Wednesday, May 30, 2007

Memorial Day Weekend Wrapup

Between Memorial Day festivities and a busy day at work yesterday, I've fallen a bit behind. Here's a recap of the action on Sunday and Monday...

Scott Olsen - A popular sleeper pick heading into the year, but he's done nothing but disappoint with a 5.11 ERA. He hasn't shown any signs of turning it around, so he's worth dropping in mixed leagues at this point for those who tried to show patience with him. Keep an eye and don't be afraid to pick him back up if he strings 3-4 solid performances in a row together.

David Wright - He stole his 10th base on Sunday, and he hasn't been caught yet this year. His previous high of SBs is 20, and he's now on pace for a bit over 30, so this is a nice surprise for his owners. However, his .267 AVG, 8 HRs and 27 RBIs are definitely a disappointment as we reach 1/3 of the way through the season. He's too good not to get real hot, so I'd look into buying him at a discount right now.

Alex Rodriguez - A-Rod continues his horrible slump as his AVG has now fallen under .300, and while the 5 HRs this month have been nice, his crappy batting average and lack of run production when he does get a hit are extremely frustrating. Look for him to get back on track sometime soon.

Bobby Abreu - He's now hitting .228, and there's no explanation for his struggles that I can see. Torre has tried moving him around in the lineup, but that hasn't helped either. He has a long career of .300 AVG and .400 OBP, so this is way out of line for his performance. He's not dealing with a leg injury as he's stolen 8 bases so far, but all other stats are way down. I'd still suggest buying low as his long career indicates this is quite an anomaly, but buy way low because his slump has hit 2 months and there's always a chance this could be some bigger problem.

Ryan Howard - It's safe to say he's back. 4/8 with 3 HRs and 5 RBIs over Sunday/Monday. His batting average, which was a fluky .313 last season, is sitting at a horrible .224. Expect a nice rebound there, but I don't see him hitting .300 again with the amount of times he strikes out (44 Ks in 34 games this year, 181 Ks last season).

Cole Hamels - Maybe I'm expecting too much from him, but a 3.74 ERA from this young kid seems a bit high. He's allowed 10 HRs already, so that's definitely playing a part in his ERA thus far. Unless he can control the HRs, expect an ERA in the mid 3's even though he has low 3's stuff. The fact he pitches half his games in Citizen's Bank doesn't help, either.

Adam Dunn - 2 HRs and 4 RBIs on Sunday, and he's putting together a great season so far. His .258 average would be the 2nd best of his career, and the 14 HRs with 33 RBIs, 38 Rs, and 7 SBs round out his season thus far. Despite the low average, Dunn is solid in OBP, posting OBP's over 100 points higher than his AVG for his career. It's a shame that manager Jerry Narron wastes that production when he could be hitting 2nd.

Nick Swisher - Adam Dunn - lite. Providing excellent draft day value with a .298 AVG thus far. His BBs are impressive as usual, and his K rate is a bit better this year. I don't expect his AVG to stay that high this year, so if you can find someone who does, I'd look to upgrade.

Joe Blanton - Gross. 8 ERs and 10 Hs in 6 IP. A popular waiver pickup in mixed leagues recently, myself included, and he's rewarded his owners with 2 staright poor performances. I'd hold him unless you see another pitching option on the waiver wire that you like a lot in case this is just a bump in the road, but he's disappointed badly last year and that can't be ignored.

Miguel Tejada - This recent power surge was a blessing for all his owners. He smacked 3 HRs in 4 days while driving in 8 runs and scoring 4 to bring him up to 5 HRs total. If he's re-discovered his power stroke and can get into the 25 HR range by the end of the year, he'll justify his draft position.

Scott Kazmir - Another slightly disappointing young southpaw. His walks continue to be a problem as he's up to 32 BBs in 66 IP, so there's a definite cause for his troubles. He limited this White Sox to 4 ERs despite 8 Hs and 3 BBs, so while he has the talent to fend off the walks and keep his ERA reasonable, he'll be more prone to disasterous outings unless he regains the improved command he found last year.

A.J. Burnett - Another solid outing, getting the 8 IP complete game allowed 3 ER and 6 baserunners while K'ing 8. He's found his control, and the results prove it. The 125 pitches are a concern for a pitcher with a history of elbow problems, so hopefully he'll have a shorter leash next outing. He gets the White Sox next, so I'd consider benching him. Many pitchers don't have their best stuff coming off a high pitch outing, so take that into consideration if you're on the fence about starting him.

Adrian Beltre - He hit his 7th, 8th, and 9th HRs over the weekend. If he happens to be unowned in your league, grab him given the lack of production from 3B this year. He's up to .270, and has chipped in 5 SBs as well. His production has gone in the tank after signing the huge deal to come over to Seattle after his monstrous 2004 season, but if he could get back to 30 HRs, he'll be a fine asset in fantasy leagues.

Kevin Youkilis - There is no hotter hitter in baseball right now. He has at least 2 hits in 9 straight games, and in the last 10 he has 4 HRs, 10 RBIs, and even a SB. He only hit 13 HRs last year, so the 8 HRs this year are on pace to kill that total. Congrats to those of you who had him, and shame to those of you who dropped him at some point (me in both leagues).

Noah Lowry - Gave up 7 Hs, 3 BBs, and 4 ERs in 4 innings. This is the type of blowup I said he was destined for, and I'd imagine at least one more is around the corner. Hope you didn't pick him up.

Jake Peavy - Johan Santana of the NL. 7 more shutout innings, with only 2 Hs and 1 BB while K'ing 8. There's no better pitcher in fantasy baseball right now, and the scary thing is that given everything (home ballpark, health), he's capable of keeping this up.

Randy Wolf - 6 innings of shutout ball with 5 Ks and 5 baserunners. His ERA is down to 3.41, and his K rate remains at a career best with 71 Ks in 66 IP. He's finally healthy and can keep pitching at a mid 3's ERA level all year long.

Rich Hill - A nice bounceback outing against LA after a rought stretch, matching Wolf with 6 IP of shutout ball, allowing 5 baserunners and K'ing 3. Unfortunately Pinella subbed him out when they needed a pinch hitter despite him only being at 66 pitches. His fantasy owners were probably unhappy about the situation, but even more important was a rebound to form.

Morgan Ensberg - 3 HRs in 5 days. Keep an eye on him...his hitting talent hasn't disappeared yet. Like with Beltre, the weak 3B crew this year warrants following 3B with a previous history getting hot.

Roy Oswalt - 6 IP, 10 H, 2 BB, 5 ER. Just a blip in the radar screen for Oswalt and nothing to worry about. Arizona can be a tough place to pitch.

Fausto Carmona - 7 IP, 9 H, 2 BB, 3 ER, 3 K, and another win. Carmona pitched out of a few jams and earned his 6th victory. Continue to ride the hot hand here.

Kyle Lohse - Another random great start from Lohse. Ignore.

Chuck James - 6 IP, 5 H, 2 BB, 1 ER, and a career high 8 Ks. He's a talented young pitcher and worth keeping tabs on. He's been very inconsistent this year, but he's mixed in some very nice starts.

Jose Contreras - After an almost spot-less May, he ends it on a sour note, allowing 13 baserunners and 7 ER in 5 1/3 IP. If you picked him up, don't panic based on one start, because he's quietly been very solid for almost a month now.

Johan Santana - Not his best outing allowing 4 ER in 8 IP, but with only 8 baserunners, 7 Ks, and a Win, who's complaining? These are some of his best numbers in his career through the first two months, and he's now entering the time where his hot streak usually starts.

Paul Konerko - Konerko continues to move out of his slump, raising his average 40 points over the past 10 games. I'd still try to buy low as his overall numbers look pretty bad, but expect him to continue hitting well the rest of the year, especially with Thome back in the lineup.

Jeff Francis - 7 2/3 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K. He's not a K pitcher, but he's pitching too well right now to leave him on the waiver wire. That's not 5 straight outings of 2 ER or less. Unfortunately that might mean he's due for a bad outing, but pick him up and use him in the right matchups.

Curt Schilling - And he's back. 7 innings of 6 hit, 1 ER ball with 10 Ks against a quality Cleveland offense. Feel free to get him back into the lineup if you benched him like I did during his cold streak.

Doug Davis - 8 IP, 7 Hs, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 Ks. Hmm, he's actually pitched well in 5 of his last 7 outings. Given what he did last year, the fact he pitches in a quality hitter's ballpark, and his large amount of walks outside of his last outing, I can't recommend doing anything with him other than pointing to his stellar ERA and getting rid of him. His ugly 1.62 WHIP and 32 BB in 66 IP are terrible signs heading forward.

Carl Crawford - After raving about his high SB percentage last week, he goes and gets caught in 3 of his next 4 attempts. He's actually been kind of a bust, with only 12 SBs (6 CS), 5 HRs, and 24 runs scored. The lack of power in the middle of the lineup is hurting him and he's been moved to the 3rd spot. It hasn't hurt his green light for stealing bases, but he's not being driving in as much as he would be leading off.

Steve Trachsel - A complete game, 1 ER performance that gives him a 3.39 ERA? Props to him for a great start, but don't you even think about picking him up. He has a 1.30 WHIP, which isn't bad, but is due to go up thanks to his abysmal 18:31 K/BB ratio.

Brian Roberts - 6 SBs in the last 10 games give him 19 for the year. He's definitely justifying the high draft position at 2B with all these steals to go along with the .312 AVG and 34 runs scored.

Bartolo Colon - He pitched well for a while, but his arm is bothering him again, and he was blasted for 11 hits and 9 R (7 ER) in 6 1/3 IP before complaining of additional arm soreness. Expect another DL stint, and unless you have an empty DL slot, go ahead and drop him.

Chad Gaudin - One of the more amazing stories so far this year. He pitched 6 2/3 IP of ER ball, only allowing 7 baserunners. He's been a quality pitcher all year, and while he's due for some regression, continue starting him as he's shown no signs of slowing down yet. If you can sell another owner on his performance despite the lack of name recognition, he'd be a great throw-in in a trade to upgrade somewhere in your lineup for cheap.

Alan Embree - 3 perfect outings in his 3 save chances. I was wrong to tell everyone to avoid the Oakland bullpen as he's stepped up and thrived in the closer's role, despite it being a small sample. With Duchscherer suffering a setback in his rehab and Street still out, he should have the closer's role for a while.

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