Cleveland Browns RB Montario Hardesty tore his ACL during the preseason game against the Bears last night.
Fantasy Impact: Hardesty has been rather snake bitten with injuries involving his knees over the past couple years. This is a real shame since Jerome Harrison failed to impress the coaching staff while Hardesty was nursing his latest knee injury. Hardesty started last night and looked great while getting more than was blocked on his carries, but his torn ACL ends his season. Those of us unlucky fantasy owners who took a shot with Hardesty as their RB4/5 can cut bait immediately. Jerome Harrison will be the feature RB of this team for at least the first couple weeks, and he'll be a RB2 during that time as he doesn't much competition for carries yet. James Davis made a nice impression again last night, so he will move into the backup role and receive change-of-pace snaps. Davis can be added as a RB5 in case Harrison falters, and he could push for playing time as the year goes on.
Friday, September 3, 2010
Sunday, August 29, 2010
My Big Draft
I had my most important league's draft last night, so I wanted to take a step back, examine the results, and see how things went. It's a 12 team league with a standard starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D/ST. Scoring is standard as well with 30 passing yards/1 point, 10 rushing.receiving yards/1 point, 6 points for TDs, and -2 for turnovers. I picked 5th overall.
1st round: The top 4 RBs went off the board as usual with CJ, AP, MJD, and Rice gone in that order. As I stated in my draft guide, the no brainer 5th pick was Frank Gore, so that's who I drafted. The rest of the 1st round went pretty much according to the norm, although a Pats homer picked at the 12/13 turn and took both both Brady and Moss. Moss was a good pick, but taking Brady there is a bit high. However, it's one of those situations where if that's a player you really want, you know he won't make it back to you, so you have to take him there.
2nd round: I had 2 targets: Calvin Johnson and Roddy White. As long as one made it to me, I was going to be happy. Calvin Johnson went off the board with the 2nd pick of the round, so that made things interesting. The guy that picked in front of me stole the two WRs I wanted last year, but luckily he took Miles Austin instead, leaving me with Roddy White. I think White has the QB, offensive situation, and target-hound potential to contend for the top fantasy WR position this season.
3rd round: This is where things got interesting. I am high on Steve Smith (Carolina) as a WR2 who has WR1 potential, and he was my original target. However, Jamaal Charles lasted all the way to the 5th pick of the 3rd round. After struggling a bit with the decision, I went with Jamaal Charles. Like I said in my draft guide, I think he has explosive lower RB1 potential. I understand Thomas Jones is a threat, especially for goal line carries, but Charles has murdered him in preseason production. This will be a decision that I'll be keeping an eye on this season.
4th round: Not that I wanted one, but all the top 2 tiered QBs were gone now. Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Brady, Schaub, and Rivers. WR was my position of need, especially after passing on Steve Smith, and I always target WR2s that have WR1 potential. The decision was between Dwayne Bowe and Hakeem Nicks, and I went with Dwayne Bowe. Bowe has finally had an excellent offseason showing dedication, and I think Charlie Weis will improve this offense. Chambers provides enough of a threat, especially after last season's performance, that will keep defenses honest. Bowe will be the primary target on most passing plays. The round went mostly according to plan, but the TE run started with Gates and Finley being drafted. The round also included the draft's biggest head-scratching selection, and that was Carson Palmer with the last pick. Unbelievable. Even if you like Palmer, he could be drafted about 8 rounds later.
5th round: Too early to dive into the next batch of QBs, and Finley was off the board. That left me with a choice of a 3rd WR, or a top backup RB. Finley was the only TE that I would have strongly considered in the 5th round, and he was drafted in the previous round. I'm not especially high on Clark or Witten. An argument can be made for Vernon Davis, and I also considered Nicks again, but ultimately I thought Arian Foster provided the best value. Foster is a starting RB with goal line duties for a high-powered offense, and he's going to make a lot of owners happy this season. Another boneheaded QB pick was made in this round, and that was Eli Manning. While I like Manning, it's another example of not knowing ADP as he would have been available for at least another 5 rounds.
6th round: It was still too early to dive into the next batch of QBs, and if I didn't take Finley in round 5, I was waiting until at least the 8th round to take a TE. I already had 3 RBs, so WR was the obvious position. I went with the guy I've been pimping, and that's Johnny Knox. He's a perfect fit for Martz's offense, and while the Bears have struggled with pass protection in the preseason, I think they'll put up enough big games. Plus, Knox has clearly been the go-to guy for this passing attack in the preseason. As a WR3, I really like his value. Round 6 included an awful selection of Justin Forsett, but things went mostly according to plan otherwise.
7th round: This was my worst selection. 6/7 teams picking behind me had a QB, so I should have waited a round as I like Cutler, Kolb, and Ryan about equally. At least 2/3 would have been there, and it's very likely that all 3 still would have been there as the one guy who didn't have a QB chose Flacco. I went with Jay Cutler, and I feel this is a pick that is going to haunt me. I really should have gone with Dez Bryant, and he was taken in the 8th round prior to my next pick. I think Cutler is going to have some huge games, and I think he'll provide better results in the 2nd half once the offense gels, but their offensive line is starting to really concern me. Luckily they play Detroit in week 1, so that has the ability to be a good one.
8th round: Cutler simply isn't an every week starter in my eyes right now, so I handicapped that pick with Matt Ryan. Ryan is going to take a step forward this year, and while his upside is limited by a team who likes to run, he's going to have plenty of passing lanes because of it as well. Ryan and Cutler both have the same bye week, but it's not until week 8, and there's a ton that can happen during the first 7 weeks. At worst case, I take a spot-starter for week 8. It's only one week. 3 defenses went in this round. Very few defenses are every week starters, so I just cannot fathom taking even elite defenses this early in the draft.
9th round: I had 3 very good RBs, my 3 starting WRs, and 2 QBs. Backup WR and starting TE were on my shopping list. I learned from the Cutler debacle, looked at the 7 teams picking behind me, and only two teams didn't have a TE. I liked both Zach Miller and Chris Cooley, so I took a calculated risk by letting this position go, and I focused on the WRs. I selected Lee Evans as someone who, at worst case, will be a good bye week fill-in. At best case, he will approach WR2 value. That talent hasn't gone anywhere, and I love fallen talents like Evans that I can put on my bench. I also really liked Santonio Holmes despite his 4 game suspension, but with Roddy White having a week 4 bye, I couldn't take this risk by forcing me to rely on whomever my WR5 was. I think the emergence of C.J. Spiller will give the defenses something else to focus on, and Roscoe Parrish is finally being used in the passing game. I like Evans' potential. By the way, neither Miller nor Cooley were selected.
10th round: I looked at the teams behind me, and they all had TEs, so I again felt safe letting that position go one more round. I wanted another RB, and I had my eye on Donald Brown, but he was selected 2 spots before pick. I re-looked at the available players, and I went with Montario Hardesty. James Harrison is NOT impressing coaches with his fumbles, and if you remember prior to his late season explosion last year, he was often in Mangini's doghouse for whatever reason. Hardesty is battling a knee injury which has kept him out of the preseason, but thankfully for his fantasy stock, Harrison is not doing anything to pull away. Hardesty will split carries once he returns, and he'll be the goal line back. He has a lot of upside, and he's exactly the type of RB I like to take later in the draft.
11th round: Miller and Cooley were still on the board, but it was only a matter of time before the two teams behind me that didn't have a TE took one, and we were now approaching the time in the draft where teams start taking a backup TE. I selected Zach Miller whom I really like this year. If Miller can produce borderline TE1 value with freakin' Jamarcus Russell, the move to Jason Campbell gives him very nice upside. Plus, Campbell made Cooley a TE1 for years in Washington, so he clearly values throwing to the TE position. It's not an offense that's going to allow Miller to score a lot of TDs, but there's a good chance he leads the team in receiving yards. Louis Murphy should also provide enough of a threat to keep defenses doubling him all game, and hopefully McFadden and Bush can provide additional threats as well.
12th round: Toss-up round. I wanted another RB, another WR, another TE, and I still needed a K and D/ST. I had my eye on Leon Washington, but he was taken a couple picks before me. I selected Mike Williams from Tampa Bay. Williams is going to be their go-to WR all season, and only an injury will prevent him from leading the team in receiving. Josh Freeman might miss the first game or two, but that's hardly a concern as my WR5. Freeman and Williams have shown impressive chemistry already, and I really like his potential this season. A great value this late.
13th round: I had a number of RBs left rated similarly, so I waited. The Dallas defense really stood out at this pick as an appealing defense that was still on the board, so I went with them. I always look at a defense's week 1 matchup when taking one, and with Washington up first, I really liked it. McNabb might not be ready, and how good of a friend is Rex Grossman to fantasy defenses? This could be an awesome pick for week 1.
14th round: 5th RB time! This is lottery pick area, so you take a RB that has big upside should the starter go down. The best bet is to focus on RBs that would have a clear starting role with an injury. I gave a little thought to Rashard Jennings with the rumblings about MJD's knee, but instead I went with Bernard Scott. With LJ gone, Scott is a big, explosive backup to Cedric Benson who will immediately become a RB2 should Benson get hurt. Scott has the talent to be a starting RB in the NFL.
15th round: Backup TE time. I selected Tony Scheffler. Yes, Brandon Pettigrew was a 1st round pick last season, but he's coming back from a torn ACL, and he'll be brought along slowly. Pettigrew is an excellent blocker, and while he's a solid receiver, he does not possess the seam-stretching ability that Scheffler does. Expect a lot of 2 TE sets with Scheffler providing a mismatch for whomever is covering him in the slot. He's got a chance for lower level TE1 value for what should be a much improved offense.
16th round: Simple strategy: take the best kicker available. I went with Adam Vinatieri. I also strongly considered Shayne Graham, and I might make a switch prior to week 1. Vinatieri has regressed the past couple seasons, but he had surgery to correct some injury issues, and he's looked solid so far. The problem is a bit of a catch-22...the Colts are a high powered offense that plays in a dome, but they are also extremely efficient in the red zone, so they actually don't provide a lot of FG opportunities. At worst case, he's going to get a good number of extra points, so just 1 FG will give you a solid game.
Recap: I liked my draft, and I think I did very well in the later rounds. However, I will be doing 2 comparisons this season:
1) Jamaal Charles & Dwayne Bowe versus Steve Smith & Jahvid Best. I would have taken Best in the 4th round had I selected Smith in the 3rd. I'm obviously concerned about having 2 of my top 4 players on a shaky offense, but at least the AFC West's defenses are pretty weak, and Weis should improve the KC offense. I felt I was taking the best player available, so in theory it shouldn't matter come season's end.
2) Jay Cutler & Lee Evans versus Dez Bryant & Ben Roethlisberger. I'm also obviously concerned about Cutler, and Evans versus Bryant should be interesting. Had I taken Bryant instead of Cutler, I would have gone with Big Ben in round 10 as my backup QB. Bryant is a 2nd WR on a good offense while Evans is a 1st WR on a bad offense. I'm very curious to how Cutler will play when I use him over Ryan.
All in all, I'm happy with my team, and I think I have a deep bench. I'm just excited for the season to start at this point!
1st round: The top 4 RBs went off the board as usual with CJ, AP, MJD, and Rice gone in that order. As I stated in my draft guide, the no brainer 5th pick was Frank Gore, so that's who I drafted. The rest of the 1st round went pretty much according to the norm, although a Pats homer picked at the 12/13 turn and took both both Brady and Moss. Moss was a good pick, but taking Brady there is a bit high. However, it's one of those situations where if that's a player you really want, you know he won't make it back to you, so you have to take him there.
2nd round: I had 2 targets: Calvin Johnson and Roddy White. As long as one made it to me, I was going to be happy. Calvin Johnson went off the board with the 2nd pick of the round, so that made things interesting. The guy that picked in front of me stole the two WRs I wanted last year, but luckily he took Miles Austin instead, leaving me with Roddy White. I think White has the QB, offensive situation, and target-hound potential to contend for the top fantasy WR position this season.
3rd round: This is where things got interesting. I am high on Steve Smith (Carolina) as a WR2 who has WR1 potential, and he was my original target. However, Jamaal Charles lasted all the way to the 5th pick of the 3rd round. After struggling a bit with the decision, I went with Jamaal Charles. Like I said in my draft guide, I think he has explosive lower RB1 potential. I understand Thomas Jones is a threat, especially for goal line carries, but Charles has murdered him in preseason production. This will be a decision that I'll be keeping an eye on this season.
4th round: Not that I wanted one, but all the top 2 tiered QBs were gone now. Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Brady, Schaub, and Rivers. WR was my position of need, especially after passing on Steve Smith, and I always target WR2s that have WR1 potential. The decision was between Dwayne Bowe and Hakeem Nicks, and I went with Dwayne Bowe. Bowe has finally had an excellent offseason showing dedication, and I think Charlie Weis will improve this offense. Chambers provides enough of a threat, especially after last season's performance, that will keep defenses honest. Bowe will be the primary target on most passing plays. The round went mostly according to plan, but the TE run started with Gates and Finley being drafted. The round also included the draft's biggest head-scratching selection, and that was Carson Palmer with the last pick. Unbelievable. Even if you like Palmer, he could be drafted about 8 rounds later.
5th round: Too early to dive into the next batch of QBs, and Finley was off the board. That left me with a choice of a 3rd WR, or a top backup RB. Finley was the only TE that I would have strongly considered in the 5th round, and he was drafted in the previous round. I'm not especially high on Clark or Witten. An argument can be made for Vernon Davis, and I also considered Nicks again, but ultimately I thought Arian Foster provided the best value. Foster is a starting RB with goal line duties for a high-powered offense, and he's going to make a lot of owners happy this season. Another boneheaded QB pick was made in this round, and that was Eli Manning. While I like Manning, it's another example of not knowing ADP as he would have been available for at least another 5 rounds.
6th round: It was still too early to dive into the next batch of QBs, and if I didn't take Finley in round 5, I was waiting until at least the 8th round to take a TE. I already had 3 RBs, so WR was the obvious position. I went with the guy I've been pimping, and that's Johnny Knox. He's a perfect fit for Martz's offense, and while the Bears have struggled with pass protection in the preseason, I think they'll put up enough big games. Plus, Knox has clearly been the go-to guy for this passing attack in the preseason. As a WR3, I really like his value. Round 6 included an awful selection of Justin Forsett, but things went mostly according to plan otherwise.
7th round: This was my worst selection. 6/7 teams picking behind me had a QB, so I should have waited a round as I like Cutler, Kolb, and Ryan about equally. At least 2/3 would have been there, and it's very likely that all 3 still would have been there as the one guy who didn't have a QB chose Flacco. I went with Jay Cutler, and I feel this is a pick that is going to haunt me. I really should have gone with Dez Bryant, and he was taken in the 8th round prior to my next pick. I think Cutler is going to have some huge games, and I think he'll provide better results in the 2nd half once the offense gels, but their offensive line is starting to really concern me. Luckily they play Detroit in week 1, so that has the ability to be a good one.
8th round: Cutler simply isn't an every week starter in my eyes right now, so I handicapped that pick with Matt Ryan. Ryan is going to take a step forward this year, and while his upside is limited by a team who likes to run, he's going to have plenty of passing lanes because of it as well. Ryan and Cutler both have the same bye week, but it's not until week 8, and there's a ton that can happen during the first 7 weeks. At worst case, I take a spot-starter for week 8. It's only one week. 3 defenses went in this round. Very few defenses are every week starters, so I just cannot fathom taking even elite defenses this early in the draft.
9th round: I had 3 very good RBs, my 3 starting WRs, and 2 QBs. Backup WR and starting TE were on my shopping list. I learned from the Cutler debacle, looked at the 7 teams picking behind me, and only two teams didn't have a TE. I liked both Zach Miller and Chris Cooley, so I took a calculated risk by letting this position go, and I focused on the WRs. I selected Lee Evans as someone who, at worst case, will be a good bye week fill-in. At best case, he will approach WR2 value. That talent hasn't gone anywhere, and I love fallen talents like Evans that I can put on my bench. I also really liked Santonio Holmes despite his 4 game suspension, but with Roddy White having a week 4 bye, I couldn't take this risk by forcing me to rely on whomever my WR5 was. I think the emergence of C.J. Spiller will give the defenses something else to focus on, and Roscoe Parrish is finally being used in the passing game. I like Evans' potential. By the way, neither Miller nor Cooley were selected.
10th round: I looked at the teams behind me, and they all had TEs, so I again felt safe letting that position go one more round. I wanted another RB, and I had my eye on Donald Brown, but he was selected 2 spots before pick. I re-looked at the available players, and I went with Montario Hardesty. James Harrison is NOT impressing coaches with his fumbles, and if you remember prior to his late season explosion last year, he was often in Mangini's doghouse for whatever reason. Hardesty is battling a knee injury which has kept him out of the preseason, but thankfully for his fantasy stock, Harrison is not doing anything to pull away. Hardesty will split carries once he returns, and he'll be the goal line back. He has a lot of upside, and he's exactly the type of RB I like to take later in the draft.
11th round: Miller and Cooley were still on the board, but it was only a matter of time before the two teams behind me that didn't have a TE took one, and we were now approaching the time in the draft where teams start taking a backup TE. I selected Zach Miller whom I really like this year. If Miller can produce borderline TE1 value with freakin' Jamarcus Russell, the move to Jason Campbell gives him very nice upside. Plus, Campbell made Cooley a TE1 for years in Washington, so he clearly values throwing to the TE position. It's not an offense that's going to allow Miller to score a lot of TDs, but there's a good chance he leads the team in receiving yards. Louis Murphy should also provide enough of a threat to keep defenses doubling him all game, and hopefully McFadden and Bush can provide additional threats as well.
12th round: Toss-up round. I wanted another RB, another WR, another TE, and I still needed a K and D/ST. I had my eye on Leon Washington, but he was taken a couple picks before me. I selected Mike Williams from Tampa Bay. Williams is going to be their go-to WR all season, and only an injury will prevent him from leading the team in receiving. Josh Freeman might miss the first game or two, but that's hardly a concern as my WR5. Freeman and Williams have shown impressive chemistry already, and I really like his potential this season. A great value this late.
13th round: I had a number of RBs left rated similarly, so I waited. The Dallas defense really stood out at this pick as an appealing defense that was still on the board, so I went with them. I always look at a defense's week 1 matchup when taking one, and with Washington up first, I really liked it. McNabb might not be ready, and how good of a friend is Rex Grossman to fantasy defenses? This could be an awesome pick for week 1.
14th round: 5th RB time! This is lottery pick area, so you take a RB that has big upside should the starter go down. The best bet is to focus on RBs that would have a clear starting role with an injury. I gave a little thought to Rashard Jennings with the rumblings about MJD's knee, but instead I went with Bernard Scott. With LJ gone, Scott is a big, explosive backup to Cedric Benson who will immediately become a RB2 should Benson get hurt. Scott has the talent to be a starting RB in the NFL.
15th round: Backup TE time. I selected Tony Scheffler. Yes, Brandon Pettigrew was a 1st round pick last season, but he's coming back from a torn ACL, and he'll be brought along slowly. Pettigrew is an excellent blocker, and while he's a solid receiver, he does not possess the seam-stretching ability that Scheffler does. Expect a lot of 2 TE sets with Scheffler providing a mismatch for whomever is covering him in the slot. He's got a chance for lower level TE1 value for what should be a much improved offense.
16th round: Simple strategy: take the best kicker available. I went with Adam Vinatieri. I also strongly considered Shayne Graham, and I might make a switch prior to week 1. Vinatieri has regressed the past couple seasons, but he had surgery to correct some injury issues, and he's looked solid so far. The problem is a bit of a catch-22...the Colts are a high powered offense that plays in a dome, but they are also extremely efficient in the red zone, so they actually don't provide a lot of FG opportunities. At worst case, he's going to get a good number of extra points, so just 1 FG will give you a solid game.
Recap: I liked my draft, and I think I did very well in the later rounds. However, I will be doing 2 comparisons this season:
1) Jamaal Charles & Dwayne Bowe versus Steve Smith & Jahvid Best. I would have taken Best in the 4th round had I selected Smith in the 3rd. I'm obviously concerned about having 2 of my top 4 players on a shaky offense, but at least the AFC West's defenses are pretty weak, and Weis should improve the KC offense. I felt I was taking the best player available, so in theory it shouldn't matter come season's end.
2) Jay Cutler & Lee Evans versus Dez Bryant & Ben Roethlisberger. I'm also obviously concerned about Cutler, and Evans versus Bryant should be interesting. Had I taken Bryant instead of Cutler, I would have gone with Big Ben in round 10 as my backup QB. Bryant is a 2nd WR on a good offense while Evans is a 1st WR on a bad offense. I'm very curious to how Cutler will play when I use him over Ryan.
All in all, I'm happy with my team, and I think I have a deep bench. I'm just excited for the season to start at this point!
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Rams WR Donnie Avery Suffers Knee Injury
St. Louis Rams WR Donnie Avery suffered a serious knee injury this evening in his preseason game with the Patriots. Given the nature of the injury, I'm pretty sure he tore his ACL.
Fantasy Impact: Immediately remove Avery as a WR5 candidate, and re-focus a potential WR5 candidate to Laurent Robinson instead. Robinson has the talent to be a true #1 WR at the NFL level, but much like Avery, he's suffered a number of injuries in his short career. Like I mentioned in my draft guide, a rookie QB isn't the best news for WR fantasy value, but someone has to step up, and Robinson has the most talent on the team. He's a good end-game flier.
Fantasy Impact: Immediately remove Avery as a WR5 candidate, and re-focus a potential WR5 candidate to Laurent Robinson instead. Robinson has the talent to be a true #1 WR at the NFL level, but much like Avery, he's suffered a number of injuries in his short career. Like I mentioned in my draft guide, a rookie QB isn't the best news for WR fantasy value, but someone has to step up, and Robinson has the most talent on the team. He's a good end-game flier.
500th Post: Leinart Sucks More And Gets Demoted
I noticed that this is my 500th on post here. So, for the none of you who follow this, thanks for your support. I'd still be here if it weren't for you.
Down to business: Arizona QB Matt Leinart has been demoted. Derek Anderson will start for the Cardinals this weekend in the all important 3rd preseason game, and Leinart will come in off the bench. As long as Derek Anderson doesn't go all Jake Delhomme, which would be saying something since we're talking about Derek Anderson, he'll start in week 1. It's obvious that the Cardinals' coaching staff has seen enough of Leinart to know that he's not even the short term answer, and there's reason to believe he might be cut as well. It couldn't happen to a more dedicated player. Wait.
Fantasy Impact: Cross Leinart off your draft board, obviously. Derek Anderson hasn't shown any better accuracy this offseason, so there's little reason to draft him. If the Cardinals fall out of contention, there's a good chance one of Arizona's young QBs, Max Hall or John Skelton, would get the call at that point. Larry Fitzgerald becomes slightly more appealing because Anderson is far more aggressive than Leinart, but I still project a drop in his numbers across the board, and I'd much rather draft Calvin Johnson or Roddy White instead. Steve Breaston is worth ignoring because I don't think Anderson will be able to support more than one fantasy-relevant WR. Beanie Wells is mostly unaffected, although this might increase his scoring potential ever so slightly. Continue drafting him as a RB2 as he'll likely be the offensive focal point along with Fitz. On a semi-related note, I'm not buying this Tim Hightower crap. Hightower might "start", but Beanie is their featured RB. If this forces Wells into the 3rd round, grab him at a discount if you didn't like him in the 2nd.
Down to business: Arizona QB Matt Leinart has been demoted. Derek Anderson will start for the Cardinals this weekend in the all important 3rd preseason game, and Leinart will come in off the bench. As long as Derek Anderson doesn't go all Jake Delhomme, which would be saying something since we're talking about Derek Anderson, he'll start in week 1. It's obvious that the Cardinals' coaching staff has seen enough of Leinart to know that he's not even the short term answer, and there's reason to believe he might be cut as well. It couldn't happen to a more dedicated player. Wait.
Fantasy Impact: Cross Leinart off your draft board, obviously. Derek Anderson hasn't shown any better accuracy this offseason, so there's little reason to draft him. If the Cardinals fall out of contention, there's a good chance one of Arizona's young QBs, Max Hall or John Skelton, would get the call at that point. Larry Fitzgerald becomes slightly more appealing because Anderson is far more aggressive than Leinart, but I still project a drop in his numbers across the board, and I'd much rather draft Calvin Johnson or Roddy White instead. Steve Breaston is worth ignoring because I don't think Anderson will be able to support more than one fantasy-relevant WR. Beanie Wells is mostly unaffected, although this might increase his scoring potential ever so slightly. Continue drafting him as a RB2 as he'll likely be the offensive focal point along with Fitz. On a semi-related note, I'm not buying this Tim Hightower crap. Hightower might "start", but Beanie is their featured RB. If this forces Wells into the 3rd round, grab him at a discount if you didn't like him in the 2nd.
WR5 Draft Guide Update 2
I removed Golden Tate. After a very strong start to the offseason, he's fallen behind and will not start when the year begins. He's working on special teams now to increase his gameday value. He's someone to keep an eye on when the regular season begins, but he's not draftable.
I've become a stronger proponent of both Mike Williams from TB and Bernard Berrian. Williams has had a strong offseason from start to finish, and barring injury, he's a lock to lead all rookie WRs in yards and probably TDs. The Freeman injury hurts his value in the short term, but if that allows you to grab him at a further discount, that's perfect. Berrian obviously gets a bump due to Rice's hip surgery and Harvin's headaches, and he's probably being drafted as more of a WR4 now, which is fine as he'll start and be the primary deep threat for Favre.
I also highly recommend Jabar Gaffney. He's hardly an elite talent, but he's a good bet to lead the Broncos in receiving. Demaryius Thomas has re-injured his foot again, and he's not going to make a fantasy impact until late this year, if at all. Eric Decker isn't going to threaten his starting job this season, and who knows what you'll get with Eddie Royal.
I've become a stronger proponent of both Mike Williams from TB and Bernard Berrian. Williams has had a strong offseason from start to finish, and barring injury, he's a lock to lead all rookie WRs in yards and probably TDs. The Freeman injury hurts his value in the short term, but if that allows you to grab him at a further discount, that's perfect. Berrian obviously gets a bump due to Rice's hip surgery and Harvin's headaches, and he's probably being drafted as more of a WR4 now, which is fine as he'll start and be the primary deep threat for Favre.
I also highly recommend Jabar Gaffney. He's hardly an elite talent, but he's a good bet to lead the Broncos in receiving. Demaryius Thomas has re-injured his foot again, and he's not going to make a fantasy impact until late this year, if at all. Eric Decker isn't going to threaten his starting job this season, and who knows what you'll get with Eddie Royal.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Sidney Rice Undergoes Hip Surgery
Minnesota WR Sidney Rice underwent hip surgery, and he is expected to be sidelined for at least half of the season.
Fantasy Impact: Hopefully you've been listening to my advice to avoid Rice in drafts this season. Unfortunately, if you did not, you now have a 2nd/3rd round pick that isn't going to play for a while. It's probably too early to tell exactly how long his rehab will take, but the estimate right now is half a season. Brett Favre gets a slight downgrade as Rice was his go-to receiver, but I still see him as a solid QB2. Sidney Rice can be drafted as a WR5, but nothing more. He's going to miss at least half the season, he'll probably be rusty when he comes back, and it's not a lock that he'll play at all. Percy Harvin and Bernard Berrian both get upgrades. Harvin is a bit of a risk with his unpredictable migraine situation, but he's a rock-solid WR3 set to start and see a nice increase in targets. Berrian should take over as the primary deep threat, and he's now worth up to a WR4 pricetag with possibility for WR3 value while Rice is out.
Fantasy Impact: Hopefully you've been listening to my advice to avoid Rice in drafts this season. Unfortunately, if you did not, you now have a 2nd/3rd round pick that isn't going to play for a while. It's probably too early to tell exactly how long his rehab will take, but the estimate right now is half a season. Brett Favre gets a slight downgrade as Rice was his go-to receiver, but I still see him as a solid QB2. Sidney Rice can be drafted as a WR5, but nothing more. He's going to miss at least half the season, he'll probably be rusty when he comes back, and it's not a lock that he'll play at all. Percy Harvin and Bernard Berrian both get upgrades. Harvin is a bit of a risk with his unpredictable migraine situation, but he's a rock-solid WR3 set to start and see a nice increase in targets. Berrian should take over as the primary deep threat, and he's now worth up to a WR4 pricetag with possibility for WR3 value while Rice is out.
Monday, August 23, 2010
Matt Leinart Sucks
Yeah, that's about it. He's starting to lose the locker room, and there's no guaranty he's going to last this season as the starter. In fact, it's likely. He's not worth drafting as a QB2, and I'll update my draft guide accordingly.
2010 Preseason Backfield Report Update
I've made updates to the backfield report, so take a gander at teams you're keeping an eye on for the latest information. Good times!
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Brett Favre Returns
It's not official yet, but Brett Favre will be returning to the Minnesota Vikings for the 2010 season. It's hardly a surprise, but it gives some concrete information from which to draft Vikings' players. The Vikings will no doubt welcome him back with open arms as they're a Super Bowl contender with him.
Fantasy Impact: Brett Favre makes for a solid late QB1, but keep in mind that last season was a dream season, and that regression is to be expected. As long as he's drafted accordingly, he should be a solid contributor to your fantasy team. Adrian Peterson needs to be drafted in the top 2 of all leagues, but that was the case with or without Favre. Honestly, I like him better with Favre returning. Sidney Rice has started to cut off of his hip, so that's progress in his return from his mysterious hip injury. He will remain overvalued for as long as he's being drafted as a WR1. My expectations for Favre's regression will impact the entire passing game. Percy Harvin stands the most to benefit. Favre obviously solidifies the QB position, and Rice might start slow or possibly not be 100% this season. I like Harvin as an upside WR3. Bernard Berrian is nothing more than a late WR5 flier. Shiancoe is not a TE1 as he's solely reliant on TDs for his fantasy value.
Fantasy Impact: Brett Favre makes for a solid late QB1, but keep in mind that last season was a dream season, and that regression is to be expected. As long as he's drafted accordingly, he should be a solid contributor to your fantasy team. Adrian Peterson needs to be drafted in the top 2 of all leagues, but that was the case with or without Favre. Honestly, I like him better with Favre returning. Sidney Rice has started to cut off of his hip, so that's progress in his return from his mysterious hip injury. He will remain overvalued for as long as he's being drafted as a WR1. My expectations for Favre's regression will impact the entire passing game. Percy Harvin stands the most to benefit. Favre obviously solidifies the QB position, and Rice might start slow or possibly not be 100% this season. I like Harvin as an upside WR3. Bernard Berrian is nothing more than a late WR5 flier. Shiancoe is not a TE1 as he's solely reliant on TDs for his fantasy value.
Monday, August 16, 2010
Buffalo's RB Situation
I wanted to sum up the mess that is Buffalo's backfield currently. Fred Jackson has broken a bone in his hand, and he is out for the rest of the preseason. He is also in danger of missing a regular season game or two. He was heading into the season as the lead back in this mess, but he is now in danger of losing that role. Marshawn Lynch sprained his ankle, but he is expected back as soon as the last preseason game. C.J. Spiller has a huge opportunity to seize the starting job the next couple weeks. I had originally ranked him as overrated because of all the veteran competition, but he is in complete control of his destiny. He's not going to be a goal line back, so his upside is limited, but he's comparable to someone like Jamaal Charles last season. His play-making ability would fit well into a team that does not have a solid offensive line nor a passing game. I would draft Spiller the first of the three now as I think his talent will win out, and he's got the best upside as a RB3. I wouldn't take Jackson as anything more than a RB4. Lynch is mostly an afterthought. I'm curious to see how Spiller does the next couple weeks.
49ers Sign RB Brian Westbrook
The 49ers signed RB Brian Westbook today. This was a bit surprising after hearing the Rams and Redskins were the front runners to sign Westbrook. Ultimately though, the Rams were a rough fit because they play on turf, which would have been hell on Westbrook's knees, and they are in no shape to contend. The Redskins were a better fit because the play on grass and are closer to contention, but they also have like 8 billion 30+ year old RBs on their team. The 49ers offered both a grass surface and are probably the preseason favorites to win the wide open NFL West.
Fantasy Impact: I have updated the draft guide, but the simple fact is that this should not impact your view of Frank Gore. Glen Coffee suddenly retired to pursue a career in religion, and that left a hole at the backup RB position. Anthony Dixon was impressive during his first preseason action, but the 49ers remain concerned about his contributions in the passing game as both his blocking and receiving are questionable. Enter Brian Westbrook. Westbrook is obviously a big name in fantasy circles thanks to his contributions to teams over the past 5 or so seasons, but at 30 years old, he has proven over the past 2 seasons that he is best suited to a smaller, backup RB role. Westbook will get weekly touches and be a part of the game plan, but this offense will continue to run through Gore. The 49ers have stated their intention to move back to a power running attack after spending a lot of time in the spread formation last year, so adding an extra RB to take some carries is a good thing to keep Gore fresh. Continue to view Gore as an option in the top 5, and pounce if he falls out of it.
Fantasy Impact: I have updated the draft guide, but the simple fact is that this should not impact your view of Frank Gore. Glen Coffee suddenly retired to pursue a career in religion, and that left a hole at the backup RB position. Anthony Dixon was impressive during his first preseason action, but the 49ers remain concerned about his contributions in the passing game as both his blocking and receiving are questionable. Enter Brian Westbrook. Westbrook is obviously a big name in fantasy circles thanks to his contributions to teams over the past 5 or so seasons, but at 30 years old, he has proven over the past 2 seasons that he is best suited to a smaller, backup RB role. Westbook will get weekly touches and be a part of the game plan, but this offense will continue to run through Gore. The 49ers have stated their intention to move back to a power running attack after spending a lot of time in the spread formation last year, so adding an extra RB to take some carries is a good thing to keep Gore fresh. Continue to view Gore as an option in the top 5, and pounce if he falls out of it.
Sunday, August 15, 2010
2010 Preseason Backfield Report
With the preseason underway and injuries already occurring, I want to go through each team's backfield situation and update things along the way. I will be skipping teams with settled backfields like Tennessee, Minnesota, etc. as their situation is obvious.
Buffalo Bills - Fred Jackson suffered a hand injury in the preseason opener, and his availability for week 1 seems doubtful at this point.. He was shaping up to be a value pick in drafts this season as the favorite for early-down RB duties, but this is no longer the case. Marshawn Lynch also suffered an ankle injury and has missed all practices and games since then. The dual injuries have allowed C.J. Spiller to shine, and he will likely start in week 1. While Spiller is not built to be a workhorse at the NFL level, he's extremely explosive and should be a solid RB3. The lack of workhorse build, the fact he'll share carries, and his poor surrounding offense limits his upside, but he'll have a chance to be a RB2 this season.
Miami Dolphins - Ronnie Brown looked very good in his limited week 1 action, and the fact that he played in the first preseason game speaks volumes to his health situation. You can safely draft him as though he's 100% healthy, and he's a value in the 4th round. It's hard not to imagine Brown, while healthy, performing the same role with similar numbers as last season prior to his foot injury. The acquisition of Brandon Marshall and the further maturation of Chad Henne will help the Miami ground game.
New England Patriots - Fred Taylor is the supposed starter at the moment, but Taylor and Morris did not play in the first preseason game. Maroney looked solid with 2 TDs, and BJG looked good as well. The current thought is that the Patriots will feature BJG and attempt to trade him to someone, possibly New Orleans. The situation is an absolute mess, and thanks to the fact Maroney is buried on the depth chart and barely receiving preseason carries, he is no longer worth drafting, but rather someone to keep an eye on.
New York Jets - Greene has been referred to as the "bell cow" by Rex Ryan, so that should alleviate all doubts that LT would play a big role. I would feel 100% confident in drafting Greene to be my RB1 in the late first round. LT does look somewhat explosive, but this is Greene's backfield with LT a 3rd down RB threat and backup runner.
Cleveland Browns - James Harrison looked pretty good in his first preseason game, and Montario Hardesty is losing a bit of ground nursing a minor injury. James Davis is nowhere to be found. Hardesty still has plenty of time to make up ground, and if he impresses, it's hard to see this not being some sort of committee. RB committee + poor offense = look elsewhere for a RB.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Jonathan Dwyer has not been impressive this offseason yet, but in his absence, Isaac Redman has stepped up and performed admirably thus far. Mendenhall is the starter and will get the majority of touches, but Redman is a threat to take goal line carries. Furthermore, Pittsburgh's offensive line is a question mark, although they project to stronger blocking for the run than the pass. He's being picked in the late first round, but I'm wondering if he's worth that price.
Houston Texans - This is the biggest fantasy news yet this offseason. Rookie Ben Tate suffered a severe and season-ending ankle injury. Arian Foster is the clear starting RB, and he is a must-have in fantasy leagues. Slaton will only be a passing down and change-of-pace RB. Foster's ADP has moved to 78.4, which is the middle of the 7th round. You'll probably have to grab him in the 6th round to make sure, but he's well worth the pick as the starting RB/goal line back for the explosive Texans offense. He's a tremendous RB3.
Denver Broncos - Knowshon Moreno is nursing a hamstring injury, and while he's expected to be ready for week 1, his status for any preseason action is up in the air. Hamstring injuries can be tricky, so keep a close eye on his recovery. Hopefully he can get into a preseason game and at least show a small sign that he's good to go, but that's unlikely. The good news is that he's on track to start in week 1, so he's safe to draft if you believe in his talent. Kyle Orton's strong preseason has given me hope that he can turn in a solid RB2 season if the passing attack can hold their own.
Kansas City Chiefs - Thomas Jones has been running with the starters, so there is some concern about Charles' role to start the year. Based on what I saw last year, and the talent level of these two RBs at the respective stages in their careers, there's no question in my mind that Charles will win this job. The fact is that Todd Haley is playing head games with Charles to keep him hungry and encourage improvement, just like he tried to do with Dwayne Bowe. Unlike Dwayne Bowe in 2009, however, Charles is working hard. He's an excellent 2nd round choice and should pay big dividends when it matters most.
Oakland Raiders - Michael Bush looked good in the preseason while Darren McFadden nurses yet another injury. It's looking increasingly likely that Bush will be the starter and handle a lot of early down carries. He's not pulling away, but he's going to start and get first crack at goal line work. He's a solid RB3.
San Diego Chargers - Ryan Mathews looked very good in his first preseason, and he was out there in passing formations as well. Mathews looks like he's going to have a nice workload this season, and he might catch more passes than originally thought. He's better suited as a 2nd round RB, but he looks to be in store for a nice rookie season.
Dallas Cowboys - Marion Barber has had a very good offseason so far, and he's dropped the weight he gained in order to be an every down RB. He's been starting in practice, so it looks like he'll be the starter with Felix Jones seeing the field plenty. We're probably looking at a 50/50 timeshare here, but Barber is going to dominate goal line work. Jones is being over-drafted, and Barber is being under-valued.
New York Giants - This RB situation has undergone a complete reversal. Bradshaw has looked great while Jacobs has looked pedestrian. Bradshaw looks like he's inching towards a 50/50 carry split, and he's going to dominate receptions, so he's going to get more touches. Jacobs should handle goal line work, but it would not surprise me at all if Bradshaw gets a few as well. I'd much rather draft Bradshaw a couple rounds later.
Washington Redskins - Portis is entrenched as the starter, but I am no longer a fan of drafting him this year. He does not look explosive at all, and this backfield has Shanahan written all over it. Larry Johnson will get his touches, Ryan Torain looked solid during extensive work, and Keiland Williams impressed with his time on the field as well. Willie Parker isn't going to make this team barring some miracle this week when he starts in week 3.
Detroit Lions - Best has looked great during his time on the field in the preseason, and he was in during all situations, including a couple goal line plays. Best is a good value in the 3rd round of drafts, and only injuries will hold this kid back.
New Orleans Saints - Lynell Hamilton suffered a torn ACL, so he is out for the season. Pierre Thomas is the lone wolf in this backfield for now, and his upside is huge at the moment. The Saints have signed un-inspiring options such as Ladell Betts and DeShawn Wynn so far, and neither are a threat to Thomas' nor Bush's roles. Thomas is a good 3rd round RB.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Cadillac is again entrenched as the starter, and he looked solid in his first preseason action. The kid that made a name for himself is Kareem Huggins, and he has passed the declining Derrick Ward to be the #2 RB on this team. Given Cadillac's long injury history, Huggins is a great late round flier in all drafts this season.
Arizona Cardinals - Wells and Hightower are still battling, but just like the Charles/Jones battle, the better talent will win out here as well. Wells is going to be the starting RB for this team, and he will dominate carries.
Seattle Seahawks - Julius Jones started in the first preseason game. It's an absolute joke that this waste of space is taking reps from more talented players, but it is what it is. Justin Forsett is simply not going to be a feature RB on this team. Leon Washington has looked great, and he's going to start in preseason week 3. This is a good indicator that he is going to start in week 1 of the regular season as he's the most talented RB on this team if he's healthy. Forsett is solid as well, so this is shaping up to be true committee. I'd rather draft Washington later than Forsett, but honestly I'm not excited about anyone here.
Summary: Lots of interesting information so far. I think the biggest stories so far are:
1) Ben Tate's injury, although as I mentioned above, the severity isn't entirely known by the public right now. Arian Foster is a starter.
2) Lynell Hamilton's injury: Pierre Thomas isn't out of the water yet in his competition for goal line carries, but the Saints aren't signing any true threats for his role.
3) Ronnie Brown's health: He looks 100% healthy again. He provided excellent value while healthy last season as a 3rd round pick, and he's going even later this year. Health is always a concern with him, but if you can land 3 reliable players in front of him, he's well worth the risk.
There's still a couple RB battles worth keeping an eye on, so I'll write further articles as the preseason progresses.
Buffalo Bills - Fred Jackson suffered a hand injury in the preseason opener, and his availability for week 1 seems doubtful at this point.. He was shaping up to be a value pick in drafts this season as the favorite for early-down RB duties, but this is no longer the case. Marshawn Lynch also suffered an ankle injury and has missed all practices and games since then. The dual injuries have allowed C.J. Spiller to shine, and he will likely start in week 1. While Spiller is not built to be a workhorse at the NFL level, he's extremely explosive and should be a solid RB3. The lack of workhorse build, the fact he'll share carries, and his poor surrounding offense limits his upside, but he'll have a chance to be a RB2 this season.
Miami Dolphins - Ronnie Brown looked very good in his limited week 1 action, and the fact that he played in the first preseason game speaks volumes to his health situation. You can safely draft him as though he's 100% healthy, and he's a value in the 4th round. It's hard not to imagine Brown, while healthy, performing the same role with similar numbers as last season prior to his foot injury. The acquisition of Brandon Marshall and the further maturation of Chad Henne will help the Miami ground game.
New England Patriots - Fred Taylor is the supposed starter at the moment, but Taylor and Morris did not play in the first preseason game. Maroney looked solid with 2 TDs, and BJG looked good as well. The current thought is that the Patriots will feature BJG and attempt to trade him to someone, possibly New Orleans. The situation is an absolute mess, and thanks to the fact Maroney is buried on the depth chart and barely receiving preseason carries, he is no longer worth drafting, but rather someone to keep an eye on.
New York Jets - Greene has been referred to as the "bell cow" by Rex Ryan, so that should alleviate all doubts that LT would play a big role. I would feel 100% confident in drafting Greene to be my RB1 in the late first round. LT does look somewhat explosive, but this is Greene's backfield with LT a 3rd down RB threat and backup runner.
Cleveland Browns - James Harrison looked pretty good in his first preseason game, and Montario Hardesty is losing a bit of ground nursing a minor injury. James Davis is nowhere to be found. Hardesty still has plenty of time to make up ground, and if he impresses, it's hard to see this not being some sort of committee. RB committee + poor offense = look elsewhere for a RB.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Jonathan Dwyer has not been impressive this offseason yet, but in his absence, Isaac Redman has stepped up and performed admirably thus far. Mendenhall is the starter and will get the majority of touches, but Redman is a threat to take goal line carries. Furthermore, Pittsburgh's offensive line is a question mark, although they project to stronger blocking for the run than the pass. He's being picked in the late first round, but I'm wondering if he's worth that price.
Houston Texans - This is the biggest fantasy news yet this offseason. Rookie Ben Tate suffered a severe and season-ending ankle injury. Arian Foster is the clear starting RB, and he is a must-have in fantasy leagues. Slaton will only be a passing down and change-of-pace RB. Foster's ADP has moved to 78.4, which is the middle of the 7th round. You'll probably have to grab him in the 6th round to make sure, but he's well worth the pick as the starting RB/goal line back for the explosive Texans offense. He's a tremendous RB3.
Denver Broncos - Knowshon Moreno is nursing a hamstring injury, and while he's expected to be ready for week 1, his status for any preseason action is up in the air. Hamstring injuries can be tricky, so keep a close eye on his recovery. Hopefully he can get into a preseason game and at least show a small sign that he's good to go, but that's unlikely. The good news is that he's on track to start in week 1, so he's safe to draft if you believe in his talent. Kyle Orton's strong preseason has given me hope that he can turn in a solid RB2 season if the passing attack can hold their own.
Kansas City Chiefs - Thomas Jones has been running with the starters, so there is some concern about Charles' role to start the year. Based on what I saw last year, and the talent level of these two RBs at the respective stages in their careers, there's no question in my mind that Charles will win this job. The fact is that Todd Haley is playing head games with Charles to keep him hungry and encourage improvement, just like he tried to do with Dwayne Bowe. Unlike Dwayne Bowe in 2009, however, Charles is working hard. He's an excellent 2nd round choice and should pay big dividends when it matters most.
Oakland Raiders - Michael Bush looked good in the preseason while Darren McFadden nurses yet another injury. It's looking increasingly likely that Bush will be the starter and handle a lot of early down carries. He's not pulling away, but he's going to start and get first crack at goal line work. He's a solid RB3.
San Diego Chargers - Ryan Mathews looked very good in his first preseason, and he was out there in passing formations as well. Mathews looks like he's going to have a nice workload this season, and he might catch more passes than originally thought. He's better suited as a 2nd round RB, but he looks to be in store for a nice rookie season.
Dallas Cowboys - Marion Barber has had a very good offseason so far, and he's dropped the weight he gained in order to be an every down RB. He's been starting in practice, so it looks like he'll be the starter with Felix Jones seeing the field plenty. We're probably looking at a 50/50 timeshare here, but Barber is going to dominate goal line work. Jones is being over-drafted, and Barber is being under-valued.
New York Giants - This RB situation has undergone a complete reversal. Bradshaw has looked great while Jacobs has looked pedestrian. Bradshaw looks like he's inching towards a 50/50 carry split, and he's going to dominate receptions, so he's going to get more touches. Jacobs should handle goal line work, but it would not surprise me at all if Bradshaw gets a few as well. I'd much rather draft Bradshaw a couple rounds later.
Washington Redskins - Portis is entrenched as the starter, but I am no longer a fan of drafting him this year. He does not look explosive at all, and this backfield has Shanahan written all over it. Larry Johnson will get his touches, Ryan Torain looked solid during extensive work, and Keiland Williams impressed with his time on the field as well. Willie Parker isn't going to make this team barring some miracle this week when he starts in week 3.
Detroit Lions - Best has looked great during his time on the field in the preseason, and he was in during all situations, including a couple goal line plays. Best is a good value in the 3rd round of drafts, and only injuries will hold this kid back.
New Orleans Saints - Lynell Hamilton suffered a torn ACL, so he is out for the season. Pierre Thomas is the lone wolf in this backfield for now, and his upside is huge at the moment. The Saints have signed un-inspiring options such as Ladell Betts and DeShawn Wynn so far, and neither are a threat to Thomas' nor Bush's roles. Thomas is a good 3rd round RB.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Cadillac is again entrenched as the starter, and he looked solid in his first preseason action. The kid that made a name for himself is Kareem Huggins, and he has passed the declining Derrick Ward to be the #2 RB on this team. Given Cadillac's long injury history, Huggins is a great late round flier in all drafts this season.
Arizona Cardinals - Wells and Hightower are still battling, but just like the Charles/Jones battle, the better talent will win out here as well. Wells is going to be the starting RB for this team, and he will dominate carries.
Seattle Seahawks - Julius Jones started in the first preseason game. It's an absolute joke that this waste of space is taking reps from more talented players, but it is what it is. Justin Forsett is simply not going to be a feature RB on this team. Leon Washington has looked great, and he's going to start in preseason week 3. This is a good indicator that he is going to start in week 1 of the regular season as he's the most talented RB on this team if he's healthy. Forsett is solid as well, so this is shaping up to be true committee. I'd rather draft Washington later than Forsett, but honestly I'm not excited about anyone here.
Summary: Lots of interesting information so far. I think the biggest stories so far are:
1) Ben Tate's injury, although as I mentioned above, the severity isn't entirely known by the public right now. Arian Foster is a starter.
2) Lynell Hamilton's injury: Pierre Thomas isn't out of the water yet in his competition for goal line carries, but the Saints aren't signing any true threats for his role.
3) Ronnie Brown's health: He looks 100% healthy again. He provided excellent value while healthy last season as a 3rd round pick, and he's going even later this year. Health is always a concern with him, but if you can land 3 reliable players in front of him, he's well worth the risk.
There's still a couple RB battles worth keeping an eye on, so I'll write further articles as the preseason progresses.
Monday, August 9, 2010
WR5 Draft Guide Update
I have made some slight updates to the WR5 section. I have removed Devin Thomas. He's still running with the third stringers, and he's supposedly having a hard time separating in practice. He's definitely a name to keep in mind, but he's yet again having an unimpressive training camp. I have also removed Arrelious Benn. Tampa Bay is not going to produce 2 starting fantasy WRs, and Mike Williams has looked far more impressive. Williams is a definite starter as to where Benn is still battling for a starting job.
Finally, Johnny Knox's ADP is shooting up draft boards for good reason. He's a very talented WR who, by all accounts, is having an outstanding offseason. He's acclimated very well to Mike Martz's offense, and his skill set is a perfect fit. Like I mentioned in his section, I would have no problem drafting him in the 8th or 9th round as a 3rd WR. I definitely want him on my teams this season.
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
Brett Favre Says He Will Not Return
Breaking news has Brett Favre informing Vikings' team officials that he will not return this season, citing his ankle as a continued problem. Given this is Brett Favre and how he loves to change his mind to keep himself in the media, I'm sure this isn't the last of the story. For the sake of fantasy football, however, all Vikings outside of Adrian Peterson need to be immediately downgraded until this situation is figured out. Sidney Rice was already overrated because of his continued hip problems, but this will affect Harvin, Berrian, and Shiancoe quite a bit as well should Favre not play. Rice is somewhere between a WR2/3 now, Harvin is a risky WR3, and Berrian is nothing more than a late flier. I was already avoiding Shiancoe as anything other than a TE2, and I wouldn't bother drafting him at all now. Adrian Peterson will resume being the sole focal point of the offense, so I would still take him in the top two picks.
Sunday, August 1, 2010
Draft Guide Updates
I made updates to both Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe as I've read nothing but great news about Bowe's dedication this offseason. That's big news considering that has been his biggest enemy in his career. I made updates to both Antonio Bryant and Terrell Owens in light of Owens' signing in Cincinnati. Finally, I made updates to both Knowshon Moreno and Dez Bryant as they suffered noteworthy injuries in practice over the weekend.
I completed my draft guide last week, but I will make updates as necessary as news and injuries occur. Enjoy!
I completed my draft guide last week, but I will make updates as necessary as news and injuries occur. Enjoy!
Sunday, July 25, 2010
2010 TE2 Value Analysis
I'm going to highlight a few guys you should keep an eye on with a flier TE2 pick rather than list everyone:
Greg Olsen - It's good to see fantasy nation being smart this year. Mike Martz kills the fantasy value of TEs because he simply values them far more as a blocker than a receiver. Olsen is solely a backup, but his talent is worth a late round flier to see if he can buck the trend.
Dustin Keller - He's a very good young pass catcher at the TE spot, but with the run-first offense combined with the acquisition of Santonio Holmes, there simply won't be enough targets for him to consistently be a fantasy producer. Still, like Olsen, his talent is good enough for a stash.
John Carlson - I'm a big fan of Carlson this year, but I think he's better as a backup to mitigate the risk. He's a very talented pass catcher, but he was mostly used as a blocker last year. With a lower price tag this season, I think Carlson could turn into a TE1 as Carroll will definitely use him more as a receiver after signing Chris Baker to handle blocking duties. He's an ideal TE2.
Heath Miller - He's being buried in drafts this year, but he had a very solid 2009 season. He'll probably start slow until Ben Roethlisberger returns, but he could be valuable depth after that. He's a good stash.
Ben Watson - Watson continuously disappointed in New England despite excellent talent, drawing ire from scouts saying that he's simply not a very good football player. However, he's landed on a team that has very little in terms of receiving talent, and someone will have to catch the ball. He's worth an end-of-draft flier to see if the light turns on for him thanks to a lack of better receiving options.
Tony Scheffler - Scheffler got buried last season by Josh McDaniels whose offense simply does not use the TE much. Detroit traded for him, and while Brandon Pettigrew remains a threat for snaps, I don't think they acquired him to sit on the bench. He's projects more as a slot receiver in Detroit's improved offense, and he could re-emerge as a fantasy threat like he did in Denver during Cutler's final season there. He's another solid TE2 stash.
2010 TE1 Value Analysis
1) Antonio Gates
ADP: 46.4 (4th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
Value: Slightly Overvalued
Overview: Gates returned to fantasy prominence last year after his 2008 season was ruined by nagging injuries. Gates proved that when he's healthy, he is still among the elite at his position. As I've detailed with both Phillip Rivers and Vincent Jackson, there's a potentially serious problem for this offense. Vincent Jackson is suspended for 3 games, and there isn't much WR depth on this team after him. Gates will be targeted plenty while VJax is out, but he'll also be the defense's sole focus for the Chargers' passing game. Plus, 3 games is the minimum amount of games that Jackson will miss as several outlets fear that his holdout is for real. I think Gates has some serious risks this season, and there's no point in taking him as the first TE in a draft so deep at the position.
2) Dallas Clark
ADP: 48.8 (5th round, 1st pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
Overview: Dallas Clark is an excellent fantasy TE when he's healthy, and he's been healthy for the past 3 seasons, which has seen him make sizeable receiving yardage increases in each of those 3 seasons. He topped out at an incredible 1,106 yards last season, but beware. He posted 60 catches for 703 yards in the 1st half while the Colts struggled to find consistency outside of Wayne and Clark last season, but once Garcon and Collie emerged, Clark's production fell to 40 catches for 403 yards in the 2nd half. I think his 2nd half production is closer to what we should expect in 2010 thanks to the fact the Colts have more weapons, and we know Manning will not lock onto targets over the course of a season. Clark will remain a red-zone threat and post good yardage, but as the 2nd TE picked, I'd pass at this price as his ADP is based off of last year's misleading production.
3) Vernon Davis
ADP: 55.1 (5th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
ADP: 55.1 (5th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
Overview: Vernon Davis finally matched his immense talent with production last season, and he was easily the fantasy MVP at the TE position with his low ADP. He won't catch anyone by surprise this season, but thankfully for him, Frank Gore and Michael Crabtree will give defenses plenty to think about. Vernon Davis will probably lose a few TDs this season, the balanced offense will allow him to avoid too much extra defensive attention. I think last season is a solid baseline for his production, but with a couple less TDs.
4) Jermichael Finley
ADP: 59.8 (5th round, 12th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
Overview: There aren't too many TEs picked in the top 5 coming off of a 676 yard, 5 TD season, but there's plenty of reason to be excited about Finley this season. He accomplished this while battling an annoying knee injury for most of the season, he's going to start at TE after not doing so for part of last season, he posted a monster 6/159 line in his only playoff game, and he's playing for an explosive passing offense. There's been positive feedback this offseason about Finley staying dedicated to improving, so that's comforting after problems with that in the past. He's also the team's best red zone weapon with his tremendous size and leaping ability from the TE position. He has monster upside, and he's a great 5th round pick.
5) Jason Witten
ADP: 62.4 (6th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
ADP: 62.4 (6th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
Overview: Witten struggled a bit in the 2nd half of 2008 and the first half of 2009, but he really took off during the 2nd half of last season, posting 639 yards. The disappointing part of his season came in the TD department where he crashed to 2 TDs. While he should improve on that total in 2009, unfortunately the addition of Dez Bryant gives the Dallas offense another mouth to feed, and Witten has never been a huge part of the red zone offense. I think you can expect Witten's yardage to decrease some with Bryant's arrival, and I don't expect a big bounce back in TDs either, so I think Witten will be slightly disappointing this season.
6) Tony Gonzalez
ADP: 68.0 (6th round, 8th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
Overview: Gonzalez posted reliable stats last season during his first year in Atlanta, but his yardage total shrunk to it's worst total since 2002. Atlanta will return its offense intact, and they do figure to pass more in 2010 as Matt Ryan continues to mature and take on more responsibility. With Gonzalez starting to age, I think he'll remain reliable, but he'll probably post similar stats this season, so you're paying for consistency. There are more exciting options later in the draft that come at a cheaper cost.
7) Brent Celek
ADP: 70.1 (6th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
Overview: Celek created some buzz during the 2008 playoffs, but few too many people too notice, and he was one of my favorite TE sleepers last season. Celek completely delivered last season, posting almost 1,000 yards with 8 TDs. McNabb is now gone, but Celek and Kolb are very close friends, and Celek posted 2/3 100 yard games when Kolb started last season. I think he'll again post similar numbers, and I'd much rather take him than Witten and Gonzalez at the relatively same price tag.
8) Owen Daniels
ADP: 88.6 (8th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
ADP: 88.6 (8th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
Overview: What a shame. Owen Daniels was the #1 TE in fantasy football prior to a torn ACL that knocked him out for the season in week 8. Houston returns essentially the same offense, so Daniels should remain an integral part of their attack by working the middle of the field and occasionally going deep. Keep a close eye on him in the preseason. His health is the only thing standing in his way of providing top 5 value at a slight discount, but the uncertainty of his recovery obviously plays a role. Keep a close eye on how he looks this preseason, but I think a slow start will prevent him from being a bargain. Honestly, I'd rather pass.
9) Visanthe Shiancoe
ADP: 100.5 (9th round, 4th pick)
Value: Overvalued
ADP: 100.5 (9th round, 4th pick)
Value: Overvalued
Overview: This one is simple. Shiancoe's value is strictly tied to his TDs, and TDs can be flaky from year to year. I don't doubt that Shiancoe will remain a valuable red zone threat for Favre and the Vikings this year, but I'd far prefer to draft someone who is posting more reliable yardage totals, and thus more reliable fantasy numbers.
10) Zach Miller
ADP: 108.5 (9th round, 12th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
Overview: Miller is my favorite TE value this season. This guy has nearly posted back-to-back 800 yard seasons with an absolute mess at QB, but the Raiders have dumped Jamarcus Russell and traded for Jason Campbell. Campbell is hardly an elite QB talent, but he's a good leader, a solid passer, and he likes throwing to his TEs. The Raiders offense will improve this year, and their WRs are not going to dominate targets. I think Miller's baseline is Chris Cooley during his better years, which is in the mid-800s for yardage, and probably 5-6 TDs, and he has a bit of upside on that as well given he almost got there with terrible QB play. Go get him.
11) Kellen Winslow
ADP: 110.5 (10th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
ADP: 110.5 (10th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
Overview: Winslow continues to battle knee problems, but he's been, to use his words, a soldier while playing 16 games in 3 of the last 4 season. Tampa has finally found a solid young QB in Josh Freeman, and their additions of Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams has injected exciting talent into their passing attack. Winslow has a good chance of leading his team in receptions again as their veteran go-to receiver, and while his knees always make him a risky choice, he's a good value at this price.
12) Chris Cooley
ADP: 111.4 (10th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Undervalued
Overview: Cooley was on pace to post his usual reliable stats last season, but unfortunately a torn ACL wrecked his season as well. The good news is that the Redskins upgraded at head coach with Mike Shanahan and at QB with Donovan McNabb. Shanahan has always utilized his TEs quite often in his offense (Shannon Sharpe, Tony Scheffler), and McNabb has always consistently thrown to his TEs. The bad news is that Fred Davis made an impact on the passing game with Cooley out last season, so he'll have some competition for snaps. Ultimately I find it hard to believe that Cooley will have his starting job taken from him, and Shanahan also used a lot of 2 TE sets. He's a bit of a risk coming off of a torn ACL and having a bit of competition for his job, so you should back him up with another TE, but he does have upside. Keep a close eye on him during the preseason.
Update: Cooley is becoming McNabb's go-to target for this team, and with Moss keeping defenses honest down the field, Cooley will have plenty of room to work underneath. Fred Davis might scare some people, but Cooley has re-emerged as the unquestioned starting TE. He's a great value.
Update: Cooley is becoming McNabb's go-to target for this team, and with Moss keeping defenses honest down the field, Cooley will have plenty of room to work underneath. Fred Davis might scare some people, but Cooley has re-emerged as the unquestioned starting TE. He's a great value.
TE1 Thoughts: There is a lot of depth this year, and I will have no problem waiting until the first 2 waves of TEs are gone before taking two, probably in the 9th round or later. I would feel more comfortable doubling up on TEs in rounds 9 and 10 (or later) than using a 4th-6th round pick to land one of the early ones. I feel there's too much value at the position this year, and I'd rather use my earlier picks on more important positions.
Friday, July 23, 2010
2010 WR5 Value Analysis
I'm going to highlight a few guys you should keep an eye on with a flier WR5 pick rather than list everyone:
Mike Williams - Williams is a talented rookie WR with Tampa Bay, and he's been making noise at Tampa's camp all offseason. He is locked into a starting job at split end, and he's going to be a play-maker. His deep speed matches well with Freeman's big arm, but it will probably take a year for Williams to develop a well-rounded game. He should be targeted often to help make up for that, however.
Laurent Robinson - A rookie QB is never great news for fantasy WRs, but someone has to step up in STL. Laurent Robinson looked really good last year prior to a torn knee ligament, and he fits the profile of a true #1 WR with his size/speed combination. He's a solid stash as a WR5.
Devin Hester / Johnny Knox - Thanks to last season's strong finish, Aromashodu is getting picked well ahead of these two. You know Martz will turn this passing game into a good one, and there's going to be at least one, if not two, fantasy contributors from this passing attack. Since this situation is up in the air, it might make more sense to pass on Aromashodu's higher price tag and take one of these guys instead. Knox has been making a ton of noise in camp, and I'd probably take him first. His ADP is rising, and I would honestly have no problem drafting him as high as a WR3 at this point.
Bernard Berrian - Favre is back, Rice is out half of the season, and Harvin's headaches are unpredictable. The Vikings need to throw to someone, and Berrian is still a very good deep threat. He's a great WR5.
Jabar Gaffney - Gaffney blew up the final two weeks of the season, especially in week 17 when Brandon Marshall was suspended, and he heads into the 2010 season as the starting Broncos WR opposite whatever role Eddie Royal plays. He's not a big name by any means, but he's a McDaniels type of player, and he'll produce while he's starting. He's a good candidate stash, and might actually provide better value than Eddie Royal.
James Jones - He's worth a stash in case Donald Driver isn't the same after his dual offseason knee surgeries. He's bee more productive than Jordy Nelson when on the field, and he'd likely start opposite Jennings should Driver fall apart. He's especially attractive if you draft Driver.
Jacoby Jones - Kubiak wants Jones to win the starting job opposite Andre Johnson, and he certainly has the talent to do it, but like several other WRs I've talked about here, he's gotta be right mentally. I think he's an excellent stash if he wins the job given the explosive nature of Houston's passing attack. He's a perfect WR5.
WR5 Thoughts: There's a lot of good talent here, and while it's risky, if you wanted to stock up on other positions and then grab your WR depth here, I don't think you'd be doing yourself a disservice. I really like Mike Williams and Jabar Gaffney as guys this late, but there's a lot of other interesting prospects as well.
Mike Williams - Williams is a talented rookie WR with Tampa Bay, and he's been making noise at Tampa's camp all offseason. He is locked into a starting job at split end, and he's going to be a play-maker. His deep speed matches well with Freeman's big arm, but it will probably take a year for Williams to develop a well-rounded game. He should be targeted often to help make up for that, however.
Laurent Robinson - A rookie QB is never great news for fantasy WRs, but someone has to step up in STL. Laurent Robinson looked really good last year prior to a torn knee ligament, and he fits the profile of a true #1 WR with his size/speed combination. He's a solid stash as a WR5.
Devin Hester / Johnny Knox - Thanks to last season's strong finish, Aromashodu is getting picked well ahead of these two. You know Martz will turn this passing game into a good one, and there's going to be at least one, if not two, fantasy contributors from this passing attack. Since this situation is up in the air, it might make more sense to pass on Aromashodu's higher price tag and take one of these guys instead. Knox has been making a ton of noise in camp, and I'd probably take him first. His ADP is rising, and I would honestly have no problem drafting him as high as a WR3 at this point.
Bernard Berrian - Favre is back, Rice is out half of the season, and Harvin's headaches are unpredictable. The Vikings need to throw to someone, and Berrian is still a very good deep threat. He's a great WR5.
Jabar Gaffney - Gaffney blew up the final two weeks of the season, especially in week 17 when Brandon Marshall was suspended, and he heads into the 2010 season as the starting Broncos WR opposite whatever role Eddie Royal plays. He's not a big name by any means, but he's a McDaniels type of player, and he'll produce while he's starting. He's a good candidate stash, and might actually provide better value than Eddie Royal.
James Jones - He's worth a stash in case Donald Driver isn't the same after his dual offseason knee surgeries. He's bee more productive than Jordy Nelson when on the field, and he'd likely start opposite Jennings should Driver fall apart. He's especially attractive if you draft Driver.
Jacoby Jones - Kubiak wants Jones to win the starting job opposite Andre Johnson, and he certainly has the talent to do it, but like several other WRs I've talked about here, he's gotta be right mentally. I think he's an excellent stash if he wins the job given the explosive nature of Houston's passing attack. He's a perfect WR5.
WR5 Thoughts: There's a lot of good talent here, and while it's risky, if you wanted to stock up on other positions and then grab your WR depth here, I don't think you'd be doing yourself a disservice. I really like Mike Williams and Jabar Gaffney as guys this late, but there's a lot of other interesting prospects as well.
2010 WR4 Value Analysis
37) Antonio Bryant
ADP: 99.1 (9th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Undraftable
Value: Undraftable
Overview: Everything has changed since I originally wrote this. The Bengals signed Terrell Owens to replace Bryant on the outside, so the best Bryant can hope for early in the season is being the slot receiver. The reason for this replacement was Bryant's inability to get past his knee problems as he's consistently struggled with them this offseason. Bryant is not draftable.
38) Santonio Holmes
ADP: 100.5 (9th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
Overview: By comparison, I'd rather draft Holmes as a WR4 than Edwards as a WR3. Given what Holmes has shown on the field the last several seasons, there's no doubt in my mind that he will be starting in week 5 after his suspension is handed down, and he'll have a shot at WR2, but at least WR3 value. The worst case scenario is Edwards blows up and keeps the starting job, and then Holmes plays second fiddle on a run-first offense when he returns, but I just cannot see that happening with the way Edwards has played over the past two seasons. I trust in Holmes talent and think he'll be the leading Jets WR from the point he returns to the end of the season.
39) Malcom Floyd
ADP: 104.2 (9th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
ADP: 104.2 (9th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
Overview: Floyd never once met expectations last year. He was expected to be a threat opposite Vincent Jackson, but instead he didn't post a big week until week 17 when it likely didn't matter anymore. This season Floyd has to step up in VJax's absence. I think he'll be pretty valuable while VJax is out based on targets, but after that it's anyone's guess. The thing is that VJax looks likely to not play for a while, if at all for the Chargers again. For a WR4, he's a good pick. There's talent in that big body of his, but he needs to show it more than he did last season.
40) Derrick Mason
ADP: 104.7 (9th round, 8th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
Overview: Mason, like Driver above, has been an ageless wonder the past couple seasons, exceeding his draft slot while continuing to produce as Baltimore's go-to WR. Mason contemplated retirement, but ultimately signed on to play for one more season. Unfortunately for him, the Ravens traded for Anquan Boldin, so Mason will be shifted into as secondary role as mostly a possession receiver. His upside is obviously limited now, and with the addition of Donte Stallworth as well, his snaps could be scaled back a bit. Furthermore, Mason is at risk for falling off the proverbial cliff production-wise, so it's best to stay away this season.
41) Lee Evans
ADP: 106.2 (9th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
ADP: 106.2 (9th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued
Overview: Poor Lee Evans. This guy is a top 10 WR in terms of pure talent, but Buffalo has refused to either get a consistent QB or consistent help at the WR position opposite him. It's a shame that most of his career has been ruined by the franchise he plays for, although you have to wonder why he decided to re-sign when it was clear they didn't have much going for them. Unfortunately for Evans, Buffalo has once again neglected those positions, instead opting to return mostly the same offense yet again. Buffalo acquired Brian Brohm who was once considered to be a possible first round talent, but Green Bay thought so little of him that they let him walk instead of being Rodgers' backup. Brohm is in a 3-way battle with Edwards and Fitzpatrick to be the starting QB, but we've already seen what little Evans can do with those two under center. James Hardy has been a huge bust, but only Steve Johnson and Chad Jackson stand in the way of him starting again. All that aside, I think Lee Evans hit rock bottom last year, and I think he can most certainly climb into the top 36 WRs again this season. I will happily draft him as a WR4 this year.
42) Kenny Britt
ADP: 107.5 (9th round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued
Overview: Britt was mostly non-existent in the first half, but he posted a solid 405 yards and 3 TDs in the 2nd half. He is unquestionably the most talented Titans WR, and he should take over the go-to WR role for the offense and be a value pick. However, he showed up to summer camp completely out of shape, so it's clear that his work ethic is a big question. So, this is a classic case of talent versus work ethic, but at a WR4 price, he's a solid player to speculate on. Hopefully the fact he isn't being given a starting job will be the motivation he needs to get himself right by the start of the season. Keep an eye on him in preseason and see if he earns that starting role because he could provide very good value if he wins it.
Update: Britt has had a disastrous offseason, and he will not start. He's nothing more than a WR5 flier, if that. Just don't forget him.
Update: Britt has had a disastrous offseason, and he will not start. He's nothing more than a WR5 flier, if that. Just don't forget him.
43) Demaryius Thomas
ADP: 114.6 (10th round, 6th pick)
Value: Undraftable
Overview: Thomas is a great WR talent from Georgia Tech who has good size, good speed, and can be an all-around WR at the NFL level. The problem is that he's recovering from foot surgery, and he's still not doing much on it yet. WR is one of the hardest positions to make an immediate fantasy impact from, so any lost time is a red flag on his fantasy value, and it's not known yet when he'll fully return to practice. The other problem is the likely rotation that McDaniels will use at the WR position this year as well. I'd shy away from drafting Thomas this year, but if someone drafts and drops him, keep an eye on him as a possible producer in the 2nd half.
Update: Thomas has suffered another setback with his foot, and he will not be ready to start the season. Remember the name, but do not draft him.
Update: Thomas has suffered another setback with his foot, and he will not be ready to start the season. Remember the name, but do not draft him.
44) Jerricho Cotchery
ADP: 118.0 (10th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
ADP: 118.0 (10th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
Overview: Cotchery started off in excellent fashion, but then an injury de-railed his season, and Rex Ryan reeled in Sanchez's passing attempts in favor of a run-heavy offense. I've always liked Cotchery as a player, but unfortunately he'll be fighting for a starting job now with the addition of Santonio Holmes. Like I mentioned in the profiles for Edwards and Holmes, this situation could play out in a number of ways, and it all starts with how Edwards plays the first 4 weeks. I do know that Cotchery will start in weeks 1-4. If Edwards flashes his old form, Cotchery will probably shift to the slot and come off the field more in favor of Holmes. If Edwards falls flat again, it's possible that Cotchery will retain his starting job, and Edwards will move to a situational role. At any rate, Cotchery has the least upside of the 3 not only in talent, but also in situation as well as I don't believe he controls his own destiny. He's a solid WR5, but drafting him as your WR4 and counting on him for a contribution during bye weeks is too risky for my taste.
45) Eddie Royal
ADP: 119.5 (10th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
ADP: 119.5 (10th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
Overview: Royal was a huge bust last season. Before the season started, there was a lot of talk about how he would take the Wes Welker role in the offense and lead the team in catches. Instead, McDaniels put him outside and made him consistently run deep routes. This year, supposedly, Royal is actually going to be moved into the slot, but it's anyone's guess as to whether that will happen or not. The fact is that outside of Demaryius Thomas, who isn't fully healthy and is inexperienced, Royal is easily the most talented WR on this roster among Jabar Gaffney, Brandon Stokley, and another rookie Eric Decker, who's recovering from his own foot surgery. Keep a close eye on how he's used in preseason before making him your WR4, but he hasn't lost the talent he flashed in 2008. It all comes down to how he's used, and he could provide a nice return on investment.
46) Austin Collie
ADP: 125.4 (11th round, 5th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
Overview: Austin Collie, like teammate Pierre Garcon, provided a big lift to the Colts offense when Anthony Gonzalez went down for the season. He consistently made tough catches over the middle and provided solid play-making skills. Collie has good hands, and while he lacks game-breaking speed, he's quick and can get open. Unfortunately for Collie, since he's not as talented as Garcon or a healthy Anthony Gonzalez, he has the most to lose if Gonzalez is indeed 100% again. If Gonzalez doesn't make it back from whatever knee injuries ruined his 2009 season, Collie would be worth a WR4 pick. If Gonzalez is healthy, Collie will likely lose his job and not provide any fantasy value. He's a player to monitor in training camp and preseason action.
47) Terrell Owens
ADP: 125.9 (11th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
ADP: 125.9 (11th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued
Overview: Owens, like the rest of the Buffalo offense, was mostly non-existent last season. Owens is obviously done as a top-tier WR, but I think he can still help out the right team as a secondary WR, and I also think he could still provide WR3 value if he gets a starting job on a reasonable offense. Fortunately, both of those things happened. The Bengals signed Terrell Owens, and he'll start opposite Chad Ochocinco, so he'll be facing single coverage. Just like with Ochocinco, if Palmer regains some arm strength and accuracy, then I think Owens can be helpful in the right matchups. However, if his new team and name recognition pushes him into WR3 territory, tread carefully.
48) Kevin Walter
ADP: 128.9 (11th round, 9th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued
Overview: Walter was a bust in 2009. Owen Daniels usurped his over-the-middle catches while turning Walter into an after-thought for the Houston offense last season. When Daniels went down, I expected Walter to resume his 2008 role, but he never reclaimed that magic he had in 2008. With Gary Kubiak hoping that promising youngster Jacoby Jones can take the secondary WR role and Daniels coming back from his torn ACL, Walter's chances are decreasing by the minute. I'd much rather take a chance with Jones later in the draft than grab Walter.
WR4 Thoughts: We dropping deeper into the WR pool and we're starting to see less and less upside in this group. Lee Evans will be the #1 WR on his team, but his surrounding offense is absolutely awful. Kenny Britt can be the #1 WR on his team, but he's going to have to earn the job by working hard, which is something he obviously did not do once the season is over. Royal could lead his team in catches, but he's threatened with WR committee in Denver. Holmes could lead his team in receiving yardage while he's on the field, but he's suspended for 4 games. Bryant, Floyd, and possibly Owens, if he signs, will play clear 2nd fiddle on their teams, but could provide solid production. I lean towards the guys who will have a clearly defined role for when I need them during bye weeks and injuries. All of the guys I have mentioned in this paragraph apply, with Britt and Evans having the highest upside of the bunch.
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