2010 WR3 Value Analysis

25) Donald Driver

ADP: 68.6 (6th round, 8th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: I have under-estimated Driver the last 1-2 seasons, but as I've stated before, WRs get to a certain age, and I shy away so I don't get stuck with someone who falls off a cliff production-wise.  Driver was again fantastic last season for the first three months, but then limped to the finish in December, only posting 11 catches for 151 yards in the 4 games.  Furthermore, Driver had two knee surgeries this offseason, and at age 35, he's a major risk without the upside anymore.  I'd much rather speculate on James Jones later in the draft than rely on Driver to be my WR2/3.

Update: Driver has looked fully healthy in the preseason, so he's safe to draft as a WR3.  His health risk and Finley stealing some of his targets will keep his upside limited, however.

26) Santana Moss

ADP: 71.1 (6th round, 11th pick)

Value: Undervalued

Overview: Moss has certainly developed into an enigma during his career.  He flashed insane talent during 2005 with 1400+ yards ad 8 TDs, but he's only gone over 1,000 yards once in 4 years since then.  Moss has had some annoying injury problems during his career that has slowed him some, but his problems have mostly been because of his surrounding offensive situation.  Enter Mike Shanahan and Donovan McNabb.  Washington's offense should markedly improve with both of them in town, and McNabb's cannon arm certainly matches well with Moss' speed.  Combine that with Washington's aging RB situation and the fact they'll veer towards the pass, and you have the recipe for some value.  I would gladly take Moss as my WR2, and he's a steal as a WR3.  I would be willing to reach as far as the late 5th to grab him.  Just keep an eye if anything comes of his PED situation from this summer to ensure he isn't suspended.

27) Vincent Jackson
ADP: 71.4 (6th round, 11th pick)
Value: Overvalued

Overview: Make no question about it: Vincent Jackson is a top 10 talent.  If he didn't have a suspension and a possible holdout looming over his head, he'd be selected among the top 10 WRs in fantasy.  The problem is that he's going to serve a 3 game suspension to start the season, and he's also in the midst of a holdout as he's vastly underpaid as one of the NFL's top young WRs.  Besides Dwayne Bowe, VJax presents the ultimate boom/bust value.  The best case scenario is that he serves his 3 game suspension, signs his contract, and plays 13 games, probably providing WR1 value during that time.  The worse case scenario is that he serves his 3 game suspension, and then he holds out an extra 7 games.  The 10 game mark is key because if he misses more than that, then he loses a year towards free agency, and he'd have to deal with this mess again next season rather than become a free agent.  His value becomes a battle between the resolve of VJax and G.M. A.J. Smith, and Smith has not been known to back down.  Honestly I think Smith should pony up some up-front money to keep him happy as teams are hampered in their ability to sign players to long-term deals at the moment with the CBA looming.  Drafting VJax makes sense if you can get him as a WR4, but drafting him as someone you expect week 1 contributions from is too dangerous.  It's completely unknown if or how long he'll hold out past his 3 game suspension.

Update: This situation is a mess.  There was at least one trade offer on the table, but the Chargers felt they didn't receive enough in return.  Saturday morning marked Jackson getting another 3 games tacked on, so while with the Chargers, he will miss at least 6 games, and I doubt he plays at that point.  His best bet is a trade, and hopefully the NFLPA will step in and rule that the additional 3 games the Chargers gave him won't be transferred to a new team.  It would obviously help his trade value.

28) Mike Wallace

ADP: 73.0 (7th round, 1st pick)

Value: Slightly Undervalued

Overview: Wallace burst onto the scene as a rookie, and he was so good that Pittsburgh cut the cord on Santonio Holmes after his latest run-in with the law.  There's no way they would have dumped Holmes unless they were positive that Wallace could step up and provide similar production.  Wallace is an outstanding deep threat and is developing into a fine all-around WR.  The only reservation I have about him is while Big Ben is serving his suspension.  Pittsburgh's offensive line is weak, and while Roethlisberger's athleticism allows him to still make plays down the field, stand-in starter Byron Leftwich is the EXACT opposite of an athletic QB.  If Leftwich isn't getting time, Wallace won't get the ball down the field.  This is very similar to the situation that Jennings ran into during the first half of last season.  I expect Wallace to be an impact fantasy WR with WR2 value when Big Ben returns, but be careful during the first month.  I wouldn't take him as my WR2 as I think you'll handicap yourself during that first month.

29) Robert Meachem
ADP: 75.3 (7th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Meachem has always been an intriguing talent since he was drafted, but he didn't put together production until last season.  He was kinda quiet in the first half outside of one big game, but he put together a nice 2nd half with 426 yards and 6 TDs.  He needs to become more consistent from game-to-game, but in an offense as good as New Orleans, and with the Saints looking for that steady WR opposite Marques Colston, Meachem has upside.  He's a risk thanks to that lack of consistency so far, but his situation and talent make him an appealing WR3 if he can put it all together.  He's best paired with a solid WR4 in case he busts.

Update: Henderson has been running ahead of Meachem thanks to his battle with a toe injury, so I wouldn't go drafting Meachem as a WR3 considering it seems likely he'll get off to a slow start.  I like his prospects over the course of the season and would still draft him as a WR4.

30) Braylon Edwards

ADP: 79.5 (7th round, 7th pick)

Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Speaking of enigmas, is there a bigger one than Braylon Edwards?  After turning in a monster season in 2007, Edwards has tossed up back-to-back miserable efforts.  His talent certainly isn't the problem as he is a big, fast WR who can get open without a problem.  It's not injuries as he hasn't suffered one since his big season.  It's simply a lack of dedication to his craft.  He continues to drop inexcusable passes and simply does not try hard all the time.  He looked rejuvenated for about a week in NY after getting out of Cleveland, but he reverted to his unimpressive self afterwards, tossing in 2 good games from that first NY game forward. The good news is that he has the biggest motivation of his career, and that might be what he needs to get jump started.  The bad news is that he'll be worthless to fantasy leaguers if he doesn't start producing.  The starting job is his for 4 weeks while newly acquired Santonio Holmes is on suspension, so he'll have a month to prove that he belongs out there.  Once Holmes returns, with Cotchery still in the fold, Edwards will need to impress during that month to earn a starting job.  There's no question that Holmes has been the far better receiver in the past couple seasons, but I think the Jets would love for Edwards to step up to be an outside receiver opposite Holmes while Cotchery works in the slot.  If he plays well, he could be very valuable for the first month, but then targets becomes a big issue on a run-first offense once Holmes returns.  If he doesn't play well, then you've wasted a draft pick.  I don't think the possible benefit outweighs the risk.

31) T.J. Houshmandzadeh

ADP: 81.0 (7th round, 9th pick)

Value: Undraftable

Overview: Housh severely disappointed his owners last season with a very mediocre performance.  Seattle's offense was simply not very good in any aspect, and it doesn't look like there will be marked improvement this year either.  Housh doesn't make big plays anymore and is solely a possession receiver at this point in his career.  I would much rather take a chance with Golden Tate much later in the draft than take a minimal upside receiver as my 3rd WR.

Update: Seattle released Housh, and he signed with the Ravens.  He'll be nothing more than a slot receiver, and it would take an injury to Boldin or Mason to make him worth considering.

32) Steve Breaston
ADP: 83.4 (7th round, 11th pick)
Value: Slightly Overvalued

Overview: Those drafting Breaston last season should have known better as he was merely the third option in an offense with a QB set to regress, but he most certainly disappointed those who drafted him.  He missed the first game of the season, started off reasonably well in September/October, but then he wasn't startable over the rest of the season.  Anquan Boldin has been traded, so Breaston has a chance to have a full-time starting gig this season.  The problem is that with the retirement of Kurt Warner, there will be less opportunities, and Breaston is also battling Early Doucet for that starting job.  I think he's a solid speculator pick as a WR4, but unless he wins the starting job, he has no chance of living up to this ADP.  I'll pass.

33) Devin Aromashodu
ADP: 84.8 (8th round, 1st pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Aromashodu came out of nowhere late last season to emerge as the Bears go-to receiver for the final two weeks of the season, so naturally he's a popular sleeper now that Mike Martz is running the Bears offense.  He's certainly the tallest of the group, but the Bears' WR depth chart is a mess right now between Aromashodu, Knox, and Hester, so it's hard to figure out who will be favored.  At least one of these guys is going to be a good value, but it's anyone's guess as to who that is.  As it stands right now, Aromashodu is in the slot while Hester and Knox are split out wide.  Normally this would be a bad thing, but in Martz's offense, guys like Az-Hakim and Mike Furrey have become fantasy options playing that position.  There's much left to be determined here, but Cutler clearly likes the kid, and that can't hurt as long as he's on the field consistently. There's some downside if he ends up not being the go-to target, but that is mostly balanced out by his upside of becoming that go-to target.  Watch training camp and preseason closely.

34) Dez Bryant

ADP: 86.7 (8th round, 2nd pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Dez Bryant's draft-day slide reminds me a bit of Randy Moss'.  Both were clearly the best WR in their draft, but character concerns, whether it's warranted in Bryant's case or not, hurt their draft stock.  Bryant didn't land in the most ideal situation as he's going to be second fiddle to Miles Austin, but the extra defensive attention paid to Austin should benefit him some, too, as he adjusts to the NFL game.  Additionally, he joined a very good QB who's going to have no problem getting him the ball.  Exactly how many targets he'll get with Austin and Witten remains to be seen, but he's going to get open and he's going to make plays.  The complicating matter here is that Bryant suffered a high sprained ankle in practice this weekend.  This will set Bryant's growth back a bit, but I still like his prospects for this season.  Once he's healthy, he will beat out Roy Williams.  He may start a bit slow, but if the injury makes his ADP slide a bit, jump.

35) Wes Welker
ADP: 93.5 (8th round, 9th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Wes Welker's value is impossible to determine right now.  There's 3 things that can happen.  Firstly, he could end up on PUP and miss the first 6 weeks, which would make it impossible for him to live up to this draft slot.  Secondly, he could start the season, but start slow as he recovers, and end up with value very near to his ADP.  Thirdly, he could start the season, fully healthy, and outperform his ADP as a healthy Welker is a top 20 WR.  The reports have been overwhelming positive before, but it's rare when you see a negative report about a big name player recovering from a serious injury, so it's hard to put a lot of stock into it until we see him actually play.  We'll have to see how he looks in preseason and figure out if he'll be on PUP or not, but as it stands at this very moment, I would not spend a pick on him as a WR3.

Update: Welker has looked good, but has cautioned that he does not feel 100% yet.  I think he makes for a fine WR4, but don't expect the old Welker right out of the gate.  I've seen him be drafted as high as a WR2.  Don't do that.

36) Julian Edelman

ADP: 98.7 (9th round, 2nd pick)

Value: Overvalued

Overview: There's absolutely no reason to be drafting Edelmen as a WR3.  He doesn't play outside, so his value is directly tied to Welker.  The best case scenario is that Welker goes on PUP and misses 6 weeks, giving Edelman value for that time period.  If you're set on drafting Welker I could see grabbing Edelman to be safe, but that's about it.

WR3 Thoughts: There's some interesting talent here.  Santana Moss, Vincent Jackson, and Braylon Edwards could all provide WR1 value if everything broke right, but there's a lot of downside to them as well, which is why they're mostly being drafted as WR3s.  Wallace, Meachem, Aromashodu, and Bryant are all young WRs that should have a solid opportunity to produce for your fantasy teams this year, and I like them as WR3s as well.  These are the guys I'd focus on as I don't see the upside of the other guys at all to be worth taking them here.