I promise to get this article written before Tuesday night as most leagues run waivers that night. :) As always, I'm speaking from the premise of a 12 team league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, and 1 TE.
QB:
Kyle Orton / Trent Edwards - These guys should have been drafted, but they didn't post huge numbers in week 1. These guys have the weapons around them to contend for QB1 status should things break right. They should be owned and on your bench.
Byron Leftwich - I question the weapons around him, especially since Antonio Bryant isn't 100%. That said, he looked good in the 1st week, so if you don't have anything that resembles a QB2 on your roster, go ahead and grab him. He's always been talented, but he's been held back by his lack of mobility and a slow release. He isn't going to fix that, but he's a starting QB in the NFL assuming he has a solid line in front of him, which Tampa Bay has.
Mark Sanchez - He has a decent #1 target in Jerricho Cotchery and a good TE in Dustin Keller. He will be protected by his running game and defense, so he's not going to throw a lot either. That all being said, he's a decent QB2. Think Flacco of last season, especially since the coaching staff and philosophy is very much the same as Baltimore. I think he has more poise thank Flacco, however, more along the line of Matt Ryan thanks to the quality competition he faced last season in the college ranks.
Matt Leinart - Sleeper. Kurt Warner looks bad, and some are predicting that Leinart will take over at some point this season. His weapons speak for themselves, and he's a great stash if you have a roster spot you're not doing much with. He could flirt with QB1 value should he take over at some point. Warner owners are strongly encouraged to handcuff him, especially with the price paid in drafts to get Warner.
RB:
Michael Bush - He should have been drafted, but in case he's still out there, Monday night proved why. He's my RB5 in all leagues. He's a big, powerful back who has some wiggle and quickness, plus he was excellent catching passes in college. He'll sit behind McFadden in per week touches, but he's still going to get 10+ carries, and he's favored at the goal line. He would be a great RB2 should anything happen to McFadden.
Cadillac Williams - He also should have been picked up prior to week 1 after his big preseason week 4 performance and perch atop the final week 1 depth chart, but he backed it up with a big week 1 despite only 12 carries. He's a good stash, but don't go throwing him into your yet lineup when he's only getting 10-12 carries, despite his week 1 numbers.
Mike Bell - He should have been picked up prior to week 1, especially by Pierre Thomas owners. That being said, he's available in one of my leagues (I didn't like him better than Michael Bush, my "worst" RB), so he's probably still out there in some others. If you have 4-5 RBs on your team that have a defined role, and you'd have to drop one of them to get him, pass. Otherwise, he's definitely the best waiver option this week. He might start again in week 2, and rumor has him forcing himself into a role even when Pierre Thomas gets healthy.
Kevin Faulk - He's worth a stash on the end of your bench as a RB4/5, but his upside is limited. He's going to see plenty of time on the field, catch passes, and run a few draws...but he just doesn't get the ball enough to have RB2 upside. That being said, depth is important, and he has a defined role.
Ladell Betts - Portis owners with a spot on their bench would be advised to grab Betts.
WR:
Louis Murphy - He's the best WR and the best deep threat Oakland has going for them. Once Chaz Schillens returns, there's no question in my mind that he'll start opposite Schilens and DHB will move to the 3rd WR role. He's probably better than a number of WR5s currently on a roster, so grab him. he has some upside as a big play WR even though he's limited by Russell's continued accuracy problems.
Laurent Robinson - He proved it was no fluke that he won the job by posting a solid week 1 despite poor QB play. His upside is dimmed by Bulger's steep decline, but he has more of the look of a top WR than Donnie Avery does thanks to his size/speed combination. Good WR5 to toss on your bench with upside.
Nate Burleson - Burleson has apparently recovered from last season's torn ACL by posting a great week 1. Given TJ Housh's inability to make plays down the field, Burleson could actually emerge as the guy to own in Seattle. All bets are off if Hasselbeck has more issues with his back, but it's worth riding the hot streak in the mean time.
Brandon Stokley - His numbers obviously rank him among the best WRs on the waiver wire, but if you didn't know, he caught a ridiculously fluky 87 yard TD off of a tipped pass. Don't add him.
Mark Clayton - He's always had the talent, and he's always had the injuries that have held him back. I don't like him as much as Murphy, but much like Murphy, he's probably better than many WR5s currently owned. Clayton will start as long as he's healthy.
Chansi Stuckey - He had a solid first game, and he got open for a TD on a blown coverage. He's not a bad WR, but he's 3rd on the target list behind Cotchery and Keller for a run-first team, so I'd leave him on the waiver wire.
Mario Manningham - With Hakeem Nicks set to miss 2-3 weeks with a foot sprain, there will be more targets to go around for WRs playing opposite Steve Smith. Manningham will be the biggest beneficiary here, and he could nail down a starting job for a while with a solid performance. He's not a bad speculator add.
Devery Henderson/Robert Meachem - The Saints will mix-and-match these 2 deep threats while Colston, Moore, and Shockey dominate the targets. They will be very high risk/reward WRs each and every week due to how the Saints use them, but they can be stashed and used to catch lightning in a bottle if you don't have other more solid options.
Michael Clayton - Remember him? 1193/7 his rookie year, and about that cumulatively over the last 4 years. It's hard to say what happened, but I do know he's had knee problems since there. The Bucs badly need someone to step up at WR while Bryant deals with his own knee issues, so he can be stashed.
Mark Bradley - The Chiefs also need a WR to step up opposite Dwayne Bowe, and Bradley certainly has the talent. Much like Mark Clayton, injuries have constantly held him back. He's also worth stashing as a WR5 to see how it shakes out.
Mike Sims-Walker - Deep sleeper here. He did nothing in week 1, but the Jaguars badly need someone to step up opposite Torry Holt and provide big play potential. Sims-Walker has the talent, but just like Clayton and Bradley, injuries have held him back. When the Jaguars eventually tire of Troy Williamson, Sims-Walker will step up and produce while he's healthy. Total speculatory stash.
TE:
Zach Miller - It boggles me that he's available in one of my leagues. This guy should be starting for a team in every 12+ team league, and arguably in 10 team leagues as well. I know the Raiders passing attack sucks, but he produced last year and will again this year. He's a TE1.
Todd Heap - Rebound candidate? He's likely available in all leagues, but he looked as good last Sunday as he's looked since 2006. Odds are he'll get hurt again, but he's worth owning until then. He could flirt with TE1 value if he can avoid all the nagging injuries.
Ben Watson - We've seen this before with his TD explosions, but he did catch 6 passes in all. He's never lacked the talent, but he has lacked the instincts and hands. The Patriots need someone other than Moss and Welker to threaten defenses, and Watson is most certainly a seam-buster. Grab him as a TE2.
Robert Royal - 60 yards and a TD from a TE certainly warrants consideration, and he's produced in a limited sense of the word in Buffalo before. I wouldn't waste a roster spot on him yet, but keep an eye to see if he repeats again in week 2.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Monday, September 14, 2009
Week 1 Thoughts
Since the first week is complete, I'm going to go through each team with some week 1 analysis. I feel this is particularly important as fantasy owners tend to want to panic too early each year, so I'd like to address what I feel is actually worth worrying about. I have sorted the teams so it's easier to find who you're looking for.
Arizona Cardinals - Warner looked old, just like he did in the preseason. This simply isn't going to be the same offense this season, and it's a concern for Warner/Fitz/Boldin owners. Boldin didn't look 100% yet, and he was on a snap count. Hightower was still dancing too much, and Beanie Wells ran with no nonsense. Wells will eventually dominate carries here if he can stay healthy, so he's a high upside RB3. The Cardinals will have to run more this year.
Atlanta Falcons - Ryan was a bit inaccurate down the field, missing on some big plays where receivers got open. I'll attribute that to rust as his final numbers still were solid. Michael Turner was bottled up by a good run D, and this is a bit concerning as Turner will be facing much better run defenses this year than last. Plus, Tony Gonzalez gives them another option at the goal line. I still stand firm that Turner will not live up to his top 3 draft billing this year, but will definitely put up some big games mixed in. It's the consistency that will be a problem thanks to a lack of receiving ability.
Baltimore Ravens - Flacco was given the green light and set a career high in both attempts and yardage while tossing 3 TDs. Now this is the Chiefs defense we're talking about here, so we can't get too excited, especially with his mundane weapons. However, Flacco is looking like a stronger QB2 than expected at the moment. Ray Rice looked great, but McGahee was exclusive at the goal line. I'd like to see how Rice does against a tough defense first, but it's clear that he'll get his carries and receptions this year. Mark Clayton and Todd Heap are healthy, which helps Flacco quite a bit, but with as injury prone as those two are, it's hard to say for how long.
Buffalo Bills - Trent Edwards did a good job with his play calling, keeping the Patriots off balance for a lot of the game, but he again was completely reliant on underneath passing despite having 2 excellent deep threats. I did hear during the game that the Patriots were often doubling both WRs, which makes sense given the lack of other receiving options they possess. Both Owens and Evans were undertargeted and not very effective. Fred Jackson, however, looked very impressive and will be forcing a timeshare with Marshawn Lynch if he keeps this up. He's a complete RB.
Carolina Panthers - What a disaster. Delhomme is going to kill Steve Smith at this rate. I don't want to overreact to one game, but he looked just as bad as he did in the playoff game against Arizona last season, and that can't be good for his confidence. If Delhomme goes in the tank, newly signed AJ Feeley will start. Furthermore, Stewart completely cut into DeAngelo's carries with a 14/11 split in favor of DA. Luckily Williams made up for some of it in the air (4/42), but Stewart actually replaced him on the goal line a few times. This has the potential to turn into a mess, and it's something that Williams owners have to honestly be concerned about. The fact they nursed Stewart's injury for so long totally threw me off, but a healthy Stewart was going to play more.
Chicago Bears - I swear Grossman underwent plastic surgery and had us all fooled out there, looks-wise at least. The offense looked pretty brutal, but Cutler did have a couple nice deep throws to Knox who stepped out of bounds, and to Hester for a TD. Olsen was doubled relentlessly, so they'll need to find a way to fix that. There's going to be some growing pains here, but I still think Cutler will manage borderline QB1 numbers when all is said and done. He's more of a match-up play this season though. Forte was completely bottled up and will need the passing game to come around to give him some room. He wasn't quite as explosive, which is a concern. With the Steelers up next, it doesn't get any easier.
Cincinnati Bengals - Palmer looked good, and both of his INTs were not really his fault. One came on a ball that bounced high up in the air on an attempted catch, and the other came as a last second heave. Coles dropped a ton of passes, and he could arguably be the 4th best WR on this team behind Ochocinco (very solid first game), Chris Henry, and Andre Caldwell. Benson also looked solid with workman-like numbers and a TD. Feel confident with Palmer and Ochocinco moving forward, but I'd probably shy away from Coles until he bounces back. Since he's a veteran, he'll have a chance.
Cleveland Browns - Ugh. Quinn looked bad, and it killed Edwards. Lewis looked surprisingly spry, so he's not giving up his job without a fight. James Davis did nothing, but he did suffer through an auto accident earlier in the weekend, so we'll give him a week 1 pass. This passing game worries me.
Dallas Cowboys - Who needs TO? Romo looked great, and Roy Williams showed he still has explosion the slant he busted for a 66 yard TD. On top of this, Barber dominated the backfield (14-6) while back in his closer role. If the passing attack can keep this up, Barber will be a borderline RB1 again, just like he was in 2006/2007. He'll score 10+ times. Crayton had a fluky game aided by an uncharacteristic 80 yard TD. Don't rush to throw him in your lineup.
Denver Broncos - Orton was shaky again, but this was to be expected as he works out the kinks in the new offense. I know I sound like an Orton apologist, but I believe in the players he has around him. Marshall was back to dropping passes again, and he didn't target Royal enough. Stay with the Broncos passing game; it'll come around. Their backfield looks like a nightmare right now, and Moreno can't be started.
Detroit Lions - That went about as well as could be expected. Stafford wasn't accurate and threw 3 INTs, but he was clearly willing to throw the ball down the field, which is an extension from the preseason. That's great news for CJ who produced 90 yards on only 3 catches. He should have had a TD, but the refs blew the call on the field, and then blew the challenge. Ridiculous. Kevin Smith didn't generate much on the ground, but he scored and got 22 touches thanks to 7 catches. He might threaten RB1 value in PPR leagues this year.
Green Bay Packers - Rodgers had trouble, but the Bears defensive pressure was dominant and forced some bad throws when WRs were open. No worries...Rodgers won't be facing this sort of pass rush each week. He salvaged his day with a game winning bomb to Jennings with just over a minute left, which was the opposite of last year when he posted huge numbers and often came up short late in games. Ryan Grant had a good burst and looked like a solid RB2 on the field. I think I might have been wrong about him this year, assuming he can stay healthy.
Houston Texans - Disaster. Also, patience. They faced a ferocious Jets defense who attacked them all game long with a very aggressive pass rush. There is way too much talent on the Houston offense to be worried. Darrell Revis is evolving into one of the elite shutdown corners in the NFL, and he held AJ in check.
Indianapolis Colts - It wasn't pretty, but they got it done. Manning looked good outside of an awful forced throw to Wayne on a fade in the endzone. Wayne was absolutely dominant. Gonzalez's injury will help Dallas Clark's fantasy value. The running game looked bad, especially Addai, and Brown actually got most of the 4th quarter work. The committee is in full effect, but if Addai can't make some plays, he could start losing even more touches.
Jacksonville Jaguars - MJD was featured, and was really the only offense. Garrard did the best he could to make some plays, but his receivers didn't help him out at all. Holt struggled to separate, and there's nothing going on opposite him. They badly need the talented Mike Sims-Walker to cash in on his talent and start producing.
Kansas City Chiefs - Nobody expected 24 points against Baltimore, but a blocked punt TD and a long INT return inside the 10 certainly helped change that. Croyle did a reasonable job filling in for Cassel, but only lead one good TD drive all game. LJ was completely ineffective. Bowe scored to save his owners on his first catch in the 3rd quarter, and he didn't catch another pass until hauling in a couple in the 4th quarter. He is going to be doubled relentlessly, so we'll have to keep an eye on how he handles that. Mark Bradley's good game was definitely a positive moving forward. He certainly has the talent to help Bowe out opposite him.
Miami Dolphins - Despite a lot of outlets talking about Ricky Williams looking slow in the preseason, he looked plenty quick, and the 13/9 touch ratio between Ronnie and Ricky is a true concern moving forward. This looked exactly like last year, and when Ricky replaced Ronnie at the 9 and caught a TD pass, it felt like a kick to the crotch. Miami clearly needs to establish the run next game as they looked lost on offense. Ronnie Brown is still this team's best offensive weapon. I'm not overly worried as Ronnie is probably everyone's RB2, and he'll be able to produce at that level, but his RB1 upside will be killed if they continue to use the same split as last year.
Minnesota Vikings - Favre spent most of the game handing off to Peterson, who mauled in the 2nd half and posted a monster game. As Favre gets up to speed, expect better things from Bernard Berrian. Percy Harvin was used all over and got 5 touches, so also expect him to become more involved as well. Sydney Rice looks like a red zone weapon with his size. He's going to score some TDs this year.
New England Patriots - Brady certainly didn't start as hot as he showed in the preseason, but he certainly finished that way. He's definitely back, using Welker underneath and Moss down the field exactly as you'd expect. Watson also turned in a huge game, and he's worth owning as a TE2. They do need a 3rd receiving option to continue to leave things open for Moss and Welker. True to form they used a full out committee, and Taylor even scored on a goal line carry. Maroney and Taylor are worth RB5 roster stashes, and Faulk is definitely worth owning in PPR.
New Orleans Saints - That went according to plan. Everyone looked great, although I'm sure Colston owners were fuming a bit...thankfully he scored once. Mike Bell looked terrific, and this is pretty much worst case scenario for Pierre Thomas owners. Bell might have just forced his way into a 3 man committee, but let's not overreact yet until Thomas returns. Thomas owners need to own Bell, obviously.
New York Giants - Eli actually looked good...he spread the ball around to all his receivers. Unfortunately, Nicks sustained a sprained foot and will be lost for a few weeks. Jacobs struggled, but the Skins' defense projected to be tougher this year. No worries. Bradshaw looked great with his touches and will be a RB3 this season...he has clearly assumed Derrick Ward's role from last year.
New York Jets - Mark Sanchez looked great, spreading the ball around to his receivers well and remaining calm. Thomas Jones looked explosive again, so Shonn Greene is an afterthought for now, but I don't believe he'll last the season. Leon Washington, as promised, was given 15 carries and 4 catches as well. Washington looks like a good RB3 this season as he's clearly a bigger part of the offense. Cotchery and Keller both look like good options moving forward, but expect ups and downs as you normally would with a rookie QB. It won't always look this good.
Oakland Raiders - Russell looked horribly inaccurate yet again for most of the game, which is his biggest downfall right now. DHB also continued his dropped passes.Louis Murphy, on the other hand, looked pretty good and will probably start opposite Chaz Schilens when he returns. Zach Miller dominated the middle of the field and put up TE1 numbers. He's a favorite of Russell's, and there's no reason he shouldn't be owned. The rushing attack looked dominant in the 1st half, but San Diego caught on and started slowing it down in the 2nd half. The Raiders used a full committee of McFadden and Bush, and both looked very good, with Bush getting the call at the goal line. Expect this to be their strategy this year.
Philadelphia Eagles - Thanks to the defense doing the heavy lifting, McNabb and Westbrook weren't asked to do much, and luckily both scored at least once to keep the owners happy. McNabb's rib injury needs to be monitored this week, and the fact they signed Jeff Garcia is probably indicative that he won't play. They've lost a ton of confidence in Kevin Kolb. Westbrook looked great, helping ease concerns about his offseason surgeries. I'm not confident he'll last (who is?), but he's the man while healthy. McCoy looked good filling in, but most of his carries came with the game out of hand. The receivers will bounce back, but they need to be downgraded if McNabb misses time.
San Diego Chargers - Phillip Rivers started slow, but turned it on the 4th quarter when it was time to step up. He finished with respectable numbers. Vincent Jackson posted a solid game despite being blanketed by Nnamdi Asomugha all game, and Gates dominated the middle of the field while looking healthy again...he missed a TD by inches. Sorry LT owners, your high pick is in a full out committee. He also sprained an ankle in the 1st quarter and was constantly coming out of the game after a rush. Sproles looked explosive while LT did not, and Sproles is the official 3rd down RB.
San Francisco 49ers - Gore was the clear focal point of the offense, and while he certainly didn't impress with his YPC, he scored twice and caught some passes to turn in a good fantasy day. Josh Morgan was absent the entire 2nd half after posting a solid 1st half. I would assume an injury would have been announced, so my guess was he did something wrong and Singletary isn't making a spectacle out of it like he erroneously did with Vernon Davis last year. Speaking of Davis, he looked solid and they tried to get him the ball. Make sure he's owned as a TE2.
Seattle Seahawks - Wow, I was totally surprised by this. Now they were playing the Rams, so like with the Ravens, expectations have to be kept in check, but Hasselbeck did a great job spreading the ball around. He's going to be effective while healthy. Housh caught 6 passes, but had a long of 9. I read he did absolutely nothing after the catch, so he's going to have a very hard time fulfilling fantasy expectations if that continues. Carlson looked good, but he's going to have to block more than he did this game against better defensive fronts. I'm not sold on him as a TE1 despite the big game. Julius Jones dominated carries until the game got out of hand, so he's the clear starter here, and a low end RB2/solid RB3 much like Cedric Benson. He's only a match up play.
St. Louis Rams - Steve Spagnolo's season couldn't have started off any worse. Marc Bulger reportedly looks shell shocked out there, and people are calling for him to be benched immediately. Steven Jackson started hot, but the game got way out of hand. The most disappointing part of this was Jackson's lack of involvement in the passing game, but don't worry, I guarantee you they'll fix that. Laurent Robinson looked very good and along with Donnie Avery, the Rams actually have a good duo at WR. Now if only they had a QB...
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Leftwich, per usual, took some hits but moved the offense. Cadillac most certainly is back, but he's evenly splitting with Derrick Ward. Earnest Graham owners can forget about him for the time being. Cadillac will be a popular add this week, but he's not worth starting if he's only seeing 10-15 carries, especially since neither Caddy nor Ward are the official goal line back. Both can succeed in that role as evidenced by their 1 yard TDs. Caddy has a better chance of staying healthy in this timeshare situation. Antonio Bryant's knee acted up again, and this is a serious concern. I'd keep him benched until he proves he's healthy. Winslow looked solid.
Washington Redskins - The offense looked about as expected...mediocre. Cambell was OK, Portis did nothing outside of his 34 yard first run, Cooley turned in a fine day, and Randle-El surprised people (don't go picking him up). Blah all around. I wouldn't start anyone but Cooley here.
Arizona Cardinals - Warner looked old, just like he did in the preseason. This simply isn't going to be the same offense this season, and it's a concern for Warner/Fitz/Boldin owners. Boldin didn't look 100% yet, and he was on a snap count. Hightower was still dancing too much, and Beanie Wells ran with no nonsense. Wells will eventually dominate carries here if he can stay healthy, so he's a high upside RB3. The Cardinals will have to run more this year.
Atlanta Falcons - Ryan was a bit inaccurate down the field, missing on some big plays where receivers got open. I'll attribute that to rust as his final numbers still were solid. Michael Turner was bottled up by a good run D, and this is a bit concerning as Turner will be facing much better run defenses this year than last. Plus, Tony Gonzalez gives them another option at the goal line. I still stand firm that Turner will not live up to his top 3 draft billing this year, but will definitely put up some big games mixed in. It's the consistency that will be a problem thanks to a lack of receiving ability.
Baltimore Ravens - Flacco was given the green light and set a career high in both attempts and yardage while tossing 3 TDs. Now this is the Chiefs defense we're talking about here, so we can't get too excited, especially with his mundane weapons. However, Flacco is looking like a stronger QB2 than expected at the moment. Ray Rice looked great, but McGahee was exclusive at the goal line. I'd like to see how Rice does against a tough defense first, but it's clear that he'll get his carries and receptions this year. Mark Clayton and Todd Heap are healthy, which helps Flacco quite a bit, but with as injury prone as those two are, it's hard to say for how long.
Buffalo Bills - Trent Edwards did a good job with his play calling, keeping the Patriots off balance for a lot of the game, but he again was completely reliant on underneath passing despite having 2 excellent deep threats. I did hear during the game that the Patriots were often doubling both WRs, which makes sense given the lack of other receiving options they possess. Both Owens and Evans were undertargeted and not very effective. Fred Jackson, however, looked very impressive and will be forcing a timeshare with Marshawn Lynch if he keeps this up. He's a complete RB.
Carolina Panthers - What a disaster. Delhomme is going to kill Steve Smith at this rate. I don't want to overreact to one game, but he looked just as bad as he did in the playoff game against Arizona last season, and that can't be good for his confidence. If Delhomme goes in the tank, newly signed AJ Feeley will start. Furthermore, Stewart completely cut into DeAngelo's carries with a 14/11 split in favor of DA. Luckily Williams made up for some of it in the air (4/42), but Stewart actually replaced him on the goal line a few times. This has the potential to turn into a mess, and it's something that Williams owners have to honestly be concerned about. The fact they nursed Stewart's injury for so long totally threw me off, but a healthy Stewart was going to play more.
Chicago Bears - I swear Grossman underwent plastic surgery and had us all fooled out there, looks-wise at least. The offense looked pretty brutal, but Cutler did have a couple nice deep throws to Knox who stepped out of bounds, and to Hester for a TD. Olsen was doubled relentlessly, so they'll need to find a way to fix that. There's going to be some growing pains here, but I still think Cutler will manage borderline QB1 numbers when all is said and done. He's more of a match-up play this season though. Forte was completely bottled up and will need the passing game to come around to give him some room. He wasn't quite as explosive, which is a concern. With the Steelers up next, it doesn't get any easier.
Cincinnati Bengals - Palmer looked good, and both of his INTs were not really his fault. One came on a ball that bounced high up in the air on an attempted catch, and the other came as a last second heave. Coles dropped a ton of passes, and he could arguably be the 4th best WR on this team behind Ochocinco (very solid first game), Chris Henry, and Andre Caldwell. Benson also looked solid with workman-like numbers and a TD. Feel confident with Palmer and Ochocinco moving forward, but I'd probably shy away from Coles until he bounces back. Since he's a veteran, he'll have a chance.
Cleveland Browns - Ugh. Quinn looked bad, and it killed Edwards. Lewis looked surprisingly spry, so he's not giving up his job without a fight. James Davis did nothing, but he did suffer through an auto accident earlier in the weekend, so we'll give him a week 1 pass. This passing game worries me.
Dallas Cowboys - Who needs TO? Romo looked great, and Roy Williams showed he still has explosion the slant he busted for a 66 yard TD. On top of this, Barber dominated the backfield (14-6) while back in his closer role. If the passing attack can keep this up, Barber will be a borderline RB1 again, just like he was in 2006/2007. He'll score 10+ times. Crayton had a fluky game aided by an uncharacteristic 80 yard TD. Don't rush to throw him in your lineup.
Denver Broncos - Orton was shaky again, but this was to be expected as he works out the kinks in the new offense. I know I sound like an Orton apologist, but I believe in the players he has around him. Marshall was back to dropping passes again, and he didn't target Royal enough. Stay with the Broncos passing game; it'll come around. Their backfield looks like a nightmare right now, and Moreno can't be started.
Detroit Lions - That went about as well as could be expected. Stafford wasn't accurate and threw 3 INTs, but he was clearly willing to throw the ball down the field, which is an extension from the preseason. That's great news for CJ who produced 90 yards on only 3 catches. He should have had a TD, but the refs blew the call on the field, and then blew the challenge. Ridiculous. Kevin Smith didn't generate much on the ground, but he scored and got 22 touches thanks to 7 catches. He might threaten RB1 value in PPR leagues this year.
Green Bay Packers - Rodgers had trouble, but the Bears defensive pressure was dominant and forced some bad throws when WRs were open. No worries...Rodgers won't be facing this sort of pass rush each week. He salvaged his day with a game winning bomb to Jennings with just over a minute left, which was the opposite of last year when he posted huge numbers and often came up short late in games. Ryan Grant had a good burst and looked like a solid RB2 on the field. I think I might have been wrong about him this year, assuming he can stay healthy.
Houston Texans - Disaster. Also, patience. They faced a ferocious Jets defense who attacked them all game long with a very aggressive pass rush. There is way too much talent on the Houston offense to be worried. Darrell Revis is evolving into one of the elite shutdown corners in the NFL, and he held AJ in check.
Indianapolis Colts - It wasn't pretty, but they got it done. Manning looked good outside of an awful forced throw to Wayne on a fade in the endzone. Wayne was absolutely dominant. Gonzalez's injury will help Dallas Clark's fantasy value. The running game looked bad, especially Addai, and Brown actually got most of the 4th quarter work. The committee is in full effect, but if Addai can't make some plays, he could start losing even more touches.
Jacksonville Jaguars - MJD was featured, and was really the only offense. Garrard did the best he could to make some plays, but his receivers didn't help him out at all. Holt struggled to separate, and there's nothing going on opposite him. They badly need the talented Mike Sims-Walker to cash in on his talent and start producing.
Kansas City Chiefs - Nobody expected 24 points against Baltimore, but a blocked punt TD and a long INT return inside the 10 certainly helped change that. Croyle did a reasonable job filling in for Cassel, but only lead one good TD drive all game. LJ was completely ineffective. Bowe scored to save his owners on his first catch in the 3rd quarter, and he didn't catch another pass until hauling in a couple in the 4th quarter. He is going to be doubled relentlessly, so we'll have to keep an eye on how he handles that. Mark Bradley's good game was definitely a positive moving forward. He certainly has the talent to help Bowe out opposite him.
Miami Dolphins - Despite a lot of outlets talking about Ricky Williams looking slow in the preseason, he looked plenty quick, and the 13/9 touch ratio between Ronnie and Ricky is a true concern moving forward. This looked exactly like last year, and when Ricky replaced Ronnie at the 9 and caught a TD pass, it felt like a kick to the crotch. Miami clearly needs to establish the run next game as they looked lost on offense. Ronnie Brown is still this team's best offensive weapon. I'm not overly worried as Ronnie is probably everyone's RB2, and he'll be able to produce at that level, but his RB1 upside will be killed if they continue to use the same split as last year.
Minnesota Vikings - Favre spent most of the game handing off to Peterson, who mauled in the 2nd half and posted a monster game. As Favre gets up to speed, expect better things from Bernard Berrian. Percy Harvin was used all over and got 5 touches, so also expect him to become more involved as well. Sydney Rice looks like a red zone weapon with his size. He's going to score some TDs this year.
New England Patriots - Brady certainly didn't start as hot as he showed in the preseason, but he certainly finished that way. He's definitely back, using Welker underneath and Moss down the field exactly as you'd expect. Watson also turned in a huge game, and he's worth owning as a TE2. They do need a 3rd receiving option to continue to leave things open for Moss and Welker. True to form they used a full out committee, and Taylor even scored on a goal line carry. Maroney and Taylor are worth RB5 roster stashes, and Faulk is definitely worth owning in PPR.
New Orleans Saints - That went according to plan. Everyone looked great, although I'm sure Colston owners were fuming a bit...thankfully he scored once. Mike Bell looked terrific, and this is pretty much worst case scenario for Pierre Thomas owners. Bell might have just forced his way into a 3 man committee, but let's not overreact yet until Thomas returns. Thomas owners need to own Bell, obviously.
New York Giants - Eli actually looked good...he spread the ball around to all his receivers. Unfortunately, Nicks sustained a sprained foot and will be lost for a few weeks. Jacobs struggled, but the Skins' defense projected to be tougher this year. No worries. Bradshaw looked great with his touches and will be a RB3 this season...he has clearly assumed Derrick Ward's role from last year.
New York Jets - Mark Sanchez looked great, spreading the ball around to his receivers well and remaining calm. Thomas Jones looked explosive again, so Shonn Greene is an afterthought for now, but I don't believe he'll last the season. Leon Washington, as promised, was given 15 carries and 4 catches as well. Washington looks like a good RB3 this season as he's clearly a bigger part of the offense. Cotchery and Keller both look like good options moving forward, but expect ups and downs as you normally would with a rookie QB. It won't always look this good.
Oakland Raiders - Russell looked horribly inaccurate yet again for most of the game, which is his biggest downfall right now. DHB also continued his dropped passes.Louis Murphy, on the other hand, looked pretty good and will probably start opposite Chaz Schilens when he returns. Zach Miller dominated the middle of the field and put up TE1 numbers. He's a favorite of Russell's, and there's no reason he shouldn't be owned. The rushing attack looked dominant in the 1st half, but San Diego caught on and started slowing it down in the 2nd half. The Raiders used a full committee of McFadden and Bush, and both looked very good, with Bush getting the call at the goal line. Expect this to be their strategy this year.
Philadelphia Eagles - Thanks to the defense doing the heavy lifting, McNabb and Westbrook weren't asked to do much, and luckily both scored at least once to keep the owners happy. McNabb's rib injury needs to be monitored this week, and the fact they signed Jeff Garcia is probably indicative that he won't play. They've lost a ton of confidence in Kevin Kolb. Westbrook looked great, helping ease concerns about his offseason surgeries. I'm not confident he'll last (who is?), but he's the man while healthy. McCoy looked good filling in, but most of his carries came with the game out of hand. The receivers will bounce back, but they need to be downgraded if McNabb misses time.
San Diego Chargers - Phillip Rivers started slow, but turned it on the 4th quarter when it was time to step up. He finished with respectable numbers. Vincent Jackson posted a solid game despite being blanketed by Nnamdi Asomugha all game, and Gates dominated the middle of the field while looking healthy again...he missed a TD by inches. Sorry LT owners, your high pick is in a full out committee. He also sprained an ankle in the 1st quarter and was constantly coming out of the game after a rush. Sproles looked explosive while LT did not, and Sproles is the official 3rd down RB.
San Francisco 49ers - Gore was the clear focal point of the offense, and while he certainly didn't impress with his YPC, he scored twice and caught some passes to turn in a good fantasy day. Josh Morgan was absent the entire 2nd half after posting a solid 1st half. I would assume an injury would have been announced, so my guess was he did something wrong and Singletary isn't making a spectacle out of it like he erroneously did with Vernon Davis last year. Speaking of Davis, he looked solid and they tried to get him the ball. Make sure he's owned as a TE2.
Seattle Seahawks - Wow, I was totally surprised by this. Now they were playing the Rams, so like with the Ravens, expectations have to be kept in check, but Hasselbeck did a great job spreading the ball around. He's going to be effective while healthy. Housh caught 6 passes, but had a long of 9. I read he did absolutely nothing after the catch, so he's going to have a very hard time fulfilling fantasy expectations if that continues. Carlson looked good, but he's going to have to block more than he did this game against better defensive fronts. I'm not sold on him as a TE1 despite the big game. Julius Jones dominated carries until the game got out of hand, so he's the clear starter here, and a low end RB2/solid RB3 much like Cedric Benson. He's only a match up play.
St. Louis Rams - Steve Spagnolo's season couldn't have started off any worse. Marc Bulger reportedly looks shell shocked out there, and people are calling for him to be benched immediately. Steven Jackson started hot, but the game got way out of hand. The most disappointing part of this was Jackson's lack of involvement in the passing game, but don't worry, I guarantee you they'll fix that. Laurent Robinson looked very good and along with Donnie Avery, the Rams actually have a good duo at WR. Now if only they had a QB...
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Leftwich, per usual, took some hits but moved the offense. Cadillac most certainly is back, but he's evenly splitting with Derrick Ward. Earnest Graham owners can forget about him for the time being. Cadillac will be a popular add this week, but he's not worth starting if he's only seeing 10-15 carries, especially since neither Caddy nor Ward are the official goal line back. Both can succeed in that role as evidenced by their 1 yard TDs. Caddy has a better chance of staying healthy in this timeshare situation. Antonio Bryant's knee acted up again, and this is a serious concern. I'd keep him benched until he proves he's healthy. Winslow looked solid.
Washington Redskins - The offense looked about as expected...mediocre. Cambell was OK, Portis did nothing outside of his 34 yard first run, Cooley turned in a fine day, and Randle-El surprised people (don't go picking him up). Blah all around. I wouldn't start anyone but Cooley here.
Friday, September 11, 2009
PIT/TEN Observations
Unfortunately I missed most of the 1st half, but it seems like in all reality I didn't miss much of anything. I tuned it right before the Titans went on their drive that led to Bironas' blocked FG, and saw the rest of the game from there.
Tennessee - The Titans did NOT do a good job trying to get Chris Johnson in space. I didn't see many screens, draws, or pass plays designed to spread the defense out and give Johnson room to run. I think this really hurt their offense in a game where they needed to be creative. LenDale White looked mostly unimpressive, and it proved that Chris Johnson is indeed the man of the backfield. Kerry Collins looked solid in the pocket, and Justin Gage was clearly his first read, especially on 3rd downs. Gage had one drop on a pass behind him, but other than that, he did a good job getting open against a tough defense. He could be a solid WR3. Nate Washington was limited, and Kenny Britt posted solid numbers in his absence, but outside of the 57 yard catch on a blown coverage, I'm pretty sure Washington will resume starting when he's 100% as he's the best deep threat on the roster. As far as Bironas is concerned...everyone who owns him should just forget that game. A bad snap and bad blocking were the reason he missed 2 FGs...it had nothing to do with him.
Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh's rushing attack looked awful. While some may chalk that up to TEN's stingy run defense, I read that Parker simply sucked. I missed the majority of his carries, but he apparently looked slow and danced too much. Mendenhall hasn't received any positive press since he arrived last year, so this could be a rough season for Pittsburgh on the ground. This further proves my claim that Big Ben will bounce back this season as odds are they will have to throw more than they'd prefer. Holmes looked awesome, and Ward continues to prove people wrong, like myself, that he's going to start declining as a fantasy factor. Barring another injury, he should post yet another WR3 season. Those who own PIT's defense had to cringe when Polamalu was buried doing the splits under a pile. They're calling it a MCL sprain at the moment, but an MRI is forthcoming. It would not shock me at all if he's torn his ACL. That would be a huge blow to their defense as he's a leader and the reason why their secondary is so imposing.
All in all, it was a very entertaining first game of the season!
Tennessee - The Titans did NOT do a good job trying to get Chris Johnson in space. I didn't see many screens, draws, or pass plays designed to spread the defense out and give Johnson room to run. I think this really hurt their offense in a game where they needed to be creative. LenDale White looked mostly unimpressive, and it proved that Chris Johnson is indeed the man of the backfield. Kerry Collins looked solid in the pocket, and Justin Gage was clearly his first read, especially on 3rd downs. Gage had one drop on a pass behind him, but other than that, he did a good job getting open against a tough defense. He could be a solid WR3. Nate Washington was limited, and Kenny Britt posted solid numbers in his absence, but outside of the 57 yard catch on a blown coverage, I'm pretty sure Washington will resume starting when he's 100% as he's the best deep threat on the roster. As far as Bironas is concerned...everyone who owns him should just forget that game. A bad snap and bad blocking were the reason he missed 2 FGs...it had nothing to do with him.
Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh's rushing attack looked awful. While some may chalk that up to TEN's stingy run defense, I read that Parker simply sucked. I missed the majority of his carries, but he apparently looked slow and danced too much. Mendenhall hasn't received any positive press since he arrived last year, so this could be a rough season for Pittsburgh on the ground. This further proves my claim that Big Ben will bounce back this season as odds are they will have to throw more than they'd prefer. Holmes looked awesome, and Ward continues to prove people wrong, like myself, that he's going to start declining as a fantasy factor. Barring another injury, he should post yet another WR3 season. Those who own PIT's defense had to cringe when Polamalu was buried doing the splits under a pile. They're calling it a MCL sprain at the moment, but an MRI is forthcoming. It would not shock me at all if he's torn his ACL. That would be a huge blow to their defense as he's a leader and the reason why their secondary is so imposing.
All in all, it was a very entertaining first game of the season!
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Week 1 Injury/Depth Chart Report
QB:
Mark Sanchez - Sanchez has won the starting job. Given the run-first offensive system and the lack of explosive weapons, you're probably looking at Joe Flacco part 2.
Brady Quinn - Quinn has won the starting job. He does have an explosive WR1, but almost nothing else. He's a decent QB2.
Kyle Orton - Orton has been able to practice effectively despite his finger injury via reports from Denver's practices. He should start in week 1 barring a setback. He's a slightly risky QB2, but I still very much like his outlook for the 2009 season as a sleeper that everyone will laugh at you for owning.
Matt Cassel - Cassel's week 1 status is very much up in the air. Considering he's facing Baltimore, I would hope you're not relying on him to start for your team. Brodie Croyle would start in his place if he cannot go, and he's obviously not an option whatsoever either.
Matthew Stafford - Stafford has won the starting job. Much like Quinn, he has an explosive WR1, but almost nothing else. He's a very low-end QB2 as it stands right now, although he's probably worth watching a bit closer than Sanchez.
Byron Leftwich - Leftwich has won the starting job. He's going to be leading a run-heavy offense, but he has a mauling offensive line in front of him, and he has some good targets in Antonio Bryant and Kellen Winslow. He's a low-end QB2 right now.
Marc Bulger - Bulger has reportedly looked good in practice as he comes back from a fractured pinkie, and all reports have him ready to go in week 1. He's obviously not to be in your lineup, however.
RB:
Marshawn Lynch - Lynch is suspended for the first 3 weeks of the season. Fred Jackson will start and probably provide decent RB2 value, but his offensive line and offensive coordinator turnover threaten the stability of his surrounding offense.
Fred Taylor - Taylor will get the "starting" nod for the Patriots, but if they open in a spread offense on the first snap, Kevin Faulk will be in there. Faulk will continue to dominate passing downs while Taylor, Maroney, and Sammy Morris split carries in some fashion. Also keep an eye on Benjarvis Green-Ellis. All are worth owning as RB5s, but none should sniff your starting lineup.
Ray Rice - Rice was officially awarded the starting job, although all of us knew much earlier than this. He's a RB2 against the disaster that is KC's defense.
Willie Parker - Parker has won the goal line role, making him a solid RB2 while that lasts.
Maurice Jones-Drew - MJD has practiced all week with his shin bruise, and he's all systems go for week 1.
Knowshon Moreno - Moreno has practiced and will likely play in week 1, but he's not 100% quite yet. Look for him to split carries in some fashion, so he's a risky flex play at best. Look for players with a more defined role. He'll be the man in Denver before long.
Oakland Raiders - They have still not announced a starting RB. Why they're still messing around with Fargas I have no idea. Well I do actually, I'm lying. It's the fucking Raiders. McFadden is the only safe play here...he's going to be on the field plenty no matter who "starts".
Marion Barber / Felix Jones - The Cowboys announced a 50/50 split in carries for this season between these two guys, but I find this a bit harder to believe. While Felix Jones is undoubtedly more explosive, Barber is simply the better runner between the tackles. It'll probably come down to the game situation, but if it's close or the Cowboys need to run the clock, you can bet Barber will lead the team in carries.
Brian Westbrook - Westbrook is all systems go for week 1, and worth using as a RB2. Keep a close eye on his explosiveness after 2 offseason surgeries (knee, ankle).
Jonathan Stewart - In a big surprise, Stewart returned to a full practice and is not on the injury report. While Stewart shouldn't be anywhere close to your lineup, this could be a downer on DeAngelo Williams before long. It shouldn't be an issue in week 1, though.
Pierre Thomas - Thomas is still battling his sprained MCL and is questionable for week 1. He claims he's ready, but it remains to be seen if the team will risk him in what should be an easy win over the Lions. Mike Bell would start in his place and be a solid RB2.
Cadillac Williams / Derrick Ward - Williams is supposedly starting in week 1. I know Ward was likely drafted as a RB2, but you cannot risk using anyone in this backfield until we see how it plays out, especially with the 2-2-1 rotational series claim.
Tim Hightower / Beanie Wells - Another RB mess to avoid. I think Hightower will start, but Wells is the better RB here. Neither is worth using until one emerges, most likely Wells. If you have to, I'd use Wells.
WR:
Miami Dolphins - They have an absolute mess opposite Ted Ginn Jr., with Greg Camarillo, Davone Bess, and Brian Hartline all competing still. Avoid using a roster spot on any of them for now.
Wes Welker - Welker's had a mysterious injury for a while, and with the Patriots being so secretive and also playing on Monday night, odds are you don't have another similar alternative in that time slot. Unless definitive news is made public prior to Sunday's games, I would opt for an alternative.
Mark Clayton - Clayton is expected to start this week despite missing most of the offseason with his usual assortment of leg injuries, but if you have him in your lineup, you're in bad shape anyways.
Chris Henry - Henry missed Thursday's practice with a thigh injury, so keep an eye on this for the weekend. I'd probably veer away from him anyways until it's clear what role he'll have in the offense, but if he's healthy, you can take a chance on him as a WR3.
Nate Washington - Washington is questionable for tonight's game, and with him not being 100%, he should not be started.
Kevin Walter - Walter will likely be limited in week 1 with his hamstring injury, so he's quite risky as a starter on your team.
Brandon Marshall - Everything points to Marshall starting on Sunday, so he's startable was a WR2/WR3.
Chaz Schilens - Schilens will miss week 1 as he rehabs with a broken foot.
New York Giants - Steve Smith is locked in at one spot, and Hixon will start across from him. However, expect to see plenty of Hakeem Nicks. Smith can be used in PPR leagues, but I would avoid the situation if I could until we see it play out. Smith, Hixon and Nicks are well worth owning on your bench though.
Bernard Berrian - Berrian has been limited in practice so far, and he has no game work with Favre, but he's expected to start. He's a high risk/reward WR3 play in week 1.
Antonio Bryant - Bryant is all systems go for week 1 after offseason knee surgery. He can be used safely as a WR3.
Anquan Boldin - Boldin's leg injuries are back already with him being limited by a hamstring injury. He's expected to play, but could be limited in the game on a snap count. He's too explosive to bench, but temper your expectations.
Donnie Avery - Avery is all systems go and has a good match up in week 1 against Seattle's banged up secondary. You can use him as a WR3.
Mark Sanchez - Sanchez has won the starting job. Given the run-first offensive system and the lack of explosive weapons, you're probably looking at Joe Flacco part 2.
Brady Quinn - Quinn has won the starting job. He does have an explosive WR1, but almost nothing else. He's a decent QB2.
Kyle Orton - Orton has been able to practice effectively despite his finger injury via reports from Denver's practices. He should start in week 1 barring a setback. He's a slightly risky QB2, but I still very much like his outlook for the 2009 season as a sleeper that everyone will laugh at you for owning.
Matt Cassel - Cassel's week 1 status is very much up in the air. Considering he's facing Baltimore, I would hope you're not relying on him to start for your team. Brodie Croyle would start in his place if he cannot go, and he's obviously not an option whatsoever either.
Matthew Stafford - Stafford has won the starting job. Much like Quinn, he has an explosive WR1, but almost nothing else. He's a very low-end QB2 as it stands right now, although he's probably worth watching a bit closer than Sanchez.
Byron Leftwich - Leftwich has won the starting job. He's going to be leading a run-heavy offense, but he has a mauling offensive line in front of him, and he has some good targets in Antonio Bryant and Kellen Winslow. He's a low-end QB2 right now.
Marc Bulger - Bulger has reportedly looked good in practice as he comes back from a fractured pinkie, and all reports have him ready to go in week 1. He's obviously not to be in your lineup, however.
RB:
Marshawn Lynch - Lynch is suspended for the first 3 weeks of the season. Fred Jackson will start and probably provide decent RB2 value, but his offensive line and offensive coordinator turnover threaten the stability of his surrounding offense.
Fred Taylor - Taylor will get the "starting" nod for the Patriots, but if they open in a spread offense on the first snap, Kevin Faulk will be in there. Faulk will continue to dominate passing downs while Taylor, Maroney, and Sammy Morris split carries in some fashion. Also keep an eye on Benjarvis Green-Ellis. All are worth owning as RB5s, but none should sniff your starting lineup.
Ray Rice - Rice was officially awarded the starting job, although all of us knew much earlier than this. He's a RB2 against the disaster that is KC's defense.
Willie Parker - Parker has won the goal line role, making him a solid RB2 while that lasts.
Maurice Jones-Drew - MJD has practiced all week with his shin bruise, and he's all systems go for week 1.
Knowshon Moreno - Moreno has practiced and will likely play in week 1, but he's not 100% quite yet. Look for him to split carries in some fashion, so he's a risky flex play at best. Look for players with a more defined role. He'll be the man in Denver before long.
Oakland Raiders - They have still not announced a starting RB. Why they're still messing around with Fargas I have no idea. Well I do actually, I'm lying. It's the fucking Raiders. McFadden is the only safe play here...he's going to be on the field plenty no matter who "starts".
Marion Barber / Felix Jones - The Cowboys announced a 50/50 split in carries for this season between these two guys, but I find this a bit harder to believe. While Felix Jones is undoubtedly more explosive, Barber is simply the better runner between the tackles. It'll probably come down to the game situation, but if it's close or the Cowboys need to run the clock, you can bet Barber will lead the team in carries.
Brian Westbrook - Westbrook is all systems go for week 1, and worth using as a RB2. Keep a close eye on his explosiveness after 2 offseason surgeries (knee, ankle).
Jonathan Stewart - In a big surprise, Stewart returned to a full practice and is not on the injury report. While Stewart shouldn't be anywhere close to your lineup, this could be a downer on DeAngelo Williams before long. It shouldn't be an issue in week 1, though.
Pierre Thomas - Thomas is still battling his sprained MCL and is questionable for week 1. He claims he's ready, but it remains to be seen if the team will risk him in what should be an easy win over the Lions. Mike Bell would start in his place and be a solid RB2.
Cadillac Williams / Derrick Ward - Williams is supposedly starting in week 1. I know Ward was likely drafted as a RB2, but you cannot risk using anyone in this backfield until we see how it plays out, especially with the 2-2-1 rotational series claim.
Tim Hightower / Beanie Wells - Another RB mess to avoid. I think Hightower will start, but Wells is the better RB here. Neither is worth using until one emerges, most likely Wells. If you have to, I'd use Wells.
WR:
Miami Dolphins - They have an absolute mess opposite Ted Ginn Jr., with Greg Camarillo, Davone Bess, and Brian Hartline all competing still. Avoid using a roster spot on any of them for now.
Wes Welker - Welker's had a mysterious injury for a while, and with the Patriots being so secretive and also playing on Monday night, odds are you don't have another similar alternative in that time slot. Unless definitive news is made public prior to Sunday's games, I would opt for an alternative.
Mark Clayton - Clayton is expected to start this week despite missing most of the offseason with his usual assortment of leg injuries, but if you have him in your lineup, you're in bad shape anyways.
Chris Henry - Henry missed Thursday's practice with a thigh injury, so keep an eye on this for the weekend. I'd probably veer away from him anyways until it's clear what role he'll have in the offense, but if he's healthy, you can take a chance on him as a WR3.
Nate Washington - Washington is questionable for tonight's game, and with him not being 100%, he should not be started.
Kevin Walter - Walter will likely be limited in week 1 with his hamstring injury, so he's quite risky as a starter on your team.
Brandon Marshall - Everything points to Marshall starting on Sunday, so he's startable was a WR2/WR3.
Chaz Schilens - Schilens will miss week 1 as he rehabs with a broken foot.
New York Giants - Steve Smith is locked in at one spot, and Hixon will start across from him. However, expect to see plenty of Hakeem Nicks. Smith can be used in PPR leagues, but I would avoid the situation if I could until we see it play out. Smith, Hixon and Nicks are well worth owning on your bench though.
Bernard Berrian - Berrian has been limited in practice so far, and he has no game work with Favre, but he's expected to start. He's a high risk/reward WR3 play in week 1.
Antonio Bryant - Bryant is all systems go for week 1 after offseason knee surgery. He can be used safely as a WR3.
Anquan Boldin - Boldin's leg injuries are back already with him being limited by a hamstring injury. He's expected to play, but could be limited in the game on a snap count. He's too explosive to bench, but temper your expectations.
Donnie Avery - Avery is all systems go and has a good match up in week 1 against Seattle's banged up secondary. You can use him as a WR3.
NFL Season Opener!
It's football time ladies and gentlemen, and all of our draft preparation is about to enter it's first phase in week 1. Pittsburgh and Tennessee will start us off tonight. I wanted to do some live blogging of the game, but I have a doubleheader in softball and will probably catch most of the game at the bar.
As far as thoughts for tonight, keep a close eye on the TEN defense. They were probably overdrafted in most leagues simply given the fact that they lost arguably the most dominant defensive lineman, Albert Haynesworth, in the offseason. What type of ripple effect this loss will have on the rest of the defense is well worth watching not only for TEN defensive owners, but also for people on the fence about playing offensive skill position players against them.
Kerry Collins and Big Ben were drafted as QB2s most likely, so I doubt either of them are starting for many teams tonight. I'm predicting a bounce back season for Big Ben, so we'll see what type of start he gets off to tonight. Chris Johnson will have some tough sledding, but keep in mind how often TEN used him in space against Baltimore in the playoffs last year, and how effective he was prior to his ankle sprain. He's your first round pick, and while a big game is pretty much impossible, it'd be really hard to bench him in week 1 unless you have two obvious top ten guys also around (Ray Rice versus KC would be awfully tempting). Willie Parker won the goal line duties kinda by default with Mendenhall being unimpressive and nobody else stepping up, so he's a quality RB2 against the Haynesworth-less Titans D. Holmes is an obvious start at WR, but I wouldn't be ecstatic to start anybody else. Gage isn't a bad WR3, but he was probably drafted as your WR4 anyways. Ward should put up workman-like numbers with a chance for a TD. No TEs are worth using, which is a shame as Heath Miller continues to be under-utilized in the Pittsburgh offense.
It should be a great game between two physical teams, and I'm looking forward to week 1!
As far as thoughts for tonight, keep a close eye on the TEN defense. They were probably overdrafted in most leagues simply given the fact that they lost arguably the most dominant defensive lineman, Albert Haynesworth, in the offseason. What type of ripple effect this loss will have on the rest of the defense is well worth watching not only for TEN defensive owners, but also for people on the fence about playing offensive skill position players against them.
Kerry Collins and Big Ben were drafted as QB2s most likely, so I doubt either of them are starting for many teams tonight. I'm predicting a bounce back season for Big Ben, so we'll see what type of start he gets off to tonight. Chris Johnson will have some tough sledding, but keep in mind how often TEN used him in space against Baltimore in the playoffs last year, and how effective he was prior to his ankle sprain. He's your first round pick, and while a big game is pretty much impossible, it'd be really hard to bench him in week 1 unless you have two obvious top ten guys also around (Ray Rice versus KC would be awfully tempting). Willie Parker won the goal line duties kinda by default with Mendenhall being unimpressive and nobody else stepping up, so he's a quality RB2 against the Haynesworth-less Titans D. Holmes is an obvious start at WR, but I wouldn't be ecstatic to start anybody else. Gage isn't a bad WR3, but he was probably drafted as your WR4 anyways. Ward should put up workman-like numbers with a chance for a TD. No TEs are worth using, which is a shame as Heath Miller continues to be under-utilized in the Pittsburgh offense.
It should be a great game between two physical teams, and I'm looking forward to week 1!
Thursday, September 3, 2009
My Newest 1st Pick Conundrum
I have my 2nd draft on Monday night, and I pick 12th out of 12 teams in this one. I'm obviously in a much different situation than in my previous draft where I picked 6th. The bad thing is that this significantly alters my preparation for the 1st - 4th round picks, but the good thing is that my targets for the 5th round and beyond stay the same.
The 12th pick in the draft is one of the most ideal positions to get a little crazy. I am generally married to taking a RB in the 1st round, as I've never drafted another position there before in my 9 years of playing fantasy football, but the FF world has changed with many teams utilizing a RBBC attack on the ground. Frank Gore's ADP is holding steady at 14, and my ideal situation is him falling to me at 12. If that's the case, then my draft will be very easy from then on out. If he doesn't fall, then I'm looking at the following players:
Brandon Jacobs - Jacobs was the #12 RB last season, but with 3 missed games. Missed games are a staple of owning Jacobs it appears. He mostly makes up for it by being a TD beast (ignore the 2007 anomaly), but I generally like RBs that catch passes so that they remain productive even in games where their teams are often trailing. The good thing is that with the Giants defense, they'll be in more close games than most teams. Bradshaw won't hinder Jacobs any more than Ward did last year, and it's not a bad thing because of Jacobs' propensity to get injured. He's also an excellent change-of-pace to keep defenses on their toes.
Marion Barber - I'm not worried about Barber's injury issues that some people talk about. He's only had one injury, and that was last season with that toe injury. I'm also not too worried about Choice's emergence last season because despite his impressive performance, he's still clearly 3rd on both the talent and depth charts. What I am worried about is the lack of offensive explosion without Owens...Romo needs Roy Williams to step up and fill that void. Williams has the talent, but it's anyone's guess as to if he'll actually man up and produce. Barber was a RB1, the #7 RB actually, in 2007 when he last had that "closer" role on the offense. I think the Cowboys will put him back in that role, especially with Felix Jones looking so good. The problem is that was with the Owens-led team, they had that explosive element that allowed them to get leads, and then Barber mashed defenses in the 4th quarter. This team's makeup is different. It might balance out better as they'll favor the running game more since that's where their best talent lies, but it's hard to say.
Brian Westbrook - He's 30 years old and coming off of two major offseason leg surgeries. I'm not buying that he'll return to form, and given his ADP has sank to 2.07, it appears fantasy nation is somewhat agreeing. McCoy's hype has faded a bit after showing that he goes down a bit too easy, but I just don't see Westbrook making a fantasy splash in 2009. I'll pass.
Clinton Portis - Portis has lost his explosion from his earlier career, and at 28 with the amount of carries he's had, it's not surprising. He won me two fantasy titles during his two seasons in Denver, so I have a place in my FF heart for him. :) He needs a huge workload at this stage of his career to be a stud, like he did during the 1st half of last season, but he just can't handle that anymore. He's not a RB1 anymore. I'll pass.
Ronnie Brown - Yes, I'm considering Ronnie Brown at the 12/13 turn. Yes, his ADP is 3.09. The fact is that I will not have a chance at him with the 3.12 pick because I know there's a couple guys in my league that also like him. In 2007, he was a RB1, the #1 RB in fact, before his torn ACL. He's a do-it-all RB, in a contract year, playing in a run-first offense with a great offensive line. I initially wavered on my Brown/Thomas decision in my first draft, but I'm more comfortable with it now. Thomas' knee injury doesn't particularly scare me, but it's hard to know what's going on in Sean Payton's crazy head. PT's knee injury might have him wavering as to how much he wants to use him this season.
After looking at the RBs available at the end of the 3rd round (Kevin Smith, Thomas Jones, McFadden, Addai), I just can't see taking two of those guys and having a great backfield. I know this is the area that Turner and Forte exploded from last year, and it could be Smith and McFadden this year, so maybe I'll change my mind. I'm tentatively ruling out going WR/WR. I wouldn't consider a QB that high no matter what...there just isn't enough of a drop off in my mind from 1st to 8th QB or however many til I decide to take one to warrant taking one. I'm going to have to balance out the pros/cons of Brandon Jacobs, Marion Barber, and Ronnie Brown. As of now, I will admit I'm leaning towards Brown...he has the best upside of them all. You need to take a chance drafting that late in the 1st round, and that might be the one I take.
Just let Gore fall and I'll be just fine. :)
The 12th pick in the draft is one of the most ideal positions to get a little crazy. I am generally married to taking a RB in the 1st round, as I've never drafted another position there before in my 9 years of playing fantasy football, but the FF world has changed with many teams utilizing a RBBC attack on the ground. Frank Gore's ADP is holding steady at 14, and my ideal situation is him falling to me at 12. If that's the case, then my draft will be very easy from then on out. If he doesn't fall, then I'm looking at the following players:
Brandon Jacobs - Jacobs was the #12 RB last season, but with 3 missed games. Missed games are a staple of owning Jacobs it appears. He mostly makes up for it by being a TD beast (ignore the 2007 anomaly), but I generally like RBs that catch passes so that they remain productive even in games where their teams are often trailing. The good thing is that with the Giants defense, they'll be in more close games than most teams. Bradshaw won't hinder Jacobs any more than Ward did last year, and it's not a bad thing because of Jacobs' propensity to get injured. He's also an excellent change-of-pace to keep defenses on their toes.
Marion Barber - I'm not worried about Barber's injury issues that some people talk about. He's only had one injury, and that was last season with that toe injury. I'm also not too worried about Choice's emergence last season because despite his impressive performance, he's still clearly 3rd on both the talent and depth charts. What I am worried about is the lack of offensive explosion without Owens...Romo needs Roy Williams to step up and fill that void. Williams has the talent, but it's anyone's guess as to if he'll actually man up and produce. Barber was a RB1, the #7 RB actually, in 2007 when he last had that "closer" role on the offense. I think the Cowboys will put him back in that role, especially with Felix Jones looking so good. The problem is that was with the Owens-led team, they had that explosive element that allowed them to get leads, and then Barber mashed defenses in the 4th quarter. This team's makeup is different. It might balance out better as they'll favor the running game more since that's where their best talent lies, but it's hard to say.
Brian Westbrook - He's 30 years old and coming off of two major offseason leg surgeries. I'm not buying that he'll return to form, and given his ADP has sank to 2.07, it appears fantasy nation is somewhat agreeing. McCoy's hype has faded a bit after showing that he goes down a bit too easy, but I just don't see Westbrook making a fantasy splash in 2009. I'll pass.
Clinton Portis - Portis has lost his explosion from his earlier career, and at 28 with the amount of carries he's had, it's not surprising. He won me two fantasy titles during his two seasons in Denver, so I have a place in my FF heart for him. :) He needs a huge workload at this stage of his career to be a stud, like he did during the 1st half of last season, but he just can't handle that anymore. He's not a RB1 anymore. I'll pass.
Ronnie Brown - Yes, I'm considering Ronnie Brown at the 12/13 turn. Yes, his ADP is 3.09. The fact is that I will not have a chance at him with the 3.12 pick because I know there's a couple guys in my league that also like him. In 2007, he was a RB1, the #1 RB in fact, before his torn ACL. He's a do-it-all RB, in a contract year, playing in a run-first offense with a great offensive line. I initially wavered on my Brown/Thomas decision in my first draft, but I'm more comfortable with it now. Thomas' knee injury doesn't particularly scare me, but it's hard to know what's going on in Sean Payton's crazy head. PT's knee injury might have him wavering as to how much he wants to use him this season.
After looking at the RBs available at the end of the 3rd round (Kevin Smith, Thomas Jones, McFadden, Addai), I just can't see taking two of those guys and having a great backfield. I know this is the area that Turner and Forte exploded from last year, and it could be Smith and McFadden this year, so maybe I'll change my mind. I'm tentatively ruling out going WR/WR. I wouldn't consider a QB that high no matter what...there just isn't enough of a drop off in my mind from 1st to 8th QB or however many til I decide to take one to warrant taking one. I'm going to have to balance out the pros/cons of Brandon Jacobs, Marion Barber, and Ronnie Brown. As of now, I will admit I'm leaning towards Brown...he has the best upside of them all. You need to take a chance drafting that late in the 1st round, and that might be the one I take.
Just let Gore fall and I'll be just fine. :)
Monday, August 31, 2009
Ideal Drafting Time
This seems to be a popular topic among fantasy circles...when to draft your teams. Some like earlier drafts because it allows sleepers like Ray Rice to remain sleepers that you can draft late and look like a genius for doing. Others like later drafts because you can avoid costly preseason injuries.
Me? I personally like to draft as late as possible. I did do an early draft a couple years ago because a friend was leaving the country for 2 month European vacation and wouldn't return until the season started, and I cleaned house with the sleepers that year. Everything considered, however, I just don't like holding my breath each week of the preseason to see what happens. Plus, with numerous depth chart changes and the ability to watch rookies in their first live action at the NFL level, I find it more advantageous to everyone in the league to have as much information as you can before the season starts and you settle into your targets.
Fantasy football is ultimately meant to be fun. Sure, it's incredibly frustrating when dealing with injuries, drafting busts, having the 2nd highest score of the week but facing the top scoring team, and so forth...but there's a lot of fun to be had when doing your draft preparation and watching it come to a head when your sleeper enters your lineup on a bye week and tears shit up. It also allows you, as perhaps a Cowboys fan, to watch a random Dolphins/Bills game and yell at the TV because they're not throwing to Lee Evans enough (even though he's at 7/90 in the first half).
By ideally having a draft after the 3rd week of preseason, when the depth charts settle and most of the starters have avoided a major preseason injury, you have the most information available to you to prepare for the season. This, to me, is the most fun a draft can be. Everyone gets a chance to see players perform on the field before making a final evaluation. Preseason can be a bit overrated at times, but after an offseason full of fluff media pieces about almost everyone, it's nice to be able to see tangible progress from players you have your eyes on drafting.
Me? I personally like to draft as late as possible. I did do an early draft a couple years ago because a friend was leaving the country for 2 month European vacation and wouldn't return until the season started, and I cleaned house with the sleepers that year. Everything considered, however, I just don't like holding my breath each week of the preseason to see what happens. Plus, with numerous depth chart changes and the ability to watch rookies in their first live action at the NFL level, I find it more advantageous to everyone in the league to have as much information as you can before the season starts and you settle into your targets.
Fantasy football is ultimately meant to be fun. Sure, it's incredibly frustrating when dealing with injuries, drafting busts, having the 2nd highest score of the week but facing the top scoring team, and so forth...but there's a lot of fun to be had when doing your draft preparation and watching it come to a head when your sleeper enters your lineup on a bye week and tears shit up. It also allows you, as perhaps a Cowboys fan, to watch a random Dolphins/Bills game and yell at the TV because they're not throwing to Lee Evans enough (even though he's at 7/90 in the first half).
By ideally having a draft after the 3rd week of preseason, when the depth charts settle and most of the starters have avoided a major preseason injury, you have the most information available to you to prepare for the season. This, to me, is the most fun a draft can be. Everyone gets a chance to see players perform on the field before making a final evaluation. Preseason can be a bit overrated at times, but after an offseason full of fluff media pieces about almost everyone, it's nice to be able to see tangible progress from players you have your eyes on drafting.
Team Updates
I'm going to flip through each team and do a quick run down of any injuries or other developments that might affect draft stock.
AFC
Buffalo Bills - Terrell Owens has reportedly returned to practice, and he blamed his toe injury on his shoes. I'm not wavering from my draft guide and recommending him as a 3rd/4th round WR. The injury doesn't change anything, but I don't see him posting borderline WR1 numbers anymore at his age in the Buffalo offense. His should score, but his receptions and yardage will suffer. This offense will sorely miss blindside tackle Jason Peters.
Miami Dolphins - Everyone is healthy, and Chad Pennington has solidified his starting role with a good preseason, while Chad Henne has been up and down. Brian Hartline has supposedly won the starting WR position, pushing Bess and Camarillo to battle for the slot WR duties, and I expect Bess to win out there as his skills are ideal for the position. Ginn is worth a shot, but I just don't see another impact player in this group.
New England Patriots - Brady suffered a minor shoulder injury after Haynesworth blasted him after a throw, and while he left the game, it's not considered serious. Brady looks to be back to form, and Moss should turn in another elite season. Don't let that shoulder injury affect your view of Brady...he'll be starting in week 1. The RB situation still looks like a mess, but if you can nab Maroney as an RB4/5, he's worth a shot as the most talented member of the group.
New York Jets - Mark Sanchez has won the starting QB job, which shouldn't be surprising. Thomas Jones has struggled to run the ball, and Leon Washington has looked electric. Expect some combination of Jones, Washington, and Greene to start the year, with Washington having the highest upside and my highest recommended pick of the group. Avoid Jones. Cotchery remains a slightly undervalued WR3 with WR2 upside.
Baltimore Ravens - Despite my touting of Ray Rice as the possible goal line back, it appears as though Baltimore will use McGahee in that role for now. McGahee got the goal line carries in preseason week 3, but this might be a committee approach. Ray Rice easily remains the best option of the group here, and McClain is mostly a fullback now. Rice will lead the team in carries barring an injury, and he's also going to dominate 3rd down work as well. McGahee, if had as a late rounder, isn't bad either. I can't recommend anyone else on the team as Flacco has little to throw to, and the receivers are either old (Mason) or have constant injury problems (Clayton, Williams).
Cincinnati Bengals - Chris Henry keeps scoring, and he's certainly making a statement to start on the outside opposite Ochocinco. Coles is better suited for the slot when compared to Henry, and it would allow Cincy to put their 3 best WRs on the field at all times. Palmer looked solid before the injury, and hopefully their offensive line holds up enough to allow him to get the ball down field. Don't allow his ankle injury to affect your view of him, and it might even push him down a round. Palmer, Ochocinco, and Henry (as a WR4, or a boom/bust WR3 if you don't mind the downside) are all recommended. Benson is a low upside RB3, and there's a chance Bernard Scott could overtake him sometime later in the year. Dede Dorsey is also making a case to be the 3rd down RB.
Cleveland Browns - I think it's only a matter of time before Brady Quinn is announced as the starter. He's looked much better, and Braylon Edwards will be better off for it despite him not having a big arm. Edwards has shown improvement and is still recommended in the 5th round. The big news here is that there's a rumor Jamal Lewis might not even make the team, although it would be curious as I doubt they have a hidden RB better than Lewis as a backup unless they feel Lewis would cause a problem for the team in that role. James Davis is making noise, as I've mentioned before, and I bet he swipes Lewis' job before the end of the season. He's a great RB5. Jerome Harrison would be an explosive passing game complement to Davis in this scenario.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Obviously Big Ben's injury is a non-issue after a great performance in preseason week 3. With Parker wearing down and Mendenhall not looking overly impressive, we could see more passing this year than usual from the Steelers. Expect Holmes to be the biggest beneficiary here, although I wouldn't reach for him before the 5th round. Big Ben is a highly recommended QB2. In the backfield I'd still rather own Mendenhall and avoid Parker. Sweed has stepped up and seized the 3rd WR role.
Houston Texans - The offense is looking good, and the goal line back battle is a mess. Brown had it the first two weeks, but Slaton scored from 4 yards out last weekend. Given Brown's injury history, it's hard to imagine him lasting 16 weeks, or even 5 for that matter, but this mess is a drain on Slaton's value. Schaub is a high risk/high reward QB1 who needs a solid QB2 behind him in your lineup. No injuries to mention here.
Indianapolis Colts - The offense is looking insane so far. Manning probably isn't going in the 3rd round anymore after what he's shown in the preseason. I love Reggie Wayne, and I think Dallas Clark will be a stud TE if he can stay healthy. Gonzalez has been a bit up and down, but he should see enough targets to land in the top 24 WRs this season. Donald Brown looks more explosive, but Addai will keep his starting role and earn more carries this year. Addai has a much better chance of staying healthy in a time-share, although I don't like him as a 4th round RB2.
Jacksonville Jaguars - MJD is going to see a huge workload this season. Rashad Jennings, despite a great summer, hasn't stood out in preseason action. Greg Jones isn't much of a threat. Garrard will post his usual numbers, and none of the WRs are really making an impression. This leads me to believe that Holt will be targeted a lot, but he has lost his big play ability, so he only makes for a decent WR3 at best given this. He'll be better in PPR leagues.
Tennessee Titans - Vince Young has turned in a couple good games, showing that he still has the ability to play at the NFL level after a lost 2008 season. He's been inconsistent, but he's shown flashes of good play. This should make the Titans feel comfortable as Collins ages. Kenny Britt has been making waves, and with Nate Washington's injury, he'll have a chance to earn a starting job depending on how long Washington is out. Chris Johnson has struggled with his YPC, and with Mawae out due to an injury, it shows how important he is despite all the talent on that line. Hopefully he'll be ready by week 1. White continues to vulture goal line carries, so nothing has changed. CJ should be a solid RB1, but might not score as often as last year. Britt is a great WR5 speculatory pick, and Washington is a dangerous WR4 selection. Gage should be a solid WR3/4 pick for the season, although he's more of the possession guy.
Denver Broncos - Orton has looked bad more than good, but I'm not worried yet. This whole team is learning a new scheme and how to play with each other, plus Marshall hasn't been on the field yet. Marshall has been suspended for the rest of the preseason, but I would count on him being on the field for week 1. He's a dicey WR2 pick, but if you can land him in the late 5th or somewhere in the 6th round, he's worth taking a shot at there. Scheffler, as expected, seems to be getting lost in the mix. He's a decent speculatory pick as a TE2, but he's probably going to miss Shanahan the most. Royal looks awesome, and he'll be targeted a lot.
Kansas City Chiefs - Matt Cassel is likely out at least for week 1 of the regular season, although since GM Pioli hails from the Belichick tree, it's hard to figure out exactly what's wrong. Rumor has a sprained MCL and ankle. Regardless, this offense scares me. Their offensive line looks awful. I'm starting to regret picking Dwayne Bowe, but they don't have anyone else to throw to. He will dominate targets and should post solid numbers, but I would avoid all other players except for possibly Jamaal Charles as a RB4/5.
Oakland Raiders - Russell is supposedly improving, but it's hard to do such when you have 2 rookies as your WRs, neither of which are particular impressive. The Raiders are set to open up the regular season with DHB and Louis Murphy as the starters, so you know they're going to run as much as any team in the league this season. With McFadden and Bush, and to a much lesser extent Fargas (if he's there week 1), they certainly have the talent to do so. I'm still hoping to see Bush pass Fargas on the depth chart as I feel he's a much better talent, and he pairs well with McFadden.
San Diego Chargers - The offense looks good, as expected. Rivers should turn in a solid season, although his TD will regress some. Vincent Jackson made an amazing one handed catch along the sideline against the Falcons when I watched the first half, and I think he's finally arrived. It's hard to make much of LT's preseason so far, although he didn't particularly impress anyone. I'm still taking Jackson, Gore, and Williams ahead of him. I'd only consider him against guys like Chris Johnson, Slaton, and others in the back end of round 1.
NFC
Dallas Cowboys - Romo is starting to concern me a bit, but he's not playing with Roy Williams. Honestly, Romo badly needs Williams to be a great downfield threat because there's nobody else on this team that can fulfill that role. Witten will be targeted heavily. The Cowboys will be at their best if they focus on the run with the great combination of Marion Barber and Felix Jones. I maintain my stance on Barber as a low end RB1, and Jones as a very good RB3.
New York Giants - Jacobs and Bradshaw look awesome so far. Just like Barber/Jones above, Jacobs should flirt with RB1 value while Bradshaw is a good RB3 and a steal as a RB4. Eli looks about the same, and only Hicks with his 144/2 production a couple days ago has stood out at the WR position. Hixon has been inconsistent, and I've seen Smith drop at least one big pass as well. They really need someone to step up here, and that person could be Nicks. He's a great WR5, and I regret taking Hixon over him in my draft.
Philadelphia Eagles - The only injury news here is All-Pro guard Shawn Andrews, who despite back problems is saying he'll be ready in week 1. With Peters also there, they could have a dominant offensive line if everyone is healthy. Trouble in QB paradise already? McNabb is already reportedly complaining about the Vick plays disrupting the offensive rhythm. He's going to have to get used to it as Vick wasn't signed to hold a clipboard. Westbrook is ready for week 1, but he's a very dicey RB1 who I'm suggesting to avoid. I expect Westbrook to post some big games with clunkers and a few missed games mixed in. The McCoy hype has died down a bit as the book on him so far is that he goes down too easy. He's definitely going to be involved in the offense, but he's not swiping a healthy Westbrook's job. Jackson remains a fine WR2 after an offseason full of praise. Celek has rebounded after a shoulder injury and is a great TE value.
Washington Redskins - Their line has done a surprisingly good job of protecting Jason Campbell so far, and if they keep it up, he could finally turn in the season they've been waiting for. The problem is still the WR opposite Santana Moss as neither Devin Thomas or Malcolm Kelly has truly stepped up. They'll continue to battle for snaps. Portis is an easy avoid this year...he's clearly wearing down and can't explode like he used to. He needs to be used like a workhorse for fantasy value, and that's not going to again for him.
Chicago Bears - Jay Cutler looked good yesterday night in the harshest of environments...returning to Denver. He heard boos all night, and started slow, but shrugged it off to pass for 144 yards and a TD in the first half. Forte, despite the low YPC so far, looks good, especially in the passing game. He'll catch plenty of passes with the Bears' mediocre WRs. Greg Olsen will also be targeted heavily and is the favorite to lead the team in receiving. Hester will get plenty of looks, but his progression as a WR will determine exactly what he does with them. Nobody else is worth thinking about right now.
Detroit Lions - Culpepper and Stafford have both played pretty well so far, which is encouraging for Calvin Johnson owners. They will continue to battle for the starting job, and it's hard to say who will win. Culpepper has a slight edge in performance so far, but you have to think the front office would like to see Stafford in there ASAP. Kevin Smith also looks solid and is still a highly recommended RB2 in the late3rd/early 4th round.
Green Bay Packers - Rodgers looks awesome so far, and Jermichael Finley has been the talk of camp. He still struggles a bit while blocking, so that will keep Donald Lee as the starter for now, but he'll be on the field on most passing downs and have a few big weeks. He's a high upside TE2. I'd still steer clear of Ryan Grant as I don't believe in his talent despite his solid situation.
Minnesota Vikings - Favre supposedly has a cracked rib now, on top of playing with a slightly torn rotator cuff. You have to wonder if all this is going to be worth it for the Vikings. If Favre can manage to stay upright this season, he should post solid numbers with the weapons around him, but you have to worry about that ability at his age. Luckily for the Vikings skill position players, Rosenfels isn't much of a dropoff at this point, so draft them all as you normally would.
Atlanta Falcons - Much was made of Turner's first two preseason weeks, but please keep in mind he was facing Detroit and a banged-up St. Louis defenses. As I have mentioned in my draft guide, I am not recommending Turner this year. The combination of his 2008 workload, his lack of passing game value, and the increased strength of schedule for the 2009 Falcons has him overvalued by most fantasy outlets. Ryan looks very good and set to embark on a great 2nd season. Tony Gonzalez is starting to look overvalued as I don't think he's going to catch as many passes as people think he will. He's certainly going to help them block, and he's going to deter attention from Roddy White, but I'm wondering how much of a fantasy impact he'll really have this season. He's certainly going to post TE1 numbers, but is he really going to post top 3 TE numbers? I'm thinking no.
Carolina Panthers - Williams looks like a stud so far, and with Jonathan Stewart still nowhere to be found, Williams is a solid mid-1st round pick. I still think Stewart will make an impact, but after Williams season last year combined with Stewart's propensity to get dinged up, I would imagine the coaching staff isn't going to put him in as big of a role as they imagined. Steve Smith has already returned from his shoulder injury and looked just fine last week. I would draft anyone other than these 3 players, and I'd only take Stewart if my first 3 RBs were really solid.
New Orleans Saints - The offense looks magical once again, save Reggie Bush. Bush continues to be held out of action, presumably because of his balky knee. Pierre Thomas also has his own injured knee, but everything points to both being ready to go in week 1. I still highly recommend Thomas as a RB2 in the 3rd round, but not before then so you can take a stud WR first. I'm not drafting Bush, especially as an RB2, unless you're in a PPR league. Shockey looks healthy and should be a great value this year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - I originally liked Derrick Ward, but Caddy is looking good once again, and there's rumor of a 2-2-1 split between Ward, Graham, and Caddy. I didn't like Bryant as a WR2, but if his knee injury allows you to grab him as a WR3, I would consider it. Other than that, it's hard to know WTF is going to happen with this offense. I'd probably stay away from the whole thing.
Arizona Cardinals - As great as everyone on this team is when healthy, I'm going to avoid everyone except perhaps Chris Wells as a RB3 and Hightower as a RB5. Everyone on this team will produce, but at their current inflated values, I'm not tempted to get any of them. Warner is too injury prone to take that high, Fitz is the 1st receiver off the board and I don't think he'll be worth a 1st round pick this year, and Boldin is going as a WR1 despite his yearly injuries. I'd happily take Boldin as a WR2, but that's about it. Leinart is a very clever QB2/3 add at the end of your draft.
San Francisco 49ers - Crabtree continues to hold out and can be safely ignored in all redraft leagues. Gore is looking great by all accounts and is my favorite 1st round RB value this year. Shaun Hill has just about locked up the starting job, although he doesn't excite me. I'm still recommending Josh Morgan as a WR4, however. Vernon Davis is a solid speculatory TE2 add, but you're playing with fire if you make him your TE1 to start the year. It's entirely possible that it could pan out, but that's a bit risky for my taste. Coupling him with a Shockey, Zach Miller, Dustin Keller type talent could give you valuable trade bait later on.
Seattle Seahawks - With their offensive line a mess, I'm staying away from the lot of them. Their passing attack looks reasonable, but when you're relying on Julius Jones and a post-prime Edgerrin James to lead a supposed run-first attack, that's just bad news.
St. Louis Rams - The most impressive player so far is probably Laurent Robinson who has stepped up to win the starting WR job away from Keenan Burton across from Donnie Avery. With Henry Douglas down for the year, I wonder if the Falcons are regretting this trade. The Rams badly need their WRs to step up and make plays to help out Steven Jackson. Avery, despite the foot injury, looks ready to go in week 1. Bulger should be ready too, but we'll see how fast he heals.
AFC
Buffalo Bills - Terrell Owens has reportedly returned to practice, and he blamed his toe injury on his shoes. I'm not wavering from my draft guide and recommending him as a 3rd/4th round WR. The injury doesn't change anything, but I don't see him posting borderline WR1 numbers anymore at his age in the Buffalo offense. His should score, but his receptions and yardage will suffer. This offense will sorely miss blindside tackle Jason Peters.
Miami Dolphins - Everyone is healthy, and Chad Pennington has solidified his starting role with a good preseason, while Chad Henne has been up and down. Brian Hartline has supposedly won the starting WR position, pushing Bess and Camarillo to battle for the slot WR duties, and I expect Bess to win out there as his skills are ideal for the position. Ginn is worth a shot, but I just don't see another impact player in this group.
New England Patriots - Brady suffered a minor shoulder injury after Haynesworth blasted him after a throw, and while he left the game, it's not considered serious. Brady looks to be back to form, and Moss should turn in another elite season. Don't let that shoulder injury affect your view of Brady...he'll be starting in week 1. The RB situation still looks like a mess, but if you can nab Maroney as an RB4/5, he's worth a shot as the most talented member of the group.
New York Jets - Mark Sanchez has won the starting QB job, which shouldn't be surprising. Thomas Jones has struggled to run the ball, and Leon Washington has looked electric. Expect some combination of Jones, Washington, and Greene to start the year, with Washington having the highest upside and my highest recommended pick of the group. Avoid Jones. Cotchery remains a slightly undervalued WR3 with WR2 upside.
Baltimore Ravens - Despite my touting of Ray Rice as the possible goal line back, it appears as though Baltimore will use McGahee in that role for now. McGahee got the goal line carries in preseason week 3, but this might be a committee approach. Ray Rice easily remains the best option of the group here, and McClain is mostly a fullback now. Rice will lead the team in carries barring an injury, and he's also going to dominate 3rd down work as well. McGahee, if had as a late rounder, isn't bad either. I can't recommend anyone else on the team as Flacco has little to throw to, and the receivers are either old (Mason) or have constant injury problems (Clayton, Williams).
Cincinnati Bengals - Chris Henry keeps scoring, and he's certainly making a statement to start on the outside opposite Ochocinco. Coles is better suited for the slot when compared to Henry, and it would allow Cincy to put their 3 best WRs on the field at all times. Palmer looked solid before the injury, and hopefully their offensive line holds up enough to allow him to get the ball down field. Don't allow his ankle injury to affect your view of him, and it might even push him down a round. Palmer, Ochocinco, and Henry (as a WR4, or a boom/bust WR3 if you don't mind the downside) are all recommended. Benson is a low upside RB3, and there's a chance Bernard Scott could overtake him sometime later in the year. Dede Dorsey is also making a case to be the 3rd down RB.
Cleveland Browns - I think it's only a matter of time before Brady Quinn is announced as the starter. He's looked much better, and Braylon Edwards will be better off for it despite him not having a big arm. Edwards has shown improvement and is still recommended in the 5th round. The big news here is that there's a rumor Jamal Lewis might not even make the team, although it would be curious as I doubt they have a hidden RB better than Lewis as a backup unless they feel Lewis would cause a problem for the team in that role. James Davis is making noise, as I've mentioned before, and I bet he swipes Lewis' job before the end of the season. He's a great RB5. Jerome Harrison would be an explosive passing game complement to Davis in this scenario.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Obviously Big Ben's injury is a non-issue after a great performance in preseason week 3. With Parker wearing down and Mendenhall not looking overly impressive, we could see more passing this year than usual from the Steelers. Expect Holmes to be the biggest beneficiary here, although I wouldn't reach for him before the 5th round. Big Ben is a highly recommended QB2. In the backfield I'd still rather own Mendenhall and avoid Parker. Sweed has stepped up and seized the 3rd WR role.
Houston Texans - The offense is looking good, and the goal line back battle is a mess. Brown had it the first two weeks, but Slaton scored from 4 yards out last weekend. Given Brown's injury history, it's hard to imagine him lasting 16 weeks, or even 5 for that matter, but this mess is a drain on Slaton's value. Schaub is a high risk/high reward QB1 who needs a solid QB2 behind him in your lineup. No injuries to mention here.
Indianapolis Colts - The offense is looking insane so far. Manning probably isn't going in the 3rd round anymore after what he's shown in the preseason. I love Reggie Wayne, and I think Dallas Clark will be a stud TE if he can stay healthy. Gonzalez has been a bit up and down, but he should see enough targets to land in the top 24 WRs this season. Donald Brown looks more explosive, but Addai will keep his starting role and earn more carries this year. Addai has a much better chance of staying healthy in a time-share, although I don't like him as a 4th round RB2.
Jacksonville Jaguars - MJD is going to see a huge workload this season. Rashad Jennings, despite a great summer, hasn't stood out in preseason action. Greg Jones isn't much of a threat. Garrard will post his usual numbers, and none of the WRs are really making an impression. This leads me to believe that Holt will be targeted a lot, but he has lost his big play ability, so he only makes for a decent WR3 at best given this. He'll be better in PPR leagues.
Tennessee Titans - Vince Young has turned in a couple good games, showing that he still has the ability to play at the NFL level after a lost 2008 season. He's been inconsistent, but he's shown flashes of good play. This should make the Titans feel comfortable as Collins ages. Kenny Britt has been making waves, and with Nate Washington's injury, he'll have a chance to earn a starting job depending on how long Washington is out. Chris Johnson has struggled with his YPC, and with Mawae out due to an injury, it shows how important he is despite all the talent on that line. Hopefully he'll be ready by week 1. White continues to vulture goal line carries, so nothing has changed. CJ should be a solid RB1, but might not score as often as last year. Britt is a great WR5 speculatory pick, and Washington is a dangerous WR4 selection. Gage should be a solid WR3/4 pick for the season, although he's more of the possession guy.
Denver Broncos - Orton has looked bad more than good, but I'm not worried yet. This whole team is learning a new scheme and how to play with each other, plus Marshall hasn't been on the field yet. Marshall has been suspended for the rest of the preseason, but I would count on him being on the field for week 1. He's a dicey WR2 pick, but if you can land him in the late 5th or somewhere in the 6th round, he's worth taking a shot at there. Scheffler, as expected, seems to be getting lost in the mix. He's a decent speculatory pick as a TE2, but he's probably going to miss Shanahan the most. Royal looks awesome, and he'll be targeted a lot.
Kansas City Chiefs - Matt Cassel is likely out at least for week 1 of the regular season, although since GM Pioli hails from the Belichick tree, it's hard to figure out exactly what's wrong. Rumor has a sprained MCL and ankle. Regardless, this offense scares me. Their offensive line looks awful. I'm starting to regret picking Dwayne Bowe, but they don't have anyone else to throw to. He will dominate targets and should post solid numbers, but I would avoid all other players except for possibly Jamaal Charles as a RB4/5.
Oakland Raiders - Russell is supposedly improving, but it's hard to do such when you have 2 rookies as your WRs, neither of which are particular impressive. The Raiders are set to open up the regular season with DHB and Louis Murphy as the starters, so you know they're going to run as much as any team in the league this season. With McFadden and Bush, and to a much lesser extent Fargas (if he's there week 1), they certainly have the talent to do so. I'm still hoping to see Bush pass Fargas on the depth chart as I feel he's a much better talent, and he pairs well with McFadden.
San Diego Chargers - The offense looks good, as expected. Rivers should turn in a solid season, although his TD will regress some. Vincent Jackson made an amazing one handed catch along the sideline against the Falcons when I watched the first half, and I think he's finally arrived. It's hard to make much of LT's preseason so far, although he didn't particularly impress anyone. I'm still taking Jackson, Gore, and Williams ahead of him. I'd only consider him against guys like Chris Johnson, Slaton, and others in the back end of round 1.
NFC
Dallas Cowboys - Romo is starting to concern me a bit, but he's not playing with Roy Williams. Honestly, Romo badly needs Williams to be a great downfield threat because there's nobody else on this team that can fulfill that role. Witten will be targeted heavily. The Cowboys will be at their best if they focus on the run with the great combination of Marion Barber and Felix Jones. I maintain my stance on Barber as a low end RB1, and Jones as a very good RB3.
New York Giants - Jacobs and Bradshaw look awesome so far. Just like Barber/Jones above, Jacobs should flirt with RB1 value while Bradshaw is a good RB3 and a steal as a RB4. Eli looks about the same, and only Hicks with his 144/2 production a couple days ago has stood out at the WR position. Hixon has been inconsistent, and I've seen Smith drop at least one big pass as well. They really need someone to step up here, and that person could be Nicks. He's a great WR5, and I regret taking Hixon over him in my draft.
Philadelphia Eagles - The only injury news here is All-Pro guard Shawn Andrews, who despite back problems is saying he'll be ready in week 1. With Peters also there, they could have a dominant offensive line if everyone is healthy. Trouble in QB paradise already? McNabb is already reportedly complaining about the Vick plays disrupting the offensive rhythm. He's going to have to get used to it as Vick wasn't signed to hold a clipboard. Westbrook is ready for week 1, but he's a very dicey RB1 who I'm suggesting to avoid. I expect Westbrook to post some big games with clunkers and a few missed games mixed in. The McCoy hype has died down a bit as the book on him so far is that he goes down too easy. He's definitely going to be involved in the offense, but he's not swiping a healthy Westbrook's job. Jackson remains a fine WR2 after an offseason full of praise. Celek has rebounded after a shoulder injury and is a great TE value.
Washington Redskins - Their line has done a surprisingly good job of protecting Jason Campbell so far, and if they keep it up, he could finally turn in the season they've been waiting for. The problem is still the WR opposite Santana Moss as neither Devin Thomas or Malcolm Kelly has truly stepped up. They'll continue to battle for snaps. Portis is an easy avoid this year...he's clearly wearing down and can't explode like he used to. He needs to be used like a workhorse for fantasy value, and that's not going to again for him.
Chicago Bears - Jay Cutler looked good yesterday night in the harshest of environments...returning to Denver. He heard boos all night, and started slow, but shrugged it off to pass for 144 yards and a TD in the first half. Forte, despite the low YPC so far, looks good, especially in the passing game. He'll catch plenty of passes with the Bears' mediocre WRs. Greg Olsen will also be targeted heavily and is the favorite to lead the team in receiving. Hester will get plenty of looks, but his progression as a WR will determine exactly what he does with them. Nobody else is worth thinking about right now.
Detroit Lions - Culpepper and Stafford have both played pretty well so far, which is encouraging for Calvin Johnson owners. They will continue to battle for the starting job, and it's hard to say who will win. Culpepper has a slight edge in performance so far, but you have to think the front office would like to see Stafford in there ASAP. Kevin Smith also looks solid and is still a highly recommended RB2 in the late3rd/early 4th round.
Green Bay Packers - Rodgers looks awesome so far, and Jermichael Finley has been the talk of camp. He still struggles a bit while blocking, so that will keep Donald Lee as the starter for now, but he'll be on the field on most passing downs and have a few big weeks. He's a high upside TE2. I'd still steer clear of Ryan Grant as I don't believe in his talent despite his solid situation.
Minnesota Vikings - Favre supposedly has a cracked rib now, on top of playing with a slightly torn rotator cuff. You have to wonder if all this is going to be worth it for the Vikings. If Favre can manage to stay upright this season, he should post solid numbers with the weapons around him, but you have to worry about that ability at his age. Luckily for the Vikings skill position players, Rosenfels isn't much of a dropoff at this point, so draft them all as you normally would.
Atlanta Falcons - Much was made of Turner's first two preseason weeks, but please keep in mind he was facing Detroit and a banged-up St. Louis defenses. As I have mentioned in my draft guide, I am not recommending Turner this year. The combination of his 2008 workload, his lack of passing game value, and the increased strength of schedule for the 2009 Falcons has him overvalued by most fantasy outlets. Ryan looks very good and set to embark on a great 2nd season. Tony Gonzalez is starting to look overvalued as I don't think he's going to catch as many passes as people think he will. He's certainly going to help them block, and he's going to deter attention from Roddy White, but I'm wondering how much of a fantasy impact he'll really have this season. He's certainly going to post TE1 numbers, but is he really going to post top 3 TE numbers? I'm thinking no.
Carolina Panthers - Williams looks like a stud so far, and with Jonathan Stewart still nowhere to be found, Williams is a solid mid-1st round pick. I still think Stewart will make an impact, but after Williams season last year combined with Stewart's propensity to get dinged up, I would imagine the coaching staff isn't going to put him in as big of a role as they imagined. Steve Smith has already returned from his shoulder injury and looked just fine last week. I would draft anyone other than these 3 players, and I'd only take Stewart if my first 3 RBs were really solid.
New Orleans Saints - The offense looks magical once again, save Reggie Bush. Bush continues to be held out of action, presumably because of his balky knee. Pierre Thomas also has his own injured knee, but everything points to both being ready to go in week 1. I still highly recommend Thomas as a RB2 in the 3rd round, but not before then so you can take a stud WR first. I'm not drafting Bush, especially as an RB2, unless you're in a PPR league. Shockey looks healthy and should be a great value this year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - I originally liked Derrick Ward, but Caddy is looking good once again, and there's rumor of a 2-2-1 split between Ward, Graham, and Caddy. I didn't like Bryant as a WR2, but if his knee injury allows you to grab him as a WR3, I would consider it. Other than that, it's hard to know WTF is going to happen with this offense. I'd probably stay away from the whole thing.
Arizona Cardinals - As great as everyone on this team is when healthy, I'm going to avoid everyone except perhaps Chris Wells as a RB3 and Hightower as a RB5. Everyone on this team will produce, but at their current inflated values, I'm not tempted to get any of them. Warner is too injury prone to take that high, Fitz is the 1st receiver off the board and I don't think he'll be worth a 1st round pick this year, and Boldin is going as a WR1 despite his yearly injuries. I'd happily take Boldin as a WR2, but that's about it. Leinart is a very clever QB2/3 add at the end of your draft.
San Francisco 49ers - Crabtree continues to hold out and can be safely ignored in all redraft leagues. Gore is looking great by all accounts and is my favorite 1st round RB value this year. Shaun Hill has just about locked up the starting job, although he doesn't excite me. I'm still recommending Josh Morgan as a WR4, however. Vernon Davis is a solid speculatory TE2 add, but you're playing with fire if you make him your TE1 to start the year. It's entirely possible that it could pan out, but that's a bit risky for my taste. Coupling him with a Shockey, Zach Miller, Dustin Keller type talent could give you valuable trade bait later on.
Seattle Seahawks - With their offensive line a mess, I'm staying away from the lot of them. Their passing attack looks reasonable, but when you're relying on Julius Jones and a post-prime Edgerrin James to lead a supposed run-first attack, that's just bad news.
St. Louis Rams - The most impressive player so far is probably Laurent Robinson who has stepped up to win the starting WR job away from Keenan Burton across from Donnie Avery. With Henry Douglas down for the year, I wonder if the Falcons are regretting this trade. The Rams badly need their WRs to step up and make plays to help out Steven Jackson. Avery, despite the foot injury, looks ready to go in week 1. Bulger should be ready too, but we'll see how fast he heals.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
DeAngelo Williams, James Davis, and Draft Guide
Jonathan Stewart continues to miss time, and John Fox stated today that it doesn't appear that he's close to making it back onto the field with whatever Achillies problem he's dealing with. That being said, I think DeAngelo Williams is worth taking in the same middle 1st round neighborhood along with Steven Jackson and Frank Gore. He's going to get a good amount of carries in a run-first offense, and he has a beastly line in front of him, although they aren't very deep and cannot afford injuries.
James Davis continues to make noise in Cleveland's camp, and he's someone to take seriously. He's been touted at the most impressive rookie runner this preseason. Jamal Lewis is on his last legs, and at this rate, I expect Davis to overtake Lewis at some point this season. He could be this year's Steve Slaton, and he has emerged as a great RB5 pick to shoot for late in drafts.
I am going through my draft guide and making full updates based on the preseason and recent signings.
James Davis continues to make noise in Cleveland's camp, and he's someone to take seriously. He's been touted at the most impressive rookie runner this preseason. Jamal Lewis is on his last legs, and at this rate, I expect Davis to overtake Lewis at some point this season. He could be this year's Steve Slaton, and he has emerged as a great RB5 pick to shoot for late in drafts.
I am going through my draft guide and making full updates based on the preseason and recent signings.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Seahawks Sign RB Edgerrin James
The Seattle Seahawks have signed former Colts/Cardinals RB Edgerrin James, in a move sure to shake up the fantasy football world.
Fantasy Impact: Seattle's offense sucks. Their offensive line is already banged up, losing two starters in Walter Jones and Chris Spencer, Matt Hasselbeck is on the downside, and they don't really have an explosive option in the passing game. James has supposedly pushed Duckett off of the roster, so he'll probably get up to speed quickly and rotate with Julius Jones. You could snag him as a RB5 if you feel like it, but there's very little upside here. James has shown he's a pedestrian RB at his age that can't make things happen on his own.
Fantasy Impact: Seattle's offense sucks. Their offensive line is already banged up, losing two starters in Walter Jones and Chris Spencer, Matt Hasselbeck is on the downside, and they don't really have an explosive option in the passing game. James has supposedly pushed Duckett off of the roster, so he'll probably get up to speed quickly and rotate with Julius Jones. You could snag him as a RB5 if you feel like it, but there's very little upside here. James has shown he's a pedestrian RB at his age that can't make things happen on his own.
My First Draft
I just completed my first draft, picking from the 6th spot, in a 12 team league. Here are the results:
1) Steven Jackson
2) Calvin Johnson
3) Ronnie Brown
4) Dwayne Bowe
5) Eddie Royal
6) Ray Rice
7) Carson Palmer
8) Ahmad Bradshaw
9) Jeremy Shockey
10) Josh Morgan
11) Kyle Orton
12) Domenik Hixon
13) New York Jets D/ST
14) Brent Celek
15) Michael Bush
16) John Carney
First 4 Rounds: RB and WR time. I didn't get to finalize my 1st round musings from my last post, but I decided to go with Steven Jackson after talking with another friend of mine. I was actually all set to take Gore, but the guy in front of me surprised everyone by going Slaton. I think that's a huge mistake, but we'll see. Jackson has a much improved line in front of him, and also an improved defense with a great defensive leader in head coach Steve Spagnolo. Calvin Johnson fell a few spots because Brees, Brady, and Manning were all gone between my 1st and 2nd round picks. I really wanted Reggie Wayne because he plays with a much better QB than Johnson does, but Johnson's talent is impossible to ignore in the middle of the 2nd round, and I went with him over Steve Smith, Roddy White, and Greg Jennings. He's going to see a ton of targets. My one and only true draft decision was Ronnie Brown versus Pierre Thomas, and I regretted my decision later than night. Brown will probably see more touches, but Thomas is a sleeper to lead the NFL in TDs as the clear goal line back for the Saints. Hopefully the discrepency between the two isn't too large. Finally, Dwayne Bowe fell almost a full round past his ADP, and while I wasn't targeting him, he's much like Calvin Johnson as a clear #1 receiver on a shaky team. I considered Braylon Edwards, but Bowe has been motivated after coach Todd Haley demoted him, and he has responded well to the challenge by looking great in the preseason. Edwards continues to drop passes.
2nd 4 Rounds: WR3, QB, and RB depth. DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal have been shooting up draft boards, so I was elated to land Royal as my WR3. With Brandon Marshall still screwing around, Royal has become the go-to target for the Broncos passing game. A beat writer used a Steve Smith comparison, but I find that to be a stretch as Royal has never shown the same physicality that Smith has. Ray Rice was a must-have RB3 for me as he was even in on a goal line carry last night, and if he maintains 3 down status as the Ravens RB, he's going to be a steal this season. He's already a great pass catcher, and he was a physical runner in college. I had targeted Matt Schaub and Carson Palmer as QBs I wanted in the 7th. Schaub went in the 6th, but I landed my man Palmer in the 7th. His preseason ankle sprain doesn't scare me, but his offensive line does a bit. Still, this is going to be a pass-heavy offense, and with a rejuvenated Ochocinco and Chris Henry, along with Coles, he's got great weapons. Ahmad Bradshaw was another must-have for me as he's going to be the 2008 Derrick Ward, except more explosive. He's been among the best preseason RBs so far. With that, I was set on RB and didn't have to worry about that position anymore.
3rd 4 Rounds: TE, QB2, and WR depth. There was an inexplicable TE run in the 6th that included Greg Olsen (good), Owen Daniels (a reach), and Chris Cooley (WTF). TE targeting died after that, and I happily grabbed Shockey in the 9th. He's had a full, healthy offseason with the Saints and he's showing it with a strong preseason. He's an excellent value this late. I also landed Josh Morgan, who has shot from late round fodder to semi-middle round target. He's a great talent and someone I think will emerge as an every week starter this season, assuming SF gets decent QB play. I then grabbed Kyle Orton, who got a vote of confidence after his abysmal preseason week 1 showing, and he looked much better in week 2. Don't forget that he's a good fit for this offense, has a great offensive line, and if Marshall comes around, he has great targets to throw to. I then landed Domenik Hixon. It was a tossup for me between him and Steve Smith, so I opted for the higher upside as my 5th wideout.
Last 4 Rounds: Defense, Kicker, TE/RB depth. The home stretch! I went a little above and beyond my normal "defense in the 15th" strategy because I had run out of must-have targets, and I liked the Jets the best at this point. They were vastly improved against the run last season, and with former Ravens defensive boss Rex Ryan now the coach, and the addition of Bart Scott, these guys could be fierce this season. The only problem is they face Houston, Indy, and NE twice, which isn't pretty. Oh well. I landed Brent Celek, who had a coming out party in the playoffs last season and should put up some nice numbers in the Eagles offense this year. I needed someone somewhat capable of starting as it's safe to assume Shockey won't play 16 games. I then landed Michael Bush, who has a good chance of pushing Fargas completely off the roster. He's going to complement McFadden, and the Raiders will probably run a lot. Bush had a monster week 17 at Tampa last year as the primary ball carrier, and I don't think the Raiders kept him to bury him on the depth chart. Lastly, I took John Carney. Another owner erroneously selected Garrett Hartley (thanks, retarded out-of-date FF magazines) 2 rounds before, but Carney will kick the first 4 weeks for the Saints and has a great chance to keep the job all year. I'll happily take the Saints kicker as they are going to score a ton.
Final Thoughts: I thought the draft went great, although I'm a bit worried about how the QB play will affect my top two WRs in Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Bowe. Considering the guy I preferred (Reggie Wayne, Chad Ochocinco) was taken right before me in the rounds I selected them, I didn't have much of a choice. I'm also worried I messed up by taking Ronnie Brown over Pierre Thomas...I just like Ronnie Brown too much and I think I let it affect my decision. It's not that Thomas is a better RB than Brown, but he's certainly on a better offense. We'll see how much that matters this season. Other than that, I had my targets mapped out well on my spreadsheet in regards to which rounds they went in, so I stuck to my research. Outside of my top 2 WRs, all the other guys were clearly on my targets list, so I'm very happy with how things turned out. Week 1 can't get here fast enough!
1) Steven Jackson
2) Calvin Johnson
3) Ronnie Brown
4) Dwayne Bowe
5) Eddie Royal
6) Ray Rice
7) Carson Palmer
8) Ahmad Bradshaw
9) Jeremy Shockey
10) Josh Morgan
11) Kyle Orton
12) Domenik Hixon
13) New York Jets D/ST
14) Brent Celek
15) Michael Bush
16) John Carney
First 4 Rounds: RB and WR time. I didn't get to finalize my 1st round musings from my last post, but I decided to go with Steven Jackson after talking with another friend of mine. I was actually all set to take Gore, but the guy in front of me surprised everyone by going Slaton. I think that's a huge mistake, but we'll see. Jackson has a much improved line in front of him, and also an improved defense with a great defensive leader in head coach Steve Spagnolo. Calvin Johnson fell a few spots because Brees, Brady, and Manning were all gone between my 1st and 2nd round picks. I really wanted Reggie Wayne because he plays with a much better QB than Johnson does, but Johnson's talent is impossible to ignore in the middle of the 2nd round, and I went with him over Steve Smith, Roddy White, and Greg Jennings. He's going to see a ton of targets. My one and only true draft decision was Ronnie Brown versus Pierre Thomas, and I regretted my decision later than night. Brown will probably see more touches, but Thomas is a sleeper to lead the NFL in TDs as the clear goal line back for the Saints. Hopefully the discrepency between the two isn't too large. Finally, Dwayne Bowe fell almost a full round past his ADP, and while I wasn't targeting him, he's much like Calvin Johnson as a clear #1 receiver on a shaky team. I considered Braylon Edwards, but Bowe has been motivated after coach Todd Haley demoted him, and he has responded well to the challenge by looking great in the preseason. Edwards continues to drop passes.
2nd 4 Rounds: WR3, QB, and RB depth. DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal have been shooting up draft boards, so I was elated to land Royal as my WR3. With Brandon Marshall still screwing around, Royal has become the go-to target for the Broncos passing game. A beat writer used a Steve Smith comparison, but I find that to be a stretch as Royal has never shown the same physicality that Smith has. Ray Rice was a must-have RB3 for me as he was even in on a goal line carry last night, and if he maintains 3 down status as the Ravens RB, he's going to be a steal this season. He's already a great pass catcher, and he was a physical runner in college. I had targeted Matt Schaub and Carson Palmer as QBs I wanted in the 7th. Schaub went in the 6th, but I landed my man Palmer in the 7th. His preseason ankle sprain doesn't scare me, but his offensive line does a bit. Still, this is going to be a pass-heavy offense, and with a rejuvenated Ochocinco and Chris Henry, along with Coles, he's got great weapons. Ahmad Bradshaw was another must-have for me as he's going to be the 2008 Derrick Ward, except more explosive. He's been among the best preseason RBs so far. With that, I was set on RB and didn't have to worry about that position anymore.
3rd 4 Rounds: TE, QB2, and WR depth. There was an inexplicable TE run in the 6th that included Greg Olsen (good), Owen Daniels (a reach), and Chris Cooley (WTF). TE targeting died after that, and I happily grabbed Shockey in the 9th. He's had a full, healthy offseason with the Saints and he's showing it with a strong preseason. He's an excellent value this late. I also landed Josh Morgan, who has shot from late round fodder to semi-middle round target. He's a great talent and someone I think will emerge as an every week starter this season, assuming SF gets decent QB play. I then grabbed Kyle Orton, who got a vote of confidence after his abysmal preseason week 1 showing, and he looked much better in week 2. Don't forget that he's a good fit for this offense, has a great offensive line, and if Marshall comes around, he has great targets to throw to. I then landed Domenik Hixon. It was a tossup for me between him and Steve Smith, so I opted for the higher upside as my 5th wideout.
Last 4 Rounds: Defense, Kicker, TE/RB depth. The home stretch! I went a little above and beyond my normal "defense in the 15th" strategy because I had run out of must-have targets, and I liked the Jets the best at this point. They were vastly improved against the run last season, and with former Ravens defensive boss Rex Ryan now the coach, and the addition of Bart Scott, these guys could be fierce this season. The only problem is they face Houston, Indy, and NE twice, which isn't pretty. Oh well. I landed Brent Celek, who had a coming out party in the playoffs last season and should put up some nice numbers in the Eagles offense this year. I needed someone somewhat capable of starting as it's safe to assume Shockey won't play 16 games. I then landed Michael Bush, who has a good chance of pushing Fargas completely off the roster. He's going to complement McFadden, and the Raiders will probably run a lot. Bush had a monster week 17 at Tampa last year as the primary ball carrier, and I don't think the Raiders kept him to bury him on the depth chart. Lastly, I took John Carney. Another owner erroneously selected Garrett Hartley (thanks, retarded out-of-date FF magazines) 2 rounds before, but Carney will kick the first 4 weeks for the Saints and has a great chance to keep the job all year. I'll happily take the Saints kicker as they are going to score a ton.
Final Thoughts: I thought the draft went great, although I'm a bit worried about how the QB play will affect my top two WRs in Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Bowe. Considering the guy I preferred (Reggie Wayne, Chad Ochocinco) was taken right before me in the rounds I selected them, I didn't have much of a choice. I'm also worried I messed up by taking Ronnie Brown over Pierre Thomas...I just like Ronnie Brown too much and I think I let it affect my decision. It's not that Thomas is a better RB than Brown, but he's certainly on a better offense. We'll see how much that matters this season. Other than that, I had my targets mapped out well on my spreadsheet in regards to which rounds they went in, so I stuck to my research. Outside of my top 2 WRs, all the other guys were clearly on my targets list, so I'm very happy with how things turned out. Week 1 can't get here fast enough!
Thursday, August 20, 2009
My 1st Round Conundrum
So I drew the #6 pick in my local fantasy football league, and much like last year at the #3 spot, I'm sifting through a bunch of players. Here are the guys that I've thought through:
LaDainian Tomlinson - I have already removed him from consideration. He doesn't possess the skills any more to be dominant, so he has a limited ceiling, and they're not paying Sproles $6 million under the franchise tag this year to only use him as a true backup. Plus, at age 30 with all the carries he's had in his career, his downside is pretty bad. His surrounding offense looks very good again, but I'd much rather hop off the bandwagon a year early than a year late. This is in line with what I wrote for my draft guide.
Steven Jackson - The 375 f/carry study that I'm a firm believer in shows a frightening trend of RBs that never return to dominance after a season with that many touches (375 carries + (1/2) * receptions). 80% of the RBs who had a season with that many touches barely get to the RB1 level again, and they almost never return to top 5 RB status. Sure enough, Jackson has missed 4 games in each of the past two seasons with leg injuries after hitting that mark in 2006. While he's been plenty productive while on the field, he hasn't been reliable. Plus, his surrounding offense looks awful. Bulger and top receiver (ha) Donnie Avery are both out already with a fractured pinkie and a fractured foot, respectively. The offensive line has improved, especially in run blocking, but how the hell are these guys going to move the ball and get a lead with such a horrible passing attack?
Chris Johnson - A great talent behind a great offensive line with an improved array of receiving talent (signed WR Nate Washington, drafted WR Kenny Britt, emergence of TE Jared Cook), but LenWhale hosses many TDs and is a drain on CJ's fantasy value. Still, very much a consideration.
DeAngelo Williams - I love his talent, and his season last year was very much real despite the fluky 20 TDs that won't be repeated. He also has a very good offensive line, and Delhomme/Smith will keep defenses out of the box. Jonathan Stewart is an even bigger threat to DWill than LenWhale is to Johnson, but Stewart couldn't stay healthy in college, and he wasn't healthy as much as he should have been last year despite being the lesser part of the committee. He didn't play last week and is continuing to miss entire practices with some undisclosed Achillies injury. DWill is definitely under consideration with Stewart still missing time.
Steve Slaton - I just don't like him that much despite him playing behind a solid offensive line on a great offense. Plus, Houston has been looking all offseason for a short yardage/goal line back, and currently have Chris Brown taking goal line carries now. Brown is hardly reliable, but it's clear that Houston prefers to not use Slaton at the goal line, and in that case, I'd rather have Chris Johnson.
Brian Westbrook - See LT. Still has great skills and will be playing for a very good offense, but I jumped off the train last year and I'm not hopping back on it this year. I don't want to own him the year he goes south for good, and he's coming off of 2 major offseason surgeries (knee, ankle). He'll be productive when on the field, but he's not going to be on the field for 16 games.
Frank Gore - Usually taken in the late 1st/early 2nd, I am hardly opposed to drafting someone earlier than ADP indicates as evidenced by my Barber pick at #3 last year. Gore is reportedly in excellent shape, and he's going to be the focal point of the offense under Mike Singletary. Much like Steven Jackson, he does everything well and doesn't have much talent behind him to push for carries. Gore's line is questionable, but he's been running behind a questionable line for years. The passing attack will improve despite Martz leaving town. Durability remains a concern after multiple ACL tears in college and several nagging injuries the past two years, but I honestly don't see much difference between him and Steven Jackson despite about 7-8 picks between the two.
Out: LT, Westbrook, Slaton
Questionable: Jackson, Williams
In: Johnson, Gore
LaDainian Tomlinson - I have already removed him from consideration. He doesn't possess the skills any more to be dominant, so he has a limited ceiling, and they're not paying Sproles $6 million under the franchise tag this year to only use him as a true backup. Plus, at age 30 with all the carries he's had in his career, his downside is pretty bad. His surrounding offense looks very good again, but I'd much rather hop off the bandwagon a year early than a year late. This is in line with what I wrote for my draft guide.
Steven Jackson - The 375 f/carry study that I'm a firm believer in shows a frightening trend of RBs that never return to dominance after a season with that many touches (375 carries + (1/2) * receptions). 80% of the RBs who had a season with that many touches barely get to the RB1 level again, and they almost never return to top 5 RB status. Sure enough, Jackson has missed 4 games in each of the past two seasons with leg injuries after hitting that mark in 2006. While he's been plenty productive while on the field, he hasn't been reliable. Plus, his surrounding offense looks awful. Bulger and top receiver (ha) Donnie Avery are both out already with a fractured pinkie and a fractured foot, respectively. The offensive line has improved, especially in run blocking, but how the hell are these guys going to move the ball and get a lead with such a horrible passing attack?
Chris Johnson - A great talent behind a great offensive line with an improved array of receiving talent (signed WR Nate Washington, drafted WR Kenny Britt, emergence of TE Jared Cook), but LenWhale hosses many TDs and is a drain on CJ's fantasy value. Still, very much a consideration.
DeAngelo Williams - I love his talent, and his season last year was very much real despite the fluky 20 TDs that won't be repeated. He also has a very good offensive line, and Delhomme/Smith will keep defenses out of the box. Jonathan Stewart is an even bigger threat to DWill than LenWhale is to Johnson, but Stewart couldn't stay healthy in college, and he wasn't healthy as much as he should have been last year despite being the lesser part of the committee. He didn't play last week and is continuing to miss entire practices with some undisclosed Achillies injury. DWill is definitely under consideration with Stewart still missing time.
Steve Slaton - I just don't like him that much despite him playing behind a solid offensive line on a great offense. Plus, Houston has been looking all offseason for a short yardage/goal line back, and currently have Chris Brown taking goal line carries now. Brown is hardly reliable, but it's clear that Houston prefers to not use Slaton at the goal line, and in that case, I'd rather have Chris Johnson.
Brian Westbrook - See LT. Still has great skills and will be playing for a very good offense, but I jumped off the train last year and I'm not hopping back on it this year. I don't want to own him the year he goes south for good, and he's coming off of 2 major offseason surgeries (knee, ankle). He'll be productive when on the field, but he's not going to be on the field for 16 games.
Frank Gore - Usually taken in the late 1st/early 2nd, I am hardly opposed to drafting someone earlier than ADP indicates as evidenced by my Barber pick at #3 last year. Gore is reportedly in excellent shape, and he's going to be the focal point of the offense under Mike Singletary. Much like Steven Jackson, he does everything well and doesn't have much talent behind him to push for carries. Gore's line is questionable, but he's been running behind a questionable line for years. The passing attack will improve despite Martz leaving town. Durability remains a concern after multiple ACL tears in college and several nagging injuries the past two years, but I honestly don't see much difference between him and Steven Jackson despite about 7-8 picks between the two.
Out: LT, Westbrook, Slaton
Questionable: Jackson, Williams
In: Johnson, Gore
Vikings Sign QB Brett Favre
Here we go again. Brett Favre has successfully avoided most of training camp and will join the Vikings immediately. Given he knows Childress' playbook as well as anyone in the league, it's not a concern for him knowledge-wise, but he's going to need to use all of this time to build a chemistry with Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin, and the other receivers as he's obviously never thrown to them before.
At this stage in Favre's career, there is some debate on whether or not he's actually an upgrade over Sage Rosenfels. Rosenfels has a good arm, is aggressive, but often makes poor decisions trying to make a play when something isn't there. Sounds a bit like Favre, no? Favre had surgery on his biceps to eliminate the cause of his problems down the stretch last season, and by early accounts, he's still throwing a laser. His decision making is still questionable, but I have to think that the team believes in Favre as a leader more than Rosenfels, so he's at least an upgrade in that area.
Fantasy Impact: Favre will have the best running back behind him that he's ever played with, a great 3rd down RB in Chester Taylor, an excellent downfield threats in Bernard Berrian, and then a complete wildcard in Percy Harvin who will line up all over and make big plays. Shiancoe is also a capable tight end. Favre is certainly not without weapons, but this is a run-first team. I think Favre makes for a solid QB2 as someone who can fill in reliably, but he's not a difference maker anymore. I would easily take Favre over guys like Hasselbeck, Pennington, Bulger, and Delhomme.
At this stage in Favre's career, there is some debate on whether or not he's actually an upgrade over Sage Rosenfels. Rosenfels has a good arm, is aggressive, but often makes poor decisions trying to make a play when something isn't there. Sounds a bit like Favre, no? Favre had surgery on his biceps to eliminate the cause of his problems down the stretch last season, and by early accounts, he's still throwing a laser. His decision making is still questionable, but I have to think that the team believes in Favre as a leader more than Rosenfels, so he's at least an upgrade in that area.
Fantasy Impact: Favre will have the best running back behind him that he's ever played with, a great 3rd down RB in Chester Taylor, an excellent downfield threats in Bernard Berrian, and then a complete wildcard in Percy Harvin who will line up all over and make big plays. Shiancoe is also a capable tight end. Favre is certainly not without weapons, but this is a run-first team. I think Favre makes for a solid QB2 as someone who can fill in reliably, but he's not a difference maker anymore. I would easily take Favre over guys like Hasselbeck, Pennington, Bulger, and Delhomme.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
More Preseason Player Updates
I wanted to do another list of player updates, but this time I'm going to sort by position.
QB:
Tom Brady - Brady tore is up in his return to live action, so you can feel safe drafting him at his current ADP. He's going to go right back to being an elite QB, although you can't completely rule out a semi-slow start, but it's looking less likely after how sharp he looked in his first preseason game.
Mark Sanchez / Kellen Clemens - Sanchez looked great in the preseason opener, but he's reportedly struggled in practice since then while Clemens has looked much better. If Sanchez looks great again against Baltimore this weekend, he'll probably win the job at that point.
Carson Palmer - Palmer's arm looked great this weekend, but a sack lead to a sprained ankle. It looks to be more serious than the team is letting on, but he appears to be on track to start week 1. Still, more missed practices and preseason games after missing a lot of time last year is going to increase the probability of a slow start.
Brady Quinn / Derek Anderson - Quinn appears to be another strong performance away from winning the job. Of concern is Braylon Edwards dropping yet another pass...this time a sure TD. If he can't become more reliable, it won't matter who's starting as they won't be able to be effective with an unreliable top target with little behind him.
Ben Roethlisberger - He appears to be close to clearing his name in the supposed rape case and looks safe to draft as solid QB2/low end QB1.
Kyle Orton - Orton bombed in his preseason debut by tossing 3 INTs, including one at the goal line. I'm not wavering on him as a possible sleeper this year after only one bad game, but another bad performance or two will put him on my avoid list as a QB2. Also of concern is the lack of Brandon Marshall's participation so far due to injuries.
Matt Cassel - He's supposedly stinking up the practice field, and that only solidifies my opinion that he's a QB to avoid this year.
Byron Leftwich / Luke McCown - There has been very conflicting reports as to this battle so far, but it appears as though Leftwich will have the leg up. This only matters for 2 QB leagues as neither are draftable in 1 QB leagues.
Alex Smith / Shaun Hill - This appears to be the closest battle thus far as it's hard to determine if either have the lead. Hill has always looked solid but never spectacular in games while Smith has the higher upside in terms of potential. This one might go down to the 3rd preseason game.
Marc Bulger - Bulger fractured his pinkie and will likely be out for the remainder of the preseason. This doesn't help at all as he's learning a new offense with mostly inexperienced receivers. This further cements avoiding him on draft day.
RB:
Ricky Williams - Williams, despite two very nice runs, looked a bit slow and unexplosive in the preseason. Odds are his 32 year old body is slowing down, and this further proves that Ronnie Brown will move back into a true feature RB role with Williams being a decent backup.
Pats RB Mess - This is yet another mess this season, but I still think that Maroney is the back to own with a low ADP and the highest upside of the NE backfield.
Ray Rice - Rice looked outstanding in his preaseason debut and appears to be the featured RB for the offense this season. He has taken the lead among the 3 headed monster and is the back to own in Baltimore. His ADP has shot up to 70.3, or 6th round/10th pick. He's no longer the great sleeper he was when I wrote my draft guide, but he's an outstanding RB3 in the 6th round.
Steve Slaton / Chris Brown - As expected, Brown entered in the Texans first goal line situation and punched one in from 2 yards out. This hurts Slaton's value as he is no longer the goal line RB, and I would not want to take him as my RB1 in the first round in a non-PPR league.
Joseph Addai / Donald Brown - Brown looked awesome in his first preseason game, supporting the hype of this well-rounded RB. It's hard to believe that he'll unseat Addai as the starter given what occurred 3 years ago with Rhodes/Addai, but he's certainly in line for close to half the carries, and he's being drafted at 85.6 on average as opposed to Addai at 44. Addai has the bigger name, but Brown is a far better value.
Justin Fargas / Darren McFadden / Michael Bush - No movement here yet, but McFadden looked spry and explosive in his preseason debut, showing that he's over the toe injuries he suffered last year. McFadden is going to start sooner or later, and Bush is well worth investing as a RB5.
Ahmad Bradshaw - Bradshaw looked phenominal in his preseason debut, and he was a favorite of one of my favorite fantasy writers, Matt Waldman at FFToday, when he was drafted. Waldman is an outstanding rookie scouter, so I take his analysis seriously. With Ward gone, Bradshaw will be more than just Jacobs backup, and with an ADP of 139.5 (sure to rise some after his preseason debut), he's an absolute steal.
Brian Westbrook - Westbrook is back to practicing, so he looks safe to draft if you're into high risk/high upside 1st round fantasy RBs. I'll pass and opt for super talented backup LeSean McCoy instead at his 104.7 ADP.
DeAngelo Williams / Jonathan Stewart - Williams looked like his 2008 self in the preseason opener while Stewart was on the sideline with his rumored Achillies-related injury. Stewart is back to not practicing, so Williams is starting to look safer to draft in the first round. Stewart has a history of leg-related injuries (toe in college, various dings last season), and the fact he isn't even practicing is allowing Williams to put some distance in between them. The fact they aren't commenting on this problem is starting to become a legit concern.
Tim Hightower / Chris Wells - Wells reinjured his ankle again at practice, and Hightower is going to start week 1 barring a miracle. Hightower has improved per camp reports, and he's already anchored into a permanent 3rd down role. Hightower is starting to look like the RB to draft here, especially at the much lower ADP of 96.6.
WR:
Jerricho Cotchery - Cotchery is starting to become a desirable WR3 target the more I think about it. He's the clear-cut top option for the Jets passing game, and while they are most definitely a run-first team, there's no reason he can't post similar numbers to what Derrick Mason did last season in the Ravens offense.
Brandon Marshall - Marshall has been missing practices with a supposed hamstring injury, has admitted not knowing the playbook, and is missing practices with a new quarterback. Marshall cannot be drafted as a WR1 right now despite his upside because he's destined for a slow start at this rate. He has the time and the talent to rebound, but his continued rift with the Broncos team is also a concern. He's better as a WR2.
Dwayne Bowe - Much has been made of his demotion to 5 billionth string on the Chiefs depth chart, but Todd Haley simply wants to see a better work ethic from Bowe to match his talent level. He dominated in his first preseason action, and there's no reason to think he won't be starting soon. Cassel's struggles are of a greater concern than Bowe's current depth chart position.
Chaz Schilens - Schilens was just starting to emerge as a sleeper option in fantasy leagues prior to fracturing his foot. He's safely on the don't draft list, but someone to keep in mind as the season gets going.
Devin Hester - Hester dominated targets from Jay Cutler and appears to have the ability to really produce nice numbers as Cutler's top WR target. His upside is limited by his inexperience at the position, but he has the speed for big plays and should be a solid WR3 in non-PPR leagues.
Steve Smith - Smith suffered a shoulder injury in practice and missed the first preseason game, but he's back practicing in a limited fashion and will be ready for week 1. He's a solid WR1.
Antonio Bryant - Bryant underwent knee surgery for a torn meniscus, and while he appears on target to start week 1, he'll be playing in a new offense with a new QB. The reasons to avoid drafting him at his late 4th/early 5th round ADP grow.
Donnie Avery - Much like Schilens, and actually a couple days before, Avery fractured his foot. He's transitioning to a new offense and needed the practice time, and he's unlikely to be ready for the first week or two of the regular season, so he's a WR4 at best.
TE:
Dallas Clark - Clark suffered a slight concussion in practice, but has returned. He has a history of concussions, so this bears watching, but he's safe to draft. Just beware of his lengthy injury history and understand that a reliable TE2 is much more necessary with him than the other top 5 TEs.
QB:
Tom Brady - Brady tore is up in his return to live action, so you can feel safe drafting him at his current ADP. He's going to go right back to being an elite QB, although you can't completely rule out a semi-slow start, but it's looking less likely after how sharp he looked in his first preseason game.
Mark Sanchez / Kellen Clemens - Sanchez looked great in the preseason opener, but he's reportedly struggled in practice since then while Clemens has looked much better. If Sanchez looks great again against Baltimore this weekend, he'll probably win the job at that point.
Carson Palmer - Palmer's arm looked great this weekend, but a sack lead to a sprained ankle. It looks to be more serious than the team is letting on, but he appears to be on track to start week 1. Still, more missed practices and preseason games after missing a lot of time last year is going to increase the probability of a slow start.
Brady Quinn / Derek Anderson - Quinn appears to be another strong performance away from winning the job. Of concern is Braylon Edwards dropping yet another pass...this time a sure TD. If he can't become more reliable, it won't matter who's starting as they won't be able to be effective with an unreliable top target with little behind him.
Ben Roethlisberger - He appears to be close to clearing his name in the supposed rape case and looks safe to draft as solid QB2/low end QB1.
Kyle Orton - Orton bombed in his preseason debut by tossing 3 INTs, including one at the goal line. I'm not wavering on him as a possible sleeper this year after only one bad game, but another bad performance or two will put him on my avoid list as a QB2. Also of concern is the lack of Brandon Marshall's participation so far due to injuries.
Matt Cassel - He's supposedly stinking up the practice field, and that only solidifies my opinion that he's a QB to avoid this year.
Byron Leftwich / Luke McCown - There has been very conflicting reports as to this battle so far, but it appears as though Leftwich will have the leg up. This only matters for 2 QB leagues as neither are draftable in 1 QB leagues.
Alex Smith / Shaun Hill - This appears to be the closest battle thus far as it's hard to determine if either have the lead. Hill has always looked solid but never spectacular in games while Smith has the higher upside in terms of potential. This one might go down to the 3rd preseason game.
Marc Bulger - Bulger fractured his pinkie and will likely be out for the remainder of the preseason. This doesn't help at all as he's learning a new offense with mostly inexperienced receivers. This further cements avoiding him on draft day.
RB:
Ricky Williams - Williams, despite two very nice runs, looked a bit slow and unexplosive in the preseason. Odds are his 32 year old body is slowing down, and this further proves that Ronnie Brown will move back into a true feature RB role with Williams being a decent backup.
Pats RB Mess - This is yet another mess this season, but I still think that Maroney is the back to own with a low ADP and the highest upside of the NE backfield.
Ray Rice - Rice looked outstanding in his preaseason debut and appears to be the featured RB for the offense this season. He has taken the lead among the 3 headed monster and is the back to own in Baltimore. His ADP has shot up to 70.3, or 6th round/10th pick. He's no longer the great sleeper he was when I wrote my draft guide, but he's an outstanding RB3 in the 6th round.
Steve Slaton / Chris Brown - As expected, Brown entered in the Texans first goal line situation and punched one in from 2 yards out. This hurts Slaton's value as he is no longer the goal line RB, and I would not want to take him as my RB1 in the first round in a non-PPR league.
Joseph Addai / Donald Brown - Brown looked awesome in his first preseason game, supporting the hype of this well-rounded RB. It's hard to believe that he'll unseat Addai as the starter given what occurred 3 years ago with Rhodes/Addai, but he's certainly in line for close to half the carries, and he's being drafted at 85.6 on average as opposed to Addai at 44. Addai has the bigger name, but Brown is a far better value.
Justin Fargas / Darren McFadden / Michael Bush - No movement here yet, but McFadden looked spry and explosive in his preseason debut, showing that he's over the toe injuries he suffered last year. McFadden is going to start sooner or later, and Bush is well worth investing as a RB5.
Ahmad Bradshaw - Bradshaw looked phenominal in his preseason debut, and he was a favorite of one of my favorite fantasy writers, Matt Waldman at FFToday, when he was drafted. Waldman is an outstanding rookie scouter, so I take his analysis seriously. With Ward gone, Bradshaw will be more than just Jacobs backup, and with an ADP of 139.5 (sure to rise some after his preseason debut), he's an absolute steal.
Brian Westbrook - Westbrook is back to practicing, so he looks safe to draft if you're into high risk/high upside 1st round fantasy RBs. I'll pass and opt for super talented backup LeSean McCoy instead at his 104.7 ADP.
DeAngelo Williams / Jonathan Stewart - Williams looked like his 2008 self in the preseason opener while Stewart was on the sideline with his rumored Achillies-related injury. Stewart is back to not practicing, so Williams is starting to look safer to draft in the first round. Stewart has a history of leg-related injuries (toe in college, various dings last season), and the fact he isn't even practicing is allowing Williams to put some distance in between them. The fact they aren't commenting on this problem is starting to become a legit concern.
Tim Hightower / Chris Wells - Wells reinjured his ankle again at practice, and Hightower is going to start week 1 barring a miracle. Hightower has improved per camp reports, and he's already anchored into a permanent 3rd down role. Hightower is starting to look like the RB to draft here, especially at the much lower ADP of 96.6.
WR:
Jerricho Cotchery - Cotchery is starting to become a desirable WR3 target the more I think about it. He's the clear-cut top option for the Jets passing game, and while they are most definitely a run-first team, there's no reason he can't post similar numbers to what Derrick Mason did last season in the Ravens offense.
Brandon Marshall - Marshall has been missing practices with a supposed hamstring injury, has admitted not knowing the playbook, and is missing practices with a new quarterback. Marshall cannot be drafted as a WR1 right now despite his upside because he's destined for a slow start at this rate. He has the time and the talent to rebound, but his continued rift with the Broncos team is also a concern. He's better as a WR2.
Dwayne Bowe - Much has been made of his demotion to 5 billionth string on the Chiefs depth chart, but Todd Haley simply wants to see a better work ethic from Bowe to match his talent level. He dominated in his first preseason action, and there's no reason to think he won't be starting soon. Cassel's struggles are of a greater concern than Bowe's current depth chart position.
Chaz Schilens - Schilens was just starting to emerge as a sleeper option in fantasy leagues prior to fracturing his foot. He's safely on the don't draft list, but someone to keep in mind as the season gets going.
Devin Hester - Hester dominated targets from Jay Cutler and appears to have the ability to really produce nice numbers as Cutler's top WR target. His upside is limited by his inexperience at the position, but he has the speed for big plays and should be a solid WR3 in non-PPR leagues.
Steve Smith - Smith suffered a shoulder injury in practice and missed the first preseason game, but he's back practicing in a limited fashion and will be ready for week 1. He's a solid WR1.
Antonio Bryant - Bryant underwent knee surgery for a torn meniscus, and while he appears on target to start week 1, he'll be playing in a new offense with a new QB. The reasons to avoid drafting him at his late 4th/early 5th round ADP grow.
Donnie Avery - Much like Schilens, and actually a couple days before, Avery fractured his foot. He's transitioning to a new offense and needed the practice time, and he's unlikely to be ready for the first week or two of the regular season, so he's a WR4 at best.
TE:
Dallas Clark - Clark suffered a slight concussion in practice, but has returned. He has a history of concussions, so this bears watching, but he's safe to draft. Just beware of his lengthy injury history and understand that a reliable TE2 is much more necessary with him than the other top 5 TEs.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Panthers WR Steve Smith Injures Shoulder
Panthers WR Steve Smith injured his shoulder earlier this week, but unfortunately the Panthers are playing coy about the severity of it. He's their only proven weapon in the passing game as it stands right now, so his health is a must if the Panthers are going to reach the playoffs again this season.
Fantasy Impact: Smith was already not high on my list of WR1s as I feel he'll regress a bit this season, and this injury doesn't help. There's nothing to indicate this is a serious injury at this point, but little is known and only speculation has been tossed around at this point. Keep an eye on this, but if you really like Smith, I wouldn't let this deter you.
Fantasy Impact: Smith was already not high on my list of WR1s as I feel he'll regress a bit this season, and this injury doesn't help. There's nothing to indicate this is a serious injury at this point, but little is known and only speculation has been tossed around at this point. Keep an eye on this, but if you really like Smith, I wouldn't let this deter you.
Monday, August 10, 2009
Training Camp Heroes And Zeroes
We finally have our first preseason game under our belt with Tennessee topping Buffalo in the first game of the season. Nothing stood out from that particular game other than how far Vince Young has fallen. However, there have been a couple players making noise in training camp thus far, and I'd like to make mention of them here. Now there's going to be a ton of "he looks quicker, faster, and stronger!" reports coming out of camps, but there are certain players that make enough noise to actually start believing the reports.
ROOKIES
Percy Harvin - I was originally skeptical about what type of role that Harvin will have, but he has reportedly been outstanding so far in training camp. He has the eye of the coaching staff, and he's a true playmaker...someone they really needed to keep attention off of Adrian Peterson. With the aggressive Sage Rosenfels likely the week 1 starter, Harvin could very well overtake both Berrian and Sydney Rice to be the top pass catcher on this team. Minnesota will constantly move him around and attempt to get him the ball both in space and down the field. I think he has emerged as a very good WR4 candidate to target, but he's a risky WR3 for those who start 3 WRs. I'd rather have him proven his role the first couple weeks, and then move him into my starting lineup.
Knowshon Moreno - Moreno missed a bit of time getting his contract hammered out, but Denver is already throwing him in with the first string offense. He hasn't won the starting job yet, but that's more of a "when" than an "if". He's an ideal RB3 candidate who has a very good chance to post RB2 numbers for most of the season. If you're risky and into taking QB and WRs high, you can target him as your RB2.
Chris Wells / Tim Hightower - Wells signed quickly, but then injured his ankle in his first post-contract practice, and in his absence, Hightower is showing improvement over his problems last season with indecisive running and poor pad level. He certainly has the talent to make some noise, and supposedly he is distancing himself from Wells at the current time. Hightower has a chance to start in week 1, which would crush Wells' value and upside. There's still plenty of time for things to change, but I certainly wouldn't go making Wells my RB2 in any draft.
Michael Crabtree - I already had him rated as overrated, but his holdout is crushing his fantasy value. He's threatening to sit out the 2009 season, but we've already seen what damage that can do when Mike Williams did it (for a different reason), and I don't think he's stupid enough to actually go through with it. He's fighting an uphill climb to be paid more than his draft slot is worth, and SF is intelligently not budging. He's not going to start in week 1, and it may take an injury ahead of him for him to even matter in fantasy leagues this year. Avoid him in redraft leagues.
Matthew Stafford - Stafford continues to win over the new Detroit coaching staff with his intelligence, and we all know he has a cannon for an arm. He's going to be inconsistent like most rookie QBs, but if he ends up winning the starting job, which I think he will at this point, he'll be a guy to keep a close eye on for possible QB2 value. He has a chance to be more like Matt Ryan than Joe Flacco as he'll be playing on a slightly more aggressive passing offense without a dominant defense supporting him. This would be good news for Calvin Johnson as his big arm will fit Johnson's dominant ability to get downfield, and it would allow the chemistry to grow immediately from week 1.
VETERANS
Chris Johnson / LenDale White - As evidenced last night, White is still the go-to guy for the goal line work. He entered the game as soon as the Titans got inside the Bills 10 yard line, and he scored on his 2nd carry. This should put to rest any thoughts that CJ will snipe goal line carries from White this season, and further enforces that the Titans will employ the same running game strategy as last season, with CJ probably getting a few more touches. CJ remains a solid 1st round pick, but his TD totals will suffer a bit compared to the other RBs drafted around him, except for Slaton who looks to be in a very similar situation.
DeSean Jackson - Jackson is looking like the best player at Eagles camp. He suffered a hyperextneded knee over the weekend, but it appears to be a minor injury and nothing something that will cost him much time. Jackson is likely to lead the Eagles is receiving, and while his upside is limited by the spread-the-wealth nature of the Eagles offense, he's emerging as a very interesting WR2 that can be had once the bigger names are off the board.
Donnie Avery - Avery suffered a stress fracture in his foot that will reportedly keep him out 4-6 weeks. He was an intrguing WR3 before this news, but his status for week 1 is in doubt, and the lost time in a new offense is going to hurt once he gets back out on the field. I wouldn't be taking him as anything more than a WR4 right now.
Roddy White - Just a quick note here that his small holdout resulted in a nice payday, and that he's practicing again. I hadn't mentioned it as I didn't see it as a problem, and luckily it turned out that way. Don't change your thoughts on him because of a missed week or so...he's a WR1 who could possibly make the jump to elite this season.
Brandon Marshall - Marshall suffered some sort of injury in practice last week, and rumor has been that it's a setback with his surgically repaired hip. With new coach McDaniels coming from the Belichick coaching tree, don't expect to hear much of anything about what's actually wrong. This is a big concern as he's expected to miss practice this week. Keep a close eye on him.
Kevin Jones - There have been glowing reports of Jones all offseason, and this jives with the fact that Jones is still a very talented RB who's now over a year removed from a torn ACL. He should be back to 100%, and he's an important piece of the Bears offense to help keep Forte fresh this season. He's an excellent Forte handcuff.
Vernon Davis - He's already gotten into one training camp fight, and there's a rumor that he started a 2nd one. For a player who's maturity is holding him back, this is a serious concern. I still think he's worth a stab as a TE2, but those waiting on TEs this year should probably avoid relying on him as a starter. He certainly has the talent and the offensive system to be a TE1 this year, but it appears he's yet to grow up.
Greg Olsen - He continues to receive positive reviews and will be a focal point of the Bears passing attack this season. He's almost certain to take the next step, and he could even flirt with elite TE1 value this season.
Dallas Clark - Colts writers are raving about the chemistry Manning is showing with Clark, and I'm inclined to think that Clark is destined to hang with the great fantasy TEs despite his injury risk. Gonzalez will battle for more targets than the declining Harrison did last season, but Clark is arguably the 2nd option behind Wayne.
ROOKIES
Percy Harvin - I was originally skeptical about what type of role that Harvin will have, but he has reportedly been outstanding so far in training camp. He has the eye of the coaching staff, and he's a true playmaker...someone they really needed to keep attention off of Adrian Peterson. With the aggressive Sage Rosenfels likely the week 1 starter, Harvin could very well overtake both Berrian and Sydney Rice to be the top pass catcher on this team. Minnesota will constantly move him around and attempt to get him the ball both in space and down the field. I think he has emerged as a very good WR4 candidate to target, but he's a risky WR3 for those who start 3 WRs. I'd rather have him proven his role the first couple weeks, and then move him into my starting lineup.
Knowshon Moreno - Moreno missed a bit of time getting his contract hammered out, but Denver is already throwing him in with the first string offense. He hasn't won the starting job yet, but that's more of a "when" than an "if". He's an ideal RB3 candidate who has a very good chance to post RB2 numbers for most of the season. If you're risky and into taking QB and WRs high, you can target him as your RB2.
Chris Wells / Tim Hightower - Wells signed quickly, but then injured his ankle in his first post-contract practice, and in his absence, Hightower is showing improvement over his problems last season with indecisive running and poor pad level. He certainly has the talent to make some noise, and supposedly he is distancing himself from Wells at the current time. Hightower has a chance to start in week 1, which would crush Wells' value and upside. There's still plenty of time for things to change, but I certainly wouldn't go making Wells my RB2 in any draft.
Michael Crabtree - I already had him rated as overrated, but his holdout is crushing his fantasy value. He's threatening to sit out the 2009 season, but we've already seen what damage that can do when Mike Williams did it (for a different reason), and I don't think he's stupid enough to actually go through with it. He's fighting an uphill climb to be paid more than his draft slot is worth, and SF is intelligently not budging. He's not going to start in week 1, and it may take an injury ahead of him for him to even matter in fantasy leagues this year. Avoid him in redraft leagues.
Matthew Stafford - Stafford continues to win over the new Detroit coaching staff with his intelligence, and we all know he has a cannon for an arm. He's going to be inconsistent like most rookie QBs, but if he ends up winning the starting job, which I think he will at this point, he'll be a guy to keep a close eye on for possible QB2 value. He has a chance to be more like Matt Ryan than Joe Flacco as he'll be playing on a slightly more aggressive passing offense without a dominant defense supporting him. This would be good news for Calvin Johnson as his big arm will fit Johnson's dominant ability to get downfield, and it would allow the chemistry to grow immediately from week 1.
VETERANS
Chris Johnson / LenDale White - As evidenced last night, White is still the go-to guy for the goal line work. He entered the game as soon as the Titans got inside the Bills 10 yard line, and he scored on his 2nd carry. This should put to rest any thoughts that CJ will snipe goal line carries from White this season, and further enforces that the Titans will employ the same running game strategy as last season, with CJ probably getting a few more touches. CJ remains a solid 1st round pick, but his TD totals will suffer a bit compared to the other RBs drafted around him, except for Slaton who looks to be in a very similar situation.
DeSean Jackson - Jackson is looking like the best player at Eagles camp. He suffered a hyperextneded knee over the weekend, but it appears to be a minor injury and nothing something that will cost him much time. Jackson is likely to lead the Eagles is receiving, and while his upside is limited by the spread-the-wealth nature of the Eagles offense, he's emerging as a very interesting WR2 that can be had once the bigger names are off the board.
Donnie Avery - Avery suffered a stress fracture in his foot that will reportedly keep him out 4-6 weeks. He was an intrguing WR3 before this news, but his status for week 1 is in doubt, and the lost time in a new offense is going to hurt once he gets back out on the field. I wouldn't be taking him as anything more than a WR4 right now.
Roddy White - Just a quick note here that his small holdout resulted in a nice payday, and that he's practicing again. I hadn't mentioned it as I didn't see it as a problem, and luckily it turned out that way. Don't change your thoughts on him because of a missed week or so...he's a WR1 who could possibly make the jump to elite this season.
Brandon Marshall - Marshall suffered some sort of injury in practice last week, and rumor has been that it's a setback with his surgically repaired hip. With new coach McDaniels coming from the Belichick coaching tree, don't expect to hear much of anything about what's actually wrong. This is a big concern as he's expected to miss practice this week. Keep a close eye on him.
Kevin Jones - There have been glowing reports of Jones all offseason, and this jives with the fact that Jones is still a very talented RB who's now over a year removed from a torn ACL. He should be back to 100%, and he's an important piece of the Bears offense to help keep Forte fresh this season. He's an excellent Forte handcuff.
Vernon Davis - He's already gotten into one training camp fight, and there's a rumor that he started a 2nd one. For a player who's maturity is holding him back, this is a serious concern. I still think he's worth a stab as a TE2, but those waiting on TEs this year should probably avoid relying on him as a starter. He certainly has the talent and the offensive system to be a TE1 this year, but it appears he's yet to grow up.
Greg Olsen - He continues to receive positive reviews and will be a focal point of the Bears passing attack this season. He's almost certain to take the next step, and he could even flirt with elite TE1 value this season.
Dallas Clark - Colts writers are raving about the chemistry Manning is showing with Clark, and I'm inclined to think that Clark is destined to hang with the great fantasy TEs despite his injury risk. Gonzalez will battle for more targets than the declining Harrison did last season, but Clark is arguably the 2nd option behind Wayne.
Monday, August 3, 2009
Ravens WR Derrick Mason Unretires
Ravens WR Derrick Mason announced his unretirement on Saturday, about 2 weeks after stating he'd retire. There's a whole host of rumors going around as to why he retired in the first place, starting with the emotional aftermath of Steve McNair's death to wanting a raise. It's hard to know exactly what his reasoning is, but the Ravens will stop flirting with free agent WRs now.
Fantasy Impact: I left Mason off of my draft guide as he was retired at the time I wrote it. He'll probably be overdrafted as a WR3/4 this season after his excellent 2008 campaign. As I've written before, I'd much rather jump off a player's bandwagon a year too early than a year too late, and Mason certainly falls into that category. There are younger, more exciting WRs to take around his ADP, which is currently 199.7, or mostly undrafted. I expect that to work itself back into the WR4 range, and there are probably people that will take him as a WR3. Don't be that guy.
I have also updated Mark Clayton as well as he is no longer draftable.
Fantasy Impact: I left Mason off of my draft guide as he was retired at the time I wrote it. He'll probably be overdrafted as a WR3/4 this season after his excellent 2008 campaign. As I've written before, I'd much rather jump off a player's bandwagon a year too early than a year too late, and Mason certainly falls into that category. There are younger, more exciting WRs to take around his ADP, which is currently 199.7, or mostly undrafted. I expect that to work itself back into the WR4 range, and there are probably people that will take him as a WR3. Don't be that guy.
I have also updated Mark Clayton as well as he is no longer draftable.
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