Well, at least there's two nights of baseball for us, still. The Home Run Derby is tonight, and then the All Star game tomorrow night. I enjoy watching all of the great players in these games since I don't see most of them with any regularity. Wednesday sucks, though, since there's absolutely nothing on that day. It gives us fantasy baseball players a chance to step back, relax for a few days, and then evaluate our weaknesses and prep our teams for the stretch run. Or, if you're out of it and are in a keeper league, it's time to acquire a few building blocks for next year. On to the recap of the last day of action before the break:
Ervin Santana - 3 IP, 7 H, 9 ER, 2 BB, 2 K. Absolutely disgusting, even if it was against the Yankees. Santana is just too good of a pitcher to have a 5.97 ERA, and given the home/road splits I've mentioned before (3.42 ERA at home, 8.59 ERA on the road), it's obvious that his mental state is the problem here. Because of this, Angels manager Mike Scioscia has talked about removing him from the rotation. Those of you spot starting him at home should take note of this as Scioscia is obviously tired of the subpar performance. No official announcement has been made yet, so don't drop him yet if you own him.
Chien Ming Wang - 6 1/3 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, W (9). Wang continues to disappoint in the K catagory by posting a measley 48 K in 104 1/3 IP, but with the 3.36 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and the 9 wins, he's been a very good 3 catagory pitcher. He should have no problem maintaining this pace in the 2nd half.
Alex Rodriguez - 2/5, 2 R, 4 RBI, HR (30). He took the HR lead back from Prince heading into the break. There's been no question that he's been the fantasy MVP this year with a .317 AVG, 30 HR, 86 RBI, 79 R, and 9 SB. Not only that, but he was often taken in the middle of the 1st round behind guys like Albert Pujols, Johan Santana, Jose Reyes, Alfonso Soriano, and sometimes trendy youngsters like Ryan Howard and Miguel Cabrera. I had him 2nd on my draft board behind Pujols as I felt his subpar year last year was causing him to become undervalued in the draft this year, and sure enough that was the case. I wasn't expecting him to be this good, obviously.
Hideki Matsui - 1/3, 3 run HR (11). Matsui has been a mild disappointment, only hitting .274. However, he's now up to 11 HR and 53 RBI along with 46 R, so he's right in line with all his other stats. He should be a lock for .290/10/50/50 after the All Star break, so he's a great piece to go after in a keeper league for teams looking to shore up their lineup, especially if you dangle keeper material in return.
Daisuke Matsuzaka - 5 IP, 10 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 4 K. Well, his streak had to end somewhere, and it came against the powerful Detroit offense. He had been on quite a roll prior to this start, putting together 6 straight appearances of 2 ER or less. No worries...a great offense got to him yesterday.
Manny Ramirez - 0/1, K. Ramirez didn't start due to a stomach ailment, but he took some antibiotics and was able to pinch hit. He'll be fine after the break health-wise, and us fantasy owners have to hope that he'll kick it into gear with his bat. The .284 AVG with 11 HR and 45 RBI has been a complete downer so far. His doubles total is up as he's hit 20 already this year, compared to 27 last year and 30 the year before. Hopefully those will become HR in the 2nd half.
Josh Barfield - 2/3, SB (9). He's been a huge disappointment after starting the year as a popular 2B sleeper. He did hit .317 last month, although didn't hit a HR and had only 2 SB. He has a chance to turn it around hitting in a great offense, so don't completely forget about him if you're struggling at 2B in the 2nd half.
Travis Hafner - 1/3, BB. I'm going to label him the 2006 Mark Teixeira of 2007...a bigtime hitter who puts in a very disappointing first half, but explodes to normal numbers in the 2nd half. Hafner had 2 huge seasons prior to this one, but his production has inexplicably dropped off the map with only 11 2B and 14 HR so far to go along with his .262 AVG. I think he is the biggest and best buy low opportunity out there right now. He's hitting .303 so far this month, so his AVG is there. I think the power will follow.
Aaron Harang - 8 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K. An outstanding performance from Harang, only to be wasted by David Weathers when he blew the save in the 9th. Harang is right on track with his breakthrough season last year, and he's posting a career-best 1.18 WHIP as well. Owners are getting exactly what they wanted from him this year so far.
Chris Young - 1/5, HR (13). 6 LOB yesterday as he continues to struggle. As I've mentioned before, I think he'll improve in the 2nd half on his .233 AVG. With 13 HR and 9 SB he's providing decent fantasy output from those catagories, but he's not doing enough in the others to be worth starting, and the AVG is a huge drag. Keep him rostered because he should start to figure things out more in the 2nd half. He's a great guy to target in keeper leagues as his breakthrough season might be next year.
Felipe Lopez - He's hitting .333 with 2 SB this month. I liked him heading into this year as a solid SB guy in the middle infield, but the .242 AVG is a disaster and he's only stolen 11 bases. Odds are he's not going to be relevant in fantasy leagues again, but don't completely forget about him if he starts to get his AVG up and steals bases again. He's eligible at both 2B and SS, which is handy.
Carlos Zambrano - 7 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K. He was wild from the get-go last night, and just didn't have his A game with him. It's a shame because he could have put up quite a stat-line against the Pirates, but it's also a good thing as a better offense would have lit him up yesterday. He was due for a let down, but yet still turned in a pretty good outing thanks to the matchup.
Jason Bay - 2/4, 1 R, 4 RBI, HR (13). He had good numbers against Zambrano, so I threw him in there yesterday and he responded with his best game in over a month. It's a shame that the All Star break comes directly after he finally hits well, so let's hope this is a springboard for a much better 2nd half. Behind Hafner, I believe he's the 2nd best buy low guy out there right now. He's had too good of a career up to the 1st half this year to suggest this is some sort of major problem.
Javier Vazquez - 9 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 8 K. 2 straight complete games as Vazquez is in the middle of his best stretch in a White Sox uniform. Owners have to be loving this as he's pitching like a fantasy ace recently. Like I've said before, his long history shows that this won't keep up. Perhaps he's logged enough quality starts in a row here for you to be able to sell high in some fashion, but I doubt it. Wouldn't hurt to try.
Justin Morneau - 2/4, 2 run HR (24). He's alternating blah and great months. He hit .271 with 6 HR in April, .314 with 10 HR in May, .247 with 4 HR in June, and he's up to .417 with 4 HR in July. Overall, it's equated to .295 with 24 HR and 74 RBI, so he's improving on last year's power numbers while keeping his AVG at a nice number.
Jim Thome - 3/4, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR (14). Dang it, Thome was also starting to get hot when the All Star break hits. He was hitting .333 with 4 HR and 13 RBI already this month as he got hot for the first time since back in April. Hopefully this will continue after the break. It appears his back is finally healthy again, although further problems seem likely. If you're a contending team, you might look to deal him for a younger power hitter to avoid any further issues with him.
Roy Oswalt - 7 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, W (8). A Carlos Beltran HR ruined what was turning out to be a terrific start from Oswalt. He finally showed some progress from what had been a long string of mediocre starts, and I believe he could be had at a discount given that. He's likely to bounce back with a much stronger 2nd half than how he pitched in the 1st half.
Jose Reyes - 2/5, 2 SB (46). He's definitely justifying the high price tag (most likely a top 3 pick) due to the insane amount of SB he's put in so far. With a .307 AVG and 47 walks (.387 OBP) in 86 games, he's taken a big step forward in being a true leadoff man for the Mets. After the 19 HR last year I'm sure many people were expecting 20-25 HR this year, but he's only delivered 4 HR so far. The reason is that he's turning himself into a more well-rounded leadoff at the sacrifice of his power. He's looking to get on base and set the table rather than swinging for the fences. Fantasy owners might complain a bit, but thanks to the position he plays, the tons of SB, and the great R/AVG numbers, I personally believe he's worth it.
Scott Kazmir - 5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K. Ridiculous. He can't even pitch well against the Royals. His 4.41 ERA and 1.58 WHIP would be on the waiver wire if it weren't for the big name, just as I said about Dontrelle Willis. The only thing you can do is bench him and hopefully he can figure something out over the break. He hasn't had a truly good start in over a month, and he's been insanely inefficient with his pitches.
Jonny Gomes - 4/4, 1 R, 3 RBI, HR (8). Tampa Bay has been smart and given him consistent playing time for a while now, and he's responded doing what he does best...getting on base and hitting for power. He has 8 HR, 10 2B, and 22 RBI in 133 AB so far this year. He's not going to hit much above .260, but he has legit power and should be owned in mixed leagues while he's playing regularly.
Barry Zito - 4 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 3 K. Dontrelle Willis and Scott Kazmir, anyone? Who would own his 4.90 ERA and 1.45 WHIP if it weren't for his name? I outlined his vs. AL/vs. NL team splits earlier, and I still think he'll be a quality fantasy pitcher in the 2nd half of the season. He had control problems against Cincy two times ago, and STL roughed him up along with some more control problems last time out. He was dropped in one of my leagues, and I'm tempted to pick him up to see how he fares after the break. I'd keep him benched unless it's a great matchup next time out, though.
Albert Pujols - 1/3, 1 R, 1 RBI. He's gone power cold, again. He hasn't hit a HR in 22 straight games, and he's frustrating owners. He's hitting .345 this month, and he's driving in an adequate amount of runs, but he's just not hitting like we expect him to this season in the overall sense. The HRs should come, though.
Kevin Millwood - 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K. His overall numbers are ugly, but he's turned in 4 straight quality starts, and he's won 4 of his last 5 apperances. I don't think he'll remain consistent enough to become rosterable, but I think he should be considered in spot-starting situations.
Nick Markakis - 2/4, 1 RBI. He was a very popular sleeper heading into the season, but much like Mark Teahen, a big hot streak and limited numbers made him look better than he was. He's hitting .280 with 9 HR, 51 RBI, 46 R, and 9 SB, so he's been pretty good, but he's not putting up the 25/100 line or better that some people were expecting. He is what he is right now, a solid 3rd OF, but at 23 years of age, he has some room for growth. Unless he has a big finish, he'll be a better pick next year after the hype has died down.
Kaz Matsui - 2/4, solo HR (3). He's been quietly putting together quite a nice fantasy season for a 2B, hitting .312 with 3 HR, 21 RBI, 39 R, and 16 SB in only 189 AB. He's finally becoming the fantasy player that many expected when he was brought over by the New York Mets. There's no reason he should be left unowned in any league.
Joe Blanton - 6 IP, 12 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 1 K. He was due for one of these. He actually got into an altercation in this game that got him ejected. A throw home got away from the catcher, and a Seattle player was standing nearby. Blanton fairly innocently shoved him out of the way to pick up the ball, and then Ellison from Seattle shoved him back, starting a bench-clearing brawl. Given the joke that is suspensions for starting pitchers, he won't miss any time if he is punished by the league.
Russell Martin - 2/2, 3 R, 3 RBI, HR (11). With a .306 AVG, 11 HR, 60 RBI, 51 R, and 16 SB, Martin is having a dream season for catchers. I definitely made a mistake not paying more attention to him. He had very nice numbers last year for a 23 year old catcher, and to think that he'll get better with age is a bit scary.
Greg Maddux - 5 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 2 K. Maddux was screwed by a very stingy umpire last night, and his performance indicates that. I wouldn't worry too much about this start and he'll continue being a solid end-of-the-rotation fantasy starter this year.
Bob Wickman - 1 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 3 K. Thanks to his 16/20 SV conversion ratio, he's not giving Bobby Cox any reason to remove him from the closer's role despite Rafael Soriano being a much better bet to close. If Wickman weren't closing, odds are he wouldn't be a very good reliever anyways. Fantasy owners are paying a price for the saves he's providing this year as he now has a 4.80 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP.
Andrew Jones - 3/3, 2 R, 2 SB (5). Jones is coming to life, so your buy low window is closing quickly. Act now because you'll get vintage Jones in the 2nd half.
Monday, July 9, 2007
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