Position ADP Analysis Done, Plus Kicker/Defense Thoughts

Hey All

So I finalized my position analysis last night, concluding with the TE position. I don't feel the need to analyze the kickers and defenses. So many of the quality options at those positions coming off the waiver wire each season, half of the top 12 options at the positions get dumped early on. There's some simply guidelines I follow about both positions.

Kicker: I never, ever take one before the last round. I look for offenses that are set up to have nice seasons, and target one of those kickers. I also generally stay away from teams that play in bad weather during the final month and it definitely impacts a kicker's ability to post fantasy points. Domed kickers are great as well thanks to the environment in which they kick.

Defense: I generally don't take one before the second to last round. It's worth noting who played strong last season, and then analyzing the key additions/subtractions. Another quality way to play it is with weekly matchups. Now weekly defenses are not worth a waiver selection, so never burn your waiver position on a defense. If too many people in your league are doing weekly defensive matchups, then that's another negative as you have to be very quick to grab the best option for the following week. At that point, it's easier to pick a defense that has a favorable schedule and run with them.

The regular season is still over a month away, so there should be some ADP juggling yet to be done, but the ADP snapshot right now will hold pretty steady in the overall sense. The players right now that might move the most are the players of questionable health such as Marvin Harrison and Antonio Gates. I expect Harrison to move up if he proves he's healthy, and I'd expect Gates to move down if he starts becoming more questionable to start the season. I do also expect Jeremy Shockey to move up a bit as more mock drafts take his trade into account. I will update the blog with injuries and acquisitions that will impact players, and if I change my mind on a player, I'll edit the existing entry and then post that there was an edit.

In terms of making this ADP analysis work for myself, I also believe in the tiering system. If you're unfamiliar with tiering, it's grouping players at each position that you feel will perform similar to each other for the upcoming season. That way you can determine where you feel the performances dropoffs are for each position, and then draft accordingly as you build your team. Say you're deciding between a QB and a RB in a particular round. If there is only one QB in his tier left, but there are 5 RBs left in their tier, it would make more sense to choose the QB as you can likely pick up a similar RB the next round. By taking the ADP analysis and applying your own personal preferences, you can group these players together and have a cheat sheet to go off of for your draft.

I'll definitely have some people that will disagree with my reasoning on various players, and that's what makes fantasy football fun. It's never predictable, and nobody is ever right all the time. The important thing is to learn from your mistakes for the following seasons if you see patterns developing. Hopefully my "draft guide" helps you out in some fashion for the upcoming season!