The Sad Truth

I decided I wanted to write a small article called The Sad Truth this week.  One of the toughest things to do in fantasy football is swallow your pride and adjust the value of some of your players...downward.  Now that we are 6 weeks into the season, simple 1-2 week worries have emerged as true downward trends, and we must act accordingly in both our lineups and in our trade demands.  As I do with everything, I'm going to break it down by position and highlight the players that we drafted high, but are simply not the player that we thought we drafted.

QB:


Tony Romo - Romo had great weeks against poor defenses in weeks 1 and 5, but was horrible in the other three weeks.  The reason behind this is his weapons...the best talent on this team is at the RB position.  Jason Witten still remains an excellent TE, but losing Owens has really hurt this team.  Roy Williams hasn't looked any better this season, and nobody else stepped up until week 5.  Miles Austin provides some hope for Romo moving ahead, but as it stands right now, Romo is best used as a match up QB1 until he proves that he can post a good game against a good defense.

Kurt Warner - Thanks to a slow recovery to his offseason hip surgery, Warner is currently ranked as the 14th best QB in terms of FPPG (fantasy points per game).  He is simply not healthy enough to have the same velocity and distance on his throws, and his lack of big plays are a direct result of that.  As such, his fantasy value has plummeted.  His owners can hope that his hip feels better come stretch time, but odds are what you're seeing is what you'll get from him.

Matt Cassel - There's no secret as to why Cassel has not played well...his surrounding offensive situation is as bad as it gets in the NFL.  I do forsee some improvement in the 2nd half, and his 7:2 TD:INT is promising, but he will continue to be limited by his situation.  He can be a match up QB1, but nothing more.

Carson Palmer - Much to my dismay, Carson Palmer has not lived up to expectations.  Despite being taken on the fringe of a QB1, He's the 20th best QB in FPPG.  His offensive line was considered a weakness heading into the season, but he's only been sacked 11 times in 6 games.  I actually think part of the problem is the running game...Cedric Benson has been so good that they haven't felt the need to throw, and I bet very few people saw that coming.  Chad Ochocinco has bounced back and looks great, but Chris Henry has battled nagging injuries, and Coles has looked horrible.  Andre Caldwell has been solid, but he's not a game breaker.  The thing that gives me hope is that Palmer missed so much of last year and most of the preseason, so some rust should have been expected.

RB:

Michael Turner - Turner has not shown the same burst as last season, and he's only had 1 game with a YPC above 4.0.  Thanks to the surrounding offense, Turner has scored enough TDs to maintain solid fantasy value, but his YPC has crashed and I don't see this magically turning itself around.  If someone is willing to give top 5 value for him, do it.

Matt Forte - Forte also hasn't shown the same burst as last season, but his offensive line has been a major problem as well.  I imagine Forte is among the league leaders in being hit behind the line of scrimmage, and he's not a special enough RB to overcome that situation.  Few are.  His workload keeps his value reasonable, but he's seeing less receptions, and most importantly, he's struggling at the goal line.  He's going to be solid over the rest of the season, but he's not returning to elite.

Steven Jackson - Jackson has actually been pretty amazing given what's he's accomplished so far with his putrid surrounding offensive situation, but he hasn't scored yet, and that is murdering his fantasy value.  Much like Forte, his workload (and pure determination) keeps him valuable, but he's more of a RB2 until STL can get him on the goal line more often.

DeAngelo Williams - His value shot up in the last week or two before drafts thanks to Jonathan Stewart's lingering achillies problem, but after barely doing anything all offseason, Stewart went right back to his same role as last season.  Williams still looks good more often than not, but thanks to the struggles of the passing game and the presence of a healthy Stewart, his value is limited to a match up RB2...a far cry from his RB1 draft day value.

LaDainian Tomlinson - Disappointing RB #5 from this year's first round.  LT started off with a solid first performance, got hurt mid-game, and has barely done anything since.  He's 30, injury prone, lost several steps, and is replaced on 3rd downs and in the 2 minute drill.  Age has simply caught up to one of the NFL's best RBs in history.

Brian Westbrook - He's been serviceable when he's played, but he's been hurt more often than not, and it's clear that he's a part of a committee with LeSean McCoy moving forward.  His body is breaking down on him as he ages, and he's no longer the centerpiece of the Eagles offense.  He's a RB2 when he plays, but that's it.

Brandon Jacobs - For reasons completely unknown to anyone except maybe the Giants staff, Jacobs has NOT been the same RB this year.  There's nothing wrong with his team as Eli and his young WRs have taken a huge step forward this year, and Ahmad Bradshaw is running just fine behind the same line Jacobs.  He's admitted to a bit of a "knee thing" a few weeks ago, and it would not surprise me if he's hiding an injury.  As has become common on this list, his workload keeps him valuable, but he needs to start scoring more.

Clinton Portis - Portis has shown a few glimmers of hope on his runs, but he's mostly looked a step slow, and he's getting zero help from his surrounding offense.  He might have been drafted as a RB1 by owners who went QB or WR in the 1st round, and he's hardly lived up to that billing.  Portis is nearing the end, and his owners need to sell high while they can.

WR:

Calvin Johnson - He was actually building some momentum with Matthew Stafford, but then Stafford got hurt, and so did he.  The bye week should fix what ails him, but Stafford's season is in question until we know more about exactly what's wrong with his knee.  He does the best he can, but he's clearly limited by the current state of his offense.

Steve Smith - Much like a RB with the same first name, Smith is also looking for his first TD of the year.  Delhomme has looked bad, and he's getting zero help from the receiving "threats" that line up opposite him.  A regressing QB, regressing offense, and no help have meant constant double teams, and there's no end in sight.

Anquan Boldin - He's posted fairly solid numbers in the games he's played, but he's been limited by his usual array of nagging injuries.  He simply cannot shake the injury bug, and it's had a big effect on his game thus far this season.  With Warner not looking the same and apparently another injury added onto his current ailments, Boldin is not going to live up to his draft value.

Terrell Owens - It's hard to tell if his age is catching up to him since he never gets the ball.  The Bills simply don't have the coaching staff or the quarterback to make use of Owens and Evans, and Owens is nothing more than a possible WR3 option this year.  Owners have to pray that a miraculous trade gets him out of Buffalo, but that seems highly unlikely.

Antonio Bryant - His offseason knee surgery combined with poor quarterback play are to blame.  All the warning signs were there before the season started, and unfortunately for those who still drafted him, they've all proven to be true.  He's a match up WR3 at best right now.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh - He's had a 100 yard game and a 2 TD game so far, but 3 other games where he hasn't done much.  Their offensive line is the root of the problem, and that's not going away.  He's a solid WR3, but that's not what he was drafted to be.

Roy Williams - Outside of week 1, he's done almost nothing.  He was expected to replace T.O., and he hasn't come close to doing it.  Furthermore, Miles Austin might just be more talented than Williams is, and he's going to lose even more targets to Austin if he emerges.  He's not even a WR3 right now.

Eddie Royal - Heading into the season, Royal was expected to man the slot and play the Wes Welker role in this offense.  Instead, Royal has lined up wide and gone deep a lot.  While Royal undoubtedly has deep speed, he doesn't have the size to be a consistent deep threat, and with Marshall around, he's not going to score many TDs.  Week 5 provided some hope, but he's going to need to really break out to make it past being a possible WR3.

TE:

Jason Witten - Romo's struggles have hurt Witten, and Owens leaving has allowed defenses to play up closer and pay a lot more attention to the Cowboys' best receiving threat.  As mentioned above, if Miles Austin can emerge, it will give Witten more room to work with over the middle.  He does have some hope, but he's not going to re-emerge as the top TE in fantasy football.

Greg Olsen - After an offseason of hype, defenses were ready and Olsen has been doubled relentlessly.  Moving forward, Cutler is showing improved chemistry with Devin Hester, Earl Bennett, and Johnny Knox, so hopefully their work outside will give Olsen more room to work over the middle.  Also, the lack of a running game is hurting their play action, and those plays are often beneficial to getting the TE open.  He'll improve, but he's not taking that huge leap that many expected.