RB1 Value Analysis Recap

1) LaDainian Tomlinson

ADP: 1.1 (1st round, 1st pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 6th

Recap: What an odd year for LT, and crazily enough, he was worth a top 2 pick. I was right that 2008 was the year he would start to fade, although it was mostly due to a toe injury. The rare times he felt 100%, he looked like the old LT, but it was far too infrequent. Still, he finished 6th, and of the other 1st rounders, only AP finished ahead of him.

2) Adrian Peterson

ADP: 2.2 (1st round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 4th

Overview: AP looked like his usual dominant self for most of the season, playing in all 16 games and avoiding the injury bug. He led the league in rushing, and Frerotte's insertion into the lineup gave the Vikings some semblance of a passing attack for a while. He pretty much performed as expected.

3) Brian Westbrook
ADP: 3.5 (1st round, 3rd pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 10th

Overview: In an odd way, Westbrook actually did live up to his draft position. Despite finishing 10th, only 3 other first rounders finished ahead of him, and if you handcuffed Buckhalter to him, you got some pretty good production in the games that Westbrook missed. Westbrook's injuries were certainly a problem as they hindered his production in a few games, and that certainly isn't going away.

4) Steven Jackson
ADP: 4.4 (1st round, 4th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 15th

Recap: Jackson actually produced pretty well, especially down the stretch, when he wasn't hurt. However, during the 4th quarter of his monster effort against Dallas, Jackson injured another leg muscle that cost him several games. He honestly shouldn't have been out there in a game that was over, but given the ineptitude of the STL coaching staff, you probably weren't surprised. However, those injuries, as I warned you about, didn't allow Jackson to be worth the high pick.

5) Joseph Addai

ADP: 4.7 (1st round, 4th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 38th

Overview: Bust. Addai played like crap, battled numerous nagging injuries again, and only post a couple serviceable games. Addai simply isn't a feature back, and I don't expect the Colts to fully trust him outside of a committee again.

6) Marion Barber
ADP: 8.3 (1st round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 17th

Overview: Barber was a top RB until the Dallas team collapsed. Romo's injury allowed defenses to stack the box, and then after he returned, Barber suffered a toe injury that ruined the last 5 weeks of his season. Those who thought Barber would wear down could claim I told you so from the numbers and injury, but it was a freak injury and he was as strong as ever prior to the injury.

7) Frank Gore
ADP: 8.9 (1st round, 9th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 14th

Recap: Gore was tearing it up until an ankle injury slowed him down considerably the last 5 weeks, including 2 missed games. He was a perfect all-around fit in Martz's offense and put up the numbers of an RB1 when he played. The injury derailed his season, but he certainly looked like a stud for most of the season.

8) Larry Johnson
ADP: 10.6 (1st round, 10th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 30th

Recap: Bust. LJ actually got off to a promising start against some weak defenses, but between the various off-the-field altercations, the suspension, and the poor performance, LJ simply never returned to form.

9) Clinton Portis
ADP: 11.2 (1st round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 9th

Overview: Portis was dominating the first half of the season, but the large workload it took him to get there caught up with him, and he faded badly down the stretch. Campbell's continued inconsistent play also hurt as teams loaded up against the run. Portis actually lived up to his draft status, especially if you replaced him down the stretch when he faded, but he wasn't undervalued given the slow finish.

10) Marshawn Lynch
ADP: 14.0 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 13th

Overview: Lynch put up a solid season, but the Bills fascination with Fred Jackson killed Lynch's upside. Jackson is clearly the favored 3rd down back, and he comes in far too often as a replacement for Lynch. There's no question that Jackson is talented, but Lynch is a better 1st/2nd down RB that should have received more carries. Lynch was a solid value pick, but not a difference maker that I thought he'd be.

11) Ryan Grant
ADP: 14.1 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 22nd

Overview: Grant started off very slow, but picked things up in the 2nd half of the season and finished relatively strong. TDs were a problem as he only scored 5 all season despite Green Bay having a powerful offense, and he was inconsistent as he offered nothing in the passing game until the final 3 games. He certainly wasn't RB1 material.

12) Willis McGahee
ADP: 15.8 (2nd round, 4th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 35th

Overview: McGahee's season was a mess. His knee surgery cost him week 1, and then he was in and out of the lineup between various injuries and game planning decisions. He wasn't even an RB2 this year despite being drafted as an RB1.


RB1 Summary: I was pretty on par with most of my value analysis for the RB1s. I had a couple minor misses as my RB1 favorites Barber, Portis, and Gore hurt their "under valued" ratings with late season fades, and Westbrook was actually a solid pick. I definitely hit the busts of the group in Addai, LJ, Grant, and McGahee. Only 4 of the top 12 RBs finished in the top 12, which is pretty high turnover!