Apology, Plus Fantasy Football Prep

Between work obligations, plans for the weekend, and doing some research for my 3 upcoming fantasy football drafts, I obviously didn't get a chance to do anything on this site since last Thursday. I'll be back with the daily baseball updates tomorrow.

To be honest, there hasn't been much of note in baseball outside of the usual daily grind, and with the fantasy baseball trade deadlines likely past and the waiver wire about dry, there isn't a whole lot to do with your rosters other than pray you made the right moves along the way and feel comfortable with your roster come crunchtime in the last month. Hopefully I've helped you get there in some fashion, which was the whole point of me starting this blog. Once the season is over, I will go over all the sell high and buy low suggestions I've made and see how I did. There's always something to learn.

I'm very conflicted on giving fantasy football advice regarding specific players, but I did give a complete RB breakdown a couple weeks ago. The problem is that some of my friends that I play fantasy football with read my blog as good friends do, and I don't need them inside my head as our draft approaches the final weekend before the season starts. :)

I will say this though: simply going through "mass media" rankings won't get you anywhere, in all likelihood. The way to get ahead is to be smarter than the average player. Every "expert" out there gives you his top rankings for each position, and if you've seen one, you've seen them all. LT #1? Really? Wow, that dude's awesome. You have Chad Johnson in your top 5 WR? Well, there's something new. The fact is that the top 10 at each position has close to 50% turnover from year to year, and you're best served by avoiding the half that turns over. Most rankings don't take that into account...they likely mirror last year's top 10 with a few exciting young players mixed in. Which leads me to my list of things to know.

1) Average Draft Position (ADP). If you haven't used it before, make this your first year doing it. This gives you an idea of where players are going, and it's best to look at the most recent results prior to your draft to pick up on the latest trends. If someone is going at a certain location in a draft, take a minute to understand why he's there. Is it a player who experienced a career year? Is it a breakout youngster with the ability to do more? Is it an unproven player who is subject to too much hype? Is it a veteran player who's on the verge of wearing down? Has the player moved to a better/worse team? How has his team changed in the offseason? Factor everything in.

2) Know your draft position. Commissioners, I'm looking at you. I hate leagues that don't provide your position slightly ahead of time. Even if it's only a week, give your guys an advanced heads up as to where they're picking. It makes planning easier for everyone, and the draft spot selection process can be fun as well.

3) Throw out players that likely won't be available to you in the first few rounds. It goes without saying, really, but don't get into arguments over whether you like Larry Johnson or Frank Gore better if you pick 8th. Focus on the guys that will likely be available, but be prepared to pounce if someone slips too far.

4) Don't go in with a set strategy. You're going to hurt yourself if you go in saying "well, I want to go RB/RB" and stick with it. Say there's a huge RB run early on, and Manning makes it to you in the late 2nd round. Do you really want to take Cedric Benson over Peyton Manning because you went in wanting 2 RBs?

5) Pick a sleeper at each position. This somewhat ties into my last point. There's going to be a position you tackle later on in every draft. Whether it's your 3rd WR, your QB, whatever...have a guy picked at each position based on ADP that you wouldn't mind starting, but can get later in the draft. That way you're not scrambling if you take 4 RBs in the first 7-8 rounds because you liked who fell to you, but don't have a QB or TE yet.

6) Don't take a defense til late. OK, I know how the Bears defense paid off big for those who drafted them early, but Baltimore burned people who took them early the year before, and Carolina the year before that. I understand those who take the Bears high again this year thanks to the returning players. However, don't be passing up on important RB and WR depth just because your friends make fun of you since you don't have a starting lineup yet. They'll be wanting that quality 4th RB you took later because they panicked and drafted some 2nd rate defense too early.

7) Don't take a kicker til the last round. Half of the kickers that finish in the top 10 come off the waiver wire. Did anyone draft Robbie Gould last year? How about Neil Rackers the year before? Doubt it. Unless you're in the 2nd to last round and just don't like the players left, go ahead and reach for a Vinatieri or some established star kicker on a powerful offense. Otherwise, just wait til the last round. Kickers are a dime a dozen.

8) Don't draft a backup TE, K, or D unless your league roster specifications require it. Unless you have a TE like Winslow who is an injury risk to start the season, there's no point in having a 2nd TE. There's never a reason to draft an extra K or D. Those roster spots are far more valuable when used on RBs and WRs that could emerge at some point during the season.

9) Lastly, don't be afraid to take a risk. The best part about a draft is when you take a chance that pays off and gets you into the playoffs or the championship. Just because all the fantasy outlets have LT ranked over Steven Jackson, for example, don't be afraid to take Jackson first because you like him more this season. Do what you think is best for your team.

My last point is combining the top two things on my list with my last point: mixing ADP, your draft position, and your opinion. Let's say you picked first, and you're looking over your options with the first pick of the 5th round. Let's also say you like a guy who's usually going in the middle of the 6th round better than the guys at the same position that usually go towards the start of the 5th round. Understand that it's your team, and it's your decision. Don't follow the ADP herd and let it drag you down; use it to your advantage. Use it to realize that the guy you like most that goes in the middle of the 6th might not get back to you, and go for him. It's much better screwing up with your own decision than missing out on a gem because you're not supposed to take him there.

Now, who's ready for some football!?!?