Toronto Blue Jays starter Roy Halladay has been placed on the disabled list with acute appendicitis. Heh, right after I just got done posting about him. The Blue Jays say that he'll miss about a month, and this is obviously bad news for all his owners who were likely counting on him to be their staff ace this year. The concerns about his forearm remain, and given the Blue Jays flatout lied about B.J. Ryan's injury earlier this year by saying it was a back problem instead of an elbow problem, you have to wonder if they're playing games again here. If it's truly appendicitis, he should be back in 3-4 weeks and be fine.
Fantasy Impact: What can I say? As hard as we try, we can't replace an ace. You'll have to check your waiver wire and see what's out there. Or, you can do something I started doing in my league where my rotation isn't deep and use spot starters. The key there is to factor in where he's pitching, the offense he's pitching against, the offense behind him, and the opposing pitcher. Use common sense and rankings, and you'll likely turn out a few gem starts in there somewhere. I'll post any additional news regarding his situation.
Friday, May 11, 2007
Henry Owens To The DL
Florida Marlins closer Henry Owens has been placed on the disabled list with right rotator cuff tendonitis. One of this year's surprises will be out for a few weeks, and I believe this injury is just treated with rest. Unfortunately, this gives Marlins' manager Fredi Gonzalez the opportunity to invent a reason to go back to Jorge Julio as his closer. Given his comments earlier this week about wanting to see Julio back in this role, this is likely the scenario that will play out.
Fantasy Impact: Go ahead and put Owens on your DL, but pay close attention to what happens in his absence. I would not bother picking up Julio...let someone else drool over his save potential while you keep your ERA and WHIP nice and slim. Instead, pick up Taylor Tankersley and wait for Julio to explode like the volcano he is if you have an empty roster spot and feel like placing a "futures" bet.
Fantasy Impact: Go ahead and put Owens on your DL, but pay close attention to what happens in his absence. I would not bother picking up Julio...let someone else drool over his save potential while you keep your ERA and WHIP nice and slim. Instead, pick up Taylor Tankersley and wait for Julio to explode like the volcano he is if you have an empty roster spot and feel like placing a "futures" bet.
Zambrano and Hallday Suck, Escobar Rules, And One Hot Johnson
Carlos Zambrano: Seriously, can the Cubs just start using him in the 2nd inning? Another first inning blowup led to 3 runs before the Cubs offense even got to hit. Again, he settled down after that and pitched good baseball the following 5 innings. He gave up 6 runs in total, 4 earned, with two coming after Murton screwed up a flyball that should have been out #3. He's actually pitching well the last three outings in the overall sense, but 2 first inning blowups have made his lines look worse. I'm sure he'll get this figured out, and his buy-low window is still wide open.
Jason Bay: 2-4 with a double and a bomb. Hopefully this is the start of another power outburst as he's still underproducing so far this early season. His numbers aren't bad enough to warrant much of a buy-low, but perhaps you can persuade his owner that the surrounding lineup is bad enough to get him at a discount with somewhat sub-par numbers thus far. Wouldn't hurt.
Roy Halladay: Yuck. 5 IP, 11 H, 7 ER. That's two straight bad outings from Halladay, and it's worth nothing that he never really did anything to completely fix his forearm problems. Maybe it's bothering him again, maybe not. His next start is a big one for his owners because 3 straight ugly appearances from a pitcher this good would be bad news.
Kelvim Escobar: Who had him benched yesterday? I did! Double yuck. 9 innings of shutout ball with 9 Ks against the powerful Cleveland offense. Escobar is on a serious roll, and now affords you a sell high opportunity because this man cannot stay off the disabled list for very long. If you can get a top notch starter for him in return for either him straight up or a package with a lesser player, jump ship. Still, he'll be putting up very nice numbers while he's healthy.
Dan Johnson: Perhaps he's pissed off about that AAA demotion last year, or perhaps he's realizing his potential. 4-4 with 2 HRs yesterday gives him a .383 line with 4 HRs and 12 RBIs on the season in limited action. His 8 K/11 BB ratio is excellent, and he's well worth an add in mixed leagues if you're not already too late. He's not a 30 HR guy from what I've read, but 18-20 more from here on out for a guy that's likely your UTIL man would be pretty nice along with a quality batting average.
Tim Wakefield: A 1.79 ERA? Crazy. He's more of the 4.00 ERA guy, but he's pitching extremely well and might be worth a spot start against weaker offenses, especially with Boston's powerhouse offense backing him. A much better pitcher in leagues that don't count Ks, but those leagues aren't fun anyways.
David Weathers: Easily one of the last closers off the board on draft day is providing solid value so far. A sub 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 14 Ks in 15 IP. A very unlikely closer candidate, but he's doing the job well so far and is probably worth shopping as he's never been this good.
Ken Griffey Jr.: He is en fuego right now with 5 HRs and 10 RBIs in the past 10 games, not to mention the .432 AVG in that same span. If you can find someone in your league that think he's jumped in the fountain of youth and will hit 40 HRs this season, you've found a trading partner, and also the league idiot.
Daniel Cabrera: There isn't a much better matchup for him than a young, impatient Tampa Bay lineup, but he found a way to give up 6 runs in 6 IP while only striking out 2, but walking none. What the hell? At least he won. From the looks of it, I'd guess he was around the strike zone a little too much. That being said, he'll probably throw a no hitter with 25 Ks the next time you bench him.
Jose Contreras: Two shutouts on the same day. Contreras is quietly pitching very well, but his K rate has gone south this season as he's only K'd 21 batters in 40 1/3 IP. He's worth keeping an eye on, and possibly spot starting against weaker offenses. He's worth less if he continues to not miss bats, but you can't ignore the sub 3.00 ERA he's posted since getting lit up on opening day.
Jason Bay: 2-4 with a double and a bomb. Hopefully this is the start of another power outburst as he's still underproducing so far this early season. His numbers aren't bad enough to warrant much of a buy-low, but perhaps you can persuade his owner that the surrounding lineup is bad enough to get him at a discount with somewhat sub-par numbers thus far. Wouldn't hurt.
Roy Halladay: Yuck. 5 IP, 11 H, 7 ER. That's two straight bad outings from Halladay, and it's worth nothing that he never really did anything to completely fix his forearm problems. Maybe it's bothering him again, maybe not. His next start is a big one for his owners because 3 straight ugly appearances from a pitcher this good would be bad news.
Kelvim Escobar: Who had him benched yesterday? I did! Double yuck. 9 innings of shutout ball with 9 Ks against the powerful Cleveland offense. Escobar is on a serious roll, and now affords you a sell high opportunity because this man cannot stay off the disabled list for very long. If you can get a top notch starter for him in return for either him straight up or a package with a lesser player, jump ship. Still, he'll be putting up very nice numbers while he's healthy.
Dan Johnson: Perhaps he's pissed off about that AAA demotion last year, or perhaps he's realizing his potential. 4-4 with 2 HRs yesterday gives him a .383 line with 4 HRs and 12 RBIs on the season in limited action. His 8 K/11 BB ratio is excellent, and he's well worth an add in mixed leagues if you're not already too late. He's not a 30 HR guy from what I've read, but 18-20 more from here on out for a guy that's likely your UTIL man would be pretty nice along with a quality batting average.
Tim Wakefield: A 1.79 ERA? Crazy. He's more of the 4.00 ERA guy, but he's pitching extremely well and might be worth a spot start against weaker offenses, especially with Boston's powerhouse offense backing him. A much better pitcher in leagues that don't count Ks, but those leagues aren't fun anyways.
David Weathers: Easily one of the last closers off the board on draft day is providing solid value so far. A sub 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 14 Ks in 15 IP. A very unlikely closer candidate, but he's doing the job well so far and is probably worth shopping as he's never been this good.
Ken Griffey Jr.: He is en fuego right now with 5 HRs and 10 RBIs in the past 10 games, not to mention the .432 AVG in that same span. If you can find someone in your league that think he's jumped in the fountain of youth and will hit 40 HRs this season, you've found a trading partner, and also the league idiot.
Daniel Cabrera: There isn't a much better matchup for him than a young, impatient Tampa Bay lineup, but he found a way to give up 6 runs in 6 IP while only striking out 2, but walking none. What the hell? At least he won. From the looks of it, I'd guess he was around the strike zone a little too much. That being said, he'll probably throw a no hitter with 25 Ks the next time you bench him.
Jose Contreras: Two shutouts on the same day. Contreras is quietly pitching very well, but his K rate has gone south this season as he's only K'd 21 batters in 40 1/3 IP. He's worth keeping an eye on, and possibly spot starting against weaker offenses. He's worth less if he continues to not miss bats, but you can't ignore the sub 3.00 ERA he's posted since getting lit up on opening day.
Thursday, May 10, 2007
B.J. Ryan To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
B.J. Ryan, after a second examination on his elbow, was told to undergo Tommy John surgery today. He'll be out the rest of the season. Like I said before, with Jason Frasor giving up runs in his last 3 appearances, it's likely the Blue Jays will turn to Jeremy Accardo in the next save situation. It's a situation worth monitoring as there's no clearcut answer right now.
Fantasy Impact: Drop B.J. Ryan in all redraft leagues and in most shallow keeper leagues. Only put him on the DL if you play in a league where all reliable closers are kept. Jeremy Accardo is worth a roster spot now, and Frasor is worth holding onto if you have the space. I just wouldn't suggest keeping him active until this situation plays out and he starts showing consistency.
Fantasy Impact: Drop B.J. Ryan in all redraft leagues and in most shallow keeper leagues. Only put him on the DL if you play in a league where all reliable closers are kept. Jeremy Accardo is worth a roster spot now, and Frasor is worth holding onto if you have the space. I just wouldn't suggest keeping him active until this situation plays out and he starts showing consistency.
A "Complete Game Shutout" No Decision, Dice-K Rebounds, and Forgotten Closers Making Waves
James Shields: 9 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 1 BB, 4 K. That statline means a win, right? Wrong. Unfortunately for us Shields owners, he hurled 9 shutout innings to get a ND as Erik Bedard, Dannys Baez, and Chris Ray matched his goose eggs with goose eggs of their own. Shields continues his strong pitching and is well worth using in all appearances but those against elite offenses.
Erik Bedard: Shields' nemesis last night produced 7 shutout innings of 10 K baseball. I hope you bought low on him, because his last two outings show that he's turned it around.
Dice-K Matsuzaka: I read this morning that the Red Sox adjusted his throwing schedule to allow him to throw more in between starts. Japanese baseball teams have their pitchers throw a lot more, and due to Matsuzaka becoming used to that schedule from pitching in the Japanese major leagues since he was 18 years old, Boston felt he was too strong during his starts. Let's hope this shift in routine helps Dice-K get out of his slump, because he looked much better last night. He never had control problems in Japan, but for some reason he's walked 18 in 45 IP over here. I imagine he'll get past this.
Lyle Overbay: 2 HRs last night, and he's hitting almost .300 this month. After a slow start, he's worth adding if you're hamstrung by injuries to your offense, or if you use multiple UTIL or CI spots. His 2006 season was nice, and he has the talent to replicate it.
Rafael Soriano: He's received the last several save chances, so it appears that he's the favorite for saves after all. I think it's moreso the fact more righties are due up in the 9th since Gonzalez has worked the 9th before with tough lefties up. While it's technically a committee, the makeup of most lineups makes Soriano the favorite.
Brad Lidge: I know just his name alone produces gag reflexes and violent outbursts, but hear me out. He's allowed one run in his last 10 appearances, totalling 15 Ks and only 2 BBs. He's clearly turned himself around, and given there's probably no closers on your waiver wire, all Dan Wheeler owners should go pick Lidge up. He's proving to have plenty of value in the 8th inning role with good ratios, a high K rate, and he's got 2 wins as well. He even might get a save chance if Wheeler needs a night off. You never know when Phil Garner might get crazy and put him back in as the closer.
Derrick Turnbow: Brad Lidge's little brother (in fantasy baseball terms). He lost his job to Francisco Cordero, but he too has turned himself around posting a 1.76 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 23 Ks in 15 IP. Given the way Francisco Cordero has been used (6 straight appearances as of last night, which is borderline abuse for a closer), and also given that he's had shoulder issues in the past, all Cordero owners should pick Turnbow up if he's not already owned. Just like Lidge, he's an elite setup man right now and he'll help even if he's not producing saves. You never know when Cordero's shoulder might act up again.
Speaking moreso in terms of 5x5 rotisserie leagues, it's very helpful to own the good setup men, especially if you have the one that sets up your closer(s). The good ones post solid K rates and solid ratios, so while they only give you a few vulture wins and get a couple saves if the closer needs a night off, they keep your ratios down and allow you some versatility with who your starting pitchers are. Plus, you don't need to rush to the waiver wire if your closer needs a DL stint. Something to definitely keep in mind and employ. I used Scot Shields and Jonathan Broxton last year, and they gave me a handful of Ws and SVs, great ratios, and lots of Ks.
Erik Bedard: Shields' nemesis last night produced 7 shutout innings of 10 K baseball. I hope you bought low on him, because his last two outings show that he's turned it around.
Dice-K Matsuzaka: I read this morning that the Red Sox adjusted his throwing schedule to allow him to throw more in between starts. Japanese baseball teams have their pitchers throw a lot more, and due to Matsuzaka becoming used to that schedule from pitching in the Japanese major leagues since he was 18 years old, Boston felt he was too strong during his starts. Let's hope this shift in routine helps Dice-K get out of his slump, because he looked much better last night. He never had control problems in Japan, but for some reason he's walked 18 in 45 IP over here. I imagine he'll get past this.
Lyle Overbay: 2 HRs last night, and he's hitting almost .300 this month. After a slow start, he's worth adding if you're hamstrung by injuries to your offense, or if you use multiple UTIL or CI spots. His 2006 season was nice, and he has the talent to replicate it.
Rafael Soriano: He's received the last several save chances, so it appears that he's the favorite for saves after all. I think it's moreso the fact more righties are due up in the 9th since Gonzalez has worked the 9th before with tough lefties up. While it's technically a committee, the makeup of most lineups makes Soriano the favorite.
Brad Lidge: I know just his name alone produces gag reflexes and violent outbursts, but hear me out. He's allowed one run in his last 10 appearances, totalling 15 Ks and only 2 BBs. He's clearly turned himself around, and given there's probably no closers on your waiver wire, all Dan Wheeler owners should go pick Lidge up. He's proving to have plenty of value in the 8th inning role with good ratios, a high K rate, and he's got 2 wins as well. He even might get a save chance if Wheeler needs a night off. You never know when Phil Garner might get crazy and put him back in as the closer.
Derrick Turnbow: Brad Lidge's little brother (in fantasy baseball terms). He lost his job to Francisco Cordero, but he too has turned himself around posting a 1.76 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 23 Ks in 15 IP. Given the way Francisco Cordero has been used (6 straight appearances as of last night, which is borderline abuse for a closer), and also given that he's had shoulder issues in the past, all Cordero owners should pick Turnbow up if he's not already owned. Just like Lidge, he's an elite setup man right now and he'll help even if he's not producing saves. You never know when Cordero's shoulder might act up again.
Speaking moreso in terms of 5x5 rotisserie leagues, it's very helpful to own the good setup men, especially if you have the one that sets up your closer(s). The good ones post solid K rates and solid ratios, so while they only give you a few vulture wins and get a couple saves if the closer needs a night off, they keep your ratios down and allow you some versatility with who your starting pitchers are. Plus, you don't need to rush to the waiver wire if your closer needs a DL stint. Something to definitely keep in mind and employ. I used Scot Shields and Jonathan Broxton last year, and they gave me a handful of Ws and SVs, great ratios, and lots of Ks.
Wednesday, May 9, 2007
Marlins/Rangers/Blue Jays Closer Situations, Beckett Wins Again, And A Small Rant
Henry Owens/Jorge Julio: Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez said that he envisions Jorge Julio back in the closers role. Now I know the Marlins traded specifically for him before the season started, but this should be nowhere close to happening. Owens has blown one save, and even then those runs scored based on someone else's throwing error. Owens has done nothing to lose the job, posting 2 relief victories and 3 saves since taking over the closer's role. This is something to keep in mind, and perhaps trading Owens along with another player to upgrade your closer position might be the best bet since Gonzalez obviously doesn't know what's best for his team, and that's to have Julio only pitch in 8-0 games.
Eric Gagne/Akinori Otsuka: Gagne has returned from his latest injury, which was some sort of hip ailment. He'll presumably return straight to the closer's role as that's why the Rangers risked millions of dollars on him. At this point it's safe to assume he'll get hurt again before too long, so Otsuka owners should definitely hang onto him. Even if he's only pitching the 8th innings, he'll help your ratios and add some Ks and a vulture win here and there while Gagne pitches towards his next injury.
Jason Frasor/Jeremy Accardo: Toronto manager John Gibbons wasn't commital to Frasor in the closer's role, and given his recent performance that should be no shock. I would pick up Jeremy Accardo as I think he'll get the next save opportunity. Accardo has yet to allow a run, and has posted 13 Ks in 14 2/3 IP. When I first posted about BJ Ryan's injury, I forgot that a few years ago Frasor was given a chance to close, and he didn't perform all that well. I usually keep these instances in mind because either a pitcher has a closer's mentality, or he doesn't, and I generally avoid those who have failed before. LaTroy Hawkins, Jason Frasor, and David Riske are examples of solid relievers that just can't handle closing. Octavio Dotel is actually another one, but he's been at least mildly successful in the role. He was nowhere near as dominant as a closer as he's been as a setup man, however.
Josh Beckett: Yup, I took Felipe Lopez over him. Good times. 7 starts later, he's 7-0 with a sub 3.00 ERA and 40 Ks in 46 2/3 IP. He has the talent to keep this up (I'd imagine an ERA closer to 3.5 than 2.5 when all is said and done), so he's not a sell high candidate unless you believe an injury is around the corner. He battled countless blister issues in Florida, but didn't have a single problem with them last year, so perhaps Boston's team doctors know something that Florida's don't.
Hank Blalock: The .295 average (.344 against LHP!) and .352 OBP are very nice, but where's the power? He's only hit 2 HRs, but he does have 10 doubles. He's bouncing back fairly well so far, but some additional HRs should be nice for someone who definitely has 30 HR power. He's providing reason for optimism, though. His R and RBI production should rise as the Texas offense gets going.
Andy Pettitte: His 2.72 ERA does not match up to his 1.43 WHIP and 27:19 K:BB ratios, but he's having success so far and pitched well last night. He's rather unlucky to only have 2 wins. His ERA will go up, but he should start winning more ballgames as he's pitching fairly well overall.
Horatio Ramirez: 7.62 ERA, including last night's performance of 5 2/3 IP, 11 Hs, 7 ERs, and 0 Ks. To think Seattle traded Rafael Soriano for him is laughable. In fact, I'd say Rafael Soriano on the DL is more effective than Horatio Ramirez in the starting rotation.
David Ortiz: Mini rant time! Boston scores 9 runs, hits 4 HRs, and I look to see Ortiz have an 0-3 night. I hate seeing a team one of your studs is on score a ton of runs, but then you check the boxscore and he's rewarded you with an 0 fer. Ugh.
Dan Wheeler: STOP GIVING UP GOPHERBALLS.
Mike Cameron: Stole a base 2 nights ago, homered last night. I think it's about time to get him back in your lineup, or pick him back up. He's streaky, but he hit 22 HRs and stole 25 bases last year. He's a bit like Torii Hunter, and he's well worth owning. In fact, I just added him in both my leagues.
Chad Gaudin: I spot started him last night against the Royals in a league where I don't really have a 5th starter, and boy did that pay off with 8 IP, 1 ER, and 8 Ks. He's put together a very impressive 2-1/2.40/1.14/34 Ks in 41 1/3 IP. He's not this good, but he's apparently worth using against weaker offenses.
Justin Morneau: He's someone I overlooked in my slow start portion of a post days ago. He's only at .274 right now after his 2/4 with 2 HR game last night, but he's up to 8 HRs total now and I expect that average to keep climbing towards the .300 area.
Eric Gagne/Akinori Otsuka: Gagne has returned from his latest injury, which was some sort of hip ailment. He'll presumably return straight to the closer's role as that's why the Rangers risked millions of dollars on him. At this point it's safe to assume he'll get hurt again before too long, so Otsuka owners should definitely hang onto him. Even if he's only pitching the 8th innings, he'll help your ratios and add some Ks and a vulture win here and there while Gagne pitches towards his next injury.
Jason Frasor/Jeremy Accardo: Toronto manager John Gibbons wasn't commital to Frasor in the closer's role, and given his recent performance that should be no shock. I would pick up Jeremy Accardo as I think he'll get the next save opportunity. Accardo has yet to allow a run, and has posted 13 Ks in 14 2/3 IP. When I first posted about BJ Ryan's injury, I forgot that a few years ago Frasor was given a chance to close, and he didn't perform all that well. I usually keep these instances in mind because either a pitcher has a closer's mentality, or he doesn't, and I generally avoid those who have failed before. LaTroy Hawkins, Jason Frasor, and David Riske are examples of solid relievers that just can't handle closing. Octavio Dotel is actually another one, but he's been at least mildly successful in the role. He was nowhere near as dominant as a closer as he's been as a setup man, however.
Josh Beckett: Yup, I took Felipe Lopez over him. Good times. 7 starts later, he's 7-0 with a sub 3.00 ERA and 40 Ks in 46 2/3 IP. He has the talent to keep this up (I'd imagine an ERA closer to 3.5 than 2.5 when all is said and done), so he's not a sell high candidate unless you believe an injury is around the corner. He battled countless blister issues in Florida, but didn't have a single problem with them last year, so perhaps Boston's team doctors know something that Florida's don't.
Hank Blalock: The .295 average (.344 against LHP!) and .352 OBP are very nice, but where's the power? He's only hit 2 HRs, but he does have 10 doubles. He's bouncing back fairly well so far, but some additional HRs should be nice for someone who definitely has 30 HR power. He's providing reason for optimism, though. His R and RBI production should rise as the Texas offense gets going.
Andy Pettitte: His 2.72 ERA does not match up to his 1.43 WHIP and 27:19 K:BB ratios, but he's having success so far and pitched well last night. He's rather unlucky to only have 2 wins. His ERA will go up, but he should start winning more ballgames as he's pitching fairly well overall.
Horatio Ramirez: 7.62 ERA, including last night's performance of 5 2/3 IP, 11 Hs, 7 ERs, and 0 Ks. To think Seattle traded Rafael Soriano for him is laughable. In fact, I'd say Rafael Soriano on the DL is more effective than Horatio Ramirez in the starting rotation.
David Ortiz: Mini rant time! Boston scores 9 runs, hits 4 HRs, and I look to see Ortiz have an 0-3 night. I hate seeing a team one of your studs is on score a ton of runs, but then you check the boxscore and he's rewarded you with an 0 fer. Ugh.
Dan Wheeler: STOP GIVING UP GOPHERBALLS.
Mike Cameron: Stole a base 2 nights ago, homered last night. I think it's about time to get him back in your lineup, or pick him back up. He's streaky, but he hit 22 HRs and stole 25 bases last year. He's a bit like Torii Hunter, and he's well worth owning. In fact, I just added him in both my leagues.
Chad Gaudin: I spot started him last night against the Royals in a league where I don't really have a 5th starter, and boy did that pay off with 8 IP, 1 ER, and 8 Ks. He's put together a very impressive 2-1/2.40/1.14/34 Ks in 41 1/3 IP. He's not this good, but he's apparently worth using against weaker offenses.
Justin Morneau: He's someone I overlooked in my slow start portion of a post days ago. He's only at .274 right now after his 2/4 with 2 HR game last night, but he's up to 8 HRs total now and I expect that average to keep climbing towards the .300 area.
Tuesday, May 8, 2007
Monday = Slow Day, But Penny Is Worth Much More Than His Name
Brad Penny: Wow, where did this come from? Penny has always had quality stuff, but he's been very inconsistent throughout his career, and he's not a very efficient pitcher. Last night was possibly the best start of his career, allowing 0 runs and 5 hits while K'ing 14 in 7 innings to pick up the win. Given he had 15 Ks in 38 IP prior to this start, he needed something like this to bring his K rate back up. He was due to as he's posted a solid 7 K/9 IP ratio in his career. He was getting extremely lucky by posting a sub 2.00 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and a 15:17 K:BB ratio so far this season, but he was very impressive last night. Now is your chance to sell high on this guy as there's no question his ERA will shoot back above 3 at some point, plus he's always an injury risk.
Fausto Carmona: Another impressive 7 innings from him last night. Given his lack of Ks (11 in 33 IP), it's hard to recommend him in anything but deeper leagues (or leagues that don't reward Ks), but he's worth a look if your rotation is struggling. I've read his poise is much improved from his attempt at closing last season, and he has a great offense supporting him. I'm not sure how long he'll stick around since he was demoted after Cliff Lee came off the DL, but he's pitching like he belongs.
Matt DeSalvo: Flukey start. 7 IP, 3 hits, and 1 R might entice you to put in a waiver claim for him, but I can't imagine him continuing success in the majors in anything other than an "occasional start" role. He didn't strike out a single batter, and he was facing a rather anemic offense. Don't bother.
Adrian Gonazalez: 9 HRs and 29 RBIs from a middle round 1B. Another round of congrats is in order for those of you who took him as a sleeper 1B or a UTIL guy. He's been awesome and has the talent to keep this up all year long. His home ballpark of Petco will hurt him somewhat, meaning more of his power will come on the road, but he's hitting .315 at home and those HRs will just be more doubles.
Dan Wheeler: Another save last night, although not without a 2 run HR. I haven't been paying attention to his ratios that much even though I own him, but he hadn't been scored upon in 8 straight appearances, so nothing to worry about here. His 1.07 WHIP is very nice, and he had a sub 3.00 ERA before last night.
Troy Tulowitzki: After a slow start to his career, he's been on fire recently. If you have SS problems, keep a close eye on him. He's now batting 2nd in the order, and that'd be a great place for his fantasy value with Holliday and Helton behind him. He has 15-20 HR power and can swipe a few bags, so he could be somewhat helpful in all catagories.
Bengie Molina: 2 HRs and 5 RBIs last night. If you're struggling at the C position with Mauer and Piazza on the DL, he's worth a look. The only problem is that with him hitting .333 right now, he's due for a decline, so picking him up with a possible downswing on the horizon might not work out so well. I've personally gone with AJ Pierzynski as my backup beacuse he's due to break out of his slump.
I bumped Molina's note to the end of the list because I wanted to expand upon what I said in there. A mistake I've made before in fantasy baseball is that when I lose a guy earlier in the season, specifically at a position I don't have a backup for, I immediately sort by what the waiver wire fodder have done so far this year and pick up the highest rated player, or my favorite among the top 3. Something you often miss by doing this is an established player who's off to a cold start. He might have been dropped, or was someone people were watching and then forgot about after that cold start. AJ Pierzynski is a solid example of this. He's a borderline starting catcher in fantasy, so he wasn't drafted in all leagues. He's a career .286 hitter, so there's no doubt that his current .227 start is abnormal, and baseball usually finds a way to average things out. I like to own players during that time, obviously, so he's often a better pickup if your starter is going to miss several weeks than someone off to a scorching start.
Fausto Carmona: Another impressive 7 innings from him last night. Given his lack of Ks (11 in 33 IP), it's hard to recommend him in anything but deeper leagues (or leagues that don't reward Ks), but he's worth a look if your rotation is struggling. I've read his poise is much improved from his attempt at closing last season, and he has a great offense supporting him. I'm not sure how long he'll stick around since he was demoted after Cliff Lee came off the DL, but he's pitching like he belongs.
Matt DeSalvo: Flukey start. 7 IP, 3 hits, and 1 R might entice you to put in a waiver claim for him, but I can't imagine him continuing success in the majors in anything other than an "occasional start" role. He didn't strike out a single batter, and he was facing a rather anemic offense. Don't bother.
Adrian Gonazalez: 9 HRs and 29 RBIs from a middle round 1B. Another round of congrats is in order for those of you who took him as a sleeper 1B or a UTIL guy. He's been awesome and has the talent to keep this up all year long. His home ballpark of Petco will hurt him somewhat, meaning more of his power will come on the road, but he's hitting .315 at home and those HRs will just be more doubles.
Dan Wheeler: Another save last night, although not without a 2 run HR. I haven't been paying attention to his ratios that much even though I own him, but he hadn't been scored upon in 8 straight appearances, so nothing to worry about here. His 1.07 WHIP is very nice, and he had a sub 3.00 ERA before last night.
Troy Tulowitzki: After a slow start to his career, he's been on fire recently. If you have SS problems, keep a close eye on him. He's now batting 2nd in the order, and that'd be a great place for his fantasy value with Holliday and Helton behind him. He has 15-20 HR power and can swipe a few bags, so he could be somewhat helpful in all catagories.
Bengie Molina: 2 HRs and 5 RBIs last night. If you're struggling at the C position with Mauer and Piazza on the DL, he's worth a look. The only problem is that with him hitting .333 right now, he's due for a decline, so picking him up with a possible downswing on the horizon might not work out so well. I've personally gone with AJ Pierzynski as my backup beacuse he's due to break out of his slump.
I bumped Molina's note to the end of the list because I wanted to expand upon what I said in there. A mistake I've made before in fantasy baseball is that when I lose a guy earlier in the season, specifically at a position I don't have a backup for, I immediately sort by what the waiver wire fodder have done so far this year and pick up the highest rated player, or my favorite among the top 3. Something you often miss by doing this is an established player who's off to a cold start. He might have been dropped, or was someone people were watching and then forgot about after that cold start. AJ Pierzynski is a solid example of this. He's a borderline starting catcher in fantasy, so he wasn't drafted in all leagues. He's a career .286 hitter, so there's no doubt that his current .227 start is abnormal, and baseball usually finds a way to average things out. I like to own players during that time, obviously, so he's often a better pickup if your starter is going to miss several weeks than someone off to a scorching start.
Monday, May 7, 2007
Roger Clemens Returns To The New York Yankees
Roger Clemens has returned for another season, signing a one year deal with the New York Yankees.
Who didn't see this one coming? I'm sure Clemens would have preferred to stay with the Astros, but he'd be doing nothing by pitching for them again. The Astros are in terrible shape and have no chance at making the playoffs this year, barring some ridiculous miracle. The top two bidders were the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. From what I've read, the Yankees outbidded the Red Sox by $10 million dollars. The Red Sox didn't feel they needed Clemens until late June as their rotation of Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka, and Wakefield has actually been very solid, plus they have Jon Lester on the way back up as well. They wanted to take Clemens back later on in the year, hopefully allowing him to stay healthier and feel fresh come playoff time. The Yankees, on the other hand, had a far greater need with the rash of injuries that have attacked their rotation. When your rotation includes Jeff Karstens and Darrell Rasner, you know times are tough. They needed help now, or face the possibility they won't be in good position to win the AL East come late June. The Yankees are taking on the risk that Clemens will have future leg problems or tire come playoff time in exchange for him helping them right now when their rotation is in shambles. It's actually worth the Yankees doing this, so for once they're not overpaying for something stupid in their rotation (Pavano, Wright, Igawa).
Fantasy Impact: For those who drafted and stashed Roger Clemens, this is what you were waiting for. However, Clemens in the AL East is far less enticing than Clemens in the NL Central as his ERA, WHIP, and K rate will suffer while his chances for wins will increase. That's not a tradeoff us fantasy baseball players want. He isn't going to be posting a sub 3.00 ERA and a sub 1.10 WHIP in the best hitting division in baseball, so I actually suggest selling high unless your fantasy rotation reminds you of the Yankees starting rotation. If you look at this numbers with the Yankees the first time around, I think that's pretty reminiscient of what we'll see now, although it's possible the wins won't be quite so high given he can't work as far into games anymore. See what you can get for him, especially if you can make a deal right now and get full value given he won't be pitching in the majors for roughly another month.
Who didn't see this one coming? I'm sure Clemens would have preferred to stay with the Astros, but he'd be doing nothing by pitching for them again. The Astros are in terrible shape and have no chance at making the playoffs this year, barring some ridiculous miracle. The top two bidders were the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. From what I've read, the Yankees outbidded the Red Sox by $10 million dollars. The Red Sox didn't feel they needed Clemens until late June as their rotation of Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka, and Wakefield has actually been very solid, plus they have Jon Lester on the way back up as well. They wanted to take Clemens back later on in the year, hopefully allowing him to stay healthier and feel fresh come playoff time. The Yankees, on the other hand, had a far greater need with the rash of injuries that have attacked their rotation. When your rotation includes Jeff Karstens and Darrell Rasner, you know times are tough. They needed help now, or face the possibility they won't be in good position to win the AL East come late June. The Yankees are taking on the risk that Clemens will have future leg problems or tire come playoff time in exchange for him helping them right now when their rotation is in shambles. It's actually worth the Yankees doing this, so for once they're not overpaying for something stupid in their rotation (Pavano, Wright, Igawa).
Fantasy Impact: For those who drafted and stashed Roger Clemens, this is what you were waiting for. However, Clemens in the AL East is far less enticing than Clemens in the NL Central as his ERA, WHIP, and K rate will suffer while his chances for wins will increase. That's not a tradeoff us fantasy baseball players want. He isn't going to be posting a sub 3.00 ERA and a sub 1.10 WHIP in the best hitting division in baseball, so I actually suggest selling high unless your fantasy rotation reminds you of the Yankees starting rotation. If you look at this numbers with the Yankees the first time around, I think that's pretty reminiscient of what we'll see now, although it's possible the wins won't be quite so high given he can't work as far into games anymore. See what you can get for him, especially if you can make a deal right now and get full value given he won't be pitching in the majors for roughly another month.
Weekend Action - Papelbon Returns, Peavy Dominates, Josh Hamilton
Jon Papelbon: Well, it seems the concerns about his shoulder can be put to rest, for now. It's always a curious move as to why a rested closer is held out of a save situation, but perhaps it was just fatigue. He returned for 2 saves this weekend throwing the heat we expect from him, so he seems fine for now. Crisis avoided!
Jake Peavy: This guy is just flatout dealing this year. An ERA under 2 and the most Ks in the NL. I would not be surprised at all if he finishes another year with an ERA under 3 and 215+ Ks, assuming his shoulder doesn't act up again. His pitch counts have been managed very well to this point, so continued dominance is likely. Congrats to those of you who drafted him as your ace this year, as he came at a nice discount after the abhoration year he endured last season.
Josh Hamilton: What a story this kid is. 2+ years of missed baseball due to drug abuse, and he returns this year with only a fraction of a season played in A ball late last summer. He's hitting .306 with 8 HRs, 2 SBs, and a handful of Rs and RBIs. Unprecedented production from someone who's had little minor league experience, especially with all the missed time prior to late last year. This just goes to show everyone how insanely talented this kid is. The best approach for him is this: in redraft leagues, wait a bit for him to further establish his numbers, and then sell him high. After missing 2+ years, his body is not conditioned for the 162 game grueling season, and he'll probably start to fade as the season wears on. In keeper leagues, you keep him and stash him on your bench if he starts to falter. You likely drafted him real late after his impressive spring, or you picked him up. If you play in a league like I play in, you'll be keeping this guy for a last round draft choice which is insane value for what he'll be producing once he gets fully acclimated to the major leagues. It's possible he'll keep this up all year, but it's definitely a longshot. If you don't want to deal him in your redraft league and think he'll maintain this, no one would fault you, but I just think his body is a year away from being able to produce consistently for 162 games.
Carlos Zambrano: Bad first inning, great rebound after that on Friday. Your window of buying low on him is closing, although his bad first inning against Washington re-opened it for a minute. He had a stellar outing against St. Louis before, and all-in-all had a very solid outing against Washington as well, save the one bad pitch to Austin Kearns. This is your chance to get a staff ace at a discount. Point to his terrible ratios and try to acquire him. In a league I needed pitching, I traded John Maine and Nick Markakis to get him from an owner that had solid pitching, but a big hole in his OF. That might help provide a benchmark for those of you looking to deal for him. If you own him, stay put. Do not deal him for anything less than he's been worth over the past two seasons.
John Patterson: Well, for those of you still hanging onto hope for him to turn it around, you can officially drop him now. He left his Saturday start early after complaining of bicep soreness, although he officially went on the DL with an elbow ailment. I thought he'd come around after his mediocre spring given he didn't pitch the entire spring, but his velocity was never the same and he eventually admitted to pitching hurt. No reason to hang onto him in any format unless you have a DL spot you don't need.
Bobby Jenks: His velocity remains a bit down, but he's bounced back from a tough spring/early season to bring his ratios back down to reasonable levels, and his K-rate is still strong at a touch over 1 per inning. It looks like he's rounding into form, and while he's not the most reliable closer out there, once Thome returns he should be given more save opportunities. An ERA in the mid-3s with 35 saves and lots of Ks is the most likely scenario.
Daniel Cabrera: God I hate owning this guy. There's no rhyme or reason to his performance as his control is still erratic after a promising spring. He can shut down the best offenses in the league when he's on, or he can walk 5+ guys and give up 6 runs to the weakest offenses when he's off. Considering he's a back-end rotation guy for his owners, I suggest starting him against all but the elite offenses and just take what you can get from him. He's going to rack up the Ks in every outing, so you'll at least be getting something. There's always the chance he'll figure it out and become a dominant starter, but nobody knows when or if that will ever happen.
Fracisco Cordero: Wow, did his owners get a steal on him this season. 12 saves, 0 ERs, and 20 Ks. He's been the most dominant closer in the NL, and just goes to show how erratic the closer position is from a year to year basis. Congrats to those who draft him.
Brandon Webb: 4 more walks. I'm not sure what the problem is, but his 39 K/20 BB ratio is troubling. It's amazing he still has an ERA under 4 given that, but I can't imagine he won't figure it out. As I mentioned before, he had two seasons prior to this where he had figured out his walk problem, so odds are he'll get this straightened out. Hopefully soon.
Mark Teixeira: Buy low opportunity is closed. Over the past 10 days, he's hitting .368 with 4 HRs and 9 RBIs. I'm glad he decided to right this ship before the All-Star break this season.
Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano: Further proof Bobby Cox is playing the matchup game. Yesterday, Soriano entered the 8th to face Garciaparra and Kent, then Gonzalez entered the 9th to face Luis Gonzalez and Ethier. Expect the same to continue until Wickman returns. Both are worth owning, needless to say. Given Cox isn't allowing one guy to step up and shine, it proves Wickman will regain the closer's role when he returns, so his owners need not worry.
Ryan Dempster: Another closer far outperforming his average draft position. He got himself back into shape this offseason, and is pitching very well. I expect him to maintain solid value all season long as the Cubs should provide plenty of save opportunities with the way their starting pitching has been throwing the ball, and the fact their offense should start warming up with the weather.
Zack Greinke: Well, he was a nice story this spring and to start the season, but he's gone way south after his grandparents passed away, with one good outing against Minnesota mixed in. It's a sad story for a pitcher who battled mental problems this past two seasons, and not only do I feel bad for the kid, but I also question his mental ability as a pitcher at this point. He has pretty good stuff, although no dominant out pitch, but he's well worth dropping at this point. Keep an eye on him as his talent hasn't gone anywhere to see if he can get this turned around.
Cole Hamels: He's been good so far, but I think he's still not pitching at the level he could be. He's only 23, so there's plenty of time. His Ks are there, but I think he can still improve his ratios as the season goes on. He has arguably the best changeup outside of Johan Santana.
Brett Myers: Alright, this might be tricky, but I'd suggest attempting to buy low on him right now. If you can find an owner who feels threatened by Tom Gordon's return and thinks Myers is only a short-term closer, make a deal and get him for a discount. He's going to be a great closer, and it appears obvious now that he's going to stay in that role this season. There's no way they moved him into the bullpen to be an 8th inning guy. I strongly feel that Gordon will return to a setup role, one that he also thrives in.
Barry Bonds: He's been an absolute steal so far for his owners. I overlooked his run for the HR record this year, providing him plenty of motivation to stay on top of his game. After he gets the record, I'd try to sell high on him as he'll not only be limited by the weak offense around him, but also by his age and the demands of the long season. If you can get a top flight OF in return for him, jump on it.
Jake Peavy: This guy is just flatout dealing this year. An ERA under 2 and the most Ks in the NL. I would not be surprised at all if he finishes another year with an ERA under 3 and 215+ Ks, assuming his shoulder doesn't act up again. His pitch counts have been managed very well to this point, so continued dominance is likely. Congrats to those of you who drafted him as your ace this year, as he came at a nice discount after the abhoration year he endured last season.
Josh Hamilton: What a story this kid is. 2+ years of missed baseball due to drug abuse, and he returns this year with only a fraction of a season played in A ball late last summer. He's hitting .306 with 8 HRs, 2 SBs, and a handful of Rs and RBIs. Unprecedented production from someone who's had little minor league experience, especially with all the missed time prior to late last year. This just goes to show everyone how insanely talented this kid is. The best approach for him is this: in redraft leagues, wait a bit for him to further establish his numbers, and then sell him high. After missing 2+ years, his body is not conditioned for the 162 game grueling season, and he'll probably start to fade as the season wears on. In keeper leagues, you keep him and stash him on your bench if he starts to falter. You likely drafted him real late after his impressive spring, or you picked him up. If you play in a league like I play in, you'll be keeping this guy for a last round draft choice which is insane value for what he'll be producing once he gets fully acclimated to the major leagues. It's possible he'll keep this up all year, but it's definitely a longshot. If you don't want to deal him in your redraft league and think he'll maintain this, no one would fault you, but I just think his body is a year away from being able to produce consistently for 162 games.
Carlos Zambrano: Bad first inning, great rebound after that on Friday. Your window of buying low on him is closing, although his bad first inning against Washington re-opened it for a minute. He had a stellar outing against St. Louis before, and all-in-all had a very solid outing against Washington as well, save the one bad pitch to Austin Kearns. This is your chance to get a staff ace at a discount. Point to his terrible ratios and try to acquire him. In a league I needed pitching, I traded John Maine and Nick Markakis to get him from an owner that had solid pitching, but a big hole in his OF. That might help provide a benchmark for those of you looking to deal for him. If you own him, stay put. Do not deal him for anything less than he's been worth over the past two seasons.
John Patterson: Well, for those of you still hanging onto hope for him to turn it around, you can officially drop him now. He left his Saturday start early after complaining of bicep soreness, although he officially went on the DL with an elbow ailment. I thought he'd come around after his mediocre spring given he didn't pitch the entire spring, but his velocity was never the same and he eventually admitted to pitching hurt. No reason to hang onto him in any format unless you have a DL spot you don't need.
Bobby Jenks: His velocity remains a bit down, but he's bounced back from a tough spring/early season to bring his ratios back down to reasonable levels, and his K-rate is still strong at a touch over 1 per inning. It looks like he's rounding into form, and while he's not the most reliable closer out there, once Thome returns he should be given more save opportunities. An ERA in the mid-3s with 35 saves and lots of Ks is the most likely scenario.
Daniel Cabrera: God I hate owning this guy. There's no rhyme or reason to his performance as his control is still erratic after a promising spring. He can shut down the best offenses in the league when he's on, or he can walk 5+ guys and give up 6 runs to the weakest offenses when he's off. Considering he's a back-end rotation guy for his owners, I suggest starting him against all but the elite offenses and just take what you can get from him. He's going to rack up the Ks in every outing, so you'll at least be getting something. There's always the chance he'll figure it out and become a dominant starter, but nobody knows when or if that will ever happen.
Fracisco Cordero: Wow, did his owners get a steal on him this season. 12 saves, 0 ERs, and 20 Ks. He's been the most dominant closer in the NL, and just goes to show how erratic the closer position is from a year to year basis. Congrats to those who draft him.
Brandon Webb: 4 more walks. I'm not sure what the problem is, but his 39 K/20 BB ratio is troubling. It's amazing he still has an ERA under 4 given that, but I can't imagine he won't figure it out. As I mentioned before, he had two seasons prior to this where he had figured out his walk problem, so odds are he'll get this straightened out. Hopefully soon.
Mark Teixeira: Buy low opportunity is closed. Over the past 10 days, he's hitting .368 with 4 HRs and 9 RBIs. I'm glad he decided to right this ship before the All-Star break this season.
Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano: Further proof Bobby Cox is playing the matchup game. Yesterday, Soriano entered the 8th to face Garciaparra and Kent, then Gonzalez entered the 9th to face Luis Gonzalez and Ethier. Expect the same to continue until Wickman returns. Both are worth owning, needless to say. Given Cox isn't allowing one guy to step up and shine, it proves Wickman will regain the closer's role when he returns, so his owners need not worry.
Ryan Dempster: Another closer far outperforming his average draft position. He got himself back into shape this offseason, and is pitching very well. I expect him to maintain solid value all season long as the Cubs should provide plenty of save opportunities with the way their starting pitching has been throwing the ball, and the fact their offense should start warming up with the weather.
Zack Greinke: Well, he was a nice story this spring and to start the season, but he's gone way south after his grandparents passed away, with one good outing against Minnesota mixed in. It's a sad story for a pitcher who battled mental problems this past two seasons, and not only do I feel bad for the kid, but I also question his mental ability as a pitcher at this point. He has pretty good stuff, although no dominant out pitch, but he's well worth dropping at this point. Keep an eye on him as his talent hasn't gone anywhere to see if he can get this turned around.
Cole Hamels: He's been good so far, but I think he's still not pitching at the level he could be. He's only 23, so there's plenty of time. His Ks are there, but I think he can still improve his ratios as the season goes on. He has arguably the best changeup outside of Johan Santana.
Brett Myers: Alright, this might be tricky, but I'd suggest attempting to buy low on him right now. If you can find an owner who feels threatened by Tom Gordon's return and thinks Myers is only a short-term closer, make a deal and get him for a discount. He's going to be a great closer, and it appears obvious now that he's going to stay in that role this season. There's no way they moved him into the bullpen to be an 8th inning guy. I strongly feel that Gordon will return to a setup role, one that he also thrives in.
Barry Bonds: He's been an absolute steal so far for his owners. I overlooked his run for the HR record this year, providing him plenty of motivation to stay on top of his game. After he gets the record, I'd try to sell high on him as he'll not only be limited by the weak offense around him, but also by his age and the demands of the long season. If you can get a top flight OF in return for him, jump on it.
Friday, May 4, 2007
J. Shields Breaking Out, Gordon to the DL, and Time To Worry About Papelbon
James Shields: The unlikely breakout candidate that few have heard about. So far Shields has posted 3 Ws, 45 Ks, a 3.74 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. The ERA doesn't match the WHIP, so if Shields can continue to limit his walks and posted a strong BAA, he'll bring that down some. That he's in the AL East will hurt having to face NY, Boston, and Toronto multiple times, but he's added a few MPH to his fastball, and has a devastating changeup, and those added MPH will make his changeup that much better. Expect solid W numbers, a strong K rate, and an ERA under 4 for this kid if he keeps it up.
Tom Gordon/Brett Myers: Tom Gordon heads to the DL with a sore shoulder, so Brett Myers is now Philly's new closer. If someone in your league didn't hang onto him to see what happened with his situation, grab him immediately. Myers had the stuff to be a staff ace, so he most certainly has the stuff to be an ace closer as well. If Myers dominates as a closer, expect Gordon to possibly come back to a setup role. This makes Philly's decision to move him to the bullpen a little easier to swallow, but it was still the wrong move.
Jon Papelbon: Papelbon was held out of a save chance last night despite not working the previous day. It's officially time to worry about the health of his shoulder given this. Mike Timlin is on the DL, so J.C. Romero got the save last night, but he's not a long term answer should Papelbon head to the DL. Keep a close eye on Hideki Okajima as he's already earned a save, and could become the closer should Papelbon miss extended time. Okajima had pitched 3 out of the previous 4 days, so Romero likely only got the call because Okajima needed a day off.
Mike Mussina: Well, I guess I should have started him last night, but it's always best to wait an appearance before activating a hurt pitcher. He threw 5 strong innings last night and looks to be in good health, so he's fine to use from here on out. His return is great news for a Yankees rotation ravaged with injuries.
Mariano Rivera: 2 days and 2 saves, although he did allow 2 hits last night. Now's still a good opportunity to buy low on him, so make sure to point out his ghastly ERA to this point and see if you can land an elite closer at a discount. He seems to be turning the corner.
Moises Alou: He went down again with some sort of ailment, so if you've been using him, get him out of your lineup. Anyone drafting him this season knew he'd be in and out of the lineup, so he's likely a reserve/matchup outfielder anyways. His knee is likely bothering him again, so assume he'll probably miss this weekend's games until something official is announced. He was actually hitting very well until the injury, so he's worth stashing if you have room, especially given the lineup he hits in.
Tom Gordon/Brett Myers: Tom Gordon heads to the DL with a sore shoulder, so Brett Myers is now Philly's new closer. If someone in your league didn't hang onto him to see what happened with his situation, grab him immediately. Myers had the stuff to be a staff ace, so he most certainly has the stuff to be an ace closer as well. If Myers dominates as a closer, expect Gordon to possibly come back to a setup role. This makes Philly's decision to move him to the bullpen a little easier to swallow, but it was still the wrong move.
Jon Papelbon: Papelbon was held out of a save chance last night despite not working the previous day. It's officially time to worry about the health of his shoulder given this. Mike Timlin is on the DL, so J.C. Romero got the save last night, but he's not a long term answer should Papelbon head to the DL. Keep a close eye on Hideki Okajima as he's already earned a save, and could become the closer should Papelbon miss extended time. Okajima had pitched 3 out of the previous 4 days, so Romero likely only got the call because Okajima needed a day off.
Mike Mussina: Well, I guess I should have started him last night, but it's always best to wait an appearance before activating a hurt pitcher. He threw 5 strong innings last night and looks to be in good health, so he's fine to use from here on out. His return is great news for a Yankees rotation ravaged with injuries.
Mariano Rivera: 2 days and 2 saves, although he did allow 2 hits last night. Now's still a good opportunity to buy low on him, so make sure to point out his ghastly ERA to this point and see if you can land an elite closer at a discount. He seems to be turning the corner.
Moises Alou: He went down again with some sort of ailment, so if you've been using him, get him out of your lineup. Anyone drafting him this season knew he'd be in and out of the lineup, so he's likely a reserve/matchup outfielder anyways. His knee is likely bothering him again, so assume he'll probably miss this weekend's games until something official is announced. He was actually hitting very well until the injury, so he's worth stashing if you have room, especially given the lineup he hits in.
Thursday, May 3, 2007
Soriano vs. Gonzalez, Pt 2, Beckett Wins Again, Oliver with 10 Ks?
Rafael Soriano/Mike Gonzalez: Well, round 2 goes to Rafael Soriano as he notched the save last evening. The thing to note here is that Howard and Utley were due up in the 8th inning, so that's where Gonzalez pitched, and then Soriano came in for the 9th and the save. Again, nothing definitive can be taken from this as it was obvious that Gonzalez was better suited to pitch the 8th inning with the tough lefties up. Bobby Cox is a strategic manager, and I believe he's smart enough to understand that matchups are a key part of baseball, and with Wickman out, a committee is the most likely scenario.
Josh Beckett: 6-0 now for this man who's off to a scorching start. Great ratios, great K-rate, and potential finally being fulfilled here. He was a great undervalued pitcher to target in fantasy leagues this year, and he's proving why. Arm/blister problems are always a possibility, but he's not really that much greater of a risk than many star hurlers. He definitely won't keep his ERA under 3, but an ERA under 4 pitching in the AL East with a strong K rate and a high win total will make him very valuable all season long.
Oliver Perez: He unraveled a bit in the 6th inning, but he's bouncing back rather nicely after several lost years. I read he has his velocity back, and it seems like he has his control in check for the most part. He'll never be a pitcher that consistently pitches deep into games, but he has great K potential and has a potent offense supporting him. The occasional blowup will frustrated you such as the 7 walk outing earlier this season, but he's a good matchup pitcher who should be owned in all leagues.
Jhonny Peralta: This man is on fire at the plate, hitting close to .400 with 4 HRs and 12 RBIs over the past week. His batting average is still a bit sub-par thanks to a slow start, but perhaps he can maintain the type of performance we saw from him in 2005. If your SS is off to a slow start and he's still available, grab him.
Alfonso Soriano: 2 days, 2 HRs. Perhaps he's about to go on a major tear, although he's already hitting .300. Kudos to those who bought low or rode out his early cold streak...Alfonso is back.
Josh Beckett: 6-0 now for this man who's off to a scorching start. Great ratios, great K-rate, and potential finally being fulfilled here. He was a great undervalued pitcher to target in fantasy leagues this year, and he's proving why. Arm/blister problems are always a possibility, but he's not really that much greater of a risk than many star hurlers. He definitely won't keep his ERA under 3, but an ERA under 4 pitching in the AL East with a strong K rate and a high win total will make him very valuable all season long.
Oliver Perez: He unraveled a bit in the 6th inning, but he's bouncing back rather nicely after several lost years. I read he has his velocity back, and it seems like he has his control in check for the most part. He'll never be a pitcher that consistently pitches deep into games, but he has great K potential and has a potent offense supporting him. The occasional blowup will frustrated you such as the 7 walk outing earlier this season, but he's a good matchup pitcher who should be owned in all leagues.
Jhonny Peralta: This man is on fire at the plate, hitting close to .400 with 4 HRs and 12 RBIs over the past week. His batting average is still a bit sub-par thanks to a slow start, but perhaps he can maintain the type of performance we saw from him in 2005. If your SS is off to a slow start and he's still available, grab him.
Alfonso Soriano: 2 days, 2 HRs. Perhaps he's about to go on a major tear, although he's already hitting .300. Kudos to those who bought low or rode out his early cold streak...Alfonso is back.
Wednesday, May 2, 2007
Hughes Hurt, Greinke and Burnett Suck, Sabathia Doesn't, Sheets Ks?
Some random player notes:
Phillip Hughes: I think Steinbrenner's deal with the devil has run out. Baseball's top pitching prospect had a no hitter through 6 1/3 only to hear his hamstrinng pop. He'll be out 4-6 weeks, and the Yankees lose yet another starter. Mussina is due back this week, so he'll slide into Hughes' now vacated rotation spot. I read a good analysis elsewhere, and it was stated that it'll be better for his arm in the long run that he's going to miss this much time. Torre might have been motivated to overwork him given the rest of the injuries and struggles in the Yankees rotation, and this will save 4-6 weeks of wear on his arm. Teams always have to be careful when they call up early 20's pitching prospects that aren't used to throwing more than maybe 140 innings or so.
A.J. Burnett: Boy is this guy frustrating or what? His stuff is incredible, but his location and consistency are not. One start removed from shutting out the Yankees for 7 innings, he gets blown up for 7 runs in 5 innings against Cleveland. He did K 7 batters, so he at least contributed something. I think he's best if he is not used against strong offense, especially until he figures out his control issues. He actually might be a decent buy-low candidate because I don't think his control problems will last all season long.
C.C Sabathia: I'm sure owners were furious with 3 HRs in the first inning, but at least they were all solo shots, and he was dominant after that. He should be one of the AL's top 5 pitchers this year, so if there's an owner worried a bit about him for some reason, pounce.
Zack Greinke: Well, the honeymoon period was nice while it lasted. He's just too hittable despite quality stuff, and he doesn't have a go-to strikeout/out pitch. He'll probably be inconsistent for most of the season, and given the weak offense that supports him, he's not worth owning in mixed leagues right now. I thought he'd be a good spot starter in mixed leagues, but getting blown up by Anaheim ruined that theory. It was really only one bad inning, but that seems to be the case more often than not in his starts.
Ben Sheets: Sheets was solid last night, beating a Cardinals team he has historically had problems with. He looks recovered from his groin injury, which is the most important thing. A bothersome trend that's developing is his lack of Ks. Over the last 3 years, he's averaging over a K an inning. This season, however, he's only struck out 16 batters in 36 innings. That's a huge drop, and some cause for concern for his fantasy owners. His strong fantasy value, when healthy, is tied to his bigtime K rate. I haven't read anything that indicates his velocity is down, so it doesn't seem like it's an arm problem, so I'm not sure what the issue is. This bears watching to see if it's just a fluke or the start of a trend. I'm not sure whether to recommend a buy-low, or to stay away.
Matt Holliday: En fuego. Now hitting .395, he looks entrenched as an offensive force for the next several years. Marked as a breakout candidate last season, he came through and it looks like this guy is for real. Hopefully Colorado will keep him in the 3rd spot so that he has Helton's protection.
Russ Ortiz / Tim Lincecum: Russ Ortiz got bombed again, and now sports a 6.44 ERA. Fantasy leagues have been waiting for SF to give Lincecum the call, and I have to imagine it'll be soon now. The Giants can't possibly think that Ortiz will outproduce their top pitching prospect over the rest of the season, even if they decide to limit Lincecum to 5-6 innings per start. If he's unowned, Lincecum is worth stashing now. I don't think he'll provide the same impact to teams that Liriano did last season, but he should be plenty valuable.
Takashi Saito: Many thought he'd take the natural 5 steps back that many Japanese pitchers do after batters have seen them for a year, but he continues to sparkle with a beautiful ERA and K rate. He picked up his first win last night after keeping the score tied at 1 in the 9th. Saito, unlike Takatsu and some others before him, has legit stuff and doesn't rely on deception and offspeed pitches to succeed. He should remain a quality closer the rest of the year barring injury. Sorry, Broxton owners...
Phillip Hughes: I think Steinbrenner's deal with the devil has run out. Baseball's top pitching prospect had a no hitter through 6 1/3 only to hear his hamstrinng pop. He'll be out 4-6 weeks, and the Yankees lose yet another starter. Mussina is due back this week, so he'll slide into Hughes' now vacated rotation spot. I read a good analysis elsewhere, and it was stated that it'll be better for his arm in the long run that he's going to miss this much time. Torre might have been motivated to overwork him given the rest of the injuries and struggles in the Yankees rotation, and this will save 4-6 weeks of wear on his arm. Teams always have to be careful when they call up early 20's pitching prospects that aren't used to throwing more than maybe 140 innings or so.
A.J. Burnett: Boy is this guy frustrating or what? His stuff is incredible, but his location and consistency are not. One start removed from shutting out the Yankees for 7 innings, he gets blown up for 7 runs in 5 innings against Cleveland. He did K 7 batters, so he at least contributed something. I think he's best if he is not used against strong offense, especially until he figures out his control issues. He actually might be a decent buy-low candidate because I don't think his control problems will last all season long.
C.C Sabathia: I'm sure owners were furious with 3 HRs in the first inning, but at least they were all solo shots, and he was dominant after that. He should be one of the AL's top 5 pitchers this year, so if there's an owner worried a bit about him for some reason, pounce.
Zack Greinke: Well, the honeymoon period was nice while it lasted. He's just too hittable despite quality stuff, and he doesn't have a go-to strikeout/out pitch. He'll probably be inconsistent for most of the season, and given the weak offense that supports him, he's not worth owning in mixed leagues right now. I thought he'd be a good spot starter in mixed leagues, but getting blown up by Anaheim ruined that theory. It was really only one bad inning, but that seems to be the case more often than not in his starts.
Ben Sheets: Sheets was solid last night, beating a Cardinals team he has historically had problems with. He looks recovered from his groin injury, which is the most important thing. A bothersome trend that's developing is his lack of Ks. Over the last 3 years, he's averaging over a K an inning. This season, however, he's only struck out 16 batters in 36 innings. That's a huge drop, and some cause for concern for his fantasy owners. His strong fantasy value, when healthy, is tied to his bigtime K rate. I haven't read anything that indicates his velocity is down, so it doesn't seem like it's an arm problem, so I'm not sure what the issue is. This bears watching to see if it's just a fluke or the start of a trend. I'm not sure whether to recommend a buy-low, or to stay away.
Matt Holliday: En fuego. Now hitting .395, he looks entrenched as an offensive force for the next several years. Marked as a breakout candidate last season, he came through and it looks like this guy is for real. Hopefully Colorado will keep him in the 3rd spot so that he has Helton's protection.
Russ Ortiz / Tim Lincecum: Russ Ortiz got bombed again, and now sports a 6.44 ERA. Fantasy leagues have been waiting for SF to give Lincecum the call, and I have to imagine it'll be soon now. The Giants can't possibly think that Ortiz will outproduce their top pitching prospect over the rest of the season, even if they decide to limit Lincecum to 5-6 innings per start. If he's unowned, Lincecum is worth stashing now. I don't think he'll provide the same impact to teams that Liriano did last season, but he should be plenty valuable.
Takashi Saito: Many thought he'd take the natural 5 steps back that many Japanese pitchers do after batters have seen them for a year, but he continues to sparkle with a beautiful ERA and K rate. He picked up his first win last night after keeping the score tied at 1 in the 9th. Saito, unlike Takatsu and some others before him, has legit stuff and doesn't rely on deception and offspeed pitches to succeed. He should remain a quality closer the rest of the year barring injury. Sorry, Broxton owners...
Tuesday, May 1, 2007
Bob Wickman To The DL
The Atlanta Braves have placed closer Bob Wickman on the DL.
This might be closer by committee until he returns. Mike Gonzalez was the closer in Pittsburgh last year, and is a lefty. Rafael Soriano used to be the closer of the future in Seattle until J.J. Putz exploded on the scene, and then was dealt for peanuts this offseason. He's a righty. Last night, Gonzalez got the nod in the 9th inning in a tie game, but both Utley and Howard were due up and are left handed hitters. I have a feeling Gonzalez might get the edge here, but he had elbow problems that shut him down last year, and he's also posted a disgusting WHIP so far this season. Soriano had 2 disasterous outings within 3 appearances earlier this season, but has been dominant since then. I think it'll depend on what hitters are due up in the 9th as to which guy will get to close. For the next save opportunity, keep an eye on who gets the call and which batters he's due to face. If both are available, perhaps you can make a choice by doing that. I'd rather own Soriano because he doesn't walk someone everytime he takes the mound, but if Gonzalez ends up being the favorite for saves, he's the one to own.
This might be closer by committee until he returns. Mike Gonzalez was the closer in Pittsburgh last year, and is a lefty. Rafael Soriano used to be the closer of the future in Seattle until J.J. Putz exploded on the scene, and then was dealt for peanuts this offseason. He's a righty. Last night, Gonzalez got the nod in the 9th inning in a tie game, but both Utley and Howard were due up and are left handed hitters. I have a feeling Gonzalez might get the edge here, but he had elbow problems that shut him down last year, and he's also posted a disgusting WHIP so far this season. Soriano had 2 disasterous outings within 3 appearances earlier this season, but has been dominant since then. I think it'll depend on what hitters are due up in the 9th as to which guy will get to close. For the next save opportunity, keep an eye on who gets the call and which batters he's due to face. If both are available, perhaps you can make a choice by doing that. I'd rather own Soriano because he doesn't walk someone everytime he takes the mound, but if Gonzalez ends up being the favorite for saves, he's the one to own.
Vacation
Well, I just got back from vacation and plan to post on almost a daily basis now. I've gone a while without posting anything, so most of the news I've caught up on when I returned is outdated. At any rate, here's a few random notes:
Henry Owens: Owens has secured the job as the Marlins closer for the forseeable future. He's sporting a solid ERA, WHIP, and a decent K rate, but he HAS to cut down on his walks to maintain success. He's gone 3/4 appearances without walking anyone, so hopefully that's a sign of continued success.
Howie Kendrick: Ouch, I lost my starting 2B on both teams due to a broken finger suffered on a HBP. He'll probably be out for about another month. It's too late to make suggestions to most people, but luckily I had B.J. Upton stashed on one team, and I beat my league on the other team to Kelly Johnson to replace him.
Jim Thome: Strained his rib cage, tried to come back too early, and re-injured it. This time the White Sox are putting him on the DL to give him proper time to heal. Unfortunately us owners will be without his services for the week. I'd look to guys like Aaron Rowand, Chris B. Young (if someone dropped him after his slow start), and Conor Jackson to replace Thome for a few weeks. Wily Mo Pena is also an option while Coco Crisp is hurting.
Felix Hernandez: His owners can breathe a temporary sigh of relief as the King will return on Friday. I would NOT use him in this start for 3 combined reasons: he's coming back from an arm injury, he'll be on a pitch count, and he'll be facing the Yankees. There's absolutely no upside to using him in his first start back unless you like to play russian roulette for fun.
Mike Mussina: He's scheduled to return this week as well, on Thursday in Texas. Considering he hasn't pitched in 20+ days, I wouldn't use him either, even if Texas as a whole is slumping on offense.
Mark Teixeira: Man, he's been frustrating to own the past two years, hasn't he? He's off to another slow start, although had 2 games in a row with a HR followed by 2 hitless games.
Albert Pujols, Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Howard, David Wright, Carlos Zambrano, Erik Bedard, etc: It's April, people. If these guys had 2 normal months followed by their first month of production buried in the middle of the season, trust me, you wouldn't notice. Patience. Slow starts are always more noticeable in the stat lines than a random month of slumping in the middle of the season. Soriano specifically is of note since he twinged his hammy 2 weeks ago or so, but he's already stolen a base since then and has several doubles, so he looks fine. Contact owners of these players and see what type of patience they have with them.
John Maine: Shop him and sell high. He won't maintain this type of performance all season long, obviously, and if you have a Mets fan or someone that believes he's now an elite pitcher and will value him as such in a trade, then make a deal. Now don't get me wrong, he looks like a quality starter and will be a helpful fantasy asset, but his numbers will regress and it's better if you don't have him on your team when that happens. He should still post a mid 3 ERA, great WHIP, and both solid K numbers and wins. If you can get an established stud in a deal back for him, do it.
B.J. Upton: Wow, what a start for this super prospect. If you're in a redraft league, sell high. His all-around game will provide nice fantasy value, but he's hitting way over his head right now with a .365 average. He's posted 27 Ks in 22 games, and that's atrocious. I expect his contact rate to go up, but it won't be til after a slump brings his average down. In a keeper league, you gotta stay pat and hope he posts power numbers and steals while his average comes back down.
Chris B. Young: He had a solid contact rate while his AVG was so low, and the results are starting to show up for this kid. It looks like he's turned the corner and I believe he's a good buy-low candidate, although the 2 HR game last night won't help your cause. He's great as a 3rd OF.
Jeff Francouer: 9 walks already? Crazy! The posterboy of impatience is turning a corner in his young career regarding plate patience, and he's currently hitting .300 as a result. Now I don't know if he'll keep the average up that high, but a progression to at least the .280 range is definitely possible if he keeps this up. Kudos to those of you who drafted him as it appears he won't be a downer on your batting average.
Brandon Webb: Speaking of walks, his are getting annoying. 19 already this season, which would pro-rate to over 100 on the season. After 2 seasons of 59 and 50 walks and great results thanks to this, a month of abhoration is the more likely scenario here. Let's hope that's the case or his ERA plunge won't continue. Aside from that, however, he's pitched very well over his last 3 outings to overcome a rocky start.
Henry Owens: Owens has secured the job as the Marlins closer for the forseeable future. He's sporting a solid ERA, WHIP, and a decent K rate, but he HAS to cut down on his walks to maintain success. He's gone 3/4 appearances without walking anyone, so hopefully that's a sign of continued success.
Howie Kendrick: Ouch, I lost my starting 2B on both teams due to a broken finger suffered on a HBP. He'll probably be out for about another month. It's too late to make suggestions to most people, but luckily I had B.J. Upton stashed on one team, and I beat my league on the other team to Kelly Johnson to replace him.
Jim Thome: Strained his rib cage, tried to come back too early, and re-injured it. This time the White Sox are putting him on the DL to give him proper time to heal. Unfortunately us owners will be without his services for the week. I'd look to guys like Aaron Rowand, Chris B. Young (if someone dropped him after his slow start), and Conor Jackson to replace Thome for a few weeks. Wily Mo Pena is also an option while Coco Crisp is hurting.
Felix Hernandez: His owners can breathe a temporary sigh of relief as the King will return on Friday. I would NOT use him in this start for 3 combined reasons: he's coming back from an arm injury, he'll be on a pitch count, and he'll be facing the Yankees. There's absolutely no upside to using him in his first start back unless you like to play russian roulette for fun.
Mike Mussina: He's scheduled to return this week as well, on Thursday in Texas. Considering he hasn't pitched in 20+ days, I wouldn't use him either, even if Texas as a whole is slumping on offense.
Mark Teixeira: Man, he's been frustrating to own the past two years, hasn't he? He's off to another slow start, although had 2 games in a row with a HR followed by 2 hitless games.
Albert Pujols, Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Howard, David Wright, Carlos Zambrano, Erik Bedard, etc: It's April, people. If these guys had 2 normal months followed by their first month of production buried in the middle of the season, trust me, you wouldn't notice. Patience. Slow starts are always more noticeable in the stat lines than a random month of slumping in the middle of the season. Soriano specifically is of note since he twinged his hammy 2 weeks ago or so, but he's already stolen a base since then and has several doubles, so he looks fine. Contact owners of these players and see what type of patience they have with them.
John Maine: Shop him and sell high. He won't maintain this type of performance all season long, obviously, and if you have a Mets fan or someone that believes he's now an elite pitcher and will value him as such in a trade, then make a deal. Now don't get me wrong, he looks like a quality starter and will be a helpful fantasy asset, but his numbers will regress and it's better if you don't have him on your team when that happens. He should still post a mid 3 ERA, great WHIP, and both solid K numbers and wins. If you can get an established stud in a deal back for him, do it.
B.J. Upton: Wow, what a start for this super prospect. If you're in a redraft league, sell high. His all-around game will provide nice fantasy value, but he's hitting way over his head right now with a .365 average. He's posted 27 Ks in 22 games, and that's atrocious. I expect his contact rate to go up, but it won't be til after a slump brings his average down. In a keeper league, you gotta stay pat and hope he posts power numbers and steals while his average comes back down.
Chris B. Young: He had a solid contact rate while his AVG was so low, and the results are starting to show up for this kid. It looks like he's turned the corner and I believe he's a good buy-low candidate, although the 2 HR game last night won't help your cause. He's great as a 3rd OF.
Jeff Francouer: 9 walks already? Crazy! The posterboy of impatience is turning a corner in his young career regarding plate patience, and he's currently hitting .300 as a result. Now I don't know if he'll keep the average up that high, but a progression to at least the .280 range is definitely possible if he keeps this up. Kudos to those of you who drafted him as it appears he won't be a downer on your batting average.
Brandon Webb: Speaking of walks, his are getting annoying. 19 already this season, which would pro-rate to over 100 on the season. After 2 seasons of 59 and 50 walks and great results thanks to this, a month of abhoration is the more likely scenario here. Let's hope that's the case or his ERA plunge won't continue. Aside from that, however, he's pitched very well over his last 3 outings to overcome a rocky start.
Monday, April 16, 2007
B.J. Ryan Complains Of Sore Elbow
Toronto closer B.J. Ryan compliained of a sore elbow after two disasterous blown saves in his last four appearances.
Sore Elbow + visit to Dr. James Andrews = Bad. This is a deathblow for B.J. Ryan owners who drafted him to be the ace of their bullpen. He's been placed on the 15 day DL for now, and will be examined by Dr. Andrews on Monday. It will be determined later today whether he has ligament damage (which would require Tommy John surgery), or if it's something less severe.
Fantasy Impact: Grab Jason Frasor immediately. He'll be the Blue Jays closer indefinitely while Ryan is out, possibly for the rest of the season if Ryan needs surgery. He's been very effective as a short reliever the past two years outside of a dreadful start last season. He'll post a very strong K/9 and should maintain solid ratios as a closer. Shaun Marcum picked up the save yesterday, but that's because Frasor had thrown 30 pitches the night before and needed the day of rest.
Sore Elbow + visit to Dr. James Andrews = Bad. This is a deathblow for B.J. Ryan owners who drafted him to be the ace of their bullpen. He's been placed on the 15 day DL for now, and will be examined by Dr. Andrews on Monday. It will be determined later today whether he has ligament damage (which would require Tommy John surgery), or if it's something less severe.
Fantasy Impact: Grab Jason Frasor immediately. He'll be the Blue Jays closer indefinitely while Ryan is out, possibly for the rest of the season if Ryan needs surgery. He's been very effective as a short reliever the past two years outside of a dreadful start last season. He'll post a very strong K/9 and should maintain solid ratios as a closer. Shaun Marcum picked up the save yesterday, but that's because Frasor had thrown 30 pitches the night before and needed the day of rest.
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Henry Owens Records Save In Marlins Victory
Well, forget my Taylor Tankersley post from yesterday...it appears that Henry Owens is #2 for saves in the Florida bullpen. Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez said Julio is still his closer, but he'd get Monday off. Hardly a promising sign for Julio's job security, despite what Gonzalez has said. Considering Julio's implosion so far, it's very possible that Owens will have the job sooner than later. He's worth stashing at this point if you have an open roster spot or someone you're waiting to dump. He has a good fastball and an average slider from what I've read, so while it doesn't appear he'll be a dominant closer if given the chance, he did have an impressive spring and has pitched 5 scoreless innings so far in the early going.
In related news, Tankersley has had 2 successful outings in a row in the minors and appears ready to return. This situation will probably become somewhat muddled as it appears Tankersley has the best pure stuff on the relief staff, and he was the favorite prior to injuring himself this spring. The fun of chasing closers is fully underway!
In related news, Tankersley has had 2 successful outings in a row in the minors and appears ready to return. This situation will probably become somewhat muddled as it appears Tankersley has the best pure stuff on the relief staff, and he was the favorite prior to injuring himself this spring. The fun of chasing closers is fully underway!
Monday, April 9, 2007
Carpenter Hurting, Lidge Loses Job
Chris Carpenter: Chris Carpenter went in for an MRI today, and while the doctors didn't see any ligament damage, he was diagnosed with an arthritic elbow and will miss some time. His estimated return is unknown at this time, and this appears to be cause for concern. Carpenter experienced swelling after his initial start, then completely a bullpen session only to have the swelling return. He'll try resting it for a while before throwing again, and this is undoubtedly a disappointment as he was likely the 2nd pitcher picked in most drafts. Carpenter has remained healthy and dominant since coming over from the AL to the Cardinals after battling various ailments and inconsistency in Toronto. However, the long season pitching through the World Series last year could be to blame.
Fantasy Impact: It's always a huge blow when you lose your staff ace, but there's some options out there. I'd suggest Daniel Cabrera, but I'd be shocked if he was unowned after his first two starts. He's always had the pure stuff, but now he seems to have found his control and a better knowledge of how to pitch. I expect some control inconsistency still and thus some ERA/WHIP concerns, but he has the talent to keep this up. He'll post a strong K rate, and the Baltimore offense is good enough to provide him with solid support. You could also look to Zack Greinke. Greinke was a highly touted pitching prospect with a solid 2004 debut before tanking in 2005 and battling unknown personal issues last season. He had a terrific opening start against the powerful Red Sox lineup, and he has the track record and home ballpark to post solid ratios and a solid K rate this year. Wins will be a problem backed by the mediocre KC offense, but wins are always more luck based than anything else and he'll contribute enough elsewhere to be a solid pickup. It'd be best to spot start him before he re-proves himself in rotisserie leagues.
Brad Lidge: Brad Lidge has been officially pulled from the closer's role and will be used earlier in games. After his disasterous 2006 compaign, brutal spring, and terrible 2007 start, this can't be of any surprise. He hasn't lost his stuff and he's not hurt, so it's obviously a mental breakdown. Odds are he'll need a fresh start with another team before possibly re-emerging, but he can't be completely ruled out if he can regain his control.
Fantasy Impact: Dan Wheeler owners rejoice! You now have an extra closer, and given his numbers the past two years (2.36 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 137 Ks in 144 2/3 IP), he'll likely be effective in the closer's role and could maintain the job all year long. He started off with a perfect inning today, and getting that first save down is a great start for his mental approach.
Other Notes:
- Jorge Julio has been brutal in the closer's role for the Marlins so far. It's time to start paying attention to who's favored in the 8th inning to set him up. The Marlins had so many young candidates vying for the closer's role prior to the Julio acquisition that it's hard to speculate on one, but they'd probably favor a healthy return by Taylor Tankersley and want him to become their closer of the future. He'd be the one to stash on your roster at this point if you feel the need to own one of them.
- A-Rod is making those who passed on him early in the first round regret it so far. A league leading 4 HRs and 11 RBIs is pacing MLB in the early going, and it's great to see as a fantasy owner after an offseason filled with trade rumors and turmoil. The game winning grand slam was the most encouraging of all as it'll hopefully snap A-Rod out of his recent clutch failures. He can opt out of his contract at year's end, so he'll be plenty motivated to keep this up all year long.
- Miguel Cabrera is off to a scorching start, but I have to believe the lack of lineup protection behind him will eventually catch up to him. By no means would I trade him unless I were getting a bonafide stud back in the deal, but he'd better hope Willingham and Jacobs continue maturing as hitters so pitchers don't stop pitching to Cabrera all together.
- David Ortiz smacked 2 HRs last night, helping erase memories of his terrible spring/start. He'll be fine for those worried about him.
- I hate Alfonso Soriano so far. 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, but he finally stole his first base today. My one team with him, Teixeira, Blalock, Rios, and Mauer is quite offensive so far, in the wrong sense of the word.
Fantasy Impact: It's always a huge blow when you lose your staff ace, but there's some options out there. I'd suggest Daniel Cabrera, but I'd be shocked if he was unowned after his first two starts. He's always had the pure stuff, but now he seems to have found his control and a better knowledge of how to pitch. I expect some control inconsistency still and thus some ERA/WHIP concerns, but he has the talent to keep this up. He'll post a strong K rate, and the Baltimore offense is good enough to provide him with solid support. You could also look to Zack Greinke. Greinke was a highly touted pitching prospect with a solid 2004 debut before tanking in 2005 and battling unknown personal issues last season. He had a terrific opening start against the powerful Red Sox lineup, and he has the track record and home ballpark to post solid ratios and a solid K rate this year. Wins will be a problem backed by the mediocre KC offense, but wins are always more luck based than anything else and he'll contribute enough elsewhere to be a solid pickup. It'd be best to spot start him before he re-proves himself in rotisserie leagues.
Brad Lidge: Brad Lidge has been officially pulled from the closer's role and will be used earlier in games. After his disasterous 2006 compaign, brutal spring, and terrible 2007 start, this can't be of any surprise. He hasn't lost his stuff and he's not hurt, so it's obviously a mental breakdown. Odds are he'll need a fresh start with another team before possibly re-emerging, but he can't be completely ruled out if he can regain his control.
Fantasy Impact: Dan Wheeler owners rejoice! You now have an extra closer, and given his numbers the past two years (2.36 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 137 Ks in 144 2/3 IP), he'll likely be effective in the closer's role and could maintain the job all year long. He started off with a perfect inning today, and getting that first save down is a great start for his mental approach.
Other Notes:
- Jorge Julio has been brutal in the closer's role for the Marlins so far. It's time to start paying attention to who's favored in the 8th inning to set him up. The Marlins had so many young candidates vying for the closer's role prior to the Julio acquisition that it's hard to speculate on one, but they'd probably favor a healthy return by Taylor Tankersley and want him to become their closer of the future. He'd be the one to stash on your roster at this point if you feel the need to own one of them.
- A-Rod is making those who passed on him early in the first round regret it so far. A league leading 4 HRs and 11 RBIs is pacing MLB in the early going, and it's great to see as a fantasy owner after an offseason filled with trade rumors and turmoil. The game winning grand slam was the most encouraging of all as it'll hopefully snap A-Rod out of his recent clutch failures. He can opt out of his contract at year's end, so he'll be plenty motivated to keep this up all year long.
- Miguel Cabrera is off to a scorching start, but I have to believe the lack of lineup protection behind him will eventually catch up to him. By no means would I trade him unless I were getting a bonafide stud back in the deal, but he'd better hope Willingham and Jacobs continue maturing as hitters so pitchers don't stop pitching to Cabrera all together.
- David Ortiz smacked 2 HRs last night, helping erase memories of his terrible spring/start. He'll be fine for those worried about him.
- I hate Alfonso Soriano so far. 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, but he finally stole his first base today. My one team with him, Teixeira, Blalock, Rios, and Mauer is quite offensive so far, in the wrong sense of the word.
Tuesday, April 3, 2007
Opening Day 2007
I worked from home yesterday to enjoy a day full of baseball on ESPN. My beloved White Sox got spanked, the Cubs looked bad as well, and most aces turned into 9s, or at least posted ERAs in that range. John Patterson, Scott Kazmir, Carlos Zambrano, Curt Schilling, Brandon Webb, Johan Santana, and Eric Bedard all posted less-than-stellar performances. Jose Contreras was beyond atrocious. This isn't all that common as many pitchers are still working on their pitch location, arm angles, and rhythm at this point in the season. Some will also battle the "dead arm" phase as they get themselves back into the pitching routine. It's only one day, and none of these performances are worth worrying about yet. If any of these pitchers post 1 or 2 more performances in a row like they did yesterday, then you might want to start paying attention. My ERA/WHIP in the league that I have Webb, Schilling, and Patterson is looking pretty sweet right now.
On the other hand, Ben Sheets and Felix Hernandez were brilliant yesterday. Sheets offered up a 2 hitter and retired 22 straight batters at one point yesterday. If he stays healthy, he's one of two pitchers (Rich Harden as well) that can stay with Johan Santana in the stats columns. I picked Brandon Webb over him, and I'm curious to see how that pans out. I know Webb was the no brainer pick over Sheets, but Sheets' injury history is a bit misleading. After breaking through in 2004, he spent time on the DL in 2005 with an ear infection, then had shoulder surgery at the end of the year. In 2006 he wasn't fully recovered, and spent more DL time recovering from that surgery. He closed very strong in 2006, enjoyed a healthy offseason, and was a good value this year according to his ADP. He's really only had one major injury, so calling him injury-prone is stretching it. Unfortunately he was taken too high in both of my drafts (went right after my selection of Peavy in my first, and he went right after my selection of Webb in my second).
Felix Hernandez was another great value this season, and he started off strong, with 8 shutout innings and 12 Ks. He threw 111 pitches yesterday, and that's worth monitoring. The Mariners last season rarely allowed him to pass the 100 pitch count. Rumor has it that they will take the gloves off a bit more this season, but given he's still only 20 years old, they have to be careful. If he continues to throw 110+ pitches in the first half, he'll become a strong sell high candidate. Obviously this is only one game and he was dealing yesterday, but it's worth mentioning for someone this young.
No big hitting outputs yesterday, although it was nice to see A-Rod hit a late game HR from a fantasy perspective. If he can get past his struggles in close games, he'll post a stat line much closer to 2005 than 2006. Given he can opt out of his contract at season's end, he's playing for money this year, and that's always a good thing.
B.J. Upton went 2-4 and stole a base while starting at 2B. If he can find a permanent home there, he's going to provide some nice value at 2B this season. He's a 15/40 threat, and if he can hit consistently, he'll be bumped up in the rotation. The #2 spot would be great, but it's nice that they're starting him hitting 9th to allow him to find his groove first. A hot start will cement him in their lineup this season, which is what all his fantasy owners are hoping for.
Brad Lidge blew another save, giving up a 9th innning HR to Xavier Nady. Dan Wheeler owners are smiling, and if no one is a Dan Wheeler owner in your league, become him. He's going to be closing for Houston pretty soon...Garner's not going to give Lidge the same leash he had last season. Albert Pujols has ruined many a pitcher's day, but he just might have ruined Lidge's career with that 2005 NLCS moonshot HR that hasn't landed yet. It didn't help that light hitting Scott Podsednik added one of his own later in the 2005 WS.
On the other hand, Ben Sheets and Felix Hernandez were brilliant yesterday. Sheets offered up a 2 hitter and retired 22 straight batters at one point yesterday. If he stays healthy, he's one of two pitchers (Rich Harden as well) that can stay with Johan Santana in the stats columns. I picked Brandon Webb over him, and I'm curious to see how that pans out. I know Webb was the no brainer pick over Sheets, but Sheets' injury history is a bit misleading. After breaking through in 2004, he spent time on the DL in 2005 with an ear infection, then had shoulder surgery at the end of the year. In 2006 he wasn't fully recovered, and spent more DL time recovering from that surgery. He closed very strong in 2006, enjoyed a healthy offseason, and was a good value this year according to his ADP. He's really only had one major injury, so calling him injury-prone is stretching it. Unfortunately he was taken too high in both of my drafts (went right after my selection of Peavy in my first, and he went right after my selection of Webb in my second).
Felix Hernandez was another great value this season, and he started off strong, with 8 shutout innings and 12 Ks. He threw 111 pitches yesterday, and that's worth monitoring. The Mariners last season rarely allowed him to pass the 100 pitch count. Rumor has it that they will take the gloves off a bit more this season, but given he's still only 20 years old, they have to be careful. If he continues to throw 110+ pitches in the first half, he'll become a strong sell high candidate. Obviously this is only one game and he was dealing yesterday, but it's worth mentioning for someone this young.
No big hitting outputs yesterday, although it was nice to see A-Rod hit a late game HR from a fantasy perspective. If he can get past his struggles in close games, he'll post a stat line much closer to 2005 than 2006. Given he can opt out of his contract at season's end, he's playing for money this year, and that's always a good thing.
B.J. Upton went 2-4 and stole a base while starting at 2B. If he can find a permanent home there, he's going to provide some nice value at 2B this season. He's a 15/40 threat, and if he can hit consistently, he'll be bumped up in the rotation. The #2 spot would be great, but it's nice that they're starting him hitting 9th to allow him to find his groove first. A hot start will cement him in their lineup this season, which is what all his fantasy owners are hoping for.
Brad Lidge blew another save, giving up a 9th innning HR to Xavier Nady. Dan Wheeler owners are smiling, and if no one is a Dan Wheeler owner in your league, become him. He's going to be closing for Houston pretty soon...Garner's not going to give Lidge the same leash he had last season. Albert Pujols has ruined many a pitcher's day, but he just might have ruined Lidge's career with that 2005 NLCS moonshot HR that hasn't landed yet. It didn't help that light hitting Scott Podsednik added one of his own later in the 2005 WS.
Wednesday, March 28, 2007
Mauer OK, Sabathia Not So Much
Joe Mauer: Mauer was diagnosed with a possible stress reaction in his leg, which is the pre-cursor to a stress fracture, which obviously would have sidelined him for some time, especially as a catcher. Luckily the Twins caught it early and it appears to be be nothing as he slugged a HR and a double in a spring training game this morning, along with catching 3 innings.
On a side note concerning Mauer, I feel he's being overrated in drafts as a 2nd and 3rd round pick. There's no question that he's got the skills to be the best fantasy catcher in all of baseball with .320, 100 R, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 10 SB potential, but that's likely his career season, and even then a 2nd round pick on those numbers is stretching it. He must post those numbers to justify taking him where he's going. Position scarcity definitely increases the value of players like Jose Reyes (who's basically Carl Crawford at SS), Chase Utley, and Joe Mauer, but when you draft, you have to understand that taking Joe Mauer in the 2nd round over a player like Travis Hafner is just dumb. Hafner is going to give you .300/100/40/110 pretty much guaranteed, and that's a much wiser investment. If you still have a draft coming up and want Mauer, keep an eye on who else is available and don't pass up bigger, more guaranteed numbers at another position just to have the best catcher. His best value is when he's being drafted right before guys slated to post similar or slightly superior numbers at other deeper positions, not when he's being taken ahead of guys that will post similar to superior numbers to his projected career season.
C.C. Sabathia: Sabathia took a line drive off of his left wrist (his pitching wrist) in a spring training game today. There's no prognosis on his injury as of yet. If you've already drafted him you can hope for the best, but if you haven't drafted yet, I'd drop him in your tier a bit in case he's forced to miss potentially significant time.
On a side note concerning Mauer, I feel he's being overrated in drafts as a 2nd and 3rd round pick. There's no question that he's got the skills to be the best fantasy catcher in all of baseball with .320, 100 R, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 10 SB potential, but that's likely his career season, and even then a 2nd round pick on those numbers is stretching it. He must post those numbers to justify taking him where he's going. Position scarcity definitely increases the value of players like Jose Reyes (who's basically Carl Crawford at SS), Chase Utley, and Joe Mauer, but when you draft, you have to understand that taking Joe Mauer in the 2nd round over a player like Travis Hafner is just dumb. Hafner is going to give you .300/100/40/110 pretty much guaranteed, and that's a much wiser investment. If you still have a draft coming up and want Mauer, keep an eye on who else is available and don't pass up bigger, more guaranteed numbers at another position just to have the best catcher. His best value is when he's being drafted right before guys slated to post similar or slightly superior numbers at other deeper positions, not when he's being taken ahead of guys that will post similar to superior numbers to his projected career season.
C.C. Sabathia: Sabathia took a line drive off of his left wrist (his pitching wrist) in a spring training game today. There's no prognosis on his injury as of yet. If you've already drafted him you can hope for the best, but if you haven't drafted yet, I'd drop him in your tier a bit in case he's forced to miss potentially significant time.
Monday, March 26, 2007
Florida Marlins Trade For Jorge Julio
The Florida Marlins traded SP Yusmeiro Petit to the Arizona Diamondbacks for RP Jorge Julio.
Julio was Arizona's closer last season between Valverde's implosion/demotion and then his promotion back to the majors. After his excellent 2002 season as a setup man/closer for the Orioles, he's progressively gotten worse, although his numbers last year in Arizona were the best since his 2002 season. He's a big strikeout guy, but he's also a big walk guy as well, and he's not exactly a reliable reliever. He's been officially declared as the Marlins' closer.
Fantasy Impact: Go ahead and pick him up as a closer, but don't expect great numbers. He should have fairly good job security until Taylor Tankersley gets healthy, and then it'll depend on how he's pitching versus how Tankersley is pitching as far as who ends the season as Florida's closer. Florida's bigger ballpark might help aid his numbers a bit over last season, and there's a chance he could emerge as a middle tier closer this season. I just wouldn't bet a high waiver priority or a quality hitter/pitcher on it.
Julio was Arizona's closer last season between Valverde's implosion/demotion and then his promotion back to the majors. After his excellent 2002 season as a setup man/closer for the Orioles, he's progressively gotten worse, although his numbers last year in Arizona were the best since his 2002 season. He's a big strikeout guy, but he's also a big walk guy as well, and he's not exactly a reliable reliever. He's been officially declared as the Marlins' closer.
Fantasy Impact: Go ahead and pick him up as a closer, but don't expect great numbers. He should have fairly good job security until Taylor Tankersley gets healthy, and then it'll depend on how he's pitching versus how Tankersley is pitching as far as who ends the season as Florida's closer. Florida's bigger ballpark might help aid his numbers a bit over last season, and there's a chance he could emerge as a middle tier closer this season. I just wouldn't bet a high waiver priority or a quality hitter/pitcher on it.
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