Friday, March 6, 2009

Free Agency Period Analysis

Now that some of the smoke has settled, let's take a look at the fantasy impact the free agency period has produced:

QB:

Matt Cassel - Cassel was traded from the Patriots to the Chiefs. His value obviously gets a boost as he'll be the starter for KC in 2009, as to where he was reliant on Tom Brady's injury to continue starting in NE. I'm not entirely sold on his talent as there's such a small sample to look at, but he does have receiving talent in KC with Dwayne Bowe, Tony Gonzalez, and to a lesser extent, Mark Bradley. Jamaal Charles is also an excellent 3rd down RB. It remains to be seen who will be running the ball for them. I think he has a chance to be a good QB2, and possibly a borderline QB1 in 2009.

Sage Rosenfels - Rosenfels was traded from the Texans to the Vikings. Much like Cassel, his value goes up as well as he'll most likely be the Vikings starter in 2009 instead of backing up injury-prone Matt Schaub in Houston. He's mistake-prone, and he's moving from a pass-first offense in Houston with lots of weapons to a run-first offense in Minnesota with medicore weapons outside of deep threat Bernard Berrian, although fellow starter Sydney Rice does indeed have talent. He'll be nothing more than a QB2 in 2009.

Kurt Warner - Warner re-signed with the Cardinals, which was the most ideal situation for his 200 fantasy value. It remains to be seen what the Cardinals will do with Anquan Boldin, but Warner should maintain QB1 value in 2009.

Kerry Collins - Collins re-signed with the Titans, and he'll resume being in the bottom 3rd of possible fantasy QBs in 2009.

Jay Cutler - Rumors had Cutler almost going to either the Bucs or Lions via a 3 way trade that would have brought Matt Cassel to Denver, but neither trade materialized. This has caused a big disconnect between Cutler and new coach Josh McDaniels. While I personally feel McDaniels is an idiot for trying to deal for a lesser QB, his history and relationship with Cassel obviously played a big role in trying to trade for him. Don't expect anything to come of this rift: Cutler will start for Denver in week 1.

Brett Favre - Favre retired, finally, leaving the Jets with almost zero experience at the QB position. A battle between Kellen Clemens and Brett Ratliff appears to be the most likely scenario, but perhaps something could happen in the draft.

RB:

Marshawn Lynch - Lynch was arrested for a gun-related charge, and he likely faces at least a 1 game suspension from the league, with rumors stating it might be longer than that. Stay tuned to this story as it develops.

Fred Taylor - Taylor signed with the Patriots, and will battle Maroney for early down carries in 2009. He'll likely be nothing more than a RB4 with moderate upside.

Cedric Benson - Benson re-signed with the Bengals, and he'll likely have the upper hand for their starting RB position. However, look for the Bengals to add talent at the position in the draft.

Correll Buckhalter/LaMont Jordan/J.J. Arrington - Denver clearly solved their logjam at the RB position by signing 3 guys that are medicore talents. Shannahan may have left, but McDaniels certainly isn't improving the RB situation in Denver whatsoever.

LaDainian Tomlinson - LT's situation could get interesting. As it stands right now, LT is slated to make more than recently franchised Darren Sproles, but the Chargers want him to take a paycut. LT is balking, and for obvious reasons because if he returns, he'll undoubtedly be the bigger part of the RB committee. It remains to be seen how this stalemate will be resolved.

Marion Barber/Felix Jones - Jerry Jones came out this week and stated that he wants to return Barber to his previous "closer" role. It certainly dims Barber's 2009 upside, and gives a boon to Felix Jones' value. However, Jerry is smart because this is what's best for the Cowboys offense. With T.O. gone, their 2 best talents outside of Tony Romo play the RB position.

Derrick Ward - Ward signed with the Buccaneers, and he's the favorite to start for the Bucs in week 1. His all-around talent is good as he possess 3 down capability as both a good runner and pass catcher, and Earnest Graham will be coming off of major knee surgery. I can't see him getting 300 carries given his lengthy injury history, but Ward could be a decent RB2 option in 2009.

WR/TE:

Laveranues Coles - Coles signed with the Bengals, and he'll start opposite Chad Johnson in 2009. Coles tends to get banged up, but he's a very tough football player who is similarly reliable to the departed Houshmandzedeh. He cost less than Housh, but provides a similar skill set.

Marvin Harrison - The Colts cut Harrison, and this could mark the end of his excellent career. He'll be replaced in the lineup by Anthony Gonzalez, who's set to see his fantasy value grow quite a bit. Gonzalez should be very nice WR3 in 2009.

Brandon Marshall - Marshall got himself arrested yet again, and while the charges were dropped, it remains likely that the NFL will suspend him yet again. Pay very close attention to this situation as rumors have his suspension ranging from 1-8 games. Given he already received a 1 game suspension last year, I have to think he's in line for a mutiple game suspension this time around.

Terrell Owens - Owens was released by the Cowboys, and as of this moment, 15 teams have publically denied that they're interested in signing him. It's slightly possible that he could become the Barry Bonds of the NFL where all teams refuse to sign him, but I imagine a team that is desparate at WR (TEN?) will eventually give him a home.

Antonio Bryant - Bryant was franchised by the Buccaneers, which was a smart move considering his checkered off-the-field history. He'll be motivated to play well again this year, and the addition of Winslow will keep defenses from keying solely on him.

Kellen Winslow - Winslow was traded from the Browns to the Buccaneers. It remains to be seen what this does to his fantasy value as the Bucs current starting QB is Luke McCown. Unless they add talent at the QB position somehow, it's hard to see McCown doing much to increase Winslow's value over what he saw last year with Anderson/Quinn/Dorsey.

Anquan Boldin - Boldin is still under contract, but he's also still demanding a trade. 2009 NFL Draft Day, or shortly before it, will likely provide the answer to whether he'll be dealt or not.

T.J. Houshmandzedeh - Housh signed with the Seahawks. He'll immediately become their #1 WR, and if Hasselbeck can return to health, Housh should be a solid WR2 in 2009. Hasselbeck is the key to his 2009 value.

Torry Holt - Holt hasn't been released quite yet by the Rams, but it appears to be inevitable at this point. Expect him to sign elsewhere relatively quickly. His stats have taken a nose-dive, but one must consider the awful surrounding offense he's played in the past two seasons. He still runs routes with the best of them.

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