Friday, March 6, 2009

WR3 Value Analysis Recap

25) Joey Galloway
ADP: 73.0 (7th round, 1st pick)
Value: Over Valued


2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.

Recap: Galloway's age finally caught up to him last year, and he bombed.

26) Chris Chambers
ADP: 74.4 (7th round, 2nd pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 53rd

Recap: Chambers got off to a great start, but then an injury derailed his momentum and he either missed games or played hurt the majority of the season.

27) Roddy White
ADP: 75.0 (7th round, 3rd pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued


2008 Finish: 6th

Recap: Matt Ryan turned in one of the best rookie QB seasons of all time, thanks in part to Michael Turner, and Roddy White was the big beneficiary of that. White was a WR1 all season long.

28) Vincent Jackson
ADP: 78.3 (7th round, 6th pick)

Value: Appropriately to Over Valued

2008 Finish: 11th

Recap: I recommended Jackson as a WR3, but erroneously preferred Chambers to him. Jackson stepped up and proved that he was the top dog in the Chargers offense, and with LT hurting all year, there were more receptions to go around.

29) Laveraneous Coles
ADP: 78.3 (7th round, 6th pick)
Value: Appropriately Valued


2008 Finish: 24th

Recap: Coles played through more injuries in 2008, and just as expected, he posted borderline WR2 numbers.

30) Kevin Curtis
ADP: 79.2 (7th round, 7th pick)
Value: Over Valued


2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard

Recap: Curtis' hernia surgery killed his season. I forgot to update his value in my draft guide, but I did post stating not to draft him anymore.

31) Jerricho Cotchery
ADP: 82.9 (7th round, 11th pick)
Value: Under Valued


2008 Finish: 30th

Recap: Cotchery was not worth reaching for. Favre's jeckyl/hyde passing game hurt Cotchery's consistency as his targets were all over the board on a weekly basis.

32) Anthony Gonzalez
ADP: 87.8 (8th round, 4th pick)

Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 43rd

Recap: Gonzalez simply did not get enough targets to put up WR3 numbers in 2008.

33) Reggie Brown
ADP: 90.5 (8th round, 6th pick)

Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard

Recap: We have learned that Reggie Brown is not a very good football player. End of story.

34) Santana Moss
ADP: 92.3 (8th round, 8th pick)

Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 17th

Recap: Moss turned in a healthy season, missing only one game, but faded down the stretch as the Redskins offense went south. With Portis running the show in the first half, Moss was a stud WR1, but he faded badly in the 2nd half. Still, he provided a nice return on investment as a WR3.

35) Javon Walker
ADP: 92.9 (8th round, 9th pick)

Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: Fantasy football graveyard.

Recap: Walker's knees just aren't allowing him to do much anymore, which is a shame. He busted again in 2008.

36) Patrick Crayton
ADP: 95.3 (8th round, 11th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 49th

Recap: Crayton regressed in 2008, and was barely worth using in fantasy leagues.

WR3 Summary:

Hits: Galloway, White, Coles, Curtis, Gonzalez
, Moss, Walker
Misses: Chambers, Jackson, Cotchery, Brown, Crayton


7/12, so a little better. I did recommend Jackson, although ultimately I still had him partially marked as over-valued.

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