Falcons Hire Bobby Petrino

A day late, but who's counting. Boring sports news day. The Randy Johnson trade was made official, practice reports were released for the NFL teams still alive in the playoffs, and the coaching carosel is in full motion. The biggest story of the NFL coaching changes over the past few days was Bobby Petrino leaving Louisville for the Atlanta Falcons.

Petrino's decision has already persuaded Michael Bush to leave early. Bush missed his entire senior season after suffering a broken leg in the first game, and I believe the NCAA would have granted him an extra year of eligibility had he decided to come back. Bush had an outstanding 2005 season rushing for 1,143 yards and 23 TDs. There will be a lot of pressure on him to perform highly at the NFL Combine and at his Louisville Pro Day, and if he's not fully recovered by then or doesn't have a strong workout, he could find himself falling much farther than he hopes in the NFL draft. Scouts last saw him a year ago, so his situation isn't like McGahee's in 2003, when McGahee was still picked in the high 2nd round because the only things he missed were the NFL Combine and the Miami Pro Day. Bush's return wouldn't be without risk, however, with his former coach leaving and his QB presumably leaving as well. His offensive upside would be limited by a new system and a new QB. His talent is undeniable, however, and I'm sure the new coach would build the offense in 2007 around him. He'd be able to re-establish himself and take the pressure off his performances at the NFL Combine and Pro Day. At any rate, it was a tough decision for him either way, but he'll hope his 2005 season remains fresh in the scouts' minds and follows that up with impressive workouts.

The sports world seems to think Brian Brohm will follow suit, but he's a different story. It makes the most sense for Brohm coming off a solid season and a big bowl win. He'd have to learn a whole new offensive system, and who knows how well he would adapt to it. It's too risky for him to chance the learning curve getting him off to a slow start and potentially a slow finish, especially given Petrino's history of high scoring offenses. He'll probably enter the combine as a low 1st round/2nd round grade and have a chance to move himself up with a solid workout.

Petrino's ascension to the head coach of the Falcons is most interesting for Michael Vick. Petrino, as I mentioned before, has a history of high octane offenses and is an innovatinve offensive mind. He'll bring Vick just what he needs in terms of an offensive minded-coach, and it will be interesting to see who he hires to help run the offense and who will coach the QBs. This will likely be Vick's last coach in Atlanta, so he'll have to finally capitalize on his tremendous physical potential. It remains to be seen if Petrino's offense will be successful on the pro level, and he'll probably start by adding some talent to the WR position via the free agent market. Unfortunately for Atlanta, the free agent WR market is a bit weak. Drew Bennett and Kevin Curtis are likely the two best WRs that will be available. Bennett has talent, but is an injury risk. His height and ability to stretch the field would combine well with Vick's big arm if Bennett could stay healthy. I don't see Curtis being a fit here. He's a smallish WR with great speed, and I don't think he'd fit the type of WR Vick would have success with. Their best bet might be to work a trade with Oakland for Randy Moss. The egos of Vick and Moss might be a problem, but there isn't a better fit for what Vick does well than Randy Moss. Moss has experience working with a mobile QB when he played with Culpepper in Minnesota, so he knows how to get open when the QB starts to scramble. His height and speed would be ideal, but it remains to be seen if Atlanta will pursue Moss.

Fantasy Impact: Michael Bush is someone to keep an eye on. He has great size and is fast for his frame. He'll grab a roll similar to Brandon Jacobs at worst, and could start from week 1. He's been compared to a younger Jamal Lewis, and if he lands (and starts) in the right system he could provide RB2 value at a discounted price

Brian Brohm is a developmental QB in terms of fantasy and won't be touched except for dynasty leagues.

Michael Vick will be a bit risky as he'll be adjusting to a new offensive system, but if Petrino can adapt his offense to the pros, Vick could be quite an asset. If Atlanta can add WR talent, it would maximize his 2007 value. I still see him as a lesser QB1 and an outstanding QB2 if their offensive roster stays the same.