WR1 Value Analysis Recap

1) Randy Moss

ADP: 7.9 (1st round, 8th pick)

Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 10th

Recap: Moss actually turned in a valiant effort in 2008. Owners undoubtedly panicked after Brady's injury in week 1, but once Cassel settled in, Moss turned back into the WR1 that he was expected to be. However, he certainly didn't turn in the season expected after being taken as the first WR off the board.

2) Reggie Wayne

ADP: 13.6 (2nd round, 1st pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 13th

Recap: Wayne just simply didn't live up to expectations in 2008. I checked his split stats, wondering if Manning's slow start hurt him, but he posted very similar numbers in both the 1st and 2nd half. His yards and TDs both dropped, and it's possible that teams overloaded on Wayne knowing that Harrison couldn't beat them anymore.

3)Terrell Owens

ADP: 14.2 (2nd round, 2nd pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 9th

Recap: Honestly, this was about worst case scenario. Romo got hurt, and outside of that month (120 yards and 1 TD combined over the 4 games), Owens was his usual beastly self. He was the WR1 you drafted him to be outside of that small stretch of games.

4) Braylon Edwards

ADP: 20.1 (2nd round, 8th pick)

Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 34th

Recap: The risk that didn't pay off. Anderson proved that 2007 was a fluke, and bombed horribly in 2008. Quinn didn't fair that much better. Of course, Edwards brought some of this on himself with a horrendous season filled with dropped passes as well. Simply put, he was a bust.

5) T.J. Houshmandzadeh

ADP: 22.7 (2nd round, 10th pick)

Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 31st

Recap: Palmer got hurt, the Bengals offense tanked, and TJ simply couldn't do much with noodle-armed Fitzpatrick running the 5 yard pass show all year long. Bust.

6) Larry Fitzgerald

ADP: 22.9 (2nd round, 11th pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

Recap: 1st

Recap: Warner made all the difference. Fitzgerald was simply the best WR in football last year, and provided good value to all who took him. Probably could have rated him as undervalued.

7) Andre Johnson

ADP: 23.9 (2nd round, 12th pick)

Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 2nd

Recap: Johnson had a monster 2008 season indeed. No matter the QB, AJ went about his business, torturing defenses all season long. It took longer than expected, but AJ finally has the supporting offensive system to put his tremendous talent to full use.

8) Steve Smith

ADP: 24.8 (3rd round, 1st pick)

Value: Under Valued

2008 Finish: 5th

Recap: 2 game suspension? Pff, who cares. Smitty still tore up defenses all season long, finishing 5th among all WRs despite missing 2 full games.

9) Marques Colston

ADP: 27.1 (3rd round, 3rd pick)

Value: Appropriately Valued

2008 Finish: 36th

Recap: Farking injuries. Colston missed 6 games with a torn finger ligament suffered in week 1, but posted WR1 numbers when he played. Colston is turning into Boldin's little brother with regards to performing like a WR1 on the field, but also carrying a certainty of a few missed games during the season.

10) Chad Johnson

ADP: 29.1 (3rd round, 5th pick)

Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 51st

Overview: CJ seemingly wasn't affected by his labrum injury, although it was hard to tell with the crap offense in Cincy during 2008. Bust.

11) Torry Holt

ADP: 33.4 (3rd round, 9th pick)

Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 41st

Recap: Much like Housh/CJ in Cincy, STL's offense also fell apart, and Holt appeared completely disinterested in playing football. Bust.

12) Wes Welker

ADP: 36.0 (3rd round, 12th pick)

Value: Over Valued

2008 Finish: 21st

Recap: Welker actually posted a fairly solid WR2 season by the numbers, but rarely scored with only 3 TDs, making him more of a rock solid WR3 during 2008. He certainly didn't live up to his draft spot.

WR1 Summary:

Hits: Moss, Edwards, Owens, Housh, Fitzgerald, A. Johnson, Smith, C. Johnson, Welker
Misses: Holt (?), Wayne, Colston

9/3 split, so pretty good. Wayne just didn't live up to expectations, while Colston suffered a 6 week injury which prevented him from reaching his expectations. I marked Holt as over-valued, but labeled him as a solid WR1/2, so I was kinda 50% there depending on what you took closer to heart.