My Newest 1st Pick Conundrum

I have my 2nd draft on Monday night, and I pick 12th out of 12 teams in this one.  I'm obviously in a much different situation than in my previous draft where I picked 6th.  The bad thing is that this significantly alters my preparation for the 1st - 4th round picks, but the good thing is that my targets for the 5th round and beyond stay the same.

The 12th pick in the draft is one of the most ideal positions to get a little crazy.  I am generally married to taking a RB in the 1st round, as I've never drafted another position there before in my 9 years of playing fantasy football, but the FF world has changed with many teams utilizing a RBBC attack on the ground.  Frank Gore's ADP is holding steady at 14, and my ideal situation is him falling to me at 12.  If that's the case, then my draft will be very easy from then on out.  If he doesn't fall, then I'm looking at the following players:

Brandon Jacobs - Jacobs was the #12 RB last season, but with 3 missed games.  Missed games are a staple of owning Jacobs it appears.  He mostly makes up for it by being a TD beast (ignore the 2007 anomaly), but I generally like RBs that catch passes so that they remain productive even in games where their teams are often trailing.  The good thing is that with the Giants defense, they'll be in more close games than most teams.  Bradshaw won't hinder Jacobs any more than Ward did last year, and it's not a bad thing because of Jacobs' propensity to get injured.  He's also an excellent change-of-pace to keep defenses on their toes.

Marion Barber - I'm not worried about Barber's injury issues that some people talk about.  He's only had one injury, and that was last season with that toe injury.  I'm also not too worried about Choice's emergence last season because despite his impressive performance, he's still clearly 3rd on both the talent and depth charts.  What I am worried about is the lack of offensive explosion without Owens...Romo needs Roy Williams to step up and fill that void.  Williams has the talent, but it's anyone's guess as to if he'll actually man up and produce.  Barber was a RB1, the #7 RB actually, in 2007 when he last had that "closer" role on the offense.  I think the Cowboys will put him back in that role, especially with Felix Jones looking so good.  The problem is that was with the Owens-led team, they had that explosive element that allowed them to get leads, and then Barber mashed defenses in the 4th quarter.  This team's makeup is different.  It might balance out better as they'll favor the running game more since that's where their best talent lies, but it's hard to say.

Brian Westbrook - He's 30 years old and coming off of two major offseason leg surgeries.  I'm not buying that he'll return to form, and given his ADP has sank to 2.07, it appears fantasy nation is somewhat agreeing.  McCoy's hype has faded a bit after showing that he goes down a bit too easy, but I just don't see Westbrook making a fantasy splash in 2009.  I'll pass.

Clinton Portis - Portis has lost his explosion from his earlier career, and at 28 with the amount of carries he's had, it's not surprising.  He won me two fantasy titles during his two seasons in Denver, so I have a place in my FF heart for him.  :)  He needs a huge workload at this stage of his career to be a stud, like he did during the 1st half of last season, but he just can't handle that anymore.  He's not a RB1 anymore.  I'll pass.

Ronnie Brown - Yes, I'm considering Ronnie Brown at the 12/13 turn.  Yes, his ADP is 3.09.  The fact is that I will not have a chance at him with the 3.12 pick because I know there's a couple guys in my league that also like him.  In 2007, he was a RB1, the #1 RB in fact, before his torn ACL.  He's a do-it-all RB, in a contract year, playing in a run-first offense with a great offensive line.  I initially wavered on my Brown/Thomas decision in my first draft, but I'm more comfortable with it now.  Thomas' knee injury doesn't particularly scare me, but it's hard to know what's going on in Sean Payton's crazy head.  PT's knee injury might have him wavering as to how much he wants to use him this season.

After looking at the RBs available at the end of the 3rd round (Kevin Smith, Thomas Jones, McFadden, Addai), I just can't see taking two of those guys and having a great backfield.  I know this is the area that Turner and Forte exploded from last year, and it could be Smith and McFadden this year, so maybe I'll change my mind.  I'm tentatively ruling out going WR/WR.  I wouldn't consider a QB that high no matter what...there just isn't enough of a drop off in my mind from 1st to 8th QB or however many til I decide to take one to warrant taking one.  I'm going to have to balance out the pros/cons of Brandon Jacobs, Marion Barber, and Ronnie Brown.  As of now, I will admit I'm leaning towards Brown...he has the best upside of them all.  You need to take a chance drafting that late in the 1st round, and that might be the one I take.

Just let Gore fall and I'll be just fine.  :)