My 1st Round Conundrum

So I drew the #6 pick in my local fantasy football league, and much like last year at the #3 spot, I'm sifting through a bunch of players. Here are the guys that I've thought through:

LaDainian Tomlinson - I have already removed him from consideration. He doesn't possess the skills any more to be dominant, so he has a limited ceiling, and they're not paying Sproles $6 million under the franchise tag this year to only use him as a true backup. Plus, at age 30 with all the carries he's had in his career, his downside is pretty bad. His surrounding offense looks very good again, but I'd much rather hop off the bandwagon a year early than a year late. This is in line with what I wrote for my draft guide.

Steven Jackson - The 375 f/carry study that I'm a firm believer in shows a frightening trend of RBs that never return to dominance after a season with that many touches (375 carries + (1/2) * receptions). 80% of the RBs who had a season with that many touches barely get to the RB1 level again, and they almost never return to top 5 RB status. Sure enough, Jackson has missed 4 games in each of the past two seasons with leg injuries after hitting that mark in 2006. While he's been plenty productive while on the field, he hasn't been reliable. Plus, his surrounding offense looks awful. Bulger and top receiver (ha) Donnie Avery are both out already with a fractured pinkie and a fractured foot, respectively. The offensive line has improved, especially in run blocking, but how the hell are these guys going to move the ball and get a lead with such a horrible passing attack?

Chris Johnson - A great talent behind a great offensive line with an improved array of receiving talent (signed WR Nate Washington, drafted WR Kenny Britt, emergence of TE Jared Cook), but LenWhale hosses many TDs and is a drain on CJ's fantasy value. Still, very much a consideration.

DeAngelo Williams - I love his talent, and his season last year was very much real despite the fluky 20 TDs that won't be repeated. He also has a very good offensive line, and Delhomme/Smith will keep defenses out of the box. Jonathan Stewart is an even bigger threat to DWill than LenWhale is to Johnson, but Stewart couldn't stay healthy in college, and he wasn't healthy as much as he should have been last year despite being the lesser part of the committee. He didn't play last week and is continuing to miss entire practices with some undisclosed Achillies injury. DWill is definitely under consideration with Stewart still missing time.

Steve Slaton - I just don't like him that much despite him playing behind a solid offensive line on a great offense. Plus, Houston has been looking all offseason for a short yardage/goal line back, and currently have Chris Brown taking goal line carries now. Brown is hardly reliable, but it's clear that Houston prefers to not use Slaton at the goal line, and in that case, I'd rather have Chris Johnson.

Brian Westbrook - See LT. Still has great skills and will be playing for a very good offense, but I jumped off the train last year and I'm not hopping back on it this year. I don't want to own him the year he goes south for good, and he's coming off of 2 major offseason surgeries (knee, ankle). He'll be productive when on the field, but he's not going to be on the field for 16 games.

Frank Gore - Usually taken in the late 1st/early 2nd, I am hardly opposed to drafting someone earlier than ADP indicates as evidenced by my Barber pick at #3 last year. Gore is reportedly in excellent shape, and he's going to be the focal point of the offense under Mike Singletary. Much like Steven Jackson, he does everything well and doesn't have much talent behind him to push for carries. Gore's line is questionable, but he's been running behind a questionable line for years. The passing attack will improve despite Martz leaving town. Durability remains a concern after multiple ACL tears in college and several nagging injuries the past two years, but I honestly don't see much difference between him and Steven Jackson despite about 7-8 picks between the two.

Out: LT, Westbrook, Slaton
Questionable: Jackson, Williams
In: Johnson, Gore