Wednesday, May 2, 2007

Hughes Hurt, Greinke and Burnett Suck, Sabathia Doesn't, Sheets Ks?

Some random player notes:

Phillip Hughes: I think Steinbrenner's deal with the devil has run out. Baseball's top pitching prospect had a no hitter through 6 1/3 only to hear his hamstrinng pop. He'll be out 4-6 weeks, and the Yankees lose yet another starter. Mussina is due back this week, so he'll slide into Hughes' now vacated rotation spot. I read a good analysis elsewhere, and it was stated that it'll be better for his arm in the long run that he's going to miss this much time. Torre might have been motivated to overwork him given the rest of the injuries and struggles in the Yankees rotation, and this will save 4-6 weeks of wear on his arm. Teams always have to be careful when they call up early 20's pitching prospects that aren't used to throwing more than maybe 140 innings or so.

A.J. Burnett: Boy is this guy frustrating or what? His stuff is incredible, but his location and consistency are not. One start removed from shutting out the Yankees for 7 innings, he gets blown up for 7 runs in 5 innings against Cleveland. He did K 7 batters, so he at least contributed something. I think he's best if he is not used against strong offense, especially until he figures out his control issues. He actually might be a decent buy-low candidate because I don't think his control problems will last all season long.

C.C Sabathia: I'm sure owners were furious with 3 HRs in the first inning, but at least they were all solo shots, and he was dominant after that. He should be one of the AL's top 5 pitchers this year, so if there's an owner worried a bit about him for some reason, pounce.

Zack Greinke: Well, the honeymoon period was nice while it lasted. He's just too hittable despite quality stuff, and he doesn't have a go-to strikeout/out pitch. He'll probably be inconsistent for most of the season, and given the weak offense that supports him, he's not worth owning in mixed leagues right now. I thought he'd be a good spot starter in mixed leagues, but getting blown up by Anaheim ruined that theory. It was really only one bad inning, but that seems to be the case more often than not in his starts.

Ben Sheets: Sheets was solid last night, beating a Cardinals team he has historically had problems with. He looks recovered from his groin injury, which is the most important thing. A bothersome trend that's developing is his lack of Ks. Over the last 3 years, he's averaging over a K an inning. This season, however, he's only struck out 16 batters in 36 innings. That's a huge drop, and some cause for concern for his fantasy owners. His strong fantasy value, when healthy, is tied to his bigtime K rate. I haven't read anything that indicates his velocity is down, so it doesn't seem like it's an arm problem, so I'm not sure what the issue is. This bears watching to see if it's just a fluke or the start of a trend. I'm not sure whether to recommend a buy-low, or to stay away.

Matt Holliday: En fuego. Now hitting .395, he looks entrenched as an offensive force for the next several years. Marked as a breakout candidate last season, he came through and it looks like this guy is for real. Hopefully Colorado will keep him in the 3rd spot so that he has Helton's protection.

Russ Ortiz / Tim Lincecum: Russ Ortiz got bombed again, and now sports a 6.44 ERA. Fantasy leagues have been waiting for SF to give Lincecum the call, and I have to imagine it'll be soon now. The Giants can't possibly think that Ortiz will outproduce their top pitching prospect over the rest of the season, even if they decide to limit Lincecum to 5-6 innings per start. If he's unowned, Lincecum is worth stashing now. I don't think he'll provide the same impact to teams that Liriano did last season, but he should be plenty valuable.

Takashi Saito: Many thought he'd take the natural 5 steps back that many Japanese pitchers do after batters have seen them for a year, but he continues to sparkle with a beautiful ERA and K rate. He picked up his first win last night after keeping the score tied at 1 in the 9th. Saito, unlike Takatsu and some others before him, has legit stuff and doesn't rely on deception and offspeed pitches to succeed. He should remain a quality closer the rest of the year barring injury. Sorry, Broxton owners...

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