WR5 Draft Guide Update

I have made some slight updates to the WR5 section.  I have removed Devin Thomas.  He's still running with the third stringers, and he's supposedly having a hard time separating in practice.  He's definitely a name to keep in mind, but he's yet again having an unimpressive training camp.  I have also removed Arrelious Benn.  Tampa Bay is not going to produce 2 starting fantasy WRs, and Mike Williams has looked far more impressive.  Williams is a definite starter as to where Benn is still battling for a starting job.

Finally, Johnny Knox's ADP is shooting up draft boards for good reason.  He's a very talented WR who, by all accounts, is having an outstanding offseason.  He's acclimated very well to Mike Martz's offense, and his skill set is a perfect fit.  Like I mentioned in his section, I would have no problem drafting him in the 8th or 9th round as a 3rd WR.  I definitely want him on my teams this season.

Brett Favre Says He Will Not Return

Breaking news has Brett Favre informing Vikings' team officials that he will not return this season, citing his ankle as a continued problem.  Given this is Brett Favre and how he loves to change his mind to keep himself in the media, I'm sure this isn't the last of the story.  For the sake of fantasy football, however, all Vikings outside of Adrian Peterson need to be immediately downgraded until this situation is figured out.  Sidney Rice was already overrated because of his continued hip problems, but this will affect Harvin, Berrian, and Shiancoe quite a bit as well should Favre not play.  Rice is somewhere between a WR2/3 now, Harvin is a risky WR3, and Berrian is nothing more than a late flier.  I was already avoiding Shiancoe as anything other than a TE2, and I wouldn't bother drafting him at all now.  Adrian Peterson will resume being the sole focal point of the offense, so I would still take him in the top two picks.

Draft Guide Updates

I made updates to both Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe as I've read nothing but great news about Bowe's dedication this offseason.  That's big news considering that has been his biggest enemy in his career.  I made updates to both Antonio Bryant and Terrell Owens in light of Owens' signing in Cincinnati.  Finally, I made updates to both Knowshon Moreno and Dez Bryant as they suffered noteworthy injuries in practice over the weekend.

I completed my draft guide last week, but I will make updates as necessary as news and injuries occur.  Enjoy!

2010 TE2 Value Analysis

I'm going to highlight a few guys you should keep an eye on with a flier TE2 pick rather than list everyone:

Greg Olsen - It's good to see fantasy nation being smart this year.  Mike Martz kills the fantasy value of TEs because he simply values them far more as a blocker than a receiver.  Olsen is solely a backup, but his talent is worth a late round flier to see if he can buck the trend.

Dustin Keller - He's a very good young pass catcher at the TE spot, but with the run-first offense combined with the acquisition of Santonio Holmes, there simply won't be enough targets for him to consistently be a fantasy producer.  Still, like Olsen, his talent is good enough for a stash.

John Carlson - I'm a big fan of Carlson this year, but I think he's better as a backup to mitigate the risk.  He's a very talented pass catcher, but he was mostly used as a blocker last year.  With a lower price tag this season, I think Carlson could turn into a TE1 as Carroll will definitely use him more as a receiver after signing Chris Baker to handle blocking duties.  He's an ideal TE2.

Heath Miller - He's being buried in drafts this year, but he had a very solid 2009 season.  He'll probably start slow until Ben Roethlisberger returns, but he could be valuable depth after that.  He's a good stash.

Ben Watson - Watson continuously disappointed in New England despite excellent talent, drawing ire from scouts saying that he's simply not a very good football player.  However, he's landed on a team that has very little in terms of receiving talent, and someone will have to catch the ball.  He's worth an end-of-draft flier to see if the light turns on for him thanks to a lack of better receiving options.

Tony Scheffler - Scheffler got buried last season by Josh McDaniels whose offense simply does not use the TE much.  Detroit traded for him, and while Brandon Pettigrew remains a threat for snaps, I don't think they acquired him to sit on the bench.  He's projects more as a slot receiver in Detroit's improved offense, and he could re-emerge as a fantasy threat like he did in Denver during Cutler's final season there.  He's another solid TE2 stash.

2010 TE1 Value Analysis

1) Antonio Gates

ADP: 46.4 (4th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Gates returned to fantasy prominence last year after his 2008 season was ruined by nagging injuries.  Gates proved that when he's healthy, he is still among the elite at his position.  As I've detailed with both Phillip Rivers and Vincent Jackson, there's a potentially serious problem for this offense.  Vincent Jackson is suspended for 3 games, and there isn't much WR depth on this team after him.  Gates will be targeted plenty while VJax is out, but he'll also be the defense's sole focus for the Chargers' passing game.  Plus, 3 games is the minimum amount of games that Jackson will miss as several outlets fear that his holdout is for real.  I think Gates has some serious risks this season, and there's no point in taking him as the first TE in a draft so deep at the position.

2) Dallas Clark

ADP: 48.8 (5th round, 1st pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Dallas Clark is an excellent fantasy TE when he's healthy, and he's been healthy for the past 3 seasons, which has seen him make sizeable receiving yardage increases in each of those 3 seasons.  He topped out at an incredible 1,106 yards last season, but beware.  He posted 60 catches for 703 yards in the 1st half while the Colts struggled to find consistency outside of Wayne and Clark last season, but once Garcon and Collie emerged, Clark's production fell to 40 catches for 403 yards in the 2nd half.  I think his 2nd half production is closer to what we should expect in 2010 thanks to the fact the Colts have more weapons, and we know Manning will not lock onto targets over the course of a season.  Clark will remain a red-zone threat and post good yardage, but as the 2nd TE picked, I'd pass at this price as his ADP is based off of last year's misleading production.

3) Vernon Davis
ADP: 55.1 (5th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Vernon Davis finally matched his immense talent with production last season, and he was easily the fantasy MVP at the TE position with his low ADP.  He won't catch anyone by surprise this season, but thankfully for him, Frank Gore and Michael Crabtree will give defenses plenty to think about. Vernon Davis will probably lose a few TDs this season, the balanced offense will allow him to avoid too much extra defensive attention.  I think last season is a solid baseline for his production, but with a couple less TDs.

4) Jermichael Finley

ADP: 59.8 (5th round, 12th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: There aren't too many TEs picked in the top 5 coming off of a 676 yard, 5 TD season, but there's plenty of reason to be excited about Finley this season.  He accomplished this while battling an annoying knee injury for most of the season, he's going to start at TE after not doing so for part of last season, he posted a monster 6/159 line in his only playoff game, and he's playing for an explosive passing offense.  There's been positive feedback this offseason about Finley staying dedicated to improving, so that's comforting after problems with that in the past.  He's also the team's best red zone weapon with his tremendous size and leaping ability from the TE position.  He has monster upside, and he's a great 5th round pick.

5) Jason Witten
ADP: 62.4 (6th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Witten struggled a bit in the 2nd half of 2008 and the first half of 2009, but he really took off during the 2nd half of last season, posting 639 yards.  The disappointing part of his season came in the TD department where he crashed to 2 TDs.  While he should improve on that total in 2009, unfortunately the addition of Dez Bryant gives the Dallas offense another mouth to feed, and Witten has never been a huge part of the red zone offense.  I think you can expect Witten's yardage to decrease some with Bryant's arrival, and I don't expect a big bounce back in TDs either, so I think Witten will be slightly disappointing this season.

6) Tony Gonzalez

ADP: 68.0 (6th round, 8th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Gonzalez posted reliable stats last season during his first year in Atlanta, but his yardage total shrunk to it's worst total since 2002.  Atlanta will return its offense intact, and they do figure to pass more in 2010 as Matt Ryan continues to mature and take on more responsibility.  With Gonzalez starting to age, I think he'll remain reliable, but he'll probably post similar stats this season, so you're paying for consistency.  There are more exciting options later in the draft that come at a cheaper cost.

7) Brent Celek

ADP: 70.1 (6th round, 10th pick)

Value: Slightly Undervalued

Overview: Celek created some buzz during the 2008 playoffs, but few too many people too notice, and he was one of my favorite TE sleepers last season.  Celek completely delivered last season, posting almost 1,000 yards with 8 TDs.  McNabb is now gone, but Celek and Kolb are very close friends, and Celek posted 2/3 100 yard games when Kolb started last season.  I think he'll again post similar numbers, and I'd much rather take him than Witten and Gonzalez at the relatively same price tag.

8) Owen Daniels
ADP: 88.6 (8th round, 4th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: What a shame.  Owen Daniels was the #1 TE in fantasy football prior to a torn ACL that knocked him out for the season in week 8.  Houston returns essentially the same offense, so Daniels should remain an integral part of their attack by working the middle of the field and occasionally going deep.  Keep a close eye on him in the preseason.  His health is the only thing standing in his way of providing top 5 value at a slight discount, but the uncertainty of his recovery obviously plays a role.  Keep a close eye on how he looks this preseason, but I think a slow start will prevent him from being a bargain.  Honestly, I'd rather pass.

9) Visanthe Shiancoe
ADP: 100.5 (9th round, 4th pick)
Value: Overvalued

Overview: This one is simple.  Shiancoe's value is strictly tied to his TDs, and TDs can be flaky from year to year.  I don't doubt that Shiancoe will remain a valuable red zone threat for Favre and the Vikings this year, but I'd far prefer to draft someone who is posting more reliable yardage totals, and thus more reliable fantasy numbers.

10) Zach Miller

ADP: 108.5 (9th round, 12th pick)

Value: Slightly Undervalued

Overview: Miller is my favorite TE value this season.  This guy has nearly posted back-to-back 800 yard seasons with an absolute mess at QB, but the Raiders have dumped Jamarcus Russell and traded for Jason Campbell.  Campbell is hardly an elite QB talent, but he's a good leader, a solid passer, and he likes throwing to his TEs.  The Raiders offense will improve this year, and their WRs are not going to dominate targets.  I think Miller's baseline is Chris Cooley during his better years, which is in the mid-800s for yardage, and probably 5-6 TDs, and he has a bit of upside on that as well given he almost got there with terrible QB play.  Go get him.

11) Kellen Winslow
ADP: 110.5 (10th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued

Overview: Winslow continues to battle knee problems, but he's been, to use his words, a soldier while playing 16 games in 3 of the last 4 season.  Tampa has finally found a solid young QB in Josh Freeman, and their additions of Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams has injected exciting talent into their passing attack.  Winslow has a good chance of leading his team in receptions again as their veteran go-to receiver, and while his knees always make him a risky choice, he's a good value at this price.

12) Chris Cooley

ADP: 111.4 (10th round, 3rd pick)

Value: Undervalued

Overview: Cooley was on pace to post his usual reliable stats last season, but unfortunately a torn ACL wrecked his season as well.  The good news is that the Redskins upgraded at head coach with Mike Shanahan and at QB with Donovan McNabb.  Shanahan has always utilized his TEs quite often in his offense (Shannon Sharpe, Tony Scheffler), and McNabb has always consistently thrown to his TEs.  The bad news is that Fred Davis made an impact on the passing game with Cooley out last season, so he'll have some competition for snaps.  Ultimately I find it hard to believe that Cooley will have his starting job taken from him, and Shanahan also used a lot of 2 TE sets.  He's a bit of a risk coming off of a torn ACL and having a bit of competition for his job, so you should back him up with another TE, but he does have upside.  Keep a close eye on him during the preseason.

Update: Cooley is becoming McNabb's go-to target for this team, and with Moss keeping defenses honest down the field, Cooley will have plenty of room to work underneath.  Fred Davis might scare some people, but Cooley has re-emerged as the unquestioned starting TE.  He's a great value.

TE1 Thoughts: There is a lot of depth this year, and I will have no problem waiting until the first 2 waves of TEs are gone before taking two, probably in the 9th round or later.  I would feel more comfortable doubling up on TEs in rounds 9 and 10 (or later) than using a 4th-6th round pick to land one of the early ones.  I feel there's too much value at the position this year, and I'd rather use my earlier picks on more important positions.

2010 WR5 Value Analysis

I'm going to highlight a few guys you should keep an eye on with a flier WR5 pick rather than list everyone:

Mike Williams - Williams is a talented rookie WR with Tampa Bay, and he's been making noise at Tampa's camp all offseason.  He is locked into a starting job at split end, and he's going to be a play-maker.  His deep speed matches well with Freeman's big arm, but it will probably take a year for Williams to develop a well-rounded game.  He should be targeted often to help make up for that, however.

Laurent Robinson - A rookie QB is never great news for fantasy WRs, but someone has to step up in STL.  Laurent Robinson looked really good last year prior to a torn knee ligament, and he fits the profile of a true #1 WR with his size/speed combination.  He's a solid stash as a WR5.

Devin Hester / Johnny Knox - Thanks to last season's strong finish, Aromashodu is getting picked well ahead of these two.  You know Martz will turn this passing game into a good one, and there's going to be at least one, if not two, fantasy contributors from this passing attack.  Since this situation is up in the air, it might make more sense to pass on Aromashodu's higher price tag and take one of these guys instead.  Knox has been making a ton of noise in camp, and I'd probably take him first.  His ADP is rising, and I would honestly have no problem drafting him as high as a WR3 at this point.

Bernard Berrian - Favre is back, Rice is out half of the season, and Harvin's headaches are unpredictable.  The Vikings need to throw to someone, and Berrian is still a very good deep threat.  He's a great WR5.

Jabar Gaffney - Gaffney blew up the final two weeks of the season, especially in week 17 when Brandon Marshall was suspended, and he heads into the 2010 season as the starting Broncos WR opposite whatever role Eddie Royal plays.  He's not a big name by any means, but he's a McDaniels type of player, and he'll produce while he's starting.  He's a good candidate stash, and might actually provide better value than Eddie Royal.

James Jones - He's worth a stash in case Donald Driver isn't the same after his dual offseason knee surgeries. He's bee more productive than Jordy Nelson when on the field, and he'd likely start opposite Jennings should Driver fall apart.  He's especially attractive if you draft Driver.

Jacoby Jones - Kubiak wants Jones to win the starting job opposite Andre Johnson, and he certainly has the talent to do it, but like several other WRs I've talked about here, he's gotta be right mentally.  I think he's an excellent stash if he wins the job given the explosive nature of Houston's passing attack.  He's a perfect WR5.

WR5 Thoughts: There's a lot of good talent here, and while it's risky, if you wanted to stock up on other positions and then grab your WR depth here, I don't think you'd be doing yourself a disservice.  I really like Mike Williams and Jabar Gaffney as guys this late, but there's a lot of other interesting prospects as well.

2010 WR4 Value Analysis

37) Antonio Bryant

ADP: 99.1 (9th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Undraftable

Overview: Everything has changed since I originally wrote this.  The Bengals signed Terrell Owens to replace Bryant on the outside, so the best Bryant can hope for early in the season is being the slot receiver.  The reason for this replacement was Bryant's inability to get past his knee problems as he's consistently struggled with them this offseason.  Bryant is not draftable.

38) Santonio Holmes

ADP: 100.5 (9th round, 4th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: By comparison, I'd rather draft Holmes as a WR4 than Edwards as a WR3.  Given what Holmes has shown on the field the last several seasons, there's no doubt in my mind that he will be starting in week 5 after his suspension is handed down, and he'll have a shot at WR2, but at least WR3 value.  The worst case scenario is Edwards blows up and keeps the starting job, and then Holmes plays second fiddle on a run-first offense when he returns, but I just cannot see that happening with the way Edwards has played over the past two seasons.  I trust in Holmes talent and think he'll be the leading Jets WR from the point he returns to the end of the season.

39) Malcom Floyd
ADP: 104.2 (9th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Floyd never once met expectations last year.  He was expected to be a threat opposite Vincent Jackson, but instead he didn't post a big week until week 17 when it likely didn't matter anymore.  This season Floyd has to step up in VJax's absence.  I think he'll be pretty valuable while VJax is out based on targets, but after that it's anyone's guess.  The thing is that VJax looks likely to not play for a while, if at all for the Chargers again.  For a WR4, he's a good pick.  There's talent in that big body of his, but he needs to show it more than he did last season.

40) Derrick Mason

ADP: 104.7 (9th round, 8th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Mason, like Driver above, has been an ageless wonder the past couple seasons, exceeding his draft slot while continuing to produce as Baltimore's go-to WR.  Mason contemplated retirement, but ultimately signed on to play for one more season.  Unfortunately for him, the Ravens traded for Anquan Boldin, so Mason will be shifted into as secondary role as mostly a possession receiver.  His upside is obviously limited now, and with the addition of Donte Stallworth as well, his snaps could be scaled back a bit.  Furthermore, Mason is at risk for falling off the proverbial cliff production-wise, so it's best to stay away this season.

41) Lee Evans
ADP: 106.2 (9th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Undervalued

Overview: Poor Lee Evans.  This guy is a top 10 WR in terms of pure talent, but Buffalo has refused to either get a consistent QB or consistent help at the WR position opposite him.  It's a shame that most of his career has been ruined by the franchise he plays for, although you have to wonder why he decided to re-sign when it was clear they didn't have much going for them.  Unfortunately for Evans, Buffalo has once again neglected those positions, instead opting to return mostly the same offense yet again.  Buffalo acquired Brian Brohm who was once considered to be a possible first round talent, but Green Bay thought so little of him that they let him walk instead of being Rodgers' backup.  Brohm is in a 3-way battle with Edwards and Fitzpatrick to be the starting QB, but we've already seen what little Evans can do with those two under center.  James Hardy has been a huge bust, but only Steve Johnson and Chad Jackson stand in the way of him starting again.    All that aside, I think Lee Evans hit rock bottom last year, and I think he can most certainly climb into the top 36 WRs again this season.  I will happily draft him as a WR4 this year.

42) Kenny Britt

ADP: 107.5 (9th round, 11th pick)

Value: Overvalued

Overview: Britt was mostly non-existent in the first half, but he posted a solid 405 yards and 3 TDs in the 2nd half.  He is unquestionably the most talented Titans WR, and he should take over the go-to WR role for the offense and be a value pick.  However, he showed up to summer camp completely out of shape, so it's clear that his work ethic is a big question.  So, this is a classic case of talent versus work ethic, but at a WR4 price, he's a solid player to speculate on.  Hopefully the fact he isn't being given a starting job will be the motivation he needs to get himself right by the start of the season.  Keep an eye on him in preseason and see if he earns that starting role because he could provide very good value if he wins it.

Update: Britt has had a disastrous offseason, and he will not start.  He's nothing more than a WR5 flier, if that.  Just don't forget him.

43) Demaryius Thomas

ADP: 114.6 (10th round, 6th pick)

Value: Undraftable

Overview: Thomas is a great WR talent from Georgia Tech who has good size, good speed, and can be an all-around WR at the NFL level.  The problem is that he's recovering from foot surgery, and he's still not doing much on it yet.  WR is one of the hardest positions to make an immediate fantasy impact from, so any lost time is a red flag on his fantasy value, and it's not known yet when he'll fully return to practice.  The other problem is the likely rotation that McDaniels will use at the WR position this year as well.  I'd shy away from drafting Thomas this year, but if someone drafts and drops him, keep an eye on him as a possible producer in the 2nd half.

Update: Thomas has suffered another setback with his foot, and he will not be ready to start the season.  Remember the name, but do not draft him.

44) Jerricho Cotchery
ADP: 118.0 (10th round, 10th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Cotchery started off in excellent fashion, but then an injury de-railed his season, and Rex Ryan reeled in Sanchez's passing attempts in favor of a run-heavy offense.  I've always liked Cotchery as a player, but unfortunately he'll be fighting for a starting job now with the addition of Santonio Holmes.  Like I mentioned in the profiles for Edwards and Holmes, this situation could play out in a number of ways, and it all starts with how Edwards plays the first 4 weeks.  I do know that Cotchery will start in weeks 1-4.  If Edwards flashes his old form, Cotchery will probably shift to the slot and come off the field more in favor of Holmes.  If Edwards falls flat again, it's possible that Cotchery will retain his starting job, and Edwards will move to a situational role.  At any rate, Cotchery has the least upside of the 3 not only in talent, but also in situation as well as I don't believe he controls his own destiny.  He's a solid WR5, but drafting him as your WR4 and counting on him for a contribution during bye weeks is too risky for my taste.

45) Eddie Royal
ADP: 119.5 (10th round, 11th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Royal was a huge bust last season.  Before the season started, there was a lot of talk about how he would take the Wes Welker role in the offense and lead the team in catches.  Instead, McDaniels put him outside and made him consistently run deep routes.  This year, supposedly, Royal is actually going to be moved into the slot, but it's anyone's guess as to whether that will happen or not.  The fact is that outside of Demaryius Thomas, who isn't fully healthy and is inexperienced, Royal is easily the most talented WR on this roster among Jabar Gaffney, Brandon Stokley, and another rookie Eric Decker, who's recovering from his own foot surgery.  Keep a close eye on how he's used in preseason before making him your WR4, but he hasn't lost the talent he flashed in 2008.  It all comes down to how he's used, and he could provide a nice return on investment.

46) Austin Collie

ADP: 125.4 (11th round, 5th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Austin Collie, like teammate Pierre Garcon, provided a big lift to the Colts offense when Anthony Gonzalez went down for the season.  He consistently made tough catches over the middle and provided solid play-making skills. Collie has good hands, and while he lacks game-breaking speed, he's quick and can get open.  Unfortunately for Collie, since he's not as talented as Garcon or a healthy Anthony Gonzalez, he has the most to lose if Gonzalez is indeed 100% again.  If Gonzalez doesn't make it back from whatever knee injuries ruined his 2009 season, Collie would be worth a WR4 pick.  If Gonzalez is healthy, Collie will likely lose his job and not provide any fantasy value.  He's a player to monitor in training camp and preseason action.

47) Terrell Owens
ADP: 125.9 (11th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Owens, like the rest of the Buffalo offense, was mostly non-existent last season.  Owens is obviously done as a top-tier WR, but I think he can still help out the right team as a secondary WR, and I also think he could still provide WR3 value if he gets a starting job on a reasonable offense.  Fortunately, both of those things happened.  The Bengals signed Terrell Owens, and he'll start opposite Chad Ochocinco, so he'll be facing single coverage.  Just like with Ochocinco, if Palmer regains some arm strength and accuracy, then I think Owens can be helpful in the right matchups.  However, if his new team and name recognition pushes him into WR3 territory, tread carefully.

48) Kevin Walter

ADP: 128.9 (11th round, 9th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Walter was a bust in 2009.  Owen Daniels usurped his over-the-middle catches while turning Walter into an after-thought for the Houston offense last season.  When Daniels went down, I expected Walter to resume his 2008 role, but he never reclaimed that magic he had in 2008.  With Gary Kubiak hoping that promising youngster Jacoby Jones can take the secondary WR role and Daniels coming back from his torn ACL, Walter's chances are decreasing by the minute.  I'd much rather take a chance with Jones later in the draft than grab Walter.

WR4 Thoughts: We dropping deeper into the WR pool and we're starting to see less and less upside in this group.  Lee Evans will be the #1 WR on his team, but his surrounding offense is absolutely awful.  Kenny Britt can be the #1 WR on his team, but he's going to have to earn the job by working hard, which is something he obviously did not do once the season is over.  Royal could lead his team in catches, but he's threatened with WR committee in Denver.  Holmes could lead his team in receiving yardage while he's on the field, but he's suspended for 4 games.  Bryant, Floyd, and possibly Owens, if he signs, will play clear 2nd fiddle on their teams, but could provide solid production.  I lean towards the guys who will have a clearly defined role for when I need them during bye weeks and injuries.  All of the guys I have mentioned in this paragraph apply, with Britt and Evans having the highest upside of the bunch.

2010 WR3 Value Analysis

25) Donald Driver

ADP: 68.6 (6th round, 8th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: I have under-estimated Driver the last 1-2 seasons, but as I've stated before, WRs get to a certain age, and I shy away so I don't get stuck with someone who falls off a cliff production-wise.  Driver was again fantastic last season for the first three months, but then limped to the finish in December, only posting 11 catches for 151 yards in the 4 games.  Furthermore, Driver had two knee surgeries this offseason, and at age 35, he's a major risk without the upside anymore.  I'd much rather speculate on James Jones later in the draft than rely on Driver to be my WR2/3.

Update: Driver has looked fully healthy in the preseason, so he's safe to draft as a WR3.  His health risk and Finley stealing some of his targets will keep his upside limited, however.

26) Santana Moss

ADP: 71.1 (6th round, 11th pick)

Value: Undervalued

Overview: Moss has certainly developed into an enigma during his career.  He flashed insane talent during 2005 with 1400+ yards ad 8 TDs, but he's only gone over 1,000 yards once in 4 years since then.  Moss has had some annoying injury problems during his career that has slowed him some, but his problems have mostly been because of his surrounding offensive situation.  Enter Mike Shanahan and Donovan McNabb.  Washington's offense should markedly improve with both of them in town, and McNabb's cannon arm certainly matches well with Moss' speed.  Combine that with Washington's aging RB situation and the fact they'll veer towards the pass, and you have the recipe for some value.  I would gladly take Moss as my WR2, and he's a steal as a WR3.  I would be willing to reach as far as the late 5th to grab him.  Just keep an eye if anything comes of his PED situation from this summer to ensure he isn't suspended.

27) Vincent Jackson
ADP: 71.4 (6th round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued

Overview: Make no question about it: Vincent Jackson is a top 10 talent.  If he didn't have a suspension and a possible holdout looming over his head, he'd be selected among the top 10 WRs in fantasy.  The problem is that he's going to serve a 3 game suspension to start the season, and he's also in the midst of a holdout as he's vastly underpaid as one of the NFL's top young WRs.  Besides Dwayne Bowe, VJax presents the ultimate boom/bust value.  The best case scenario is that he serves his 3 game suspension, signs his contract, and plays 13 games, probably providing WR1 value during that time.  The worse case scenario is that he serves his 3 game suspension, and then he holds out an extra 7 games.  The 10 game mark is key because if he misses more than that, then he loses a year towards free agency, and he'd have to deal with this mess again next season rather than become a free agent.  His value becomes a battle between the resolve of VJax and G.M. A.J. Smith, and Smith has not been known to back down.  Honestly I think Smith should pony up some up-front money to keep him happy as teams are hampered in their ability to sign players to long-term deals at the moment with the CBA looming.  Drafting VJax makes sense if you can get him as a WR4, but drafting him as someone you expect week 1 contributions from is too dangerous.  It's completely unknown if or how long he'll hold out past his 3 game suspension.

Update: This situation is a mess.  There was at least one trade offer on the table, but the Chargers felt they didn't receive enough in return.  Saturday morning marked Jackson getting another 3 games tacked on, so while with the Chargers, he will miss at least 6 games, and I doubt he plays at that point.  His best bet is a trade, and hopefully the NFLPA will step in and rule that the additional 3 games the Chargers gave him won't be transferred to a new team.  It would obviously help his trade value.

28) Mike Wallace

ADP: 73.0 (7th round, 1st pick)

Value: Slightly Undervalued

Overview: Wallace burst onto the scene as a rookie, and he was so good that Pittsburgh cut the cord on Santonio Holmes after his latest run-in with the law.  There's no way they would have dumped Holmes unless they were positive that Wallace could step up and provide similar production.  Wallace is an outstanding deep threat and is developing into a fine all-around WR.  The only reservation I have about him is while Big Ben is serving his suspension.  Pittsburgh's offensive line is weak, and while Roethlisberger's athleticism allows him to still make plays down the field, stand-in starter Byron Leftwich is the EXACT opposite of an athletic QB.  If Leftwich isn't getting time, Wallace won't get the ball down the field.  This is very similar to the situation that Jennings ran into during the first half of last season.  I expect Wallace to be an impact fantasy WR with WR2 value when Big Ben returns, but be careful during the first month.  I wouldn't take him as my WR2 as I think you'll handicap yourself during that first month.

29) Robert Meachem
ADP: 75.3 (7th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Meachem has always been an intriguing talent since he was drafted, but he didn't put together production until last season.  He was kinda quiet in the first half outside of one big game, but he put together a nice 2nd half with 426 yards and 6 TDs.  He needs to become more consistent from game-to-game, but in an offense as good as New Orleans, and with the Saints looking for that steady WR opposite Marques Colston, Meachem has upside.  He's a risk thanks to that lack of consistency so far, but his situation and talent make him an appealing WR3 if he can put it all together.  He's best paired with a solid WR4 in case he busts.

Update: Henderson has been running ahead of Meachem thanks to his battle with a toe injury, so I wouldn't go drafting Meachem as a WR3 considering it seems likely he'll get off to a slow start.  I like his prospects over the course of the season and would still draft him as a WR4.

30) Braylon Edwards

ADP: 79.5 (7th round, 7th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Speaking of enigmas, is there a bigger one than Braylon Edwards?  After turning in a monster season in 2007, Edwards has tossed up back-to-back miserable efforts.  His talent certainly isn't the problem as he is a big, fast WR who can get open without a problem.  It's not injuries as he hasn't suffered one since his big season.  It's simply a lack of dedication to his craft.  He continues to drop inexcusable passes and simply does not try hard all the time.  He looked rejuvenated for about a week in NY after getting out of Cleveland, but he reverted to his unimpressive self afterwards, tossing in 2 good games from that first NY game forward. The good news is that he has the biggest motivation of his career, and that might be what he needs to get jump started.  The bad news is that he'll be worthless to fantasy leaguers if he doesn't start producing.  The starting job is his for 4 weeks while newly acquired Santonio Holmes is on suspension, so he'll have a month to prove that he belongs out there.  Once Holmes returns, with Cotchery still in the fold, Edwards will need to impress during that month to earn a starting job.  There's no question that Holmes has been the far better receiver in the past couple seasons, but I think the Jets would love for Edwards to step up to be an outside receiver opposite Holmes while Cotchery works in the slot.  If he plays well, he could be very valuable for the first month, but then targets becomes a big issue on a run-first offense once Holmes returns.  If he doesn't play well, then you've wasted a draft pick.  I don't think the possible benefit outweighs the risk.

31) T.J. Houshmandzadeh

ADP: 81.0 (7th round, 9th pick)

Value: Undraftable

Overview: Housh severely disappointed his owners last season with a very mediocre performance.  Seattle's offense was simply not very good in any aspect, and it doesn't look like there will be marked improvement this year either.  Housh doesn't make big plays anymore and is solely a possession receiver at this point in his career.  I would much rather take a chance with Golden Tate much later in the draft than take a minimal upside receiver as my 3rd WR.

Update: Seattle released Housh, and he signed with the Ravens.  He'll be nothing more than a slot receiver, and it would take an injury to Boldin or Mason to make him worth considering.

32) Steve Breaston
ADP: 83.4 (7th round, 11th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Those drafting Breaston last season should have known better as he was merely the third option in an offense with a QB set to regress, but he most certainly disappointed those who drafted him.  He missed the first game of the season, started off reasonably well in September/October, but then he wasn't startable over the rest of the season.  Anquan Boldin has been traded, so Breaston has a chance to have a full-time starting gig this season.  The problem is that with the retirement of Kurt Warner, there will be less opportunities, and Breaston is also battling Early Doucet for that starting job.  I think he's a solid speculator pick as a WR4, but unless he wins the starting job, he has no chance of living up to this ADP.  I'll pass.

33) Devin Aromashodu
ADP: 84.8 (8th round, 1st pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Aromashodu came out of nowhere late last season to emerge as the Bears go-to receiver for the final two weeks of the season, so naturally he's a popular sleeper now that Mike Martz is running the Bears offense.  He's certainly the tallest of the group, but the Bears' WR depth chart is a mess right now between Aromashodu, Knox, and Hester, so it's hard to figure out who will be favored.  At least one of these guys is going to be a good value, but it's anyone's guess as to who that is.  As it stands right now, Aromashodu is in the slot while Hester and Knox are split out wide.  Normally this would be a bad thing, but in Martz's offense, guys like Az-Hakim and Mike Furrey have become fantasy options playing that position.  There's much left to be determined here, but Cutler clearly likes the kid, and that can't hurt as long as he's on the field consistently. There's some downside if he ends up not being the go-to target, but that is mostly balanced out by his upside of becoming that go-to target.  Watch training camp and preseason closely.

34) Dez Bryant

ADP: 86.7 (8th round, 2nd pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Dez Bryant's draft-day slide reminds me a bit of Randy Moss'.  Both were clearly the best WR in their draft, but character concerns, whether it's warranted in Bryant's case or not, hurt their draft stock.  Bryant didn't land in the most ideal situation as he's going to be second fiddle to Miles Austin, but the extra defensive attention paid to Austin should benefit him some, too, as he adjusts to the NFL game.  Additionally, he joined a very good QB who's going to have no problem getting him the ball.  Exactly how many targets he'll get with Austin and Witten remains to be seen, but he's going to get open and he's going to make plays.  The complicating matter here is that Bryant suffered a high sprained ankle in practice this weekend.  This will set Bryant's growth back a bit, but I still like his prospects for this season.  Once he's healthy, he will beat out Roy Williams.  He may start a bit slow, but if the injury makes his ADP slide a bit, jump.

35) Wes Welker
ADP: 93.5 (8th round, 9th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Wes Welker's value is impossible to determine right now.  There's 3 things that can happen.  Firstly, he could end up on PUP and miss the first 6 weeks, which would make it impossible for him to live up to this draft slot.  Secondly, he could start the season, but start slow as he recovers, and end up with value very near to his ADP.  Thirdly, he could start the season, fully healthy, and outperform his ADP as a healthy Welker is a top 20 WR.  The reports have been overwhelming positive before, but it's rare when you see a negative report about a big name player recovering from a serious injury, so it's hard to put a lot of stock into it until we see him actually play.  We'll have to see how he looks in preseason and figure out if he'll be on PUP or not, but as it stands at this very moment, I would not spend a pick on him as a WR3.

Update: Welker has looked good, but has cautioned that he does not feel 100% yet.  I think he makes for a fine WR4, but don't expect the old Welker right out of the gate.  I've seen him be drafted as high as a WR2.  Don't do that.

36) Julian Edelman

ADP: 98.7 (9th round, 2nd pick)

Value: Overvalued

Overview: There's absolutely no reason to be drafting Edelmen as a WR3.  He doesn't play outside, so his value is directly tied to Welker.  The best case scenario is that Welker goes on PUP and misses 6 weeks, giving Edelman value for that time period.  If you're set on drafting Welker I could see grabbing Edelman to be safe, but that's about it.

WR3 Thoughts: There's some interesting talent here.  Santana Moss, Vincent Jackson, and Braylon Edwards could all provide WR1 value if everything broke right, but there's a lot of downside to them as well, which is why they're mostly being drafted as WR3s.  Wallace, Meachem, Aromashodu, and Bryant are all young WRs that should have a solid opportunity to produce for your fantasy teams this year, and I like them as WR3s as well.  These are the guys I'd focus on as I don't see the upside of the other guys at all to be worth taking them here.