Tuesday, September 30, 2008

1/4 Season Review: Sell High Candidates

QB:

Kurt Warner - If Warner remains healthy and the Cardinals stay in the NFC West race, he will continue to rack up great stats with the talent he has at the WR position. He needs to avoid turnover-fests like he put up in week 4. Warner is also an injury risk, and if the Cardinals start losing, there's no reason to continue starting a veteran QB. It's not a bad idea to strike while the iron is hot and use him to upgrade another position, especially since he was probably drafted as your QB2. If you can get good QB1 value for him, then do it, because the Cardinals have to keep winning, and Warner has to stay healthy in order for him to maintain his current value.

RB:

Michael Turner - Turner should be a solid RB2 all season long, but his production will directly be tied to the strength of the defense and team he's facing. Since he offers very little in the passing game, and the Falcons possess an explosive passing game option in Jerious Norwood, Turner will find production hard to come by when his team is behind. What's worse is that the stronger defenses will be better equipped to focus on him as the primary offensive threat on this offense, enabling them to shut him down like Tampa Bay and Carolina have. See if you can get RB1 given how gaudy his stats are after two weeks.

Reggie Bush - This is another tough call. The problem is that Bush is still the same, uninspiring runner he's always been, but there's no doubt he's a passing game ace. He'll be plenty involved all season long in the offense, but given his inability to run between the tackles, he's going to have a hard time being consistent. Plus, Deuce is back to take care of the inside running. If someone is willing to pay RB1 value for his name, go for it.

Larry Johnson - Obvious call here. He's racked up a couple big games against horrendous defenses, but much like Turner, he's going to be horribly inconsistent. If you can cash in after his huge week 4 on a believer that he's back to his 2006 level of production, don't think twice about dealing him.

WR:

Terrell Owens - Owens has now had his first argument with Tony Romo, coming after last week's game where Owens was clearly frustrated about what was going on in the offense. Owens might settle down with a big game in week 5, but you always have to wonder with his extended past of turning these things into distractions from his on-field play. If you can deal him for someone like Brandon Marshall, Larry Fitzgerald, etc, do it and rid yourself of a potential future headache. I would not move him unless you get another top tier WR in return, or if you're very deep at WR and get a huge upgrade somewhere else.

Chad Johnson - This is more selling low, but if Palmer has a season-ending injury, deal him for his name value and get what you can for him. There's no way he'll be a consistent fantasy producer with someone like Ryan Fitzpatrick leading the offense. Do NOT attempt to trade him until you hear about Palmer, because if Palmer's elbow is actually OK, then it's only a matter of time before CJ get's going again, and CJ becomes a buy low target.

Greg Jennings - Jennings has truly surprised me by becoming the go-to guy in the GB offense. However, if anything is wrong with Aaron Rodgers, you need to deal him. Matt Flynn will not continue to lead a proficient passing attack like Rodgers has been doing so far this season.

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