Fantasy Football QB Analysis

I'm going to note the ADP for each QB that I believe are viable starting QBs in your standard 12 team, 1 starting QB league. Like I've said before, it's not about ranking players, but it's about analyzing where players are going and whether or not they're worth the price you have to pay to acquire them. The 1st number is the round, followed by a dot, and then the 2nd number is the pick in the round.

1.11) Peyton Manning - Manning is over-valued this year. I'm not a fan of taking a QB this early, especially this year when there are less RBs with 300 carry potential due to the growing popularity of the Running Back By Committee (RBBC) strategy. This ADP might be inflated by people who take him very early, however. I would not want to take Manning over clearcut starters like Laurence Maroney, Ronnie Brown, Willis McGahee, and Brandon Jacobs due to the reason I outlined above. All of those RBs have top 10 potential. I understand the certainty that you're paying for with him, but QB is usually deeper than most people think, and if you're starting only one QB versus 2 RBs (possibly 3 with a flex), you need those RBs to field a strong lineup. I would happily take Manning once you get down to the Shaun Alexander (although he goes way higher than I'd take him), Thomas Jones, Edgerrin James, Cadillac Williams, and Cedric Benson type RBs, however. Manning is a better bet than those guys who are available around the same time. I'd also take Manning over every WR. That being said, I won't own him in any league this year thanks to his high price tag.

3.02) Carson Palmer - Palmer is a good value this year, and a much better value than Manning. If you want to take a QB this high, I'd happily take Palmer in the 3rd round. He's 100% this year after having that time to recover from the knee injury suffered in the 2005 playoffs, and his much stronger 2nd half last year proved it once he finally got comfortable again. Moving forward, I think it'll be hard to tell Palmer and Manning apart stats-wise, which makes Palmer a much better pick. His WRs are just as talented as Manning's are. Imagine having LT or Steven Jackson plus Palmer. Now that's a foundation.

3.10) Tom Brady - Brady is a decent value this year. Brady plays in a very spread-the-wealth offense, and given that he's surrounded by the best talent of his career with the additions of Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, and Wes Welker, plus TE Ben Watson, he's never had so many weapons, especially downfield receivers. There's a good chance that he'll turn in one of the finest seasons of his career and he could give Manning and Palmer a run for their money, but he's going to have to finish #3 to warrant this pick. He's a solid option here, although I'd prefer him a bit better in the 4th round.

3.12) Drew Brees - Brees is over-valued this year. He had one of the most surprising rebound seasons in recent memory last year, including an incredible stretch of 5 straight 300+ yard passing games. He's going to have to repeat his career season in order to justify that ADP, and it's hard to ask someone to have 2 consecutive career seasons. Joe Horn is gone, and while he was injured last year and the Saints were in too much of a groove to notice, don't underestimate the savvy veteran's impact on the team. I know Colston filled in just fine for a while, but it's a lot to ask a 2nd year WR to become the focal point of the passing game and stay among the NFL's best. You're not getting any value here as his ceiling will be the only thing that makes him worth taking this high. Plus with Bush's better knowledge of how to run at the NFL level, the Saints should take advantage of their talented RBs to keep their suspect defense off the field a bit more.

4.05) Marc Bulger - Bulger is a solid value this year. He had a terrific year last year, finally staying healthy for 16 games, and he thrived in Linehan's offense. He didn't throw an INT until week 6. The Rams added Drew Bennett to the slot, and they also added Randy McMichael as a passing game presence at the TE position. The Rams were pass-happy in the redzone, although given the effectiveness of Steven Jackson down the stretch around the goal line, I don't expect them to throw quite so much around the goal line this year. Still, with a great pass catching RB, added weapons in the passing game, and a solid offensive system, Bulger looks set to repeat last season's numbers. A warning though...don't forget about Holt's troublesome knee. He's the key to this powerful offense, and Bulger would go from solid value to a bit over-valued if Holt continues to struggle with that injury.

4.10) Donovan McNabb - There's a lot of varying opinions on him this year, but I believe McNabb is a solid value. Last year, we saw Carson Palmer start off cold until he became re-adjusted to the pocket. We also saw Daunte Culpepper look absolutely brutal before shutting it down, but his knee injury was a lot more serious than McNabb's. All preseason reports on McNabb have been good as he looks comfortable in the pocket and his throws look strong. He was the #1 fantasy player last year before going down, putting up a huge season like what happened to him back in 2002. I doubt he runs anywhere close to what he usually does, but even as just a passer, he's arguably a top 5 QB. Westbrook is amazing out of the backfield, Reggie Brown has another year of experience, and they replaced the injury-prone Stallworth with an equally fast, smarter, and more durable Kevin Curtis. Expecting a slow start isn't a bad idea, but he'll be just fine when it counts. Make sure to take a backup higher than the other top guys if you select him due to the injury history.

6.01) Jon Kitna - Kitna is a good value this year. Kitna looked like a more injury-prone Marc Bulger last season. He makes too many stupid throws and is careless with the ball in the pocket at times, but he threw for a ton of yards and should find the endzone plenty this year. Kevin Jones is probably headed to the PUP list and is replaced by Tatum Bell. Bell is far less reliable out of the backfield, so expect even more passing. The Lions added Calvin Johnson, who is arguably the most physically gifted WR to come out of college. His blend of size and speed is unheard of, and he's a hard-working, smart player to boot. Expect a much smaller learning curve for him as compared to most rookies, and he'll immediately become a huge upgrade opposite the equally-talented Roy Williams. Furrey, a wonderful safety valve, was re-signed and moves to the slot which suits his skills much better. With the upgraded talent and the reliance on the passing game, only health with prevent Kitna from putting up a big year.

6.09) Matt Hasselbeck - Hasselbeck is over-valued this year. He's coming off a disasterous season, but fantasy owners obviously expect a rebound by drafting him as the 8th QB off the board. The Seattle system is very good for producing solid fantasy numbers. While having Deion Branch in their offense will definitely help improve the chemistry between him and Hasselbeck, he'll be flanked by D.J. Hackett. Branch and Hackett are good system receivers, but they just don't possess the type of talent that Darrell Jackson and Koren Robinson had. Alexander is non-existant out of the backfield in the passing game, and Marcus Pollard is an aging, decent option at TE. I think Hasselbeck will be solid, but I don't see any upside here.

7.05) Tony Romo - Tony Romo is a good value this year. Fantasy owners must not think he was for real last season, or else he'd be going ahead of Hasselbeck. He easily put up top 10 numbers in the 12 weeks that he played, and he's only going to get better. Terrell Owens remains a bit of a risk as a #1 WR, but he should drop less passes this year after fixing the torn tendon in his finger. He's still a monster in the redzone. Glenn is a solid #2, and while he's a big health risk, I believe Patrick Crayton can easily fill his role in the offense if necessary. Witten provides a very good TE in the passing game, and Barber is great out of the backfield. The weapons are there, and Romo should capitalize with a solid season. He also provides a bit of value on the ground as he's a very mobile QB despite not being fast.

7.05) Phillip Rivers - Rivers is slightly over-valued. He had an incredible first season that exceeded all expectations, but I don't think he has the talent around him at the WR position that will allow him to take the next step. LT is incredible out of the backfield, and Norv Turner loves throwing to his RBs. Antonio Gates is the best TE in football. Vincent Jackson is an emerging deep threat, but his all-around game needs work and he doesn't have much on-field experience yet. Rookie Craig Davis flanks him, and while his speed is great, his hands remain suspect, and he's replacing the reliable, if unspectacular Eric Parker who's out at least 6 weeks with a broken foot. He's a fairly solid choice, but like with Hasselbeck, I don't see much further upside.

8.06) Vince Young - Vince Young is slightly over-valued. I question him as a starting fantasy QB this year, but that's exactly what he's being drafted as. His ceiling is higher than that of Michael Vick's thanks to his better work ethic and leadership qualities, but much like Vick, the weapons around him are subpar at best. He'll make up for the lack of passing yards with the rushing numbers, but exactly how much he'll be able to make up is the question. It should at least keep him fairly consistent from week to week. With a WR corp that includes the talented but struggling Brandon Jones, the aging Eric Moulds, and the inexperienced Roydell Williams, things don't look good. Bo Scaife is a solid TE and possibly the most reliable receiver on the team. Young has incredible upside for the future, but his surrounding cast will continue to limit his present upside. The only thing that holds me back from completely avoiding him is his incredible ability to prove all doubters wrong at every level.

8.06) Matt Leinart - Matt Leinart is a good value. He's being drafted as a fringe starter, and I think that's his downside this season. Arizona's new coaching staff is from the old Pittsburgh regime under Bill Cowher, so while they'll work to build around the running game, there's just too much offensive talent here in the passing game not to use it. Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin form the most physically talented WR duo in the NFL, and Bryant Johnson has been an adequate 3rd WR. They don't have much in the way of TEs, but the Steeler's offense under Ken Wisenhunt severely under-used Heath Miller, so it's not much of a loss. Edgerrin James is an accomplished receiver out of the backfield. Leinart should take a step forward this year, and he has a smart offensive mind that's backing him. It remains to be seen how stubborn Wisenhunt will be with the running game this year given the questionable offensive line to see exactly how much Leinart will throw, which directly correlates to fantasy value. Still, there's a lot to like here.

9.02) Jay Cutler - Jay Cutler is a good value. He's also being drafted as a fringe starter, and I also believe that's his downside this season. Shanahan immediately trusted Cutler more than Plummer last year, and he threw for 2 TDs in his first 4 starts. Javon Walker is one of the game's best deep threats, and Cutler has a cannon for an arm. The only problem is the 2nd WR slot. Brandon Marshall is immensley talented, but he's raw and still learning the NFL game. Rod Smith will start the season on the PUP list, and that will hurt as having a savvy veteran WR as a safety valve is a great thing for a QB. The Broncos signed Daniel Graham, and while he's a blocking specialist, he's still a solid option as a receiver. Tony Scheffler will play plenty in 2 TE sets, and Cutler showed off his chemistry with Scheffler down the stretch last year. Shannahan has a great system and I'd be surprised if Cutler didn't finish in the top 12 QBs at least come year's end, with the possibility of a huge leap still an option.

9.12) Eli Manning - Manning is a good value. His value fell from last year when many expected him to become among the fantasy elite. I believe last year is his The Giants remained among the biggest jokes in football this offseason as it was marred by Tiki's retirement and slams against the team, Burress and Shockey spending too much time training on their own instead of building a chemistry with their QB, and the loss of LT Luke Pettigout who arguably received more criticism than he deserved as he was solid protecting Manning's blindside. Eli returns with a new LT, a new RB in Brandon Jacobs who is underrated in the passing game, and hopefully a new attitude towards being a leader. Burress remains a tremendous deep option, although he's still not a well-rounded WR. Toomer returns from a torn ACL, but at his age it remains to be seen how well he'll recover. A underrated addition was the drafting of WR Steve Smith, who will eventually turn into a very good NFL receiver and a reliable target for Manning. Toomer and Smith will be the keys to what sort of upside Manning has the season, but it figures to continue getting better for Eli.

10.03) Ben Roethlisberger - Roethlisberger is my favorite value pick at QB this season. Throw last year out the window as it was ruined by his motorcycle accident. Former offensive coordinator Ken Wisenhunt and former line coach Russ Grimm stated that they believed the Steelers rushed Big Ben back onto the field when he wasn't ready, and I think his performance proves that. Given Roethlisberger was a very efficient QB his first two seasons, his performance last year as an interception-prone QB with a 75.4 QB rating was a complete anomaly. He had posted 2 straight seasons with a QB rating right at 98 prior to that, so it's painfully clear that his head was not in the game last season. Big Ben was a top 5 fantasy QB during the last 12 weeks of the 2006 season, amazingly enough. Mike Tomlin is the new head coach and Bruce Arians takes over as offensive coordinator. Gone are the grind-it-out days of the Cowher regime...Arians loves to spread the field and throw the ball. With the steady Hines Ward, the emerging Santonio Holmes, Cedric Wilson, Nate Washington, and the under-utilized Heath Miller at TE, the Steelers have quality receiving options, and Willie Parker will be thrown to more as well. With a pick this late, there's nothing but upside here.