Thursday, March 1, 2007

Lions Trade Dre Bly To Broncos For Tatum Bell, George Foster

Today marked the first trade made this NFL offseason, with the Detroit Lions sending CB Dre Bly to the Denver Broncos for RB Tatum Bell and OT George Foster.

Denver is a big winner here, receiving CB Dre Bly. He's a former Pro-Bowl cornerback who fell out of favor with the Detroit coaching staff after Rod Marinelli implemented the Cover 2 last season. Bly is much more of a man-to-man, playmaking CB than he is a Cover 2 guy, and Denver pounced on the opportunity to replace the late Darrent Williams. Bly should experience a career resurgence within the new defense, and adding Bly to Champ Bailey will provide the Broncos with possibly the most talented CB duo in the league. After Manning torched the Broncos two years ago with a 400+ yard game in the first round of the playoffs, Denver has made it a priority to maintain a stronger defensive backfield, and this is just another example of that effort. Plus, they weren't going to start Tatum Bell or George Foster next year anyways, and this deal looks even better when you consider what exactly they gave up.

This creates a hole in their backfield, and it should be interesting to see how they fill that hole. Mike Bell is a capable backup, but he's not a starting RB in the NFL. With names like Thomas Jones, Willis McGahee, and Ricky Williams (assuming he's re-instated) available in the trade market, the Broncos might not be done dealing yet.

Detroit is helped by this trade as well. Kevin Jones suffered a severe Lisfranc foot fracture in week 14 last season, and his availability for the first part of the 2007 is in doubt. I've read varying reports on his timetable, but this is a tough injury to predict a recover schedule for. Tatum Bell gives them an explosive, but unreliable RB that will give KJ time to heal. Bell has always had breakaway speed, and playing on turf will suit his strengths. However, he's dealt with a myriad of minor injuries that have kept him out of several games seemingly each year he's been in the league. Plus, he had fumble problems last year as well. Mike Martz should help revive his career somewhat, but Tatum has one year left on his deal, and when KJ gets healthy I don't expect him to have any sort of major role. George Foster is a big, young OT. He didn't really suit the zone blocking scheme that the Broncos used as he isn't either small or quick. He could prove to be the more valuable property from this trade as he's only 26 years old and could prove far more valuable in a non-zone blocking offensive scheme. Still, with all that being said, they could have done better in return for the former Pro-Bowler Bly.

Detroit has two offensive tackles in their mid-20s in Jeff Backus and George Foster, so the rumors that they were interested in Joe Thomas with the 2nd overall pick can now be put to rest. With KJ and Tatum Bell, they don't need Adrian Peterson either. Free agency might provide another clue to the puzzle if they land Kevin Curtis as is rumored. Curtis would be a great fit opposite Roy Williams, plus he knows Martz's offensve well from St. Louis. If they sign Curtis, Calvin Johnson isn't an option either. Unless Martz falls in love with one of the top QB prospects, the Lions are a prime candidate to trade down. Depending on how far they trade down, they might still be able to land one of Quinn and Russell while accumulating more value for their pick.

Fantasy Impact: Bly gives Denver another playmaker in the secondary, so their defensive unit gets a slight boost. Until they can rush the passer consistently, however, they'll remain behind the elite, start-every-week defensive units like Chicago and Baltimore. They'll still hold opponents to less points and less yards than most of the defenses and can be used most weeks, though.

Tatum Bell, if he avoids injury and the fumble bug, should be a nice RB2 value in Detroit until KJ returns. He'll be a good mid-round pick depending on how much time KJ is slated to miss. Martz will find creative ways to get him the ball when he's in the game and utilize his gamebreaking speed. I expect if he's successful, he'll maintain some sort of role when KJ returns, which is more of a hinderance on KJ's value than it is a boost to Tatum's value. KJ is without question the better RB when healthy, so Tatum's value will be directly linked to how much time KJ misses. It's definitely not the best news for KJ's owners in keeper leagues, but like I said before, Tatum is only signed for one season, so don't go overboard yet. KJ is better suited as a RB2 if healthy with Tatum around rather than a RB1, however.

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