AFC Pre-Preseason RB Situations

AFC East

Buffalo Bills - The Bills sent McGahee packing after 2 subpar seasons and a lot of complaining, replacing him with rookie Marshawn Lynch from the University of California. Lynch is a talented youngster with good burst, but doesn't have great long speed. He's also an above-average receiver, but his blocking technique will need work at the professional level. He was never the primary ball carrier of his college team, so his durability is also a concern. Dick Jauron has also said that he wants to use a committee this season, mixing in Anthony Thomas and rookie Dwayne Wright, whom the coaching staff likes. Both Thomas and Wright are powerful runners, while Lynch has a bit more elusiveness. Wright could emerge as the favorite for short yardage and goal-line situations in camp. This battle is one to watch in the preseason in an attempt to figure out how this will shake out, but Lynch has to be considered the favorite to start and could emerge as the primary ball carrier. Buffalo still did nothing to improve the WR situation outside of Evans, but Losman and Evans both took big steps forward last year and should continue to work well enough together to move the ball somewhat. Expect Thomas to be phased out as the rookies learn the pro game.

Starter - Marshawn Lynch
Backup - Anthony Thomas / Dwayne Wright
Goal-Line - Lynch / Wright
3rd Down - Anthony Thomas

Miami Dolphins - Ronnie Brown emerged as a popular middle 1st round pick last year due to the Ricky Williams suspension, but thanks to Culpepper's disasterous start to the season, Harrington's erratic play, a poor showing by the offensive line, and a broken hand, Brown's season went into the toilet. He finished strong after the broken hand with 2 100 yard games, though. Culpepper is gone, Trent Green is here to stabilize the passing game, and the Dolphins hired former San Diego offensive coordinator Cam Cameron to be their new head coach. Cameron retained offensive line guru Hudson Houck, so that is good news for improved offensive line play. Brown remains a very talented all-around back who has been held back by one thing or another. A key will be Green's ability to stay healthy and lead an underachieving group of WRs down the field this year to balance out the offensive attack. The offensive line will have to block effectively for Green to succeed. Brown's durability also remains a question. However, combining Cameron's offensive knowledge from using Tomlinson for years along with Houck's ability to get great offensive line play out of less-than-great offensive lineman, there's a good chance that Brown finally puts it all together this year. The Dolphins also drafted a talented Lorenzo Booker, but he's no threat to Brown's job and should provide a very explosive change of pace, and he'll also get some work on 3rd downs.

Starter - Ronnie Brown
Backup - Lorenzo Booker
Goal-Line - Brown
3rd Down - Brown / Booker

New England Patriots - The sulky Corey Dillon was released this offseason, making Laurence Maroney the unquestioned starter heading into this year. Maroney flashed a lot of talent last year, both being able to break tackles and be elusive at the same time. He also catches the ball well, showing that he's one of the better young all-around RBs in the league. Maroney is recovering from offseason shoulder surgery, and while he's not rumored to be 100% yet, he should be by the time training camp hits, or shortly thereafter. The New England offense loves to spread it around, but Maroney will get all the goal-line touches given to RBs, and Dillon racked up a huge season in this offense back in 2004 when he was healthy. Maroney has a lot of upside here, and only durability remains his question. NE retained Sammy Morris, a reliable backup, and Kevin Faulk, a versatile 3rd down threat.

Starter - Laurence Maroney
Backup - Sammy Morris
Goal-Line - Maroney
3rd Down - Maroney / Kevin Faulk

New York Jets - The Jets moved down in the 2nd round of the draft to acquire Thomas Jones, and it should end up being a great trade for them. It was a very cheap way for them to acquire a reliable running back that they desparately needed after losing out in their bid to move up for Reggie Bush during the 2006 NFL draft. Thomas Jones is coming off 3 very nice seasons in Chicago that allowed him to show off his talent. He's a tough runner with solid elusiveness, although he doesn't have breakaway speed. He's also a great receiver out of the backfield and a good goal-line back. He's a perfect fit for this blue collar offense. The Jets are also high on 2nd year man Leon Washington, who possesses breakaway speed and solid pass catching skills as well. They'll mix and match here, but expect Jones to get 250+ carries as the primary RB. He doesn't have a lot of upside, but he should be a quality runningback all season long. His value should be similar to what is was in Chicago.

Starter - Thomas Jones
Backup - Leon Washington
Goal-Line - Jones
3rd Down - Jones / Washington

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens gave up on Jamal Lewis after 2 straight subpar seasons, opting to trade for a younger workhorse in Willis McGahee. McGahee is coming off 2 straight subpar seasons himself, finally talking his way out of Buffalo. He burst onto the scene in 2004 with a huge season after Travis Henry struggled, posting massive numbers in a quality offense. Once the Losman experiment started, he was stuck behind a bad offensive line with a QB playing poorly. His dislike for Buffalo increased, and he didn't put forth his best effort. Last year he started strong, got hurt, and then seemingly lost interest when he returned and didn't close well. Baltimore thinks they can revive him, traded for him, and gave him a big contract extension. He will be in the best situation of his career this season. The offensive line in Baltimore isn't dominant like it once was, but it's still a quality line and McNair knows how to lead an offense. Mason, Clayton, and Heap form a solid passing game. There's no excuses for him not to get it done this year, and he's shown better commitment by attending all offseason activities. Perhaps he's afraid Ray Lewis will stab him. Talented but often-injured Musa Smith will take 3rd down duties, and Mike Anderson remains as a reliable backup and veteran mentor.

Starter - Willis McGahee
Backup - Mike Anderson
Goal-Line - McGahee
3rd Down - Musa Smith

Cincinnati Bengals - Rudi Johnson suffered through his least productive year since Corey Dillon left town, struggling with a career low 3.8 YPC. Part of it had to do with the poor offensive line play, which also affected Carson Palmer's season as well. Expect the offensive line play to pick back up this year, even though they lost talented guard Eric Steinbach to free agency. Bookends Levi Jones and Willie Anderson are very talented, and they'll kick in 2nd year man Andrew Whitworth to guard this year, and he could prove to be a mauling run blocker. Their offense remains as explosive as any in football. Chris Perry is no longer much of an option for the team as he continually battles one ailment or another, but they did draft Kenny Irons, who seems to be the heir apparent to Johnson. Rudi is still the unquestioned starter, but if he struggles again this season, expect Irons to start taking some carries away. He's no option in the passing game, but he'll put up enough yards and TDs to be remain the steady fantasy option that he usually is. With Perry constantly injured, Cincy will use Kenny Watson on passing downs again, just like last season.

Starter - Rudi Johnson
Backup - Kenny Irons
Goal-Line - Johnson
3rd Down - Kenny Watson

Cleveland Browns - The Browns suffered through another season without a talented RB, so they aimed low in free agency and signed Jamal Lewis. Lewis claims he's finally healthy this offseason, but he stated the same last season and put together a very pedestrian season. His long speed is long gone, and he doesn't break tackles like he used to. Any sort of career rejuvenation can be thrown out the window, especially given the uncertain QB situation hampering the offense. The talent behind him is almost as equally uninteresting, with youngsters Jason Wright and Jerome Harrison. There just isn't much to like here.

Starter - Jamal Lewis
Backup - Jason Wright / Jerome Harrison
Goal-Line - Lewis
3rd Down - Harrison

Pittsburgh Steelers - Fast Willie Parker can add "Tough" to his moniker, if he so chooses. Parker received 337 carries last season with Jerome Bettis gone, and responded with a monster season, proving to be the 2nd best value at RB last season behind Frank Gore. New coach Mike Tomlin loves Parker's skills, and wants to utilize him more in space to make better use of his speed. Pittsburgh will remain a smashmouth, run-first offense, but expect them to open up the offense a bit. Parker's receiving skills stand to improve as well, especially with screen and flat passes to get him into open space. There is a major red flag, and that was the 5 goal-line fumbles that Parker suffered through last year. He needs to show improved ball security near paydirt or he will lose his role as the goal-line back. I expect him to do so. Najeh Davenport remains as the primary backup, but will face competition from Kevan Barlow. That's worth monitoring in the preseason so Parker owners know who to handcuff him with, if they so choose.

Starter - Willie Parker
Backup - Davenport / Barlow
Goal-Line - Parker
3rd Down - Parker / Verron Haynes

AFC South

Houston Texans - Much like Cleveland before them, Houston aimed low in free agency to fix their RB issue, signing veteran Ahman Green. Green had a great 3 game stretch after returning from injury starting in week 7 last year, but outside of that he wasn't overly impressive and started losing time to Vernand Morency as the season went on. Former Packers coach Mike Sherman, now an assistant with Houston, knows Green well and will understand how to use him effectively. Green is still a very good receiver out of the backfield. He should get most of the carries with only Ron Dayne behind him on the depth chart, but he has major injury question marks and the Texans offensive line hasn't been good since they started as a franchise. The addition of Matt Schaub should help as he should add a vertical element to the offense, assuming he can stay upright.

Starter - Ahman Green
Backup - Ron Dayne
Goal-Line - Green
3rd Down - Green

Indianapolis Colts - The Colts let Dominic Rhodes go in the offseason, handing over the backfield duties to multi-talented Joseph Addai. Addai was everything the Colts thought he would be last year, impressing at almost every facet of the game, and given that, they didn't need Rhodes anymore. Addai ran hard, has good elusiveness, good speed, can break tackles, and catches the ball well. He's also an excellent blocker. The only problem he had was his goal-line conversions, which is obviously crucial to his fantasy success. Edgerrin James had goal-line conversion problems as well in Indy, although you wouldn't know it by his TD numbers. Perhaps they're just not beefy enough up front to smash mouths down by the paydirt, but expect Addai to improve in that area. Combining that with how Manning loves to throw near the goal-line, and he might be a tad disappoitning in his TD totals depending on how things unfold. He'll have plenty of chances, I figure. His backups are little known DeDe Dorsey and Kenton Keith, so he has very little competition for playing time. They'll be mixed in for different looks, but Addai is the unquestioned starter and will receive the majority of the touches.

Starter - Joseph Addai
Backup - DeDe Dorsey / Kenton Keith
Goal-Line - Addai
3rd Down - Addai

Jacksonville Jaguars - In a talented RB rookie class, Maurice Jones-Drew was probably the most impressive one of all. Despite this, the Jaguars re-signed Fred Taylor to a contract extension and he's the heavy favorite to remain the starter. Taylor had a big year last season, averaging 5.0 YPC for the first time in his career while splitting snaps with Jones-Drew. Taylor still has an impressive size/speed combination along with great moves, and still remains very effective. Jones-Drew is still a year away from being a fantasy star, but Taylor does remain a health risk. This situation reminds me a lot of KC's Holmes/Johnson situation a few years ago, although Taylor is a bit less of an injury risk than Priest Holmes despite the reputation. Taylor is the veteran starter still going strong, while Jones-Drew is one of the most talented backups in the league given the situation. Taylor will receive at least 50% of the carries, with Jones-Drew getting plenty as well, along with the work on 3rd downs and the goal-line. There's a chance Jones-Drew will get more carries down the stretch depending on what the Jaguars do with Taylor after the year, who won't be hard to cut. Greg Jones returns this year, but with Jones-Drew so adept at scoring, there isn't much left for him to do.

Starter - Fred Taylor
Backup - Maurice Jones-Drew
Goal-Line - Jones-Drew
3rd Down - Jones-Drew

Tennessee Titans - The Titans drafted LenDale White in the 2006 draft, but he lived up to his reputation at USC as an underachiever who lacked a work ethic. White was often overweight, and he battled leg injuries almost all season long, presumably due to a lack of proper conditioning. He is a very talented and strong runner, but his work ethic, and thus his durability, is a major concern. He's currently slated to be the starter, but has a ton to prove. If he has an impressive preseason, he could be a sleeper. The Titans re-signed Chris Brown, presumably for a veteran presence and also to take the work on 3rd downs. They also drafted Chris Henry from Arizona, who was a workout wonder with an impressive size/speed combination. Henry was never the primary RB at Arizona, so he's a fairly unknown commodity. Much is left to be determined via the preseason.

Starter - LenDale White
Backup - Chris Brown / Chris Henry
Goal-Line - White
3rd Down - Brown

AFC West

Denver Broncos - After 3 relatively failed seasons in Denver, Tatum Bell was traded to the Lions, and they signed free agent Travis Henry. Denver has never been about expensive RBs due to the very successful system they've been using for over 10 years, so while the rumors about McGahee were exciting from a fantasy football perspective, they weren't logical given Denver's strategy. That all being said, Henry is a great fit for Denver's one-cut system. Henry had a couple big seasons in Buffalo, disappeared due to injuries, but then revived his career last year once healthy and had a big season in Tennessee. Henry is a solid workhorse and should enjoy a very good season in Denver, but he doesn't catch the ball that well and his receiving numbers will remain unimpressive. Still, given his fit for Denver's system, he should put up plenty of rushing yards and score enough to be a very good fantasy running back. Mike Bell remains as the steady, but unspectacular backup who can produce if given a chance. Henry will receive most of the carries as long as he's healthy. He has a history over the past couple years of being banged up, so his durability is a slight concern.

Starter - Travis Henry
Backup - Mike Bell
Goal-Line - Henry
3rd Down - Bell

Kansas City Chiefs - They have a guy named Larry Johnson, perhaps you've heard of him. Johnson had a big season last year, showing incredible power blended with good speed to run over tacklers at will at pick up a ton of yards. He's also an accomplished receiver and is a factor in the passing game. LJ posted a soild 4.3 YPC last year, and racked up big numbers thanks to a record-breaking 416 carries. The history of RBs the season after a 375 carry season isn't good, but LJ barely carried the ball against Indy in the playoffs, so his postseason workload isn't an issue and he had a full offseason to recover. He's also logged less career carries than many of those previous RBs who hit the 375 mark, and is a bit younger. Still, after all that being said, the number 416 is ominous and it's very much a concern. Not only that, but Johnson lost future HOF lineman Willie Roaf to retirement after the 2005 season, offensive guru coach Dick Vermeil after the 2005 season, and future HOF lineman Will Shields to retirement after the 2006 season. Don't be fooled, this is not the same dominant KC line that they've had the past few seasons, and they didn't run the same offense last year as in year's past. Factor that in with coach Edwards favoring 2nd year man Brodie Croyle (he of 7 career NFL passes) as the starting QB, and LJ's going to have his work cut out for him to reach last season's numbers. Michael Bennett remains, but he'll likely be replaced by Kolby Smith as the primary backup. Watch preseason to see if that does indeed develop.

There's been rumors of GB wanting to trade for Johnson, and that would revive his somewhat deflated fantasy value. However, preseason trades are extremely hard to pull off, and I don't know if GB has the cap space necessary to sign LJ to the long term deal that he desires. He's threatening to hold out, but the list of players that actually follow through on those threats is far smaller than those who eventually play. Still, it's a slight possibility.

Starter - Larry Johnson
Backup - Michael Bennett / Kolby Smith
Goal-Line - Johnson
3rd Down - Johnson

Oakland Raiders - This team last year was one of the biggest fantasy wastelands in recent memory. LaMont Jordan was stuck in a horribly dated offense that had no idea how to use the talent it had. He had one big game against the Dolphins, but outside of that he either didn't get many carries, or he just wasn't effective. He struggled with a back injury for a while, and then a torn MCL ended his season. Art Shell and his staff were let go, and the Raiders hired former USC offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin to take his place. Kiffin will without question improve the offense, but it remains to be seen how much he can in 1 offseason. The Raiders signed Dominic Rhodes, who had a very solid close to the season last year, including running very well in the playoffs. However, Rhodes was suspended for the first 4 games of the season for violating the league's substance abuse program. Oakland also drafted the talented Michael Bush from Louisville despite concerns about his recovery from a broken leg, but it doesn't appear that Bush will be healthy to start the season. Jordan will be the unquestioned starter for the first 4 games, and his performance will likely dictate what role Rhodes will have when he returns from suspension, and also what role Bush will have if he becomes healthy at some point this season. Jordan is still a talented back, and despite being 28 years old, he doesn't have a lot of tread on his tires. He should be productive, and a team willing to utilize his receiving skills along with his powerful running style will reap those rewards. Hopefully Kiffin will be that kind of coach, and if so, Jordan will return to fantasy relevance. If the offensive line play improves under the new coaching staff and Jordan can stay healthy, he will be in for a nice rebound season.

Starter - LaMont Jordan
Backup - Dominic Rhodes
Goal-Line - Jordan
3rd Down - Jordan

San Diego Chargers - LaDainian Tomlinson is already one of the best RBs to play the game. He's durable, breaks tackles, has breakaway speed, is one of the best receiving backs of all-time, and has an incredible nose for the endzone. He now holds the record with 29 total TDs in one season. LT will be back as fantasy's #1 back, and for good reason. Eventually his career workload will catch up to him, but he's shown no signs of slowing down yet, even showing increased big play ability last season over the previous year. He even throws for a TD or two. The Chargers lost former offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, but they signed Norv Turner to replace him, who's probably the most fantasy RB-friendly offensive coordinator in the game today. Turner helped LaMont Jordan have a breakthrough 2005 season, and then did the same for Frank Gore in 2006. The offense remains, Phillip Rivers will be a year better, and Michael Turner is back as one of the best backups in the NFL. There's no reason not to love LT heading into 2007, although expecting a repeat 29 TD season would be foolish. Expect him to drop back to around 15 or so, perhaps finishing with as many as 20. I also expect the coaching staff to use Michael Turner more frequently as well to keep LT fresh and utilize Turner's skills.

Starter - LaDainian Tomlinson
Backup - Michael Turner
Goal-Line - Tomlinson
3rd Down - Tomlinson