Sunday, March 11, 2007

Free Agency In Full Force, Part 2

Here's the 2nd round of free agency deals:

Oakland Signs Dominic Rhodes

I think it's too soon to understand the impact of this situation, but I also think LaMont Jordan is still the most talenteded RB on this roster, and he will be given the chance to maintain his starting job. Rhodes was mostly unimpressive last year, but closed strong in a contract push during the playoffs. He's really not much more than a situational/backup RB, and given that he doesn't possess a skill set much different from Jordan, it appears that he was signed to be the backup RB. However, he was given too much money to completely ignore. Justin Fargas has not impressed during his starting chances, so they needed additional depth. Fargas is definitely the fastest RB on the roster, so he'll probably have a chance to be the change-of-pace back. He also has a history with current coach Steve Sarksian when he played at USC, so he can't be ignored either as long as he remains on the roster. This signing is better for Jordan's fantasy value than Oakland addressing the RB position in the draft, but he still remains a better bet as an RB3 with RB2 upside given the currently muddled situation rather than an RB2. It'll definitely be worth monitoring the situation in the offseason to see how this all pans out given Oakland now has 3 RBs vying for playing time on a brand new coaching staff.

Indianapolis Fallout - Joseph Addai is now the unquestioned starter for the Colts, and given the high octane offense that he plays on, he'll be flirting with RB1 status come your draft next season. He'll probably be the one of the better RB1 values on draft day and worth persuing in later on in the 1st round.

Cleveland Signs Jamal Lewis

Jamal Lewis found the only place that wanted him where he'll have a chance to see a significant amount of carries. I still expect the Browns to select Adrian Peterson, but given Crennel is on the hotseat and is expected to start winning now, it's possible the Browns wanted to get a starting RB via FA, and then address another hole with the #3 overall pick. It would be a big mistake given how slow and sluggish Lewis has looked the past 2 seasons to rely on him as more than a part-time RB. The injuries he's sustained through the years are catching up to him, and he's likely slowing down faster than most RBs despite him only being 27 years old. It's a shame given he was the face of their offense for a number of years. His fantasy value is completely dependent on the NFL Draft, so I'll wait to evaluate him until after the draft in April.

Baltimore Fallout - They traded for McGahee, which I'll cover in it's own topic, so they won't miss Jamal Lewis.

New York Giants Trade For Reuben Droughns

This is great news for the fantasy value of Brandon Jacobs. I expect the Giants will probably add more RB talent in the draft, but Droughns has spent time at both RB and FB in his career, and the Giants gave up very little (disappointing WR Tim Carter) to acquire him. Droughns will give the Giants a versatile backup RB who can start given an injury, but like the Jordan/Rhodes situation in Oakland, his skill set isn't different than Jacobs' skill set, so he'll be firmly entrenched as the backup. Jacobs will be in line for 20 carries a season next year, including goal line work, so he'll definitely be a worthy RB2 to draft. If the Giants don't add any top-notch RB talent in the draft, Droughns is worth a pick as a RB4 or as a handcuff to Jacobs. He'll likely be the starter if Jacobs goes down in this scenario.

Cleveland Fallout - With Jamal Lewis slated to start and the Browns likely to add a RB on the 1st day of the draft, Droughns will not be missed.

Detroit Signs T.J. Duckett

Amid rumors that Detroit is interested in trading Tatum Bell, this signing seems to indicate that they won't make a deal. They'll likely have to be offered something completely ridiculous for Tatum Bell to want to deal him. Duckett is not a starting RB in the NFL, however he possesses great straight-line power and is a perfect complement with Tatum Bell. This signing seems to indicate that Detroit is not convinced that Kevin Jones will recover until mid-season, especially given that both Tatum Bell and Duckett are on one year contracts. It does, however, show that Detroit is fully committed to Kevin Jones as their RB of the future. Duckett crushes Tatum's value while KJ is hurt as Duckett will vulture the TDs at the goal line for Detroit. Tatum is better suited as an RB3 now. Duckett is a decent RB4, and perhaps an RB3 in TD-only leagues.

Washington Fallout - With Portis returning healthy and Betts as his backup, Washington had no need for Duckett.

New England Signs Donte Stallworth

New England has done a nice job picking up quality value at the WR position this offseason. Stallworth's value on the free agency market took a bit hit with the news that he's enrolled in the NFL's substance-abuse program. The Patriots then swooped in and essentially gave Stallworth a one year deal. No matter what Stallworth does this season, he's likely just insurance for Chad Jackson. Jackson didn't develop as quickly as the Patriots coaching staff would have liked, plus he suffered a knee injury towards the end of the season. Jackson still remains a very talented WR of the future for this franchise. Stallworth will immediately become their deep threat, but with all the WRs on the Patriots roster now (Stallworth, Welker, Jackson, Gaffney, Caldwell), it'd be a mistake to think Stallworth will rack up big numbers in New England's offense. He'll likely be overvalued next season and is probably best fit as a WR3.

Philadelphia Fallout - Reggie Brown becomes the unquestioned #1 WR for the Eagles and could provide excellent value in drafts next season. He'll have the opportunity to post WR2 numbers as someone probably drafted in the WR3 range.

Atlanta Signs Joe Horn

This was a good signing for a Falcons team void of a reliable WR. Horn will provide consistent hands, which is something Vick hasn't had at the WR position during his career. Horn will also provide young WRs Michael Jenkins and Roddy White with a mentor for how to play the position at the NFL level and could help their development. In terms of his fantasy value, I have a feeling he'll be overvalued due to the assumption he'll be the unquestioned #1 WR on this offense, and also due to name recognition. The fact is that he's a 35 year old WR who is coming off of 2 seasons marred by leg injuries. He isn't the deep threat he once was, and to draft him as anything more than a WR3 would be a mistake. He'll have a chance to post a 1000 yard/6 TD season if he stays healthy, but odds of him surpassing that are weak.

New Orleans Fallout - Marques Colston is now the unquestioned #1 WR for New Orleans, and he proved last year when Horn was out that he had no problem taking on #1 corners. He's now entrenched as a lower-end WR1 and should be drafted in the top 12 WRs next year. The fact he'll know the offense and the NFL better next year is a scary proposition for opponents give the immense success he had as a rookie.

St. Louis Signs Randy McMichael

Well, apparently Scott Linehan did not like what he saw in his 2 rookie TEs (Joe Klopfenstein, Dominique Byrd) last season. Shortly after Miami cut McMichael, Linehan quickly moved to sign his old Miami TE. Linehan knows how to use him, so McMichael should maintain the same fantasy value as he used to have on Miami, a lower option as a TE1. This should also help Bulger's fantasy value as he'll have another talented option to throw the ball to. McMichael is still young, so this squashes the chance that Klopfenstein would have had to emerge this season and also severely dulls his long term value in dynasty leagues.

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