2010 TE1 Value Analysis

1) Antonio Gates

ADP: 46.4 (4th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Gates returned to fantasy prominence last year after his 2008 season was ruined by nagging injuries.  Gates proved that when he's healthy, he is still among the elite at his position.  As I've detailed with both Phillip Rivers and Vincent Jackson, there's a potentially serious problem for this offense.  Vincent Jackson is suspended for 3 games, and there isn't much WR depth on this team after him.  Gates will be targeted plenty while VJax is out, but he'll also be the defense's sole focus for the Chargers' passing game.  Plus, 3 games is the minimum amount of games that Jackson will miss as several outlets fear that his holdout is for real.  I think Gates has some serious risks this season, and there's no point in taking him as the first TE in a draft so deep at the position.

2) Dallas Clark

ADP: 48.8 (5th round, 1st pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Dallas Clark is an excellent fantasy TE when he's healthy, and he's been healthy for the past 3 seasons, which has seen him make sizeable receiving yardage increases in each of those 3 seasons.  He topped out at an incredible 1,106 yards last season, but beware.  He posted 60 catches for 703 yards in the 1st half while the Colts struggled to find consistency outside of Wayne and Clark last season, but once Garcon and Collie emerged, Clark's production fell to 40 catches for 403 yards in the 2nd half.  I think his 2nd half production is closer to what we should expect in 2010 thanks to the fact the Colts have more weapons, and we know Manning will not lock onto targets over the course of a season.  Clark will remain a red-zone threat and post good yardage, but as the 2nd TE picked, I'd pass at this price as his ADP is based off of last year's misleading production.

3) Vernon Davis
ADP: 55.1 (5th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Vernon Davis finally matched his immense talent with production last season, and he was easily the fantasy MVP at the TE position with his low ADP.  He won't catch anyone by surprise this season, but thankfully for him, Frank Gore and Michael Crabtree will give defenses plenty to think about. Vernon Davis will probably lose a few TDs this season, the balanced offense will allow him to avoid too much extra defensive attention.  I think last season is a solid baseline for his production, but with a couple less TDs.

4) Jermichael Finley

ADP: 59.8 (5th round, 12th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: There aren't too many TEs picked in the top 5 coming off of a 676 yard, 5 TD season, but there's plenty of reason to be excited about Finley this season.  He accomplished this while battling an annoying knee injury for most of the season, he's going to start at TE after not doing so for part of last season, he posted a monster 6/159 line in his only playoff game, and he's playing for an explosive passing offense.  There's been positive feedback this offseason about Finley staying dedicated to improving, so that's comforting after problems with that in the past.  He's also the team's best red zone weapon with his tremendous size and leaping ability from the TE position.  He has monster upside, and he's a great 5th round pick.

5) Jason Witten
ADP: 62.4 (6th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Witten struggled a bit in the 2nd half of 2008 and the first half of 2009, but he really took off during the 2nd half of last season, posting 639 yards.  The disappointing part of his season came in the TD department where he crashed to 2 TDs.  While he should improve on that total in 2009, unfortunately the addition of Dez Bryant gives the Dallas offense another mouth to feed, and Witten has never been a huge part of the red zone offense.  I think you can expect Witten's yardage to decrease some with Bryant's arrival, and I don't expect a big bounce back in TDs either, so I think Witten will be slightly disappointing this season.

6) Tony Gonzalez

ADP: 68.0 (6th round, 8th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Gonzalez posted reliable stats last season during his first year in Atlanta, but his yardage total shrunk to it's worst total since 2002.  Atlanta will return its offense intact, and they do figure to pass more in 2010 as Matt Ryan continues to mature and take on more responsibility.  With Gonzalez starting to age, I think he'll remain reliable, but he'll probably post similar stats this season, so you're paying for consistency.  There are more exciting options later in the draft that come at a cheaper cost.

7) Brent Celek

ADP: 70.1 (6th round, 10th pick)

Value: Slightly Undervalued

Overview: Celek created some buzz during the 2008 playoffs, but few too many people too notice, and he was one of my favorite TE sleepers last season.  Celek completely delivered last season, posting almost 1,000 yards with 8 TDs.  McNabb is now gone, but Celek and Kolb are very close friends, and Celek posted 2/3 100 yard games when Kolb started last season.  I think he'll again post similar numbers, and I'd much rather take him than Witten and Gonzalez at the relatively same price tag.

8) Owen Daniels
ADP: 88.6 (8th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: What a shame.  Owen Daniels was the #1 TE in fantasy football prior to a torn ACL that knocked him out for the season in week 8.  Houston returns essentially the same offense, so Daniels should remain an integral part of their attack by working the middle of the field and occasionally going deep.  Keep a close eye on him in the preseason.  His health is the only thing standing in his way of providing top 5 value at a slight discount, but the uncertainty of his recovery obviously plays a role.  Keep a close eye on how he looks this preseason, but I think a slow start will prevent him from being a bargain.  Honestly, I'd rather pass.

9) Visanthe Shiancoe
ADP: 100.5 (9th round, 4th pick)
Value: Overvalued

Overview: This one is simple.  Shiancoe's value is strictly tied to his TDs, and TDs can be flaky from year to year.  I don't doubt that Shiancoe will remain a valuable red zone threat for Favre and the Vikings this year, but I'd far prefer to draft someone who is posting more reliable yardage totals, and thus more reliable fantasy numbers.

10) Zach Miller

ADP: 108.5 (9th round, 12th pick)

Value: Slightly Undervalued

Overview: Miller is my favorite TE value this season.  This guy has nearly posted back-to-back 800 yard seasons with an absolute mess at QB, but the Raiders have dumped Jamarcus Russell and traded for Jason Campbell.  Campbell is hardly an elite QB talent, but he's a good leader, a solid passer, and he likes throwing to his TEs.  The Raiders offense will improve this year, and their WRs are not going to dominate targets.  I think Miller's baseline is Chris Cooley during his better years, which is in the mid-800s for yardage, and probably 5-6 TDs, and he has a bit of upside on that as well given he almost got there with terrible QB play.  Go get him.

11) Kellen Winslow
ADP: 110.5 (10th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued

Overview: Winslow continues to battle knee problems, but he's been, to use his words, a soldier while playing 16 games in 3 of the last 4 season.  Tampa has finally found a solid young QB in Josh Freeman, and their additions of Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams has injected exciting talent into their passing attack.  Winslow has a good chance of leading his team in receptions again as their veteran go-to receiver, and while his knees always make him a risky choice, he's a good value at this price.

12) Chris Cooley

ADP: 111.4 (10th round, 3rd pick)

Value: Undervalued

Overview: Cooley was on pace to post his usual reliable stats last season, but unfortunately a torn ACL wrecked his season as well.  The good news is that the Redskins upgraded at head coach with Mike Shanahan and at QB with Donovan McNabb.  Shanahan has always utilized his TEs quite often in his offense (Shannon Sharpe, Tony Scheffler), and McNabb has always consistently thrown to his TEs.  The bad news is that Fred Davis made an impact on the passing game with Cooley out last season, so he'll have some competition for snaps.  Ultimately I find it hard to believe that Cooley will have his starting job taken from him, and Shanahan also used a lot of 2 TE sets.  He's a bit of a risk coming off of a torn ACL and having a bit of competition for his job, so you should back him up with another TE, but he does have upside.  Keep a close eye on him during the preseason.

Update: Cooley is becoming McNabb's go-to target for this team, and with Moss keeping defenses honest down the field, Cooley will have plenty of room to work underneath.  Fred Davis might scare some people, but Cooley has re-emerged as the unquestioned starting TE.  He's a great value.

TE1 Thoughts: There is a lot of depth this year, and I will have no problem waiting until the first 2 waves of TEs are gone before taking two, probably in the 9th round or later.  I would feel more comfortable doubling up on TEs in rounds 9 and 10 (or later) than using a 4th-6th round pick to land one of the early ones.  I feel there's too much value at the position this year, and I'd rather use my earlier picks on more important positions.