NFC East
Dallas Cowboys - This will be a committee of some sort this year as it stands right now. It seemed obvious watching the Cowboys last year that Marion Barber was the better back, but
apparently the new coaching staff disagrees and they'll continue to utilize both RBs in some fashion. It seems likely that Barber will gain more carries than last year, and if so, he'll be the more valuable RB seeing as though he'll likely be the preferred option at the goalline. Preseason might unveil some of what the Cowboys plan to do, so be sure to check the boxscores and see if it's closer to a 50/50 split this year. Jones had 267 carries to Barber's 136 carries last year. Both are pending free agents, so both will be plenty motivated.
Starter - Julius Jones / Marion Barber III
Backup - Tyson Thompson
Goal-line - Barber
3rd Down - Barber
New York Giants - Brandon Jacobs is the unquestioned starter for the Giants this year, with Reuben Droughns being utilized in a backup capacity. Droughns is a well-rounded back, so he'll probably be used some on 3rd downs, but expect Jacobs to approach 300 carries this season. Hopefully be utilized a bit more in the passing game. He definitely wasn't a liability in the passing game last year, and obviously has the size to be able to block effectively. The only knock against Jacobs is that this will be his first time carrying the entire load, so his durability is a concern since he hasn't proven it yet at this level. Many RBs that carry the load for the first time get banged up by the end of the season, especially a punishing runner like Jacobs. Expect him to slow down some as the year progresses.
Starter - Brandon Jacobs
Backup - Reuben Droughns
Goal-line - Jacobs
3rd Down - Droughns, but Jacobs could prove worthy
Philadelphia Eagles - Brian Westbrook showed what he could do given a full RB's load last year, finishing 2007 with 1217 rushing yards and 7 rushing TDs along with his stellar work in the passing game. He still has some slight durability concerns, and rookie Tony Hunt might steal some short yardage/goal-line work, but he's the man here. Tony Hunt, assuming he doesn't disappoint in the preseason, will most likely assume the top backup position. Correll Buckhalter might be fighting for a roster spot, especially given his history of knee injuries. Once-promising youngster Ryan Moats seems to be an after-thought.
Starter - Brian Westbrook
Backup - Tony Hunt
Goal-line - Westbrook / Hunt
3rd Down - Westbrook
Washington Redskins - Fantasy nation will be paying the most attention to this situation. Clinton Portis is coming back from a separated shoulder he suffered in the preseason last year making a tackle, a broken hand that ended his season early, and then struggled with knee tendonitis in the summer. He also had shoulder surgery to fix the separated shoulder this offseason as well. He participated in some minicamp work, so that's good news about his knee. Ladell Betts exploded onto the scene, posting 5 100 yard games and a 92 yard game to end the season along with 4 TDs and solid receiving numbers. If Portis is healthy, he's the man, but Betts has earned a bigger role. If Portis doesn't recover, Betts is a top 10 back. Portis is a boom/bust pick, and Betts is one of the most valuable backups in the league.
Starter - Clinton Portis
Backup - Ladell Betts
Goal-line - Portis / Betts
3rd Down - Betts
NFC North
Chicago Bears - Goodbye Thomas Jones, hello Cedric Benson. Cedric Benson is the unquestioned starting RB, at least by team officials. Fans remain unconvinced, and so does the fantasy nation. He remains a tough, talented RB with decent speed and he's quicker than he looks. However, he has liabilities in the passing game, both as a receiver and a blocker. He also has some durability issues, suffering various injuries as a backup and committee member. The Bears love to run, so he'll get plenty of touches, assuming he holds up. Adrian Peterson remains a very unheralded backup, but the Bears drafted NIU's Garrett Wolfe in the 3rd round, who the coaching staff gushed about, saying he was the most complete back in the draft other than OU's Adrian Peterson. The preseason will likely tell us who Benson's handcuff will be, with Wolfe having the upper hand.
Starter - Cedric Benson
Backup - Garrett Wolfe / Adrian Peterson
Goal-line - Benson
3rd Down - Peterson, because I can't imagine a rookie like Wolfe will be trusted with blocking
Detroit Lions - Kevin Jones is the starter for this team, but thanks to the Lisfranc fracture he suffered last season, his status to begin the year is in doubt. The Lions added both Tatum Bell and T.J. Duckett in the offseason to protect them against the questionable health of Jones. Odds are that Jones will begin the year on PUP, and he won't be available until halfway through the season, if that. In the meantime, Tatum Bell will be a starter, with T.J. Duckett around to vulture goal-line carries and handle short yardage situations. At best, Tatum Bell could put up Michael Bennett numbers, with T.J. Duckett playing the role of Moe Williams. Bell is finally out of the Denver situation, and his speed plays very well on Detroit's turf. Martz will likely find creative ways to use him, and he could be a sleeper, but he'll have to improve on the inconsistency and durability issues that have plagued him. Duckett was very good in Atlanta in his short yardage role, but was completely lost in Washington. He should be an effective short yardage back again in Detroit.
Starter - Kevin Jones (candidate to PUP list to start the year)
Backup - Tatum Bell
Goal-line - Kevin Jones (T.J. Duckett if Bell starts)
3rd Down - Bell / Duckett
Green Bay Packers - This is possibly the most muddled backfield at the moment. The incumbant is Vernand Morency, and while he looked solid in some games, I doubt the Packers are too excited about him being the starter. They drafted Nebraska RB Brandon Jackson in the 2nd round, but he doesn't have a long history as a starter, even at the college level. In terms of skill, it seems like Jackson is the favorite, but Morency has spent a year in the GB system. This is another preseason battle that's well worth watching, although a committee seems quite likely at this point. Packers coach McCarthy has stated that he'd prefer one or the other emerge as the starter and someone who receives the majority of the carries, so they'll have a battle on their hands until then.
Starter - Vernand Morency / Brandon Jackson
Backup - Deshawn Wynn
Goal-line - Morency / Jackson
3rd Down - Morency
Minnesota Vikings - Here we have a traditional battle between a solid veteran RB in Chester Taylor, and a very talented rookie RB in Adrian Peterson. We had two of these last year with Joseph Addai battling Dominic Rhodes and Laurence Maroney battling Corey Dillon. The slight difference is that Peterson is more talented than either Addai or Maroney, but he also has durability concerns regarding the collarbone he injured twice last year. The most likely result is that both will receive plenty of touches, especially with raw 2nd year QB Tavaris Jackson set to start all year. Both will likely be allowed to finish the drives they're in near the goal-line, meaning no clear preferred option there. Peterson will be a stud in due time, but that time is most likely not this year.
Starter - Chester Taylor
Backup - Adrian Peterson
Goal-line - Taylor / Peterson
3rd Down - Taylor
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons - Most notably, the Falcons hired Bobby Petrino as their coach, and he will be renovating their running game. For the past several years, the Falcons have been one of the best rushing teams in football, thanks not only to Michael Vick, but also to the highly successful zone blocking scheme that offensive line guru Alex Gibbs helped implement. Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett enjoyed several very good seasons in this scheme, but Duckett was traded a year ago, and Dunn started to show his age last year. He still went over 1100 yards for the 3rd straight year, but faltered in the 2nd half with a poor YPC and only one game above 73 yards. Rookie Jerious Norwood showed great explosion and speed and has earned a bigger role in the offense. Petrino has long preferred a power rushing attack to complement his vertical passing game, but neither Dunn nor Norwood fit that scheme as both are shifty breakaway threats. He's overhauled the offensive line, but lacks the ideal runningback for his system. That being said, he's going to work with what he has, and Norwood at 5'11 and 204 pounds is a better fit. Dunn won't go quietly as he's a tough inside runner in his own right, but I think you'll start to see the torch being passed this year to Norwood. Dunn's excellent 3rd down skills will keep him on the field plenty, though, and his experience will probably get him the starting job, at least to start the season. Expect a committee barring an injury, with Norwood getting a bigger majority in the carries as the season wears on.
Starter - Warrick Dunn
Backup - Jerious Norwood
Goal-line - Dunn / Norwood
3rd Down - Dunn
Carolina Panthers - Coach John Fox showed an illogical commitment to DeShaun Foster last year, despite DeAngelo Williams being the better back when both were healthy and in the lineup. Foster was given a chance to flatout win the job, and he failed to impress in most games except against very weak rushing defenses. Williams is far more explosive, both in the running game and passing game, and reminds many of Brian Westbrook, right down to his dimunitive frame. There are concerns about Williams' size and durability, but both Warrick Dunn and Brian Westbrook have proven in recent years that they are very capable of a full RB's load despite their smallish size. Carolina is doing the opposite of Atlanta, moving from a power rushing attack to a zone blocking scheme. Both RBs fit this scheme much better than the previous one. All that being said, expect the same thing here to occur as it will in Carolina, the gradual passing of the torch from the veteran Foster to the youngster Williams. If Williams were to ever receive the majority of the carries, he'd be a fantasy star. Watch preseason to see if Fox starts handing the torch over earlier than expected.
Starter - DeShaun Foster / DeAngelo Williams
Backup - Nick Goings
Goal-line - Foster / Williams
3rd Down - DeAngelo Williams
New Orleans Saints - The Saints used both McAllister and Bush with great success this past season, so expect more of the same this year. It was a bit of shock to some, but McAllister showed an amazing receovery from a torn ACL. He doesn't have the same speed prior to his ACL tear, but he became far more adept at running between the tackles and moving the chains. McAllister has become a punishing, between-the-tackles runner with decent burst and speed, while Bush is lightning quick and probably has the best long speed of any RB in the league. They're a perfect match. Bush was far more effective in the 2nd half of the season last year because he learned how to effectively run between the tackles while also using his speed and moves. Bush is the most exciting RB that has come into the league since LaDaininan Tomlinson, but there are concerns about his durability at 20+ carries a game, and Deuce McAllister should even be a little better now 2 years removed from the ACL injury. He had another knee surgery this offseason to clean it out, but that seems to be common among ACL tear patients. Expect the Saints to use Bush more this season than last, but McAllister is far from done.
Starter - Deuce McAllister
Backup - Reggie Bush
Goal-line - McAllister / Bush
3rd Down - Bush
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Cadillac Williams, a popular early 2nd round pick last year, was a complete fantasy bust. Williams battled an injured foot and then an injured back back throughout the season, and the Tampa Bay offense under Bruce Gradkowski was a disaster. He only had 2 100 yard games all season long, and scored 1 TD. Williams talent that he flashed during the start of the 2005 season is far from gone, and Gruden learned the hard way that you can't run your starter 30 times a game and expect him to stay healthy. Gruden has stated that he wants Caddy to catch 60 passes this year, which is different from previous years when Pittman replaced him in passing situations. He is the unquestioned starter on this team, but there are durability concerns. Garcia should improve the efficiency of the offense, but the backup situation is muddled between Chris Simms and Bruce Gradkowski when Garcia inevtiably misses some time this upcoming season. Pittman will still be around to help out on 3rd downs and remains a quality backup, and Alstott still looms to do some short yardage work. This could be a make or break year for Caddy. It's his 3rd season, and he has a lot to prove.
Starter - Cadillac Williams
Backup - Michael Pittman
Goal-line - Williams / Alstott
3rd Down - Williams / Pittman
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals - Edgerrin James proved yet again that the surrounding offense has a lot to do with how productive a RB can be in fantasy football. He was a popular mid-1st round pick last year, but only produced thanks to the sheer volume of touches he received. His long speed is gone, and he was often hit in the backfield before he even got moving. His YPC plummeted to 3.4 as a result. Enter Ken Wisenhunt and Russ Grimm from Pittsburgh. They should definitely help improve the line, and re-commit the Cardinals to running the football. Leinart has to learn a new system, but expect him to be more efficient as well. The Cardinals should move the ball better this year, although they might be sluggish to start as they adapt to Wisenhunt's offense. James remains the unquestioned starter, and the Cardinals did nothing in the offseason to improve the talent behind him. Expect James to get 300+ carries again with improved efficiency under the new system, but his days as a fantasy stud are likely behind him.
Starter - Edgerrin James
Backup - Marcel Shipp
Goal-line - Edgerrin James
3rd Down - Edgerrin James
San Francisco 49ers - Frank Gore burst onto the fantasy scene last year, and he was probably owned by many playoff teams. The value he provided the teams who drafted him, especially prior to the Kevan Barlow trade, was outstanding. He showed an all-around game matched by few. He ran like a runaway train, showed impressive long speed, and was a factor in the passing game. The only thing that held him back was some fumblitis near the goal-line, which allowed Michael Robinson some chances for a few games, but he reclaimed that role towards the end of the season and didn't have a problem again. He should show improved ball security this season. The only question mark with him is his lengthy injury history, but he held up well last season despite all the touches and finished strong. Norv Turner is gone, and that's never a good sign for a RB as his systems have produced a lot of great RB seasons, but Gore's talent is undeniable and they will probably run a very similar scheme. The backup situation is muddled. Michael Robinson wasn't that impressive last year, and they seem to like rookie Thomas Clayton. Given Gore's injury history, the preseason is worth keeping an eye on to see if either Robinson or Clayton emerges as the top backup.
Starter - Gore
Backup - Robinson / Clayton
Goal-line - Gore
3rd Down - Gore
Seattle Seahawks - Shaun Alexander is the unquestioned starter. A cracked foot slowed him down last season, and he turned in his worst season since his rookie year as a result. He had two huge games against Green Bay in the snow and also an impressive effort against Baltimore, but outside of that he looked sluggish. His questionable work ethic was bound to catch up to him at some point. The loss of Hutchinson along the offensive line was huge, and they experienced some turnover due to injuries. The offensive line should gel a bit more this year as they've adjusted to Hutchinson not being there, and a full offseason with Branch, Hackett, and Engram working with Hasselbeck should help the passing game. Alexander is no longer an elite fantasy RB, and those expecting a big rebound season will likely be disappointed. He's become an injury risk thanks to his large career workload thus far, and the fact he'll be 30 years old when the season starts. The offense won't be explosive enough to give him the TDs owners are accustomed to. All that said, though, he should still be productive enough to turn in a quality season.
Starter - Shaun Alexander
Backup - Maurice Morris
Goal-line - Alexander
3rd Down - Morris
St. Louis Rams - So that's what happens when you feed Steven Jackson the ball. He provided solid value to those who drafted him in the 1st round last year as he went from anywhere between the middle to late 1st round. He exploded onto the scene with 90 catches, showing an all-around game matched by few. He also put aside durability concerns by playing in all 16 games, and totalling 436 touches. The Rams added Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael to the passing game, which should allow them to score even more points this season, especially if Torry Holt is recovered from his bothersome knee. Scott Linehan showed an illogical love for passing the ball near the goal-line, but Steven Jackson scored 7 TDs in his last 4 games, indicating that Linehan started to learn who his best goal-line option really was. I expect more TDs from Jackson this year, but he's not going to catch 90 passes again. 40-50 seems more reasonable. They also drafted his backup, Brian Leonard, who is a big back with impressive speed. He looks to be a talented handcuff.
Starter - Steven Jackson
Backup - Brian Leonard
Goal-line - Jackson
3rd Down - Jackson
Sunday, July 22, 2007
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