1) LaDainian Tomlinson
ADP: 1.1 (1st round, 1st pick)Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Phillip Rivers' ACL surgery, Antonio Gates' foot surgery, released RB Michael Turner.
Overview: What to say about LT? He plays in a great system with a very good offensive line and a good passing attack. His durability is amazing, although he did suffer his first real injury in the playoffs last season when he strained his knee and didn't last more than a carry or two in the 2nd round. That shouldn't affect him in 2008, nor is it a worrisome recurring injury. His owners don't have the luxury of drafting a clear-cut backup this year with Michael Turner leaving for Atlanta, and a likely committee situation between Darren Sproles and Jacob Hester should LT go down. Complicating things is Rivers' return from ACL surgery, and we've learned with Palmer in 2006 and McNabb in 2007 that the first half is often a rough stretch of games marked by inconsistent play. If anything, that should mean plenty of LT to start the season while Rivers settles back in. LT has more questions around him this season than the past couple years, and part of me is scared that this is the year that he'll start to fade, but it's hard to ignore his incredible track record.
ADP: 2.2 (1st round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Adrian Peterson is the new starting RB for the Vikings, signed WR Bernard Berrian.
Overview: A sprained MCL de-railed ADP's incredible rookie season, but nobody will forget the way he carved up CHI and SD's defenses last season. ADP is a ridiculous blend of talent in every area, but he has managed to get injured this past 3 seasons. His sophomore season at Oklahoma was marred by high ankle sprain, his junior season at Oklahoma was cut short by 2 collarbone breaks, and his rookie season in Minnesota was interrupted by a sprained MCL. Only the collarbone injury was one to worry about moving forward, and he seems to have put that behind him with his performance last year without further re-injury. He has a stud offensive line in front of him, but be aware of a potential suspension to Bryant McKinnie that might cost the big LT a couple games. He has a great backup in Chester Taylor who is a must-have for all ADP owners, and he'll cost you a 7th round pick on average, but it's well worth the investment. Although none of his injuries will linger, one must be aware that he's been hurt the past three seasons and at least consider him somewhat of an injury risk. Chester will take some carries, but ADP will see the ball plenty, and he's likely to put up a very impressive season. Just beware that's he's a huge risk/reward with this high of a price tag.
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Adrian Peterson is the new starting RB for the Vikings, signed WR Bernard Berrian.
Overview: A sprained MCL de-railed ADP's incredible rookie season, but nobody will forget the way he carved up CHI and SD's defenses last season. ADP is a ridiculous blend of talent in every area, but he has managed to get injured this past 3 seasons. His sophomore season at Oklahoma was marred by high ankle sprain, his junior season at Oklahoma was cut short by 2 collarbone breaks, and his rookie season in Minnesota was interrupted by a sprained MCL. Only the collarbone injury was one to worry about moving forward, and he seems to have put that behind him with his performance last year without further re-injury. He has a stud offensive line in front of him, but be aware of a potential suspension to Bryant McKinnie that might cost the big LT a couple games. He has a great backup in Chester Taylor who is a must-have for all ADP owners, and he'll cost you a 7th round pick on average, but it's well worth the investment. Although none of his injuries will linger, one must be aware that he's been hurt the past three seasons and at least consider him somewhat of an injury risk. Chester will take some carries, but ADP will see the ball plenty, and he's likely to put up a very impressive season. Just beware that's he's a huge risk/reward with this high of a price tag.
3) Brian Westbrook
ADP: 3.5 (1st round, 3rd pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Donovan McNabb is fully recovered from his torn ACL.
Overview: Brian Westbrook had his best season yet last year, showing remarkable consistency with a yardage total no less than 90 yards in any week. He broke off big plays, was extremely active in the passing game, and simply was the best fantasy RB on a week to week basis as far as consistency is concerned. Philadelphia vows to lessen his workload this year, and with Donovan McNabb 100%, I'd agree that this is likely the case. Westbrook continues to have knee problems as the season wears on each year, and it caused him to miss a game last season. It's very hard to predict injuries, but I'm going to guess that it becomes more of a problem for him this season. He logged 368 touches last year, the most of his career, and this is the highest ADP of his career. I don't think he'll live up to his draft position this season.
ADP: 3.5 (1st round, 3rd pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Donovan McNabb is fully recovered from his torn ACL.
Overview: Brian Westbrook had his best season yet last year, showing remarkable consistency with a yardage total no less than 90 yards in any week. He broke off big plays, was extremely active in the passing game, and simply was the best fantasy RB on a week to week basis as far as consistency is concerned. Philadelphia vows to lessen his workload this year, and with Donovan McNabb 100%, I'd agree that this is likely the case. Westbrook continues to have knee problems as the season wears on each year, and it caused him to miss a game last season. It's very hard to predict injuries, but I'm going to guess that it becomes more of a problem for him this season. He logged 368 touches last year, the most of his career, and this is the highest ADP of his career. I don't think he'll live up to his draft position this season.
4) Steven Jackson
ADP: 4.4 (1st round, 4th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Released WR Isaac Bruce.
Overview: Steven Jackson was the latest victim to the 370 f/carry (carries + 1/2 catches) RB model. This model has shown that 50% of RBs with 370+ f/carry in a season get hurt the following season, and 72% lose at least 20% of their previous season's production. Jackson achieved both. Also, 72% of RBs put up 200 or less fantasy points each season after the 370 f/carry season. Given Jackson's relatively young age, he has a decent chance to overcome this, but the facts definitely have to be weighed into the decision. His ADP shows that owners expect him to bounce back, so there's little value to be had here. Jackson's passing game prowess should keep his total yardage high, but his TD production should be a limited as his surrounding offense is the worst it's been in his career. All things considered, his value will rely on his health as he has the talent and enough of an offense to put together a good season.
ADP: 4.4 (1st round, 4th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Released WR Isaac Bruce.
Overview: Steven Jackson was the latest victim to the 370 f/carry (carries + 1/2 catches) RB model. This model has shown that 50% of RBs with 370+ f/carry in a season get hurt the following season, and 72% lose at least 20% of their previous season's production. Jackson achieved both. Also, 72% of RBs put up 200 or less fantasy points each season after the 370 f/carry season. Given Jackson's relatively young age, he has a decent chance to overcome this, but the facts definitely have to be weighed into the decision. His ADP shows that owners expect him to bounce back, so there's little value to be had here. Jackson's passing game prowess should keep his total yardage high, but his TD production should be a limited as his surrounding offense is the worst it's been in his career. All things considered, his value will rely on his health as he has the talent and enough of an offense to put together a good season.
5) Joseph Addai
ADP: 4.7 (1st round, 4th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Offseason knee surgery for QB Peyton Manning and WR Marvin Harrison.
Overview: Joseph Addai turned in a successful first season as the Colts primary RB, but he noticeably slowed down with a variety of minor injuries in the 2nd half. He hadn't been the primary ball carrier for a team since high school, and it was cleraly evident in the 2nd half. His surrounding offense returns, and it's looking more and more likely that Marvin Harrison will return and be productive. The problem is that Manning's offseason knee surgery will likely lead to a slow start, and Addai is NOT the type of RB who can carry a team on his own. I believe his 2nd half fade is something that should be strongly considered when deciding whether or not to select him. Addai runs well between the tackles, is great at catching passes, and most importantly, is a good goal line runner. I expect another good season from Addai this year, but I have a feeling that his 2007 fade was for real, and that he won't be as productive as he was in the first half of the 2007 season.
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: Offseason knee surgery for QB Peyton Manning and WR Marvin Harrison.
Overview: Joseph Addai turned in a successful first season as the Colts primary RB, but he noticeably slowed down with a variety of minor injuries in the 2nd half. He hadn't been the primary ball carrier for a team since high school, and it was cleraly evident in the 2nd half. His surrounding offense returns, and it's looking more and more likely that Marvin Harrison will return and be productive. The problem is that Manning's offseason knee surgery will likely lead to a slow start, and Addai is NOT the type of RB who can carry a team on his own. I believe his 2nd half fade is something that should be strongly considered when deciding whether or not to select him. Addai runs well between the tackles, is great at catching passes, and most importantly, is a good goal line runner. I expect another good season from Addai this year, but I have a feeling that his 2007 fade was for real, and that he won't be as productive as he was in the first half of the 2007 season.
6) Marion Barber
ADP: 8.3 (1st round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Marion Barber is the new starting RB for the Cowboys, released WR Terry Glenn.
ADP: 8.3 (1st round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
What's Changed: Marion Barber is the new starting RB for the Cowboys, released WR Terry Glenn.
Overview: Fantasy nation expects a lot from Marion Barber, taking him over established primary RBs such as Frank Gore, Larry Johnson, and Clinton Portis. I believe he'll come through. He has been a lesser committee member the past two seasons, but has had his touches increase each season. There's no question that he knows how to punish defenses, be active in the passing game, and most importantly, find the end zone. There's no running back in a better situation than Barber. His offensive line is excellent at run blocking, and the surrounding passing game returns all key members from a hugely productive 2007. Rookie Felix Jones will get carries and help spell Barber as a lesser committee member this year, so Marion won't be seeing 300+ carries, but he'll make up for it with receiving yards his TDs. I believe he's a top 5 RB.
7) Frank Gore
ADP: 8.9 (1st round, 9th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: New offensive coordinator Mike Martz, signed WRs Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson.
Overview: Frank Gore had a pretty damn impressive 2007 season, even if he didn't live up to his lofty draft position. Despite the disgusting offense around him, Gore ran hard and posted some nice yardage with a respectable TD total. He also played through an annoying ankle sprain for part of the year. Enter Mike Martz, who while previously known for his passing attack at the expense of the running game, will undoubtedly improve the offense. Martz has openly stated that he'll anchor the offense around Gore, which makes sense as he's easily the best offensive player on the team. The improved passing game will open up more lanes for Frank Gore, lead to more TD chances, and since he's such an accomplished receiver, he'll remain plenty productive in games that are more pass-oriented. His carries might be a bit inconsistent and I doubt Martz will completely commit to the running game, but Gore's yardage totals will remain great. Gore is a good value being taken behind RBs I wouldn't select over him.
ADP: 8.9 (1st round, 9th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: New offensive coordinator Mike Martz, signed WRs Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson.
Overview: Frank Gore had a pretty damn impressive 2007 season, even if he didn't live up to his lofty draft position. Despite the disgusting offense around him, Gore ran hard and posted some nice yardage with a respectable TD total. He also played through an annoying ankle sprain for part of the year. Enter Mike Martz, who while previously known for his passing attack at the expense of the running game, will undoubtedly improve the offense. Martz has openly stated that he'll anchor the offense around Gore, which makes sense as he's easily the best offensive player on the team. The improved passing game will open up more lanes for Frank Gore, lead to more TD chances, and since he's such an accomplished receiver, he'll remain plenty productive in games that are more pass-oriented. His carries might be a bit inconsistent and I doubt Martz will completely commit to the running game, but Gore's yardage totals will remain great. Gore is a good value being taken behind RBs I wouldn't select over him.
8) Larry Johnson
ADP: 10.6 (1st round, 10th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Brodie Croyle, drafted OT/OG Branden Alberts.
ADP: 10.6 (1st round, 10th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Brodie Croyle, drafted OT/OG Branden Alberts.
Overview: Larry Johnson, like Steven Jackson, fell victim to the 370 f/carry RB study. Unlike Steven Jackson, however, LJ logged 416 carries in 2006...and that's not including the receptions! Such a workload was never seen in the NFL before, and LJ's holdout didn't help. He started horribly slow, put together a couple decent games against some very weak rushing defenses, and then injured his foot and missed the rest of the season. Exactly as those of us familiar with the RB study expected. Things don't get any easier for LJ as his offensive line continues to look below average on paper, although they did add some talent in the draft in Branden Albert, the massive lineman from Virginia. One talented rookie lineman certainly won't fix the blocking problems, however. Dwayne Bowe finally adds a stud talent to the WR group, and Tony Gonzalez is still a great TE, but the passing game is terrible outside of those two. Brodie Croyle scares no one. With a below average offense, the ridiculous workload between the 2nd half of 2005 / all of 2006, and the RB1 price tag, I will not think twice before passing over LJ once again.
9) Clinton Portis
ADP: 11.2 (1st round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: New head coach Jim Zorn, drafted WRs Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas.
ADP: 11.2 (1st round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: New head coach Jim Zorn, drafted WRs Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas.
Overview: Clinton Portis seemed to have a lingering knee issue during most of the 2007 offseason on into the preseason, and the Ladell Betts watch was on after Betts had a very impressive 2006 season with Portis hurt. When the regular season started, Clinton Portis was just fine by posting yet another solid season, and Ladell Betts became an after-thought. His rushing yardage was wildly inconsistent (9 games under 70 yards), but the 11 TDs and 389 receiving yards helped him put together a good RB1 season. Jim Zorn will revamp the offense into a WCO (west coast) like he helped run in Seattle, and if Shaun Alexander is any indication, that's good news for Clinton Portis. With a great line, a solid young QB, and a good TE along with some decent WRs comprising his surrounding offense, Portis looks set up for his best season in Washington yet. The fact his speed seemingly returned with a healthy offseason (ran a sub 4.4 40 yard dash) looks good for Portis' ability to break some big runs again this season. Portis is being undervalued, and I like him better than a number of RBs being select ahead of him.
10) Marshawn Lynch
ADP: 14.0 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Trent Edwards, drafted WR James Hardy.
ADP: 14.0 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Under Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Trent Edwards, drafted WR James Hardy.
Overview: Marshawn Lynch exploded onto the fantasy football scene last year, but in a rather below-the-radar fashion. Lynch never had a yardage day worse than 79 yards, which is very consistent for a rookie, and he posted a RB1 season. Lynch missed 3 games with a high ankle sprain, showing once again that rookie runners/1st time primary RBs have a very hard time finishing a full 16 game season in their first year. He provided excellent value to all who drafted him last season. The Bills offensive line has slowly become a solid unit anchored by young stud Jason Peters, the addition of James Hardy should open up the offense a bit, and Trent Edwards will offer less big plays than JP Losman, but he should manage the game much better and make far less mistakes. I believe Lynch is the victim of "prove it" since he's not a special talent like Adrian Peterson, and that's why people are hesitant to take him over some of the bigger names being selected above him. Don't make the same mistake...Lynch is for real.
11) Ryan Grant
ADP: 14.1 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Aaron Rodgers.
Overview: I think most people know the Ryan Grant story by now. Buried on the Giants depth chart to start the 2007 offseason, he eventually made his way onto the Packers, and after Brandon Jackson struggled and DeShawn Wynn got hurt, Grant debuted in week 8 and never looked back. He either posted at least 90 total yards or at least 1 TD in every game from weeks 8 to 17, busting big run after big run and tallying 5 100 yard games. He even tossed in a 200 yard performance in the playoffs against Seattle. He was a stud RB1 from week 8 onwards. His offensive line returns, but with the change to Aaron Rodgers at QB, I expect him to see more 8 man fronts to start the season. It seems like a natural assumption given the loss of Brett Favre to retirement. Grant is a hard player to analyze as he wasn't a standout in college, and he doesn't have much of a track record to back this explosion up. He's a good fit for the Packers zone blocking scheme, but with some of the stud WRs being drafted around him (Wayne, Owens, Braylon Edwards), I'd opt to take a surer thing. The fact he's holding out and allowing Brandon Jackson to impress the coaching staff is another negative. All things considered, I believe Grant offers up way too much downside for this high of a selection.ADP: 14.1 (2nd round, 2nd pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: New starting QB Aaron Rodgers.
12) Willis McGahee
ADP: 15.8 (2nd round, 4th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: New offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, QB competition, OT Jonathan Ogden retired, drafted RB Ray Rice.
ADP: 15.8 (2nd round, 4th pick)
Value: Over Valued
What's Changed: New offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, QB competition, OT Jonathan Ogden retired, drafted RB Ray Rice.
Overview: Willis McGahee rewarded his 2007 drafters with a low RB1 season and pretty solid consistency. His switch to Baltimore re-motivated him, and he responded with at least 103 total yards in his first 5 games, but no rushing TDs. He then went on a 7 game rushing TD scoring streak, scoring exactly once in each game. He then posted his two worst games in weeks 14 and 16 before sitting out in week 17. McGahee just doesn't have the same explosion that he had prior to the devastating knee injury he suffered at Miami, and it's clear that it's not coming back. He did bust a few more big runs last year, but he's a workhorse back at this point in his career whose fantasy value depends on a high volume of carries. The Ravens offense was nothing to write home about last year, but with a first year starter (Troy Smith, Joe Flacco) likely to lead the team, there's a decent chance it might be worse. The good news is that new offensive coordinator Cam Cameron knows how to maximize the production from his RBs. Ray Rice was drafted, and while he's a very underrated talent, he's not a threat to McGahee's job. McGahee is being drafted exactly around where he should end up. He has some additional upside with the new coaching staff, and his workload should prevent downside.
Update: McGahee has undergone arthroscopic knee surgery and will likely miss at least week 1. Given this is the same knee he destroyed in college, I am no longer recommending McGahee in the 2nd round. His downside is too great at this point.
No comments:
Post a Comment