Post-Season QB Value Analysis

My ranking are based on standard scoring of 1 pt/25 yards passing, 1 pt/10 yards rushing, 6 pts/TD, and -2 pts/turnover.

What I Said: 1.11) Peyton Manning - Manning is over-valued this year.

What Happened: Manning finished as the #3 QB this season. Given he went about a round and a half before the next QB on average, it was a steep price to pay for his yearly consistency, especially at the expense of a RB1 or top WR. I'd give myself a solid grade here.

What I Said: 3.02) Carson Palmer - Palmer is a good value this year, and a much better value than Manning.

What Happened: Palmer finished as the #9 QB this season. Rudi Johnson's heavy workload of the past several years caught up to him, and he was hampered by a hamstring injury all year. Rudi, the past several years, balanced out the offense and provided a reliable power running game to complement Palmer's downfield attack. Palmer continues to utilize CJ and TJ to their strengths, but shoddy protection this year led to way too many mistakes (20 INT). I'd give myself a poor grade here as Palmer was NOT worth a 3rd round pick.

What I Said: 3.10) Tom Brady - Brady is a decent value this year.

What Happened: Tom Brady finished as the #1 QB this season. He was the top fantasy football player this year. I did note that he had the best talent of his career surrounding him, which should have been obvious to everyone. Randy Moss found his motivation, Stallworth did well after-the-catch, and Welker owned the middle of the field. Brady wasn't just a decent value, he was arguably a steal. I'd give myself an OK grade here.

What I Said: 3.12) Drew Brees - Brees is over-valued this year.

What Happened: Brees finished as the #5 QB this season. Brees got off to a dreadful start, and given he was likely a 3rd round pick, he probably hurt your team pretty bad in the first month. He rebounded and looked like the Brees of old down the stretch, but he was a much better buy-low candidate thanks to the slow start than he was a 3rd round pick. I'd give myself a solid grade here, although he definitely proved his worth in the 2nd half of the season.

What I Said: 4.05) Marc Bulger - Bulger is a solid value this year.

What Happened: Bulger finished as a disaster. The Rams offensive line was absolutely ravaged by injuries, and thanks to the poor protection, Bulger got hit early and often, and this led to numerous injuries and a lot of missed games. Bulger had not completed a 16 game season prior to his stellar 2006 season, and I should have factored that in, although nobody could have predicted the amount of injuries to the Rams offensive line. I'll give myself a poor grade here, but injuries aren't always predictable.

What I Said: 4.10) Donovan McNabb - There's a lot of varying opinions on him this year, but I believe McNabb is a solid value.

What Happened: McNabb finished as the #12 QB this season. He started off slow, as I mentioned, turned in a monster game against Detroit, which at the time looked like the start of his rebound, and then he regressed back to a very medicore QB1. He did finish the season strong, but it was too late for those who selected him in the 5th round. Westbrook rightfully became the focal point of the offense. I learned that these knee injuries are tricky, and given McNabb relies on his mobility to be an effective passer, it affected him more than Palmer. Once he got used to becoming more of a pocket passer, he settled in and looked very good. The injury forced him to change his style, and that took too long of an adjustment period. I'd give myself a poor grade here for not having the foresight to see that happening.

What I Said: 6.01) Jon Kitna - Kitna is a good value this year.

What Happened: Kitna finished as the #14 QB this season. Everything seemed to be in place for him to repeat his 2006 success, but after a very strong start, things fell apart in a hurry. Calvin Johnson was overrated heading into the season, and he looked like most rookie WRs: lost. He dropped passes, ran wrong routes, and was hardly a reliable WR2 to keep attention off of Roy Williams. Shaun McDonald emerged as a decent WR2, but Mike Furrey disappeared. Once defense adjusted and only worried about Williams, Kitna looked lost. Martz refused to stay committed to the running game, and called for too many downfield routes, leaving Kitna in the pocket to get hammered all season long. It's amazing he lasted 16 games. I'd give myself a poor grade here, but Martz deserves part of the blame. :)

What I Said: 6.09) Matt Hasselbeck - Hasselbeck is over-valued this year.

What Happened: Hasselbeck finished as the #7 QB this season. Given he was taken 8th overall on average, he lived up to his draft position, and better yet, he closed the season very strong. Once Alexander predictably showed his age, Holmgren adjusted his offense to become very pass-happy, and Hasselbeck's fantasy owners were a huge beneficiary of that. Given I told everyone to stay away from Alexander this season, I should have realized that Hasselbeck would benefit from Alexander not scoring all the time. I'll apply that next year. I'll give myself a poor grade here.

What I Said: 7.05) Tony Romo - Tony Romo is a good value this year.

What Happened: Romo finished as the #2 QB this season. I was money on this prediction. Romo was a stud the entire year, although he looked lost when Owens got hurt in week 15. Unfortunately that was the worst possible time for that to happen, but Romo most likely advanced his fantasy teams into the playoffs and should be a perenial top 5 option as long as Owens remains dominant. The Cowboys just don't have the WR depth behind Owens. I'll give myself a good grade here.

What I Said: 7.05) Phillip Rivers - Rivers is slightly over-valued.

What Happened: Rivers finished as the #16 QB this season. Rivers was over-valued, and I was right on here. He did not take that next step this season, and he actually regressed. The Chargers did acquire Chris Chambers, but he still remained inconsistent afterwards, which was a problem for him all season. He ran his mouth too much and didn't back up any of it. I'm not sure what to think of him as a QB moving forward, although Norv Turner has a solid track record of developing young QBs. Perhaps it was an offensive scheme change that caused this. I'll give myself a solid grade here.

What I Said: 8.06) Vince Young - Vince Young is slightly over-valued.

What Happened: Young finished as the #18 QB this season. Like Rivers, he also regressed as teams focused on stopping his rushing ability and giving him lanes to pass through. He didn't take advantage, although the disgusting lack of talent at WR and TE on the Titans doesn't do him any favors whatsoever. He can't do everything on his own. I'll give myself a solid grade here.

What I Said: 8.06) Matt Leinart - Matt Leinart is a good value.

What Happened: A complete mess followed by season-ending collarbone break. I was way off on this one. News leaked out that Leinart was putting far more attention into partying and being "Hollywood" than he did studying the playbook, and the results sure proved that. He turned in 2 poor performances, he started splitting time with a far more effective Kurt Warner, and then he broke his collarbone. Warner showed what that offense can do with a solid QB, which is move the ball effectively. Leinart better get himself into the film room and out of the way of the cameras. I'll give myself a poor grade here as the injury was hardly the source of the problem.

What I Said: 9.02) Jay Cutler - Jay Cutler is a good value.

What Happened: Cutler finished as the #11 QB this season. He was drafted as a fringe starter, and while I stated that was his downside, that's how he ended up. Once Javon Walker proved unable to play through his ailing knee, Cutler found a new favorite target in Brandon Marshall. Once Tony Scheffler recovered from his broken foot, he finally added a secondary option. He again showed promise, but remained a much better matchup QB than a weekly option. I'll give myself a solid grade here as the lack of receiving targets stunted his development, and I did mention what his downside was.

What I Said: 9.12) Eli Manning - Manning is a good value.

What Happened: Manning finished as the #13 QB. Manning wasn't a "good" value as much as he was a "solid" value. He looked very good to start the season, but once Burress' injured ankle started slowing him down, Manning lost his deep threat. Steve Smith suffered his own injury, and then Shockey battled his usual assortment of nagging injuries before breaking his leg. The injuries to all his weapons certainly stunted his fantasy potential, and it shows how important the health of the weapons are to a QB's fantasy potential. I'll give myself an OK grade here.

What I Said: 10.03) Ben Roethlisberger - Roethlisberger is my favorite value pick at QB this season.

What Happened: Roethlisberger finished as the #4 QB this season. This was my money pick, and I targeted him in every draft, acquiring him in all but 1. Big Ben proved that last season was a fluke and become just short of a fantasy stud. Holmes has emerged as one of the game's better deep threats, Ward is a steady possession receiver, and Heath Miller did well over the middle, but is still under-utilized. If you waited to nab your starting QB until the 10th round, you likely built up quite a roster before worrying about your QB. With the uncertainty ahead of him, Big Ben (and waiver picks like Warner and Anderson) prove that you do NOT need to waste a high pick on a starting QB when you can further your depth at other positions instead. I'll give myself a solid grade here.

Summary:

Solid Grades: 7
OK Grades: 2
Poor Grades: 6

9/15 isn't too bad. I of course learned even more this year about where to find the values, and what all to take into consideration when determining what a QB's value is. I still firmly believe that this value-based approach is far better than simply putting a top 15 list together for your draft day preparation.