Sunday, March 11, 2007

Baltimore Trades For Willis McGahee

This may be a curious move to some from Buffalo's point of view, but let me explain this from both sides. From Baltimore's side, it was obvious over the past two seasons that Jamal Lewis has lost it. Their defense is ready to win now, as is McNair, so they needed a young, powerful running attack to complete their team and give them a chance to reach the Super Bowl next year. McGahee gives them exactly that, and while he's disappointed the past two seasons, he hasn't lost his talent. He's been mired in a horrible offensive situation the past two seasons, running behind one of the worst offensive lines in football combined with a very erratic, mostly ineffective passing attack. He had a monster senior year at Miami before tearing up his knee, and then he turned in a huge 2004 season after recovering from that knee injury and taking over for Travis Henry. Once Bledsoe left, who helped McGahee out a lot in 2004, Buffalo was without a QB ready to play at the NFL level, and the offense took a sharp decline.

Given that McGahee was not effective the past two seasons and still wanted a huge pay raise, Buffalo was not willing to commit that sort of money to him. Knowing he was frustrated with the situation the past couple of seasons, they understood they'd lose him for nothing after this season, so they decided to get something for him. A 3rd round pick might not seem like much, but all 1st day picks in the NFL draft have value and Buffalo got two of them over the next two years in return for him, plus a 7th this season. They did well here, but they're left without an impact starting RB on the roster. Last seasons' backup/starter fill-in, Anthony Thomas, has re-signed with the team, but he's only a situational RB. Chris Brown remains the only capable free agent RB of making an impact, but he has already visited Buffalo and left without a contract.

Fantasy Impact: Oddly enough, Willis McGahee *might* be undervalued in drafts next season. After 2 straight seasons of being a fantasy bust, some owners might shy away from him. While he doesn't have great pass catching skills, he still possesses a great size/speed combination. He will be running behind the best offensive line and playing in the best surrounding offensive situation of his career. The Baltimore offense, while not potent, should be able to move the ball effectively, and they will give McGahee plenty of touches. He's worthy of a late 1st round selection as a RB1, and I'd consider him a steal if he slipped to the 2nd round. Given the uncertainty at the RB position and his lock on the job, I'd be surprised if he made it out of the 1st round though.

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