2010 WR4 Value Analysis

37) Antonio Bryant

ADP: 99.1 (9th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Undraftable

Overview: Everything has changed since I originally wrote this.  The Bengals signed Terrell Owens to replace Bryant on the outside, so the best Bryant can hope for early in the season is being the slot receiver.  The reason for this replacement was Bryant's inability to get past his knee problems as he's consistently struggled with them this offseason.  Bryant is not draftable.

38) Santonio Holmes

ADP: 100.5 (9th round, 4th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: By comparison, I'd rather draft Holmes as a WR4 than Edwards as a WR3.  Given what Holmes has shown on the field the last several seasons, there's no doubt in my mind that he will be starting in week 5 after his suspension is handed down, and he'll have a shot at WR2, but at least WR3 value.  The worst case scenario is Edwards blows up and keeps the starting job, and then Holmes plays second fiddle on a run-first offense when he returns, but I just cannot see that happening with the way Edwards has played over the past two seasons.  I trust in Holmes talent and think he'll be the leading Jets WR from the point he returns to the end of the season.

39) Malcom Floyd
ADP: 104.2 (9th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Floyd never once met expectations last year.  He was expected to be a threat opposite Vincent Jackson, but instead he didn't post a big week until week 17 when it likely didn't matter anymore.  This season Floyd has to step up in VJax's absence.  I think he'll be pretty valuable while VJax is out based on targets, but after that it's anyone's guess.  The thing is that VJax looks likely to not play for a while, if at all for the Chargers again.  For a WR4, he's a good pick.  There's talent in that big body of his, but he needs to show it more than he did last season.

40) Derrick Mason

ADP: 104.7 (9th round, 8th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Mason, like Driver above, has been an ageless wonder the past couple seasons, exceeding his draft slot while continuing to produce as Baltimore's go-to WR.  Mason contemplated retirement, but ultimately signed on to play for one more season.  Unfortunately for him, the Ravens traded for Anquan Boldin, so Mason will be shifted into as secondary role as mostly a possession receiver.  His upside is obviously limited now, and with the addition of Donte Stallworth as well, his snaps could be scaled back a bit.  Furthermore, Mason is at risk for falling off the proverbial cliff production-wise, so it's best to stay away this season.

41) Lee Evans
ADP: 106.2 (9th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued

Overview: Poor Lee Evans.  This guy is a top 10 WR in terms of pure talent, but Buffalo has refused to either get a consistent QB or consistent help at the WR position opposite him.  It's a shame that most of his career has been ruined by the franchise he plays for, although you have to wonder why he decided to re-sign when it was clear they didn't have much going for them.  Unfortunately for Evans, Buffalo has once again neglected those positions, instead opting to return mostly the same offense yet again.  Buffalo acquired Brian Brohm who was once considered to be a possible first round talent, but Green Bay thought so little of him that they let him walk instead of being Rodgers' backup.  Brohm is in a 3-way battle with Edwards and Fitzpatrick to be the starting QB, but we've already seen what little Evans can do with those two under center.  James Hardy has been a huge bust, but only Steve Johnson and Chad Jackson stand in the way of him starting again.    All that aside, I think Lee Evans hit rock bottom last year, and I think he can most certainly climb into the top 36 WRs again this season.  I will happily draft him as a WR4 this year.

42) Kenny Britt

ADP: 107.5 (9th round, 11th pick)

Value: Overvalued

Overview: Britt was mostly non-existent in the first half, but he posted a solid 405 yards and 3 TDs in the 2nd half.  He is unquestionably the most talented Titans WR, and he should take over the go-to WR role for the offense and be a value pick.  However, he showed up to summer camp completely out of shape, so it's clear that his work ethic is a big question.  So, this is a classic case of talent versus work ethic, but at a WR4 price, he's a solid player to speculate on.  Hopefully the fact he isn't being given a starting job will be the motivation he needs to get himself right by the start of the season.  Keep an eye on him in preseason and see if he earns that starting role because he could provide very good value if he wins it.

Update: Britt has had a disastrous offseason, and he will not start.  He's nothing more than a WR5 flier, if that.  Just don't forget him.

43) Demaryius Thomas

ADP: 114.6 (10th round, 6th pick)

Value: Undraftable

Overview: Thomas is a great WR talent from Georgia Tech who has good size, good speed, and can be an all-around WR at the NFL level.  The problem is that he's recovering from foot surgery, and he's still not doing much on it yet.  WR is one of the hardest positions to make an immediate fantasy impact from, so any lost time is a red flag on his fantasy value, and it's not known yet when he'll fully return to practice.  The other problem is the likely rotation that McDaniels will use at the WR position this year as well.  I'd shy away from drafting Thomas this year, but if someone drafts and drops him, keep an eye on him as a possible producer in the 2nd half.

Update: Thomas has suffered another setback with his foot, and he will not be ready to start the season.  Remember the name, but do not draft him.

44) Jerricho Cotchery
ADP: 118.0 (10th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Cotchery started off in excellent fashion, but then an injury de-railed his season, and Rex Ryan reeled in Sanchez's passing attempts in favor of a run-heavy offense.  I've always liked Cotchery as a player, but unfortunately he'll be fighting for a starting job now with the addition of Santonio Holmes.  Like I mentioned in the profiles for Edwards and Holmes, this situation could play out in a number of ways, and it all starts with how Edwards plays the first 4 weeks.  I do know that Cotchery will start in weeks 1-4.  If Edwards flashes his old form, Cotchery will probably shift to the slot and come off the field more in favor of Holmes.  If Edwards falls flat again, it's possible that Cotchery will retain his starting job, and Edwards will move to a situational role.  At any rate, Cotchery has the least upside of the 3 not only in talent, but also in situation as well as I don't believe he controls his own destiny.  He's a solid WR5, but drafting him as your WR4 and counting on him for a contribution during bye weeks is too risky for my taste.

45) Eddie Royal
ADP: 119.5 (10th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Royal was a huge bust last season.  Before the season started, there was a lot of talk about how he would take the Wes Welker role in the offense and lead the team in catches.  Instead, McDaniels put him outside and made him consistently run deep routes.  This year, supposedly, Royal is actually going to be moved into the slot, but it's anyone's guess as to whether that will happen or not.  The fact is that outside of Demaryius Thomas, who isn't fully healthy and is inexperienced, Royal is easily the most talented WR on this roster among Jabar Gaffney, Brandon Stokley, and another rookie Eric Decker, who's recovering from his own foot surgery.  Keep a close eye on how he's used in preseason before making him your WR4, but he hasn't lost the talent he flashed in 2008.  It all comes down to how he's used, and he could provide a nice return on investment.

46) Austin Collie

ADP: 125.4 (11th round, 5th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Austin Collie, like teammate Pierre Garcon, provided a big lift to the Colts offense when Anthony Gonzalez went down for the season.  He consistently made tough catches over the middle and provided solid play-making skills. Collie has good hands, and while he lacks game-breaking speed, he's quick and can get open.  Unfortunately for Collie, since he's not as talented as Garcon or a healthy Anthony Gonzalez, he has the most to lose if Gonzalez is indeed 100% again.  If Gonzalez doesn't make it back from whatever knee injuries ruined his 2009 season, Collie would be worth a WR4 pick.  If Gonzalez is healthy, Collie will likely lose his job and not provide any fantasy value.  He's a player to monitor in training camp and preseason action.

47) Terrell Owens
ADP: 125.9 (11th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Owens, like the rest of the Buffalo offense, was mostly non-existent last season.  Owens is obviously done as a top-tier WR, but I think he can still help out the right team as a secondary WR, and I also think he could still provide WR3 value if he gets a starting job on a reasonable offense.  Fortunately, both of those things happened.  The Bengals signed Terrell Owens, and he'll start opposite Chad Ochocinco, so he'll be facing single coverage.  Just like with Ochocinco, if Palmer regains some arm strength and accuracy, then I think Owens can be helpful in the right matchups.  However, if his new team and name recognition pushes him into WR3 territory, tread carefully.

48) Kevin Walter

ADP: 128.9 (11th round, 9th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Walter was a bust in 2009.  Owen Daniels usurped his over-the-middle catches while turning Walter into an after-thought for the Houston offense last season.  When Daniels went down, I expected Walter to resume his 2008 role, but he never reclaimed that magic he had in 2008.  With Gary Kubiak hoping that promising youngster Jacoby Jones can take the secondary WR role and Daniels coming back from his torn ACL, Walter's chances are decreasing by the minute.  I'd much rather take a chance with Jones later in the draft than grab Walter.

WR4 Thoughts: We dropping deeper into the WR pool and we're starting to see less and less upside in this group.  Lee Evans will be the #1 WR on his team, but his surrounding offense is absolutely awful.  Kenny Britt can be the #1 WR on his team, but he's going to have to earn the job by working hard, which is something he obviously did not do once the season is over.  Royal could lead his team in catches, but he's threatened with WR committee in Denver.  Holmes could lead his team in receiving yardage while he's on the field, but he's suspended for 4 games.  Bryant, Floyd, and possibly Owens, if he signs, will play clear 2nd fiddle on their teams, but could provide solid production.  I lean towards the guys who will have a clearly defined role for when I need them during bye weeks and injuries.  All of the guys I have mentioned in this paragraph apply, with Britt and Evans having the highest upside of the bunch.