QB Value Analysis

This is the first installment of several articles I will write about value analysis. I will start with the QB position, and work through the RB, WR, and TE positions as well. The point of these articles is examining the current ADP (average draft position) of each player being drafted as a starter in a 12 team league using the 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE starting requirements. Then, we can determine whether or not a player is being drafted at the right position given the information we have now.

I personally don't believe in making a "top whatever" list at each position as I don't believe that's the most ideal way of how to build your team through a draft. I believe you should react to how players are currently being drafted this year as those are the facts of player values this year. Now this is hardly a set guideline as each draft will produce its own trends, but setting yourself up for where players should be valued can go a long way to prepare yourself for your draft.

1) Tom Brady
ADP: 6.2 (1st round, 6th pick)
Value: Over Valued

What's Changed In 2008: Released WR Donte Stallworth.

Overview: Tom Brady was a fantasy monster in 2007, finishing as the top overall fantasy points producer for any position in pretty much every scoring system. The additions of Randy Moss and Wes Welker were perfect fits as Brady was able to both unleash the deep ball and throw over the middle to move the chains. However, let's think back to 2004 when Peyton Manning broke the NFL record with 49 TD passes. He was then drafted in the middle of the 1st round, and he never lived up to that lofty draft position despite having yet another fine season. The NFL has a crazy way of adjusting to all trends, so expect defenses to blitz Brady and drop back to prevent the passing onslaught he put on last season. Brady is set up for another fine season as I don't they'll lose anything moving from Stallworth to 3rd year man Chad Jackson, but he's not going to be breaking records again, and most importantly, he's not going to be this much better than QBs going several rounds later.

2) Peyton Manning
ADP: 18.2 (2nd round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately to Over Valued

What's Changed In 2008: Offseason knee surgery for QB Peyton Manning and WR Marvin Harrison.

Overview: Peyton Manning was in fine form as usual in 2007, despite losing his longtime primary target Marvin Harrison to a knee injury for most of the season. Manning underwent offseason knee surgery for a bursa sac, but the surgery isn't expected to cost him any regular season time. Given the offense is the same as it's always been, he shouldn't have more than a game of rust in him once the games start to count. Marvin Harrison's knee is certainly cause for concern, but given the expected maturation of Anthony Gonzalez and the performance of Manning last season without Harrison, it shouldn't affect Manning's value. Simply put, you're paying for consistency and not upside, so this boils down to the risk you're willing to take with your QB position.

3) Tony Romo
ADP: 20.9 (2nd round, 9th pick)
Value: Over Valued

What's Changed In 2008: New starting RB Marion Barber, released WR Terry Glenn.

Overview: Tony Romo proved all his doubters wrong with a big 2007 season. Terrell Owens was Terrell Owens, and Jason Witten emerged as a top TE and the secondary target. The concerning thing to note here is how badly Romo fell apart when Terrell Owens got hurt for the last couple games. Romo turned in a brutal outing in week 15 last season, and then turned in a marginal performance in week 16. Given the horrible lack of depth behind Owens at the WR spot, if Owens were to go down, Romo would border on not useable. Given the incredible shape Owens keeps himself in, it's not nearly as concerning as it usually would be for most 34 year old WRs. However, with Romo's value tied closer to one player than any of the other QBs being taken around him, I'd rather use my 2nd round pick on someone else. Also, I don't see Romo being 2ish rounds better than the QBs behind him.

4) Drew Brees
ADP: 32.0 (3rd round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2008: New starting RB Reggie Bush, traded for TE Jeremy Shockey.

Overview: Drew Brees struggled out of the gate in 2007 as teams adjusted to his new downfield prowess, and also thanks to the season-ending knee injury that Deuce McAllister suffered. Without the power rushing game, the passing attack lacked a complimentary partner. However, the Saints and Brees eventually adjusted and got back on track with a nice close to the 2007 season. Deuce McAllister technically returns, but the health of both his knees is very much in question. Reggie Bush will be the primary RB now, and he adds a Brian Westbrook-like presence to the backfield in the passing game. Jeremy Shockey has recently been added to the passing attack, which should open up the downfield attack once again in 2008. Shockey is a huge upgrade to often injured Eric Johnson, and he's the player the Saints needed to deflect defensive attention away from Marques Colston and the other outside WRs. Shockey's addition should ensure that Brees provides solid value to those who draft him in 2008.

5) Carson Palmer
ADP: 42.0 (4th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2008: The uncertain RB situation, released WR Chris Henry, signed TE Ben Utecht.

Overview: Carson Palmer hasn't recaptured the same magic he had prior to his torn ACL in the playoffs of the 2005 season. In 2007, Rudi Johnson's lingering injuries deprived the Bengals of their power rushing game, which like with the Saints above, destroyed the downfield passing game's compliment. Complicating things were the 8 game suspension of Chris Henry and the constant wrong routes ran by Palmer's WRs. The RB situation still looks to be tenuous as the odds are stacked against Rudi Johnson returning to form, and Chris Perry always seems to be hurt despite currently being healthy. The wild card here is Kenny Watson, who proved he was up to the task when he received several starts last season. Cincinnati would likely be at their best with Watson who has proven durable and a force in the passing game. The best thing about Cincinnati's passing game in 2008 is both Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh are playing for new contracts, so they will be highly motivated to bring their A game for all of 2008. Also worth noting is that the Bengals added TE Ben Utecht, formerly of the Colts, and he's immediately the best receiving TE that Palmer has played with. I believe Palmer will return to elite form in 2008.

Update: With CJ's pending injury, the release of Chris Henry, and the uncertain running game, I no longer view Palmer as a possible elite QB this season. I do, however, think he'll be a solid starter and worth taking around where he's going.

6) Ben Roethlisberger
ADP: 48.8 (5th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued

What's Changed In 2008: Drafted RB Rashard Mendenhall and WR Limas Sweed.

Overview: Big Ben provided the best value of all QBs in 2008 with a big season mostly anchored by all his passing TDs. He was incredibly consistent throwing TDs, and even provided some rushing stats as well. The Steelers didn't really throw the ball that much more than usual, but since they lacked the big goal line RB to punch the ball home in the red zone, they spent most of their time in the red zone throwing the ball, leading to 32 TD passes for Big Ben. With the addition of Rashard Mendenhall, that figures to change. He will provide the big goal line RB the Steelers were missing last season, and as a result, I expect Big Ben's TD passes to drop. Considering the Steelers have no reason to start airing the ball out, especially with 2 capable RBs, those lost TD passes should depress his value such that he'll have a hard time living up to his draft status.

7) Derek Anderson
ADP: 54.4 (5th round, 6th pick)
Value: Over Valued

What's Changed In 2008: Signed WR Donte Stallworth.

Overview: Derek Anderson exploded out of nowhere in 2007 to become a starting fantasy QB. His big arm and aggressive style perfectly suited the downfield strengths of Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow. However, his struggles and lesser production down the stretch in 2007 is well worth noting. Cleveland's offensive line is young, good, and should be even better in 2008. They also added Donte Stallworth, but who knows if his fragile legs will stay healthy long enough for him to make an impact. The biggest thing working against Derek Anderson is his job security. If the Anderson or the Browns get off a slow start, you know the calls for Brady Quinn will ring loud, despite the fact that Anderson signed a fairly big deal this offseason to be the starter. The talent is there both for him and around him to succeed at the NFL level, but it's extermely hard to recommend a QB who doesn't have 100% job security as a fantasy starter. He's easily the biggest risk/reward among the top 12 QBs.

8) Matt Hasselbeck
ADP: 60.2 (5th round, 12th pick)
Value: Over Valued

What's Changed In 2008: Signed RB Julius Jones, released RB Shaun Alexander and WR D.J. Hackett, WR Deion Branch is hurt.

Overview: Matt Hasselbeck come on huge down the stretch in 2007 as Shaun Alexander was either hurt or ineffective, so the Seattle offense had to adjust and air the ball out. Deion Branch tore his ACL, and he likely will begin the season on PUP in 2008, and there's a chance he won't play at all this year. DJ Hackett was a bit unreliable health-wise, but he was very productive when on the field. He too is gone. Hasselbeck simply does not have enough weapons around him anymore to be a starting fantasy QB. The additions of Julius Jones, and to a much lesser degree TJ Duckett, will help beef up the running game to balance out the offense. Nate Burleson, Bobby Engram, and a bunch of no name WRs will be Hasselbeck's primary targets. While I believe in the Seattle offensive system and Hasselbeck, the talent just isn't there for Hasselbeck to put up big numbers.

9) Donovan McNabb
ADP: 65.4 (6th round, 5th pick)
Value: Under Valued

What's Changed In 2008: McNabb is fully recovered from his torn ACL.

Overview: Donovan McNabb sorely disappointed all who drafted him in 2007 as he started off very slowly, with the exception of one huge game against Detroit in week 3. He quietly returned to form in the 2nd half, posting a better completion percentage and more rushing yards. The Eagles tried hard to trade for a primary WR in the offseason, but they were unable to land either Roy Williams or Larry Fitzgerald. Despite that, I expect McNabb to return to form in 2008. He'll have a full offseason to focus on working with his passing targets instead of worrying about rehabbing his knee, and he'll also have his full mobility throughout the season. Without an elite WR or the mobility from his earlier days, McNabb doesn't have the talent in place to be an elite fantasy QB anymore, but he should return to being a quality starter. Given his injury risk, it's recommended to draft a backup early rather than late.

10) Eli Manning
ADP: 83.6 (7th round, 11th pick)
Value: Over Valued

What's Changed In 2008: Traded TE Jeremy Shockey.

Overview: Eli Manning led the Giants on possibly the most improbable Super Bowl run in NFL history. Despite being the same old Eli Manning during the regular season, he morphed into a completely different QB in the playoffs, showing consistency, accuracy, and good decision making in all 4 games he played, mostly against very good defenses. Even if he carries that over to the regular season, the loss of Shockey really limits his upside, as does the reliance on the running game to power the offense. Plaxico Burress is a tough WR to count on over the course of a season, and he's the only proven WR in the bunch. Amani Toomer will continue to slow down, although 2nd year WR Steve Smith remains a very intriguing target likely to mature this season. Kevin Boss is likely to replace Shockey, and while he's a solid pass catcher, he's not the talent that Shockey is. I think the 8th-12th spot is the upside for Manning's final ranking in 2008, so I don't see the upside here to make Eli a solid value pick.

11) Jay Cutler
ADP: 86.0 (8th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Under Valued

What's Changed In 2008: New starting RB Selvin Young, signed WRs Darrell Jackson and Keary Colbert, and WR Brandon Marshall's 2 game suspension.

Overview: Jay Cutler made some strides in 2007, showing off his talent amidst the growing pains that a 2nd year QB often endures. He was aided by Brandon Marshall turning into one of the best WRs in the NFL. 2008 was set up for Cutler to break through among the 2nd tier of fantasy QBs as he has the big arm, the talent around him, the system, and the running ability to put up consistent QB1 games with a few gems sprinkled in. Primary target Brandon Marshall will miss 2 games due to a suspension. Without Marshall, they are left with the questionable health of Darrell Jackson and Tony Scheffler along with the once promising, but now inconsistent Keary Colbert. Simply put, when Marshall plays, there are enough potential secondary receiving targets to make Cutler a great fantasy QB. Without Marshall, there isn't a sure thing on the roster, although Cutler should prove to be a borderline/matchup starter regardless. Brandon Marshall only faces a 2 game suspension, so those drafting Cutler will need to draft a reliable QB2 that they could start for not only for the 2 games that Marshall misses, but also to cover for any additional missed time Marshall might rack up.

12) Marc Bulger
ADP: 86.4 (8th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

What's Changed In 2008: Released WR Isaac Bruce.

Overview: Everything that could have gone wrong for Bulger in 2007 did. The offensive line was ravaged by injuries, Steven Jackson missed a good chunk of time, Torry Holt lost some of his ability to get separation, and Bulger himself got pummeled enough to miss time with injuries. His offense mostly returns healthy in 2008, although longtime secondary WR Isaac Bruce has left for SF. The offense will regroup under new coordinator Al Saunders and focus on the running game with Steven Jackson this time around. Drew Bennett is a blah secondary target, and the WR depth behind Holt and Bennett is terrible. Randy McMichael stands to benefit the most as Saunders loves using his TEs (Gonzalez in KC, Cooley in WAS), but he's not enough of a difference maker to overcome the problems at WR. Bulger is a good QB, but he no longer has the talent around him to be a difference maker. He's a solid selection where he's going in drafts and likely to finish right around where he's drafted, but I don't see the upside.

With the top 12 starters profiled, I'll list some sleepers here now:

15) Aaron Rodgers
ADP: 115.3 (10th round, 7th pick)
Value: Under Valued

What's Changed In 2008: What hasn't? He's the new starting QB!

Overview: Now there's still a slight chance that Brett Favre could return to the Packers, but I'm going to dismiss that as I don't believe it'll happen, regardless of the recent 3 week drama surrounding the situation. Aaron Rodgers is set up for success in his first season. He has a strong offensive line, a good RB in Ryan Grant, a great WR group in Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones, and youngster Jordy Nelson, and a solid TE in Donald Lee. Plus, to top it off, he has a coach who loves to pass. Rodgers has endured some freak injuries in the times he's started, but he's talented, knows the offense, and is not your typical first year starter. I'm expecting good things from Rodgers this season, and there's plenty of reason to believe that if he stays healthy, he'll finish in the top 12 QBs this season. Couple him with another reliable QB.

16) Matt Schaub
ADP: 117.9 (10th round, 9th pick)
Value: Under Valued

What's Changed In 2008: Nothing.

Overview: Matt Schaub looked like the starting QB that Houston expected him to be in 2008 prior to getting banged up with injuries and eventually missing the rest of the season. Much like Aaron Rodgers, he presents a health risk, but Schaub is a great sleeper candidate to break through into the tier of fantasy starter. Andre Johnson is a stud WR, Kevin Walter emerged as a solid secondary option, 2nd year WR Jacoby Jones is very talented and poised to make a 2nd year jump, and TE Owen Daniels is a great target over the middle. The offensive line is somewhat of a question mark with a rookie LT slated to start, but Houston has the talent and the offensive scheme to be able to pass the ball effectively and score TDs. Expect Schaub to be the primary beneficiary of this team finally putting together a solid offense. Also like Rodgers, couple him with another reliable QB.

17) Jake Delhomme
ADP: 131.8 (11th round, 12th pick)
Value: Under Valued

What's Changed In 2008: Drafted RB Jonathan Stewart, signed WRs D.J. Hackett and Muhsin Muhammad.

Overview: Jake Delhomme suffered a lost 2007 thanks to the need of Tommy John surgery to repair ligament damage in his elbow. He presumably returns healthy in 2008, and he might have the most talent around him since the Panthers Super Bowl run. Steve Smith is still a stud, DJ Hackett should prove to be a talented secondary option, Muhsin Muhammad returns as reliable veteran, and the offensive line has been beefed up. The Panthers will remain a run first team, especially with the addition of power RB Jonathan Stewart, but both Stewart and DeAngelo Williams are accomplished in the passing game and will provide capable receivers out of the backfield. Delhomme won't be a fantasy stud due to the run-first offensive philosophy, but I believe he'll re-emerge as a starting option with the talent around him.

18) Vince Young
ADP: 136.6 (12th round, 4th pick)
Value: Under Valued

What's Changed In 2008: He's not on the cover of Madden. ;) Drafted RB Chris Johnson, signed WR Justin McCareins and TE Alge Crumpler.

Overview: Vince Young, after a wonderful end to the 2006 season, endured a rough learning curve in 2007 as teams adjusted to his running style of play. He also battled leg injuries that sapped him of his explosiveness. Finally, offensive coordinator Norm Chow, who is now gone, just wasn't fit to run an NFL offense. I believe in Vince Young's talent, and you should too. This guy has been a winner at every level of football he's ever played at, and he's the one QB that can overcome substandard talent at the receiver positions to be a fantasy force, much like Michael Vick did. He won't post the rushing totals that Vick provided, but he has the talent to come relatively close, and he's more inclined to improve in the passing game as I feel he has the desire to do it. Justin McCareins and Justin Gage hardly scare defenses, but they are tall vertical threats who fit new offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger's style. Alge Crumpler, as long as his knee holds up, will provide a huge upgrade to the TE position that Vince Young loves to utilize. Lastly, the Titans drafted Chris Johnson, who is very similar to Reggie Bush in terms of passing game prowess and elite speed. Young's rushing totals will help pad him against clunker performances in the passing game, and they'll enhance the games where he shines throwing the ball. Vince Young should return to fantasy starter material this year, and he won't come this cheap for quite some time.

Deep Sleepers:

24) Tarvaris Jackson
ADP: 201.9 (16th round, 10th pick)
Value: Under Valued

What's Changed In 2008: Signed WR Bernard Berrian.

Overview: Tarvaris Jackson is only the kind of QB that you go after if you have a top 5 stud QB like Brady, Manning, Romo, Brees, or Palmer. With the 16 game consistency you get from those guys, you can afford to take a chance on a QB you would only need to play in an emergency. Jackson came on fantasy-wise down the stretch in 2007, and he's the fastest QB playing the game right now. He's very much a poor man's Michael Vick. He has an excellent offensive line, 2 great RBs, and 2 talented WRs in Bernard Berrian and Sydney Rice. He doesn't have the decision making and accuracy you'd like in a QB, but his speed and arm strength are both impressive, and there's a chance that something could click with all the talent that surrounds him. He's someone to keep in mind as a late round flier, or if he goes undrafted.

25) Alex Smith
ADP: 202.9 (16th round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued

What's Changed In 2008: New offensive coordinator Mike Martz, signed WRs Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson.

Overview: Alex Smith is a lesser risk than Tarvaris Jackson because he's going to play on a more balanced offense, and all things considered, he's a better QB with more experience. His WRs aren't great with Isaac Bruce, Bryant Johnson, and Arnaz Battle, but Mike Martz has made guys like Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald fantasy relevant before. They have a great RB in Frank Gore who's among the best pass catching RBs in the NFL, and Vernon Davis is easily the most talented TE that Martz has ever worked with before. I have faith in Mike Martz's offensive scheme to think Alex Smith has an outside chance of approaching QB1 value during at least part of the season.