1/4 Season Review: Buy Low Candidates

The whole buy low, sell high concept complete varies by league, but once 4 weeks are in, the smarter owners are generally less concerned about where they drafted players, and they are more concerned with how the players are actually performing. If an owner is too concerned with where he/she drafted a player, the ability to buy low is pretty much impossible, so understand the owners of your league before attempt to construct a trade with them.

The other thing to consider is how to make an offer for a buy low candidate. Trying to lowball the owner for him is usually insulting, and the offer won't be taken seriously. Some of these are players that would usually be on their owner's "I'm not trading" list, but they could be available for a solid offer. The point isn't to rob the owner, but simply to improve a position on your team by acquiring someone who would demand a king's ransom to acquire if they were playing up to expectations.

Peyton Manning - He seems pretty obvious. The time lost in the offseason due to multiple knee surgeries killed his timing, and he showed obvious rust during his first 3 games. With the bye week to get things straight, I think you see the Peyton Manning you expected in the pre-season starting from week 5. If you could use a hot starter like Kurt Warner in a package to get Manning, do it.

Ben Roethlisberger - I was right in marking him as over-valued heading into the season as he's pretty much been a disaster during the first month, but I believe times are a changing. He has one more potentially tough matchup against Jacksonville (depending on the health of their secondary - Schaub lit up the injured version last week), and then a bye week to rest his hand and shoulder. He's not going to start tossing TDs like crazy like last year, but I believe he can still be a lower QB1 over the rest of the year despite the lesser amount of passing attempts compared to most QBs.

Matt Schaub - Unfortunately the window might have closed after last week's 300 yard, 3 TD performance, but his overall numbers still look pretty sickly. I think he can be a lower QB1 over the rest of the season as Houston will pass plenty, and he has good talent around him at all the skill positions.

RB:

Joseph Addai - Addai was another guy I marked as over-valued (after my primary posting of the draft guide) heading into the season because this is not a guy that can carry the Colts offense if Manning isn't opening lanes for him. Addai suffered from both the rust of Manning and the loss of center Jeff Saturday. I believe he'll come out after the bye week and post better production, although expecting a repeat of the first half of last year would be overly optimistic.

Brandon Jacobs - Jacobs had a big first week as he carved up Washington's defense on his 21 carries, but he didn't receive more than 15 carries in the next two games, including a horrible 35 yard effort versus a blah Cincy run defense. The Giants will continue to mix Ward and Bradshaw in, but Jacobs should still be a solid RB2, and his owner might be a bit down on him after the strong first week.

Laurence Maroney - Maroney was drafted in the 1st round last year, and was a bust. Maroney was drafted in the 4th round this year...and he's still been a bust. I'm trying to trade for him in one of my leagues right now. My thought is that NE, coming out of the bye week, will start to focus on the running game. They simply can't run the same spread offense with Cassel as they did with Brady, so they're going to have to run the ball and play defense. Maroney is the 2nd most talented player on offense behind Randy Moss, and they need to get him the ball. He killed it down the stretch last year and throughout the playoffs, so all he needs is the carries. Given Morris sucked in week 3 when he started, I don't see any reason why NE won't start featuring Maroney again.

Willie Parker - Parker tore it up in week 1, posted a solid week 2, and then disappeared with an injury. He'll eventually return from his sprained knee, and he will take over the primary ball carrier position when he does with Mendenhall out for the year. If his owner is depleted at the RB position, and you have RB depth, attempt to get him with an eye on him returning after their bye week.

LenDale White - White has lost his primary RB position to Chris Johnson, but he still remains the goal line runner and the between-the-tackles specialist. Chris Johnson is a very talented rookie, and he has a bright future, but I forsee him hitting the rookie wall at some point, especially since he's not built like a true workhorse. White would unquestionably benefit in that scenario, so he is an interesting guy to stash as a RB3/4 type with an eye towards RB2 value should something happen to Johnson.

WR:

Andre Johnson - AJ posted 112 yards in week 1, but has struggled in back to back games, not going for more than 40 yards in either. He hasn't scored yet, either. That, however, is his own fault as he dropped 2 TDs in week 3. With Schaub righting the ship last week, it's only a matter of time before AJ starts posting the numbers we expected heading into the season.

Santonio Holmes - Holmes has alternated bad and good games so far, so he's been more of a WR3 than the WR2 you drafted him to be. While I feel that he'll be fairly inconsistent because the Steelers just don't throw the ball enough, he's the top WR on this team, and Big Ben's improvement will lead to improvement for Holmes as well.

There really aren't a lot of underperforming WRs. Cincy WRs would be toast if Palmer has a serious elbow injury, so despite their slow starts, I can't recommend acquiring them. Braylon's situation is tied to his QB, and Anderson is lost. Quinn would provide stability for him, but not as many big plays. He might be worth going after, but not at a WR1 price.

TE:

Kellen Winslow - I think he'll come at a discounted rate with the Browns offense looking like a disaster. Quinn would be a big boost to Winslow, who's great in the short-intermediate game. Quinn doesn't have the arm of Anderson to bomb it downfield to Edwards all the time, and his game is well suited to make use of Winslow's talent. Quinn used his TEs in college a decent bit as well. Either Anderson rights the ship, or Quinn takes over...both of which are positives for Winslow.

The TEs are a freakin' mess this season so far, but Winslow is the only one I have confidence in to rebound right now.