The #3 Pick

It's been a long hard road for my brain as I sorted through the candidates for the #3 pick. Here's my thoughts on the top 3 after much consideration:

Steven Jackson - Steven Jackson is one of the best RBs in the NFL. Unfortunately he is stuck on a very mediocre, possibly bad offensive situation. His offensive line is already banged up a bit, losing their two top backups (Brandon Gorin and Mark Setterstrom), and Pace suffered a scare while injuring the same shoulder he had surgery on last year. Their starting line is intact, for now, but they have no depth. Torry Holt is still a great WR, but he isn't the deep threat he once was after several years of knee problems. Isaac Bruce is gone, and he is replaced by Drew Bennett, who was miserable as their slot WR last year. Bennett has reportedly had a good camp, but the Rams NEED him to step up to keep attention away from Holt. There's nothing behind Bennett worth mentioning. Randy McMichael could re-emerge under new offensive coordinator Al Saunders, who has a history of getting the most out of his TEs (KC - Gonzalez, WAS - Cooley). Saunders runs a great scheme, similar to Martz, so the transition won't be so bad. I've already detailed the injury concerns of his 2006 370 f/carry season and what it means for him moving forward, and now we have to add in the holdout. Dick Vermeil, who won a Super Bowl with the Rams in 1999, noted a study that he did showing that players who hold out have shown a higher likelihood of getting injured. That's 2 strikes against Jackson. All in all, that's some scary territory coupled with an uncertain offensive situation.

Joseph Addai - Joseph Addai exploded onto the scene last year, but as I noted in his wrap-up, he posted an alarming slide in the 2nd half. Addai simply has never been a workhorse back at either the collegiate level at LSU, or the pro level until last season. Addai also isn't a special RB...he's simply a well-rounded RB who does everything good, but not great. With the uncertain health regarding Manning, Addai could NOT carry this team by himself. He's just not that type of RB. Addai is more reliant on his situation than any of the top 3 RBs, so losing Manning would hurt his value. He's on a great offense if everything is going well, does provide solid value in the passing game, and he scores as a very good short yardage back. However, he has a very annoying propensity to get knicked up and come out of games, so I really question if you can rely on him for 16 games, and most importantly, down the stretch.

Brian Westbrook - Westbrook took his game to a higher level last year, and odds are if you had him on your team, you probably made the playoffs. His incredible ability in the passing game makes it very hard for him to post a bad week, and he posted his best rushing season. There's concern about the fact he's missed games with his knee over the past couple years, but he tends to always play through it despite not practicing too often. With Curtis out for about half the year and Reggie Brown not taking a step forward, it seems as though the Eagles will have to rely on him as their offensive centerpiece once again. McNabb's health should present a more consistent Eagles offense this year, so perhaps Westbrook can turn in his career high in TDs. The knee is a bit of a concern, but injury is a slight concern for all top runners. I think Westbrook is the wisest choice of the top three given that he has a consistent and arguably improved offense around him with McNabb healthy, he is a stud from week 1 to week 16 despite a missed game here and there, and he's in his prime.

It's hard not to take the talent of Steven Jackson, but I think Westbrook represents the best option of the three RBs off the board after LT/AP. Both have injury concerns, but there are some real scary facts working against Jackson's ability to stay healthy this year right now.