Monday, October 12, 2009

Buy Low Candidates

I wanted to write this article last week, and I regret it as I wanted to highlight Roddy White as an excellent buy low heading into this past weekend.  Unfortunately I didn't get around to it, but now's not a bad time to go through everything.  After 4-5 weeks in, you start to realize the trends of the new season, but it's also a great time to capitalize on the mirages of slow starts.  I'm going to run through a couple guys, broken down by position, to go after in trade talks.  Now when I say buy low, I don't mean send an insulting low offer and try to get them for nothing.  Leagues vary with knowledge from league to league, and also from owner to owner within each league.  A buy low isn't always a player you can get on the cheap, but it's also a player that someone might be willing to trade after a couple cold games when in normal circumstances he wouldn't think of it.  I always suggest coming in a bit low to give yourself some wiggle room, but don't send offers that insult the other owner's intelligence.

QB:

Drew Brees - Brees is the perfect example of someone whom you might be able to land in a trade during a cold streak, when in normal circumstances his owner wouldn't think of trading him.  Coming off of 2 straight TD-less weeks, you might find someone who's a bit frustrated with his recent trends, plus another huge bonus is that he is done with his bye week.  You'll have to pay full price, most likely, but maybe his owner will consider it.

Tom Brady - Brady has certainly not lived up to the lofty preseason expectations, but he does figure to get better as the season moves along.  Outside of Phillip Rivers last year, almost every QB that suffers a torn ACL (McNabb and Palmer come to mind for recent examples) struggle during the 1st half, and then tend to turn it on during the 2nd half.  Brady should do the same, so see if you can pry him away for the stretch run.

Matt Cassel - Like I mentioned before, Cassel is playing well given his situation, but he's not doing much to help fantasy teams outside of last week.  There's no question owners who drafted him as a borderline QB1 are very down on him so far, so he's a cheaper alternative if you don't have the firepower to land Brees or Brady.  The running attack is simply not working for KC, so KC is going to throw it a lot.  He's someone who can be a serviceable QB1 starter thanks to volume throwing, and he's someone you can get for cheap.  His receivers limit his upside, but he'll get better know that he's a few weeks removed from his knee surgery and is getting to know his offensive system better.

RB:

Matt Forte - Perhaps the bye week will be the time necessary for his owners to get over his solid week 4, and if not, you could try to play up the fact he's not doing much with his touches on the season.  I can only imagine things will get better for Forte as the season progresses and the offense falls into its true identity.  He's playing way below his talent level, and while the offensive line isn't built to move people off the ball, Cutler will keep extra defenders out of the box, opening up more running lanes for Forte.  He should be a reliable RB1 the rest of the way, but he won't come close to his receptions from last year due to Cutler's willingness to throw down the field.

Frank Gore - His ideal buy-low time would have been right after his injury since it was initially reported as a 2 week injury, but now is a good time to inquire.  He's the centerpiece of a run-first offense, and while there's some risk here as he's had ankle injuries before, he's always been productive on the field, and the bye week should get him close to 100%.  His owner will probably hang on, but you could try to offer a lesser RB and some of your depth to fill one of his lineup weaknesses.

Marion Barber - Barber has been suffering through a quad injury sustained three weeks ago, and it has impacted his performance over the past two.  Owners might be getting frustrated, but he is still the centerpiece of this offense, and the bye week should fix his leg.  He's going to score plenty when he gets healthy.  Try to see if you can land him, especially if you have RB depth and the Barber owner is struggling through his bye week.

WR:

Randy Moss - I will suggest Moss for the exact same reasons as Brady above.  As Brady gets better, Moss will get better.  Perhaps you can get in before he inevitably has a true breakthrough game.

Greg Jennings - Jennings is my best buy low guy here.  He has been hampered a bit by a minor wrist injury, and he's also been held back by the lack of protection for Aaron Rodgers...Rodgers hasn't had the time to get it to him down the field.  Outside of a strong week 1, he's been very inconsistent with his targets and his production.  With Chad Clifton returning and the re-signing of Mark Tauscher, Rodgers' protection is going to improve.  Another bonus is that his bye week is now past him.  Try your best to land him.

Dwayne Bowe - Bowe has struggled out of the gates, and he can only go as far as Cassel will allow him to.  Cassel has suffered from even worse protection than Rodgers and has been abysmal so far, but he's slowly coming around, and KC's schedule lightens up.  Bowe, unlike Jennings above, isn't reliant on the deep ball to post great numbers as he's more like Anquan Boldin.  Now Bowe has scored 3 times, which hurts his buy low ability, but his yardage has remained very low.  See if you can land him as he has the ability to post low end WR1 numbers.

Eddie Royal - This is a very cautious recommendation, but for the price he'll likely command, it's worth a WR3 shot.  He finally posted a solid week 5 after 4 weeks of barf, and the coaching staff indicated that his solid performance was more of a reaction to the game than a preconceived effort to get him the ball, but this is a minor move you could make for your bench with the ability to get back to an every week starter.

Anthony Gonzalez - He's due back after the bye week, and despite the contributions of Garcon and Collie in his absence, Gonzalez should move right back into the middle of a passing attack that is on fire.  His bye week is coming up, and then he is on schedule to return after that in week 7.  He'd have the ability to post WR2 numbers in the 2nd half for what could be a fraction of the price.

TE:

Greg Olsen - Olsen has obviously struggled out of the gate after big preseason expectations, but you can bet the Bears worked on ways to get him the football during their bye week.  Olsen still has a chance to lead this team in receiving, especially from here on out.  He's a great talent, and he has a QB who has found his groove since week 1.  Expect increased production moving forward, and see if you can land him on the cheap.

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