Wednesday, August 29, 2007

RB Depth Chart Update

As we close in on week 1 of the NFL season, I wanted to run down the RB situation for each team again.

Buffalo Bills - Starter: Marshawn Lynch, Backup: Anthony Thomas
Marshawn Lynch has received solid work in the preseason, and while he definitely has some skills, his offensive line is really a problem. Plus, Jauron has talked about a committee. Lynch is nothing more than a RB3 as of right now, but I still expect him to receive more carries than Anthony Thomas.

Miami Dolphins - Starter: Ronnie Brown, Backup: Jesse Chatman
Ronnie Brown has looked impressive in spurts, but much like Buffalo, his offensive line is truly offensive. Cam Cameron seems intent on motivating Brown by publically claiming not to have chosen his starter yet. There's no doubt in m mind that it will be Brown, but this appears to be the third year in a row that he'll be held back by the talent around him. He could emerge as a buy-low candidate once the season gets going as the team acclimates itself to a new offensive system.

New England Patriots - Starter: Laurence Maroney, Backup: Sammy Morris
Laurence Maroney shed the non-contact jersey and also put in a nice workload in his first preseason game, carrying the ball 15 times. He's ready to roll and should put up good numbers in what appears to be an explosive offense. He better stay effective in the redzone as Morris is a powerful back who remains a threat to take the redzone carries in NE's share-the-wealth offensive system.

New York Jets - Starter: Thomas Jones, Backup: Leon Washington
Thomas Jones suffered a calf injury during the preseason, but he appears to be fine and should be ready for week 1. His all-around skills will keep him on the field for most of the game, and he was an effective redzone runner in his stay with the Bears. Washington remains an explosive backup, but should only be used as a change-of-pace RB.

Baltimore Ravens - Starter: Willis McGahee, Backup: Mike Anderson
Willis McGahee has reported been very impressive in redzone drills during the preseason, but Baltimore beat reporters say that he stills lacks explosiveness. If they're correct, then don't expect to see many big plays out of McGahee this year. Regardless of that fact, he remains the unquestioned starter on this team with reliable veteran Mike Anderson backing him up.

Cincinnati Bengals - Starter: Rudi Johnson, Backup: Kenny Watson
Rudi Johnson is in store for another large workload, although one must wonder if he can play yet another 16 game season of 325+ carries. However, the fact is that he has handled the large workload just fine so far in his career, and the offense around him should be great. Watson will be used as a 3rd down back, but he probably won't receive all the carries should Rudi get hurt.

Cleveland Browns - Starter: Jamal Lewis, Backup: Jason Wright/Jerome Harrison
This probably the most talent-bereft backfield in all of football. Lewis claims that he's over his ankle injury, but he looks just about done judging from his last 2 seasons of work. He remains the unquestioned starter, however. Should Lewis get hurt, a committee of Wright and Harrison would take his place.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Starter: Willie Parker, Backup: Najeh Davenport
Willie Parker should benefit from the new offensive system that spreads the field more, which plays to his strength of outrunning everyone. Plus, he'll probably be more involved in the passing game as new coordinator Bruce Arians loves to use all options on the field. Davenport is a fine backup who is talented in his own right, but often hurt. If Parker struggles again in goal line work this season, look for the Steelers to find an alternative goal line RB.

Houston Texans - Starter: Ahman Green, Backup: Ron Dayne
Ahman Green should remain a fairly valuable starter while healthy, but at age 30 with a fairly large workload and several injuries in his past, one has to wonder if he'll play 16 games this season. Odds are strong against that. The Texans' offense this year should play to his strength, although rumors about Dayne being used around the goal line persist. Dayne would be a fairly productive RB if Green went down.

Indianapolis Colts - Starter: Joseph Addai, Backup: DeDe Dorsey
Joseph Addai will put his all-around skills on display for 320+ touches this season, and only his durability remains a question. He'll be on the field the majority of the time, and when he's not, it sounds like DeDe Dorsey will spell him. Dorsey and Kenton Keith are battling for the backup spot, but it seems as though Dorsey will get that job. Should Addai go down, Dorsey should be a solid option.

Jacksonville Jaguars - Starter: Fred Taylor, Backup: Maurice Jones-Drew
The Jaguars didn't pay Fred Taylor $5 million to come back this year to sit on the bench, so he's being very overlooked in drafts this year, currently carrying a 7.11 ADP value. Taylor is still the starter of this team, and still a talented one at that. Jones-Drew will be used on 3rd downs, but his goal line role is undefined with the return of Greg Jones. Taylor should remain healthier than usual being spelled more often by Jones-Drew as evidenced by last season. If Taylor went down, Jones-Drew would become a fantasy stud, however.

Tennessee Titans - RBBC : LenDale White and Chris Brown
Jeff Fisher seemed impressed with Chris Brown's work so far in the preseason, and he has stated that this will be a committee with him and LenDale White. White is far more suited to be a 300 carry RB than Chris Brown is, but his conditioning and knack for minor injuries is holding him back. White will have every chance to win this job outright, but consider it RBBC to start the season. Chris Brown should be the 3rd down back regardless.

Denver Broncos - Starter: Travis Henry, Backup: Mike Bell
Travis Henry tweaked his knee in the preseason, but all signs point to him being 100% for week 1. Mike Bell also suffered an injury of his own to his hip, but he has also returned to practice and appears ready for the start of the season. Henry is the unquestioned starter of this team, but Bell will get more work than most backups due to Denver's love of running the ball. If Henry went down, Bell would be a very good fantasy RB.

Kansas City Chiefs - Starter: Larry Johnson, Backup: Michael Bennett
Who really believed that Larry Johnson was going to holdout? He's signed and ready for a bit of action in the final preseason game, so he should be 100% ready to go for week 1. The Chiefs want to ease off of him a bit this year, and given his 416 carries last year, that obviously seems like a good idea. Bennett remains the backup for now, but given his incredibly unreliable he is, Kolby Smith should overtake him at some point. If LJ went down, it would probably be a RBBC until Smith outplayed Bennett enough to take the carries from him.

Oakland Raiders - Starter: LaMont Jordan, Backup: Justin Fargas (until week 6), Dominic Rhodes (after week 6)
LaMont Jordan has looked explosive in the preseason so far, so it appears that he's over the bcak injury that plagued him over the summer somewhat. It remains a bit of a concern going forward as most back injuries would, but he looks fine on the field. Jordan definitely has the talent to take this job over in the first 4 weeks while Rhodes is suspended, and as long as he stays healthy, I expect him to do so. Rhodes averaged 3.4 YPC in a great Indy offense last year (Addai posted a 4.8 YPC), so I fail to see how he'd be a superior option. He's an all-around back that should be on the field most of the game, and Rhodes would take over after his suspension if an injury would befall Jordan.

San Diego Chargers - Starter: LaDainian Tomlinson, Backup: Michael Turner
Any questions here? I didn't think so. Turner suffered what some believed to be the dreaded high ankle sprain in the last preseason game, but recent reports have given a more positive diagnosis. Turner is questionable for week 1, and should LT go down while Turner is not 100%, Darren Sproles would take over. Sproles is explosive, but he doesn't possess the size to be a 25 carry RB.

Dallas Cowboys - Starter: Julius Jones, Backup: Marion Barber III
Julius Jones is still the starter of this team with the new coaching staff, and he might actually get more work than under Parcells where he was pulled in 3rd down and goal line situations. Jones won't get all the touches like most unquestioned starters would as Barber will still play plenty on 3rd downs and around the goal line, but their roles don't seem to be as clearly defined as last year. If Jones were to get hurt, Barber would be a very valuable fantasy commodity.

New York Giants - Starter: Brandon Jacobs, Backup: Derrick Ward/Ryan Grant
If you didn't believe me before, you will now. Brandon Jacobs is the unquestioned starter of this team, and the Giants are actually moving Reuben Droughns back to the fullback position that he played in Detroit. That should provide the Giants with some flexibility on their playcalling with both on the field. Should Jacobs go down, it appears as though some committee between Derrick Ward and Ryan Grant would form, although you can't rule out the possibility of the Giants moving Droughns back to RB at that point.

Philadelphia - Starter: Brian Westbrook, Backup: Correll Buckhalter
Brian Westbrook remains the multi-talented, unquestioned starter who will line up all over the field and be used in a variety of ways. The backup situation is a bit muddled, but the Eagles have stated that Buckhalter will resume his role as the primary backup RB. Rookie Tony Hunt should also be used as the Eagles like to do different things of offense, and Hunt also remains a candidate to take goal line carries this year. The goal line situation is a big question mark here.

Washington Redskins - Starter: Clinton Portis, Backup: Ladell Betts
Clinton Portis has been battling knee tendonitis for some time now, but the Redskins state that he could have played more in the preseason, and also that he's in line for a few carries in their last preseason game. Portis is the unquestioned starter if he's healthy, but that's a big if right now. We all saw what Betts could do last year as the starter, and he remains the unquestioned backup RB who would be very valuable if Portis goes down again. He'll probably receive more work than most backups depending on Portis' knee.

Chicago Bears - Starter: Cedric Benson, Backup: Adrian Peterson
Cedric Benson gets his wish as the unquestioned starter, but he'll give way on 3rd downs to a combination of Peterson and Wolfe depending on the play being called. He should get plenty of touches, but it remains a question what exactly he'll do with them. He's looked sluggish and unexplosive in my eyes, but perhaps he's saving himself for the regular season. I can only hope. Peterson has retained the backup position over rookie Garrett Wolfe, and he'd likely be a solid fantasy RB should Benson get hurt.

Detroit Lions - Starter: Tatum Bell, Backup: T.J. Duckett
Kevin Jones' health remains a mystery, and he's scheduled to see a doctor on Thursday to see if he'll be medically cleared. It would be a shock if he didn't start the year on PUP. Until he returns, Tatum Bell will be the primary ball carrier while Duckett steals short yardage and goal line carries. Once KJ returns, his role will be determined by exactly how healthy it is. As you can see, this situation is a bit of a mess.

Green Bay Packers - Starter: Brandon Jackson, Backup: Vernand Morency
Brandon Jackson has won the starting job if for no other reason than Morency hurting his knee very early in preseason. Jackson also hurt himself, suffering a concussion in the last preseason game. He'll be held out of the final preseason game, but appears ready to roll in week 1. Morency's status for week 1 is questionable, and Jackson will receive the majority of carries and a chance to win the job outright depending on how he performs. Morency would likely be at least a 3rd down back when he returns, which is what he's best suited for.

Minnesota Vikings - RBBC: Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson
Chester will technically remain the starter for the Vikings, but Peterson was clearly a very impressive runner and showed off his talent as well. They will split carries in some fashion with a slight edge to Chester to start the season, but if the Vikings season goes in the tank early, expect Peterson to start getting more carries. Peterson has obviously been medically cleared regarding his collarbone, but it's a smart move here to continue using Chester and breaking Peterson into the NFL game slowly. They'll have to run the ball a lot to stay in games and protect raw QB Tavaris Jackson.

Atlanta Falcons - Starter: Warrick Dunn, Backup: Jerious Norwood
Warrick Dunn will start week 1 as the coaching staff seems to prefer the veteran at this point. Dunn came back incredibly quick after back surgery, but he looked horrible in his first preseason game. He's not in shape yet, but that hasn't deterred Petrino from naming Dunn the week 1 starter. I just can't see that lasting very long, and I expect Norwood to take over at some point as the team's starter once he proves that he's better on the field. Dunn has been a great NFL RB, especially for his size, but I don't think he has it anymore, and he's not a good fit for this new offensive system.

Carolina Panthers - Starter: DeShaun Foster, Backup: DeAngelo Williams
Foster has run fairly well in the preseason and has maintained his starter's status. He should run for a higher YPC this year while he's healthy as the new zone-blocking technique that Carolina has implemented plays to his quickness. Williams is no doubt the better talent, but John Fox has remain loyal to his veteran, and just like Fred Taylor, he wasn't re-signed to sit on the bench. Williams will play more than most backups, especially on 3rd down, but unless he blows Fox's socks off while in the game, this is Foster's job.

New Orleans Saints - RBBC: Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush
This will be a full blown RBBC, but McAllister should take most of the goal line work, and Bush should take most of the 3rd down work. This is probably the most jumbled of all RBBCs as Bush will be involved around the goal line as well, McAllister is not a bad pass catching back, Bush will be lined up all over the field, and both will be on the field at the same time in certain packages. As I stated before, expect more of the same as last year, but also expect Bush to get more touches this year as McAllister should slowly give way to him. If one gets hurt, the other would gain a lot of value.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Starter: Cadillac Williams, Backup: Michael Pittman
Cadillac has solidified the starting job here, and Tampa Bay hasn't used him much in the preseason, just like his rookie year. Gruden wanted Williams to become a 3 down back, but reports are that he's dropping too many passes in practice, and that Pittman will likely resume his role as the 3rd down back. Alstott has retired, so Williams will be used around the goal line far more often, giving his value a boost. Should Williams go down, Pittman would become a fairly solid fantasy RB.

Arizona Cardinals - Starter: Edgerrin James, Backup: Marcel Shipp
Edgerrin James is the unquestioned starter, but the questionable part of his role is the goal line work. There's been rumors that Wisenhunt prefers Marcel Shipp around paydirt, and Edgerrin's already depressed value given his age and career workload would take another hit if that plays out. It's something to monitor, and Shipp would like split 3rd down duties with J.J. Arrington if Edge were to go down. Edge remains the preferred 3rd down back due to his impressive passing game skills.

Seattle Seahawks - Starter: Shaun Alexander, Backup: Maurice Morris
Shaun Alexander returns as the unquestioned stater, and Morris remains the boring but fairly reliable backup. Alexander's career workload and performance last season after he returned from the cracked foot (he simply put up good numbers via pure volume) make him a questionable bet to finish the season, so Morris will likely make at least one start during the season. Morris will also continue his work on 3rd down situations.

San Francisco 49ers - Starter: Frank Gore, Backup: Maurice Hicks
Frank Gore owners received a scare when he broke his hand in the offseason prior to the start of preseason, but he's continued working out as much as possible prior to the season and should be 100% by week 1. There were rumors that he'd play some in the preseason finale, but there's no reason for the 49ers to risk him in a meaningless game. If Gore were to miss time, Hicks is techincally the backup, but I imagine Michael Robinson would split work with him in some fashion.

St. Louis Rams - Starter: Steven Jackson, Backup: Brian Leonard
Steven Jackson barely saw the field in the preseason, much like LT does each season, and it's a good idea given the workload he took on last season. He remains the unquestioned starter and all-world talent on a great offense. If Jackson got hurt, Leonard would assume the starting position and likely post great numbers. He didn't have a big time college career, but he possesses great all-around skills and looked solid in the preseason.

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