Sunday, July 22, 2007

Saturday: Dempster's Back, Howard's Mashing

Rich Hill - 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 6 K. His control evaded him a bit last night, but he did a good job pitching around baserunners to avoid damaging his ERA. Unfortunately the Cubs offense went cold and he didn't pick up a win.

Ryan Dempster - 1 IP, 1 H, 1 K. His owners might have wondered why the Cubs said that he would immediately move back into the closer's role, but then Howry pitched the 9th last night, even though it was a 4 run lead. I wondered the same. However, Howry entered the 8th last night, and ironically lost the game for the Cubs, and Dempster pitched the 9th. This indicates to me that Dempster is indeed back as the closer despite Howry's success in the role. These oblique injuries are tricky, so it was nice to see him not have any complications.

B.J. Upton - 4/9, 1 R, 3 RBI, HR (12). As an owner of him in both of my leagues, I'm loving this, and he's definitely proving me wrong so far. However, as I keep saying. he's due for a slump that will bring his insane .342 AVG down.

Hideki Matsui - 2/8, 2 R, 5 RBI, 2 HR (16). He's on one of the best power zurges of his career, hitting 8 HR this month in 19 games. It's beyond obvious that his wrist injury from last year is no longer causing power problems, and given his early season struggles, I expect a nice finish to the season from Matsui.

Alex Rodriguez - 3/5, 4 R, 4 RBI, HR (33), SB (10). I love having A-Rod in a doubleheader, don't you? The stolen base is a nice sign after he suffered the leg injury just before the All Star game.

Jeff Weaver - 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K. That's 5 outings in his last 6 that he's allowed 1 ER or less. Still, there's no reason to risk picking him up. He has too long of history, most of it recently, of him being a bad pitcher. It's very possible that he was hurting early on when he was getting blown up, and while this rebound could be for real and he'll regain his ability to be a quality starting pitcher, don't be the guy who risks putting him in your fantasy rotation.

Kason Gabbard - 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K. Another great start from Gabbard. I still don't know that much about his minor league history, but I can't imagine that he'll be a valuable fantasy starter over the rest of the season. His overall 26:15 K:BB ratio isn't that good, but he hasn't walked more than 2 hitters his past 3 starts. Not enough info here to warrant using him, but picking him up if you have an open spot and feel like speculating isn't bad. Perhaps he'll go Jeremy Guthrie on us.

Julio Lugo - 1/5. After writing up my Friday summary 30 mins ago, I speculated that Lugo's hot streak could get him moved back up in the lineup, and sure enough he was leading off last night. If you own him, or are debating a buy-low bid for him, get it in soon because of 2 reasons. First of all, as I've mentioned before, he has a history of being a quality hitter, and that his start this year was very abnormal for him. He's been red hot recently, but his overall numbers are still horrible other than the SBs. Secondly, hitting well in the leadoff position for the Boston lineup is great for his fantasy value.

Tim Lincecum - 8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K, W (5). He's really settling down after his rough patch in the early part of June. That's 5 straight quality starts for Lincecum, 4 of those where he didn't allow more than 1 ER. He still has some erratic control issues, walking 3 or more in 3 of those 5 starts, but he shows how dominant he can be when he's throwing strikes. He's one of the best young pitchers in baseball.

Dave Bush - 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 7 K. Another good start from Bush, but he was outdueled by Lincecum. He has really settled down over the past two months into a reliable end-of-the-rotation fantasy starter.

Jorge Sosa - 4 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 K. Just a flatout bad start from Sosa. I wouldn't worry about this one.

Brad Penny - 6 1/3 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, W (12). Another win for Penny, who tied Zambrano atop the NL leaderboard in wins. He's bounced back well after that bad start earlier this month, and he's making me look like a fool for suggesting selling high on him. We'll see how he ends the season.

Jonathan Broxton - 1 2/3 IP, 3 K, SV (2). Saito reported more tightness in his shoulder, so he'll probably miss a few games. Broxton will close in the meantime, so pick him up if he's available in your league.

Carlos Beltran - 2/4, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR (19). That's 3 staright games with 2 hits and a HR from Beltran, who looks like he's going to get hot again. He had been in a miserable slump before this, and is still only hitting .203 for the month. After a scorching .356 April, he hasn't had a month above .238 since. Leg injuries limited him for a bit, and he was heating up after that, but then went back into a slump again. His .263 AVG is destined to rise as long as he's healthy, and hopefully he'll keep this going for a while.

Buddy Carlyle - 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, W (5). He has 4 straight quality starts, all wins, and also a 5th start mixed in that was cut short due to rain. He has 40 K in 60 IP, 14 BB, and a 1.15 WHIP, he's pitching pretty well. You could do worse spot starting him against weaker offenses.

Chipper Jones - 3/4, 1 R, 4 RBI, HR (16). With a .346 AVG, he's hitting about as well as ever in his career this season. As I've said before, as long as you have a reliable backup at 3B on your bench, Jones will be very productive for you while healthy.

Hanley Ramirez - 3/5, 1 R, 4 RBI, HR (16). With a .336 AVG, 16 HR, and 27 SB, you could argue that he's been a better fantasy SS than Jose Reyes. The two are a lot closer than many major outlets will have you think.

Justin Verlander - 5 2/3 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 7 K. Ok, so not what owners were looking for versus the Royals. With a 4.58 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP this month, Verlander has been struggling. Still, his 20:3 K:BB ratio is amazing, it's just the .266 BAA is a bit higher than it's been all year, so it's been the hits and not the walks that are getting to him. I mentioned that he might wear down this year given how deep he pitched into last year, something he had never done before. Hopefully for his owner's sake that won't be the case, but it's worth monitoring.

Todd Jones - 1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, BS (5). Another blown save for Jones, but like I mentioned earlier, the lack of alternatives keep his job safe for now. I have to think the Tigers will be aggressive in wanting to upgrade their bullpen at the deadline. Zumaya is due back later this year, but I bet they add at least one quality arm. Given their strong farm system, a potential fit with Washington and Chad Cordero makes sense on paper.

Jered Weaver - 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K. A strong start from Weaver, but the offense couldn't get to Bonser to give him enough run support, and Shields ended up giving up the game anyways.

Joe Mauer - 1/4, 3 run HR (5). Gotta love it when your catcher gives you an inside-the-park HR. Too bad it wasn't a real HR given his continued lack of power. His frame suggests the power should develop at some point, but it just hasn't yet.

Wandy Rodriguez - 5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 6 K. After getting on a nice role, he's crashed again, and this one was especially frustrating against the Pirates. His peripherals remain strong (1.27 WHIP, 98 K in 113 IP), so he should bounce back. I think he's a candidate to be a 5th fantasy starter assuming he rebounds.

Dan Haren - 6 2/3 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, W (11). He's still providing very good fantasy value as his ERA slowly rises to a more reasonable level. At 2.41 currently, it'll still keep moving up, but he'll do enough in the other catagories to remain plenty valuable. He'll likely be overvalued next year.

Corey Patterson - 2/5, 1 R, 1 RBI, 2 SB (23). Hitting .358 this month with 8 SB has revived Patterson's fantasy value. He's been hitting 2nd a lot, and it seems like they're willing to stick with him there. Go pick him up if you need steals in your OF and ride out the hot streak. It's possible he'll resume hitting like he did last year, so he's worth speculating on. It's amazing how he hasn't been able to cash in on all that talent.

Jack Cust - 2/3, solo HR (17). It looks like Oakland, despite Piazza returning, it seems Oakland is committed to keeping Cust in the lineup, even if it means putting him in the OF. This indicates that he'll remain valuable in fantasy leagues for his power, as long as you can afford the AVG hit.

Ryan Howard - 3/5, 3 R, 5 RBI, 2 HR (27). Despite missing 2 weeks in May with an injury and struggling early on, he's among the league leaders in HR (27) and RBI (79). He's provided a ton of fantasy value the past two months, smashing 18 HR, and he's hitting .359 this month as he's gotten as hot as he's been all year.

No comments: