Thursday, March 5, 2009

RB3 Value Analysis Recap

25) Thomas Jones
ADP: 51.9 (5th round, 4th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 5th

Recap: Jones anchored the running game of a resurgent Jets team that almost made the playoffs. With Favre stabilizing the passing game, somewhat, Jones made a 14 TD improvement in 2008 as he miraculously returned to RB1 status.

26) LenDale White
ADP: 54.2 (5th round, 6th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 19th

Recap: This ranking is also very mis-leading. Now White scored in more games than he didn't, but with Chris Johnson amazingly dominating the touches in most games, White got very little action. He only had two games of 20+ carries. He actually wasn't a bad RB2, all things considered, which did provide good value here.

27) Rudi Johnson
ADP: 56.2 (5th round, 8th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 73rd

Recap: Johnson was cut by the Bengals, played in some games with the Lions, and was mostly worthless.

28) Fred Taylor
ADP: 57.1 (5th round, 9th pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 56th

Recap: Taylor was simply not the same player in 2008. Some of it had to do with the injuries that decimated the offensive line, but while Taylor ran with authority, he showed his age and only scored once. He wasn't a fantasy option at all this year.

29) Jonathan Stewart
ADP: 61.8 (6th round, 2nd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 24th

Recap: Stewart never captured the starting role like I thought he would thanks to the amazing season by DeAngelo Williams. Stewart did, however, show plenty of promise when given the carries. He was a RB2 in the right matchups during 2008.

30) Matt Forte
ADP: 64.1 (6th round, 4th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 3rd

Recap: Forte was insanely consistent all season long thanks to a bunch of touches in both the running game and passing game. Chicago's commitment to the run benefited him all season long, and they were creative to get him involved in the passing game as well. Forte was certainly one of 2008's pleasant surprises.

31) Selvin Young
ADP: 66.7 (6th round, 7th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: Buried in the fantasy graveyard.

Recap: I'm an idiot. Young was never relied upon to do much, and even then, he still got hurt. This will probably be the last year you even think of him.

32) Kevin Smith
ADP: 75.2 (7th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 18th

Recap: This ranking is a bit misleading as well. Smith didn't take the starting job until week 10, so he wasn't worth starting until then, but he was excellent down the stretch as a RB2 when you needed him most. He showed a lot of promise for the future on such a bad team.

33) Rashard Mendenhall
ADP: 80.4 (7th round, 8th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: Buried in the fantasy graveyard.

Recap: Mendenhall suffered a broken shoulder bone, which ended his season in week 4, a week after Parker went down. Much like McFadden...

34) DeAngelo Williams
ADP: 82.3 (7th round, 10th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 1st

Recap: I was dead on here. I said I didn't want him as a RB3, which was correct, as I wanted him as my RB1. Uh, yeah. Well, I did end up drafting him as a RB4 in one league, and I don't think I could have loved him any more. He honestly had an odd year. He showed promise in week 1, appeared close to losing his job after 3 straight weeks of mediocre play, exploded in week 5, turned in 2 more weeks of blah, and then absolutely exploded with 993 yards and 15 TDs in the last 8 games! That has to rank up there with among the most amazing 8 week performances in fantasy football history.

35) Deuce McAllister
ADP: 87.4 (8th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: Buried in the fantasy graveyard.

Recap: McAllister did almost nothing in 2008 and lost his job to Pierre Thomas.

36) Chester Taylor
ADP: 87.7 (8th round, 4th pick)
Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 36th

Recap: I made a mistake with my value call here. I meant undervalued to Peterson owners, specifically, as obviously I wasn't going to suggest grabbing him as anything more than a RB3. Regardless, he had zero stand-alone value as Peterson never went down, and Taylor never got more than 11 carries in a game.

RB3 Summary:

Hits: Jones, White, Johnson, F. Taylor, Stewart, Forte, Smith, McAllister
Misses: Young, Mendenhall, Williams
, C. Taylor

Another 8/4 split. Young and Williams were dreadful calls, which is really disappointing given Williams ended #1. Mendenhall was injured, and Chester Taylor should have been specified better per his situation.

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