Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Tuesday: Buy Beltran / Otsuka / Zito, Sell Gagne

Dontrelle Willis - 7 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K. Willis actually pitched pretty well, although it was against the lowly Pirates. Honestly, if it wasn't for his name, his 4.83 ERA and 1.56 WHIP would be on the waiver wire. I'm not saying you should drop him, but I'd bench him until I see a hot streak. He hasn't had a good month yet, ending June with a 4.82 ERA and 1.71 WHIP.

Matt Capps - 1 IP, 1 K, SV (6). He's done a fairly solid job as a closer...exactly what I said he would do. He's given up some runs here and there, but his 2.70 ERA and 1.08 WHIP are very nice, and the 31 K in 43 1/3 IP isn't too bad.

Dan Haren - 6 2/3 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 4 K. Haren has slowly become more like the pitcher he is recently, but he's done an outstanding job of not getting blown up to make everyone notice. If you can turn him into a legit ace, I'd still do it, but I wouldn't trade him for anything less than that.

Alan Embree - 2/3 IP, 2 H, 5 ER, 3 BB. Yuck. That's 2 consecutive days of getting hit hard. He had 7 straight scoreless apperances before this, so I'm guessing his job isn't in jeopardy yet, but he better string together a couple more scoreless outings sometime soon. With Rich Harden currently in the bullpen and not seemingly able to pitch more than one inning at a time, and with Duch and Street still on the DL, the rumors of Harden closing I'm sure will be very popular about now.

Grady Sizemore - 2/3, 3 R, 1 RBI, HR (13). He's on pace for 25 HR, 45 SB, and 130 R. He could be a late 1st round draft pick next year.

Homer Bailey - 1 2/3 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 1 K. You knew he was going to get blown up sometime, and it came against Philly last night. I'd be picky with my matchups when starting him.

Adam Dunn - 1/3, 1 R, 2 RBI, HR (21). His current .271 AVG would be a career high, and he's on pace for a 40 HR, 100 RBI, 100 R season. Pretty much what his owners expected, although the 7 SB and higher AVG is definitely a plus, making him a bit of a draft day bargain.

Josh Hamilton - 1/3, HR (12). He's actually been hot at the plate recently, hitting 3 HR in his past 5 games. With only 25 RBI and 29 R, he's not much of a fantasy option right now, although you could ride out his power hot streak. He's definitely a solid bench OF with some upside, though.

Ryan Howard - 1/5, 2 run HR (17). One of the bigger draft day busts so far, although his 2nd half should definitely be an improvement over his 1st half. You might be able to get him at a discount, so take a shot at it.

Chase Utley - 3/4, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR (13). Outside of only stealing 4 bases, he's giving his owners exactly what they wanted, including posting a career high (so far) OPS of .971, and he's on pace for 120 RBIs.

Andy Pettitte - 7 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 5 BB, 2 K. Tons of baserunners, but he limited the damage. Too bad the offense didn't support him, although that's been his downfall all season long.

Jeremy Guthrie - 6 1/3 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K. His first time facing the Yankees was a success. I'm curious to see what happens the next time through.

Johnny Damon - 1/4, 2 run HR (5). Outside of the stolen bases, he's been a huge bust. He's playing hurt in order to avoid the DL for the first time in his career. The tough guy image is crap and he's clearly hurting the team and his fantasy owners with his subpar performance this year.

Akinori Otsuka - 1 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, W (2). The bad news? His stat line. The good news? Todd Jones didn't preserve the tie and Otsuka picked up the win. The better news? Eric Gagne is being shopped around, and Otsuka would reclaim the closer's role if Gagne is dealt. Given Gagne's injury history and age, there's no reason for the Rangers, who are out of contention, to hang onto Gagne. Be pro-active here and make sure Otsuka isn't unowned in your league.

Eric Gagne - 1 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 1 K, SV (8). The flipside of the Otsuka argument - trade Gagne. Trade him for a closer if you need one, or use him to upgrade another position. I just don't see Gagne being a Ranger through the end of the year.

Todd Jones - 2/3 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 1 BB. The price you pay for saves. He won't lose the closer's role because he's 18/21 in save chances, and 12 of the 21 ER he's given up have come in non-save chances. Still, owning him is like playing hot potato with a ticking timebomb...you just never know when he'll trot out there in a tie game to ruin your ratios.

Curtis Granderson - 2/5, 2 R, 1 RBI, HR (10), SB (9). With a .294 AVG, 10 HR, 40 RBI, 56 R, and 9 SB, he kinda reminds me of a cheaper, productive Johnny Damon.

Oliver Perez - 6 1/3 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 6 K. Another solid performance from Perez, but that's 3 more walks, making it at least 3 walks in 5 straight starts. I'm sure they'll continue to work with him to figure out what's causing the recent lack of command, but in the meantime, he still has the stuff to be productive.

Carlos Beltran - 1/4, 1 RBI, 2 SB (12). A pretty disappointing 1st half for Beltran with only 10 HR, 44 RBI, and 40 R coming off a season in which he put up 41 HR, 116 RBI, and 127 R. It's obvious his legs are healthy by the stolen bases, so he's another guy that I expect to put up a much improved 2nd half. The Mets offense is slumping, but they're too good for that to keep up.

Jon Garland - 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, W (5). The bullpen held a lead for the 2nd straight night, incredible! He's continuing to pitch well and provide marginal value in fantasy leagues. With 46 K in 104 1/3 IP, 41.8 GB%, and a 22.8 LD%, he's definitely defying the odds.

James Shields - 7 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 11 K. All good other than the ER. It was one bad inning as with 2 outs, he committed a throwing error on a ball hit to him, and that unraveled him as he gave up a 3 run HR, a solo HR, and 2 more singles before finally getting out of the inning. More was expected of him against the weak Chicago offense, but it was just one mistake here that led to the subpar outing. He does need to limit the HR, though, as he's given up 2 in each of his last 3 outings.

Jim Thome - 2/4, solo HR (10). Disappointing first half with only 10 HR and 30 RBI, although there was an injury mixed in that cost him about a month. Give him that month back, and he'd probably be at 15 HR/45 RBI, which isn't that bad.

Jeff Francouer - 1/4, CS. Andruw Jones must be screwing around with Francouer's swing. With a .232, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 4 R line in June, he's been absolutely worthless. He's been sitting on my bench in favor of Willy Taveras for about 2 weeks now, and I suggest you do the same until he does something positive. At least he produced runs last year when he wasn't hitting for an AVG. I do think he's a buy-low guy as he's too good of a hitter to keep doing nothing.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia - 2/4, 2 HR (4). I hope I don't have to type this name too much. He's a very good young hitter with a lot of potential, and he's also catcher eligible. Keep an eye on him due to that fact as the Braves are playing him some at 1B to get his bat in the lineup.

Ted Lilly - 6 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 5 BB, 5 K, W (6). Quite wild last night, but hung around long enough to pick up his 6th win. He'll be a bit erratic, but he's a solid 3rd/4th starter in your fantasy rotation.

Ryan Braun - 3/4, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR (6), SB (6). If he keeps this up, he won't be a sleeper at 3B next year. I really wish I had used my WW on him in the league I don't have A-Rod. He's been outstanding in all 5 catagories so far, hitting .342 to boot. He's hitting 3rd in a great Milwaukee lineup, so he'll be a run producer all year long.

Scott Baker - 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K. Quite impressive against a solid Toronto lineup. I talked him up a bit after his quality start following his callup, but he went south in a hurry. He threw well against the Mets last time out, and now this. Don't pick him up, but he is worth keeping an eye on.

Shaun Marcum - 8 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K. I guess I should address him with his 3.13 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. He was a reliever to start the year, but he's put up a 2.26 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP since moving into the rotation. With a 42:19 K:BB ratio, he's obviously not this good, but you should definitely ride out the hot streak. He might be a Chad Gaudin type.

Takashi Saito - 1 IP, 1 K, SV (21). With a 1.41 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and 41 K in 32 IP, he's been among the best closers in fantasy baseball so far. Amazing draft value for those who didn't doubt his season last year.

Chris Young - 1/5, HR (11). An injury held him back a bit and threw off his rhythm, but I expect an improved 2nd half from this youngster as he should be adjusted to the major leagues now. He'll probably be a liability in AVG, but his power/speed combination is very good and that will help your fantasy team in the 2nd half. I wish Arizona would lead him off again like they were earlier in the season.

James Loney - 3/5, 2 R, 3 RBI, HR (3). Another good, young hitting prospect has been called up, and it's about time. The Dodgers moved Garciaparra over to 3B to make room, and Loney's responded in a big way since starting every day for the past 5 games. I'm not sure what to make of his fantasy value yet.

Felix Hernandez - 5 2/3 IP, 11 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 5 K. Again with the garbage, although against Boston I expected this to happen. Apparently he wasn't locating his fastball very well at all, proving that you need more than just 97 MPH heat to get major leaguers out. I think he gets KC next, so I'll consider him depending on how I feel on the day.

Julio Lugo - 0/0, SB (20). Hitless over his past 8 games, and he's currently at .191. I hope you aren't still starting him trying to get steals...that's quite a price to pay in the AVG catagory. I don't know how much longer Boston will put up with this.

Gil Meche - 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, W (5). A solid outing against Anaheim, the team with the most wins in all of major league baseball. He continues to be a solid fantasy starter.

Ervin Santana - 5 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 0 K. A horrendous home start for Santana against a weak offense, and Angels manager Mike Scioscia mentioned after the game that he thought Santana might be hurt. If so, that'd provide a much better explanation for this performance than anything else.

Alex Gordon - 2/5, 1 R, 4 RBI, HR (6). Gordon is hitting .341 with 3 HR, 14 RBI, 14 R, and 5 SB in June. He's clearly arrived, so make sure he's owned in all leagues. He's defintely worth starting at this current time, and hopefully this carries over into a very strong 2nd half.

Joey Gathright - 3/3, 2 R, 2 SB (4). I don't know what the hell the Royals are doing by sparingly playing Gathright. He's hitting .333 in limited time, and he easily has the most speed on the team. This man should be leading off for them until he proves he can't handle doing so...it's not like the Royals are going anywhere. I know I suggested picking him up for his steals, but he's not worth using until the Royals commit more playing time to him.

Barry Zito - 8 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K. 2 solo HRs did him in, and the offense gave him no support. His 4.62 ERA and 1.38 WHIP are ugly right now, but keep in mind that the AL did the most damage. In 2 starts against Oakland and 1 against Boston, he had a 10.80 ERA and a 2.40 WHIP. Against the NL, he has a 3.61 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. So, now that interleague is over, he should be a fairly consistent fantasy pitcher the rest of the way. I think he's a decent buy-low guy who's 2nd half numbers will improve.

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