Monday, August 10, 2009

Training Camp Heroes And Zeroes

We finally have our first preseason game under our belt with Tennessee topping Buffalo in the first game of the season. Nothing stood out from that particular game other than how far Vince Young has fallen. However, there have been a couple players making noise in training camp thus far, and I'd like to make mention of them here. Now there's going to be a ton of "he looks quicker, faster, and stronger!" reports coming out of camps, but there are certain players that make enough noise to actually start believing the reports.

ROOKIES

Percy Harvin - I was originally skeptical about what type of role that Harvin will have, but he has reportedly been outstanding so far in training camp. He has the eye of the coaching staff, and he's a true playmaker...someone they really needed to keep attention off of Adrian Peterson. With the aggressive Sage Rosenfels likely the week 1 starter, Harvin could very well overtake both Berrian and Sydney Rice to be the top pass catcher on this team. Minnesota will constantly move him around and attempt to get him the ball both in space and down the field. I think he has emerged as a very good WR4 candidate to target, but he's a risky WR3 for those who start 3 WRs. I'd rather have him proven his role the first couple weeks, and then move him into my starting lineup.

Knowshon Moreno - Moreno missed a bit of time getting his contract hammered out, but Denver is already throwing him in with the first string offense. He hasn't won the starting job yet, but that's more of a "when" than an "if". He's an ideal RB3 candidate who has a very good chance to post RB2 numbers for most of the season. If you're risky and into taking QB and WRs high, you can target him as your RB2.

Chris Wells / Tim Hightower - Wells signed quickly, but then injured his ankle in his first post-contract practice, and in his absence, Hightower is showing improvement over his problems last season with indecisive running and poor pad level. He certainly has the talent to make some noise, and supposedly he is distancing himself from Wells at the current time. Hightower has a chance to start in week 1, which would crush Wells' value and upside. There's still plenty of time for things to change, but I certainly wouldn't go making Wells my RB2 in any draft.

Michael Crabtree - I already had him rated as overrated, but his holdout is crushing his fantasy value. He's threatening to sit out the 2009 season, but we've already seen what damage that can do when Mike Williams did it (for a different reason), and I don't think he's stupid enough to actually go through with it. He's fighting an uphill climb to be paid more than his draft slot is worth, and SF is intelligently not budging. He's not going to start in week 1, and it may take an injury ahead of him for him to even matter in fantasy leagues this year. Avoid him in redraft leagues.

Matthew Stafford - Stafford continues to win over the new Detroit coaching staff with his intelligence, and we all know he has a cannon for an arm. He's going to be inconsistent like most rookie QBs, but if he ends up winning the starting job, which I think he will at this point, he'll be a guy to keep a close eye on for possible QB2 value. He has a chance to be more like Matt Ryan than Joe Flacco as he'll be playing on a slightly more aggressive passing offense without a dominant defense supporting him. This would be good news for Calvin Johnson as his big arm will fit Johnson's dominant ability to get downfield, and it would allow the chemistry to grow immediately from week 1.

VETERANS

Chris Johnson / LenDale White - As evidenced last night, White is still the go-to guy for the goal line work. He entered the game as soon as the Titans got inside the Bills 10 yard line, and he scored on his 2nd carry. This should put to rest any thoughts that CJ will snipe goal line carries from White this season, and further enforces that the Titans will employ the same running game strategy as last season, with CJ probably getting a few more touches. CJ remains a solid 1st round pick, but his TD totals will suffer a bit compared to the other RBs drafted around him, except for Slaton who looks to be in a very similar situation.

DeSean Jackson - Jackson is looking like the best player at Eagles camp. He suffered a hyperextneded knee over the weekend, but it appears to be a minor injury and nothing something that will cost him much time. Jackson is likely to lead the Eagles is receiving, and while his upside is limited by the spread-the-wealth nature of the Eagles offense, he's emerging as a very interesting WR2 that can be had once the bigger names are off the board.

Donnie Avery - Avery suffered a stress fracture in his foot that will reportedly keep him out 4-6 weeks. He was an intrguing WR3 before this news, but his status for week 1 is in doubt, and the lost time in a new offense is going to hurt once he gets back out on the field. I wouldn't be taking him as anything more than a WR4 right now.

Roddy White - Just a quick note here that his small holdout resulted in a nice payday, and that he's practicing again. I hadn't mentioned it as I didn't see it as a problem, and luckily it turned out that way. Don't change your thoughts on him because of a missed week or so...he's a WR1 who could possibly make the jump to elite this season.

Brandon Marshall - Marshall suffered some sort of injury in practice last week, and rumor has been that it's a setback with his surgically repaired hip. With new coach McDaniels coming from the Belichick coaching tree, don't expect to hear much of anything about what's actually wrong. This is a big concern as he's expected to miss practice this week. Keep a close eye on him.

Kevin Jones - There have been glowing reports of Jones all offseason, and this jives with the fact that Jones is still a very talented RB who's now over a year removed from a torn ACL. He should be back to 100%, and he's an important piece of the Bears offense to help keep Forte fresh this season. He's an excellent Forte handcuff.

Vernon Davis - He's already gotten into one training camp fight, and there's a rumor that he started a 2nd one. For a player who's maturity is holding him back, this is a serious concern. I still think he's worth a stab as a TE2, but those waiting on TEs this year should probably avoid relying on him as a starter. He certainly has the talent and the offensive system to be a TE1 this year, but it appears he's yet to grow up.

Greg Olsen - He continues to receive positive reviews and will be a focal point of the Bears passing attack this season. He's almost certain to take the next step, and he could even flirt with elite TE1 value this season.

Dallas Clark - Colts writers are raving about the chemistry Manning is showing with Clark, and I'm inclined to think that Clark is destined to hang with the great fantasy TEs despite his injury risk. Gonzalez will battle for more targets than the declining Harrison did last season, but Clark is arguably the 2nd option behind Wayne.

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