Week 1 Thoughts

Since the first week is complete, I'm going to go through each team with some week 1 analysis.  I feel this is particularly important as fantasy owners tend to want to panic too early each year, so I'd like to address what I feel is actually worth worrying about.  I have sorted the teams so it's easier to find who you're looking for.

Arizona Cardinals - Warner looked old, just like he did in the preseason.  This simply isn't going to be the same offense this season, and it's a concern for Warner/Fitz/Boldin owners.  Boldin didn't look 100% yet, and he was on a snap count.  Hightower was still dancing too much, and Beanie Wells ran with no nonsense.  Wells will eventually dominate carries here if he can stay healthy, so he's a high upside RB3.  The Cardinals will have to run more this year.

Atlanta Falcons - Ryan was a bit inaccurate down the field, missing on some big plays where receivers got open.  I'll attribute that to rust as his final numbers still were solid.  Michael Turner was bottled up by a good run D, and this is a bit concerning as Turner will be facing much better run defenses this year than last.  Plus, Tony Gonzalez gives them another option at the goal line.  I still stand firm that Turner will not live up to his top 3 draft billing this year, but will definitely put up some big games mixed in.  It's the consistency that will be a problem thanks to a lack of receiving ability.

Baltimore Ravens - Flacco was given the green light and set a career high in both attempts and yardage while tossing 3 TDs.  Now this is the Chiefs defense we're talking about here, so we can't get too excited, especially with his mundane weapons.  However, Flacco is looking like a stronger QB2 than expected at the moment.  Ray Rice looked great, but McGahee was exclusive at the goal line.  I'd like to see how Rice does against a tough defense first, but it's clear that he'll get his carries and receptions this year.  Mark Clayton and Todd Heap are healthy, which helps Flacco quite a bit, but with as injury prone as those two are, it's hard to say for how long.

Buffalo Bills - Trent Edwards did a good job with his play calling, keeping the Patriots off balance for a lot of the game, but he again was completely reliant on underneath passing despite having 2 excellent deep threats.  I did hear during the game that the Patriots were often doubling both WRs, which makes sense given the lack of other receiving options they possess.  Both Owens and Evans were undertargeted and not very effective.  Fred Jackson, however, looked very impressive and will be forcing a timeshare with Marshawn Lynch if he keeps this up.  He's a complete RB.

Carolina Panthers - What a disaster.  Delhomme is going to kill Steve Smith at this rate.  I don't want to overreact to one game, but he looked just as bad as he did in the playoff game against Arizona last season, and that can't be good for his confidence.  If Delhomme goes in the tank, newly signed AJ Feeley will start.  Furthermore, Stewart completely cut into DeAngelo's carries with a 14/11 split in favor of DA.  Luckily Williams made up for some of it in the air (4/42), but Stewart actually replaced him on the goal line a few times.  This has the potential to turn into a mess, and it's something that Williams owners have to honestly be concerned about.  The fact they nursed Stewart's injury for so long totally threw me off, but a healthy Stewart was going to play more.

Chicago Bears - I swear Grossman underwent plastic surgery and had us all fooled out there, looks-wise at least.  The offense looked pretty brutal, but Cutler did have a couple nice deep throws to Knox who stepped out of bounds, and to Hester for a TD.  Olsen was doubled relentlessly, so they'll need to find a way to fix that.  There's going to be some growing pains here, but I still think Cutler will manage borderline QB1 numbers when all is said and done.  He's more of a match-up play this season though.  Forte was completely bottled up and will need the passing game to come around to give him some room.  He wasn't quite as explosive, which is a concern.  With the Steelers up next, it doesn't get any easier.

Cincinnati Bengals - Palmer looked good, and both of his INTs were not really his fault.  One came on a ball that bounced high up in the air on an attempted catch, and the other came as a last second heave.  Coles dropped a ton of passes, and he could arguably be the 4th best WR on this team behind Ochocinco (very solid first game), Chris Henry, and Andre Caldwell.  Benson also looked solid with workman-like numbers and a TD.  Feel confident with Palmer and Ochocinco moving forward, but I'd probably shy away from Coles until he bounces back.  Since he's a veteran, he'll have a chance.

Cleveland Browns - Ugh.  Quinn looked bad, and it killed Edwards.  Lewis looked surprisingly spry, so he's not giving up his job without a fight.  James Davis did nothing, but he did suffer through an auto accident earlier in the weekend, so we'll give him a week 1 pass.  This passing game worries me.

Dallas Cowboys - Who needs TO?  Romo looked great, and Roy Williams showed he still has explosion the slant he busted for a 66 yard TD.  On top of this, Barber dominated the backfield (14-6) while back in his closer role.  If the passing attack can keep this up, Barber will be a borderline RB1 again, just like he was in 2006/2007.  He'll score 10+ times.  Crayton had a fluky game aided by an uncharacteristic 80 yard TD.  Don't rush to throw him in your lineup.

Denver Broncos - Orton was shaky again, but this was to be expected as he works out the kinks in the new offense.  I know I sound like an Orton apologist, but I believe in the players he has around him.  Marshall was back to dropping passes again, and he didn't target Royal enough.  Stay with the Broncos passing game; it'll come around.  Their backfield looks like a nightmare right now, and Moreno can't be started.

Detroit Lions - That went about as well as could be expected.  Stafford wasn't accurate and threw 3 INTs, but he was clearly willing to throw the ball down the field, which is an extension from the preseason.  That's great news for CJ who produced 90 yards on only 3 catches.  He should have had a TD, but the refs blew the call on the field, and then blew the challenge.  Ridiculous.  Kevin Smith didn't generate much on the ground, but he scored and got 22 touches thanks to 7 catches.  He might threaten RB1 value in PPR leagues this year.

Green Bay Packers - Rodgers had trouble, but the Bears defensive pressure was dominant and forced some bad throws when WRs were open.  No worries...Rodgers won't be facing this sort of pass rush each week.  He salvaged his day with a game winning bomb to Jennings with just over a minute left, which was the opposite of last year when he posted huge numbers and often came up short late in games.  Ryan Grant had a good burst and looked like a solid RB2 on the field.  I think I might have been wrong about him this year, assuming he can stay healthy.

Houston Texans - Disaster.  Also, patience.  They faced a ferocious Jets defense who attacked them all game long with a very aggressive pass rush.  There is way too much talent on the Houston offense to be worried.  Darrell Revis is evolving into one of the elite shutdown corners in the NFL, and he held AJ in check.

Indianapolis Colts - It wasn't pretty, but they got it done.  Manning looked good outside of an awful forced throw to Wayne on a fade in the endzone.  Wayne was absolutely dominant.  Gonzalez's injury will help Dallas Clark's fantasy value.  The running game looked bad, especially Addai, and Brown actually got most of the 4th quarter work.  The committee is in full effect, but if Addai can't make some plays, he could start losing even more touches.

Jacksonville Jaguars - MJD was featured, and was really the only offense.  Garrard did the best he could to make some plays, but his receivers didn't help him out at all.  Holt struggled to separate, and there's nothing going on opposite him.  They badly need the talented Mike Sims-Walker to cash in on his talent and start producing.

Kansas City Chiefs - Nobody expected 24 points against Baltimore, but a blocked punt TD and a long INT return inside the 10 certainly helped change that.  Croyle did a reasonable job filling in for Cassel, but only lead one good TD drive all game.  LJ was completely ineffective.  Bowe scored to save his owners on his first catch in the 3rd quarter, and he didn't catch another pass until hauling in a couple in the 4th quarter.  He is going to be doubled relentlessly, so we'll have to keep an eye on how he handles that.  Mark Bradley's good game was definitely a positive moving forward.  He certainly has the talent to help Bowe out opposite him.

Miami Dolphins - Despite a lot of outlets talking about Ricky Williams looking slow in the preseason, he looked plenty quick, and the 13/9 touch ratio between Ronnie and Ricky is a true concern moving forward.  This looked exactly like last year, and when Ricky replaced Ronnie at the 9 and caught a TD pass, it felt like a kick to the crotch.  Miami clearly needs to establish the run next game as they looked lost on offense.  Ronnie Brown is still this team's best offensive weapon.  I'm not overly worried as Ronnie is probably everyone's RB2, and he'll be able to produce at that level, but his RB1 upside will be killed if they continue to use the same split as last year.

Minnesota Vikings - Favre spent most of the game handing off to Peterson, who mauled in the 2nd half and posted a monster game.  As Favre gets up to speed, expect better things from Bernard Berrian.  Percy Harvin was used all over and got 5 touches, so also expect him to become more involved as well.  Sydney Rice looks like a red zone weapon with his size.  He's going to score some TDs this year.

New England Patriots -  Brady certainly didn't start as hot as he showed in the preseason, but he certainly finished that way.  He's definitely back, using Welker underneath and Moss down the field exactly as you'd expect.  Watson also turned in a huge game, and he's worth owning as a TE2.  They do need a 3rd receiving option to continue to leave things open for Moss and Welker.  True to form they used a full out committee, and Taylor even scored on a goal line carry.  Maroney and Taylor are worth RB5 roster stashes, and Faulk is definitely worth owning in PPR.

New Orleans Saints - That went according to plan.  Everyone looked great, although I'm sure Colston owners were fuming a bit...thankfully he scored once.  Mike Bell looked terrific, and this is pretty much worst case scenario for Pierre Thomas owners.  Bell might have just forced his way into a 3 man committee, but let's not overreact yet until Thomas returns.  Thomas owners need to own Bell, obviously.

New York Giants - Eli actually looked good...he spread the ball around to all his receivers.  Unfortunately, Nicks sustained a sprained foot and will be lost for a few weeks.  Jacobs struggled, but the Skins' defense projected to be tougher this year.  No worries.  Bradshaw looked great with his touches and will be a RB3 this season...he has clearly assumed Derrick Ward's role from last year.

New York Jets - Mark Sanchez looked great, spreading the ball around to his receivers well and remaining calm.  Thomas Jones looked explosive again, so Shonn Greene is an afterthought for now, but I don't believe he'll last the season.  Leon Washington, as promised, was given 15 carries and 4 catches as well.  Washington looks like a good RB3 this season as he's clearly a bigger part of the offense.  Cotchery and Keller both look like good options moving forward, but expect ups and downs as you normally would with a rookie QB.  It won't always look this good.

Oakland Raiders - Russell looked horribly inaccurate yet again for most of the game, which is his biggest downfall right now.  DHB also continued his dropped passes.Louis Murphy, on the other hand, looked pretty good and will probably start opposite Chaz Schilens when he returns.  Zach Miller dominated the middle of the field and put up TE1 numbers.  He's a favorite of Russell's, and there's no reason he shouldn't be owned.  The rushing attack looked dominant in the 1st half, but San Diego caught on and started slowing it down in the 2nd half.  The Raiders used a full committee of McFadden and Bush, and both looked very good, with Bush getting the call at the goal line.  Expect this to be their strategy this year.

Philadelphia Eagles -  Thanks to the defense doing the heavy lifting, McNabb and Westbrook weren't asked to do much, and luckily both scored at least once to keep the owners happy.  McNabb's rib injury needs to be monitored this week, and the fact they signed Jeff Garcia is probably indicative that he won't play.  They've lost a ton of confidence in Kevin Kolb.  Westbrook looked great, helping ease concerns about his offseason surgeries.  I'm not confident he'll last (who is?), but he's the man while healthy.  McCoy looked good filling in, but most of his carries came with the game out of hand.  The receivers will bounce back, but they need to be downgraded if McNabb misses time.

San Diego Chargers - Phillip Rivers started slow, but turned it on the 4th quarter when it was time to step up.  He finished with respectable numbers.  Vincent Jackson posted a solid game despite being blanketed by Nnamdi Asomugha all game, and Gates dominated the middle of the field while looking healthy again...he missed a TD by inches.  Sorry LT owners, your high pick is in a full out committee.  He also sprained an ankle in the 1st quarter and was constantly coming out of the game after a rush.  Sproles looked explosive while LT did not, and Sproles is the official 3rd down RB.

San Francisco 49ers - Gore was the clear focal point of the offense, and while he certainly didn't impress with his YPC, he scored twice and caught some passes to turn in a good fantasy day.  Josh Morgan was absent the entire 2nd half after posting a solid 1st half.  I would assume an injury would have been announced, so my guess was he did something wrong and Singletary isn't making a spectacle out of it like he erroneously did with Vernon Davis last year.  Speaking of Davis, he looked solid and they tried to get him the ball.  Make sure he's owned as a TE2.

Seattle Seahawks - Wow, I was totally surprised by this.  Now they were playing the Rams, so like with the Ravens, expectations have to be kept in check, but Hasselbeck did a great job spreading the ball around.  He's going to be effective while healthy.  Housh caught 6 passes, but had a long of 9.  I read he did absolutely nothing after the catch, so he's going to have a very hard time fulfilling fantasy expectations if that continues.  Carlson looked good, but he's going to have to block more than he did this game against better defensive fronts.  I'm not sold on him as a TE1 despite the big game.  Julius Jones dominated carries until the game got out of hand, so he's the clear starter here, and a low end RB2/solid RB3 much like Cedric Benson.  He's only a match up play.

St. Louis Rams - Steve Spagnolo's season couldn't have started off any worse.  Marc Bulger reportedly looks shell shocked out there, and people are calling for him to be benched immediately.  Steven Jackson started hot, but the game got way out of hand.  The most disappointing part of this was Jackson's lack of involvement in the passing game, but don't worry, I guarantee you they'll fix that.  Laurent Robinson looked very good and along with Donnie Avery, the Rams actually have a good duo at WR.  Now if only they had a QB...

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Leftwich, per usual, took some hits but moved the offense.  Cadillac most certainly is back, but he's evenly splitting with Derrick Ward.  Earnest Graham owners can forget about him for the time being.  Cadillac will be a popular add this week, but he's not worth starting if he's only seeing 10-15 carries, especially since neither Caddy nor Ward are the official goal line back.  Both can succeed in that role as evidenced by their 1 yard TDs.  Caddy has a better chance of staying healthy in this timeshare situation.  Antonio Bryant's knee acted up again, and this is a serious concern.  I'd keep him benched until he proves he's healthy.  Winslow looked solid.

Washington Redskins - The offense looked about as expected...mediocre.  Cambell was OK, Portis did nothing outside of his 34 yard first run, Cooley turned in a fine day, and Randle-El surprised people (don't go picking him up).  Blah all around.  I wouldn't start anyone but Cooley here.