerning as it usually would be for most 34 year old WRs. However, with Romo's value tied closer to one player than any of the other QBs being taken around him, I'd rather use my 2nd round pick on someone else. Also, I don't see Romo being 2ish rounds better than the QBs behind him.

4) Drew Brees
ADP: 32.0 (3rd round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2008: New starting RB Reggie Bush, traded for TE Jeremy Shockey.

Overview: Drew Brees struggled out of the gate in 2007 as teams adjusted to his new downfield prowess, and also thanks to the season-ending knee injury that Deuce McAllister suffered. Without the power rushing game, the passing attack lacked a complimentary partner. However, the Saints and Brees eventually adjusted and got back on track with a nice close to the 2007 season. Deuce McAllister technically returns, but the health of both his knees is very much in question. Reggie Bush will be the primary RB now, and he adds a Brian Westbrook-like presence to the backfield in the passing game. Jeremy Shockey has recently been added to the passing attack, which should open up the downfield attack once again in 2008. Shockey is a huge upgrade to often injured Eric Johnson, and he's the player the Saints needed to deflect defensive attention away from Marques Colston and the other outside WRs. Shockey's addition should ensure that Brees provides solid value to those who draft him in 2008.

5) Carson Palmer
ADP: 42.0 (4th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2008: The uncertain RB situation, released WR Chris Henry, signed TE Ben Utecht.

Overview: Carson Palmer hasn't recaptured the same magic he had prior to his torn ACL in the playoffs of the 2005 season. In 2007, Rudi Johnson's lingering injuries deprived the Bengals of their power rushing game, which like with the Saints above, destroyed the downfield passing game's compliment. Complicating things were the 8 game suspension of Chris Henry and the constant wrong routes ran by Palmer's WRs. The RB situation still looks to be tenuous as the odds are stacked against Rudi Johnson returning to form, and Chris Perry always seems to be hurt despite currently being healthy. The wild card here is Kenny Watson, who proved he was up to the task when he received several starts last season. Cincinnati would likely be at their best with Watson who has proven durable and a force in the passing game. The best thing about Cincinnati's passing game in 2008 is both Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh are playing for new contracts, so they will be highly motivated to bring their A game for all of 2008. Also worth noting is that the Bengals added TE Ben Utecht, formerly of the Colts, and he's immediately the best receiving TE that Palmer has played with. I believe Palmer will return to elite form in 2008.

Update: With CJ's pending injury, the release of Chris Henry, and the uncertain running game, I no longer view Palmer as a possible elite QB this season. I do, however, think he'll be a solid starter and worth taking around where he's going.

6) Ben Roethlisberger
ADP: 48.8 (5th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued

What's Changed In 2008: Drafted RB Rashard Mendenhall and WR Limas Sweed.

Overview: Big Ben provided the best value of all QBs in 2008 with a big season mostly anchored by all his passing TDs. He was incredibly consistent throwing TDs, and even provided some rushing stats as well. The Steelers didn't really throw the ball that much more than usual, but since they lacked the big goal line RB to punch the ball home in the red zone, they spent most of their time in the red zone throwing the ball, leading to 32 TD passes for Big Ben. With the addition of Rashard Mendenhall, that figures to change. He will provide the big goal line RB the Steelers were missing last season, and as a result, I expect Big Ben's TD passes to drop. Considering the Steelers have no reason to start airing the ball out, especially with 2 capable RBs, those lost TD passes should depress his value such that he'll have a hard time living up to his draft status.

7) Derek Anderson
ADP: 54.4 (5th round, 6th pick)
Value: Over Valued

What's Changed In 2008: Signed WR Donte Stallworth.

Overview: Derek Anderson exploded out of nowhere in 2007 to become a starting fantasy QB. His big arm and aggressive style perfectly suited the downfield strengths of Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow. However, his struggles and lesser production down the stretch in 2007 is well worth noting. Cleveland's offensive line is young, good, and should be even better in 2008. They also added Donte Stallworth, but who knows if his fragile legs will stay healthy long enough for him to make an impact. The biggest thing working against Derek Anderson is his job security. If the Anderson or the Browns get off a slow start, you know the calls for Brady Quinn will ring loud, despite the fact that Anderson signed a fairly big deal this offseason to be the starter. The talent is there both for him and around him to succeed at the NFL level, but it's extermely hard to recommend a QB who doesn't have 100% job security as a fantasy starter. He's easily the biggest risk/reward among the top 12 QBs.

8) Matt Hasselbeck
ADP: 60.2 (5th round, 12th pick)
Value: Over Valued

What's Changed In 2008: Signed RB Julius Jones, released RB Shaun Alexander and WR D.J. Hackett, WR Deion Branch is hurt.

Overview: Matt Hasselbeck come on huge down the stretch in 2007 as Shaun Alexander was either hurt or ineffective, so the Seattle offense had to adjust and air the ball out. Deion Branch tore his ACL, and he likely will begin the season on PUP in 2008, and there's a chance he won't play at all this year. DJ Hackett was a bit unreliable health-wise, but he was very productive when on the field. He too is gone. Hasselbeck simply does not have enough weapons around him anymore to be a starting fantasy QB. The additions of Julius Jones, and to a much lesser degree TJ Duckett, will help beef up the running game to balance out the offense. Nate Burleson, Bobby Engram, and a bunch of no name WRs will be Hasselbeck's primary targets. While I believe in the Seattle offensive system and Hasselbeck, the talent just isn't there for Hasselbeck to put up big numbers.

9) Donovan McNabb
ADP: 65.4 (6th round, 5th pick)
Value: Under Valued

What's Changed In 2008: McNabb is fully recovered from his torn ACL.

Overview: Donovan McNabb sorely disappointed all who drafted him in 2007 as he started off very slowly, with the exception of one huge game against Detroit in week 3. He quietly returned to form in the 2nd half, posting a better completion percentage and more rushing yards. The Eagles tried hard to trade for a primary WR in the offseason, but they were unable to land either Roy Williams or Larry Fitzgerald. Despite that, I expect McNabb to return to form in 2008. He'll have a full offseason to focus on working with his passing targets instead of worrying about rehabbing his knee, and he'll also have his full mobility throughout the season. Without an elite WR or the mobility from his earlier days, McNabb doesn't have the talent in place to be an elite fantasy QB anymore, but he should return to being a quality starter. Given his injury risk, it's recommended to draft a backup early rather than late.

10) Eli Manning
ADP: 83.6 (7th round, 11th pick)
Value: Over Valued

What's Changed In 2008: Traded TE Jeremy Shockey.

Overview: Eli Manning led the Giants on possibly the most improbable Super Bowl run in NFL history. Despite being the same old Eli Manning during the regular season, he morphed into a completely different QB in the playoffs, showing consistency, accuracy, and good decision making in all 4 games he played, mostly against very good defenses. Even if he carries that over to the regular season, the loss of Shockey really limits his upside, as does the reliance on the running game to power the offense. Plaxico Burress is a tough WR to count on over the course of a season, and he's the only proven WR in the bunch. Amani Toomer will continue to slow down, although 2nd year WR Steve Smith remains a very intriguing target likely to mature this season. Kevin Boss is likely to replace Shockey, and while he's a solid pass catcher, he's not the talent that Shockey is. I think the 8th-12th spot is the upside for Manning's final ranking in 2008, so I don't see the upside here to make Eli a solid value pick.

11) Jay Cutler
ADP: 86.0 (8th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Under Valued

What's Changed In 2008: New starting RB Selvin Young, signed WRs Darrell Jackson and Keary Colbert, and WR Brandon Marshall's 2 game suspension.

Overview: Jay Cutler made some strides in 2007, showing off his talent amidst the growing pains that a 2nd year QB often endures. He was aided by Brandon Marshall turning into one of the best WRs in the NFL. 2008 was set up for Cutler to break through among the 2nd tier of fantasy QBs as he has the big arm, the talent around him, the system, and the running ability to put up consistent QB1 games with a few gems sprinkled in. Primary target Brandon Marshall will miss 2 games due to a suspension. Without Marshall, they are left with the questionable health of Darrell Jackson and Tony Scheffler along with the once promising, but now inconsistent Keary Colbert. Simply put, when Marshall plays, there are enough potential secondary receiving targets to make Cutler a great fantasy QB. Without Marshall, there isn't a sure thing on the roster, although Cutler should prove to be a borderline/matchup starter regardless. Brandon Marshall only faces a 2 game suspension, so those drafting Cutler will need to draft a reliable QB2 that they could start for not only for the 2 games that Marshall misses, but also to cover for any additional missed time Marshall might rack up.

12) Marc Bulger
ADP: 86.4 (8th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2008: Released WR Isaac Bruce.

Overview: Everything that could have gone wrong for Bulger in 2007 did. The offensive line was ravaged by injuries, Steven Jackson missed a good chunk of time, Torry Holt lost some of his ability to get separation, and Bulger himself got pummeled enough to miss time with injuries. His offense mostly returns healthy in 2008, although longtime secondary WR Isaac Bruce has left for SF. The offense will regroup under new coordinator Al Saunders and focus on the running game with Steven Jackson this time around. Drew Bennett is a blah secondary target, and the WR depth behind Holt and Bennett is terrible. Randy McMichael stands to benefit the most as Saunders loves using his TEs (Gonzalez in KC, Cooley in WAS), but he's not enough of a difference maker to overcome the problems at WR. Bulger is a good QB, but he no longer has the talent around him to be a difference maker. He's a solid selection where he's going in drafts and likely to finish right around where he's drafted, but I don't see the upside.

With the top 12 starters profiled, I'll list some sleepers here now:

15) Aaron Rodgers
ADP: 115.3 (10th round, 7th pick)
Value: Under Valued

What's Changed In 2008: What hasn't? He's the new starting QB!

Overview: Now there's still a slight chance that Brett Favre could return to the Packers, but I'm going to dismiss that as I don't believe it'll happen, regardless of the recent 3 week drama surrounding the situation. Aaron Rodgers is set up for success in his first season. He has a strong offensive line, a good RB in Ryan Grant, a great WR group in Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones, and youngster Jordy Nelson, and a solid TE in Donald Lee. Plus, to top it off, he has a coach who loves to pass. Rodgers has endured some freak injuries in the times he's started, but he's talented, knows the offense, and is not your typical first year starter. I'm expecting good things from Rodgers this season, and there's plenty of reason to believe that if he stays healthy, he'll finish in the top 12 QBs this season. Couple him with another reliable QB.

16) Matt Schaub
ADP: 117.9 (10th round, 9th pick)
Value: Under Valued

What's Changed In 2008: Nothing.

Overview: Matt Schaub looked like the starting QB that Houston expected him to be in 2008 prior to getting banged up with injuries and eventually missing the rest of the season. Much like Aaron Rodgers, he presents a health risk, but Schaub is a great sleeper candidate to break through into the tier of fantasy starter. Andre Johnson is a stud WR, Kevin Walter emerged as a solid secondary option, 2nd year WR Jacoby Jones is very talented and poised to make a 2nd year jump, and TE Owen Daniels is a great target over the middle. The offensive line is somewhat of a question mark with a rookie LT slated to start, but Houston has the talent and the offensive scheme to be able to pass the ball effectively and score TDs. Expect Schaub to be the primary beneficiary of this team finally putting together a solid offense. Also like Rodgers, couple him with another reliable QB.

17) Jake Delhomme
ADP: 131.8 (11th round, 12th pick)
Value: Under Valued

What's Changed In 2008: Drafted RB Jonathan Stewart, signed WRs D.J. Hackett and Muhsin Muhammad.

Overview: Jake Delhomme suffered a lost 2007 thanks to the need of Tommy John surgery to repair ligament damage in his elbow. He presumably returns healthy in 2008, and he might have the most talent around him since the Panthers Super Bowl run. Steve Smith is still a stud, DJ Hackett should prove to be a talented secondary option, Muhsin Muhammad returns as reliable veteran, and the offensive line has been beefed up. The Panthers will remain a run first team, especially with the addition of power RB Jonathan Stewart, but both Stewart and DeAngelo Williams are accomplished in the passing game and will provide capable receivers out of the backfield. Delhomme won't be a fantasy stud due to the run-first offensive philosophy, but I believe he'll re-emerge as a starting option with the talent around him.

18) Vince Young
ADP: 136.6 (12th round, 4th pick)
Value: Under Valued

What's Changed In 2008: He's not on the cover of Madden. ;) Drafted RB Chris Johnson, signed WR Justin McCareins and TE Alge Crumpler.

Overview: Vince Young, after a wonderful end to the 2006 season, endured a rough learning curve in 2007 as teams adjusted to his running style of play. He also battled leg injuries that sapped him of his explosiveness. Finally, offensive coordinator Norm Chow, who is now gone, just wasn't fit to run an NFL offense. I believe in Vince Young's talent, and you should too. This guy has been a winner at every level of football he's ever played at, and he's the one QB that can overcome substandard talent at the receiver positions to be a fantasy force, much like Michael Vick did. He won't post the rushing totals that Vick provided, but he has the talent to come relatively close, and he's more inclined to improve in the passing game as I feel he has the desire to do it. Justin McCareins and Justin Gage hardly scare defenses, but they are tall vertical threats who fit new offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger's style. Alge Crumpler, as long as his knee holds up, will provide a huge upgrade to the TE position that Vince Young loves to utilize. Lastly, the Titans drafted Chris Johnson, who is very similar to Reggie Bush in terms of passing game prowess and elite speed. Young's rushing totals will help pad him against clunker performances in the passing game, and they'll enhance the games where he shines throwing the ball. Vince Young should return to fantasy starter material this year, and he won't come this cheap for quite some time.

Deep Sleepers:

24) Tarvaris Jackson
ADP: 201.9 (16th round, 10th pick)
Value: Under Valued

What's Changed In 2008: Signed WR Bernard Berrian.

Overview: Tarvaris Jackson is only the kind of QB that you go after if you have a top 5 stud QB like Brady, Manning, Romo, Brees, or Palmer. With the 16 game consistency you get from those guys, you can afford to take a chance on a QB you would only need to play in an emergency. Jackson came on fantasy-wise down the stretch in 2007, and he's the fastest QB playing the game right now. He's very much a poor man's Michael Vick. He has an excellent offensive line, 2 great RBs, and 2 talented WRs in Bernard Berrian and Sydney Rice. He doesn't have the decision making and accuracy you'd like in a QB, but his speed and arm strength are both impressive, and there's a chance that something could click with all the talent that surrounds him. He's someone to keep in mind as a late round flier, or if he goes undrafted.

25) Alex Smith
ADP: 202.9 (16th round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued

What's Changed In 2008: New offensive coordinator Mike Martz, signed WRs Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson.

Overview: Alex Smith is a lesser risk than Tarvaris Jackson because he's going to play on a more balanced offense, and all things considered, he's a better QB with more experience. His WRs aren't great with Isaac Bruce, Bryant Johnson, and Arnaz Battle, but Mike Martz has made guys like Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald fantasy relevant before. They have a great RB in Frank Gore who's among the best pass catching RBs in the NFL, and Vernon Davis is easily the most talented TE that Martz has ever worked with before. I have faith in Mike Martz's offensive scheme to think Alex Smith has an outside chance of approaching QB1 value during at least part of the season.

Jeremy Shockey Traded To The New Orleans Saints

The New York Giants have traded TE Jeremy Shockey to the New Orleans Saints for a 2009 2nd and 5th round pick.

The New Orleans Saints finally landed Shockey after working for several months to acquire him. I believe the Giants realized how unhappy Shockey was in NY at this point and felt it was best to cut ties and add some draft picks to their 2009 draft. The Saints get a huge upgrade to work the middle of the field and take the attention off of Marques Colston, plus Shockey is a fearless run blocker. The Giants rid themselves of a headache and added some draft picks to help them out down the line. On the surface, this appears to be a solid trade for both teams.

Fantasy Impact: I like Shockey's fantasy outlook much better in New Orleans than I did in New York. He's moving to one of the most pass-happy offenses in the NFL where he'll be working with a far more consistent QB. With the Saints' ability to throw the ball down the field, this should open up plenty of room over the middle for Shockey to work. This will benefit Marques Colston as defenses will no longer be able to solely key on him with the previous lack of an established secondary target. Given all of this, however, you must remember that Shockey has some pretty serious health concerns. He's played mostly full seasons his entire career, but keep in mind that he's spent plenty of time banged up and not at close to 100% in too many of those games. After the hype of the trade dies down, we'll have to see where his ADP is at to see what type of value he'll offer given those injury concerns.

Kevin Boss will be the new starting TE for the Giants. His blocking was rather suspect, so he does have to work on that part of his game, but the talent is there for him to be a productive pass catching TE in his first season. He's draftable as a TE2.