Johan Santana Traded To The Mets

The New York Mets have traded for SP Johan Santana. The Minnesota Twins received OF Carlos Gomez, SP Deolis Guerra, SP Kevin Mulvey, and SP Phillip Humber.

Fantasy Impact: The initial reaction to this trade would be that Santana's fantasy stock just went through the roof. On the surface, this appears to be the case. He's moving to the weaker league, which should mean more Ks as he'll face pitchers and pinch hitters rather than designated hitters. He's moving to a stronger team (although with a weaker bullpen), which should mean more Ws. He's also moving to a bigger ballpark, which combined with the weaker hitters, should mean a stronger ERA/WHIP. This is definitely a boon for his fantasy potential in 2008, but I still feel he's over-valued. He was a top 3 pick last year on average behind Pujols and Reyes, and he figures to go in the top 5 this year among Pujols, A-Rod, Reyes, and Hanley Ramirez. He's the surest bet among pitchers, but since there's so much turnover from year to year among the top pitchers, you'll have no problem finding a steady ace later on in the draft. Starting pitchers, even ones as dominant as Johan Santana, still only contribute to 4 catagories. When you start looking at the middle to lower half of the first round where guys like David Wright, Chase Utley, Matt Holliday, and Ryan Braun are taken, you just can't substitute the 5 catagory contributions those guys add to your team as easily as you can a starting pitcher. 2008 very well could be Santana's best season yet, potentially creating a dominant performance in the 4 SP catagories, but it's not enough for me.

Among the players headed to the Twins, the only player with a chance of making a contribution in 2008 is Carlos Gomez. That depends on the playing time he'll log in CF for the Twins, plus if he'll hit in the leadoff spot when he does play. It's worth keeping in mind, but as a rookie, temper your most optimistic expectations.