Florida Marlins closer Henry Owens has been placed on the disabled list with right rotator cuff tendonitis. One of this year's surprises will be out for a few weeks, and I believe this injury is just treated with rest. Unfortunately, this gives Marlins' manager Fredi Gonzalez the opportunity to invent a reason to go back to Jorge Julio as his closer. Given his comments earlier this week about wanting to see Julio back in this role, this is likely the scenario that will play out.
Fantasy Impact: Go ahead and put Owens on your DL, but pay close attention to what happens in his absence. I would not bother picking up Julio...let someone else drool over his save potential while you keep your ERA and WHIP nice and slim. Instead, pick up Taylor Tankersley and wait for Julio to explode like the volcano he is if you have an empty roster spot and feel like placing a "futures" bet.
Friday, May 11, 2007
Zambrano and Hallday Suck, Escobar Rules, And One Hot Johnson
Carlos Zambrano: Seriously, can the Cubs just start using him in the 2nd inning? Another first inning blowup led to 3 runs before the Cubs offense even got to hit. Again, he settled down after that and pitched good baseball the following 5 innings. He gave up 6 runs in total, 4 earned, with two coming after Murton screwed up a flyball that should have been out #3. He's actually pitching well the last three outings in the overall sense, but 2 first inning blowups have made his lines look worse. I'm sure he'll get this figured out, and his buy-low window is still wide open.
Jason Bay: 2-4 with a double and a bomb. Hopefully this is the start of another power outburst as he's still underproducing so far this early season. His numbers aren't bad enough to warrant much of a buy-low, but perhaps you can persuade his owner that the surrounding lineup is bad enough to get him at a discount with somewhat sub-par numbers thus far. Wouldn't hurt.
Roy Halladay: Yuck. 5 IP, 11 H, 7 ER. That's two straight bad outings from Halladay, and it's worth nothing that he never really did anything to completely fix his forearm problems. Maybe it's bothering him again, maybe not. His next start is a big one for his owners because 3 straight ugly appearances from a pitcher this good would be bad news.
Kelvim Escobar: Who had him benched yesterday? I did! Double yuck. 9 innings of shutout ball with 9 Ks against the powerful Cleveland offense. Escobar is on a serious roll, and now affords you a sell high opportunity because this man cannot stay off the disabled list for very long. If you can get a top notch starter for him in return for either him straight up or a package with a lesser player, jump ship. Still, he'll be putting up very nice numbers while he's healthy.
Dan Johnson: Perhaps he's pissed off about that AAA demotion last year, or perhaps he's realizing his potential. 4-4 with 2 HRs yesterday gives him a .383 line with 4 HRs and 12 RBIs on the season in limited action. His 8 K/11 BB ratio is excellent, and he's well worth an add in mixed leagues if you're not already too late. He's not a 30 HR guy from what I've read, but 18-20 more from here on out for a guy that's likely your UTIL man would be pretty nice along with a quality batting average.
Tim Wakefield: A 1.79 ERA? Crazy. He's more of the 4.00 ERA guy, but he's pitching extremely well and might be worth a spot start against weaker offenses, especially with Boston's powerhouse offense backing him. A much better pitcher in leagues that don't count Ks, but those leagues aren't fun anyways.
David Weathers: Easily one of the last closers off the board on draft day is providing solid value so far. A sub 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 14 Ks in 15 IP. A very unlikely closer candidate, but he's doing the job well so far and is probably worth shopping as he's never been this good.
Ken Griffey Jr.: He is en fuego right now with 5 HRs and 10 RBIs in the past 10 games, not to mention the .432 AVG in that same span. If you can find someone in your league that think he's jumped in the fountain of youth and will hit 40 HRs this season, you've found a trading partner, and also the league idiot.
Daniel Cabrera: There isn't a much better matchup for him than a young, impatient Tampa Bay lineup, but he found a way to give up 6 runs in 6 IP while only striking out 2, but walking none. What the hell? At least he won. From the looks of it, I'd guess he was around the strike zone a little too much. That being said, he'll probably throw a no hitter with 25 Ks the next time you bench him.
Jose Contreras: Two shutouts on the same day. Contreras is quietly pitching very well, but his K rate has gone south this season as he's only K'd 21 batters in 40 1/3 IP. He's worth keeping an eye on, and possibly spot starting against weaker offenses. He's worth less if he continues to not miss bats, but you can't ignore the sub 3.00 ERA he's posted since getting lit up on opening day.
Jason Bay: 2-4 with a double and a bomb. Hopefully this is the start of another power outburst as he's still underproducing so far this early season. His numbers aren't bad enough to warrant much of a buy-low, but perhaps you can persuade his owner that the surrounding lineup is bad enough to get him at a discount with somewhat sub-par numbers thus far. Wouldn't hurt.
Roy Halladay: Yuck. 5 IP, 11 H, 7 ER. That's two straight bad outings from Halladay, and it's worth nothing that he never really did anything to completely fix his forearm problems. Maybe it's bothering him again, maybe not. His next start is a big one for his owners because 3 straight ugly appearances from a pitcher this good would be bad news.
Kelvim Escobar: Who had him benched yesterday? I did! Double yuck. 9 innings of shutout ball with 9 Ks against the powerful Cleveland offense. Escobar is on a serious roll, and now affords you a sell high opportunity because this man cannot stay off the disabled list for very long. If you can get a top notch starter for him in return for either him straight up or a package with a lesser player, jump ship. Still, he'll be putting up very nice numbers while he's healthy.
Dan Johnson: Perhaps he's pissed off about that AAA demotion last year, or perhaps he's realizing his potential. 4-4 with 2 HRs yesterday gives him a .383 line with 4 HRs and 12 RBIs on the season in limited action. His 8 K/11 BB ratio is excellent, and he's well worth an add in mixed leagues if you're not already too late. He's not a 30 HR guy from what I've read, but 18-20 more from here on out for a guy that's likely your UTIL man would be pretty nice along with a quality batting average.
Tim Wakefield: A 1.79 ERA? Crazy. He's more of the 4.00 ERA guy, but he's pitching extremely well and might be worth a spot start against weaker offenses, especially with Boston's powerhouse offense backing him. A much better pitcher in leagues that don't count Ks, but those leagues aren't fun anyways.
David Weathers: Easily one of the last closers off the board on draft day is providing solid value so far. A sub 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 14 Ks in 15 IP. A very unlikely closer candidate, but he's doing the job well so far and is probably worth shopping as he's never been this good.
Ken Griffey Jr.: He is en fuego right now with 5 HRs and 10 RBIs in the past 10 games, not to mention the .432 AVG in that same span. If you can find someone in your league that think he's jumped in the fountain of youth and will hit 40 HRs this season, you've found a trading partner, and also the league idiot.
Daniel Cabrera: There isn't a much better matchup for him than a young, impatient Tampa Bay lineup, but he found a way to give up 6 runs in 6 IP while only striking out 2, but walking none. What the hell? At least he won. From the looks of it, I'd guess he was around the strike zone a little too much. That being said, he'll probably throw a no hitter with 25 Ks the next time you bench him.
Jose Contreras: Two shutouts on the same day. Contreras is quietly pitching very well, but his K rate has gone south this season as he's only K'd 21 batters in 40 1/3 IP. He's worth keeping an eye on, and possibly spot starting against weaker offenses. He's worth less if he continues to not miss bats, but you can't ignore the sub 3.00 ERA he's posted since getting lit up on opening day.
Thursday, May 10, 2007
B.J. Ryan To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
B.J. Ryan, after a second examination on his elbow, was told to undergo Tommy John surgery today. He'll be out the rest of the season. Like I said before, with Jason Frasor giving up runs in his last 3 appearances, it's likely the Blue Jays will turn to Jeremy Accardo in the next save situation. It's a situation worth monitoring as there's no clearcut answer right now.
Fantasy Impact: Drop B.J. Ryan in all redraft leagues and in most shallow keeper leagues. Only put him on the DL if you play in a league where all reliable closers are kept. Jeremy Accardo is worth a roster spot now, and Frasor is worth holding onto if you have the space. I just wouldn't suggest keeping him active until this situation plays out and he starts showing consistency.
Fantasy Impact: Drop B.J. Ryan in all redraft leagues and in most shallow keeper leagues. Only put him on the DL if you play in a league where all reliable closers are kept. Jeremy Accardo is worth a roster spot now, and Frasor is worth holding onto if you have the space. I just wouldn't suggest keeping him active until this situation plays out and he starts showing consistency.
A "Complete Game Shutout" No Decision, Dice-K Rebounds, and Forgotten Closers Making Waves
James Shields: 9 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 1 BB, 4 K. That statline means a win, right? Wrong. Unfortunately for us Shields owners, he hurled 9 shutout innings to get a ND as Erik Bedard, Dannys Baez, and Chris Ray matched his goose eggs with goose eggs of their own. Shields continues his strong pitching and is well worth using in all appearances but those against elite offenses.
Erik Bedard: Shields' nemesis last night produced 7 shutout innings of 10 K baseball. I hope you bought low on him, because his last two outings show that he's turned it around.
Dice-K Matsuzaka: I read this morning that the Red Sox adjusted his throwing schedule to allow him to throw more in between starts. Japanese baseball teams have their pitchers throw a lot more, and due to Matsuzaka becoming used to that schedule from pitching in the Japanese major leagues since he was 18 years old, Boston felt he was too strong during his starts. Let's hope this shift in routine helps Dice-K get out of his slump, because he looked much better last night. He never had control problems in Japan, but for some reason he's walked 18 in 45 IP over here. I imagine he'll get past this.
Lyle Overbay: 2 HRs last night, and he's hitting almost .300 this month. After a slow start, he's worth adding if you're hamstrung by injuries to your offense, or if you use multiple UTIL or CI spots. His 2006 season was nice, and he has the talent to replicate it.
Rafael Soriano: He's received the last several save chances, so it appears that he's the favorite for saves after all. I think it's moreso the fact more righties are due up in the 9th since Gonzalez has worked the 9th before with tough lefties up. While it's technically a committee, the makeup of most lineups makes Soriano the favorite.
Brad Lidge: I know just his name alone produces gag reflexes and violent outbursts, but hear me out. He's allowed one run in his last 10 appearances, totalling 15 Ks and only 2 BBs. He's clearly turned himself around, and given there's probably no closers on your waiver wire, all Dan Wheeler owners should go pick Lidge up. He's proving to have plenty of value in the 8th inning role with good ratios, a high K rate, and he's got 2 wins as well. He even might get a save chance if Wheeler needs a night off. You never know when Phil Garner might get crazy and put him back in as the closer.
Derrick Turnbow: Brad Lidge's little brother (in fantasy baseball terms). He lost his job to Francisco Cordero, but he too has turned himself around posting a 1.76 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 23 Ks in 15 IP. Given the way Francisco Cordero has been used (6 straight appearances as of last night, which is borderline abuse for a closer), and also given that he's had shoulder issues in the past, all Cordero owners should pick Turnbow up if he's not already owned. Just like Lidge, he's an elite setup man right now and he'll help even if he's not producing saves. You never know when Cordero's shoulder might act up again.
Speaking moreso in terms of 5x5 rotisserie leagues, it's very helpful to own the good setup men, especially if you have the one that sets up your closer(s). The good ones post solid K rates and solid ratios, so while they only give you a few vulture wins and get a couple saves if the closer needs a night off, they keep your ratios down and allow you some versatility with who your starting pitchers are. Plus, you don't need to rush to the waiver wire if your closer needs a DL stint. Something to definitely keep in mind and employ. I used Scot Shields and Jonathan Broxton last year, and they gave me a handful of Ws and SVs, great ratios, and lots of Ks.
Erik Bedard: Shields' nemesis last night produced 7 shutout innings of 10 K baseball. I hope you bought low on him, because his last two outings show that he's turned it around.
Dice-K Matsuzaka: I read this morning that the Red Sox adjusted his throwing schedule to allow him to throw more in between starts. Japanese baseball teams have their pitchers throw a lot more, and due to Matsuzaka becoming used to that schedule from pitching in the Japanese major leagues since he was 18 years old, Boston felt he was too strong during his starts. Let's hope this shift in routine helps Dice-K get out of his slump, because he looked much better last night. He never had control problems in Japan, but for some reason he's walked 18 in 45 IP over here. I imagine he'll get past this.
Lyle Overbay: 2 HRs last night, and he's hitting almost .300 this month. After a slow start, he's worth adding if you're hamstrung by injuries to your offense, or if you use multiple UTIL or CI spots. His 2006 season was nice, and he has the talent to replicate it.
Rafael Soriano: He's received the last several save chances, so it appears that he's the favorite for saves after all. I think it's moreso the fact more righties are due up in the 9th since Gonzalez has worked the 9th before with tough lefties up. While it's technically a committee, the makeup of most lineups makes Soriano the favorite.
Brad Lidge: I know just his name alone produces gag reflexes and violent outbursts, but hear me out. He's allowed one run in his last 10 appearances, totalling 15 Ks and only 2 BBs. He's clearly turned himself around, and given there's probably no closers on your waiver wire, all Dan Wheeler owners should go pick Lidge up. He's proving to have plenty of value in the 8th inning role with good ratios, a high K rate, and he's got 2 wins as well. He even might get a save chance if Wheeler needs a night off. You never know when Phil Garner might get crazy and put him back in as the closer.
Derrick Turnbow: Brad Lidge's little brother (in fantasy baseball terms). He lost his job to Francisco Cordero, but he too has turned himself around posting a 1.76 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 23 Ks in 15 IP. Given the way Francisco Cordero has been used (6 straight appearances as of last night, which is borderline abuse for a closer), and also given that he's had shoulder issues in the past, all Cordero owners should pick Turnbow up if he's not already owned. Just like Lidge, he's an elite setup man right now and he'll help even if he's not producing saves. You never know when Cordero's shoulder might act up again.
Speaking moreso in terms of 5x5 rotisserie leagues, it's very helpful to own the good setup men, especially if you have the one that sets up your closer(s). The good ones post solid K rates and solid ratios, so while they only give you a few vulture wins and get a couple saves if the closer needs a night off, they keep your ratios down and allow you some versatility with who your starting pitchers are. Plus, you don't need to rush to the waiver wire if your closer needs a DL stint. Something to definitely keep in mind and employ. I used Scot Shields and Jonathan Broxton last year, and they gave me a handful of Ws and SVs, great ratios, and lots of Ks.
Wednesday, May 9, 2007
Marlins/Rangers/Blue Jays Closer Situations, Beckett Wins Again, And A Small Rant
Henry Owens/Jorge Julio: Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez said that he envisions Jorge Julio back in the closers role. Now I know the Marlins traded specifically for him before the season started, but this should be nowhere close to happening. Owens has blown one save, and even then those runs scored based on someone else's throwing error. Owens has done nothing to lose the job, posting 2 relief victories and 3 saves since taking over the closer's role. This is something to keep in mind, and perhaps trading Owens along with another player to upgrade your closer position might be the best bet since Gonzalez obviously doesn't know what's best for his team, and that's to have Julio only pitch in 8-0 games.
Eric Gagne/Akinori Otsuka: Gagne has returned from his latest injury, which was some sort of hip ailment. He'll presumably return straight to the closer's role as that's why the Rangers risked millions of dollars on him. At this point it's safe to assume he'll get hurt again before too long, so Otsuka owners should definitely hang onto him. Even if he's only pitching the 8th innings, he'll help your ratios and add some Ks and a vulture win here and there while Gagne pitches towards his next injury.
Jason Frasor/Jeremy Accardo: Toronto manager John Gibbons wasn't commital to Frasor in the closer's role, and given his recent performance that should be no shock. I would pick up Jeremy Accardo as I think he'll get the next save opportunity. Accardo has yet to allow a run, and has posted 13 Ks in 14 2/3 IP. When I first posted about BJ Ryan's injury, I forgot that a few years ago Frasor was given a chance to close, and he didn't perform all that well. I usually keep these instances in mind because either a pitcher has a closer's mentality, or he doesn't, and I generally avoid those who have failed before. LaTroy Hawkins, Jason Frasor, and David Riske are examples of solid relievers that just can't handle closing. Octavio Dotel is actually another one, but he's been at least mildly successful in the role. He was nowhere near as dominant as a closer as he's been as a setup man, however.
Josh Beckett: Yup, I took Felipe Lopez over him. Good times. 7 starts later, he's 7-0 with a sub 3.00 ERA and 40 Ks in 46 2/3 IP. He has the talent to keep this up (I'd imagine an ERA closer to 3.5 than 2.5 when all is said and done), so he's not a sell high candidate unless you believe an injury is around the corner. He battled countless blister issues in Florida, but didn't have a single problem with them last year, so perhaps Boston's team doctors know something that Florida's don't.
Hank Blalock: The .295 average (.344 against LHP!) and .352 OBP are very nice, but where's the power? He's only hit 2 HRs, but he does have 10 doubles. He's bouncing back fairly well so far, but some additional HRs should be nice for someone who definitely has 30 HR power. He's providing reason for optimism, though. His R and RBI production should rise as the Texas offense gets going.
Andy Pettitte: His 2.72 ERA does not match up to his 1.43 WHIP and 27:19 K:BB ratios, but he's having success so far and pitched well last night. He's rather unlucky to only have 2 wins. His ERA will go up, but he should start winning more ballgames as he's pitching fairly well overall.
Horatio Ramirez: 7.62 ERA, including last night's performance of 5 2/3 IP, 11 Hs, 7 ERs, and 0 Ks. To think Seattle traded Rafael Soriano for him is laughable. In fact, I'd say Rafael Soriano on the DL is more effective than Horatio Ramirez in the starting rotation.
David Ortiz: Mini rant time! Boston scores 9 runs, hits 4 HRs, and I look to see Ortiz have an 0-3 night. I hate seeing a team one of your studs is on score a ton of runs, but then you check the boxscore and he's rewarded you with an 0 fer. Ugh.
Dan Wheeler: STOP GIVING UP GOPHERBALLS.
Mike Cameron: Stole a base 2 nights ago, homered last night. I think it's about time to get him back in your lineup, or pick him back up. He's streaky, but he hit 22 HRs and stole 25 bases last year. He's a bit like Torii Hunter, and he's well worth owning. In fact, I just added him in both my leagues.
Chad Gaudin: I spot started him last night against the Royals in a league where I don't really have a 5th starter, and boy did that pay off with 8 IP, 1 ER, and 8 Ks. He's put together a very impressive 2-1/2.40/1.14/34 Ks in 41 1/3 IP. He's not this good, but he's apparently worth using against weaker offenses.
Justin Morneau: He's someone I overlooked in my slow start portion of a post days ago. He's only at .274 right now after his 2/4 with 2 HR game last night, but he's up to 8 HRs total now and I expect that average to keep climbing towards the .300 area.
Eric Gagne/Akinori Otsuka: Gagne has returned from his latest injury, which was some sort of hip ailment. He'll presumably return straight to the closer's role as that's why the Rangers risked millions of dollars on him. At this point it's safe to assume he'll get hurt again before too long, so Otsuka owners should definitely hang onto him. Even if he's only pitching the 8th innings, he'll help your ratios and add some Ks and a vulture win here and there while Gagne pitches towards his next injury.
Jason Frasor/Jeremy Accardo: Toronto manager John Gibbons wasn't commital to Frasor in the closer's role, and given his recent performance that should be no shock. I would pick up Jeremy Accardo as I think he'll get the next save opportunity. Accardo has yet to allow a run, and has posted 13 Ks in 14 2/3 IP. When I first posted about BJ Ryan's injury, I forgot that a few years ago Frasor was given a chance to close, and he didn't perform all that well. I usually keep these instances in mind because either a pitcher has a closer's mentality, or he doesn't, and I generally avoid those who have failed before. LaTroy Hawkins, Jason Frasor, and David Riske are examples of solid relievers that just can't handle closing. Octavio Dotel is actually another one, but he's been at least mildly successful in the role. He was nowhere near as dominant as a closer as he's been as a setup man, however.
Josh Beckett: Yup, I took Felipe Lopez over him. Good times. 7 starts later, he's 7-0 with a sub 3.00 ERA and 40 Ks in 46 2/3 IP. He has the talent to keep this up (I'd imagine an ERA closer to 3.5 than 2.5 when all is said and done), so he's not a sell high candidate unless you believe an injury is around the corner. He battled countless blister issues in Florida, but didn't have a single problem with them last year, so perhaps Boston's team doctors know something that Florida's don't.
Hank Blalock: The .295 average (.344 against LHP!) and .352 OBP are very nice, but where's the power? He's only hit 2 HRs, but he does have 10 doubles. He's bouncing back fairly well so far, but some additional HRs should be nice for someone who definitely has 30 HR power. He's providing reason for optimism, though. His R and RBI production should rise as the Texas offense gets going.
Andy Pettitte: His 2.72 ERA does not match up to his 1.43 WHIP and 27:19 K:BB ratios, but he's having success so far and pitched well last night. He's rather unlucky to only have 2 wins. His ERA will go up, but he should start winning more ballgames as he's pitching fairly well overall.
Horatio Ramirez: 7.62 ERA, including last night's performance of 5 2/3 IP, 11 Hs, 7 ERs, and 0 Ks. To think Seattle traded Rafael Soriano for him is laughable. In fact, I'd say Rafael Soriano on the DL is more effective than Horatio Ramirez in the starting rotation.
David Ortiz: Mini rant time! Boston scores 9 runs, hits 4 HRs, and I look to see Ortiz have an 0-3 night. I hate seeing a team one of your studs is on score a ton of runs, but then you check the boxscore and he's rewarded you with an 0 fer. Ugh.
Dan Wheeler: STOP GIVING UP GOPHERBALLS.
Mike Cameron: Stole a base 2 nights ago, homered last night. I think it's about time to get him back in your lineup, or pick him back up. He's streaky, but he hit 22 HRs and stole 25 bases last year. He's a bit like Torii Hunter, and he's well worth owning. In fact, I just added him in both my leagues.
Chad Gaudin: I spot started him last night against the Royals in a league where I don't really have a 5th starter, and boy did that pay off with 8 IP, 1 ER, and 8 Ks. He's put together a very impressive 2-1/2.40/1.14/34 Ks in 41 1/3 IP. He's not this good, but he's apparently worth using against weaker offenses.
Justin Morneau: He's someone I overlooked in my slow start portion of a post days ago. He's only at .274 right now after his 2/4 with 2 HR game last night, but he's up to 8 HRs total now and I expect that average to keep climbing towards the .300 area.
Tuesday, May 8, 2007
Monday = Slow Day, But Penny Is Worth Much More Than His Name
Brad Penny: Wow, where did this come from? Penny has always had quality stuff, but he's been very inconsistent throughout his career, and he's not a very efficient pitcher. Last night was possibly the best start of his career, allowing 0 runs and 5 hits while K'ing 14 in 7 innings to pick up the win. Given he had 15 Ks in 38 IP prior to this start, he needed something like this to bring his K rate back up. He was due to as he's posted a solid 7 K/9 IP ratio in his career. He was getting extremely lucky by posting a sub 2.00 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and a 15:17 K:BB ratio so far this season, but he was very impressive last night. Now is your chance to sell high on this guy as there's no question his ERA will shoot back above 3 at some point, plus he's always an injury risk.
Fausto Carmona: Another impressive 7 innings from him last night. Given his lack of Ks (11 in 33 IP), it's hard to recommend him in anything but deeper leagues (or leagues that don't reward Ks), but he's worth a look if your rotation is struggling. I've read his poise is much improved from his attempt at closing last season, and he has a great offense supporting him. I'm not sure how long he'll stick around since he was demoted after Cliff Lee came off the DL, but he's pitching like he belongs.
Matt DeSalvo: Flukey start. 7 IP, 3 hits, and 1 R might entice you to put in a waiver claim for him, but I can't imagine him continuing success in the majors in anything other than an "occasional start" role. He didn't strike out a single batter, and he was facing a rather anemic offense. Don't bother.
Adrian Gonazalez: 9 HRs and 29 RBIs from a middle round 1B. Another round of congrats is in order for those of you who took him as a sleeper 1B or a UTIL guy. He's been awesome and has the talent to keep this up all year long. His home ballpark of Petco will hurt him somewhat, meaning more of his power will come on the road, but he's hitting .315 at home and those HRs will just be more doubles.
Dan Wheeler: Another save last night, although not without a 2 run HR. I haven't been paying attention to his ratios that much even though I own him, but he hadn't been scored upon in 8 straight appearances, so nothing to worry about here. His 1.07 WHIP is very nice, and he had a sub 3.00 ERA before last night.
Troy Tulowitzki: After a slow start to his career, he's been on fire recently. If you have SS problems, keep a close eye on him. He's now batting 2nd in the order, and that'd be a great place for his fantasy value with Holliday and Helton behind him. He has 15-20 HR power and can swipe a few bags, so he could be somewhat helpful in all catagories.
Bengie Molina: 2 HRs and 5 RBIs last night. If you're struggling at the C position with Mauer and Piazza on the DL, he's worth a look. The only problem is that with him hitting .333 right now, he's due for a decline, so picking him up with a possible downswing on the horizon might not work out so well. I've personally gone with AJ Pierzynski as my backup beacuse he's due to break out of his slump.
I bumped Molina's note to the end of the list because I wanted to expand upon what I said in there. A mistake I've made before in fantasy baseball is that when I lose a guy earlier in the season, specifically at a position I don't have a backup for, I immediately sort by what the waiver wire fodder have done so far this year and pick up the highest rated player, or my favorite among the top 3. Something you often miss by doing this is an established player who's off to a cold start. He might have been dropped, or was someone people were watching and then forgot about after that cold start. AJ Pierzynski is a solid example of this. He's a borderline starting catcher in fantasy, so he wasn't drafted in all leagues. He's a career .286 hitter, so there's no doubt that his current .227 start is abnormal, and baseball usually finds a way to average things out. I like to own players during that time, obviously, so he's often a better pickup if your starter is going to miss several weeks than someone off to a scorching start.
Fausto Carmona: Another impressive 7 innings from him last night. Given his lack of Ks (11 in 33 IP), it's hard to recommend him in anything but deeper leagues (or leagues that don't reward Ks), but he's worth a look if your rotation is struggling. I've read his poise is much improved from his attempt at closing last season, and he has a great offense supporting him. I'm not sure how long he'll stick around since he was demoted after Cliff Lee came off the DL, but he's pitching like he belongs.
Matt DeSalvo: Flukey start. 7 IP, 3 hits, and 1 R might entice you to put in a waiver claim for him, but I can't imagine him continuing success in the majors in anything other than an "occasional start" role. He didn't strike out a single batter, and he was facing a rather anemic offense. Don't bother.
Adrian Gonazalez: 9 HRs and 29 RBIs from a middle round 1B. Another round of congrats is in order for those of you who took him as a sleeper 1B or a UTIL guy. He's been awesome and has the talent to keep this up all year long. His home ballpark of Petco will hurt him somewhat, meaning more of his power will come on the road, but he's hitting .315 at home and those HRs will just be more doubles.
Dan Wheeler: Another save last night, although not without a 2 run HR. I haven't been paying attention to his ratios that much even though I own him, but he hadn't been scored upon in 8 straight appearances, so nothing to worry about here. His 1.07 WHIP is very nice, and he had a sub 3.00 ERA before last night.
Troy Tulowitzki: After a slow start to his career, he's been on fire recently. If you have SS problems, keep a close eye on him. He's now batting 2nd in the order, and that'd be a great place for his fantasy value with Holliday and Helton behind him. He has 15-20 HR power and can swipe a few bags, so he could be somewhat helpful in all catagories.
Bengie Molina: 2 HRs and 5 RBIs last night. If you're struggling at the C position with Mauer and Piazza on the DL, he's worth a look. The only problem is that with him hitting .333 right now, he's due for a decline, so picking him up with a possible downswing on the horizon might not work out so well. I've personally gone with AJ Pierzynski as my backup beacuse he's due to break out of his slump.
I bumped Molina's note to the end of the list because I wanted to expand upon what I said in there. A mistake I've made before in fantasy baseball is that when I lose a guy earlier in the season, specifically at a position I don't have a backup for, I immediately sort by what the waiver wire fodder have done so far this year and pick up the highest rated player, or my favorite among the top 3. Something you often miss by doing this is an established player who's off to a cold start. He might have been dropped, or was someone people were watching and then forgot about after that cold start. AJ Pierzynski is a solid example of this. He's a borderline starting catcher in fantasy, so he wasn't drafted in all leagues. He's a career .286 hitter, so there's no doubt that his current .227 start is abnormal, and baseball usually finds a way to average things out. I like to own players during that time, obviously, so he's often a better pickup if your starter is going to miss several weeks than someone off to a scorching start.
Monday, May 7, 2007
Roger Clemens Returns To The New York Yankees
Roger Clemens has returned for another season, signing a one year deal with the New York Yankees.
Who didn't see this one coming? I'm sure Clemens would have preferred to stay with the Astros, but he'd be doing nothing by pitching for them again. The Astros are in terrible shape and have no chance at making the playoffs this year, barring some ridiculous miracle. The top two bidders were the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. From what I've read, the Yankees outbidded the Red Sox by $10 million dollars. The Red Sox didn't feel they needed Clemens until late June as their rotation of Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka, and Wakefield has actually been very solid, plus they have Jon Lester on the way back up as well. They wanted to take Clemens back later on in the year, hopefully allowing him to stay healthier and feel fresh come playoff time. The Yankees, on the other hand, had a far greater need with the rash of injuries that have attacked their rotation. When your rotation includes Jeff Karstens and Darrell Rasner, you know times are tough. They needed help now, or face the possibility they won't be in good position to win the AL East come late June. The Yankees are taking on the risk that Clemens will have future leg problems or tire come playoff time in exchange for him helping them right now when their rotation is in shambles. It's actually worth the Yankees doing this, so for once they're not overpaying for something stupid in their rotation (Pavano, Wright, Igawa).
Fantasy Impact: For those who drafted and stashed Roger Clemens, this is what you were waiting for. However, Clemens in the AL East is far less enticing than Clemens in the NL Central as his ERA, WHIP, and K rate will suffer while his chances for wins will increase. That's not a tradeoff us fantasy baseball players want. He isn't going to be posting a sub 3.00 ERA and a sub 1.10 WHIP in the best hitting division in baseball, so I actually suggest selling high unless your fantasy rotation reminds you of the Yankees starting rotation. If you look at this numbers with the Yankees the first time around, I think that's pretty reminiscient of what we'll see now, although it's possible the wins won't be quite so high given he can't work as far into games anymore. See what you can get for him, especially if you can make a deal right now and get full value given he won't be pitching in the majors for roughly another month.
Who didn't see this one coming? I'm sure Clemens would have preferred to stay with the Astros, but he'd be doing nothing by pitching for them again. The Astros are in terrible shape and have no chance at making the playoffs this year, barring some ridiculous miracle. The top two bidders were the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. From what I've read, the Yankees outbidded the Red Sox by $10 million dollars. The Red Sox didn't feel they needed Clemens until late June as their rotation of Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka, and Wakefield has actually been very solid, plus they have Jon Lester on the way back up as well. They wanted to take Clemens back later on in the year, hopefully allowing him to stay healthier and feel fresh come playoff time. The Yankees, on the other hand, had a far greater need with the rash of injuries that have attacked their rotation. When your rotation includes Jeff Karstens and Darrell Rasner, you know times are tough. They needed help now, or face the possibility they won't be in good position to win the AL East come late June. The Yankees are taking on the risk that Clemens will have future leg problems or tire come playoff time in exchange for him helping them right now when their rotation is in shambles. It's actually worth the Yankees doing this, so for once they're not overpaying for something stupid in their rotation (Pavano, Wright, Igawa).
Fantasy Impact: For those who drafted and stashed Roger Clemens, this is what you were waiting for. However, Clemens in the AL East is far less enticing than Clemens in the NL Central as his ERA, WHIP, and K rate will suffer while his chances for wins will increase. That's not a tradeoff us fantasy baseball players want. He isn't going to be posting a sub 3.00 ERA and a sub 1.10 WHIP in the best hitting division in baseball, so I actually suggest selling high unless your fantasy rotation reminds you of the Yankees starting rotation. If you look at this numbers with the Yankees the first time around, I think that's pretty reminiscient of what we'll see now, although it's possible the wins won't be quite so high given he can't work as far into games anymore. See what you can get for him, especially if you can make a deal right now and get full value given he won't be pitching in the majors for roughly another month.
Weekend Action - Papelbon Returns, Peavy Dominates, Josh Hamilton
Jon Papelbon: Well, it seems the concerns about his shoulder can be put to rest, for now. It's always a curious move as to why a rested closer is held out of a save situation, but perhaps it was just fatigue. He returned for 2 saves this weekend throwing the heat we expect from him, so he seems fine for now. Crisis avoided!
Jake Peavy: This guy is just flatout dealing this year. An ERA under 2 and the most Ks in the NL. I would not be surprised at all if he finishes another year with an ERA under 3 and 215+ Ks, assuming his shoulder doesn't act up again. His pitch counts have been managed very well to this point, so continued dominance is likely. Congrats to those of you who drafted him as your ace this year, as he came at a nice discount after the abhoration year he endured last season.
Josh Hamilton: What a story this kid is. 2+ years of missed baseball due to drug abuse, and he returns this year with only a fraction of a season played in A ball late last summer. He's hitting .306 with 8 HRs, 2 SBs, and a handful of Rs and RBIs. Unprecedented production from someone who's had little minor league experience, especially with all the missed time prior to late last year. This just goes to show everyone how insanely talented this kid is. The best approach for him is this: in redraft leagues, wait a bit for him to further establish his numbers, and then sell him high. After missing 2+ years, his body is not conditioned for the 162 game grueling season, and he'll probably start to fade as the season wears on. In keeper leagues, you keep him and stash him on your bench if he starts to falter. You likely drafted him real late after his impressive spring, or you picked him up. If you play in a league like I play in, you'll be keeping this guy for a last round draft choice which is insane value for what he'll be producing once he gets fully acclimated to the major leagues. It's possible he'll keep this up all year, but it's definitely a longshot. If you don't want to deal him in your redraft league and think he'll maintain this, no one would fault you, but I just think his body is a year away from being able to produce consistently for 162 games.
Carlos Zambrano: Bad first inning, great rebound after that on Friday. Your window of buying low on him is closing, although his bad first inning against Washington re-opened it for a minute. He had a stellar outing against St. Louis before, and all-in-all had a very solid outing against Washington as well, save the one bad pitch to Austin Kearns. This is your chance to get a staff ace at a discount. Point to his terrible ratios and try to acquire him. In a league I needed pitching, I traded John Maine and Nick Markakis to get him from an owner that had solid pitching, but a big hole in his OF. That might help provide a benchmark for those of you looking to deal for him. If you own him, stay put. Do not deal him for anything less than he's been worth over the past two seasons.
John Patterson: Well, for those of you still hanging onto hope for him to turn it around, you can officially drop him now. He left his Saturday start early after complaining of bicep soreness, although he officially went on the DL with an elbow ailment. I thought he'd come around after his mediocre spring given he didn't pitch the entire spring, but his velocity was never the same and he eventually admitted to pitching hurt. No reason to hang onto him in any format unless you have a DL spot you don't need.
Bobby Jenks: His velocity remains a bit down, but he's bounced back from a tough spring/early season to bring his ratios back down to reasonable levels, and his K-rate is still strong at a touch over 1 per inning. It looks like he's rounding into form, and while he's not the most reliable closer out there, once Thome returns he should be given more save opportunities. An ERA in the mid-3s with 35 saves and lots of Ks is the most likely scenario.
Daniel Cabrera: God I hate owning this guy. There's no rhyme or reason to his performance as his control is still erratic after a promising spring. He can shut down the best offenses in the league when he's on, or he can walk 5+ guys and give up 6 runs to the weakest offenses when he's off. Considering he's a back-end rotation guy for his owners, I suggest starting him against all but the elite offenses and just take what you can get from him. He's going to rack up the Ks in every outing, so you'll at least be getting something. There's always the chance he'll figure it out and become a dominant starter, but nobody knows when or if that will ever happen.
Fracisco Cordero: Wow, did his owners get a steal on him this season. 12 saves, 0 ERs, and 20 Ks. He's been the most dominant closer in the NL, and just goes to show how erratic the closer position is from a year to year basis. Congrats to those who draft him.
Brandon Webb: 4 more walks. I'm not sure what the problem is, but his 39 K/20 BB ratio is troubling. It's amazing he still has an ERA under 4 given that, but I can't imagine he won't figure it out. As I mentioned before, he had two seasons prior to this where he had figured out his walk problem, so odds are he'll get this straightened out. Hopefully soon.
Mark Teixeira: Buy low opportunity is closed. Over the past 10 days, he's hitting .368 with 4 HRs and 9 RBIs. I'm glad he decided to right this ship before the All-Star break this season.
Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano: Further proof Bobby Cox is playing the matchup game. Yesterday, Soriano entered the 8th to face Garciaparra and Kent, then Gonzalez entered the 9th to face Luis Gonzalez and Ethier. Expect the same to continue until Wickman returns. Both are worth owning, needless to say. Given Cox isn't allowing one guy to step up and shine, it proves Wickman will regain the closer's role when he returns, so his owners need not worry.
Ryan Dempster: Another closer far outperforming his average draft position. He got himself back into shape this offseason, and is pitching very well. I expect him to maintain solid value all season long as the Cubs should provide plenty of save opportunities with the way their starting pitching has been throwing the ball, and the fact their offense should start warming up with the weather.
Zack Greinke: Well, he was a nice story this spring and to start the season, but he's gone way south after his grandparents passed away, with one good outing against Minnesota mixed in. It's a sad story for a pitcher who battled mental problems this past two seasons, and not only do I feel bad for the kid, but I also question his mental ability as a pitcher at this point. He has pretty good stuff, although no dominant out pitch, but he's well worth dropping at this point. Keep an eye on him as his talent hasn't gone anywhere to see if he can get this turned around.
Cole Hamels: He's been good so far, but I think he's still not pitching at the level he could be. He's only 23, so there's plenty of time. His Ks are there, but I think he can still improve his ratios as the season goes on. He has arguably the best changeup outside of Johan Santana.
Brett Myers: Alright, this might be tricky, but I'd suggest attempting to buy low on him right now. If you can find an owner who feels threatened by Tom Gordon's return and thinks Myers is only a short-term closer, make a deal and get him for a discount. He's going to be a great closer, and it appears obvious now that he's going to stay in that role this season. There's no way they moved him into the bullpen to be an 8th inning guy. I strongly feel that Gordon will return to a setup role, one that he also thrives in.
Barry Bonds: He's been an absolute steal so far for his owners. I overlooked his run for the HR record this year, providing him plenty of motivation to stay on top of his game. After he gets the record, I'd try to sell high on him as he'll not only be limited by the weak offense around him, but also by his age and the demands of the long season. If you can get a top flight OF in return for him, jump on it.
Jake Peavy: This guy is just flatout dealing this year. An ERA under 2 and the most Ks in the NL. I would not be surprised at all if he finishes another year with an ERA under 3 and 215+ Ks, assuming his shoulder doesn't act up again. His pitch counts have been managed very well to this point, so continued dominance is likely. Congrats to those of you who drafted him as your ace this year, as he came at a nice discount after the abhoration year he endured last season.
Josh Hamilton: What a story this kid is. 2+ years of missed baseball due to drug abuse, and he returns this year with only a fraction of a season played in A ball late last summer. He's hitting .306 with 8 HRs, 2 SBs, and a handful of Rs and RBIs. Unprecedented production from someone who's had little minor league experience, especially with all the missed time prior to late last year. This just goes to show everyone how insanely talented this kid is. The best approach for him is this: in redraft leagues, wait a bit for him to further establish his numbers, and then sell him high. After missing 2+ years, his body is not conditioned for the 162 game grueling season, and he'll probably start to fade as the season wears on. In keeper leagues, you keep him and stash him on your bench if he starts to falter. You likely drafted him real late after his impressive spring, or you picked him up. If you play in a league like I play in, you'll be keeping this guy for a last round draft choice which is insane value for what he'll be producing once he gets fully acclimated to the major leagues. It's possible he'll keep this up all year, but it's definitely a longshot. If you don't want to deal him in your redraft league and think he'll maintain this, no one would fault you, but I just think his body is a year away from being able to produce consistently for 162 games.
Carlos Zambrano: Bad first inning, great rebound after that on Friday. Your window of buying low on him is closing, although his bad first inning against Washington re-opened it for a minute. He had a stellar outing against St. Louis before, and all-in-all had a very solid outing against Washington as well, save the one bad pitch to Austin Kearns. This is your chance to get a staff ace at a discount. Point to his terrible ratios and try to acquire him. In a league I needed pitching, I traded John Maine and Nick Markakis to get him from an owner that had solid pitching, but a big hole in his OF. That might help provide a benchmark for those of you looking to deal for him. If you own him, stay put. Do not deal him for anything less than he's been worth over the past two seasons.
John Patterson: Well, for those of you still hanging onto hope for him to turn it around, you can officially drop him now. He left his Saturday start early after complaining of bicep soreness, although he officially went on the DL with an elbow ailment. I thought he'd come around after his mediocre spring given he didn't pitch the entire spring, but his velocity was never the same and he eventually admitted to pitching hurt. No reason to hang onto him in any format unless you have a DL spot you don't need.
Bobby Jenks: His velocity remains a bit down, but he's bounced back from a tough spring/early season to bring his ratios back down to reasonable levels, and his K-rate is still strong at a touch over 1 per inning. It looks like he's rounding into form, and while he's not the most reliable closer out there, once Thome returns he should be given more save opportunities. An ERA in the mid-3s with 35 saves and lots of Ks is the most likely scenario.
Daniel Cabrera: God I hate owning this guy. There's no rhyme or reason to his performance as his control is still erratic after a promising spring. He can shut down the best offenses in the league when he's on, or he can walk 5+ guys and give up 6 runs to the weakest offenses when he's off. Considering he's a back-end rotation guy for his owners, I suggest starting him against all but the elite offenses and just take what you can get from him. He's going to rack up the Ks in every outing, so you'll at least be getting something. There's always the chance he'll figure it out and become a dominant starter, but nobody knows when or if that will ever happen.
Fracisco Cordero: Wow, did his owners get a steal on him this season. 12 saves, 0 ERs, and 20 Ks. He's been the most dominant closer in the NL, and just goes to show how erratic the closer position is from a year to year basis. Congrats to those who draft him.
Brandon Webb: 4 more walks. I'm not sure what the problem is, but his 39 K/20 BB ratio is troubling. It's amazing he still has an ERA under 4 given that, but I can't imagine he won't figure it out. As I mentioned before, he had two seasons prior to this where he had figured out his walk problem, so odds are he'll get this straightened out. Hopefully soon.
Mark Teixeira: Buy low opportunity is closed. Over the past 10 days, he's hitting .368 with 4 HRs and 9 RBIs. I'm glad he decided to right this ship before the All-Star break this season.
Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano: Further proof Bobby Cox is playing the matchup game. Yesterday, Soriano entered the 8th to face Garciaparra and Kent, then Gonzalez entered the 9th to face Luis Gonzalez and Ethier. Expect the same to continue until Wickman returns. Both are worth owning, needless to say. Given Cox isn't allowing one guy to step up and shine, it proves Wickman will regain the closer's role when he returns, so his owners need not worry.
Ryan Dempster: Another closer far outperforming his average draft position. He got himself back into shape this offseason, and is pitching very well. I expect him to maintain solid value all season long as the Cubs should provide plenty of save opportunities with the way their starting pitching has been throwing the ball, and the fact their offense should start warming up with the weather.
Zack Greinke: Well, he was a nice story this spring and to start the season, but he's gone way south after his grandparents passed away, with one good outing against Minnesota mixed in. It's a sad story for a pitcher who battled mental problems this past two seasons, and not only do I feel bad for the kid, but I also question his mental ability as a pitcher at this point. He has pretty good stuff, although no dominant out pitch, but he's well worth dropping at this point. Keep an eye on him as his talent hasn't gone anywhere to see if he can get this turned around.
Cole Hamels: He's been good so far, but I think he's still not pitching at the level he could be. He's only 23, so there's plenty of time. His Ks are there, but I think he can still improve his ratios as the season goes on. He has arguably the best changeup outside of Johan Santana.
Brett Myers: Alright, this might be tricky, but I'd suggest attempting to buy low on him right now. If you can find an owner who feels threatened by Tom Gordon's return and thinks Myers is only a short-term closer, make a deal and get him for a discount. He's going to be a great closer, and it appears obvious now that he's going to stay in that role this season. There's no way they moved him into the bullpen to be an 8th inning guy. I strongly feel that Gordon will return to a setup role, one that he also thrives in.
Barry Bonds: He's been an absolute steal so far for his owners. I overlooked his run for the HR record this year, providing him plenty of motivation to stay on top of his game. After he gets the record, I'd try to sell high on him as he'll not only be limited by the weak offense around him, but also by his age and the demands of the long season. If you can get a top flight OF in return for him, jump on it.
Friday, May 4, 2007
J. Shields Breaking Out, Gordon to the DL, and Time To Worry About Papelbon
James Shields: The unlikely breakout candidate that few have heard about. So far Shields has posted 3 Ws, 45 Ks, a 3.74 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. The ERA doesn't match the WHIP, so if Shields can continue to limit his walks and posted a strong BAA, he'll bring that down some. That he's in the AL East will hurt having to face NY, Boston, and Toronto multiple times, but he's added a few MPH to his fastball, and has a devastating changeup, and those added MPH will make his changeup that much better. Expect solid W numbers, a strong K rate, and an ERA under 4 for this kid if he keeps it up.
Tom Gordon/Brett Myers: Tom Gordon heads to the DL with a sore shoulder, so Brett Myers is now Philly's new closer. If someone in your league didn't hang onto him to see what happened with his situation, grab him immediately. Myers had the stuff to be a staff ace, so he most certainly has the stuff to be an ace closer as well. If Myers dominates as a closer, expect Gordon to possibly come back to a setup role. This makes Philly's decision to move him to the bullpen a little easier to swallow, but it was still the wrong move.
Jon Papelbon: Papelbon was held out of a save chance last night despite not working the previous day. It's officially time to worry about the health of his shoulder given this. Mike Timlin is on the DL, so J.C. Romero got the save last night, but he's not a long term answer should Papelbon head to the DL. Keep a close eye on Hideki Okajima as he's already earned a save, and could become the closer should Papelbon miss extended time. Okajima had pitched 3 out of the previous 4 days, so Romero likely only got the call because Okajima needed a day off.
Mike Mussina: Well, I guess I should have started him last night, but it's always best to wait an appearance before activating a hurt pitcher. He threw 5 strong innings last night and looks to be in good health, so he's fine to use from here on out. His return is great news for a Yankees rotation ravaged with injuries.
Mariano Rivera: 2 days and 2 saves, although he did allow 2 hits last night. Now's still a good opportunity to buy low on him, so make sure to point out his ghastly ERA to this point and see if you can land an elite closer at a discount. He seems to be turning the corner.
Moises Alou: He went down again with some sort of ailment, so if you've been using him, get him out of your lineup. Anyone drafting him this season knew he'd be in and out of the lineup, so he's likely a reserve/matchup outfielder anyways. His knee is likely bothering him again, so assume he'll probably miss this weekend's games until something official is announced. He was actually hitting very well until the injury, so he's worth stashing if you have room, especially given the lineup he hits in.
Tom Gordon/Brett Myers: Tom Gordon heads to the DL with a sore shoulder, so Brett Myers is now Philly's new closer. If someone in your league didn't hang onto him to see what happened with his situation, grab him immediately. Myers had the stuff to be a staff ace, so he most certainly has the stuff to be an ace closer as well. If Myers dominates as a closer, expect Gordon to possibly come back to a setup role. This makes Philly's decision to move him to the bullpen a little easier to swallow, but it was still the wrong move.
Jon Papelbon: Papelbon was held out of a save chance last night despite not working the previous day. It's officially time to worry about the health of his shoulder given this. Mike Timlin is on the DL, so J.C. Romero got the save last night, but he's not a long term answer should Papelbon head to the DL. Keep a close eye on Hideki Okajima as he's already earned a save, and could become the closer should Papelbon miss extended time. Okajima had pitched 3 out of the previous 4 days, so Romero likely only got the call because Okajima needed a day off.
Mike Mussina: Well, I guess I should have started him last night, but it's always best to wait an appearance before activating a hurt pitcher. He threw 5 strong innings last night and looks to be in good health, so he's fine to use from here on out. His return is great news for a Yankees rotation ravaged with injuries.
Mariano Rivera: 2 days and 2 saves, although he did allow 2 hits last night. Now's still a good opportunity to buy low on him, so make sure to point out his ghastly ERA to this point and see if you can land an elite closer at a discount. He seems to be turning the corner.
Moises Alou: He went down again with some sort of ailment, so if you've been using him, get him out of your lineup. Anyone drafting him this season knew he'd be in and out of the lineup, so he's likely a reserve/matchup outfielder anyways. His knee is likely bothering him again, so assume he'll probably miss this weekend's games until something official is announced. He was actually hitting very well until the injury, so he's worth stashing if you have room, especially given the lineup he hits in.
Thursday, May 3, 2007
Soriano vs. Gonzalez, Pt 2, Beckett Wins Again, Oliver with 10 Ks?
Rafael Soriano/Mike Gonzalez: Well, round 2 goes to Rafael Soriano as he notched the save last evening. The thing to note here is that Howard and Utley were due up in the 8th inning, so that's where Gonzalez pitched, and then Soriano came in for the 9th and the save. Again, nothing definitive can be taken from this as it was obvious that Gonzalez was better suited to pitch the 8th inning with the tough lefties up. Bobby Cox is a strategic manager, and I believe he's smart enough to understand that matchups are a key part of baseball, and with Wickman out, a committee is the most likely scenario.
Josh Beckett: 6-0 now for this man who's off to a scorching start. Great ratios, great K-rate, and potential finally being fulfilled here. He was a great undervalued pitcher to target in fantasy leagues this year, and he's proving why. Arm/blister problems are always a possibility, but he's not really that much greater of a risk than many star hurlers. He definitely won't keep his ERA under 3, but an ERA under 4 pitching in the AL East with a strong K rate and a high win total will make him very valuable all season long.
Oliver Perez: He unraveled a bit in the 6th inning, but he's bouncing back rather nicely after several lost years. I read he has his velocity back, and it seems like he has his control in check for the most part. He'll never be a pitcher that consistently pitches deep into games, but he has great K potential and has a potent offense supporting him. The occasional blowup will frustrated you such as the 7 walk outing earlier this season, but he's a good matchup pitcher who should be owned in all leagues.
Jhonny Peralta: This man is on fire at the plate, hitting close to .400 with 4 HRs and 12 RBIs over the past week. His batting average is still a bit sub-par thanks to a slow start, but perhaps he can maintain the type of performance we saw from him in 2005. If your SS is off to a slow start and he's still available, grab him.
Alfonso Soriano: 2 days, 2 HRs. Perhaps he's about to go on a major tear, although he's already hitting .300. Kudos to those who bought low or rode out his early cold streak...Alfonso is back.
Josh Beckett: 6-0 now for this man who's off to a scorching start. Great ratios, great K-rate, and potential finally being fulfilled here. He was a great undervalued pitcher to target in fantasy leagues this year, and he's proving why. Arm/blister problems are always a possibility, but he's not really that much greater of a risk than many star hurlers. He definitely won't keep his ERA under 3, but an ERA under 4 pitching in the AL East with a strong K rate and a high win total will make him very valuable all season long.
Oliver Perez: He unraveled a bit in the 6th inning, but he's bouncing back rather nicely after several lost years. I read he has his velocity back, and it seems like he has his control in check for the most part. He'll never be a pitcher that consistently pitches deep into games, but he has great K potential and has a potent offense supporting him. The occasional blowup will frustrated you such as the 7 walk outing earlier this season, but he's a good matchup pitcher who should be owned in all leagues.
Jhonny Peralta: This man is on fire at the plate, hitting close to .400 with 4 HRs and 12 RBIs over the past week. His batting average is still a bit sub-par thanks to a slow start, but perhaps he can maintain the type of performance we saw from him in 2005. If your SS is off to a slow start and he's still available, grab him.
Alfonso Soriano: 2 days, 2 HRs. Perhaps he's about to go on a major tear, although he's already hitting .300. Kudos to those who bought low or rode out his early cold streak...Alfonso is back.
Wednesday, May 2, 2007
Hughes Hurt, Greinke and Burnett Suck, Sabathia Doesn't, Sheets Ks?
Some random player notes:
Phillip Hughes: I think Steinbrenner's deal with the devil has run out. Baseball's top pitching prospect had a no hitter through 6 1/3 only to hear his hamstrinng pop. He'll be out 4-6 weeks, and the Yankees lose yet another starter. Mussina is due back this week, so he'll slide into Hughes' now vacated rotation spot. I read a good analysis elsewhere, and it was stated that it'll be better for his arm in the long run that he's going to miss this much time. Torre might have been motivated to overwork him given the rest of the injuries and struggles in the Yankees rotation, and this will save 4-6 weeks of wear on his arm. Teams always have to be careful when they call up early 20's pitching prospects that aren't used to throwing more than maybe 140 innings or so.
A.J. Burnett: Boy is this guy frustrating or what? His stuff is incredible, but his location and consistency are not. One start removed from shutting out the Yankees for 7 innings, he gets blown up for 7 runs in 5 innings against Cleveland. He did K 7 batters, so he at least contributed something. I think he's best if he is not used against strong offense, especially until he figures out his control issues. He actually might be a decent buy-low candidate because I don't think his control problems will last all season long.
C.C Sabathia: I'm sure owners were furious with 3 HRs in the first inning, but at least they were all solo shots, and he was dominant after that. He should be one of the AL's top 5 pitchers this year, so if there's an owner worried a bit about him for some reason, pounce.
Zack Greinke: Well, the honeymoon period was nice while it lasted. He's just too hittable despite quality stuff, and he doesn't have a go-to strikeout/out pitch. He'll probably be inconsistent for most of the season, and given the weak offense that supports him, he's not worth owning in mixed leagues right now. I thought he'd be a good spot starter in mixed leagues, but getting blown up by Anaheim ruined that theory. It was really only one bad inning, but that seems to be the case more often than not in his starts.
Ben Sheets: Sheets was solid last night, beating a Cardinals team he has historically had problems with. He looks recovered from his groin injury, which is the most important thing. A bothersome trend that's developing is his lack of Ks. Over the last 3 years, he's averaging over a K an inning. This season, however, he's only struck out 16 batters in 36 innings. That's a huge drop, and some cause for concern for his fantasy owners. His strong fantasy value, when healthy, is tied to his bigtime K rate. I haven't read anything that indicates his velocity is down, so it doesn't seem like it's an arm problem, so I'm not sure what the issue is. This bears watching to see if it's just a fluke or the start of a trend. I'm not sure whether to recommend a buy-low, or to stay away.
Matt Holliday: En fuego. Now hitting .395, he looks entrenched as an offensive force for the next several years. Marked as a breakout candidate last season, he came through and it looks like this guy is for real. Hopefully Colorado will keep him in the 3rd spot so that he has Helton's protection.
Russ Ortiz / Tim Lincecum: Russ Ortiz got bombed again, and now sports a 6.44 ERA. Fantasy leagues have been waiting for SF to give Lincecum the call, and I have to imagine it'll be soon now. The Giants can't possibly think that Ortiz will outproduce their top pitching prospect over the rest of the season, even if they decide to limit Lincecum to 5-6 innings per start. If he's unowned, Lincecum is worth stashing now. I don't think he'll provide the same impact to teams that Liriano did last season, but he should be plenty valuable.
Takashi Saito: Many thought he'd take the natural 5 steps back that many Japanese pitchers do after batters have seen them for a year, but he continues to sparkle with a beautiful ERA and K rate. He picked up his first win last night after keeping the score tied at 1 in the 9th. Saito, unlike Takatsu and some others before him, has legit stuff and doesn't rely on deception and offspeed pitches to succeed. He should remain a quality closer the rest of the year barring injury. Sorry, Broxton owners...
Phillip Hughes: I think Steinbrenner's deal with the devil has run out. Baseball's top pitching prospect had a no hitter through 6 1/3 only to hear his hamstrinng pop. He'll be out 4-6 weeks, and the Yankees lose yet another starter. Mussina is due back this week, so he'll slide into Hughes' now vacated rotation spot. I read a good analysis elsewhere, and it was stated that it'll be better for his arm in the long run that he's going to miss this much time. Torre might have been motivated to overwork him given the rest of the injuries and struggles in the Yankees rotation, and this will save 4-6 weeks of wear on his arm. Teams always have to be careful when they call up early 20's pitching prospects that aren't used to throwing more than maybe 140 innings or so.
A.J. Burnett: Boy is this guy frustrating or what? His stuff is incredible, but his location and consistency are not. One start removed from shutting out the Yankees for 7 innings, he gets blown up for 7 runs in 5 innings against Cleveland. He did K 7 batters, so he at least contributed something. I think he's best if he is not used against strong offense, especially until he figures out his control issues. He actually might be a decent buy-low candidate because I don't think his control problems will last all season long.
C.C Sabathia: I'm sure owners were furious with 3 HRs in the first inning, but at least they were all solo shots, and he was dominant after that. He should be one of the AL's top 5 pitchers this year, so if there's an owner worried a bit about him for some reason, pounce.
Zack Greinke: Well, the honeymoon period was nice while it lasted. He's just too hittable despite quality stuff, and he doesn't have a go-to strikeout/out pitch. He'll probably be inconsistent for most of the season, and given the weak offense that supports him, he's not worth owning in mixed leagues right now. I thought he'd be a good spot starter in mixed leagues, but getting blown up by Anaheim ruined that theory. It was really only one bad inning, but that seems to be the case more often than not in his starts.
Ben Sheets: Sheets was solid last night, beating a Cardinals team he has historically had problems with. He looks recovered from his groin injury, which is the most important thing. A bothersome trend that's developing is his lack of Ks. Over the last 3 years, he's averaging over a K an inning. This season, however, he's only struck out 16 batters in 36 innings. That's a huge drop, and some cause for concern for his fantasy owners. His strong fantasy value, when healthy, is tied to his bigtime K rate. I haven't read anything that indicates his velocity is down, so it doesn't seem like it's an arm problem, so I'm not sure what the issue is. This bears watching to see if it's just a fluke or the start of a trend. I'm not sure whether to recommend a buy-low, or to stay away.
Matt Holliday: En fuego. Now hitting .395, he looks entrenched as an offensive force for the next several years. Marked as a breakout candidate last season, he came through and it looks like this guy is for real. Hopefully Colorado will keep him in the 3rd spot so that he has Helton's protection.
Russ Ortiz / Tim Lincecum: Russ Ortiz got bombed again, and now sports a 6.44 ERA. Fantasy leagues have been waiting for SF to give Lincecum the call, and I have to imagine it'll be soon now. The Giants can't possibly think that Ortiz will outproduce their top pitching prospect over the rest of the season, even if they decide to limit Lincecum to 5-6 innings per start. If he's unowned, Lincecum is worth stashing now. I don't think he'll provide the same impact to teams that Liriano did last season, but he should be plenty valuable.
Takashi Saito: Many thought he'd take the natural 5 steps back that many Japanese pitchers do after batters have seen them for a year, but he continues to sparkle with a beautiful ERA and K rate. He picked up his first win last night after keeping the score tied at 1 in the 9th. Saito, unlike Takatsu and some others before him, has legit stuff and doesn't rely on deception and offspeed pitches to succeed. He should remain a quality closer the rest of the year barring injury. Sorry, Broxton owners...
Tuesday, May 1, 2007
Bob Wickman To The DL
The Atlanta Braves have placed closer Bob Wickman on the DL.
This might be closer by committee until he returns. Mike Gonzalez was the closer in Pittsburgh last year, and is a lefty. Rafael Soriano used to be the closer of the future in Seattle until J.J. Putz exploded on the scene, and then was dealt for peanuts this offseason. He's a righty. Last night, Gonzalez got the nod in the 9th inning in a tie game, but both Utley and Howard were due up and are left handed hitters. I have a feeling Gonzalez might get the edge here, but he had elbow problems that shut him down last year, and he's also posted a disgusting WHIP so far this season. Soriano had 2 disasterous outings within 3 appearances earlier this season, but has been dominant since then. I think it'll depend on what hitters are due up in the 9th as to which guy will get to close. For the next save opportunity, keep an eye on who gets the call and which batters he's due to face. If both are available, perhaps you can make a choice by doing that. I'd rather own Soriano because he doesn't walk someone everytime he takes the mound, but if Gonzalez ends up being the favorite for saves, he's the one to own.
This might be closer by committee until he returns. Mike Gonzalez was the closer in Pittsburgh last year, and is a lefty. Rafael Soriano used to be the closer of the future in Seattle until J.J. Putz exploded on the scene, and then was dealt for peanuts this offseason. He's a righty. Last night, Gonzalez got the nod in the 9th inning in a tie game, but both Utley and Howard were due up and are left handed hitters. I have a feeling Gonzalez might get the edge here, but he had elbow problems that shut him down last year, and he's also posted a disgusting WHIP so far this season. Soriano had 2 disasterous outings within 3 appearances earlier this season, but has been dominant since then. I think it'll depend on what hitters are due up in the 9th as to which guy will get to close. For the next save opportunity, keep an eye on who gets the call and which batters he's due to face. If both are available, perhaps you can make a choice by doing that. I'd rather own Soriano because he doesn't walk someone everytime he takes the mound, but if Gonzalez ends up being the favorite for saves, he's the one to own.
Vacation
Well, I just got back from vacation and plan to post on almost a daily basis now. I've gone a while without posting anything, so most of the news I've caught up on when I returned is outdated. At any rate, here's a few random notes:
Henry Owens: Owens has secured the job as the Marlins closer for the forseeable future. He's sporting a solid ERA, WHIP, and a decent K rate, but he HAS to cut down on his walks to maintain success. He's gone 3/4 appearances without walking anyone, so hopefully that's a sign of continued success.
Howie Kendrick: Ouch, I lost my starting 2B on both teams due to a broken finger suffered on a HBP. He'll probably be out for about another month. It's too late to make suggestions to most people, but luckily I had B.J. Upton stashed on one team, and I beat my league on the other team to Kelly Johnson to replace him.
Jim Thome: Strained his rib cage, tried to come back too early, and re-injured it. This time the White Sox are putting him on the DL to give him proper time to heal. Unfortunately us owners will be without his services for the week. I'd look to guys like Aaron Rowand, Chris B. Young (if someone dropped him after his slow start), and Conor Jackson to replace Thome for a few weeks. Wily Mo Pena is also an option while Coco Crisp is hurting.
Felix Hernandez: His owners can breathe a temporary sigh of relief as the King will return on Friday. I would NOT use him in this start for 3 combined reasons: he's coming back from an arm injury, he'll be on a pitch count, and he'll be facing the Yankees. There's absolutely no upside to using him in his first start back unless you like to play russian roulette for fun.
Mike Mussina: He's scheduled to return this week as well, on Thursday in Texas. Considering he hasn't pitched in 20+ days, I wouldn't use him either, even if Texas as a whole is slumping on offense.
Mark Teixeira: Man, he's been frustrating to own the past two years, hasn't he? He's off to another slow start, although had 2 games in a row with a HR followed by 2 hitless games.
Albert Pujols, Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Howard, David Wright, Carlos Zambrano, Erik Bedard, etc: It's April, people. If these guys had 2 normal months followed by their first month of production buried in the middle of the season, trust me, you wouldn't notice. Patience. Slow starts are always more noticeable in the stat lines than a random month of slumping in the middle of the season. Soriano specifically is of note since he twinged his hammy 2 weeks ago or so, but he's already stolen a base since then and has several doubles, so he looks fine. Contact owners of these players and see what type of patience they have with them.
John Maine: Shop him and sell high. He won't maintain this type of performance all season long, obviously, and if you have a Mets fan or someone that believes he's now an elite pitcher and will value him as such in a trade, then make a deal. Now don't get me wrong, he looks like a quality starter and will be a helpful fantasy asset, but his numbers will regress and it's better if you don't have him on your team when that happens. He should still post a mid 3 ERA, great WHIP, and both solid K numbers and wins. If you can get an established stud in a deal back for him, do it.
B.J. Upton: Wow, what a start for this super prospect. If you're in a redraft league, sell high. His all-around game will provide nice fantasy value, but he's hitting way over his head right now with a .365 average. He's posted 27 Ks in 22 games, and that's atrocious. I expect his contact rate to go up, but it won't be til after a slump brings his average down. In a keeper league, you gotta stay pat and hope he posts power numbers and steals while his average comes back down.
Chris B. Young: He had a solid contact rate while his AVG was so low, and the results are starting to show up for this kid. It looks like he's turned the corner and I believe he's a good buy-low candidate, although the 2 HR game last night won't help your cause. He's great as a 3rd OF.
Jeff Francouer: 9 walks already? Crazy! The posterboy of impatience is turning a corner in his young career regarding plate patience, and he's currently hitting .300 as a result. Now I don't know if he'll keep the average up that high, but a progression to at least the .280 range is definitely possible if he keeps this up. Kudos to those of you who drafted him as it appears he won't be a downer on your batting average.
Brandon Webb: Speaking of walks, his are getting annoying. 19 already this season, which would pro-rate to over 100 on the season. After 2 seasons of 59 and 50 walks and great results thanks to this, a month of abhoration is the more likely scenario here. Let's hope that's the case or his ERA plunge won't continue. Aside from that, however, he's pitched very well over his last 3 outings to overcome a rocky start.
Henry Owens: Owens has secured the job as the Marlins closer for the forseeable future. He's sporting a solid ERA, WHIP, and a decent K rate, but he HAS to cut down on his walks to maintain success. He's gone 3/4 appearances without walking anyone, so hopefully that's a sign of continued success.
Howie Kendrick: Ouch, I lost my starting 2B on both teams due to a broken finger suffered on a HBP. He'll probably be out for about another month. It's too late to make suggestions to most people, but luckily I had B.J. Upton stashed on one team, and I beat my league on the other team to Kelly Johnson to replace him.
Jim Thome: Strained his rib cage, tried to come back too early, and re-injured it. This time the White Sox are putting him on the DL to give him proper time to heal. Unfortunately us owners will be without his services for the week. I'd look to guys like Aaron Rowand, Chris B. Young (if someone dropped him after his slow start), and Conor Jackson to replace Thome for a few weeks. Wily Mo Pena is also an option while Coco Crisp is hurting.
Felix Hernandez: His owners can breathe a temporary sigh of relief as the King will return on Friday. I would NOT use him in this start for 3 combined reasons: he's coming back from an arm injury, he'll be on a pitch count, and he'll be facing the Yankees. There's absolutely no upside to using him in his first start back unless you like to play russian roulette for fun.
Mike Mussina: He's scheduled to return this week as well, on Thursday in Texas. Considering he hasn't pitched in 20+ days, I wouldn't use him either, even if Texas as a whole is slumping on offense.
Mark Teixeira: Man, he's been frustrating to own the past two years, hasn't he? He's off to another slow start, although had 2 games in a row with a HR followed by 2 hitless games.
Albert Pujols, Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Howard, David Wright, Carlos Zambrano, Erik Bedard, etc: It's April, people. If these guys had 2 normal months followed by their first month of production buried in the middle of the season, trust me, you wouldn't notice. Patience. Slow starts are always more noticeable in the stat lines than a random month of slumping in the middle of the season. Soriano specifically is of note since he twinged his hammy 2 weeks ago or so, but he's already stolen a base since then and has several doubles, so he looks fine. Contact owners of these players and see what type of patience they have with them.
John Maine: Shop him and sell high. He won't maintain this type of performance all season long, obviously, and if you have a Mets fan or someone that believes he's now an elite pitcher and will value him as such in a trade, then make a deal. Now don't get me wrong, he looks like a quality starter and will be a helpful fantasy asset, but his numbers will regress and it's better if you don't have him on your team when that happens. He should still post a mid 3 ERA, great WHIP, and both solid K numbers and wins. If you can get an established stud in a deal back for him, do it.
B.J. Upton: Wow, what a start for this super prospect. If you're in a redraft league, sell high. His all-around game will provide nice fantasy value, but he's hitting way over his head right now with a .365 average. He's posted 27 Ks in 22 games, and that's atrocious. I expect his contact rate to go up, but it won't be til after a slump brings his average down. In a keeper league, you gotta stay pat and hope he posts power numbers and steals while his average comes back down.
Chris B. Young: He had a solid contact rate while his AVG was so low, and the results are starting to show up for this kid. It looks like he's turned the corner and I believe he's a good buy-low candidate, although the 2 HR game last night won't help your cause. He's great as a 3rd OF.
Jeff Francouer: 9 walks already? Crazy! The posterboy of impatience is turning a corner in his young career regarding plate patience, and he's currently hitting .300 as a result. Now I don't know if he'll keep the average up that high, but a progression to at least the .280 range is definitely possible if he keeps this up. Kudos to those of you who drafted him as it appears he won't be a downer on your batting average.
Brandon Webb: Speaking of walks, his are getting annoying. 19 already this season, which would pro-rate to over 100 on the season. After 2 seasons of 59 and 50 walks and great results thanks to this, a month of abhoration is the more likely scenario here. Let's hope that's the case or his ERA plunge won't continue. Aside from that, however, he's pitched very well over his last 3 outings to overcome a rocky start.
Monday, April 16, 2007
B.J. Ryan Complains Of Sore Elbow
Toronto closer B.J. Ryan compliained of a sore elbow after two disasterous blown saves in his last four appearances.
Sore Elbow + visit to Dr. James Andrews = Bad. This is a deathblow for B.J. Ryan owners who drafted him to be the ace of their bullpen. He's been placed on the 15 day DL for now, and will be examined by Dr. Andrews on Monday. It will be determined later today whether he has ligament damage (which would require Tommy John surgery), or if it's something less severe.
Fantasy Impact: Grab Jason Frasor immediately. He'll be the Blue Jays closer indefinitely while Ryan is out, possibly for the rest of the season if Ryan needs surgery. He's been very effective as a short reliever the past two years outside of a dreadful start last season. He'll post a very strong K/9 and should maintain solid ratios as a closer. Shaun Marcum picked up the save yesterday, but that's because Frasor had thrown 30 pitches the night before and needed the day of rest.
Sore Elbow + visit to Dr. James Andrews = Bad. This is a deathblow for B.J. Ryan owners who drafted him to be the ace of their bullpen. He's been placed on the 15 day DL for now, and will be examined by Dr. Andrews on Monday. It will be determined later today whether he has ligament damage (which would require Tommy John surgery), or if it's something less severe.
Fantasy Impact: Grab Jason Frasor immediately. He'll be the Blue Jays closer indefinitely while Ryan is out, possibly for the rest of the season if Ryan needs surgery. He's been very effective as a short reliever the past two years outside of a dreadful start last season. He'll post a very strong K/9 and should maintain solid ratios as a closer. Shaun Marcum picked up the save yesterday, but that's because Frasor had thrown 30 pitches the night before and needed the day of rest.
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Henry Owens Records Save In Marlins Victory
Well, forget my Taylor Tankersley post from yesterday...it appears that Henry Owens is #2 for saves in the Florida bullpen. Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez said Julio is still his closer, but he'd get Monday off. Hardly a promising sign for Julio's job security, despite what Gonzalez has said. Considering Julio's implosion so far, it's very possible that Owens will have the job sooner than later. He's worth stashing at this point if you have an open roster spot or someone you're waiting to dump. He has a good fastball and an average slider from what I've read, so while it doesn't appear he'll be a dominant closer if given the chance, he did have an impressive spring and has pitched 5 scoreless innings so far in the early going.
In related news, Tankersley has had 2 successful outings in a row in the minors and appears ready to return. This situation will probably become somewhat muddled as it appears Tankersley has the best pure stuff on the relief staff, and he was the favorite prior to injuring himself this spring. The fun of chasing closers is fully underway!
In related news, Tankersley has had 2 successful outings in a row in the minors and appears ready to return. This situation will probably become somewhat muddled as it appears Tankersley has the best pure stuff on the relief staff, and he was the favorite prior to injuring himself this spring. The fun of chasing closers is fully underway!
Monday, April 9, 2007
Carpenter Hurting, Lidge Loses Job
Chris Carpenter: Chris Carpenter went in for an MRI today, and while the doctors didn't see any ligament damage, he was diagnosed with an arthritic elbow and will miss some time. His estimated return is unknown at this time, and this appears to be cause for concern. Carpenter experienced swelling after his initial start, then completely a bullpen session only to have the swelling return. He'll try resting it for a while before throwing again, and this is undoubtedly a disappointment as he was likely the 2nd pitcher picked in most drafts. Carpenter has remained healthy and dominant since coming over from the AL to the Cardinals after battling various ailments and inconsistency in Toronto. However, the long season pitching through the World Series last year could be to blame.
Fantasy Impact: It's always a huge blow when you lose your staff ace, but there's some options out there. I'd suggest Daniel Cabrera, but I'd be shocked if he was unowned after his first two starts. He's always had the pure stuff, but now he seems to have found his control and a better knowledge of how to pitch. I expect some control inconsistency still and thus some ERA/WHIP concerns, but he has the talent to keep this up. He'll post a strong K rate, and the Baltimore offense is good enough to provide him with solid support. You could also look to Zack Greinke. Greinke was a highly touted pitching prospect with a solid 2004 debut before tanking in 2005 and battling unknown personal issues last season. He had a terrific opening start against the powerful Red Sox lineup, and he has the track record and home ballpark to post solid ratios and a solid K rate this year. Wins will be a problem backed by the mediocre KC offense, but wins are always more luck based than anything else and he'll contribute enough elsewhere to be a solid pickup. It'd be best to spot start him before he re-proves himself in rotisserie leagues.
Brad Lidge: Brad Lidge has been officially pulled from the closer's role and will be used earlier in games. After his disasterous 2006 compaign, brutal spring, and terrible 2007 start, this can't be of any surprise. He hasn't lost his stuff and he's not hurt, so it's obviously a mental breakdown. Odds are he'll need a fresh start with another team before possibly re-emerging, but he can't be completely ruled out if he can regain his control.
Fantasy Impact: Dan Wheeler owners rejoice! You now have an extra closer, and given his numbers the past two years (2.36 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 137 Ks in 144 2/3 IP), he'll likely be effective in the closer's role and could maintain the job all year long. He started off with a perfect inning today, and getting that first save down is a great start for his mental approach.
Other Notes:
- Jorge Julio has been brutal in the closer's role for the Marlins so far. It's time to start paying attention to who's favored in the 8th inning to set him up. The Marlins had so many young candidates vying for the closer's role prior to the Julio acquisition that it's hard to speculate on one, but they'd probably favor a healthy return by Taylor Tankersley and want him to become their closer of the future. He'd be the one to stash on your roster at this point if you feel the need to own one of them.
- A-Rod is making those who passed on him early in the first round regret it so far. A league leading 4 HRs and 11 RBIs is pacing MLB in the early going, and it's great to see as a fantasy owner after an offseason filled with trade rumors and turmoil. The game winning grand slam was the most encouraging of all as it'll hopefully snap A-Rod out of his recent clutch failures. He can opt out of his contract at year's end, so he'll be plenty motivated to keep this up all year long.
- Miguel Cabrera is off to a scorching start, but I have to believe the lack of lineup protection behind him will eventually catch up to him. By no means would I trade him unless I were getting a bonafide stud back in the deal, but he'd better hope Willingham and Jacobs continue maturing as hitters so pitchers don't stop pitching to Cabrera all together.
- David Ortiz smacked 2 HRs last night, helping erase memories of his terrible spring/start. He'll be fine for those worried about him.
- I hate Alfonso Soriano so far. 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, but he finally stole his first base today. My one team with him, Teixeira, Blalock, Rios, and Mauer is quite offensive so far, in the wrong sense of the word.
Fantasy Impact: It's always a huge blow when you lose your staff ace, but there's some options out there. I'd suggest Daniel Cabrera, but I'd be shocked if he was unowned after his first two starts. He's always had the pure stuff, but now he seems to have found his control and a better knowledge of how to pitch. I expect some control inconsistency still and thus some ERA/WHIP concerns, but he has the talent to keep this up. He'll post a strong K rate, and the Baltimore offense is good enough to provide him with solid support. You could also look to Zack Greinke. Greinke was a highly touted pitching prospect with a solid 2004 debut before tanking in 2005 and battling unknown personal issues last season. He had a terrific opening start against the powerful Red Sox lineup, and he has the track record and home ballpark to post solid ratios and a solid K rate this year. Wins will be a problem backed by the mediocre KC offense, but wins are always more luck based than anything else and he'll contribute enough elsewhere to be a solid pickup. It'd be best to spot start him before he re-proves himself in rotisserie leagues.
Brad Lidge: Brad Lidge has been officially pulled from the closer's role and will be used earlier in games. After his disasterous 2006 compaign, brutal spring, and terrible 2007 start, this can't be of any surprise. He hasn't lost his stuff and he's not hurt, so it's obviously a mental breakdown. Odds are he'll need a fresh start with another team before possibly re-emerging, but he can't be completely ruled out if he can regain his control.
Fantasy Impact: Dan Wheeler owners rejoice! You now have an extra closer, and given his numbers the past two years (2.36 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 137 Ks in 144 2/3 IP), he'll likely be effective in the closer's role and could maintain the job all year long. He started off with a perfect inning today, and getting that first save down is a great start for his mental approach.
Other Notes:
- Jorge Julio has been brutal in the closer's role for the Marlins so far. It's time to start paying attention to who's favored in the 8th inning to set him up. The Marlins had so many young candidates vying for the closer's role prior to the Julio acquisition that it's hard to speculate on one, but they'd probably favor a healthy return by Taylor Tankersley and want him to become their closer of the future. He'd be the one to stash on your roster at this point if you feel the need to own one of them.
- A-Rod is making those who passed on him early in the first round regret it so far. A league leading 4 HRs and 11 RBIs is pacing MLB in the early going, and it's great to see as a fantasy owner after an offseason filled with trade rumors and turmoil. The game winning grand slam was the most encouraging of all as it'll hopefully snap A-Rod out of his recent clutch failures. He can opt out of his contract at year's end, so he'll be plenty motivated to keep this up all year long.
- Miguel Cabrera is off to a scorching start, but I have to believe the lack of lineup protection behind him will eventually catch up to him. By no means would I trade him unless I were getting a bonafide stud back in the deal, but he'd better hope Willingham and Jacobs continue maturing as hitters so pitchers don't stop pitching to Cabrera all together.
- David Ortiz smacked 2 HRs last night, helping erase memories of his terrible spring/start. He'll be fine for those worried about him.
- I hate Alfonso Soriano so far. 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, but he finally stole his first base today. My one team with him, Teixeira, Blalock, Rios, and Mauer is quite offensive so far, in the wrong sense of the word.
Tuesday, April 3, 2007
Opening Day 2007
I worked from home yesterday to enjoy a day full of baseball on ESPN. My beloved White Sox got spanked, the Cubs looked bad as well, and most aces turned into 9s, or at least posted ERAs in that range. John Patterson, Scott Kazmir, Carlos Zambrano, Curt Schilling, Brandon Webb, Johan Santana, and Eric Bedard all posted less-than-stellar performances. Jose Contreras was beyond atrocious. This isn't all that common as many pitchers are still working on their pitch location, arm angles, and rhythm at this point in the season. Some will also battle the "dead arm" phase as they get themselves back into the pitching routine. It's only one day, and none of these performances are worth worrying about yet. If any of these pitchers post 1 or 2 more performances in a row like they did yesterday, then you might want to start paying attention. My ERA/WHIP in the league that I have Webb, Schilling, and Patterson is looking pretty sweet right now.
On the other hand, Ben Sheets and Felix Hernandez were brilliant yesterday. Sheets offered up a 2 hitter and retired 22 straight batters at one point yesterday. If he stays healthy, he's one of two pitchers (Rich Harden as well) that can stay with Johan Santana in the stats columns. I picked Brandon Webb over him, and I'm curious to see how that pans out. I know Webb was the no brainer pick over Sheets, but Sheets' injury history is a bit misleading. After breaking through in 2004, he spent time on the DL in 2005 with an ear infection, then had shoulder surgery at the end of the year. In 2006 he wasn't fully recovered, and spent more DL time recovering from that surgery. He closed very strong in 2006, enjoyed a healthy offseason, and was a good value this year according to his ADP. He's really only had one major injury, so calling him injury-prone is stretching it. Unfortunately he was taken too high in both of my drafts (went right after my selection of Peavy in my first, and he went right after my selection of Webb in my second).
Felix Hernandez was another great value this season, and he started off strong, with 8 shutout innings and 12 Ks. He threw 111 pitches yesterday, and that's worth monitoring. The Mariners last season rarely allowed him to pass the 100 pitch count. Rumor has it that they will take the gloves off a bit more this season, but given he's still only 20 years old, they have to be careful. If he continues to throw 110+ pitches in the first half, he'll become a strong sell high candidate. Obviously this is only one game and he was dealing yesterday, but it's worth mentioning for someone this young.
No big hitting outputs yesterday, although it was nice to see A-Rod hit a late game HR from a fantasy perspective. If he can get past his struggles in close games, he'll post a stat line much closer to 2005 than 2006. Given he can opt out of his contract at season's end, he's playing for money this year, and that's always a good thing.
B.J. Upton went 2-4 and stole a base while starting at 2B. If he can find a permanent home there, he's going to provide some nice value at 2B this season. He's a 15/40 threat, and if he can hit consistently, he'll be bumped up in the rotation. The #2 spot would be great, but it's nice that they're starting him hitting 9th to allow him to find his groove first. A hot start will cement him in their lineup this season, which is what all his fantasy owners are hoping for.
Brad Lidge blew another save, giving up a 9th innning HR to Xavier Nady. Dan Wheeler owners are smiling, and if no one is a Dan Wheeler owner in your league, become him. He's going to be closing for Houston pretty soon...Garner's not going to give Lidge the same leash he had last season. Albert Pujols has ruined many a pitcher's day, but he just might have ruined Lidge's career with that 2005 NLCS moonshot HR that hasn't landed yet. It didn't help that light hitting Scott Podsednik added one of his own later in the 2005 WS.
On the other hand, Ben Sheets and Felix Hernandez were brilliant yesterday. Sheets offered up a 2 hitter and retired 22 straight batters at one point yesterday. If he stays healthy, he's one of two pitchers (Rich Harden as well) that can stay with Johan Santana in the stats columns. I picked Brandon Webb over him, and I'm curious to see how that pans out. I know Webb was the no brainer pick over Sheets, but Sheets' injury history is a bit misleading. After breaking through in 2004, he spent time on the DL in 2005 with an ear infection, then had shoulder surgery at the end of the year. In 2006 he wasn't fully recovered, and spent more DL time recovering from that surgery. He closed very strong in 2006, enjoyed a healthy offseason, and was a good value this year according to his ADP. He's really only had one major injury, so calling him injury-prone is stretching it. Unfortunately he was taken too high in both of my drafts (went right after my selection of Peavy in my first, and he went right after my selection of Webb in my second).
Felix Hernandez was another great value this season, and he started off strong, with 8 shutout innings and 12 Ks. He threw 111 pitches yesterday, and that's worth monitoring. The Mariners last season rarely allowed him to pass the 100 pitch count. Rumor has it that they will take the gloves off a bit more this season, but given he's still only 20 years old, they have to be careful. If he continues to throw 110+ pitches in the first half, he'll become a strong sell high candidate. Obviously this is only one game and he was dealing yesterday, but it's worth mentioning for someone this young.
No big hitting outputs yesterday, although it was nice to see A-Rod hit a late game HR from a fantasy perspective. If he can get past his struggles in close games, he'll post a stat line much closer to 2005 than 2006. Given he can opt out of his contract at season's end, he's playing for money this year, and that's always a good thing.
B.J. Upton went 2-4 and stole a base while starting at 2B. If he can find a permanent home there, he's going to provide some nice value at 2B this season. He's a 15/40 threat, and if he can hit consistently, he'll be bumped up in the rotation. The #2 spot would be great, but it's nice that they're starting him hitting 9th to allow him to find his groove first. A hot start will cement him in their lineup this season, which is what all his fantasy owners are hoping for.
Brad Lidge blew another save, giving up a 9th innning HR to Xavier Nady. Dan Wheeler owners are smiling, and if no one is a Dan Wheeler owner in your league, become him. He's going to be closing for Houston pretty soon...Garner's not going to give Lidge the same leash he had last season. Albert Pujols has ruined many a pitcher's day, but he just might have ruined Lidge's career with that 2005 NLCS moonshot HR that hasn't landed yet. It didn't help that light hitting Scott Podsednik added one of his own later in the 2005 WS.
Wednesday, March 28, 2007
Mauer OK, Sabathia Not So Much
Joe Mauer: Mauer was diagnosed with a possible stress reaction in his leg, which is the pre-cursor to a stress fracture, which obviously would have sidelined him for some time, especially as a catcher. Luckily the Twins caught it early and it appears to be be nothing as he slugged a HR and a double in a spring training game this morning, along with catching 3 innings.
On a side note concerning Mauer, I feel he's being overrated in drafts as a 2nd and 3rd round pick. There's no question that he's got the skills to be the best fantasy catcher in all of baseball with .320, 100 R, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 10 SB potential, but that's likely his career season, and even then a 2nd round pick on those numbers is stretching it. He must post those numbers to justify taking him where he's going. Position scarcity definitely increases the value of players like Jose Reyes (who's basically Carl Crawford at SS), Chase Utley, and Joe Mauer, but when you draft, you have to understand that taking Joe Mauer in the 2nd round over a player like Travis Hafner is just dumb. Hafner is going to give you .300/100/40/110 pretty much guaranteed, and that's a much wiser investment. If you still have a draft coming up and want Mauer, keep an eye on who else is available and don't pass up bigger, more guaranteed numbers at another position just to have the best catcher. His best value is when he's being drafted right before guys slated to post similar or slightly superior numbers at other deeper positions, not when he's being taken ahead of guys that will post similar to superior numbers to his projected career season.
C.C. Sabathia: Sabathia took a line drive off of his left wrist (his pitching wrist) in a spring training game today. There's no prognosis on his injury as of yet. If you've already drafted him you can hope for the best, but if you haven't drafted yet, I'd drop him in your tier a bit in case he's forced to miss potentially significant time.
On a side note concerning Mauer, I feel he's being overrated in drafts as a 2nd and 3rd round pick. There's no question that he's got the skills to be the best fantasy catcher in all of baseball with .320, 100 R, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 10 SB potential, but that's likely his career season, and even then a 2nd round pick on those numbers is stretching it. He must post those numbers to justify taking him where he's going. Position scarcity definitely increases the value of players like Jose Reyes (who's basically Carl Crawford at SS), Chase Utley, and Joe Mauer, but when you draft, you have to understand that taking Joe Mauer in the 2nd round over a player like Travis Hafner is just dumb. Hafner is going to give you .300/100/40/110 pretty much guaranteed, and that's a much wiser investment. If you still have a draft coming up and want Mauer, keep an eye on who else is available and don't pass up bigger, more guaranteed numbers at another position just to have the best catcher. His best value is when he's being drafted right before guys slated to post similar or slightly superior numbers at other deeper positions, not when he's being taken ahead of guys that will post similar to superior numbers to his projected career season.
C.C. Sabathia: Sabathia took a line drive off of his left wrist (his pitching wrist) in a spring training game today. There's no prognosis on his injury as of yet. If you've already drafted him you can hope for the best, but if you haven't drafted yet, I'd drop him in your tier a bit in case he's forced to miss potentially significant time.
Monday, March 26, 2007
Florida Marlins Trade For Jorge Julio
The Florida Marlins traded SP Yusmeiro Petit to the Arizona Diamondbacks for RP Jorge Julio.
Julio was Arizona's closer last season between Valverde's implosion/demotion and then his promotion back to the majors. After his excellent 2002 season as a setup man/closer for the Orioles, he's progressively gotten worse, although his numbers last year in Arizona were the best since his 2002 season. He's a big strikeout guy, but he's also a big walk guy as well, and he's not exactly a reliable reliever. He's been officially declared as the Marlins' closer.
Fantasy Impact: Go ahead and pick him up as a closer, but don't expect great numbers. He should have fairly good job security until Taylor Tankersley gets healthy, and then it'll depend on how he's pitching versus how Tankersley is pitching as far as who ends the season as Florida's closer. Florida's bigger ballpark might help aid his numbers a bit over last season, and there's a chance he could emerge as a middle tier closer this season. I just wouldn't bet a high waiver priority or a quality hitter/pitcher on it.
Julio was Arizona's closer last season between Valverde's implosion/demotion and then his promotion back to the majors. After his excellent 2002 season as a setup man/closer for the Orioles, he's progressively gotten worse, although his numbers last year in Arizona were the best since his 2002 season. He's a big strikeout guy, but he's also a big walk guy as well, and he's not exactly a reliable reliever. He's been officially declared as the Marlins' closer.
Fantasy Impact: Go ahead and pick him up as a closer, but don't expect great numbers. He should have fairly good job security until Taylor Tankersley gets healthy, and then it'll depend on how he's pitching versus how Tankersley is pitching as far as who ends the season as Florida's closer. Florida's bigger ballpark might help aid his numbers a bit over last season, and there's a chance he could emerge as a middle tier closer this season. I just wouldn't bet a high waiver priority or a quality hitter/pitcher on it.
Fantasy Baseball Draft #2
I had been playing in a local league with some friends in my area for the past 4-5 years, but after most of the people who played last year welched on the $20 buy in (no thanks to the commissioner trying to collect the fees after season ended), I decided not to play in that league anymore. So, I joined another 12 team, 5x5 rotisserie league and ended up with the following team:
C - Mike Piazza (10th round)
1B - David Ortiz (2nd round)
2B - Howie Kendrick (9th round)
SS - Felipe Lopez (12th round)
3B - Alex Rodriguez (1st round)
OF - Jason Bay (3rd round)
OF - Nick Markakis (8th round)
OF - Jeff Francoeur (11th round)
UTIL - Jim Thome (7th round)
Bench - Willy Taveras (13th round)
Bench - Eric Byrnes (20th round)
SP - Brandon Webb (4th round)
SP - Felix Hernandez (6th round)
SP - Anthony Reyes (15th round)
SP - John Patterson (16th round)
SP - Kelvim Escobar (19th round)
SP - Roger Clemens (14th round)
RP - Francisco Rodriguez (5th round)
RP - Jonathan Broxton (17th round)
RP - Dan Wheeler (18th round)
RP - Scot Shields (21st round)
Offense: My offense is stacked with loads of talent. I'm a bit weak in batting average given I don't have anyone that will contend for the batting crown, but on the other hand, Francoeur and Lopez are really the only sub .280 hitters on this squad. I have a lot of HR power, a lot of guys that will see 100+ RBIs and Rs, and 2 SB machines in Lopez and Taveras. Taveras is my favorite "empty speed" player this year in terms of draft value, although he should hit for a decent average in spacious Colorado and score plenty of runs. Piazza is my favorite catcher in redraft leagues this year. His numbers last year aren't terrific, but he still managed a .283 average, 22 HRs, and 68 RBIs playing most of his games in one of the worst hitters ballparks in baseball (Petco Park). He's now the fulltime DH, which means he'll play every day, he's hitting in a better ballpark (Oakland), surrounded by a much better lineup. He's not Mauer/VMart/McCann, but he'll come close (he might even put up the best power numbers of the group), and can be drafted much later. Eric Byrnes, a 25/25 candidate, in the 20th round, is ridiculous value.
Starting Pitching: My starting pitching gets pretty hazy after Brandon Webb. Felix Hernandez was a fantasy baseball disappointment last year thanks to obscene hype, but he's a good value this season with a full major league season under his belt. He's only 21 years old still. He'll be more familiar with his catcher Johjima, which will lead to better called games. He has insane talent and posted solid peripherals after the All-Star break last year. I expect another step forward from the 2nd half of last year. Anthony Reyes has been lights out this spring, and is one of the more unheralded pitching prospects thanks to not having a high 90s fastball. I knew with a big Cardinals fan having two picks after where I grabbed Reyes, I wouldn't get him if I waited. John Patterson is more my #3 starter, and as I stated on my other team, he's a good bounceback candidate this year. He won't win many games, but he'll have great ratios and lots of Ks when healthy. Kelvim Escobar is still a rather underrated pitcher, and while he has plenty of health concerns as well, he's a very good starter when healthy. I took Clemens entirely too high, but since we drafted on Yahoo, I didn't have much time to come up with an emergency plan since I was set on taking Randy Johnson there instead. I panicked.
Relief Pitching: Oops. Well, after I drafted my ace reliever K-Rod, I just gave up on the saves catagory because the entire league completely overvalued closers. The lesser closers were being drafted 3-4 rounds where they should be, and with as much turnover as there is at the position, I had no problem drafting all the other players that fell through the cracks while everyone raced to grab closers. I have no problem grinding out the first month with just K-Rod and seeing what happens with all the other questionable closer positions. Dan Wheeler is my 2nd closer, I guess, because I see no reason why Brad Lidge won't lose his job. He was terrible most of last season, and he's been terrible most of the spring. I could have seen him pulling a 180 degree turnaround if he composed himself this offseason and started strong this spring, but he's still a mess. Broxton and Shields are top notch MRs, and they don't get enough love in rotisserie scoring thanks to the random wins, low ratios, and strong K numbers they offer your team. They're especially helpful if you're worried about some of your starters, as I am.
C - Mike Piazza (10th round)
1B - David Ortiz (2nd round)
2B - Howie Kendrick (9th round)
SS - Felipe Lopez (12th round)
3B - Alex Rodriguez (1st round)
OF - Jason Bay (3rd round)
OF - Nick Markakis (8th round)
OF - Jeff Francoeur (11th round)
UTIL - Jim Thome (7th round)
Bench - Willy Taveras (13th round)
Bench - Eric Byrnes (20th round)
SP - Brandon Webb (4th round)
SP - Felix Hernandez (6th round)
SP - Anthony Reyes (15th round)
SP - John Patterson (16th round)
SP - Kelvim Escobar (19th round)
SP - Roger Clemens (14th round)
RP - Francisco Rodriguez (5th round)
RP - Jonathan Broxton (17th round)
RP - Dan Wheeler (18th round)
RP - Scot Shields (21st round)
Offense: My offense is stacked with loads of talent. I'm a bit weak in batting average given I don't have anyone that will contend for the batting crown, but on the other hand, Francoeur and Lopez are really the only sub .280 hitters on this squad. I have a lot of HR power, a lot of guys that will see 100+ RBIs and Rs, and 2 SB machines in Lopez and Taveras. Taveras is my favorite "empty speed" player this year in terms of draft value, although he should hit for a decent average in spacious Colorado and score plenty of runs. Piazza is my favorite catcher in redraft leagues this year. His numbers last year aren't terrific, but he still managed a .283 average, 22 HRs, and 68 RBIs playing most of his games in one of the worst hitters ballparks in baseball (Petco Park). He's now the fulltime DH, which means he'll play every day, he's hitting in a better ballpark (Oakland), surrounded by a much better lineup. He's not Mauer/VMart/McCann, but he'll come close (he might even put up the best power numbers of the group), and can be drafted much later. Eric Byrnes, a 25/25 candidate, in the 20th round, is ridiculous value.
Starting Pitching: My starting pitching gets pretty hazy after Brandon Webb. Felix Hernandez was a fantasy baseball disappointment last year thanks to obscene hype, but he's a good value this season with a full major league season under his belt. He's only 21 years old still. He'll be more familiar with his catcher Johjima, which will lead to better called games. He has insane talent and posted solid peripherals after the All-Star break last year. I expect another step forward from the 2nd half of last year. Anthony Reyes has been lights out this spring, and is one of the more unheralded pitching prospects thanks to not having a high 90s fastball. I knew with a big Cardinals fan having two picks after where I grabbed Reyes, I wouldn't get him if I waited. John Patterson is more my #3 starter, and as I stated on my other team, he's a good bounceback candidate this year. He won't win many games, but he'll have great ratios and lots of Ks when healthy. Kelvim Escobar is still a rather underrated pitcher, and while he has plenty of health concerns as well, he's a very good starter when healthy. I took Clemens entirely too high, but since we drafted on Yahoo, I didn't have much time to come up with an emergency plan since I was set on taking Randy Johnson there instead. I panicked.
Relief Pitching: Oops. Well, after I drafted my ace reliever K-Rod, I just gave up on the saves catagory because the entire league completely overvalued closers. The lesser closers were being drafted 3-4 rounds where they should be, and with as much turnover as there is at the position, I had no problem drafting all the other players that fell through the cracks while everyone raced to grab closers. I have no problem grinding out the first month with just K-Rod and seeing what happens with all the other questionable closer positions. Dan Wheeler is my 2nd closer, I guess, because I see no reason why Brad Lidge won't lose his job. He was terrible most of last season, and he's been terrible most of the spring. I could have seen him pulling a 180 degree turnaround if he composed himself this offseason and started strong this spring, but he's still a mess. Broxton and Shields are top notch MRs, and they don't get enough love in rotisserie scoring thanks to the random wins, low ratios, and strong K numbers they offer your team. They're especially helpful if you're worried about some of your starters, as I am.
Friday, March 23, 2007
Boston Red Sox (Re)Name Jonathan Papelbon As Closer
The Boston Red Sox have officially announced that P Jonathan Papelbon will be moving back to the bullpen and into the closer's role.
All of Boston can let out a collective sigh of relief...the biggest hole on the team has been filled by one of last season's best. Papelbon was drafted and came up through the Boston Red Sox system as a starting pitcher, and a very highly regarded one at that. He throws mid-90s with plus breaking pitches, and had the ability to be a #2 starter for this team in time. However, due to bullpen issues last season, he started spring training last year as the team's closer, and finished with a ridiculous 0.92 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and 75 Ks in 68 1/3 IP. He was arguably the best closer in baseball last year, but the Red Sox felt he could help them more as a starter this season. Given he also had shoulder issues towards the end of the season which shut him down, they also thought a the regular work schedule of being a starter would help prevent future problems.
Boston started to look outside the organization for a new closer, but judging from the lack of a trade, it appears the asking price was too high for the closers on the market. Their in-house candidates included Julian Tavarez and Joel Piniero...hardly anyone worth handing the ball toin the 9th inning. Relief prospects Craig Hansen and Manny Delcarmen haven't developed as quickly as the Red Sox would have liked, either. Boston already has a talented rotation of Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Wakefield, with Julian Tavarez moving into the 5th starter position. Hopefully Jon Lester will return from cancer to claim the 5th starter's role in time. Given the talent and experience they have there, moving Papelbon to the bullpen makes a lot of sense. They better hope the irregular pattern of being a closer doesn't cause more shoulder concerns for Papelbon, but I doubt they'd make the move unless they were fairly certain this is the case.
Fantasy Impact: For those who have already drafted, Papelbon moves from a potential #4/#5 starter for your fantasy team to your team's best closer just like that. This is big news for all teams since it's much easier to find a capable replacement starter than it is to land an elite closer. For those who haven't drafted, adjust your rankings immediately. Papelbon joins the elite closers such as Francisco Rodriguez, Joe Nathan, and Billy Wagner, and should be taken in the 4th/5th round area. Beware of more shoulder problems when drafting, though, so I'd still take K-Rod and Nathan ahead of him.
All of Boston can let out a collective sigh of relief...the biggest hole on the team has been filled by one of last season's best. Papelbon was drafted and came up through the Boston Red Sox system as a starting pitcher, and a very highly regarded one at that. He throws mid-90s with plus breaking pitches, and had the ability to be a #2 starter for this team in time. However, due to bullpen issues last season, he started spring training last year as the team's closer, and finished with a ridiculous 0.92 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and 75 Ks in 68 1/3 IP. He was arguably the best closer in baseball last year, but the Red Sox felt he could help them more as a starter this season. Given he also had shoulder issues towards the end of the season which shut him down, they also thought a the regular work schedule of being a starter would help prevent future problems.
Boston started to look outside the organization for a new closer, but judging from the lack of a trade, it appears the asking price was too high for the closers on the market. Their in-house candidates included Julian Tavarez and Joel Piniero...hardly anyone worth handing the ball toin the 9th inning. Relief prospects Craig Hansen and Manny Delcarmen haven't developed as quickly as the Red Sox would have liked, either. Boston already has a talented rotation of Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Wakefield, with Julian Tavarez moving into the 5th starter position. Hopefully Jon Lester will return from cancer to claim the 5th starter's role in time. Given the talent and experience they have there, moving Papelbon to the bullpen makes a lot of sense. They better hope the irregular pattern of being a closer doesn't cause more shoulder concerns for Papelbon, but I doubt they'd make the move unless they were fairly certain this is the case.
Fantasy Impact: For those who have already drafted, Papelbon moves from a potential #4/#5 starter for your fantasy team to your team's best closer just like that. This is big news for all teams since it's much easier to find a capable replacement starter than it is to land an elite closer. For those who haven't drafted, adjust your rankings immediately. Papelbon joins the elite closers such as Francisco Rodriguez, Joe Nathan, and Billy Wagner, and should be taken in the 4th/5th round area. Beware of more shoulder problems when drafting, though, so I'd still take K-Rod and Nathan ahead of him.
Texans Trade For Matt Schaub
The Houston Texans have acquired QB Matt Schaub from the Atlanta Falcons for a 2007 2nd round pick, a 2008 2nd round pick, and a swap of the #8 and #10 overall picks for 2007. See that door, David Carr? Don't let it sack you on the way out.
Houston immediately signed Schaub to a big extension, ensuring that he's the unquestioned starting QB. What remains to be seen is if Schaub is a legitimate starting QB like some NFL scouts seem to think he is, or if he's a victim of comparison to Michael Vick's shortcomings at the QB position. He's not being put into the best situation in that Houston's offensive line is still suspect, Ahman Green is a partially broken down 30 year old RB, and they have nothing to throw to opposite Andre Johnson. However, David Carr's mental state has to be questioned after being sacked so many times in his career, and one would think that Schaub will immediately bring a stronger pocket presence and decision making.
While this makes it even more important that Vick stays healthy and improves his throwing deficiencies this season, there wasn't any question that he's still the starting QB of the present and future for this franchise. Even if they had doubts, the economics of releasing him weren't kind given the cap hit they'd have to endure. Schaub would have been a free agent at the end of this season, and there's no question some team would have signed him to become their starter. That all said, Atlanta made out like a bandit here. They traded a QB who would only play if Vick got hurt, and turned him into 2 2nd round picks, 1 in each this year's draft and next year's draft, and also got to move up 2 spots in this year's first round as well. Given Petrino is changing this offense, it gives them additional firepower to upgrade. There's rumors that Atlanta could use the additional picks to move up farther in the 1st round and get Calvin Johnson, but I still don't think they have enough to move up, especially if Oakland wants to take him. There's a very strong chance that Atlanta drafts former Petrino RB Michael Bush in the 2nd round now, especially since he'll be a perfect fit into their new offensive scheme.
Fantasy Impact: Schaub is a first time starter in a less than average offense, so I wouldn't want him as a QB2. He's someone to keep an eye on, but that's it. Schaub should give the passing game a slight boost, but Ahman Green's value is more tied to his durability (or lack of) and the play of the offensive line, so I wouldn't adjust him anywhere at this point. Andre Johnson stands to benefit the most as Schaub has a fairly strong arm and one has to think Houston will take more shots down the field to utilize his insane speed/size combination. Look for more big plays from AJ this season, and he's a great WR2 with stronger WR1 upside now. There's nobody else in their receiving group that's even worth drafting at this point.
Houston immediately signed Schaub to a big extension, ensuring that he's the unquestioned starting QB. What remains to be seen is if Schaub is a legitimate starting QB like some NFL scouts seem to think he is, or if he's a victim of comparison to Michael Vick's shortcomings at the QB position. He's not being put into the best situation in that Houston's offensive line is still suspect, Ahman Green is a partially broken down 30 year old RB, and they have nothing to throw to opposite Andre Johnson. However, David Carr's mental state has to be questioned after being sacked so many times in his career, and one would think that Schaub will immediately bring a stronger pocket presence and decision making.
While this makes it even more important that Vick stays healthy and improves his throwing deficiencies this season, there wasn't any question that he's still the starting QB of the present and future for this franchise. Even if they had doubts, the economics of releasing him weren't kind given the cap hit they'd have to endure. Schaub would have been a free agent at the end of this season, and there's no question some team would have signed him to become their starter. That all said, Atlanta made out like a bandit here. They traded a QB who would only play if Vick got hurt, and turned him into 2 2nd round picks, 1 in each this year's draft and next year's draft, and also got to move up 2 spots in this year's first round as well. Given Petrino is changing this offense, it gives them additional firepower to upgrade. There's rumors that Atlanta could use the additional picks to move up farther in the 1st round and get Calvin Johnson, but I still don't think they have enough to move up, especially if Oakland wants to take him. There's a very strong chance that Atlanta drafts former Petrino RB Michael Bush in the 2nd round now, especially since he'll be a perfect fit into their new offensive scheme.
Fantasy Impact: Schaub is a first time starter in a less than average offense, so I wouldn't want him as a QB2. He's someone to keep an eye on, but that's it. Schaub should give the passing game a slight boost, but Ahman Green's value is more tied to his durability (or lack of) and the play of the offensive line, so I wouldn't adjust him anywhere at this point. Andre Johnson stands to benefit the most as Schaub has a fairly strong arm and one has to think Houston will take more shots down the field to utilize his insane speed/size combination. Look for more big plays from AJ this season, and he's a great WR2 with stronger WR1 upside now. There's nobody else in their receiving group that's even worth drafting at this point.
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
Bears Trade For Adam Archuleta
The Chicago Bears have traded a conditional 2007 6th round draft pick to the Washington Redskins for S Adam Archuleta.
I love this deal for my beloved Bears. They really wanted to sign him last offseason, but as Washington always does, they overpaid and got him. An atrocious year later, the 'Skins have given up on their investment and have traded him away for peanuts. Gotta love an idiot with money! Well, unless he's running (ruining?) your favorite team.
Archuleta's stock was on the rise while playing S for the St. Louis Rams under Lovie Smith. It appears as though he fits best in a Cover 2 scheme as he thrived in St. Louis, but crashed in Washington's man-to-man defense. He's a big hitter who's great in run support, but has coverage issues. Playing in a 2 deep scheme will allow him to defend an area as opposed to a man, and re-uniting him with his old defensive coordinator might be just what he needs to re-emerge as a quality safety. Given the problems the Bears have had with their safeties, this is a cheap price to pay for someone who could prove to be a valuable performer.
Mike Brown is injury-prone and coming back from a nasty foot fracture, Chris Harris can't cover even in a 2 deep scheme, and rumor has it that Danieal Manning might move to cornerback. Given Todd Johnson has left via free agency and Mike Brown could be cut if he doesn't restructure the contract he's earning without playing, this filled a big void on defense at a bargain price. Kudos, Jerry Angelo!
I love this deal for my beloved Bears. They really wanted to sign him last offseason, but as Washington always does, they overpaid and got him. An atrocious year later, the 'Skins have given up on their investment and have traded him away for peanuts. Gotta love an idiot with money! Well, unless he's running (ruining?) your favorite team.
Archuleta's stock was on the rise while playing S for the St. Louis Rams under Lovie Smith. It appears as though he fits best in a Cover 2 scheme as he thrived in St. Louis, but crashed in Washington's man-to-man defense. He's a big hitter who's great in run support, but has coverage issues. Playing in a 2 deep scheme will allow him to defend an area as opposed to a man, and re-uniting him with his old defensive coordinator might be just what he needs to re-emerge as a quality safety. Given the problems the Bears have had with their safeties, this is a cheap price to pay for someone who could prove to be a valuable performer.
Mike Brown is injury-prone and coming back from a nasty foot fracture, Chris Harris can't cover even in a 2 deep scheme, and rumor has it that Danieal Manning might move to cornerback. Given Todd Johnson has left via free agency and Mike Brown could be cut if he doesn't restructure the contract he's earning without playing, this filled a big void on defense at a bargain price. Kudos, Jerry Angelo!
Eagles Sign Kevin Curtis
Philly wasn't active early on in free agency, but this is an excellent signing for them. Re-signing Stallworth was not worth it to the franchise thanks to his injuries and history of drops. To be honest, I think Kevin Curtis is almost identical to Stallworth, but without the hamstring problems, dropped passes, and hefty pricetag. He'll fit right into Stallworth's role in the offense as the deep threat. Curtis is only an inch shorter than Stallworth, has similar speed, has better hands, and runs better routes. He should fit perfectly into their offense.
Fantasy Impact: His value relies slightly on McNabb's recovery from a torn ACL. Philly has confidence that A.J. Feeley will be a solid backup as evidenced by them signing him to a 3 year deal this offseason, but obviously Feeley doesn't have arm or mobility that McNabb possesses. At any rate, in Philly's pass-first offense, Curtis should be a reliable WR3 on a weekly basis, with a bit more upside if McNabb is healthy. Reggie Brown will be the #1 WR, but Curtis should provide more big plays.
Fantasy Impact: His value relies slightly on McNabb's recovery from a torn ACL. Philly has confidence that A.J. Feeley will be a solid backup as evidenced by them signing him to a 3 year deal this offseason, but obviously Feeley doesn't have arm or mobility that McNabb possesses. At any rate, in Philly's pass-first offense, Curtis should be a reliable WR3 on a weekly basis, with a bit more upside if McNabb is healthy. Reggie Brown will be the #1 WR, but Curtis should provide more big plays.
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
My Completed Fantasy Baseball Team
Our draft is complete and here is my final drafted roster:
C - Joe Mauer
1B - Mark Teixeira
2B - Howie Kendrick, Jeff Kent
SS - Jhonny Peralta
3B - Hank Blalock, B.J. Upton
OF - Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rios, Jonny Gomes, Chris Young, Jeremy Hermida
SP - Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Curt Schilling, John Patterson, Daniel Cabrera, Mark Prior
RP - Joe Nathan, Takashi Saito, Scot Shields, Scott Linebrink
Overall I'm pretty happy with my choices. I have a lot of bounceback candidates on offense (Kent, Peralta, Blalock), but those are the way to go in the later rounds. I believe all 3 of these guys will outperform their draft position. Peralta has reportedly worked on his range in the offseason and is playing better defense, and whenever that happens for a guy who took criticism on that part of his game, he relaxes at the plate more and usually hits better. Blalock is now healthy, and with a great coach guiding him along, he's still young enough to get back to becoming a great 3B. Upton is one of my favorite sleepers this year. Tampa Bay is playing him all over the diamond with the hopes of using him as their super utility man this season, and his offensive potential is amazing. He has 50 steal speed, plus good pop for a middle infielder. He's only eligible at 3B for right now, but he's been playing 2B, SS, and OF as well this spring. They're moving him around because his defense at SS, his drafted position, was dreadful in the minors as he committed a ton of errors. Moving him around might seem stupid, but they want him to play all over to see where he best fits so they can get his bat into the lineup. If he becomes eligible at all of those positions while playing 5-6 times a week, he'll be very valuable. Kendrick is a young hitter whom I look to take a big step forward this year. I think he's the best 2B value in the draft as he has the offensive ability to settle in right behind Utley as fantasy baseball's best offensive 2B.
My starting pitching is very solid, especially with Cabrera having a lights out spring so far. It seems like the laser eye surgery he had this offseason has improved his command (the goggles he doned last year helped him down the stretch), and he's a great breakout candidate. My bullpen is solid too. I only have 2 closers, but that's OK to start with. I was very displeased that Broxton went too early as I would have really liked to pair him with Saito. As it stands now, I own two of the best middle relievers in the game who will soldify my ratios, give me plenty of Ks, and add a few wins (both had 7 last year). I only drafted two closers last year (Gordon, Ray) and ended up winning the saves catagory as teams that fall out of it look to dump their closers in order to improve their keepers. Plus the waiver wire produces great closers seemingly every year as Jon Papelbon, JJ Putz, and Takashi Saito are examples of.
After waivers cleared (I have #1 waiver priority, and I'm definitely saving that), I decided to help my inexperienced OF depth. I don't want to start Hermida right off the bat, so here's what I did:
Dropped Jonny Gomes, Picked Up Aubrey Huff
Gomes has been dreadful so far this spring, flirting with the .100 mark while hitting both of his HRs in the same game. Given he's battling for playing time, I don't need to be potentially starting someone who's fighting to start and get at bats. Huff should have been drafted, and I'm surprised he wasn't. He had a big year for Tampa Bay in 2003, and followed that up with a very solid 2004. He's struggled the last two seasons, but he'll be hitting 5th behind Roberts, Mora, Markakis, and Tejada, so he should have plenty of RBI chances. He's eligible at both OF and 3B, and position eligibility is a nice bonus for offensive players. Their versatility helps fill the gaps when players get a day off.
Dropped Mark Prior, Picked Up Moises Alou
Mark Prior has topped out at 87 MPH on the gun, and will actually be making his next spring training start in the minors while he works out his issues. Given his injury past and his ineffectiveness this spring so far, it's not looking good for him. He's not worth stashing in a mixed league right now. I drafted him late hoping he'd throw well in the spring, but he's been about as bad as possible so far. Alou has remained a very effective hitter despite his age, and he'll be hitting 6th in a loaded Mets lineup. At least one DL stint is guaranteed, but he still has good power and will have lots of RBI chances hitting behind Beltran, Delgado, and Wright. He's hit at least .280 3 years running, so he won't hurt my batting average either.
Let the season begin!
C - Joe Mauer
1B - Mark Teixeira
2B - Howie Kendrick, Jeff Kent
SS - Jhonny Peralta
3B - Hank Blalock, B.J. Upton
OF - Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rios, Jonny Gomes, Chris Young, Jeremy Hermida
SP - Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Curt Schilling, John Patterson, Daniel Cabrera, Mark Prior
RP - Joe Nathan, Takashi Saito, Scot Shields, Scott Linebrink
Overall I'm pretty happy with my choices. I have a lot of bounceback candidates on offense (Kent, Peralta, Blalock), but those are the way to go in the later rounds. I believe all 3 of these guys will outperform their draft position. Peralta has reportedly worked on his range in the offseason and is playing better defense, and whenever that happens for a guy who took criticism on that part of his game, he relaxes at the plate more and usually hits better. Blalock is now healthy, and with a great coach guiding him along, he's still young enough to get back to becoming a great 3B. Upton is one of my favorite sleepers this year. Tampa Bay is playing him all over the diamond with the hopes of using him as their super utility man this season, and his offensive potential is amazing. He has 50 steal speed, plus good pop for a middle infielder. He's only eligible at 3B for right now, but he's been playing 2B, SS, and OF as well this spring. They're moving him around because his defense at SS, his drafted position, was dreadful in the minors as he committed a ton of errors. Moving him around might seem stupid, but they want him to play all over to see where he best fits so they can get his bat into the lineup. If he becomes eligible at all of those positions while playing 5-6 times a week, he'll be very valuable. Kendrick is a young hitter whom I look to take a big step forward this year. I think he's the best 2B value in the draft as he has the offensive ability to settle in right behind Utley as fantasy baseball's best offensive 2B.
My starting pitching is very solid, especially with Cabrera having a lights out spring so far. It seems like the laser eye surgery he had this offseason has improved his command (the goggles he doned last year helped him down the stretch), and he's a great breakout candidate. My bullpen is solid too. I only have 2 closers, but that's OK to start with. I was very displeased that Broxton went too early as I would have really liked to pair him with Saito. As it stands now, I own two of the best middle relievers in the game who will soldify my ratios, give me plenty of Ks, and add a few wins (both had 7 last year). I only drafted two closers last year (Gordon, Ray) and ended up winning the saves catagory as teams that fall out of it look to dump their closers in order to improve their keepers. Plus the waiver wire produces great closers seemingly every year as Jon Papelbon, JJ Putz, and Takashi Saito are examples of.
After waivers cleared (I have #1 waiver priority, and I'm definitely saving that), I decided to help my inexperienced OF depth. I don't want to start Hermida right off the bat, so here's what I did:
Dropped Jonny Gomes, Picked Up Aubrey Huff
Gomes has been dreadful so far this spring, flirting with the .100 mark while hitting both of his HRs in the same game. Given he's battling for playing time, I don't need to be potentially starting someone who's fighting to start and get at bats. Huff should have been drafted, and I'm surprised he wasn't. He had a big year for Tampa Bay in 2003, and followed that up with a very solid 2004. He's struggled the last two seasons, but he'll be hitting 5th behind Roberts, Mora, Markakis, and Tejada, so he should have plenty of RBI chances. He's eligible at both OF and 3B, and position eligibility is a nice bonus for offensive players. Their versatility helps fill the gaps when players get a day off.
Dropped Mark Prior, Picked Up Moises Alou
Mark Prior has topped out at 87 MPH on the gun, and will actually be making his next spring training start in the minors while he works out his issues. Given his injury past and his ineffectiveness this spring so far, it's not looking good for him. He's not worth stashing in a mixed league right now. I drafted him late hoping he'd throw well in the spring, but he's been about as bad as possible so far. Alou has remained a very effective hitter despite his age, and he'll be hitting 6th in a loaded Mets lineup. At least one DL stint is guaranteed, but he still has good power and will have lots of RBI chances hitting behind Beltran, Delgado, and Wright. He's hit at least .280 3 years running, so he won't hurt my batting average either.
Let the season begin!
Sunday, March 11, 2007
Baltimore Trades For Willis McGahee
This may be a curious move to some from Buffalo's point of view, but let me explain this from both sides. From Baltimore's side, it was obvious over the past two seasons that Jamal Lewis has lost it. Their defense is ready to win now, as is McNair, so they needed a young, powerful running attack to complete their team and give them a chance to reach the Super Bowl next year. McGahee gives them exactly that, and while he's disappointed the past two seasons, he hasn't lost his talent. He's been mired in a horrible offensive situation the past two seasons, running behind one of the worst offensive lines in football combined with a very erratic, mostly ineffective passing attack. He had a monster senior year at Miami before tearing up his knee, and then he turned in a huge 2004 season after recovering from that knee injury and taking over for Travis Henry. Once Bledsoe left, who helped McGahee out a lot in 2004, Buffalo was without a QB ready to play at the NFL level, and the offense took a sharp decline.
Given that McGahee was not effective the past two seasons and still wanted a huge pay raise, Buffalo was not willing to commit that sort of money to him. Knowing he was frustrated with the situation the past couple of seasons, they understood they'd lose him for nothing after this season, so they decided to get something for him. A 3rd round pick might not seem like much, but all 1st day picks in the NFL draft have value and Buffalo got two of them over the next two years in return for him, plus a 7th this season. They did well here, but they're left without an impact starting RB on the roster. Last seasons' backup/starter fill-in, Anthony Thomas, has re-signed with the team, but he's only a situational RB. Chris Brown remains the only capable free agent RB of making an impact, but he has already visited Buffalo and left without a contract.
Fantasy Impact: Oddly enough, Willis McGahee *might* be undervalued in drafts next season. After 2 straight seasons of being a fantasy bust, some owners might shy away from him. While he doesn't have great pass catching skills, he still possesses a great size/speed combination. He will be running behind the best offensive line and playing in the best surrounding offensive situation of his career. The Baltimore offense, while not potent, should be able to move the ball effectively, and they will give McGahee plenty of touches. He's worthy of a late 1st round selection as a RB1, and I'd consider him a steal if he slipped to the 2nd round. Given the uncertainty at the RB position and his lock on the job, I'd be surprised if he made it out of the 1st round though.
Given that McGahee was not effective the past two seasons and still wanted a huge pay raise, Buffalo was not willing to commit that sort of money to him. Knowing he was frustrated with the situation the past couple of seasons, they understood they'd lose him for nothing after this season, so they decided to get something for him. A 3rd round pick might not seem like much, but all 1st day picks in the NFL draft have value and Buffalo got two of them over the next two years in return for him, plus a 7th this season. They did well here, but they're left without an impact starting RB on the roster. Last seasons' backup/starter fill-in, Anthony Thomas, has re-signed with the team, but he's only a situational RB. Chris Brown remains the only capable free agent RB of making an impact, but he has already visited Buffalo and left without a contract.
Fantasy Impact: Oddly enough, Willis McGahee *might* be undervalued in drafts next season. After 2 straight seasons of being a fantasy bust, some owners might shy away from him. While he doesn't have great pass catching skills, he still possesses a great size/speed combination. He will be running behind the best offensive line and playing in the best surrounding offensive situation of his career. The Baltimore offense, while not potent, should be able to move the ball effectively, and they will give McGahee plenty of touches. He's worthy of a late 1st round selection as a RB1, and I'd consider him a steal if he slipped to the 2nd round. Given the uncertainty at the RB position and his lock on the job, I'd be surprised if he made it out of the 1st round though.
Free Agency In Full Force, Part 2
Here's the 2nd round of free agency deals:
Oakland Signs Dominic Rhodes
I think it's too soon to understand the impact of this situation, but I also think LaMont Jordan is still the most talenteded RB on this roster, and he will be given the chance to maintain his starting job. Rhodes was mostly unimpressive last year, but closed strong in a contract push during the playoffs. He's really not much more than a situational/backup RB, and given that he doesn't possess a skill set much different from Jordan, it appears that he was signed to be the backup RB. However, he was given too much money to completely ignore. Justin Fargas has not impressed during his starting chances, so they needed additional depth. Fargas is definitely the fastest RB on the roster, so he'll probably have a chance to be the change-of-pace back. He also has a history with current coach Steve Sarksian when he played at USC, so he can't be ignored either as long as he remains on the roster. This signing is better for Jordan's fantasy value than Oakland addressing the RB position in the draft, but he still remains a better bet as an RB3 with RB2 upside given the currently muddled situation rather than an RB2. It'll definitely be worth monitoring the situation in the offseason to see how this all pans out given Oakland now has 3 RBs vying for playing time on a brand new coaching staff.
Indianapolis Fallout - Joseph Addai is now the unquestioned starter for the Colts, and given the high octane offense that he plays on, he'll be flirting with RB1 status come your draft next season. He'll probably be the one of the better RB1 values on draft day and worth persuing in later on in the 1st round.
Cleveland Signs Jamal Lewis
Jamal Lewis found the only place that wanted him where he'll have a chance to see a significant amount of carries. I still expect the Browns to select Adrian Peterson, but given Crennel is on the hotseat and is expected to start winning now, it's possible the Browns wanted to get a starting RB via FA, and then address another hole with the #3 overall pick. It would be a big mistake given how slow and sluggish Lewis has looked the past 2 seasons to rely on him as more than a part-time RB. The injuries he's sustained through the years are catching up to him, and he's likely slowing down faster than most RBs despite him only being 27 years old. It's a shame given he was the face of their offense for a number of years. His fantasy value is completely dependent on the NFL Draft, so I'll wait to evaluate him until after the draft in April.
Baltimore Fallout - They traded for McGahee, which I'll cover in it's own topic, so they won't miss Jamal Lewis.
New York Giants Trade For Reuben Droughns
This is great news for the fantasy value of Brandon Jacobs. I expect the Giants will probably add more RB talent in the draft, but Droughns has spent time at both RB and FB in his career, and the Giants gave up very little (disappointing WR Tim Carter) to acquire him. Droughns will give the Giants a versatile backup RB who can start given an injury, but like the Jordan/Rhodes situation in Oakland, his skill set isn't different than Jacobs' skill set, so he'll be firmly entrenched as the backup. Jacobs will be in line for 20 carries a season next year, including goal line work, so he'll definitely be a worthy RB2 to draft. If the Giants don't add any top-notch RB talent in the draft, Droughns is worth a pick as a RB4 or as a handcuff to Jacobs. He'll likely be the starter if Jacobs goes down in this scenario.
Cleveland Fallout - With Jamal Lewis slated to start and the Browns likely to add a RB on the 1st day of the draft, Droughns will not be missed.
Detroit Signs T.J. Duckett
Amid rumors that Detroit is interested in trading Tatum Bell, this signing seems to indicate that they won't make a deal. They'll likely have to be offered something completely ridiculous for Tatum Bell to want to deal him. Duckett is not a starting RB in the NFL, however he possesses great straight-line power and is a perfect complement with Tatum Bell. This signing seems to indicate that Detroit is not convinced that Kevin Jones will recover until mid-season, especially given that both Tatum Bell and Duckett are on one year contracts. It does, however, show that Detroit is fully committed to Kevin Jones as their RB of the future. Duckett crushes Tatum's value while KJ is hurt as Duckett will vulture the TDs at the goal line for Detroit. Tatum is better suited as an RB3 now. Duckett is a decent RB4, and perhaps an RB3 in TD-only leagues.
Washington Fallout - With Portis returning healthy and Betts as his backup, Washington had no need for Duckett.
New England Signs Donte Stallworth
New England has done a nice job picking up quality value at the WR position this offseason. Stallworth's value on the free agency market took a bit hit with the news that he's enrolled in the NFL's substance-abuse program. The Patriots then swooped in and essentially gave Stallworth a one year deal. No matter what Stallworth does this season, he's likely just insurance for Chad Jackson. Jackson didn't develop as quickly as the Patriots coaching staff would have liked, plus he suffered a knee injury towards the end of the season. Jackson still remains a very talented WR of the future for this franchise. Stallworth will immediately become their deep threat, but with all the WRs on the Patriots roster now (Stallworth, Welker, Jackson, Gaffney, Caldwell), it'd be a mistake to think Stallworth will rack up big numbers in New England's offense. He'll likely be overvalued next season and is probably best fit as a WR3.
Philadelphia Fallout - Reggie Brown becomes the unquestioned #1 WR for the Eagles and could provide excellent value in drafts next season. He'll have the opportunity to post WR2 numbers as someone probably drafted in the WR3 range.
Atlanta Signs Joe Horn
This was a good signing for a Falcons team void of a reliable WR. Horn will provide consistent hands, which is something Vick hasn't had at the WR position during his career. Horn will also provide young WRs Michael Jenkins and Roddy White with a mentor for how to play the position at the NFL level and could help their development. In terms of his fantasy value, I have a feeling he'll be overvalued due to the assumption he'll be the unquestioned #1 WR on this offense, and also due to name recognition. The fact is that he's a 35 year old WR who is coming off of 2 seasons marred by leg injuries. He isn't the deep threat he once was, and to draft him as anything more than a WR3 would be a mistake. He'll have a chance to post a 1000 yard/6 TD season if he stays healthy, but odds of him surpassing that are weak.
New Orleans Fallout - Marques Colston is now the unquestioned #1 WR for New Orleans, and he proved last year when Horn was out that he had no problem taking on #1 corners. He's now entrenched as a lower-end WR1 and should be drafted in the top 12 WRs next year. The fact he'll know the offense and the NFL better next year is a scary proposition for opponents give the immense success he had as a rookie.
St. Louis Signs Randy McMichael
Well, apparently Scott Linehan did not like what he saw in his 2 rookie TEs (Joe Klopfenstein, Dominique Byrd) last season. Shortly after Miami cut McMichael, Linehan quickly moved to sign his old Miami TE. Linehan knows how to use him, so McMichael should maintain the same fantasy value as he used to have on Miami, a lower option as a TE1. This should also help Bulger's fantasy value as he'll have another talented option to throw the ball to. McMichael is still young, so this squashes the chance that Klopfenstein would have had to emerge this season and also severely dulls his long term value in dynasty leagues.
Oakland Signs Dominic Rhodes
I think it's too soon to understand the impact of this situation, but I also think LaMont Jordan is still the most talenteded RB on this roster, and he will be given the chance to maintain his starting job. Rhodes was mostly unimpressive last year, but closed strong in a contract push during the playoffs. He's really not much more than a situational/backup RB, and given that he doesn't possess a skill set much different from Jordan, it appears that he was signed to be the backup RB. However, he was given too much money to completely ignore. Justin Fargas has not impressed during his starting chances, so they needed additional depth. Fargas is definitely the fastest RB on the roster, so he'll probably have a chance to be the change-of-pace back. He also has a history with current coach Steve Sarksian when he played at USC, so he can't be ignored either as long as he remains on the roster. This signing is better for Jordan's fantasy value than Oakland addressing the RB position in the draft, but he still remains a better bet as an RB3 with RB2 upside given the currently muddled situation rather than an RB2. It'll definitely be worth monitoring the situation in the offseason to see how this all pans out given Oakland now has 3 RBs vying for playing time on a brand new coaching staff.
Indianapolis Fallout - Joseph Addai is now the unquestioned starter for the Colts, and given the high octane offense that he plays on, he'll be flirting with RB1 status come your draft next season. He'll probably be the one of the better RB1 values on draft day and worth persuing in later on in the 1st round.
Cleveland Signs Jamal Lewis
Jamal Lewis found the only place that wanted him where he'll have a chance to see a significant amount of carries. I still expect the Browns to select Adrian Peterson, but given Crennel is on the hotseat and is expected to start winning now, it's possible the Browns wanted to get a starting RB via FA, and then address another hole with the #3 overall pick. It would be a big mistake given how slow and sluggish Lewis has looked the past 2 seasons to rely on him as more than a part-time RB. The injuries he's sustained through the years are catching up to him, and he's likely slowing down faster than most RBs despite him only being 27 years old. It's a shame given he was the face of their offense for a number of years. His fantasy value is completely dependent on the NFL Draft, so I'll wait to evaluate him until after the draft in April.
Baltimore Fallout - They traded for McGahee, which I'll cover in it's own topic, so they won't miss Jamal Lewis.
New York Giants Trade For Reuben Droughns
This is great news for the fantasy value of Brandon Jacobs. I expect the Giants will probably add more RB talent in the draft, but Droughns has spent time at both RB and FB in his career, and the Giants gave up very little (disappointing WR Tim Carter) to acquire him. Droughns will give the Giants a versatile backup RB who can start given an injury, but like the Jordan/Rhodes situation in Oakland, his skill set isn't different than Jacobs' skill set, so he'll be firmly entrenched as the backup. Jacobs will be in line for 20 carries a season next year, including goal line work, so he'll definitely be a worthy RB2 to draft. If the Giants don't add any top-notch RB talent in the draft, Droughns is worth a pick as a RB4 or as a handcuff to Jacobs. He'll likely be the starter if Jacobs goes down in this scenario.
Cleveland Fallout - With Jamal Lewis slated to start and the Browns likely to add a RB on the 1st day of the draft, Droughns will not be missed.
Detroit Signs T.J. Duckett
Amid rumors that Detroit is interested in trading Tatum Bell, this signing seems to indicate that they won't make a deal. They'll likely have to be offered something completely ridiculous for Tatum Bell to want to deal him. Duckett is not a starting RB in the NFL, however he possesses great straight-line power and is a perfect complement with Tatum Bell. This signing seems to indicate that Detroit is not convinced that Kevin Jones will recover until mid-season, especially given that both Tatum Bell and Duckett are on one year contracts. It does, however, show that Detroit is fully committed to Kevin Jones as their RB of the future. Duckett crushes Tatum's value while KJ is hurt as Duckett will vulture the TDs at the goal line for Detroit. Tatum is better suited as an RB3 now. Duckett is a decent RB4, and perhaps an RB3 in TD-only leagues.
Washington Fallout - With Portis returning healthy and Betts as his backup, Washington had no need for Duckett.
New England Signs Donte Stallworth
New England has done a nice job picking up quality value at the WR position this offseason. Stallworth's value on the free agency market took a bit hit with the news that he's enrolled in the NFL's substance-abuse program. The Patriots then swooped in and essentially gave Stallworth a one year deal. No matter what Stallworth does this season, he's likely just insurance for Chad Jackson. Jackson didn't develop as quickly as the Patriots coaching staff would have liked, plus he suffered a knee injury towards the end of the season. Jackson still remains a very talented WR of the future for this franchise. Stallworth will immediately become their deep threat, but with all the WRs on the Patriots roster now (Stallworth, Welker, Jackson, Gaffney, Caldwell), it'd be a mistake to think Stallworth will rack up big numbers in New England's offense. He'll likely be overvalued next season and is probably best fit as a WR3.
Philadelphia Fallout - Reggie Brown becomes the unquestioned #1 WR for the Eagles and could provide excellent value in drafts next season. He'll have the opportunity to post WR2 numbers as someone probably drafted in the WR3 range.
Atlanta Signs Joe Horn
This was a good signing for a Falcons team void of a reliable WR. Horn will provide consistent hands, which is something Vick hasn't had at the WR position during his career. Horn will also provide young WRs Michael Jenkins and Roddy White with a mentor for how to play the position at the NFL level and could help their development. In terms of his fantasy value, I have a feeling he'll be overvalued due to the assumption he'll be the unquestioned #1 WR on this offense, and also due to name recognition. The fact is that he's a 35 year old WR who is coming off of 2 seasons marred by leg injuries. He isn't the deep threat he once was, and to draft him as anything more than a WR3 would be a mistake. He'll have a chance to post a 1000 yard/6 TD season if he stays healthy, but odds of him surpassing that are weak.
New Orleans Fallout - Marques Colston is now the unquestioned #1 WR for New Orleans, and he proved last year when Horn was out that he had no problem taking on #1 corners. He's now entrenched as a lower-end WR1 and should be drafted in the top 12 WRs next year. The fact he'll know the offense and the NFL better next year is a scary proposition for opponents give the immense success he had as a rookie.
St. Louis Signs Randy McMichael
Well, apparently Scott Linehan did not like what he saw in his 2 rookie TEs (Joe Klopfenstein, Dominique Byrd) last season. Shortly after Miami cut McMichael, Linehan quickly moved to sign his old Miami TE. Linehan knows how to use him, so McMichael should maintain the same fantasy value as he used to have on Miami, a lower option as a TE1. This should also help Bulger's fantasy value as he'll have another talented option to throw the ball to. McMichael is still young, so this squashes the chance that Klopfenstein would have had to emerge this season and also severely dulls his long term value in dynasty leagues.
Tuesday, March 6, 2007
Thomas Jones Traded To The New York Jets
Our 2nd big trade of the NFL offseason as my Chicago Bears traded RB Thomas Jones to the New York Jets.
When I first heard about the compensation they received, which was trading Thomas Jones and their 2nd round pick (63rd overall) for the New York Jets 2nd round pick (37th overall), I was disappointed. I thought they could have done better by getting a stand alone draft choice instead of using Jones to move up.
However, upon second review of the deal, I'm pleased with the situation. Veteran RBs are hard to trade because they require both a draft choice in return along with a new contract. Thomas Jones will be 29 years old when the 2007 season starts, and while he doesn't have as much mileage on his legs as most 29 year old featured RBs, he still is getting to the age where RBs start to see a decline in their production. Instead of receiving a stand alone 3rd round pick, which was reportedly an option, they wanted to move up in the 2nd round instead. The Bears now possess the 31st and 37th overall picks, putting them in an advantageous position. They can either nab two potential starters with these picks, or they can use them to move up in the first round if someone falls that they covet. The Jets acquire a solid starting RB and only move down in the 2nd round. I think this trade is beneficial to both sides.
Fantasy Impact: Thomas Jones remains the same as he was a Bear the last several seasons, a solid RB2 selection. He won't see a lot more carries in New York, but without Benson there, he should remain the primary option on 1st and 2nd downs throughout the game. Jones excels at both catching the ball and blocking, but the Jets remain high on 2nd year man Leon Washington, and Washington will probably assume some of the role on 3rd downs that Jones had in Chicago. Washington remains intriguing enough to draft as a end-of-the-roster RB, but I don't know if he'd see the majority of the carries if Jones got hurt, dulling his upside.
Cedric Benson becomes a rock solid RB2. He won't be a factor in the passing game as he doesn't catch the ball and block as well as he should, so he'll never be an elite RB1, but he'll handle most of the carries and score most of the TDs. Some may be scared by his "injury history", but he was a workhorse through both high school and college at elite programs, and his two injuries in the pros have been freak knee injuries. He loves to run over people and is quicker to the outside than most expected him to be. Adrian Peterson will assume the backup RB position on the Bears and will handle 3rd down duties. He's a nice RB4, or a handcuff for Benson owners. He'd be productive if Benson ever went down.
When I first heard about the compensation they received, which was trading Thomas Jones and their 2nd round pick (63rd overall) for the New York Jets 2nd round pick (37th overall), I was disappointed. I thought they could have done better by getting a stand alone draft choice instead of using Jones to move up.
However, upon second review of the deal, I'm pleased with the situation. Veteran RBs are hard to trade because they require both a draft choice in return along with a new contract. Thomas Jones will be 29 years old when the 2007 season starts, and while he doesn't have as much mileage on his legs as most 29 year old featured RBs, he still is getting to the age where RBs start to see a decline in their production. Instead of receiving a stand alone 3rd round pick, which was reportedly an option, they wanted to move up in the 2nd round instead. The Bears now possess the 31st and 37th overall picks, putting them in an advantageous position. They can either nab two potential starters with these picks, or they can use them to move up in the first round if someone falls that they covet. The Jets acquire a solid starting RB and only move down in the 2nd round. I think this trade is beneficial to both sides.
Fantasy Impact: Thomas Jones remains the same as he was a Bear the last several seasons, a solid RB2 selection. He won't see a lot more carries in New York, but without Benson there, he should remain the primary option on 1st and 2nd downs throughout the game. Jones excels at both catching the ball and blocking, but the Jets remain high on 2nd year man Leon Washington, and Washington will probably assume some of the role on 3rd downs that Jones had in Chicago. Washington remains intriguing enough to draft as a end-of-the-roster RB, but I don't know if he'd see the majority of the carries if Jones got hurt, dulling his upside.
Cedric Benson becomes a rock solid RB2. He won't be a factor in the passing game as he doesn't catch the ball and block as well as he should, so he'll never be an elite RB1, but he'll handle most of the carries and score most of the TDs. Some may be scared by his "injury history", but he was a workhorse through both high school and college at elite programs, and his two injuries in the pros have been freak knee injuries. He loves to run over people and is quicker to the outside than most expected him to be. Adrian Peterson will assume the backup RB position on the Bears and will handle 3rd down duties. He's a nice RB4, or a handcuff for Benson owners. He'd be productive if Benson ever went down.
Monday, March 5, 2007
Free Agency In Full Force
I tried to avoid posting here until there was some actual confirmed deals in NFL's free agency market. For those of us monitoring the NFL news to see who's going to sign where, there's a constant inundation of rumored visits, signings, and unfortunately erroneous reports of both. So, here's a lowdown of the fantasy impact so far:
Tampa Bay Signs Jeff Garcia
Jeff Garcia signed a deal to be Chris Simms' competition in Tampa Bay. Both QBs boast similar contracts, so economics will not be a deciding factor in this QB competition. Both are expected to start camp with a 50/50 chance. Simms has an edge by knowing the offense a bit better, but Garcia is a proven veteran who fits well into Gruden's offensive system. Whoever wins will be worth looking at as a QB2 in to draft later on as Gruden has a history of producing good stats from his quarterbacks. Galloway will again be the deep threat, and I'm sure Tampa is praying that Calvin Johnson will fall to them in the draft, although that's becoming increasingly unlikely as neither Russell nor Quinn have impressed. Michael Clayton better rekindly his play from his rookie year for the passing game to click, and they'd be better of utilizing Alex Smith more down the field.
Philly Fallout - McNabb is the unquestioned starter, and they signed AJ Feeley to a multi-year contract, ensuring Feeley is now the backup of the present and the future. I don't need to tell you that if McNabb isn't ready that Feeley won't produce the same numbers, but he'd be someone to keep an eye on and he's always been pretty good when Philly has needed him, and week 17 from last year is a good example of that.
Tampa Bay Trades For Jake Plummer
The Plummer deal was unofficially announced prior to the Garcia signing, and I was a bit baffled at first that Plummer wasn't interested in playing in Gruden's offense, but then again he came from Denver where he lost his job to youngster Jay Cutler. This possibility exists again with Chris Simms in Tampa, so I believe he's using his retirement threats to force another trade, possibly to Houston to play for his old offensive/QB coach Gary Kubiak. He obviously has no fantasy value on Tampa Bay, but at 31 I expect he's not done yet and something more will come of this story. Houston makes too much sense right now.
Denver Fallout - Jay Cutler will be a very good QB in Denver for years, so Denver is in the market to find a reliable backup. With Garcia and Brad Johnson signed elsewhere, perhaps they'd take a look at David Carr if Houston releases him.
Miami Releases Joey Harrington
This wouldn't normally be news, but given the Dolphins have a new coaching staff in place, and Culpepper's knee and decision making remain a question mark, this is actually noteworthy. Harrington was having a pretty solid year last year, but then collapsed at the end and has proven time and time again that he cannot be a starter in the NFL. Cleo Lemon, who impressed the previous coaching staff at the end of last season, is now in a full fledged QB battle with Culpepper to be the starting Miami QB. Cam Cameron has a successful past with offenses, making both Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers borderline QB1's when they started for SD. Also, they did this with a dominant pass catching RB and TE, but little in the way of receiving talent. With Chambers and Booker, Cameron possesses the most talented WR duo he's worked with and this could pay dividends to the starting Miami QB. Whoever wins this battle might prove to be an interesting QB2 pick for next year.
Denver Signs Travis Henry
Travis Henry dynasty/keeper league owners just hit the jackpot. Henry will immediately be the featured RB for Denver next season. Henry is one of the more underrated RBs in the NFL, and he should be a great fit with his vision and yards after contact skills. People often forget that he was putting together a solid career in Buffalo, even playing through a partially fractured leg bone, before starting off slow in 2004 when McGahee took the job. 2005 was a lost season, but he performed very well last season in Tennessee gaining 1211 yards and rushing for 7 TDs. He's 28 years old and had 2 very light workload seasons, so he should have a good couple of years in Denver. Denver really scored big here getting a solid RB that fit their system for a good price.
Tennessee Fallout - LenDale White is currently atop the depth chart, and given his struggles last year, you can be sure Tennessee is in the market for competition. Chris Brown probably won't return, but Jamal Lewis and Corey Dillon are options, as is the NFL draft. A veteran is the more likely scenario.
Houston Signs Ahman Green
This was a buzzkill for those of us expecting Houston to open up another enticing fantasy option at the RB position. Green got paid like he's expected to be the unquestioned starter. Mike Sherman, who coached some of Green's best years in Green Bay, is the offensive coordinator for Houston, so that bodes well as he'll know how to tailor the running game towards Green's strengths. However, Green is 30 years old and has battled several leg injuries over the past few seasons, and he wore down considerably in the 2nd half of last season. Chances of him remaining productive all year long are slim, and he'll come recommended as no more than a last ditch RB2, but better suited as a RB3 and solid trade bait if he starts the season strong.
Green Bay Fallout - Vernand Morency is currently atop the depth chart, and this is the same situation as Tennessee. Morency is an explosive back, but not the type of runner Green Bay will want to win the job uncontested. They'll continue to shop around and also eye the NFL draft. Marshawn Lynch from California is the popular mocked pick to Green Bay in the 1st round, but he ran a disappointing 40 time at the Combine and his stock has dropped some. I'm sure they'll have their eye on veterans as well.
Oakland Keeps Lamont Jordan
He had a large roster bonus due to him this summer, and as that time approached, rumors started to swirl that he'd be released. The fact of the matter is that Oakland is completely void of RB talent behind Jordan, they needed him to avoid creating another large hole on their roster. He would have immediately become the best RB on the market, and I think Oakland understood this. After two seasons that ended with injuries, Oakland was able to get him to decrease his roster bonus and will have him at least compete for the job next year with a youngster, if not start and hope he stays healthy. He's a risky RB2 pick, but could find new life with the different offensive system they have in place.
Miami Signs David Martin/Releases Randy McMichael
This might shock some, but it's long been known that McMichael relies too much on his talent. He's always been a fairly reliable lower TE1 option, but he drops way too many passes and hasn't worked enough on his blocking technique. Cameron has always designed his passing game in SD around Gates, and he apparently did not feel McMichael was worth what he was being paid given his deficiencies in his all-around game. David Martin becomes an immediate sleeper at the TE position. Martin has never stayed healthy, but has flashed impressive skills when he plays, and will be playing in a TE-friendly passing game.
Tampa Bay Signs Jeff Garcia
Jeff Garcia signed a deal to be Chris Simms' competition in Tampa Bay. Both QBs boast similar contracts, so economics will not be a deciding factor in this QB competition. Both are expected to start camp with a 50/50 chance. Simms has an edge by knowing the offense a bit better, but Garcia is a proven veteran who fits well into Gruden's offensive system. Whoever wins will be worth looking at as a QB2 in to draft later on as Gruden has a history of producing good stats from his quarterbacks. Galloway will again be the deep threat, and I'm sure Tampa is praying that Calvin Johnson will fall to them in the draft, although that's becoming increasingly unlikely as neither Russell nor Quinn have impressed. Michael Clayton better rekindly his play from his rookie year for the passing game to click, and they'd be better of utilizing Alex Smith more down the field.
Philly Fallout - McNabb is the unquestioned starter, and they signed AJ Feeley to a multi-year contract, ensuring Feeley is now the backup of the present and the future. I don't need to tell you that if McNabb isn't ready that Feeley won't produce the same numbers, but he'd be someone to keep an eye on and he's always been pretty good when Philly has needed him, and week 17 from last year is a good example of that.
Tampa Bay Trades For Jake Plummer
The Plummer deal was unofficially announced prior to the Garcia signing, and I was a bit baffled at first that Plummer wasn't interested in playing in Gruden's offense, but then again he came from Denver where he lost his job to youngster Jay Cutler. This possibility exists again with Chris Simms in Tampa, so I believe he's using his retirement threats to force another trade, possibly to Houston to play for his old offensive/QB coach Gary Kubiak. He obviously has no fantasy value on Tampa Bay, but at 31 I expect he's not done yet and something more will come of this story. Houston makes too much sense right now.
Denver Fallout - Jay Cutler will be a very good QB in Denver for years, so Denver is in the market to find a reliable backup. With Garcia and Brad Johnson signed elsewhere, perhaps they'd take a look at David Carr if Houston releases him.
Miami Releases Joey Harrington
This wouldn't normally be news, but given the Dolphins have a new coaching staff in place, and Culpepper's knee and decision making remain a question mark, this is actually noteworthy. Harrington was having a pretty solid year last year, but then collapsed at the end and has proven time and time again that he cannot be a starter in the NFL. Cleo Lemon, who impressed the previous coaching staff at the end of last season, is now in a full fledged QB battle with Culpepper to be the starting Miami QB. Cam Cameron has a successful past with offenses, making both Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers borderline QB1's when they started for SD. Also, they did this with a dominant pass catching RB and TE, but little in the way of receiving talent. With Chambers and Booker, Cameron possesses the most talented WR duo he's worked with and this could pay dividends to the starting Miami QB. Whoever wins this battle might prove to be an interesting QB2 pick for next year.
Denver Signs Travis Henry
Travis Henry dynasty/keeper league owners just hit the jackpot. Henry will immediately be the featured RB for Denver next season. Henry is one of the more underrated RBs in the NFL, and he should be a great fit with his vision and yards after contact skills. People often forget that he was putting together a solid career in Buffalo, even playing through a partially fractured leg bone, before starting off slow in 2004 when McGahee took the job. 2005 was a lost season, but he performed very well last season in Tennessee gaining 1211 yards and rushing for 7 TDs. He's 28 years old and had 2 very light workload seasons, so he should have a good couple of years in Denver. Denver really scored big here getting a solid RB that fit their system for a good price.
Tennessee Fallout - LenDale White is currently atop the depth chart, and given his struggles last year, you can be sure Tennessee is in the market for competition. Chris Brown probably won't return, but Jamal Lewis and Corey Dillon are options, as is the NFL draft. A veteran is the more likely scenario.
Houston Signs Ahman Green
This was a buzzkill for those of us expecting Houston to open up another enticing fantasy option at the RB position. Green got paid like he's expected to be the unquestioned starter. Mike Sherman, who coached some of Green's best years in Green Bay, is the offensive coordinator for Houston, so that bodes well as he'll know how to tailor the running game towards Green's strengths. However, Green is 30 years old and has battled several leg injuries over the past few seasons, and he wore down considerably in the 2nd half of last season. Chances of him remaining productive all year long are slim, and he'll come recommended as no more than a last ditch RB2, but better suited as a RB3 and solid trade bait if he starts the season strong.
Green Bay Fallout - Vernand Morency is currently atop the depth chart, and this is the same situation as Tennessee. Morency is an explosive back, but not the type of runner Green Bay will want to win the job uncontested. They'll continue to shop around and also eye the NFL draft. Marshawn Lynch from California is the popular mocked pick to Green Bay in the 1st round, but he ran a disappointing 40 time at the Combine and his stock has dropped some. I'm sure they'll have their eye on veterans as well.
Oakland Keeps Lamont Jordan
He had a large roster bonus due to him this summer, and as that time approached, rumors started to swirl that he'd be released. The fact of the matter is that Oakland is completely void of RB talent behind Jordan, they needed him to avoid creating another large hole on their roster. He would have immediately become the best RB on the market, and I think Oakland understood this. After two seasons that ended with injuries, Oakland was able to get him to decrease his roster bonus and will have him at least compete for the job next year with a youngster, if not start and hope he stays healthy. He's a risky RB2 pick, but could find new life with the different offensive system they have in place.
Miami Signs David Martin/Releases Randy McMichael
This might shock some, but it's long been known that McMichael relies too much on his talent. He's always been a fairly reliable lower TE1 option, but he drops way too many passes and hasn't worked enough on his blocking technique. Cameron has always designed his passing game in SD around Gates, and he apparently did not feel McMichael was worth what he was being paid given his deficiencies in his all-around game. David Martin becomes an immediate sleeper at the TE position. Martin has never stayed healthy, but has flashed impressive skills when he plays, and will be playing in a TE-friendly passing game.
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