Week 13 Thoughts

OK, so now that I'm working again, I need to write my injury entries on Thursday night again.  I can't do them during the day at work, and I'm usually not around on Friday nights.  I'll post a full injury report this Thursday.


Arizona Cardinals - Kurt Warner returned, and so did the explosive Cardinals offense.  Warner looked great, using Fitzgerald and Boldin all over the field in the big upset over the Vikings.  The rushing attack predictably took a back seat against the Williams Wall, and while Wells was given twice as many carries, he did about half as much with them.  Neither guy is a RB2, although Wells can be considered one against weak opponents.  This week against SF does not qualify.

Atlanta Falcons - The offense was an absolute mess against the Eagles, but luckily Redman allowed both White and Gonzalez to dominate targets.  Expect the Falcons offense to continue struggling should Ryan and Turner miss another week, but White and Gonzalez are still worth starting as usual.

Baltimore Ravens - Flacco was smothered by GB's excellent secondary as his receivers simply could not get open consistently, and he was under constant pressure.  Ray Rice was also contained quite well as the offense struggled in all aspects.  The Ravens' passing game has been struggling for a while, and the Packers were able to solely focus on Rice while their secondary did the rest of the work.  Rice is really the only guy I'd feel comfortable starting each week, but Mason is a reasonable WR3.

Buffalo Bills - Thud.  Shitzpatrick returned, although it was against a top notch Jets secondary.  Evans oddly wasn't targeted very much after an early 38 yard bomb, and Fitzpatrick forced the ball to Owens, which was a horrible game plan as Darrell Revis dominated the aging Owens for the majority of the evening.  Jackson was the primary ball carrier, but a motivated Lynch looked great on a TD drive that he anchored.  Expect Jackson to continue leading the carries, and don't be afraid to use him versus KC.

Carolina Panthers - Delhomme and Williams both missed this game, and while the passing attack remained very ugly behind Matt Moore, Jonathan Stewart looked awesome in his first chance as the primary ball carrier.  It almost goes without saying, but if Williams were to miss week 14, Stewart would be an excellent RB2.  Steve Smith is nothing more than a WR3 moving forward thanks to the passing situation.

Cincinnati Bengals - Palmer is just simply not what I thought he'd be fantasy-wise as he's been killed by his supporting cast.  Heading into a dream trio of match-ups against Oakland, Cleveland, and Detroit, Palmer averaged less than 200 yards passing with 2 TDs against 3 INTs.  2 lucky rushing TDs saved his match-up against Oakland.  As odd as it is to say, but Cincy misses Chris Henry.  Ochocinco is the only reliable receiver Palmer has, and his stats have suffered accordingly.  Benson, on the other hand, looked great in his return and will resume RB1 status moving forward.

Chicago Bears - Continued stench part 2.  Cutler's protection is poor, his receiving talent is below average, and he just isn't performing well.  Matt Forte had his best game of the season, and thanks to his workload, he's still an every week RB2.  Olsen can be used as a TE1, but he carries obvious risk.

Cleveland Browns - Brady Quinn, *gasp*, looks good.  He's doing quite well considering his lack of receiving talent, and Jerome Harrison looked good after getting out of the doghouse again.  Unfortunately, with Pittsburgh up next, all bets are off in regards to expected production.

Dallas Cowboys - Romo continues to throw the ball all over the field thanks to the emergence of Miles Austin, and Roy Williams again made use of all the defensive coverage that Austin receives.  Witten has also re-emerged as a stud.  The rushing attack is essentially dead.  I have stubbornly supported Marion Barber, but he's simply killing his fantasy owners.  Despite his scoring potential, he's not cashing in.

Denver Broncos - Denver projected as being pass-heavy again this year despite the switch from Cutler to Orton, but the emergence of Knowshon Moreno and the impressive play of Correll Buckhalter has actually transitioned the Broncos into a run-first team.  Orton is nothing more than a QB2 as a player who doesn't take shots, but he makes plenty good use of Marshall.  Moreno has also been a great RB2.

Detroit Lions - Stafford predictably struggled against a tough Bengals D, tossing 2 more INTs, but he also made a beautiful throw on a TD bomb to Calvin Johnson, which pretty much sums up how he looks most week.  He makes a good number of mistakes, but he's also made some great plays.  CJ continues to be a good play with Stafford behind center, but if he can't continue playing through his shoulder injury, CJ will be a weaker play with Culpepper behind center.  Kevin Smith looked quite good and remains a solid RB2.

Green Bay Packers - Rodgers continues to battle Brees for the best fantasy QB in 2009.  Driver scored again, and Jermichael Finley made a couple big plays.  Rodgers has no problem spreading the ball around, but if you have a struggling TE like Olsen or Shockey, Finley makes for a fine play moving forward.  Grant struggled against the vicious Baltimore run defense, but he makes a solid RB2 most weeks.

Houston Texans - Hopefully Schaub doesn't miss any time because Grossman would really hurt AJ's value if he were forced into significant action.  Given Schaub returned, he should be fine for next week.  Walter continues to post low end WR3 numbers, but unfortunately he hasn't returned to the form he showed last season.  The rushing attack is worthless for fantasy purposes.

Indianapolis Colts - The Colts offense is still cruising, although it appears as though the defensive attention that Reggie Wayne receives is affecting his production recently.  He's been quiet since the New England game while Pierre Garcon has racked up the yardage.  Joseph Addai continues to post great numbers when Donald Brown doesn't play, so hopefully he takes another game or 3 off for his owners.

Jacksonville Jaguars - MJD was stuffed twice at the 1 yard line, which limited his fantasy production and took some wind out of the Jags' offense sails for a bit.  Houston has been rather stingy against RBs, so his sub-par game isn't too far out of line.  Sims-Walker has not done too well with the added defensive attention, but remains a solid WR3 moving forward.

Kansas City Chiefs - The only guy worth talking about here is Jamaal Charles, who continues to impress.  With Kolby Smith out of the picture, he is the favorite for all RB duties and a great RB2 against Buffalo this week.

Miami Dolphins - Henne posted the best game of his young career, and Davone Bess turned into a great game as a result.  Don't get too excited here, but Jacksonville presents another great match-up for both.  Ricky Williams was against productive with his touches, but he couldn't fine the end zone in this one as New England did all it could to limit him.

Minnesota Vikings - Favre finally had one of his patented games where seemingly half of his passes generated a dry heave from his fans.  Peterson was also completely shut down as Minnesota seemingly went with the wrong game plan here.  They need to re-establish AP as the focal point next week.

New England Patriots - Brady posted more monster numbers, but again couldn't lead his team to victory.  Moss and Welker followed suit, both posting great games again.  Maroney struggled against the stout NE defense, and he'll have competition for carries moving forward.  Considering he doesn't normally rack up yardage, he's a risky RB2 down the stretch.

New Orleans Saints - Brees, with the help of a horrible shanked FG from now unemployed Shaun Suisham, kept the Saints undefeated with a ridiculous comeback.  All the usual suspects played a role, and one way or another, Pierre Thomas continues to produce like a RB2.

New York Giants - Eli didn't look that great, but he helped lead the Giants to a big win.  I probably sound like a broken record, but Nicks continues to outperform Manningham on game days, but they still split time.  As such, both are very risky WR3s.  Steve Smith posted his best yardage game in a while, and he also left some yards out on the field with a couple drops as well.  Jacobs posted his best fantasy day of the season, but he continues to post sub-par games on the ground.  Still, he's a RB2.  Bradshaw cut back into his carries again, and he looked explosive once more.  He's not a fantasy option, but he's worth stashing again should something happen to Jacobs.

New York Jets - Sanchez had ups and downs per usual.  He missed a wide-open Cotchery in the end zone, then he had a beautifully thrown bomb bounce off of Edwards' face.  Yes, his face.  Cotchery is a reliable WR3 each week, but Edwards has become a lost cause again.  Thomas Jones continues to dominate carries, and he has a great schedule to end the season.  He's a RB1.

Oakland Raiders - Where the hell did this come from?  Gradkowski has this team believing it can win games, and Louis Murphy posted a monster performance.  This isn't a recipe for fantasy success moving forward, especially since the only reason Murphy started was because DHB got hurt.  You can ignore this team for your playoff run.

Philadelphia Eagles - McNabb had a couple TDs vultured by Vick goal line package plays, one on a run and one on a pass.  This is a ridiculous way to treat a star QB, but this is nothing new in Philly, especially since Reid's decisions were vindicated by successful TDs.  McCoy had an awful game.  With Westbrook still out, he's a reasonable RB2 despite this performance, but Weaver is cutting into his touches with his continued solid play.  He carries risk moving forward.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Big Ben returned...and lost to the Raiders.  Big Ben looked sharp and Mendenhall posted a great game as well, but their secondary failed them in a big way.  Cleveland's horrendous defense is up next.

San Diego Chargers - Business as usual, but Vincent Jackson's disappearance is puzzling and hurting all of his fantasy owners.  Gates has been dominating targets, and Rivers has been missing Jackson when he's getting open deep.  Hopefully he'll return to dominance this week.  Tomlinson continues to not rack up much yardage, but score.  His owners will take it.

San Francisco 49ers - Alex Smith posted another great game, once again utilizing the freakishly good Vernon Davis as his primary target.  Crabtree remains a solid WR3 thanks to their new pass-first philosophy.  Frank Gore owners, on the other hand, can't like this accommodation to a QB who can't use proper footwork while their 1st round pick (and best offensive player on his team) is forced to compensate.  Expect Gore to bounce back.

Seattle Seahawks - Hasselbeck continues to disappoint, and unfortunately Forsett's injury allowed Julius Jones to return to his unproductive role as the lead back.  Burleson remains the only safe play on this team.

St. Louis Rams - Steven Jackson again cranked out another big yardage game, but didn't find paydirt this time.  Not much else to say here.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Josh Freeman hit a wall with a sweet 0 TD, 5 INT performance against Carolina, although keep in mind that despite Carolina's ravaged run defense, their secondary remains strong.  The best news is that Bryant has re-emerged as a WR3 as he finally looks healthy, and Winslow is still obviously worth using as a TE1.

Tennessee Titans - Well, the Titans got beat by one of the best teams in football, but Young posted another good fantasy performance.  He's a QB1 down the stretch, crazily enough, with a great schedule.  Chris Johnson posts 100 yard games like it's his job, but unfortunately White replaced him again at the goal line (and didn't convert).  Much like Ray Rice, who knows what will happen on their next goal line opportunity.

Washington Redskins - It's time to take notice of Jason Campbell's recent mini hot streak.  With Portis and Betts both out, the Redskins have put the offense in Jason Campbell's hands, and he's mostly come through the last two weeks.  He pretty much led the Skins to an upset victory until Suisham missed a 23 yard FG to clinch the game.  He's got Oakland next, so if you have someone like Palmer, it wouldn't be crazy to give Campbell a shot.  Moss is a WR3 for now, and Devin Thomas post a breakout game.  The problem with all these guys is obvious...with such a small sample size, there's a ton of risk involved in using Campbell or Thomas when it matters most, and odds are if you're still in it, you wouldn't need them.