Monday, September 21, 2009

Week 2 Thoughts

Week 2 is now in the books, so let's take a look at each team and determine what trends are beginning to emerge, and what we need to start getting excited and worried about.


Arizona Cardinals - Warner put up a much better stat line, but he's still not taking shots down the field like he did last season.  You have to assume that's related to his hip issue as it's affecting his throwing velocity and distance.  He's obviously still a solid QB1, but you can't get too excited about his rebound in week 2 as it was against one of the league's worst secondaries.  Wells fumbled twice, and that's going to kill his ability to overtake Hightower.  His first fumble got him yanked before a goal line chance, and the second got him yanked from the game.  Hightower will continue to start, but Wells has the talent to overtake him if he can hold onto the ball.

Atlanta Falcons - Ryan looked great in week 2, and it's obvious that Atlanta is willing to throw the ball more this season.  Ryan is taking the next step and is a good QB1.  Tony Gonzalez is playing like a stud, but unfortunately it's affecting Roddy White as they are now splitting the role of the primary read, especially around the goal line.  Still, since Atlanta is continuing to throw the ball, White will get his.  Thanks to 28 carries, Turner broke 100 yards and scored once as well.  Given the poor Carolina run defense, owners probably expected more, and his 3.4 YPC is a bit concerning.

Baltimore Ravens - Flacco, turned in another solid fantasy performance despite Baltimore being in the lead for most of this one, tossing 2 TDs.  Of most concern is the mess that is the Baltimore backfield once again.  Despite Rice being used as the primary ball carrier throughout the preseason and in week 1, he started and posted 52 total yards in the first quarter, but barely played after that point.  McGahee ran well, but what really confused me was how Rice did not play his way out of that game.  Nothing about an injury or the coach's doghouse surfaced after the game, so it's safe to say the backfield is a mess right now.

Buffalo Bills - Trent Edwards appeased Terrell Owens, at least for two throws, by taking two shots down the field.  The first was a 32 yard TD to Lee Evans on the first drive, and then later he connected with Owens on a 43 yard TD.  Outside of that, however, he was perfectly content to dump off to RBs and TEs, and it severely limits the upside of both Owens and Evans.  Both are arguably nothing more than WR3s right now.  Fred Jackson continues to kill it on the ground and has been an outstanding RB2 while Lynch has been suspended.  His owners get one more week of it.

Carolina Panthers - Delhomme put Steve Smith owners at ease by coming back with a solid game, and if he can keep this up, he'll be back to a reasonable QB2.  Smith was also back to being himself as well after a week 1.  The backfield continues to be split, with a 16/9 advantage of DeAngelo.  This is looking like the same thing as last year, although Carolina just isn't going to repeat the same dominance on the ground.  Luckily DeAngelo tossed in a TD after a drive anchored by Stewart, or else the fantasy numbers would have been switched.  With Stewart re-emerging as a major threat for carries, DeAngelo is going to have to keep scoring consistently to be a RB1.  I know it's only two weeks in, but if someone is willing to pay a full RB1 price for Williams, do it.  He's not getting enough touches.

Chicago Bears - Cutler rebounded in a big way against a great Pittsburgh defense, although they were without Polamalu.  Still, his owners loved the improved accuracy and 2 TDs, and the Bears fans loved the redemption by leading a game winning drive.  Chicago is clearly not set on their WR depth chart with rookie Johnny Knox leading the team in receiving this week, and he was often playing over Earl Bennett.  We could see a switch here...Knox gets open and Bennett doesn't.  Forte is killing his owners so far, and they couldn't have liked seeing Benson run all over GB's defense while Forte got stuffed against them last week.  His owners have no choice other than to stay the course.

Cincinnati Bengals - Palmer rebounded from a couple horrible early picks by making some big plays and totaling 4 TDs.  Benson continues to tear it up, and he's showing much quicker feet and decision making than in Chicago.  I think Benson will be a solid RB2 this season assuming he holds up to the workload...his skill set is very close to Rudi Johnson's.  Chad Ochocinco continued to impress, but the WRs opposite him are a rotation right now.  Cincy really needs to consider starting Chris Henry.

Cleveland Browns - Double ugh.  Brady Quinn continues to look bad, but at least he allowed Braylon to post a very good game.  Jamal Lewis was mostly ineffective.  Outside of Edwards, this is a wasteland right now.

Dallas Cowboys - So, maybe Romo needs TO after all.  He posted his worst game in a long time, especially considering it was at home.  He was mostly inaccurate, and all 3 INTs were completely his fault.  Roy Williams is not seeing top WR targets, and you have to wonder how much of this is him simply not getting open.  On the flipside, both Marion Barber and Felix Jones looked great against a tough Giants defense, but Barber came up lame with a pulled leg muscle, so keep an eye on that.

Denver Broncos - Orton started shaky again, but then settled down.  The biggest news is how he seems to use all of his targets, and also how Denver is rotating their WRs.  Marshall and Royal, despite easily being the most talented WRs on the roster, aren't being targeted like it.  I suggest owners stay the course and continue using both as a WR3 as these guys are too talented to continue posting blah lines like they have been.

Detroit Lions - Stafford continues to throw INTs as he's up to 5 through the first two weeks, but at least for CJ owners, he found him for a TD.  Stafford is going to have to stop turning the ball over to avoid going to the bench.  We all know this team isn't playing for anything and Stafford will benefit from the playing time, but the coaching staff isn't going to sit back and watch him have multiple turnovers each week.  Stafford and Johnson's chemistry will continue to develop, so it's promising that CJ has posted the numbers he has so far while the two get comfortable with each other.  Kevin Smith posted another workmanlike performance, although the lost fumble hurts.

Green Bay Packers - Rodgers is getting no protection while taking 10 sacks through his first two games.  He also suffered from a couple awful drops.  The protection is a problem and needs to be monitored...Rodgers isn't going to post big numbers unless he has sufficient time to throw, but luckily he's mobile enough to make some plays.  I'm going to suggest Rodgers as a buy-low.  Jennings simply had a bad game, no worries.  Ryan Grant posted another TD to save his fantasy day.

Houston Texans - Patience rewarded.  Schaub and AJ posted monster days, but Slaton is still not doing anything on the ground yet.  I doubt there's much concern about the passing game anymore, and Jacoby Jones has the talent to step up and be a weapon for this team.  I wouldn't pick him up as Walter should return next week, but he could emerge as their slot WR.  Slaton has faced two very tough run defenses so far with NYJ and TEN, but it's still a concern.  He made things happen last year, and he's not doing it this season.

Indianapolis Colts - Monday night game.

Jacksonville Jaguars - The offense continues to look putrid, and Garrard only put up numbers in garbage time once the game had been decided.  MJD was held in check thanks to the game circumstances, and hopefully for his sake, this offense can right the ship.  Torry Holt again only posted modest numbers, and it's clear that he's only a shadow of himself even post-STL.  Mike Sims-Walker emerged, and I think he's here to stay as long as he's healthy.

Kansas City Chiefs - Cassel returned, and it's safe to assume if he wondered why he came back at all.  He was chased around all game, but hung in enough to find Dwayne Bowe and newly signed Bobby Wade for 5-6 catches a piece.  Bowe is clearly the only player on this team worth starting right now.

Miami Dolphins - Monday night game.

Minnesota Vikings - Favre threw a lot more in week 2, but he's not going down the field at all.  It's hard to recommend anyone from this passing game right now until the bye weeks start, but expect Berrian to start to build chemistry with Favre as they get more time together.  Peterson posted another solid game despite limited carries.

New England Patriots -  Brady was on the run all game, and Moss was completely shut down.  Julian Edelman showed that he can step in and post Welker-like stats, although the Patriots definitely missed Welker's reliability in a game where the Jets blitzed relentlessly.  The backfield remains a mess.

New Orleans Saints - Drew Brees was a monster once again, this time with Colston dominating the targets.  Lance Moore left with a hamstring injury, so keep an eye on that.  His absence would mean good things for Jeremy Shockey, who wasn't as big of the game plan with the WRs constantly getting open.  Mike Bell again posted a solid game, although he left in the 2nd half with a knee sprain.  Pierre Thomas might get his job back in the same way it was threatened while he was out.

New York Giants - Eli looked good once again with his young WRs stepping up.  I think Eli is a borderline QB1 at this point.  Steve Smith and Mario Manningham both posted big games, and Manningham showed his explosiveness on several of his catches, including a circus-style one in the endzone.  While Nicks is out, it's clear these are the two starters and are WR3 plays.  Jacobs and Bradshaw mostly took a backseat as Dallas loaded up to stop the run, but don't worry about either.

New York Jets - Mark Sanchez looked great once again, showing good poise after starting the game off in a rough fashion.  Cotchery and Keller continue to dominate targets and are every week starters.  Thomas Jones had a rough game and actually split carries with Leon Washington evenly.  It's clear that Washington is going to be a drain on TJ's carries as he's no longer a workhorse.

Oakland Raiders - Russell looked horribly inaccurate once more and is arguably the worst QB in the NFL.  I apologize for suggesting Louis Murphy for a team that clearly cannot throw the ball down the field.  Zach Miller threw up a goose egg, but don't be down on him as he'll bounce back next week.  McFadden and Bush continue to split carries, and observers noted that McFadden continues to go down too easily.  McFadden did get the red zone carry and converted by bouncing it outside, but his inside running is what draws the ire of some scouts.  Expect this split to continue as Bush is much more adept at running inside.

Philadelphia Eagles - Kolb posted some huge numbers thanks to Philly being in throw-first mode most of the game, but his 3 turnovers certainly didn't adhere him to the coaching staff.  He did enough to start again next week, and he can be considered as a risk/reward QB1 next week for McNabb owners, depending on their QB2, against KC.  One has to wonder how often they'll throw the ball, however.  Westbrook and the rest of the running game where held in check touch-wise thanks to the rhythm of the game.

San Diego Chargers - Phillip Rivers lit up the Ravens secondary for 400+ yards as SD found themselves behind most of the game.  Sproles is clearly an explosive option as a receiving back, and Vincent Jackson might have overtaken Antonio Gates as the go-to receiver for this team.  Gates is still posting very good numbers, however.  The running game simply wasn't used much, and Rivers certainly benefited from the passing attempts.

San Francisco 49ers - Gore simply exploded with two 80ish yard TD runs, but he suffered a slightly sprained ankle at the end of the game that should be monitored.  The passing offense simply doesn't really exist right now, and none of them are worth talking about.  That being said, Morgan and Davis should continue to be stashed on benches as upside players.

Seattle Seahawks - Ugh, back to normal here.  Hasselbeck took a big shot and probably broke a rib, leaving his week 3 status in doubt.  Seneca Wallace came in and posted reasonable numbers, but the passing game just wasn't the same.  All receiving threats (Housh, Burleson, Carlson) posted nearly identical 4-6 catch, 40-60 yard performances that are pretty boring to most owners.  The running game was atrocious, and Justin Forsett looked much more explosive.  Julius Jones saved his owners with a 1 yard TD reception, but was utterly worthless for most of the game.  We'll see what type of split happens going forward...Seattle needs to get Forsett on the field more.

St. Louis Rams - Bulger still looks horrible, and it's killing the offense.  Laurent Robinson continues to impress regardless, and he's possibly a WR3 candidate as he's seemingly overtaken Donnie Avery as the primary WR while Avery recovers from his foot sprain and gets his timing back.  Steven Jackson is doing everything he can, but his teammates are letting him down once again.  Jason Brown and Jason Smith both suffered injuries, and that warrants monitoring as they mean a lot to Jackson.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Leftwich again posted good numbers, utilizing all of his weapons down the field to help move the ball.  Michael Clayton disappeared yet again, this time with Maurice Stovall stepping up.  Kellen Winslow remains the only every week starter on this passing offense, and Leftwich should clearly be owned as a QB2.  Cadillac Williams surprisingly got a lot of work in the passing game, catching 7 passes, including a TD.  The rushing attack was non-existent, as was Derrick Ward.  This committee remains very confusing, although I would favor Caddy as a RB2 at the moment if I had to choose.

Washington Redskins - The offense looked about as expected...mediocre...once again.  Portis continues to be a decent RB2, although if he's not scoring, he's not posting big numbers.  Chris Cooley is still the only receiver from this team that I'd start each week.  Santana Moss is best used as a match up WR3 until he proves otherwise.

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