Tuesday, February 20, 2007

Chargers Hire Norv Turner

The Martyball era of the San Diego Chargers is now over, and Schottenheimer has officially been replaced by Norv Turner. Turner has been a head coach twice before, amassing a 58-82-1 record between the Washington Redskins and the Oakland Raiders. He hasn't had a team as talented as the Chargers before, though. The main knock on him in the past was the lack of discipline his teams have had. However, he is a great offensive mind who engineered the dynamic Cowboys offense in the 90s, helped an Oakland offense overachieve in the 2005 season, and then he stopped by in San Francisco last year and helped turn around their offense in just the one season he was there.

He made a great defensive coordinator hire in Ted Cotrell, who is a 3-4 guru and will help maintain continuity in the talented SD defense. Their front 7 is as good as anyone in the NFL, although their secondary needs a bit of help and some additional talent. Turner also kept their new offensive coordinator Clarence Shelmon, the old RB coach. Shelmon will have a great tutor as Turner will control the offense.

The pieces are in place, both in positional talent and solid offensive and defensive minds, for the Chargers to take that next leap from playoff team to SB contender. It remains to be seen if Turner is the one to bring it all together and do what Schottenheimer couldn't for this underachieving team.

Fantasy Impact: This is great news for the Chargers offensive players. As mentioned before, Turner has been in charge of some good offenses in the past, and I expect him to help mold Phillip Rivers into a top notch NFL QB. Turner has also always engineered a powerful running game, so Tomlinson and Michael Turner, if the Burner stays with SD, should continue piling up great numbers. Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates will reap the benefits of the continued improvement of Rivers. Rivers should provide solid value as a QB1 drafted after the big names are gone, Tomlinson will remain the unquestioned #1 RB on draft boards next year, Gates should re-emerge as the unquestioned #1 TE, and Vincent Jackson is shaping up to be a nice sleeper to grab later in the draft as a WR3.

This isn't such great news for the 49ers offensive players. Alex Smith started to show promise last year, and Turner did what he could in the passing game with an undertalented bunch. Their only truly talented WR, Antonio Bryant, didn't help things either with his continued erratic behavior. Alex Smith was looking like a great QB2 to target, but I believe the offensive improvement will be stalled in a varying degree depending on who the 49ers hire to succede Turner. Their WR coach, Jerry Sullivan, is expected to be the top candidate right now and would help maintain continuity in their offensive system. It'd be a huge step back if they tried to alter their system yet again after showing major progress last year, but indications are that they won't do that. Their offensive line is mostly young and talented, save Larry Allen, who's still productive when healthy. That being said, I do expect Gore to regress from last year, but he's still safely within the top 10 RBs. He's a bowling ball with breakaway speed, proving he hasn't lost much of a step after multiple knee surgeries in college. Alex Smith drops down the QB2 list, but is still someone to consider with a lower QB1 ceiling. I have a feeling Frank Gore won't live up to his draft status if he remains in the top 5, but since it's possible he'll end up there again with the lack of elite RB options, he's worth considering after LT/LJ/SJax are off the board. Bryant isn't anything more than a WR4 with his inconsistent play and behavior, and Vernon Davis' star is dulled a bit, but he is still a breakout candidate after the bigger TE names are off the board and should be a lower TE1 next season at worst.

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