Fantasy Football Lessons Learned

QB:

I've already posted my QB analysis, so that's covered.

RB:

1) Avoid overworked RBs from the previous year. Larry Johnson, as I warned readers prior to the regular season, was a huge risk of sustaining an injury this season. Now it's hard to take full credit for this as his injury was a bit flukish in nature as his leg was caught underneath him, but the history still holds true that RBs who receive 375 f/carries (carries + 1/2 receptions) are at high risk of breaking down the following season. Not only that, but the worries about his surrounding offensive situation and his holdout proved very valid and he started off horribly slow, then only managed a couple good games against bottom-of-the-barrel run Ds. Steven Jackson also falls into this catagory as he also surpassed the 375 f/carry mark last year. His torn hamstring costed his owners a lot of productoin during his absence. The third, LT, is pretty much the exception to all rules. Luckily no RB hit that magic number this year, although Willie Parker was well on his way until breaking his leg. Clinton Portis came the closest at 348.

2) Avoid the 30ish RBs early on. Those expecting resurgent seasons from Shaun Alexander and Edgerrin James were sorely disappointed, especially Alexander as he costed a much higher price tag. Not only did he get hurt for the 2nd straight year, but he absolutely fell off the map during the 2nd half of the season. Edgerrin James continued his durability, but his production also took a nose-dive in the 2nd half of the season. Alexander seems likely to get a chance as the featured back again next year, but I wouldn't bother wasting my time with him. There's no upside left. James is likely headed for a committee as he winds down his career. Jamal Lewis and Fred Taylor are both up there in age, but they were drafted as RB3s, and they represent a much safer draft choice in that range.

3) Strongly consider offensive situation. Frank Gore was the perfect example of this. His skills didn't go anywhere, and he's still young, but the offense fell apart and he was directly a victim of the 49ers inability to pass the football. Adrian Peterson/Chester Taylor were an exception this year thanks to their incredible offensive line, but expect defenses to adjust. If the Vikings don't add a reliable veteran WR somewhere along the line, Peterson could suffer from a production drop like Gore experienced this season. Top rushers like LT, Westbrook, Parker, and Jamal Lewis (what the hell?) were on offenses that were balanced enough to keep defenses honest. Rivers and McNabb struggled a bit this year, but the defense still had to respect the passing game, and the runners benefitted.

4) Beware first time feature RBs. Talented RBs like Joseph Addai, Brandon Jacobs, Marshawn Lynch, and LenDale White all failed to play 16 games. None of them had been a feature NFL RB before, and it seems to have become a pattern that first timers either wear down like Addai and Lynch, or miss multiple games like Jacobs and White. All of these guys made solid draft choices, but as the season wears on, make sure to acquire an insurance policy in case you lose one when it matters most. Marion Barber, Michael Turner, and any rookie RB will likely fall into this catagory next season.

WR:

1) Identify potential breakout stars. These are guys in their 2nd or 3rd seasons that take the next step. Braylon Edwards, Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings, Santonio Holmes, and Roddy White all qualify for this catagory this year. All were huge draft day steals who paid dividends to their owners. Braylon Edwards was a bit of a surprise, but he produced no matter what the previous year down the stretch despite the QB carosel. Brandon Marshall flashed impressive skills his rookie season, and Walker's injury allowed him to shine. Santonio Holmes battled some nagging injuries, but he turned into one of the NFL's best deep threats and will continue getting better. Anderson's stabilization of the CLE QB situation took Edwards into the fantasy elite. Roddy White was the biggest surprise, and he really blossomed down the stretch once Chris Redman took over and started looking downfield more often. If Atlanta adds a reliable veteran QB, he'll be one to target next year. Dwayne Bowe, Calvin Johnson, and Ronald Curry are all guys to keep in mind for next season.

2) Consider QB changes. Andre Johnson is the biggest beneficiary of this as Kubiak's system finally added a QB in Schaub that matched his offense, and AJ boomed into the fantasy elite while healthy. WRs can have tremendous talent, but if they don't have the proper system around them, they won't realize it. AJ should be a stud for years to come.

3) Marques Colston is for real. He suffered from a slight sophmore slump, but he really turned it on in the 2nd half, and he's here to stay. The Saints still need to find a more reliable secondary target to complement him, but he's a borderline WR1, and will be for a while.

4) Anquan Boldin gets hurt too much. I love this dude's skills, and I think he's very similar to T.O. The problem is that he's been banged up quite a bit. I think he's entering a catagory of player where you just can't expect 16 games from him, and you have to analyze his draft day value accordingly.

TE:

1) Don't reach. Gates is great, but he's not worth taking so far ahead of the others. Let's see if his ADP adjusts next year. I made a huge mistake by drafting Vernon Davis too early in several drafts, thinking that he would break out and become the next great TE. The skills are there, but guys like Chris Cooley and Jason Witten were available much later. Analyze the passing offense for the pass catchers and wait around for one. Winslow was a much better risk as he not only came much later, but he also had huge upside with health concerns. If you screw up and take a bust TE with the 9th or 10th pick, it's not a huge deal. If your 5th or 6th round TE busts, it's a much bigger deal.

K:

1) As I say every year, there's absolutely no reason to be picking a kicker above the last round. Find an offense that you think will score a lot, preferably one that plays in a dome or in warm weather come December so you don't have to worry about him the last month, and grab him in the last round.

D/ST:

1) How did that Baltimore pick treat you this year? Again, don't draft a defense before the last several rounds. Very few defenses are worth playing every week anyways.

All Positions:

1) A solid indicator of breakout stars lies in looking at 2nd half boomers. These are guys who picked up their play in the 2nd half of the previous year. They don't necessarily have to light the fantasy football world on fire, but guys who showed progress as the season went along. Tony Romo, Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes, Chris Cooley, and Jason Witten all qualify for this year. Guys to keep an eye on for next year are Jay Cutler, Donovan McNabb, Laurence Maroney (the Pats will run him more next year), Ryan Grant, Roddy White, and Tony Scheffler.

I hope you guys all enjoyed another season of fantasy football in 2007. I certainly did, and I aim to bring you more detailed preseason assessments, more accurate observations, and a full season's worth of player updates later on this year. I don't anticipate running into another work-related episode like I did this past season as I'm looking for a job that won't do that to me again. :)

I'll be posting soon with some preliminary fantasy baseball thoughts. Cheers!