NFL Draft Fantasy Football RB Analysis

I'm skipping QBs. Rookie QBs don't offer much of anything in standard redraft leagues.

Let's take a look back on the NFL Draft and figure out which RBs will offer fantasy football value during the 2008 season:

RB:

Darren McFadden - McFadden is obviously the closest thing to Adrian Peterson in this year's draft. He's incredibly talented, but he's joining a somewhat crowded backfield. Last season's starter, Justin Fargas, was re-signed in the offseason prior to the draft. Fargas, however, has a long history of injuries and likely won't last starting all 16 games. Last season's draft choice, Michael Bush, is returning from a broken leg and has reportedly impressed very early on. McFadden is clearly the most talented runner of the group, though. With crazy Al Davis over-riding coach Lane Kiffin whenever he feels like doing it, it wouldn't be surprising to see him push McFadden onto the field as often as possible. All in all, we'll have to wait to see where he goes in drafts before figuring out what will happen with him. This situation could resemble last season's Chester Taylor/Adrian Peterson situation, but Michael Bush is the wild card here.

Jonathan Stewart - Stewart is a top 3 member of the rookie RBs most likely to start. Carolina parted ways with previous starter DeShaun Foster, but their former RB-of-the-future still remains on the roster in DeAngelo Williams. I personally thought Williams could be another Brian Westbrook if given the chance, but his skills just don't fit what Carolina desires in their primary RB, including the mediocrity that Foster had given them the past two seasons. Carolina wants a power running game, and Stewart is far better suited to provide that. Williams has the talent to start in the NFL, but his skills need to fit the offensive system, which makes you wonder why Carolina drafted him in the first place. Stewart's turf toe injury warrants concern, as does his experience in a spread offense. Keep a close eye on reports of his health in training camp. He should be given a chance to become their primary RB, and he's my favorite rookie runner as of now.

Felix Jones - McFadden's complement in college joins another committee at the next level; this time with Marion Barber. Given the Cowboys just inked Barber to a long term extension last week, they're showing committment to Barber as the primary ball carrier. Barber's ability to last as a 300 carry RB is very much in question given his violent running style, so Jones will be a lesser committee member at worst. I put the odds on Barber lasting 16 games as very low, especially given the history of 1st time starters, so Jones should see a couple starts provided he shows he belongs. Jones is a speedster with the talent to start at the NFL level.

Rashard Mendenhall - Mendenhall would have made perfect sense for the Bears, Cardinals, and Lions, but he kept falling on draft day, and he landed right in the Steelers' lap. Willie Parker is going to start as he's earned it with 2 successful seasons in a row as the primary ball carrier, but Parker has his faults. He's poor in short yardage, and he's not impressive in the passing game. Mendenhall is a much better fit for their desired power running game, and he's also better at blitz pickup and catching passes. At first, expect Mendenhall to be given every chance to be the short yardage and 3rd down RB for the Steelers in his rookie season, and I expect him to take some of Parker's carries. Should Parker go down, he would have incredible fantasy value. Until then, he's a RB3.

Chris Johnson - Johnson was a shocker for the Titans as they really didn't need another RB project. With LenWhale White hossing up the carries plus the post-game buffet, Johnson isn't left with much to feed upon. Last year's 2nd round project Chris Henry is still around and showed some promise, so Johnson is battling for a backup role. Johnson has ridiciulous speed, but his thin frame presents durability issues, although he's built similarly to Clinton Portis coming out of college. He's not worth targeting unless injuries blow up the Titans' backfield. He's competing with Henry for a true backup role, although he should have the upperhand if nothing other than the fact he was a 1st round pick. Johnson should earn a 3rd down/change-of-pace role with a strong pre-season.

Matt Forte - Forte, along with Stewart, is a top 3 member of the rookie RBs most likely to start. Cedric Benson has never showed much at the NFL level, is coming off of a bad broken ankle/leg, plus he's had a drunken incident in the offseason to boot. Unfortunately the Chicago Bears aren't a team that will quickly admit mistakes, and Benson is still being called the team's starting RB. Benson has always had the pure talent, and it's possible that Forte's arrival will motivate him to finally cash in on that talent. Forte isn't special in area, but he's a solid all-around RB, and in a fair world he'll be given a chance to win the starting job. As a Bears fan, I love the fact that he's a blue-collar worker without the big attitude, and I think he's a great fit for this team. At 6'2/222, he's a load, and he also possesses open-field speed, blocking prowess, and the ability to catch the football...none of which Cedric Benson has. The only knock on him was facing weaker competition while playing at Tulane.

Ray Rice - Rice was a bigtime producer at the college level at Rutgers, but he'll move directly into a backup role for the Ravens behind incumbant starter Willis McGahee. McGahee revived his career last season, so Rice will be a true backup, but McGahee does have his durability concerns. He'll be an excellent handcuff for McGahee owners, and he'd have a lot of value as the Ravens starter should McGahee go down. He's a powerful runner with good speed and solid passing game skills.

Kevin Smith - Smith is the remaining top 3 member of the rookie RBs most likely to start. The Lions released Kevin Jones amidst all of his injuries, and Smith's only competition is the underwhelming Tatum Bell, and Brian Calhoun, a 2nd year RB coming off a torn ACL with no NFL experience. Considering the competition, he might have the best chance to start of all 3. The Lions, with Mike Martz gone, are expected to eliminate the spread offense and focus more on traditional formations with 2 WRs and the running game. Smith has talent as evidenced by just missing Barry Sanders' record for most yards in a season, but given concerns about his monster senior year college workload (450 carries!!) and the competition (played at UCF), he fell to the 3rd round despite a higher 2nd round draft grade by many outlets.

Steve Slaton - Slaton was in the limelight after his monster sophomore season, but a recurring wrist injury hampered his ability to hold onto the football as he fumbled often during his sophomore and junior seasons. Already labeled a durability concern with his thin frame, this didn't help his draft stock. Slaton will probably never be an NFL workhorse, but he landed in a good spot in Houston. The injury-prone Ahman Green and Chris Brown are ahead of him, although the coaching staff is also high on 2nd year man Chris Taylor. Slaton will have to prove healthy and able to hold onto the football to earn playing time, but he's a great fit for a zone blocking team like Houston.

Ryan Torain - Sleeper alert. First of all, Denver drafted him late, making him noteworthy immediately. Secondly, he was very talented, but a broken toe in the middle of his senior year killed his draft status. He has the disappointing Travis Henry ahead of him, as well as last season's late draft choice/breakout player in Selvin Young. The Denver coaching staff doesn't appear interested in making Young a workhorse given his thin frame, but Torain is anything but that at 6'1/222. Torain is a great fit for the zone blocking system and shows good all-around skills. If Torain recovers from the fractured toe and shows well in traning camp, keep a very close eye on him.

Tim Hightower - Slightly lesser sleeper alert. With Edgerrin James nearing the end of his career and the Cardinals lack of depth at the position (Marcel Shipp, J.J. Arrington), Hightower could immediately emerge as a committee member with the potential to start despite being a 5th round pick. He is worth watching closely thanks to the lack of depth ahead of him, and a solid offense around him. It would probably take an Edgerrin James injury to give him a lot of fantasy value, but at Edge's age, it's very possible.

Mike Hart - A player worth watching thanks to his situation. Kenton Keith is on thin ice thanks to his offseason brush with the law. The Colts really like Hart, and the only thing that kept Hart from being drafted higher was his slow 40 time. He produced against bigtime competition for 4 years in college, so he's worth watching as a potential backup to seemingly oft-nicked up Joseph Addai.