Let's take a look at the WRs with a chance to make a fantasy impact. Over the past few seasons, we've seen some pretty studly rookie seasons from guys like Anquan Boldin, Andre Johnson, and the improbable Marques Colston. Dwayne Bowe was also off to a big start last season, but he eventually wore down and also fell victim to a poor offense.
WR:
Donnie Avery - A completely shocking move by the St. Louis Rams in taking a WR that wasn't a part of any top 5 WR list that I read about. Avery was the 1st WR off the draft board. Avery is a burner who fits the St. Louis WR profile, but he's rather raw and probably won't make an immediate impact. Given Drew Bennett is the starter opposite Torry Holt, Avery will have an outside shot at starting at some point this season depending on how fast he picks up the pro game. He's not worth drafting unless he shines and becomes a starter during the preseason, but that's highly unlikely.
Devin Thomas - Thomas was labeled as many as the WR with the highest upside in the NFL draft, but like Avery, he's also very raw. He was drafted into a great situation in that he'll be given a chance to start opposite Santana Moss, with Randle-El being far better suited for the slot. He's the big, physical receiver that Washington sorely needed, but given his lack of seasoning, it'll be a long-shot for him to be relevant in fantasy leagues this season. Washington is moving to a west coast offense this season, so that'll require some adjustments from QB Jason Campbell as well, so consider that. Thomas isn't a bad speculative choice at the end of drafts depending on how he does in training camp.
Jordy Nelson - Nelson is an interesting talent, but he's more of a project to eventually replace Donald Driver opposite Greg Jennings that someone primed to make a splash in his rookie season. With promising youngster James Jones also on the roster, Nelson is no better than 4th on the depth chart.
James Hardy - Hardy, much like Devin Thomas, was drafted into a situation that will allow him a chance to start in week 1. Buffalo has been looking for a big receiver to start opposite Lee Evans for 2 seasons now, and they finally landed one in the 6'6 Hardy. Given the QB situation in Buffalo is a bit in the air, I can't see Hardy being a big producer in fantasy leagues. Even if everything bounces right, there just won't be enough catches to go around for Hardy to be a weekly option yet with Lee Evans there. However, given his size as a potential red-zone weapon, he could emerge as a fantasy reserve.
Eddie Royal - With Brandon Marshall the unquestioned #1 WR, and the presence of Darrell Jackson, Brandon Stokley, and Keary Colbert on the roster, Royal has no chance of starting this season. The more likely scenario is that Royal will immediately become the team's punt returner, and he'll have a chance to replace Stokley in the slot later in the season should Stokley get hurt. Royal will focus on punt returns and be the #4 receiver at best when week 1 starts.
Jerome Simpson - Simpson will compete to replace Chris Henry in the slot. Given the Bengals often go 3 wide, Simpson could be in line for solid playing time. With CJ and TJ gobbling up most of the production, however, Simpson has a long ways to go to matter in fantasy leagues. If we wins the slot job, he's worth keeping an eye on over the course of the season.
DeSean Jackson - There was much debate over Jackson leading up to the draft, and some places labeled him as the best WR in the draft. His speed is elite, but did he have the size to start? I'm not sure how Philadelphia views him long term, but with Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis locked in as starters, Jackson will compete for the starting slot position. It will likely take an injury to a starter for him to become fantasy relevent.
Malcolm Kelly - Also picked by the Redskins, Kelly will also have a chance to start, but he's behind Devin Thomas thanks to draft position. Once training camp gets going that can all change depending on performance, however, so he's worth keeping an eye on to see if he can unseat Thomas with his performance.
Limas Sweed - I have to say I'm disappointed with Sweed's landing spot. Sweed was my favorite WR in the draft this season, and he was definitely the most pro-ready of them all. However, he lands in a situation in Pittsburgh where Ward and Holmes are anchored as the starters, so he's not going to be given a chance to start. Sweed is a big receiver with deep speed, and I'm surprised Buffalo didn't go with him over Malcolm Kelly. He would definitely be fantasy relevant should either Ward or Holmes get injured this season.
Dexter Jackson - Jackson joins the most convulated offseason passing game in the NFL in Tampa Bay. I think they have about 15 QBs on their roster, and are loaded up on old WRs that are breaking down. Jackson faced 1-AA competition at Appalacian State, so his ability to go against NFL corners will be questioned. Still, with the aging Joey Galloway and Ike Hilliard, the disappointing Michael Clayton, and the questionable Maurice Stovall ahead of him, he has a chance to make an impact and start at some point. It just won't be in week 1, but any Gruden WR is worth remembering.
Earl Bennett - Bennett enters an interesting WR situation in Chicago. Both starters from last season, Muhsin Muhammad and Bernard Berrian, have left. The starting receivers are the promising but oft-injured Mark Bradley, and the returning Marty Booker. Booker has lost at least a step, so he's certainly not the WR he was when he originally played for Chicago. Devin Hester is there, but there are many questions as to what his role will be as a WR, and he's best suited for the slot. Brandon Lloyd is also in the mix, and he certainly has the talent to start for this team. If Bennett really shines in training camp, it'll be very hard for the Bears to keep him off the field. He'd like be a fantasy reserve at best, but he's someone to keep an eye on.
Andre Caldwell - He'll be the underdog to Jerome Simpson in the battle to be Chris Henry's replacement in Cincinnati, but he's worth noting given his supreme athleticism and big time college resume. He fell due to durability concerns, but there's no question he has the talent to be an NFL WR. If he wins the slot position, he'll be worth watching instead of Simpson.
Will Franklin - He's worth keeping tabs on based on the wide-open competition in Kansas City to start opposite Dwayne Bowe. Given the prediction that KC's offense will again be rather sluggish and slowed by inconsistent QB play, it's hard to think that the 3rd option behind Bowe and Gonzalez will have much fantasy value, but it's a name to be familiar with at worst.
If any other rookies emerge with strong training camps and become starters, I'll follow up with an article about them.
TE:
Dustin Keller - Keller is one of 2 rookie TEs worth watching at the moment, and he was drafted by the New York Jets. He's more of a big WR than a lighter TE given his 6'3/242 frame as he's not big enough to block consistently at the NFL level, so I'll be curious to see how the Jets use him. If he impresses and wins playing time, he could be used like Dallas Clark in that he's lined up in the slot and used to create mismatches. He's well worth keeping an eye on.
John Carlson - Carlson was the most well-rounded TE coming out of college this year, and he'll be given a chance to start in the west coast offense of the Seattle Seahawks. Should he win the starting TE role, he'll also be well worth keeping an eye on given Seattle is without proven passing game weapons behind the aging Bobby Engram.
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
NFL Draft Fantasy Football RB Analysis
I'm skipping QBs. Rookie QBs don't offer much of anything in standard redraft leagues.
Let's take a look back on the NFL Draft and figure out which RBs will offer fantasy football value during the 2008 season:
RB:
Darren McFadden - McFadden is obviously the closest thing to Adrian Peterson in this year's draft. He's incredibly talented, but he's joining a somewhat crowded backfield. Last season's starter, Justin Fargas, was re-signed in the offseason prior to the draft. Fargas, however, has a long history of injuries and likely won't last starting all 16 games. Last season's draft choice, Michael Bush, is returning from a broken leg and has reportedly impressed very early on. McFadden is clearly the most talented runner of the group, though. With crazy Al Davis over-riding coach Lane Kiffin whenever he feels like doing it, it wouldn't be surprising to see him push McFadden onto the field as often as possible. All in all, we'll have to wait to see where he goes in drafts before figuring out what will happen with him. This situation could resemble last season's Chester Taylor/Adrian Peterson situation, but Michael Bush is the wild card here.
Jonathan Stewart - Stewart is a top 3 member of the rookie RBs most likely to start. Carolina parted ways with previous starter DeShaun Foster, but their former RB-of-the-future still remains on the roster in DeAngelo Williams. I personally thought Williams could be another Brian Westbrook if given the chance, but his skills just don't fit what Carolina desires in their primary RB, including the mediocrity that Foster had given them the past two seasons. Carolina wants a power running game, and Stewart is far better suited to provide that. Williams has the talent to start in the NFL, but his skills need to fit the offensive system, which makes you wonder why Carolina drafted him in the first place. Stewart's turf toe injury warrants concern, as does his experience in a spread offense. Keep a close eye on reports of his health in training camp. He should be given a chance to become their primary RB, and he's my favorite rookie runner as of now.
Felix Jones - McFadden's complement in college joins another committee at the next level; this time with Marion Barber. Given the Cowboys just inked Barber to a long term extension last week, they're showing committment to Barber as the primary ball carrier. Barber's ability to last as a 300 carry RB is very much in question given his violent running style, so Jones will be a lesser committee member at worst. I put the odds on Barber lasting 16 games as very low, especially given the history of 1st time starters, so Jones should see a couple starts provided he shows he belongs. Jones is a speedster with the talent to start at the NFL level.
Rashard Mendenhall - Mendenhall would have made perfect sense for the Bears, Cardinals, and Lions, but he kept falling on draft day, and he landed right in the Steelers' lap. Willie Parker is going to start as he's earned it with 2 successful seasons in a row as the primary ball carrier, but Parker has his faults. He's poor in short yardage, and he's not impressive in the passing game. Mendenhall is a much better fit for their desired power running game, and he's also better at blitz pickup and catching passes. At first, expect Mendenhall to be given every chance to be the short yardage and 3rd down RB for the Steelers in his rookie season, and I expect him to take some of Parker's carries. Should Parker go down, he would have incredible fantasy value. Until then, he's a RB3.
Chris Johnson - Johnson was a shocker for the Titans as they really didn't need another RB project. With LenWhale White hossing up the carries plus the post-game buffet, Johnson isn't left with much to feed upon. Last year's 2nd round project Chris Henry is still around and showed some promise, so Johnson is battling for a backup role. Johnson has ridiciulous speed, but his thin frame presents durability issues, although he's built similarly to Clinton Portis coming out of college. He's not worth targeting unless injuries blow up the Titans' backfield. He's competing with Henry for a true backup role, although he should have the upperhand if nothing other than the fact he was a 1st round pick. Johnson should earn a 3rd down/change-of-pace role with a strong pre-season.
Matt Forte - Forte, along with Stewart, is a top 3 member of the rookie RBs most likely to start. Cedric Benson has never showed much at the NFL level, is coming off of a bad broken ankle/leg, plus he's had a drunken incident in the offseason to boot. Unfortunately the Chicago Bears aren't a team that will quickly admit mistakes, and Benson is still being called the team's starting RB. Benson has always had the pure talent, and it's possible that Forte's arrival will motivate him to finally cash in on that talent. Forte isn't special in area, but he's a solid all-around RB, and in a fair world he'll be given a chance to win the starting job. As a Bears fan, I love the fact that he's a blue-collar worker without the big attitude, and I think he's a great fit for this team. At 6'2/222, he's a load, and he also possesses open-field speed, blocking prowess, and the ability to catch the football...none of which Cedric Benson has. The only knock on him was facing weaker competition while playing at Tulane.
Ray Rice - Rice was a bigtime producer at the college level at Rutgers, but he'll move directly into a backup role for the Ravens behind incumbant starter Willis McGahee. McGahee revived his career last season, so Rice will be a true backup, but McGahee does have his durability concerns. He'll be an excellent handcuff for McGahee owners, and he'd have a lot of value as the Ravens starter should McGahee go down. He's a powerful runner with good speed and solid passing game skills.
Kevin Smith - Smith is the remaining top 3 member of the rookie RBs most likely to start. The Lions released Kevin Jones amidst all of his injuries, and Smith's only competition is the underwhelming Tatum Bell, and Brian Calhoun, a 2nd year RB coming off a torn ACL with no NFL experience. Considering the competition, he might have the best chance to start of all 3. The Lions, with Mike Martz gone, are expected to eliminate the spread offense and focus more on traditional formations with 2 WRs and the running game. Smith has talent as evidenced by just missing Barry Sanders' record for most yards in a season, but given concerns about his monster senior year college workload (450 carries!!) and the competition (played at UCF), he fell to the 3rd round despite a higher 2nd round draft grade by many outlets.
Steve Slaton - Slaton was in the limelight after his monster sophomore season, but a recurring wrist injury hampered his ability to hold onto the football as he fumbled often during his sophomore and junior seasons. Already labeled a durability concern with his thin frame, this didn't help his draft stock. Slaton will probably never be an NFL workhorse, but he landed in a good spot in Houston. The injury-prone Ahman Green and Chris Brown are ahead of him, although the coaching staff is also high on 2nd year man Chris Taylor. Slaton will have to prove healthy and able to hold onto the football to earn playing time, but he's a great fit for a zone blocking team like Houston.
Ryan Torain - Sleeper alert. First of all, Denver drafted him late, making him noteworthy immediately. Secondly, he was very talented, but a broken toe in the middle of his senior year killed his draft status. He has the disappointing Travis Henry ahead of him, as well as last season's late draft choice/breakout player in Selvin Young. The Denver coaching staff doesn't appear interested in making Young a workhorse given his thin frame, but Torain is anything but that at 6'1/222. Torain is a great fit for the zone blocking system and shows good all-around skills. If Torain recovers from the fractured toe and shows well in traning camp, keep a very close eye on him.
Tim Hightower - Slightly lesser sleeper alert. With Edgerrin James nearing the end of his career and the Cardinals lack of depth at the position (Marcel Shipp, J.J. Arrington), Hightower could immediately emerge as a committee member with the potential to start despite being a 5th round pick. He is worth watching closely thanks to the lack of depth ahead of him, and a solid offense around him. It would probably take an Edgerrin James injury to give him a lot of fantasy value, but at Edge's age, it's very possible.
Mike Hart - A player worth watching thanks to his situation. Kenton Keith is on thin ice thanks to his offseason brush with the law. The Colts really like Hart, and the only thing that kept Hart from being drafted higher was his slow 40 time. He produced against bigtime competition for 4 years in college, so he's worth watching as a potential backup to seemingly oft-nicked up Joseph Addai.
Let's take a look back on the NFL Draft and figure out which RBs will offer fantasy football value during the 2008 season:
RB:
Darren McFadden - McFadden is obviously the closest thing to Adrian Peterson in this year's draft. He's incredibly talented, but he's joining a somewhat crowded backfield. Last season's starter, Justin Fargas, was re-signed in the offseason prior to the draft. Fargas, however, has a long history of injuries and likely won't last starting all 16 games. Last season's draft choice, Michael Bush, is returning from a broken leg and has reportedly impressed very early on. McFadden is clearly the most talented runner of the group, though. With crazy Al Davis over-riding coach Lane Kiffin whenever he feels like doing it, it wouldn't be surprising to see him push McFadden onto the field as often as possible. All in all, we'll have to wait to see where he goes in drafts before figuring out what will happen with him. This situation could resemble last season's Chester Taylor/Adrian Peterson situation, but Michael Bush is the wild card here.
Jonathan Stewart - Stewart is a top 3 member of the rookie RBs most likely to start. Carolina parted ways with previous starter DeShaun Foster, but their former RB-of-the-future still remains on the roster in DeAngelo Williams. I personally thought Williams could be another Brian Westbrook if given the chance, but his skills just don't fit what Carolina desires in their primary RB, including the mediocrity that Foster had given them the past two seasons. Carolina wants a power running game, and Stewart is far better suited to provide that. Williams has the talent to start in the NFL, but his skills need to fit the offensive system, which makes you wonder why Carolina drafted him in the first place. Stewart's turf toe injury warrants concern, as does his experience in a spread offense. Keep a close eye on reports of his health in training camp. He should be given a chance to become their primary RB, and he's my favorite rookie runner as of now.
Felix Jones - McFadden's complement in college joins another committee at the next level; this time with Marion Barber. Given the Cowboys just inked Barber to a long term extension last week, they're showing committment to Barber as the primary ball carrier. Barber's ability to last as a 300 carry RB is very much in question given his violent running style, so Jones will be a lesser committee member at worst. I put the odds on Barber lasting 16 games as very low, especially given the history of 1st time starters, so Jones should see a couple starts provided he shows he belongs. Jones is a speedster with the talent to start at the NFL level.
Rashard Mendenhall - Mendenhall would have made perfect sense for the Bears, Cardinals, and Lions, but he kept falling on draft day, and he landed right in the Steelers' lap. Willie Parker is going to start as he's earned it with 2 successful seasons in a row as the primary ball carrier, but Parker has his faults. He's poor in short yardage, and he's not impressive in the passing game. Mendenhall is a much better fit for their desired power running game, and he's also better at blitz pickup and catching passes. At first, expect Mendenhall to be given every chance to be the short yardage and 3rd down RB for the Steelers in his rookie season, and I expect him to take some of Parker's carries. Should Parker go down, he would have incredible fantasy value. Until then, he's a RB3.
Chris Johnson - Johnson was a shocker for the Titans as they really didn't need another RB project. With LenWhale White hossing up the carries plus the post-game buffet, Johnson isn't left with much to feed upon. Last year's 2nd round project Chris Henry is still around and showed some promise, so Johnson is battling for a backup role. Johnson has ridiciulous speed, but his thin frame presents durability issues, although he's built similarly to Clinton Portis coming out of college. He's not worth targeting unless injuries blow up the Titans' backfield. He's competing with Henry for a true backup role, although he should have the upperhand if nothing other than the fact he was a 1st round pick. Johnson should earn a 3rd down/change-of-pace role with a strong pre-season.
Matt Forte - Forte, along with Stewart, is a top 3 member of the rookie RBs most likely to start. Cedric Benson has never showed much at the NFL level, is coming off of a bad broken ankle/leg, plus he's had a drunken incident in the offseason to boot. Unfortunately the Chicago Bears aren't a team that will quickly admit mistakes, and Benson is still being called the team's starting RB. Benson has always had the pure talent, and it's possible that Forte's arrival will motivate him to finally cash in on that talent. Forte isn't special in area, but he's a solid all-around RB, and in a fair world he'll be given a chance to win the starting job. As a Bears fan, I love the fact that he's a blue-collar worker without the big attitude, and I think he's a great fit for this team. At 6'2/222, he's a load, and he also possesses open-field speed, blocking prowess, and the ability to catch the football...none of which Cedric Benson has. The only knock on him was facing weaker competition while playing at Tulane.
Ray Rice - Rice was a bigtime producer at the college level at Rutgers, but he'll move directly into a backup role for the Ravens behind incumbant starter Willis McGahee. McGahee revived his career last season, so Rice will be a true backup, but McGahee does have his durability concerns. He'll be an excellent handcuff for McGahee owners, and he'd have a lot of value as the Ravens starter should McGahee go down. He's a powerful runner with good speed and solid passing game skills.
Kevin Smith - Smith is the remaining top 3 member of the rookie RBs most likely to start. The Lions released Kevin Jones amidst all of his injuries, and Smith's only competition is the underwhelming Tatum Bell, and Brian Calhoun, a 2nd year RB coming off a torn ACL with no NFL experience. Considering the competition, he might have the best chance to start of all 3. The Lions, with Mike Martz gone, are expected to eliminate the spread offense and focus more on traditional formations with 2 WRs and the running game. Smith has talent as evidenced by just missing Barry Sanders' record for most yards in a season, but given concerns about his monster senior year college workload (450 carries!!) and the competition (played at UCF), he fell to the 3rd round despite a higher 2nd round draft grade by many outlets.
Steve Slaton - Slaton was in the limelight after his monster sophomore season, but a recurring wrist injury hampered his ability to hold onto the football as he fumbled often during his sophomore and junior seasons. Already labeled a durability concern with his thin frame, this didn't help his draft stock. Slaton will probably never be an NFL workhorse, but he landed in a good spot in Houston. The injury-prone Ahman Green and Chris Brown are ahead of him, although the coaching staff is also high on 2nd year man Chris Taylor. Slaton will have to prove healthy and able to hold onto the football to earn playing time, but he's a great fit for a zone blocking team like Houston.
Ryan Torain - Sleeper alert. First of all, Denver drafted him late, making him noteworthy immediately. Secondly, he was very talented, but a broken toe in the middle of his senior year killed his draft status. He has the disappointing Travis Henry ahead of him, as well as last season's late draft choice/breakout player in Selvin Young. The Denver coaching staff doesn't appear interested in making Young a workhorse given his thin frame, but Torain is anything but that at 6'1/222. Torain is a great fit for the zone blocking system and shows good all-around skills. If Torain recovers from the fractured toe and shows well in traning camp, keep a very close eye on him.
Tim Hightower - Slightly lesser sleeper alert. With Edgerrin James nearing the end of his career and the Cardinals lack of depth at the position (Marcel Shipp, J.J. Arrington), Hightower could immediately emerge as a committee member with the potential to start despite being a 5th round pick. He is worth watching closely thanks to the lack of depth ahead of him, and a solid offense around him. It would probably take an Edgerrin James injury to give him a lot of fantasy value, but at Edge's age, it's very possible.
Mike Hart - A player worth watching thanks to his situation. Kenton Keith is on thin ice thanks to his offseason brush with the law. The Colts really like Hart, and the only thing that kept Hart from being drafted higher was his slow 40 time. He produced against bigtime competition for 4 years in college, so he's worth watching as a potential backup to seemingly oft-nicked up Joseph Addai.
Blog Re-Focus
I have decided that I just don't have time to focus on 2 different sports. Fantasy baseball is a very involved day-to-day game for 6 months, and you really have to dig into the statistics to offer up something unique over all the other writing out there. I don't have the time necessary to dig that deep into the stats and offer that up, so I'm going to waste my time offering up cookie-cutter advice that you can find elsewhere on the web.
On a positive note, this blog will focus solely on fantasy football. It's not as involved, which gives me enough time to write pre-draft value analysis articles on each position, weekly game reviews during the season, and waiver wire suggestions as the season progresses. I promise to those who visit here that these articles will be plentiful once training camp picks up.
On a positive note, this blog will focus solely on fantasy football. It's not as involved, which gives me enough time to write pre-draft value analysis articles on each position, weekly game reviews during the season, and waiver wire suggestions as the season progresses. I promise to those who visit here that these articles will be plentiful once training camp picks up.
Thursday, April 3, 2008
J.J. Putz and Chad Cordero To The DL
Let the race for saves begin!
Seattle closer J.J. Putz is headed to the DL indefinitely with rib cartilage inflammation. Washington closer Chad Cordero is headed to the DL with shoulder tendonitits.
Fantasy Impact: Pick up Mark Lowe and Jon Rauch immediately. Both should be solid closer options while they have the job.
Miguel Bautista picked up the save yesterday, but Lowe had pitched the previous 2 days, and he's coming back from elbow surgery. Lowe is without question the best candidate for saves in their bullpen right now, and you might still have a chance at him with Bautista potentially tricking some owners into picking him up instead.
Jon Rauch picked up the save yesterday, and he'll get all the save chances with Cordero sidelined.
Seattle closer J.J. Putz is headed to the DL indefinitely with rib cartilage inflammation. Washington closer Chad Cordero is headed to the DL with shoulder tendonitits.
Fantasy Impact: Pick up Mark Lowe and Jon Rauch immediately. Both should be solid closer options while they have the job.
Miguel Bautista picked up the save yesterday, but Lowe had pitched the previous 2 days, and he's coming back from elbow surgery. Lowe is without question the best candidate for saves in their bullpen right now, and you might still have a chance at him with Bautista potentially tricking some owners into picking him up instead.
Jon Rauch picked up the save yesterday, and he'll get all the save chances with Cordero sidelined.
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Pedro Martinez Leaves Start Early - DL?
New York Mets pitcher Pedro Martinez left his start in the 4th inning last night with a "strained hamstring".
Fantasy Impact: Given Martinez stated that he heard a "twinge or pop", this sounds like it could be serious. It would be a major upset if he didn't land on the DL and miss a few starts, plus there's a definite possibility that this could be a multiple month injury. Owners like myself who drafted Pedro as a 3rd starter or so knew that he wasn't going to pitch 200 innings this year, but to have him injured in his first start is very disappointing. He looked very good in spring training despite topping out in the high 80s with his fastball.
Hopefully he'll only miss a few starts. Keep a close eye on starters while he's out. Each year, many mixed league starters being to emerge in the first month. This year will be no different. The season is too young to call who those pitchers might be, but I'll start name dropping after a couple weeks.
Fantasy Impact: Given Martinez stated that he heard a "twinge or pop", this sounds like it could be serious. It would be a major upset if he didn't land on the DL and miss a few starts, plus there's a definite possibility that this could be a multiple month injury. Owners like myself who drafted Pedro as a 3rd starter or so knew that he wasn't going to pitch 200 innings this year, but to have him injured in his first start is very disappointing. He looked very good in spring training despite topping out in the high 80s with his fastball.
Hopefully he'll only miss a few starts. Keep a close eye on starters while he's out. Each year, many mixed league starters being to emerge in the first month. This year will be no different. The season is too young to call who those pitchers might be, but I'll start name dropping after a couple weeks.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Opening Day!
Hey All
Thanks to work obligations, vacations, and general laziness, I haven't been able to do much up until now. With baseball season underway, I plan to contribute more articles here. I no longer have the time necessary to do daily recaps of every game, but I instead plan to write a couple pieces each week about player values. It's too late to do a draft value analysis, obviously, but I can comment on what's happened so far.
- Numerous sources indicated that Manny Ramirez re-dedicated himself to the gym this year, and given this is his contract year, you can expect big things from him. Given his age you can almost bet on 1-2 DL stints, but he'll be plenty motivated to light up the stat lines this year. Given his down year last year, his value was depressed enough to where he was going in the 3rd round, which is solid value for a hitter of his pedigree.
- Rich Harden enjoyed his first healthy offseason in some time, so if there was a year that he'll make 30 starts, this is probably it. I'm not saying that he will, and odds are that he'll only make 10-15 starts again. He is often compared to Kerry Wood, but one must remember that Wood did manage back-to-back 30+ start seasons in 2002 and 2003, posting a big fantasy season in 2003. Harden got things going with a great outing last night (6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 9 K). Given he was picked as a 4th starter type this year, it's no big deal for your team if he gets hurt again.
Thanks to work obligations, vacations, and general laziness, I haven't been able to do much up until now. With baseball season underway, I plan to contribute more articles here. I no longer have the time necessary to do daily recaps of every game, but I instead plan to write a couple pieces each week about player values. It's too late to do a draft value analysis, obviously, but I can comment on what's happened so far.
- Numerous sources indicated that Manny Ramirez re-dedicated himself to the gym this year, and given this is his contract year, you can expect big things from him. Given his age you can almost bet on 1-2 DL stints, but he'll be plenty motivated to light up the stat lines this year. Given his down year last year, his value was depressed enough to where he was going in the 3rd round, which is solid value for a hitter of his pedigree.
- Rich Harden enjoyed his first healthy offseason in some time, so if there was a year that he'll make 30 starts, this is probably it. I'm not saying that he will, and odds are that he'll only make 10-15 starts again. He is often compared to Kerry Wood, but one must remember that Wood did manage back-to-back 30+ start seasons in 2002 and 2003, posting a big fantasy season in 2003. Harden got things going with a great outing last night (6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 9 K). Given he was picked as a 4th starter type this year, it's no big deal for your team if he gets hurt again.
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Erik Bedard Traded To The Mariners
The Seattle Mariners have traded for SP Erik Bedard. The Baltimore Orioles have received OF Adam Jones, RP George Sherrill, RP Chris Tillman, RP
Fantasy Impact: Erik Bedard, much like Johan Santana, is moving to a much improved situation. He's moving to one of the best pitcher's ballparks in the AL, in a weaker offensive division, in front of a better offense, and with a better supporting bullpen. With the Orioles dealing Miguel Tejada, they look to be set on trotting out one of the worst lineups in baseball this year, so while the Mariners are hardly an offensive machine, the upgrade is pretty large. This should lead to Bedard building off of last year's breakthrough season, and the ballpark/division switch should help him post similar numbers. Be careful as Bedard has only had one ace season and hasn't lasted 200 innings yet, but last season's injury was not arm-related, and he should post an ace-like season and have a solid chance at 200 innings. He'll likely be taken 3rd after Santana and Peavy, and I think he has a great chance to live up to that draft slot in relation to the rest of the pitchers. He'll probably go too early for when I'd recommend taking an ace, however.
Much like the Twins, the centerpiece of the deal is a top OF prospect in Adam Jones. He has bigger fantasy potential than Carlos Gomez for the short term, and perhaps the long term as well, but his 2008 value will depend on playing time and his position in the batting order. He's worth keeping an eye on, but certainly not drafting as anything more than a reserve OF.
Fantasy Impact: Erik Bedard, much like Johan Santana, is moving to a much improved situation. He's moving to one of the best pitcher's ballparks in the AL, in a weaker offensive division, in front of a better offense, and with a better supporting bullpen. With the Orioles dealing Miguel Tejada, they look to be set on trotting out one of the worst lineups in baseball this year, so while the Mariners are hardly an offensive machine, the upgrade is pretty large. This should lead to Bedard building off of last year's breakthrough season, and the ballpark/division switch should help him post similar numbers. Be careful as Bedard has only had one ace season and hasn't lasted 200 innings yet, but last season's injury was not arm-related, and he should post an ace-like season and have a solid chance at 200 innings. He'll likely be taken 3rd after Santana and Peavy, and I think he has a great chance to live up to that draft slot in relation to the rest of the pitchers. He'll probably go too early for when I'd recommend taking an ace, however.
Much like the Twins, the centerpiece of the deal is a top OF prospect in Adam Jones. He has bigger fantasy potential than Carlos Gomez for the short term, and perhaps the long term as well, but his 2008 value will depend on playing time and his position in the batting order. He's worth keeping an eye on, but certainly not drafting as anything more than a reserve OF.
Johan Santana Traded To The Mets
The New York Mets have traded for SP Johan Santana. The Minnesota Twins received OF Carlos Gomez, SP Deolis Guerra, SP Kevin Mulvey, and SP Phillip Humber.
Fantasy Impact: The initial reaction to this trade would be that Santana's fantasy stock just went through the roof. On the surface, this appears to be the case. He's moving to the weaker league, which should mean more Ks as he'll face pitchers and pinch hitters rather than designated hitters. He's moving to a stronger team (although with a weaker bullpen), which should mean more Ws. He's also moving to a bigger ballpark, which combined with the weaker hitters, should mean a stronger ERA/WHIP. This is definitely a boon for his fantasy potential in 2008, but I still feel he's over-valued. He was a top 3 pick last year on average behind Pujols and Reyes, and he figures to go in the top 5 this year among Pujols, A-Rod, Reyes, and Hanley Ramirez. He's the surest bet among pitchers, but since there's so much turnover from year to year among the top pitchers, you'll have no problem finding a steady ace later on in the draft. Starting pitchers, even ones as dominant as Johan Santana, still only contribute to 4 catagories. When you start looking at the middle to lower half of the first round where guys like David Wright, Chase Utley, Matt Holliday, and Ryan Braun are taken, you just can't substitute the 5 catagory contributions those guys add to your team as easily as you can a starting pitcher. 2008 very well could be Santana's best season yet, potentially creating a dominant performance in the 4 SP catagories, but it's not enough for me.
Among the players headed to the Twins, the only player with a chance of making a contribution in 2008 is Carlos Gomez. That depends on the playing time he'll log in CF for the Twins, plus if he'll hit in the leadoff spot when he does play. It's worth keeping in mind, but as a rookie, temper your most optimistic expectations.
Fantasy Impact: The initial reaction to this trade would be that Santana's fantasy stock just went through the roof. On the surface, this appears to be the case. He's moving to the weaker league, which should mean more Ks as he'll face pitchers and pinch hitters rather than designated hitters. He's moving to a stronger team (although with a weaker bullpen), which should mean more Ws. He's also moving to a bigger ballpark, which combined with the weaker hitters, should mean a stronger ERA/WHIP. This is definitely a boon for his fantasy potential in 2008, but I still feel he's over-valued. He was a top 3 pick last year on average behind Pujols and Reyes, and he figures to go in the top 5 this year among Pujols, A-Rod, Reyes, and Hanley Ramirez. He's the surest bet among pitchers, but since there's so much turnover from year to year among the top pitchers, you'll have no problem finding a steady ace later on in the draft. Starting pitchers, even ones as dominant as Johan Santana, still only contribute to 4 catagories. When you start looking at the middle to lower half of the first round where guys like David Wright, Chase Utley, Matt Holliday, and Ryan Braun are taken, you just can't substitute the 5 catagory contributions those guys add to your team as easily as you can a starting pitcher. 2008 very well could be Santana's best season yet, potentially creating a dominant performance in the 4 SP catagories, but it's not enough for me.
Among the players headed to the Twins, the only player with a chance of making a contribution in 2008 is Carlos Gomez. That depends on the playing time he'll log in CF for the Twins, plus if he'll hit in the leadoff spot when he does play. It's worth keeping in mind, but as a rookie, temper your most optimistic expectations.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Baltimore Hires Cam Cameron As New OC
The Baltimore Ravens have hired former Chargers OC and Dolphins head coach Cam Cameron to be their next offensive coordinator.
Cameron is a great fit in Baltimore who boasts a great RB/TE combination in Willis McGahee and Todd Heap. He took Tomlinson and Gates to the next level with his offensive system, and he turned Ronnie Brown's career around prior to the torn ACL. He also did a great job in SD developing both Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers into NFL QBs. Baltimore doesn't currently have a young QB to develop, so look for that to change this offseason, likely through the draft.
Fantasy Impact: Willis McGahee owners, rejoice. After coaching both LaDainian Tomlinson and Ronnie Brown, he'll bring his offensive system to Willis McGahee. He's coordinated a great rushing attack wherever he's been, and that figures to continue. McGahee saw increased productivity in the passing game last season (43 catches last year compared to 68 combined his first 3 seasons), and Cameron will likely take advantage of getting McGahee into space as he's far more effective there than as a battering ram like Buffalo tried to use him. Both LT and Brown were used quite often as pass catchers for his offense. Not only that, but both LT and Brown posted very good YPCs despite not always having a great line in front of them, so I expect McGahee's productivity to rise as well in the YPC department.
This is also great news for Todd Heap. Cameron coached the emergence of Antonio Gates, but he didn't have anything resembling Gates in Miami last season. Heap is a great all-around TE when he's on the field, so expect a rebound season from Heap, who will probably be undervalued in FF drafts next season. Cameron has never coach an explosive passing attack before, however, but has a reliable vet in Mason and a downfield threat in Clayton at his disposal. Their values will be tied closer to what happens to the QB situation.
Cameron is a great fit in Baltimore who boasts a great RB/TE combination in Willis McGahee and Todd Heap. He took Tomlinson and Gates to the next level with his offensive system, and he turned Ronnie Brown's career around prior to the torn ACL. He also did a great job in SD developing both Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers into NFL QBs. Baltimore doesn't currently have a young QB to develop, so look for that to change this offseason, likely through the draft.
Fantasy Impact: Willis McGahee owners, rejoice. After coaching both LaDainian Tomlinson and Ronnie Brown, he'll bring his offensive system to Willis McGahee. He's coordinated a great rushing attack wherever he's been, and that figures to continue. McGahee saw increased productivity in the passing game last season (43 catches last year compared to 68 combined his first 3 seasons), and Cameron will likely take advantage of getting McGahee into space as he's far more effective there than as a battering ram like Buffalo tried to use him. Both LT and Brown were used quite often as pass catchers for his offense. Not only that, but both LT and Brown posted very good YPCs despite not always having a great line in front of them, so I expect McGahee's productivity to rise as well in the YPC department.
This is also great news for Todd Heap. Cameron coached the emergence of Antonio Gates, but he didn't have anything resembling Gates in Miami last season. Heap is a great all-around TE when he's on the field, so expect a rebound season from Heap, who will probably be undervalued in FF drafts next season. Cameron has never coach an explosive passing attack before, however, but has a reliable vet in Mason and a downfield threat in Clayton at his disposal. Their values will be tied closer to what happens to the QB situation.
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
SF Hires Mike Martz As New OC
The San Francisco 49ers have hired former STL/DET OC Mike Martz as their new offensive coordinator.
I'm not sure what the 49ers are doing here, at least on paper. Martz runs a downfield passing attack that requires a heady pocket QB, a RB who can catch passes out of the backfield, and quick WRs running precise routes. While Alex Smith is definitely an intelligent QB (he scored very high on the Wunderlich), he's more mobile than anyone Martz has coached before (Warner, Bulger, Kitna), and it remains to be seen how much he'll move Smith around. Frank Gore will play a big part in the passing game, but Martz often abandons the run. Perhaps the added scoring chances will make up for what is likely to be a downtick in carries, although it can't be much worse than this past year. The 49ers WRs are mostly a mess. Darrell Jackson doesn't look the same as he once did in Seattle, Arnaz Battle is alright, and they don't have much beyond that. Martz has never featured a TE in his offense, but Vernon Davis is easily the most talented pass catcher he has. Martz's scheme seems completely backwards from the personel that SF has, but he'll undoubtedly improve the offense's production.
Cam Cameron seemed like a far better choice, unless he wasn't interested, but I find that hard to believe. Cameron designed and engineered the prolific SD offense that featured a great all-around RB in LT and great TE in Gates before taking Miami's head coaching position last year. His scheme would seemingly fit perfectly into the personel that SF has with Gore and Davis.
Fantasy Impact: This is good news for Alex Smith. He's smart enough to run Martz's offense, and SF will upgrade their WR group in the offseason. Smith should easily post career highs all across the board next year. Frank Gore's value stays about the same. Think Kevin Jones of 2006, who posted RB1 numbers before busting his foot. Gore possesses great passing game skills, which will suit the new offense, and he'll likely receive more scoring chances. Darrell Jackson, if he's healthy, could be a sleeper, but that "if" I just mentioned is a big question mark. Opening up the offense will only mean good things for Vernon Davis, although like I mentioned above, Martz has never featured a TE before. He'll have to now. All in all, this is good news for all SF skill positions as Martz has featured a very good offense every year except in 2007.
I'm not sure what the 49ers are doing here, at least on paper. Martz runs a downfield passing attack that requires a heady pocket QB, a RB who can catch passes out of the backfield, and quick WRs running precise routes. While Alex Smith is definitely an intelligent QB (he scored very high on the Wunderlich), he's more mobile than anyone Martz has coached before (Warner, Bulger, Kitna), and it remains to be seen how much he'll move Smith around. Frank Gore will play a big part in the passing game, but Martz often abandons the run. Perhaps the added scoring chances will make up for what is likely to be a downtick in carries, although it can't be much worse than this past year. The 49ers WRs are mostly a mess. Darrell Jackson doesn't look the same as he once did in Seattle, Arnaz Battle is alright, and they don't have much beyond that. Martz has never featured a TE in his offense, but Vernon Davis is easily the most talented pass catcher he has. Martz's scheme seems completely backwards from the personel that SF has, but he'll undoubtedly improve the offense's production.
Cam Cameron seemed like a far better choice, unless he wasn't interested, but I find that hard to believe. Cameron designed and engineered the prolific SD offense that featured a great all-around RB in LT and great TE in Gates before taking Miami's head coaching position last year. His scheme would seemingly fit perfectly into the personel that SF has with Gore and Davis.
Fantasy Impact: This is good news for Alex Smith. He's smart enough to run Martz's offense, and SF will upgrade their WR group in the offseason. Smith should easily post career highs all across the board next year. Frank Gore's value stays about the same. Think Kevin Jones of 2006, who posted RB1 numbers before busting his foot. Gore possesses great passing game skills, which will suit the new offense, and he'll likely receive more scoring chances. Darrell Jackson, if he's healthy, could be a sleeper, but that "if" I just mentioned is a big question mark. Opening up the offense will only mean good things for Vernon Davis, although like I mentioned above, Martz has never featured a TE before. He'll have to now. All in all, this is good news for all SF skill positions as Martz has featured a very good offense every year except in 2007.
Monday, January 7, 2008
Fantasy Football Lessons Learned
QB:
I've already posted my QB analysis, so that's covered.
RB:
1) Avoid overworked RBs from the previous year. Larry Johnson, as I warned readers prior to the regular season, was a huge risk of sustaining an injury this season. Now it's hard to take full credit for this as his injury was a bit flukish in nature as his leg was caught underneath him, but the history still holds true that RBs who receive 375 f/carries (carries + 1/2 receptions) are at high risk of breaking down the following season. Not only that, but the worries about his surrounding offensive situation and his holdout proved very valid and he started off horribly slow, then only managed a couple good games against bottom-of-the-barrel run Ds. Steven Jackson also falls into this catagory as he also surpassed the 375 f/carry mark last year. His torn hamstring costed his owners a lot of productoin during his absence. The third, LT, is pretty much the exception to all rules. Luckily no RB hit that magic number this year, although Willie Parker was well on his way until breaking his leg. Clinton Portis came the closest at 348.
2) Avoid the 30ish RBs early on. Those expecting resurgent seasons from Shaun Alexander and Edgerrin James were sorely disappointed, especially Alexander as he costed a much higher price tag. Not only did he get hurt for the 2nd straight year, but he absolutely fell off the map during the 2nd half of the season. Edgerrin James continued his durability, but his production also took a nose-dive in the 2nd half of the season. Alexander seems likely to get a chance as the featured back again next year, but I wouldn't bother wasting my time with him. There's no upside left. James is likely headed for a committee as he winds down his career. Jamal Lewis and Fred Taylor are both up there in age, but they were drafted as RB3s, and they represent a much safer draft choice in that range.
3) Strongly consider offensive situation. Frank Gore was the perfect example of this. His skills didn't go anywhere, and he's still young, but the offense fell apart and he was directly a victim of the 49ers inability to pass the football. Adrian Peterson/Chester Taylor were an exception this year thanks to their incredible offensive line, but expect defenses to adjust. If the Vikings don't add a reliable veteran WR somewhere along the line, Peterson could suffer from a production drop like Gore experienced this season. Top rushers like LT, Westbrook, Parker, and Jamal Lewis (what the hell?) were on offenses that were balanced enough to keep defenses honest. Rivers and McNabb struggled a bit this year, but the defense still had to respect the passing game, and the runners benefitted.
4) Beware first time feature RBs. Talented RBs like Joseph Addai, Brandon Jacobs, Marshawn Lynch, and LenDale White all failed to play 16 games. None of them had been a feature NFL RB before, and it seems to have become a pattern that first timers either wear down like Addai and Lynch, or miss multiple games like Jacobs and White. All of these guys made solid draft choices, but as the season wears on, make sure to acquire an insurance policy in case you lose one when it matters most. Marion Barber, Michael Turner, and any rookie RB will likely fall into this catagory next season.
WR:
1) Identify potential breakout stars. These are guys in their 2nd or 3rd seasons that take the next step. Braylon Edwards, Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings, Santonio Holmes, and Roddy White all qualify for this catagory this year. All were huge draft day steals who paid dividends to their owners. Braylon Edwards was a bit of a surprise, but he produced no matter what the previous year down the stretch despite the QB carosel. Brandon Marshall flashed impressive skills his rookie season, and Walker's injury allowed him to shine. Santonio Holmes battled some nagging injuries, but he turned into one of the NFL's best deep threats and will continue getting better. Anderson's stabilization of the CLE QB situation took Edwards into the fantasy elite. Roddy White was the biggest surprise, and he really blossomed down the stretch once Chris Redman took over and started looking downfield more often. If Atlanta adds a reliable veteran QB, he'll be one to target next year. Dwayne Bowe, Calvin Johnson, and Ronald Curry are all guys to keep in mind for next season.
2) Consider QB changes. Andre Johnson is the biggest beneficiary of this as Kubiak's system finally added a QB in Schaub that matched his offense, and AJ boomed into the fantasy elite while healthy. WRs can have tremendous talent, but if they don't have the proper system around them, they won't realize it. AJ should be a stud for years to come.
3) Marques Colston is for real. He suffered from a slight sophmore slump, but he really turned it on in the 2nd half, and he's here to stay. The Saints still need to find a more reliable secondary target to complement him, but he's a borderline WR1, and will be for a while.
4) Anquan Boldin gets hurt too much. I love this dude's skills, and I think he's very similar to T.O. The problem is that he's been banged up quite a bit. I think he's entering a catagory of player where you just can't expect 16 games from him, and you have to analyze his draft day value accordingly.
TE:
1) Don't reach. Gates is great, but he's not worth taking so far ahead of the others. Let's see if his ADP adjusts next year. I made a huge mistake by drafting Vernon Davis too early in several drafts, thinking that he would break out and become the next great TE. The skills are there, but guys like Chris Cooley and Jason Witten were available much later. Analyze the passing offense for the pass catchers and wait around for one. Winslow was a much better risk as he not only came much later, but he also had huge upside with health concerns. If you screw up and take a bust TE with the 9th or 10th pick, it's not a huge deal. If your 5th or 6th round TE busts, it's a much bigger deal.
K:
1) As I say every year, there's absolutely no reason to be picking a kicker above the last round. Find an offense that you think will score a lot, preferably one that plays in a dome or in warm weather come December so you don't have to worry about him the last month, and grab him in the last round.
D/ST:
1) How did that Baltimore pick treat you this year? Again, don't draft a defense before the last several rounds. Very few defenses are worth playing every week anyways.
All Positions:
1) A solid indicator of breakout stars lies in looking at 2nd half boomers. These are guys who picked up their play in the 2nd half of the previous year. They don't necessarily have to light the fantasy football world on fire, but guys who showed progress as the season went along. Tony Romo, Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes, Chris Cooley, and Jason Witten all qualify for this year. Guys to keep an eye on for next year are Jay Cutler, Donovan McNabb, Laurence Maroney (the Pats will run him more next year), Ryan Grant, Roddy White, and Tony Scheffler.
I hope you guys all enjoyed another season of fantasy football in 2007. I certainly did, and I aim to bring you more detailed preseason assessments, more accurate observations, and a full season's worth of player updates later on this year. I don't anticipate running into another work-related episode like I did this past season as I'm looking for a job that won't do that to me again. :)
I'll be posting soon with some preliminary fantasy baseball thoughts. Cheers!
I've already posted my QB analysis, so that's covered.
RB:
1) Avoid overworked RBs from the previous year. Larry Johnson, as I warned readers prior to the regular season, was a huge risk of sustaining an injury this season. Now it's hard to take full credit for this as his injury was a bit flukish in nature as his leg was caught underneath him, but the history still holds true that RBs who receive 375 f/carries (carries + 1/2 receptions) are at high risk of breaking down the following season. Not only that, but the worries about his surrounding offensive situation and his holdout proved very valid and he started off horribly slow, then only managed a couple good games against bottom-of-the-barrel run Ds. Steven Jackson also falls into this catagory as he also surpassed the 375 f/carry mark last year. His torn hamstring costed his owners a lot of productoin during his absence. The third, LT, is pretty much the exception to all rules. Luckily no RB hit that magic number this year, although Willie Parker was well on his way until breaking his leg. Clinton Portis came the closest at 348.
2) Avoid the 30ish RBs early on. Those expecting resurgent seasons from Shaun Alexander and Edgerrin James were sorely disappointed, especially Alexander as he costed a much higher price tag. Not only did he get hurt for the 2nd straight year, but he absolutely fell off the map during the 2nd half of the season. Edgerrin James continued his durability, but his production also took a nose-dive in the 2nd half of the season. Alexander seems likely to get a chance as the featured back again next year, but I wouldn't bother wasting my time with him. There's no upside left. James is likely headed for a committee as he winds down his career. Jamal Lewis and Fred Taylor are both up there in age, but they were drafted as RB3s, and they represent a much safer draft choice in that range.
3) Strongly consider offensive situation. Frank Gore was the perfect example of this. His skills didn't go anywhere, and he's still young, but the offense fell apart and he was directly a victim of the 49ers inability to pass the football. Adrian Peterson/Chester Taylor were an exception this year thanks to their incredible offensive line, but expect defenses to adjust. If the Vikings don't add a reliable veteran WR somewhere along the line, Peterson could suffer from a production drop like Gore experienced this season. Top rushers like LT, Westbrook, Parker, and Jamal Lewis (what the hell?) were on offenses that were balanced enough to keep defenses honest. Rivers and McNabb struggled a bit this year, but the defense still had to respect the passing game, and the runners benefitted.
4) Beware first time feature RBs. Talented RBs like Joseph Addai, Brandon Jacobs, Marshawn Lynch, and LenDale White all failed to play 16 games. None of them had been a feature NFL RB before, and it seems to have become a pattern that first timers either wear down like Addai and Lynch, or miss multiple games like Jacobs and White. All of these guys made solid draft choices, but as the season wears on, make sure to acquire an insurance policy in case you lose one when it matters most. Marion Barber, Michael Turner, and any rookie RB will likely fall into this catagory next season.
WR:
1) Identify potential breakout stars. These are guys in their 2nd or 3rd seasons that take the next step. Braylon Edwards, Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings, Santonio Holmes, and Roddy White all qualify for this catagory this year. All were huge draft day steals who paid dividends to their owners. Braylon Edwards was a bit of a surprise, but he produced no matter what the previous year down the stretch despite the QB carosel. Brandon Marshall flashed impressive skills his rookie season, and Walker's injury allowed him to shine. Santonio Holmes battled some nagging injuries, but he turned into one of the NFL's best deep threats and will continue getting better. Anderson's stabilization of the CLE QB situation took Edwards into the fantasy elite. Roddy White was the biggest surprise, and he really blossomed down the stretch once Chris Redman took over and started looking downfield more often. If Atlanta adds a reliable veteran QB, he'll be one to target next year. Dwayne Bowe, Calvin Johnson, and Ronald Curry are all guys to keep in mind for next season.
2) Consider QB changes. Andre Johnson is the biggest beneficiary of this as Kubiak's system finally added a QB in Schaub that matched his offense, and AJ boomed into the fantasy elite while healthy. WRs can have tremendous talent, but if they don't have the proper system around them, they won't realize it. AJ should be a stud for years to come.
3) Marques Colston is for real. He suffered from a slight sophmore slump, but he really turned it on in the 2nd half, and he's here to stay. The Saints still need to find a more reliable secondary target to complement him, but he's a borderline WR1, and will be for a while.
4) Anquan Boldin gets hurt too much. I love this dude's skills, and I think he's very similar to T.O. The problem is that he's been banged up quite a bit. I think he's entering a catagory of player where you just can't expect 16 games from him, and you have to analyze his draft day value accordingly.
TE:
1) Don't reach. Gates is great, but he's not worth taking so far ahead of the others. Let's see if his ADP adjusts next year. I made a huge mistake by drafting Vernon Davis too early in several drafts, thinking that he would break out and become the next great TE. The skills are there, but guys like Chris Cooley and Jason Witten were available much later. Analyze the passing offense for the pass catchers and wait around for one. Winslow was a much better risk as he not only came much later, but he also had huge upside with health concerns. If you screw up and take a bust TE with the 9th or 10th pick, it's not a huge deal. If your 5th or 6th round TE busts, it's a much bigger deal.
K:
1) As I say every year, there's absolutely no reason to be picking a kicker above the last round. Find an offense that you think will score a lot, preferably one that plays in a dome or in warm weather come December so you don't have to worry about him the last month, and grab him in the last round.
D/ST:
1) How did that Baltimore pick treat you this year? Again, don't draft a defense before the last several rounds. Very few defenses are worth playing every week anyways.
All Positions:
1) A solid indicator of breakout stars lies in looking at 2nd half boomers. These are guys who picked up their play in the 2nd half of the previous year. They don't necessarily have to light the fantasy football world on fire, but guys who showed progress as the season went along. Tony Romo, Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes, Chris Cooley, and Jason Witten all qualify for this year. Guys to keep an eye on for next year are Jay Cutler, Donovan McNabb, Laurence Maroney (the Pats will run him more next year), Ryan Grant, Roddy White, and Tony Scheffler.
I hope you guys all enjoyed another season of fantasy football in 2007. I certainly did, and I aim to bring you more detailed preseason assessments, more accurate observations, and a full season's worth of player updates later on this year. I don't anticipate running into another work-related episode like I did this past season as I'm looking for a job that won't do that to me again. :)
I'll be posting soon with some preliminary fantasy baseball thoughts. Cheers!
Post-Season QB Value Analysis
My ranking are based on standard scoring of 1 pt/25 yards passing, 1 pt/10 yards rushing, 6 pts/TD, and -2 pts/turnover.
What I Said: 1.11) Peyton Manning - Manning is over-valued this year.
What Happened: Manning finished as the #3 QB this season. Given he went about a round and a half before the next QB on average, it was a steep price to pay for his yearly consistency, especially at the expense of a RB1 or top WR. I'd give myself a solid grade here.
What I Said: 3.02) Carson Palmer - Palmer is a good value this year, and a much better value than Manning.
What Happened: Palmer finished as the #9 QB this season. Rudi Johnson's heavy workload of the past several years caught up to him, and he was hampered by a hamstring injury all year. Rudi, the past several years, balanced out the offense and provided a reliable power running game to complement Palmer's downfield attack. Palmer continues to utilize CJ and TJ to their strengths, but shoddy protection this year led to way too many mistakes (20 INT). I'd give myself a poor grade here as Palmer was NOT worth a 3rd round pick.
What I Said: 3.10) Tom Brady - Brady is a decent value this year.
What Happened: Tom Brady finished as the #1 QB this season. He was the top fantasy football player this year. I did note that he had the best talent of his career surrounding him, which should have been obvious to everyone. Randy Moss found his motivation, Stallworth did well after-the-catch, and Welker owned the middle of the field. Brady wasn't just a decent value, he was arguably a steal. I'd give myself an OK grade here.
What I Said: 3.12) Drew Brees - Brees is over-valued this year.
What Happened: Brees finished as the #5 QB this season. Brees got off to a dreadful start, and given he was likely a 3rd round pick, he probably hurt your team pretty bad in the first month. He rebounded and looked like the Brees of old down the stretch, but he was a much better buy-low candidate thanks to the slow start than he was a 3rd round pick. I'd give myself a solid grade here, although he definitely proved his worth in the 2nd half of the season.
What I Said: 4.05) Marc Bulger - Bulger is a solid value this year.
What Happened: Bulger finished as a disaster. The Rams offensive line was absolutely ravaged by injuries, and thanks to the poor protection, Bulger got hit early and often, and this led to numerous injuries and a lot of missed games. Bulger had not completed a 16 game season prior to his stellar 2006 season, and I should have factored that in, although nobody could have predicted the amount of injuries to the Rams offensive line. I'll give myself a poor grade here, but injuries aren't always predictable.
What I Said: 4.10) Donovan McNabb - There's a lot of varying opinions on him this year, but I believe McNabb is a solid value.
What Happened: McNabb finished as the #12 QB this season. He started off slow, as I mentioned, turned in a monster game against Detroit, which at the time looked like the start of his rebound, and then he regressed back to a very medicore QB1. He did finish the season strong, but it was too late for those who selected him in the 5th round. Westbrook rightfully became the focal point of the offense. I learned that these knee injuries are tricky, and given McNabb relies on his mobility to be an effective passer, it affected him more than Palmer. Once he got used to becoming more of a pocket passer, he settled in and looked very good. The injury forced him to change his style, and that took too long of an adjustment period. I'd give myself a poor grade here for not having the foresight to see that happening.
What I Said: 6.01) Jon Kitna - Kitna is a good value this year.
What Happened: Kitna finished as the #14 QB this season. Everything seemed to be in place for him to repeat his 2006 success, but after a very strong start, things fell apart in a hurry. Calvin Johnson was overrated heading into the season, and he looked like most rookie WRs: lost. He dropped passes, ran wrong routes, and was hardly a reliable WR2 to keep attention off of Roy Williams. Shaun McDonald emerged as a decent WR2, but Mike Furrey disappeared. Once defense adjusted and only worried about Williams, Kitna looked lost. Martz refused to stay committed to the running game, and called for too many downfield routes, leaving Kitna in the pocket to get hammered all season long. It's amazing he lasted 16 games. I'd give myself a poor grade here, but Martz deserves part of the blame. :)
What I Said: 6.09) Matt Hasselbeck - Hasselbeck is over-valued this year.
What Happened: Hasselbeck finished as the #7 QB this season. Given he was taken 8th overall on average, he lived up to his draft position, and better yet, he closed the season very strong. Once Alexander predictably showed his age, Holmgren adjusted his offense to become very pass-happy, and Hasselbeck's fantasy owners were a huge beneficiary of that. Given I told everyone to stay away from Alexander this season, I should have realized that Hasselbeck would benefit from Alexander not scoring all the time. I'll apply that next year. I'll give myself a poor grade here.
What I Said: 7.05) Tony Romo - Tony Romo is a good value this year.
What Happened: Romo finished as the #2 QB this season. I was money on this prediction. Romo was a stud the entire year, although he looked lost when Owens got hurt in week 15. Unfortunately that was the worst possible time for that to happen, but Romo most likely advanced his fantasy teams into the playoffs and should be a perenial top 5 option as long as Owens remains dominant. The Cowboys just don't have the WR depth behind Owens. I'll give myself a good grade here.
What I Said: 7.05) Phillip Rivers - Rivers is slightly over-valued.
What Happened: Rivers finished as the #16 QB this season. Rivers was over-valued, and I was right on here. He did not take that next step this season, and he actually regressed. The Chargers did acquire Chris Chambers, but he still remained inconsistent afterwards, which was a problem for him all season. He ran his mouth too much and didn't back up any of it. I'm not sure what to think of him as a QB moving forward, although Norv Turner has a solid track record of developing young QBs. Perhaps it was an offensive scheme change that caused this. I'll give myself a solid grade here.
What I Said: 8.06) Vince Young - Vince Young is slightly over-valued.
What Happened: Young finished as the #18 QB this season. Like Rivers, he also regressed as teams focused on stopping his rushing ability and giving him lanes to pass through. He didn't take advantage, although the disgusting lack of talent at WR and TE on the Titans doesn't do him any favors whatsoever. He can't do everything on his own. I'll give myself a solid grade here.
What I Said: 8.06) Matt Leinart - Matt Leinart is a good value.
What Happened: A complete mess followed by season-ending collarbone break. I was way off on this one. News leaked out that Leinart was putting far more attention into partying and being "Hollywood" than he did studying the playbook, and the results sure proved that. He turned in 2 poor performances, he started splitting time with a far more effective Kurt Warner, and then he broke his collarbone. Warner showed what that offense can do with a solid QB, which is move the ball effectively. Leinart better get himself into the film room and out of the way of the cameras. I'll give myself a poor grade here as the injury was hardly the source of the problem.
What I Said: 9.02) Jay Cutler - Jay Cutler is a good value.
What Happened: Cutler finished as the #11 QB this season. He was drafted as a fringe starter, and while I stated that was his downside, that's how he ended up. Once Javon Walker proved unable to play through his ailing knee, Cutler found a new favorite target in Brandon Marshall. Once Tony Scheffler recovered from his broken foot, he finally added a secondary option. He again showed promise, but remained a much better matchup QB than a weekly option. I'll give myself a solid grade here as the lack of receiving targets stunted his development, and I did mention what his downside was.
What I Said: 9.12) Eli Manning - Manning is a good value.
What Happened: Manning finished as the #13 QB. Manning wasn't a "good" value as much as he was a "solid" value. He looked very good to start the season, but once Burress' injured ankle started slowing him down, Manning lost his deep threat. Steve Smith suffered his own injury, and then Shockey battled his usual assortment of nagging injuries before breaking his leg. The injuries to all his weapons certainly stunted his fantasy potential, and it shows how important the health of the weapons are to a QB's fantasy potential. I'll give myself an OK grade here.
What I Said: 10.03) Ben Roethlisberger - Roethlisberger is my favorite value pick at QB this season.
What Happened: Roethlisberger finished as the #4 QB this season. This was my money pick, and I targeted him in every draft, acquiring him in all but 1. Big Ben proved that last season was a fluke and become just short of a fantasy stud. Holmes has emerged as one of the game's better deep threats, Ward is a steady possession receiver, and Heath Miller did well over the middle, but is still under-utilized. If you waited to nab your starting QB until the 10th round, you likely built up quite a roster before worrying about your QB. With the uncertainty ahead of him, Big Ben (and waiver picks like Warner and Anderson) prove that you do NOT need to waste a high pick on a starting QB when you can further your depth at other positions instead. I'll give myself a solid grade here.
Summary:
Solid Grades: 7
OK Grades: 2
Poor Grades: 6
9/15 isn't too bad. I of course learned even more this year about where to find the values, and what all to take into consideration when determining what a QB's value is. I still firmly believe that this value-based approach is far better than simply putting a top 15 list together for your draft day preparation.
What I Said: 1.11) Peyton Manning - Manning is over-valued this year.
What Happened: Manning finished as the #3 QB this season. Given he went about a round and a half before the next QB on average, it was a steep price to pay for his yearly consistency, especially at the expense of a RB1 or top WR. I'd give myself a solid grade here.
What I Said: 3.02) Carson Palmer - Palmer is a good value this year, and a much better value than Manning.
What Happened: Palmer finished as the #9 QB this season. Rudi Johnson's heavy workload of the past several years caught up to him, and he was hampered by a hamstring injury all year. Rudi, the past several years, balanced out the offense and provided a reliable power running game to complement Palmer's downfield attack. Palmer continues to utilize CJ and TJ to their strengths, but shoddy protection this year led to way too many mistakes (20 INT). I'd give myself a poor grade here as Palmer was NOT worth a 3rd round pick.
What I Said: 3.10) Tom Brady - Brady is a decent value this year.
What Happened: Tom Brady finished as the #1 QB this season. He was the top fantasy football player this year. I did note that he had the best talent of his career surrounding him, which should have been obvious to everyone. Randy Moss found his motivation, Stallworth did well after-the-catch, and Welker owned the middle of the field. Brady wasn't just a decent value, he was arguably a steal. I'd give myself an OK grade here.
What I Said: 3.12) Drew Brees - Brees is over-valued this year.
What Happened: Brees finished as the #5 QB this season. Brees got off to a dreadful start, and given he was likely a 3rd round pick, he probably hurt your team pretty bad in the first month. He rebounded and looked like the Brees of old down the stretch, but he was a much better buy-low candidate thanks to the slow start than he was a 3rd round pick. I'd give myself a solid grade here, although he definitely proved his worth in the 2nd half of the season.
What I Said: 4.05) Marc Bulger - Bulger is a solid value this year.
What Happened: Bulger finished as a disaster. The Rams offensive line was absolutely ravaged by injuries, and thanks to the poor protection, Bulger got hit early and often, and this led to numerous injuries and a lot of missed games. Bulger had not completed a 16 game season prior to his stellar 2006 season, and I should have factored that in, although nobody could have predicted the amount of injuries to the Rams offensive line. I'll give myself a poor grade here, but injuries aren't always predictable.
What I Said: 4.10) Donovan McNabb - There's a lot of varying opinions on him this year, but I believe McNabb is a solid value.
What Happened: McNabb finished as the #12 QB this season. He started off slow, as I mentioned, turned in a monster game against Detroit, which at the time looked like the start of his rebound, and then he regressed back to a very medicore QB1. He did finish the season strong, but it was too late for those who selected him in the 5th round. Westbrook rightfully became the focal point of the offense. I learned that these knee injuries are tricky, and given McNabb relies on his mobility to be an effective passer, it affected him more than Palmer. Once he got used to becoming more of a pocket passer, he settled in and looked very good. The injury forced him to change his style, and that took too long of an adjustment period. I'd give myself a poor grade here for not having the foresight to see that happening.
What I Said: 6.01) Jon Kitna - Kitna is a good value this year.
What Happened: Kitna finished as the #14 QB this season. Everything seemed to be in place for him to repeat his 2006 success, but after a very strong start, things fell apart in a hurry. Calvin Johnson was overrated heading into the season, and he looked like most rookie WRs: lost. He dropped passes, ran wrong routes, and was hardly a reliable WR2 to keep attention off of Roy Williams. Shaun McDonald emerged as a decent WR2, but Mike Furrey disappeared. Once defense adjusted and only worried about Williams, Kitna looked lost. Martz refused to stay committed to the running game, and called for too many downfield routes, leaving Kitna in the pocket to get hammered all season long. It's amazing he lasted 16 games. I'd give myself a poor grade here, but Martz deserves part of the blame. :)
What I Said: 6.09) Matt Hasselbeck - Hasselbeck is over-valued this year.
What Happened: Hasselbeck finished as the #7 QB this season. Given he was taken 8th overall on average, he lived up to his draft position, and better yet, he closed the season very strong. Once Alexander predictably showed his age, Holmgren adjusted his offense to become very pass-happy, and Hasselbeck's fantasy owners were a huge beneficiary of that. Given I told everyone to stay away from Alexander this season, I should have realized that Hasselbeck would benefit from Alexander not scoring all the time. I'll apply that next year. I'll give myself a poor grade here.
What I Said: 7.05) Tony Romo - Tony Romo is a good value this year.
What Happened: Romo finished as the #2 QB this season. I was money on this prediction. Romo was a stud the entire year, although he looked lost when Owens got hurt in week 15. Unfortunately that was the worst possible time for that to happen, but Romo most likely advanced his fantasy teams into the playoffs and should be a perenial top 5 option as long as Owens remains dominant. The Cowboys just don't have the WR depth behind Owens. I'll give myself a good grade here.
What I Said: 7.05) Phillip Rivers - Rivers is slightly over-valued.
What Happened: Rivers finished as the #16 QB this season. Rivers was over-valued, and I was right on here. He did not take that next step this season, and he actually regressed. The Chargers did acquire Chris Chambers, but he still remained inconsistent afterwards, which was a problem for him all season. He ran his mouth too much and didn't back up any of it. I'm not sure what to think of him as a QB moving forward, although Norv Turner has a solid track record of developing young QBs. Perhaps it was an offensive scheme change that caused this. I'll give myself a solid grade here.
What I Said: 8.06) Vince Young - Vince Young is slightly over-valued.
What Happened: Young finished as the #18 QB this season. Like Rivers, he also regressed as teams focused on stopping his rushing ability and giving him lanes to pass through. He didn't take advantage, although the disgusting lack of talent at WR and TE on the Titans doesn't do him any favors whatsoever. He can't do everything on his own. I'll give myself a solid grade here.
What I Said: 8.06) Matt Leinart - Matt Leinart is a good value.
What Happened: A complete mess followed by season-ending collarbone break. I was way off on this one. News leaked out that Leinart was putting far more attention into partying and being "Hollywood" than he did studying the playbook, and the results sure proved that. He turned in 2 poor performances, he started splitting time with a far more effective Kurt Warner, and then he broke his collarbone. Warner showed what that offense can do with a solid QB, which is move the ball effectively. Leinart better get himself into the film room and out of the way of the cameras. I'll give myself a poor grade here as the injury was hardly the source of the problem.
What I Said: 9.02) Jay Cutler - Jay Cutler is a good value.
What Happened: Cutler finished as the #11 QB this season. He was drafted as a fringe starter, and while I stated that was his downside, that's how he ended up. Once Javon Walker proved unable to play through his ailing knee, Cutler found a new favorite target in Brandon Marshall. Once Tony Scheffler recovered from his broken foot, he finally added a secondary option. He again showed promise, but remained a much better matchup QB than a weekly option. I'll give myself a solid grade here as the lack of receiving targets stunted his development, and I did mention what his downside was.
What I Said: 9.12) Eli Manning - Manning is a good value.
What Happened: Manning finished as the #13 QB. Manning wasn't a "good" value as much as he was a "solid" value. He looked very good to start the season, but once Burress' injured ankle started slowing him down, Manning lost his deep threat. Steve Smith suffered his own injury, and then Shockey battled his usual assortment of nagging injuries before breaking his leg. The injuries to all his weapons certainly stunted his fantasy potential, and it shows how important the health of the weapons are to a QB's fantasy potential. I'll give myself an OK grade here.
What I Said: 10.03) Ben Roethlisberger - Roethlisberger is my favorite value pick at QB this season.
What Happened: Roethlisberger finished as the #4 QB this season. This was my money pick, and I targeted him in every draft, acquiring him in all but 1. Big Ben proved that last season was a fluke and become just short of a fantasy stud. Holmes has emerged as one of the game's better deep threats, Ward is a steady possession receiver, and Heath Miller did well over the middle, but is still under-utilized. If you waited to nab your starting QB until the 10th round, you likely built up quite a roster before worrying about your QB. With the uncertainty ahead of him, Big Ben (and waiver picks like Warner and Anderson) prove that you do NOT need to waste a high pick on a starting QB when you can further your depth at other positions instead. I'll give myself a solid grade here.
Summary:
Solid Grades: 7
OK Grades: 2
Poor Grades: 6
9/15 isn't too bad. I of course learned even more this year about where to find the values, and what all to take into consideration when determining what a QB's value is. I still firmly believe that this value-based approach is far better than simply putting a top 15 list together for your draft day preparation.
Saturday, December 22, 2007
Hiatus Ends
My Team:
So, who's all battling for the fantasy championship in their league? I've made it there in one of my three leagues, and I'm using the following lineup:
QB: Ben Roethlisberger
RB: Brian Westbrook
RB: Frank Gore
WR: Reggie Wayne
WR: Andre Johnson
WR: Anquan Boldin
TE: Tony Scheffler
K: Shayne Graham
D/ST: MIN
My current lineup looks nothing like the one I started the year with, but I had a poor draft and had to use waiver wire pickups/trades to re-build my team. Big Ben and AJ are sadly the only players I drafted, but I did a good job selling high on Reggie Bush, LaMont Jordan, and Roy Williams to get me to where I am.
This Week:
The Colts are very tricky this week. Dungy says he'll play them a usual amount, but don't listen to what he says....logic states that they'll be rested quite a bit. I'd have a hard time benching Manning or Wayne as they'll likely put up a half of very good production against a weak Houston secondary. Gonzalez should be a safe WR3 as well this week as he might play the most of the starters, plus coaches don't usually worry about WRs as much. Dallas Clark is a decent TE1, but his recent inconsistent play is cause for concern. Addai, however, is a very risky start. There's no way he plays more than a half, and that's his ceiling of playing time. Unless you have a very weak 3rd option, I'd consider sitting him.
The Patriots might pull their starters a little earlier than usual once they get out to a comfortable lead, but I'd consider Brady, Maroney, Moss, and Welker all safe starts. Stallworth is losing snaps to Gaffney and isn't worth using as a WR3. Ben Watson is a poor bet as he's pretty worthless unless you get a TD from him.
The Packers are playing for homefield advantage, and Favre will want to avenge the loss to the Bears earlier this season. The Packers were killing the Bears in the first half, then inexplicably took their foot off the gas pedal in the 2nd half and watched the game slip away. Play Fave, Grant, Driver, Jennings, and Lee as you usually would.
You don't have to worry about any other teams resting players. Keep an eye on Westbrook's status tomorrow, but he's expected to start, and we've seen this song and dance plenty of times where he doen't practice, but then puts up his 100+ total yards. Let's hope we get one more week of that, preferably without the kneel down at the one. That cost my a playoff win last week, but Brady's horrible game and Galloway's 0 didn't help either.
Fitzgerald and Boldin are both gametime decisions, but Boldin put in a lot of work before taking Friday off this week and appears close to full health. Fitzgerald should not be benched, but won't be 100%, and he appears worse for the wear than Boldin does. Warner should find plenty of both of them against a poor Falcons secondary.
Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew should both post solid stats against a hideous Oakland run D. I got stopped in the playoffs last week in one league thanks to Addai's hideous game against the Raiders, but you can blame that squarely on the shoulders of either OC Tom Moore or Manning as they stubbornly, and ineffectively, tried to throw the ball all over the place against a strong secondary and poor run D. Jacksonville won't make the same mistake.
Shanahanigans? Yup, full force. Don't even think about using Selvin Young or Travis Henry this week. Thanks to Henry's injuries and legal problems, yet another timeshare has reared its ugly head in Denver.
Going Forward:
I will do a full wrapup of my QB value picks after this week, and I'll also post some lessons learned. Then, it's about time to start thinking fantasy baseball... :)
So, who's all battling for the fantasy championship in their league? I've made it there in one of my three leagues, and I'm using the following lineup:
QB: Ben Roethlisberger
RB: Brian Westbrook
RB: Frank Gore
WR: Reggie Wayne
WR: Andre Johnson
WR: Anquan Boldin
TE: Tony Scheffler
K: Shayne Graham
D/ST: MIN
My current lineup looks nothing like the one I started the year with, but I had a poor draft and had to use waiver wire pickups/trades to re-build my team. Big Ben and AJ are sadly the only players I drafted, but I did a good job selling high on Reggie Bush, LaMont Jordan, and Roy Williams to get me to where I am.
This Week:
The Colts are very tricky this week. Dungy says he'll play them a usual amount, but don't listen to what he says....logic states that they'll be rested quite a bit. I'd have a hard time benching Manning or Wayne as they'll likely put up a half of very good production against a weak Houston secondary. Gonzalez should be a safe WR3 as well this week as he might play the most of the starters, plus coaches don't usually worry about WRs as much. Dallas Clark is a decent TE1, but his recent inconsistent play is cause for concern. Addai, however, is a very risky start. There's no way he plays more than a half, and that's his ceiling of playing time. Unless you have a very weak 3rd option, I'd consider sitting him.
The Patriots might pull their starters a little earlier than usual once they get out to a comfortable lead, but I'd consider Brady, Maroney, Moss, and Welker all safe starts. Stallworth is losing snaps to Gaffney and isn't worth using as a WR3. Ben Watson is a poor bet as he's pretty worthless unless you get a TD from him.
The Packers are playing for homefield advantage, and Favre will want to avenge the loss to the Bears earlier this season. The Packers were killing the Bears in the first half, then inexplicably took their foot off the gas pedal in the 2nd half and watched the game slip away. Play Fave, Grant, Driver, Jennings, and Lee as you usually would.
You don't have to worry about any other teams resting players. Keep an eye on Westbrook's status tomorrow, but he's expected to start, and we've seen this song and dance plenty of times where he doen't practice, but then puts up his 100+ total yards. Let's hope we get one more week of that, preferably without the kneel down at the one. That cost my a playoff win last week, but Brady's horrible game and Galloway's 0 didn't help either.
Fitzgerald and Boldin are both gametime decisions, but Boldin put in a lot of work before taking Friday off this week and appears close to full health. Fitzgerald should not be benched, but won't be 100%, and he appears worse for the wear than Boldin does. Warner should find plenty of both of them against a poor Falcons secondary.
Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew should both post solid stats against a hideous Oakland run D. I got stopped in the playoffs last week in one league thanks to Addai's hideous game against the Raiders, but you can blame that squarely on the shoulders of either OC Tom Moore or Manning as they stubbornly, and ineffectively, tried to throw the ball all over the place against a strong secondary and poor run D. Jacksonville won't make the same mistake.
Shanahanigans? Yup, full force. Don't even think about using Selvin Young or Travis Henry this week. Thanks to Henry's injuries and legal problems, yet another timeshare has reared its ugly head in Denver.
Going Forward:
I will do a full wrapup of my QB value picks after this week, and I'll also post some lessons learned. Then, it's about time to start thinking fantasy baseball... :)
Saturday, December 8, 2007
Hiatus Coming To An End?
Well, I'm out of sick days, so I might as well call in dead.
Thanks to work obligations taking up pretty much all of my week and some of my weekend, I haven't had time to write during my favorite part of the year. Unfortunately I'm finishing up this ridiculous project way too late to be of much assistance to fantasy football owners. Why couldn't this have happened from January to April when nothing is going on in baseball/football? My project ends this coming Friday, and I'll finally be able to contribute to my blog again.
I'll note some start/sit ideas for the fantasy playoffs (weeks 15 and 16), and I'll try to do something for the gameday actives/inactive on Sunday. Hopefully some of my 3 readers have hung with me and will start checking this again. Once the season is over, I'll look back through my QB value ratings that I did during the preseason and see how I did. I also promised to look through my buy/sell suggestions for baseball, and once football season is over and baseball preparation starts creeping into people's minds, I will definitely address that as well.
So, all in all, I'll be looking forward to doing more writing, hopefully starting this weekend, but most likely starting late next week.
Thanks to work obligations taking up pretty much all of my week and some of my weekend, I haven't had time to write during my favorite part of the year. Unfortunately I'm finishing up this ridiculous project way too late to be of much assistance to fantasy football owners. Why couldn't this have happened from January to April when nothing is going on in baseball/football? My project ends this coming Friday, and I'll finally be able to contribute to my blog again.
I'll note some start/sit ideas for the fantasy playoffs (weeks 15 and 16), and I'll try to do something for the gameday actives/inactive on Sunday. Hopefully some of my 3 readers have hung with me and will start checking this again. Once the season is over, I'll look back through my QB value ratings that I did during the preseason and see how I did. I also promised to look through my buy/sell suggestions for baseball, and once football season is over and baseball preparation starts creeping into people's minds, I will definitely address that as well.
So, all in all, I'll be looking forward to doing more writing, hopefully starting this weekend, but most likely starting late next week.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Hiatus Continued Yet Again
Hey Everyone
Well, thanks to 2 crazy days at work last week combined with my vacation to Nevada/Las Vegas that started yesterday, I again was unable to do a weekly review. I apologize again to everyone that reads my writing and I promise to get back to it again soon. I'm on vacation until Wednesday of next week, so I will do my best to post a week 11 review after the games this weekend, although it might be delayed until later in the week.
Jeff
Well, thanks to 2 crazy days at work last week combined with my vacation to Nevada/Las Vegas that started yesterday, I again was unable to do a weekly review. I apologize again to everyone that reads my writing and I promise to get back to it again soon. I'm on vacation until Wednesday of next week, so I will do my best to post a week 11 review after the games this weekend, although it might be delayed until later in the week.
Jeff
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Hiatus Continued, Plus Notes
Work has slowed down, but I'm in Boston for a mini-vacation over the weekend. I won't be able to post anything until I return on Monday, and I promise to post a Week 10 wrapup.
A couple notes:
1) The Patriots are on bye, so you'll have a chance to beat the Brady owner this week.
2) Do NOT go crazy over Priest Holmes. We all remember him leading us to fantasy titles as one of the most dominant fantasy players for a few years. He has a solid matchup against Denver and will probably get 10-15 carries including the goal line work, but we're talking about a 34 year old RB on a below-average offense. He still provides valuable depth, but Kolby Smith is worth owning as well. There's a chance LJ could be out for the year with that foot injury. The Denver Post reported it, but of course the team denies it. It was a nasty injury.
3) Hope that JP Losman continues to start for the Bills. He actually cares about getting Lee Evans the ball, which goes against the wishes of Trent Edwards and most of the coaching staff.
4) Travis Henry has a real chance of playing the rest of the year as his trial keeps getting pushed back. However, do NOT drop Selvin Young. Henry is starting to get banged up, and there's still a good chance that the suspension could be handed down prior to the end of the year.
5) Shaun Alexander has officially broken down. I warned everyone about this when the season began. He is all but done.
6) Steven Jackson will be limited in his return this week, so don't expect RB1 numbers from him.
7) There's talk that the original Adrian Peterson could start stealing carries from Cedric Benson, but don't get carried away. The Bears have too much invested into Benson to not let him play out the season, so the other AP is still a Benson injury away from having fantasy value. A 50/50 split is as good as AP speculators can hope for at the moment, and I don't even see that happening yet.
8) I love Big Ben for helping me overcome a 12 points deficit, Willie Parker, and Heath Miller with his monster performance on MNF.
So, here are my teams:
Team 1 (6-3, 3rd place)
QB: Ben Roethlisberger, Kurt Warner
RB: Joseph Addai, Brandon Jacobs, Kenny Watson, Priest Holmes, Selvin Young, Kenton Keith
WR: Randy Moss, Roy Williams, Brandon Marshall, Kevin Curtis, Chris Henry
TE: Chris Cooley
Team 2 (4-5, 6th place - horrible luck with catching a ton of high scoring teams)
QB: Jon Kitna, Vince Young
RB: Joseph Addai, Brandon Jacobs, Ryan Grant, Priest Holmes, Kenton Keith, Derrick Ward
WR: Plaxico Burres, Roy Williams, Anquan Boldin, Ronald Curry, Ted Ginn Jr.
TE: Vernon Davis
Team 3 (4-5, 6th place)
QB: Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning
RB: Brian Westbrook, Frank Gore, Maurice Hicks, Kolby Smith, Correll Buckhalter
WR: Roy Williams, Andre Johnson, Lee Evans, Kevin Curtis, D.J. Hackett, Patrick Crayton
TE: Vernon Davis
Team 1: No trades...all drafted players and waiver pickups.
Team 2: I traded Andre Johnson and Eli Manning for Anquan Boldin and Vince Young, and that'll probably backfire since I did it to get through AJ's injury since my team kept losing. Boldin gave me 14 yards last week, so that worked out well. He better blow up Sunday and outproduce AJ the rest of the way.
Team 3: I did the most work with this team. I traded Reggie Bush for Clinton Portis a couple weeks into the season, then spun Clinton Portis and LaMont Jordan for Brian Westbrook shortly after that. I made a boneheaded move of dealing Willis McGahee for Frank Gore, and then they revealed Gore was hurt. I didn't have a great draft, but I've fixed my RB positions if Gore can get healthy for a stretch run.
Good times, and I'll see you guys on Monday.
A couple notes:
1) The Patriots are on bye, so you'll have a chance to beat the Brady owner this week.
2) Do NOT go crazy over Priest Holmes. We all remember him leading us to fantasy titles as one of the most dominant fantasy players for a few years. He has a solid matchup against Denver and will probably get 10-15 carries including the goal line work, but we're talking about a 34 year old RB on a below-average offense. He still provides valuable depth, but Kolby Smith is worth owning as well. There's a chance LJ could be out for the year with that foot injury. The Denver Post reported it, but of course the team denies it. It was a nasty injury.
3) Hope that JP Losman continues to start for the Bills. He actually cares about getting Lee Evans the ball, which goes against the wishes of Trent Edwards and most of the coaching staff.
4) Travis Henry has a real chance of playing the rest of the year as his trial keeps getting pushed back. However, do NOT drop Selvin Young. Henry is starting to get banged up, and there's still a good chance that the suspension could be handed down prior to the end of the year.
5) Shaun Alexander has officially broken down. I warned everyone about this when the season began. He is all but done.
6) Steven Jackson will be limited in his return this week, so don't expect RB1 numbers from him.
7) There's talk that the original Adrian Peterson could start stealing carries from Cedric Benson, but don't get carried away. The Bears have too much invested into Benson to not let him play out the season, so the other AP is still a Benson injury away from having fantasy value. A 50/50 split is as good as AP speculators can hope for at the moment, and I don't even see that happening yet.
8) I love Big Ben for helping me overcome a 12 points deficit, Willie Parker, and Heath Miller with his monster performance on MNF.
So, here are my teams:
Team 1 (6-3, 3rd place)
QB: Ben Roethlisberger, Kurt Warner
RB: Joseph Addai, Brandon Jacobs, Kenny Watson, Priest Holmes, Selvin Young, Kenton Keith
WR: Randy Moss, Roy Williams, Brandon Marshall, Kevin Curtis, Chris Henry
TE: Chris Cooley
Team 2 (4-5, 6th place - horrible luck with catching a ton of high scoring teams)
QB: Jon Kitna, Vince Young
RB: Joseph Addai, Brandon Jacobs, Ryan Grant, Priest Holmes, Kenton Keith, Derrick Ward
WR: Plaxico Burres, Roy Williams, Anquan Boldin, Ronald Curry, Ted Ginn Jr.
TE: Vernon Davis
Team 3 (4-5, 6th place)
QB: Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning
RB: Brian Westbrook, Frank Gore, Maurice Hicks, Kolby Smith, Correll Buckhalter
WR: Roy Williams, Andre Johnson, Lee Evans, Kevin Curtis, D.J. Hackett, Patrick Crayton
TE: Vernon Davis
Team 1: No trades...all drafted players and waiver pickups.
Team 2: I traded Andre Johnson and Eli Manning for Anquan Boldin and Vince Young, and that'll probably backfire since I did it to get through AJ's injury since my team kept losing. Boldin gave me 14 yards last week, so that worked out well. He better blow up Sunday and outproduce AJ the rest of the way.
Team 3: I did the most work with this team. I traded Reggie Bush for Clinton Portis a couple weeks into the season, then spun Clinton Portis and LaMont Jordan for Brian Westbrook shortly after that. I made a boneheaded move of dealing Willis McGahee for Frank Gore, and then they revealed Gore was hurt. I didn't have a great draft, but I've fixed my RB positions if Gore can get healthy for a stretch run.
Good times, and I'll see you guys on Monday.
Saturday, November 3, 2007
Hiatus
I'm spending almost every waking hour at work these days, so I haven't had time to post a review of week 8 or an injury update for week 9. I apologize to everyone. I will be around to list gameday inactives tomorrow, however.
Thursday, October 25, 2007
NFL Week 8: Injury Report
* If I have not listed a player here, he's in no danger of missing this week's game.
QB
Trent Edwards - No injury here, but he has officially become the Buffalo Bills starter for the rest of the season.
Trent Green - Green suffered a severe concussion in week 5, he will not play again this year, and he could retire as a result. Drop him in all leagues. Cleo Lemon will start for the forseeable future, but he's probably just keeping the seat warm for rookie John Beck.
Chad Pennington - No injury here, but he's on a very short leash with youngster Kellen Clemens ready to take over. Pennington was declared the starter for week 8, but it's only a matter of time before he loses the job.
Steve McNair - McNair suffered a groin injury in week 5, and he hasn't played since. He is expected to return this week, but watch practice reports to make sure. Kyle Boller would start in his place if McNair can't go.
Matt Schaub - Schaub suffered several injuries in week 7, but he is expected to return this week. He was limited in practice on Wednesday. Sage Rosenfels would start in his place if Schaub can't go.
David Garrard - Garrard suffered a high ankle sprain in week 7, and he is out indefinitely. Quinn Gray will start.
Vince Young - Young suffered a strained quad in week 6, but he is expected to return this week. He returned to practice on Wednesday.
Josh McCown - McCown suffered a torn toe ligament in week 3, and he is questionable to return this week. Duante Culpepper still doesn't have the confidence of the coaching staff as they appear ready to start McCown again once he heals.
Tavaris Jackson - Jackson suffered a broken finger in week 7, and he is out this week. Kelly Holcomb will start.
Byron Leftwich - Leftwich suffered a high ankle sprain in week 7, and he is out indefinitely. Joey Harrington still start.
David Carr - Carr suffered a back injury in week 5, but he is likely to return this week. He practiced on Wednesday and Thursday.
Alex Smith - Smith suffered a separated shoulder in week 4, but he will return this week. He practiced on Wednesday.
RB
Ronnie Brown - Brown suffered a torn ACL in week 7, and he is out for the season. Jesse Chatman will start.
Laurence Maroney - Maroney suffered a groin injury in week 2, he returned in a limited fashion in week 7, and will return to full duty in week 8.
Rudi Johnson - Johnson suffered a hamstring injury in week 3, and he is expected to miss this week. Kenny Watson will start.
Jamal Lewis - Lewis suffered a foot injury in week 5, and he is questionable to return this week. If he can't play, Jason Wright will start again, and Jerome Harrison will be mixed in as well.
Joseph Addai - Addai suffered a hand injury in week 7, but he returned later in the game. The big news is that given Addai's penchant to get nicked up, even though it's never cost him more than a handful of snaps, Tony Dungy has decided to use Kenton Keith more in games. This will not be a 50/50 split, but apparently Dungy is worried that Addai just can't carry the full load. Don't panic as Addai will still be plenty valuable, but he's not going to receive 25-30 touches any more in all likelihood.
Maurice Jones-Drew - MJD suffered a sprained knee in week 7, and he is questionable for this week. He continues to say that it's nothing to worry about and that he's fine, but he missed practice on Wednesday.
Chris Brown - Brown suffered an ankle injury in week 6, and he is questionable for this week. If he misses another game, it'll make LenDale White a great play. He could eventually be replaced by Chris Henry.
Travis Henry - Henry suffered a rib injury in week 7, and he is questionable for this week. He missed practice on Wednesday. Selvin Young would start in his place, but it sounds like Andre Hall will play a role as well.
DeShaun Foster - Foster suffered a turf toe injury in week 6, and he is questionable for this week. Even if he plays, he won't be worth using.
Frank Gore - Gore suffered a sprained ankle in week 7, but he is probable for this week. He missed practice on Wednesday, but he is expected to return later this week.
Steven Jackson - Jackson suffered a torn groin in week 3, but he will return this week. He practiced on Wednesday.
WR
Andre Johnson - Johnson suffered a sprained knee in week 2, and he is out this week. He's likely to return in week 11, and he'll be replaced by some combination of Kevin Walter and Andre Davis.
Marvin Harrison - Harrison suffered a sprained knee in week 5, but he is probable for this week. He missed practice on Wednesday, but he is likely to return to practice later this week.
Javon Walker - Walker suffered a knee injury in week 3, and he is out indefinitely. He underwent arthroscopic surgery to clean his knee out, and his current timetable is 6 weeks.
Plaxico Burress - Burress suffered a severely sprained ankle in week 2, but he is probable for this week. He has missed every practice since the injury, but he hasn't missed a game yet.
Santana Moss - Moss suffered a hamstring injury in week 3, and he hasn't looked right since. He is probable for this week, but it seems very risky to use him given the 0s (or worse) that he's posted since returning.
Darrell Jackson - Jackson suffered a strained quad in week 7, and he is questionable for this week. Given what little he's offered his owners, I imagine you have better alternatives anyways. He missed practice on Wednesday.
D.J. Hackett - Hackett suffered a high ankle sprain in week 1, and he is on bye this week, but he seems probable to return in week 9. If you have WR depth problems or someone you want to drop, go get Hackett now. He's likely to be a solid fantasy contributor once he returns.
TE
Ben Watson - Watson suffered an ankle injury in week 6, and he is out indefinitely. Kyle Brady will start and can be used in a pinch.
Todd Heap - Heap suffered a strained hamstring in week 4, and he is expected to return after the team's bye this week.
Tony Scheffler - Scheffler suffered a sprained ankle in week 7, but he is probable for this week. He practiced on Wednesday. With Javon Walker out, he's a strong candidate to turn in a solid 2nd half, and can be picked up as a TE2.
L.J. Smith - Smith underwent hernia surgery prior to the season, and he is questionable this week. He's worth keeping an eye on if you have TE problems.
Bubba Franks - Franks suffered a sprained knee in week 5, and he is out for this week. Donald Lee becomes a great option at TE with Franks out.
Alge Crumpler - Crumpler is suffering from a knee injury that he had surgery on prior to the season, but he is expected to return after the team's bye this week. He has questionable TE1 value upon his return.
QB
Trent Edwards - No injury here, but he has officially become the Buffalo Bills starter for the rest of the season.
Trent Green - Green suffered a severe concussion in week 5, he will not play again this year, and he could retire as a result. Drop him in all leagues. Cleo Lemon will start for the forseeable future, but he's probably just keeping the seat warm for rookie John Beck.
Chad Pennington - No injury here, but he's on a very short leash with youngster Kellen Clemens ready to take over. Pennington was declared the starter for week 8, but it's only a matter of time before he loses the job.
Steve McNair - McNair suffered a groin injury in week 5, and he hasn't played since. He is expected to return this week, but watch practice reports to make sure. Kyle Boller would start in his place if McNair can't go.
Matt Schaub - Schaub suffered several injuries in week 7, but he is expected to return this week. He was limited in practice on Wednesday. Sage Rosenfels would start in his place if Schaub can't go.
David Garrard - Garrard suffered a high ankle sprain in week 7, and he is out indefinitely. Quinn Gray will start.
Vince Young - Young suffered a strained quad in week 6, but he is expected to return this week. He returned to practice on Wednesday.
Josh McCown - McCown suffered a torn toe ligament in week 3, and he is questionable to return this week. Duante Culpepper still doesn't have the confidence of the coaching staff as they appear ready to start McCown again once he heals.
Tavaris Jackson - Jackson suffered a broken finger in week 7, and he is out this week. Kelly Holcomb will start.
Byron Leftwich - Leftwich suffered a high ankle sprain in week 7, and he is out indefinitely. Joey Harrington still start.
David Carr - Carr suffered a back injury in week 5, but he is likely to return this week. He practiced on Wednesday and Thursday.
Alex Smith - Smith suffered a separated shoulder in week 4, but he will return this week. He practiced on Wednesday.
RB
Ronnie Brown - Brown suffered a torn ACL in week 7, and he is out for the season. Jesse Chatman will start.
Laurence Maroney - Maroney suffered a groin injury in week 2, he returned in a limited fashion in week 7, and will return to full duty in week 8.
Rudi Johnson - Johnson suffered a hamstring injury in week 3, and he is expected to miss this week. Kenny Watson will start.
Jamal Lewis - Lewis suffered a foot injury in week 5, and he is questionable to return this week. If he can't play, Jason Wright will start again, and Jerome Harrison will be mixed in as well.
Joseph Addai - Addai suffered a hand injury in week 7, but he returned later in the game. The big news is that given Addai's penchant to get nicked up, even though it's never cost him more than a handful of snaps, Tony Dungy has decided to use Kenton Keith more in games. This will not be a 50/50 split, but apparently Dungy is worried that Addai just can't carry the full load. Don't panic as Addai will still be plenty valuable, but he's not going to receive 25-30 touches any more in all likelihood.
Maurice Jones-Drew - MJD suffered a sprained knee in week 7, and he is questionable for this week. He continues to say that it's nothing to worry about and that he's fine, but he missed practice on Wednesday.
Chris Brown - Brown suffered an ankle injury in week 6, and he is questionable for this week. If he misses another game, it'll make LenDale White a great play. He could eventually be replaced by Chris Henry.
Travis Henry - Henry suffered a rib injury in week 7, and he is questionable for this week. He missed practice on Wednesday. Selvin Young would start in his place, but it sounds like Andre Hall will play a role as well.
DeShaun Foster - Foster suffered a turf toe injury in week 6, and he is questionable for this week. Even if he plays, he won't be worth using.
Frank Gore - Gore suffered a sprained ankle in week 7, but he is probable for this week. He missed practice on Wednesday, but he is expected to return later this week.
Steven Jackson - Jackson suffered a torn groin in week 3, but he will return this week. He practiced on Wednesday.
WR
Andre Johnson - Johnson suffered a sprained knee in week 2, and he is out this week. He's likely to return in week 11, and he'll be replaced by some combination of Kevin Walter and Andre Davis.
Marvin Harrison - Harrison suffered a sprained knee in week 5, but he is probable for this week. He missed practice on Wednesday, but he is likely to return to practice later this week.
Javon Walker - Walker suffered a knee injury in week 3, and he is out indefinitely. He underwent arthroscopic surgery to clean his knee out, and his current timetable is 6 weeks.
Plaxico Burress - Burress suffered a severely sprained ankle in week 2, but he is probable for this week. He has missed every practice since the injury, but he hasn't missed a game yet.
Santana Moss - Moss suffered a hamstring injury in week 3, and he hasn't looked right since. He is probable for this week, but it seems very risky to use him given the 0s (or worse) that he's posted since returning.
Darrell Jackson - Jackson suffered a strained quad in week 7, and he is questionable for this week. Given what little he's offered his owners, I imagine you have better alternatives anyways. He missed practice on Wednesday.
D.J. Hackett - Hackett suffered a high ankle sprain in week 1, and he is on bye this week, but he seems probable to return in week 9. If you have WR depth problems or someone you want to drop, go get Hackett now. He's likely to be a solid fantasy contributor once he returns.
TE
Ben Watson - Watson suffered an ankle injury in week 6, and he is out indefinitely. Kyle Brady will start and can be used in a pinch.
Todd Heap - Heap suffered a strained hamstring in week 4, and he is expected to return after the team's bye this week.
Tony Scheffler - Scheffler suffered a sprained ankle in week 7, but he is probable for this week. He practiced on Wednesday. With Javon Walker out, he's a strong candidate to turn in a solid 2nd half, and can be picked up as a TE2.
L.J. Smith - Smith underwent hernia surgery prior to the season, and he is questionable this week. He's worth keeping an eye on if you have TE problems.
Bubba Franks - Franks suffered a sprained knee in week 5, and he is out for this week. Donald Lee becomes a great option at TE with Franks out.
Alge Crumpler - Crumpler is suffering from a knee injury that he had surgery on prior to the season, but he is expected to return after the team's bye this week. He has questionable TE1 value upon his return.
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
NFL Week 7: Monday Night Game Wrapup
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Peyton Manning - 23/37, 259 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 2/0, 1 TD. Another solid fantasy game from Manning even against an elite pass D like JAX. He took what the defense gave him and also utilized a solid running game to move the ball and put points on the board.
Joseph Addai - 16/85, 4/22. A solid yardage game from Addai, but Dungy came out and stated that they want to get Kenton Keith more involved in the offense. Addai had to come out after hurting his hand on a 23 yard run, and that result in Kenton Keith picking up a TD. He had another nice 10 yard run down to the inside the 1, but he failed to reach the ball over the stripe, and then Manning plunged it in. Addai's fantasy value will drop, but he's still a very solid RB1.
Marvin Harrison - 3/16. Despite reports that he'd play a full set of plays, Harrison was limited in this outing and his production suffered. I expect improvement next week, especially against a ho-hum CAR secondary.
Reggie Wayne - 9/131. It's a shame he didnt' score, but he came up with big catch after big catch against a very tough opponent. His TDs are down currently, but expect him to pick up the scoring slack as the season moves along.
Dallas Clark - 4/66, 1 TD. Another game, another TD. He broke wide open late in the game off of a playaction and posted a 35 yard TD to ensure another solid fantasy performance.
David Garrard - 8/12, 72 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT. Garrard was playing alright, but he had to leave with an ankle injury and could be out a couple weeks. It's blow to his owners as he was playing like a borderline QB1.
Quinn Gray - 9/24, 56 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT, 2/8, 1 FL. Ugly. He's not a fantasy option, but 2 QB leaguers should pick him up.
Fred Taylor - 11/55, 1/-2. Not enough touches for him to be anything beyond a decent RB3. Given MJD's potential knee injury, Taylor could see a rise in fantasy value, however.
Maurice Jones-Drew - 13/52, 3/17, 1 TD. The TD made him turn in yet another solid RB2 performance, but his knee injury bears watching this week in practice as he limped off towards the end of the game.
Peyton Manning - 23/37, 259 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 2/0, 1 TD. Another solid fantasy game from Manning even against an elite pass D like JAX. He took what the defense gave him and also utilized a solid running game to move the ball and put points on the board.
Joseph Addai - 16/85, 4/22. A solid yardage game from Addai, but Dungy came out and stated that they want to get Kenton Keith more involved in the offense. Addai had to come out after hurting his hand on a 23 yard run, and that result in Kenton Keith picking up a TD. He had another nice 10 yard run down to the inside the 1, but he failed to reach the ball over the stripe, and then Manning plunged it in. Addai's fantasy value will drop, but he's still a very solid RB1.
Marvin Harrison - 3/16. Despite reports that he'd play a full set of plays, Harrison was limited in this outing and his production suffered. I expect improvement next week, especially against a ho-hum CAR secondary.
Reggie Wayne - 9/131. It's a shame he didnt' score, but he came up with big catch after big catch against a very tough opponent. His TDs are down currently, but expect him to pick up the scoring slack as the season moves along.
Dallas Clark - 4/66, 1 TD. Another game, another TD. He broke wide open late in the game off of a playaction and posted a 35 yard TD to ensure another solid fantasy performance.
David Garrard - 8/12, 72 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT. Garrard was playing alright, but he had to leave with an ankle injury and could be out a couple weeks. It's blow to his owners as he was playing like a borderline QB1.
Quinn Gray - 9/24, 56 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT, 2/8, 1 FL. Ugly. He's not a fantasy option, but 2 QB leaguers should pick him up.
Fred Taylor - 11/55, 1/-2. Not enough touches for him to be anything beyond a decent RB3. Given MJD's potential knee injury, Taylor could see a rise in fantasy value, however.
Maurice Jones-Drew - 13/52, 3/17, 1 TD. The TD made him turn in yet another solid RB2 performance, but his knee injury bears watching this week in practice as he limped off towards the end of the game.
NFL Week 7: Late Game Wrapup
New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals
Chad Pennington - 20/31, 272 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 3/7, 1 FL. Pennington put up a solid game against a very weak defense, but he was picked off and it was return for a TD to seal the game for Cincy. This is probably not enough to hold off the calls for Kellen Clemens, especially with the team sporting a 1-6 record.
Thomas Jones - 19/67. A very disappointing effort from Jones against such a weak defense, especially with the game close throughout. Keep him in the lineup versus Buffalo in week 8.
Laveraneous Coles - 8/133, 2 TD. A huge last game from the Pennington/Coles connection, if that is indeed the end to Chad's run as the starter. There was no denying that the two had solid chemistry, so hopefully Coles will keep that up if Clemens takes over. He had a great matchup with Buffalo in week 8.
Jerricho Cotchery - 6/60, 1 TD. A solid game from Cotchery, and he could start to receive more targets from Clemens. He too has a great matchup with Buffalo in week 8.
Carson Palmer - 14/21, 226 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. Owners were certainly left wanting more from Palmer in such a good matchup against the Jets, but Watson stole the scoring show, and Cincy was able to move the ball down the field very effectively on the ground. He faces a stern test against Pittsburgh in week 8.
Kenny Watson - 31/130, 3/27, 3 TD. Hello, Kenny Watson. The owners who used him with Rudi out were rewarded beyond their wildest dreams with a monster game. Given how well Watson has run, how poorly Rudi was running this year, and Rudi dealing with a lingering injury, there's a very good chance that Watson has carved himself a far more prominent role in the backfield.
Chad Johnson - 3/102. He had a couple long catches, but his targets were limited with Cincy choosing to run the ball down NYJ's throat. Owners are probably getting impatient with TJ stealing all the TD's, but Palmer obviously uses both to their strengths.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh - 4/43, 1 TD. TJ is 6/6 in games with TDs this year, making him insanely consistent. Like I mentioned above, Palmer obviously uses both to their strengths, and it's certainly making TJ a far more valuable fantasy WR this year.
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders
Damon Huard - 16/31, 177 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 2/-2. A very subpar outing from Huard, but like I mentioned before, the Raiders secondary is very solid. This won't hurt his chances for starting the rest of the year, especially since the Chiefs won again.
Larry Johnson - 24/112, 6/21, 1 TD. LJ took advantage of a great matchup and posted another very solid game. He has entered the easier part of his schedule, so as long as he holds up, he should continue taking advantage of matchups against weaker defenses. I'm still wary on his healthy over the course of this season, but he's proving good to go for now.
Dwayne Bowe - 3/84. He hauled in a big 58 yard pass which saved his fantasy day in a game where he caught only 3 passes. Count the lack of catches up to a solid opponent, and feel lucky that he broke a big one to turn in a solid fantasy day.
Tony Gonzalez - 4/66. Another solid day from Gonzo who continues to thrive with Huard behind center. He's a TE1 like usual.
Duante Culpepper - 18/29, 228 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 3/4. A decent game from Culpepper. I think expecting numbers like these in most weeks is very reasonable.
LaMont Jordan - 11/29, 4/40. Jordan struggled horribly again on the ground, but he avoided a disaster by catching passes later in the game. Given Rhodes logged 9 carries to Jordan's 11, it's time to start worrying that Jordan's back is limiting his effectiveness, and that it will lead to Rhodes getting more playing time. Rhodes hardly did anything (9/21) with his carries, though.
Ronald Curry - 4/45, 1 TD. Jerry Porter seems to make the big plays (1/59), but he's being targetted less frequently than Curry. Curry remains the guy to own and makes for a solid WR3.
Zach Miller - 4/48. Culpepper effectively used Jermaine Wiggins during his tenure with the Vikings, so Miller could emerge as a solid TE2 down the stretch.
Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys
Tavaris Jackson - 6/19, 72 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 4/20. Worst QB in football. He has solid physical skills and is arguably the fastest QB in the NFL, but he's so raw and it's really showing this year. Brad Childress is really doing a disservice to his team by not starting a veteran until Jackson is ready.
Adrian Peterson - 12/63, 1/12, 1 TD, 1 FL. Peterson scored on a 20 yard run, but didn't get enough carries in this one to make a huge difference. Because of the erratic amount of times he touches the ball, he's a lower tiered RB1.
Chester Taylor - 10/47, 3/19. Taylor should not be unowned in leagues, and he's especially helpful as a handcuff to Peterson owners.
Tony Romo - 31/39, 277 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 1/4, 1 FL. I expected a better output from Romo against a weak Vikings secondary, but he still put up a solid effort in what has been one of is weaker outputs of the season thus far.
Marion Barber - 19/96, 4/9, 1 TD. Barber received 19 carries to Jones' 9, and while I wouldn't get too excited yet, this could be a step in Barber becoming the team's feature RB. He battered the vaunted MIN run D in the 2nd half.
Terrell Owens - 7/103, 1 TD. Owens sliced through the MIN secondary and put up his best game out of the last 3. Not that his owners were worried, but it's nice to see him put up another solid effort.
Patrick Crayton - 2/19, 1 FL. When you are the teams' 2B option in the receiving game, there's going to be games like this.
Jason Witten - 10/86. A monster PPR game from the talented Witten. He continues to be the best TE bargain in fantasy drafts with excellent consistency.
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles
Brian Griese - 27/41, 322 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 1/0. He was having a rather modest day until leading the Bears on a 97 yard TD drive in under 2 minutes with 0 timeouts, culminating in a 15 yard TD pass to Muhammad. Griese is turning into a solid QB2.
Cedric Benson - 17/46, 1/19. Pathetic. He runs with no burst, no power, and seemingly no effort. It's time for the Bears to give Adrian Peterson more work.
Muhsin Muhammad - 5/79, 1 TD. He should be owned in all leagues. He's not the deep threat he once was, but he suits the short passing game that Griese does well, and he's the best fit for the new Chicago passing game. He's still a very solid redzone target. He gets a favorable matchup against the Lions next.
Bernard Berrian - 4/65. Still solid numbers, but without the deep playaction TD bombs he was catching with consistency last year, he's not posting any big games.
Greg Olsen - 4/48. He's been consistently posting decent yardage totals and is a solid TE2 with further upside in the 2nd half.
Donovan McNabb - 21/34, 226 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 2/18. McNabb is looking quicker on his feet as the season moves on, and while he hasn't had a big game since the explosion versus the Lions, he's slowly making progress. He makes for a solid buy-low candidate in the 2nd half.
Brian Westbrook - 18/79, 6/40. Westbrook against posted a very good yardage total, but didn't find the endzone again. He'll get more chances as McNabb continues to improve.
Kevin Curtis - 5/62. McNabb talked about getting Reggie Brown more involved, and while he has definitely succeeded in doing that after the bye, Curtis remains the preferred target. He's quick, runs good routes, and has good hands.
Reggie Brown - 3/44. He's slowly coming around, but he's nothing more than a WR4 for now.
St Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks
Marc Bulger - 21/40, 225 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT. What a horrible disaster in his return. I feel very bad that I recommended him in my gameday active area as he was clearly rusty on an offense that just isn't accomplishing anything. Steven Jackson likely returns next week, so that should help. They get Cleveland next, so if your other QB is on bye, it's a solid matchup to try him again with.
Brian Leonard - 12/44. Leonard hardly capitalized on a solid matchup. He's likely headed back to the bench next week.
Torry Holt - 8/82. His knee continues to limit his ability to make downfield plays, and since the offense is struggling so badly, he's not scoring TDs to make up for it.
Isaac Bruce - 2/52. The deep-in route king. He'll improve down the stretch as the Rams offense figures to do so as well.
Matt Hasselbeck - 18/35, 195 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT. Not a big yardage day, but he made up for it by tossing 2 TDs. He's still a low tier QB1. He's on bye this week, and he'll benefit from getting Deion Branch back after the bye.
Shaun Alexander - 19/47, 1/18. This has gotten ugly in a hurry, plus he got into an argument with his coach on the sideline. I'd stick a fork in him, but he'd probably yell at me too.
Bobby Engram - 6/73. Another solid outing from Engram, but with Branch scheduled to return after the bye week, he'll lose fantasy value and likely return to the slot. However, he'll probably remain Hasselbeck's secondary receiver.
Nate Burleson - 1/12. Thanks, Nate.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
Ben Roethlisberger - 24/35, 290 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT, 3/20, 1 FL. Big Ben took full advantage of the DEN secondary with Bailey out by posting his best fantasy effort of the season. With Ward and Holmes both back at the WR position, expect him to improve his yardage in the 2nd half.
Willie Parker - 21/93, 2/34. Another fine yardage game, but the lack of TDs has to be frustrating his owners. He's been solid all year, otherwise.
Hines Ward - 7/78. He looked healthy and is safe to resume starting. Cincy is a great matchup in week 8.
Santonio Holmes - 6/54, 1 TD. Same as Ward.
Heath Miller - 5/50, 2 TD. Miller came through with a big game for those who chose to use him, and he'll likely retain his lower tier TE1 value all year long. He's a great redzone target.
Jay Cutler - 22/29, 248 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT, 3/41. A very solid fantasy day for Cutler who tossed a career-high 3 TDs. Given the competition, this was a very nice step forward this year for the youngster who seemed to have slightly regressed since last year. Expect continued modest improvement.
Travis Henry - 17/51. He was bottled up by a great PIT run D, and he also left a bit early with bruised ribs. He's really slowed down after a fast start. Check his practice status this week.
Brandon Marshall - 6/77. Another solid effort from Marshall who will be the go-to receiver for the Broncos with Javon Walker out at least 6 weeks. Expect better numbers against weaker defenses, but GB in week 8 isn't a weaker defense. He's still a WR3 with WR2 upside.
Brandon Stokley - 6/70, 1 TD. Perhaps he can be of WR3 assistance with Walker out? Pick him up to find out if he's available and you need WR depth.
Tony Scheffler - 5/50, 1 TD. He's a forgotten man after a strong finish to last season once Cutler took over. He was suffering from a foot injury to start the year, but with Walker down, Scheffler could emerge as a 2nd half sleeper if they get him more involved in the passing game. He certainly has the receiving skills.
Chad Pennington - 20/31, 272 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 3/7, 1 FL. Pennington put up a solid game against a very weak defense, but he was picked off and it was return for a TD to seal the game for Cincy. This is probably not enough to hold off the calls for Kellen Clemens, especially with the team sporting a 1-6 record.
Thomas Jones - 19/67. A very disappointing effort from Jones against such a weak defense, especially with the game close throughout. Keep him in the lineup versus Buffalo in week 8.
Laveraneous Coles - 8/133, 2 TD. A huge last game from the Pennington/Coles connection, if that is indeed the end to Chad's run as the starter. There was no denying that the two had solid chemistry, so hopefully Coles will keep that up if Clemens takes over. He had a great matchup with Buffalo in week 8.
Jerricho Cotchery - 6/60, 1 TD. A solid game from Cotchery, and he could start to receive more targets from Clemens. He too has a great matchup with Buffalo in week 8.
Carson Palmer - 14/21, 226 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. Owners were certainly left wanting more from Palmer in such a good matchup against the Jets, but Watson stole the scoring show, and Cincy was able to move the ball down the field very effectively on the ground. He faces a stern test against Pittsburgh in week 8.
Kenny Watson - 31/130, 3/27, 3 TD. Hello, Kenny Watson. The owners who used him with Rudi out were rewarded beyond their wildest dreams with a monster game. Given how well Watson has run, how poorly Rudi was running this year, and Rudi dealing with a lingering injury, there's a very good chance that Watson has carved himself a far more prominent role in the backfield.
Chad Johnson - 3/102. He had a couple long catches, but his targets were limited with Cincy choosing to run the ball down NYJ's throat. Owners are probably getting impatient with TJ stealing all the TD's, but Palmer obviously uses both to their strengths.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh - 4/43, 1 TD. TJ is 6/6 in games with TDs this year, making him insanely consistent. Like I mentioned above, Palmer obviously uses both to their strengths, and it's certainly making TJ a far more valuable fantasy WR this year.
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders
Damon Huard - 16/31, 177 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 2/-2. A very subpar outing from Huard, but like I mentioned before, the Raiders secondary is very solid. This won't hurt his chances for starting the rest of the year, especially since the Chiefs won again.
Larry Johnson - 24/112, 6/21, 1 TD. LJ took advantage of a great matchup and posted another very solid game. He has entered the easier part of his schedule, so as long as he holds up, he should continue taking advantage of matchups against weaker defenses. I'm still wary on his healthy over the course of this season, but he's proving good to go for now.
Dwayne Bowe - 3/84. He hauled in a big 58 yard pass which saved his fantasy day in a game where he caught only 3 passes. Count the lack of catches up to a solid opponent, and feel lucky that he broke a big one to turn in a solid fantasy day.
Tony Gonzalez - 4/66. Another solid day from Gonzo who continues to thrive with Huard behind center. He's a TE1 like usual.
Duante Culpepper - 18/29, 228 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 3/4. A decent game from Culpepper. I think expecting numbers like these in most weeks is very reasonable.
LaMont Jordan - 11/29, 4/40. Jordan struggled horribly again on the ground, but he avoided a disaster by catching passes later in the game. Given Rhodes logged 9 carries to Jordan's 11, it's time to start worrying that Jordan's back is limiting his effectiveness, and that it will lead to Rhodes getting more playing time. Rhodes hardly did anything (9/21) with his carries, though.
Ronald Curry - 4/45, 1 TD. Jerry Porter seems to make the big plays (1/59), but he's being targetted less frequently than Curry. Curry remains the guy to own and makes for a solid WR3.
Zach Miller - 4/48. Culpepper effectively used Jermaine Wiggins during his tenure with the Vikings, so Miller could emerge as a solid TE2 down the stretch.
Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys
Tavaris Jackson - 6/19, 72 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 4/20. Worst QB in football. He has solid physical skills and is arguably the fastest QB in the NFL, but he's so raw and it's really showing this year. Brad Childress is really doing a disservice to his team by not starting a veteran until Jackson is ready.
Adrian Peterson - 12/63, 1/12, 1 TD, 1 FL. Peterson scored on a 20 yard run, but didn't get enough carries in this one to make a huge difference. Because of the erratic amount of times he touches the ball, he's a lower tiered RB1.
Chester Taylor - 10/47, 3/19. Taylor should not be unowned in leagues, and he's especially helpful as a handcuff to Peterson owners.
Tony Romo - 31/39, 277 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 1/4, 1 FL. I expected a better output from Romo against a weak Vikings secondary, but he still put up a solid effort in what has been one of is weaker outputs of the season thus far.
Marion Barber - 19/96, 4/9, 1 TD. Barber received 19 carries to Jones' 9, and while I wouldn't get too excited yet, this could be a step in Barber becoming the team's feature RB. He battered the vaunted MIN run D in the 2nd half.
Terrell Owens - 7/103, 1 TD. Owens sliced through the MIN secondary and put up his best game out of the last 3. Not that his owners were worried, but it's nice to see him put up another solid effort.
Patrick Crayton - 2/19, 1 FL. When you are the teams' 2B option in the receiving game, there's going to be games like this.
Jason Witten - 10/86. A monster PPR game from the talented Witten. He continues to be the best TE bargain in fantasy drafts with excellent consistency.
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles
Brian Griese - 27/41, 322 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 1/0. He was having a rather modest day until leading the Bears on a 97 yard TD drive in under 2 minutes with 0 timeouts, culminating in a 15 yard TD pass to Muhammad. Griese is turning into a solid QB2.
Cedric Benson - 17/46, 1/19. Pathetic. He runs with no burst, no power, and seemingly no effort. It's time for the Bears to give Adrian Peterson more work.
Muhsin Muhammad - 5/79, 1 TD. He should be owned in all leagues. He's not the deep threat he once was, but he suits the short passing game that Griese does well, and he's the best fit for the new Chicago passing game. He's still a very solid redzone target. He gets a favorable matchup against the Lions next.
Bernard Berrian - 4/65. Still solid numbers, but without the deep playaction TD bombs he was catching with consistency last year, he's not posting any big games.
Greg Olsen - 4/48. He's been consistently posting decent yardage totals and is a solid TE2 with further upside in the 2nd half.
Donovan McNabb - 21/34, 226 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 2/18. McNabb is looking quicker on his feet as the season moves on, and while he hasn't had a big game since the explosion versus the Lions, he's slowly making progress. He makes for a solid buy-low candidate in the 2nd half.
Brian Westbrook - 18/79, 6/40. Westbrook against posted a very good yardage total, but didn't find the endzone again. He'll get more chances as McNabb continues to improve.
Kevin Curtis - 5/62. McNabb talked about getting Reggie Brown more involved, and while he has definitely succeeded in doing that after the bye, Curtis remains the preferred target. He's quick, runs good routes, and has good hands.
Reggie Brown - 3/44. He's slowly coming around, but he's nothing more than a WR4 for now.
St Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks
Marc Bulger - 21/40, 225 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT. What a horrible disaster in his return. I feel very bad that I recommended him in my gameday active area as he was clearly rusty on an offense that just isn't accomplishing anything. Steven Jackson likely returns next week, so that should help. They get Cleveland next, so if your other QB is on bye, it's a solid matchup to try him again with.
Brian Leonard - 12/44. Leonard hardly capitalized on a solid matchup. He's likely headed back to the bench next week.
Torry Holt - 8/82. His knee continues to limit his ability to make downfield plays, and since the offense is struggling so badly, he's not scoring TDs to make up for it.
Isaac Bruce - 2/52. The deep-in route king. He'll improve down the stretch as the Rams offense figures to do so as well.
Matt Hasselbeck - 18/35, 195 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT. Not a big yardage day, but he made up for it by tossing 2 TDs. He's still a low tier QB1. He's on bye this week, and he'll benefit from getting Deion Branch back after the bye.
Shaun Alexander - 19/47, 1/18. This has gotten ugly in a hurry, plus he got into an argument with his coach on the sideline. I'd stick a fork in him, but he'd probably yell at me too.
Bobby Engram - 6/73. Another solid outing from Engram, but with Branch scheduled to return after the bye week, he'll lose fantasy value and likely return to the slot. However, he'll probably remain Hasselbeck's secondary receiver.
Nate Burleson - 1/12. Thanks, Nate.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
Ben Roethlisberger - 24/35, 290 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT, 3/20, 1 FL. Big Ben took full advantage of the DEN secondary with Bailey out by posting his best fantasy effort of the season. With Ward and Holmes both back at the WR position, expect him to improve his yardage in the 2nd half.
Willie Parker - 21/93, 2/34. Another fine yardage game, but the lack of TDs has to be frustrating his owners. He's been solid all year, otherwise.
Hines Ward - 7/78. He looked healthy and is safe to resume starting. Cincy is a great matchup in week 8.
Santonio Holmes - 6/54, 1 TD. Same as Ward.
Heath Miller - 5/50, 2 TD. Miller came through with a big game for those who chose to use him, and he'll likely retain his lower tier TE1 value all year long. He's a great redzone target.
Jay Cutler - 22/29, 248 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT, 3/41. A very solid fantasy day for Cutler who tossed a career-high 3 TDs. Given the competition, this was a very nice step forward this year for the youngster who seemed to have slightly regressed since last year. Expect continued modest improvement.
Travis Henry - 17/51. He was bottled up by a great PIT run D, and he also left a bit early with bruised ribs. He's really slowed down after a fast start. Check his practice status this week.
Brandon Marshall - 6/77. Another solid effort from Marshall who will be the go-to receiver for the Broncos with Javon Walker out at least 6 weeks. Expect better numbers against weaker defenses, but GB in week 8 isn't a weaker defense. He's still a WR3 with WR2 upside.
Brandon Stokley - 6/70, 1 TD. Perhaps he can be of WR3 assistance with Walker out? Pick him up to find out if he's available and you need WR depth.
Tony Scheffler - 5/50, 1 TD. He's a forgotten man after a strong finish to last season once Cutler took over. He was suffering from a foot injury to start the year, but with Walker down, Scheffler could emerge as a 2nd half sleeper if they get him more involved in the passing game. He certainly has the receiving skills.
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